COPUOS Topic - BISMUN Conference 2015

BUCHAREST INTERNATIONAL STUDENT MODEL UNITED NATIONS 2015
World Peace: Modern Day Illusion or Realistic Possibility?
March 25th to 30th, 2015
Palace of Parliament
Bucharest, Romania
Study Guide for the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
Planetary Defence:
Protecting our Planet against Near-Earth Objects
1. Welcome to the conference!
Honourable delegate,
Congratulations on your successful application to the Bucharest International Student Model
United Nations 2015, and welcome to the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space!
We look forward to meeting you at the conference.
Model United Nations are an enriching experience in many ways. While they do offer you the
opportunity to expand your factual knowledge about the UN system, international policymaking and a variety of politically challenging topics, their educational value goes far beyond
that. Ultimately, an MUN conference is a direct implementation of one of the fundamental
goals of the United Nations themselves, as laid out in the preamble of their charter: “practice
tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbours”. Your participation
in BISMUN will encourage you to view today’s crises, problems and challenges in a new
light, both as a result of your own preparation work for your assigned country and due to your
exposure to the diverse and international community that makes up our participants.
We are glad that you have chosen to join us at COPUOS. Its simulation is one of the unique
and defining features of 2015’s BISMUN conference, and constitutes our attempt to highlight
a part of the UN system that is out of the focus of most MUNs.
As your chairpersons, we will not only serve as your moderators during the actual debate, but
also as your assistants during your preparation. Please get in touch with us with any topical
questions you might have, as well as with any other issues that might arise.
We look forward to meeting you in Bucharest!
Tim Wiegmann and Cristina Bocan
Chairpersons
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
1 / 16
2. What is COPUOS? What does it do?
COPUOS, the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, was established by General
Assembly resolution 1472 (XIV)1 in 1959, following the launch of Sputnik, the world’s first
artificial satellite. The prevention of a space-based arms race between the United States and
the Soviet Union was the central focus of its earlier decades, and lead to the creation of several anti-armament treaties, with the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in
the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies2
(Outer Space Treaty) arguably being the most important of them. The treaty, which has been
ratified by all currently space-faring nations, prohibits the use of outer space or celestial bodies for the installation of weapons of mass destruction (although the placement of conventional weaponry was intentionally not banned).
Other treaties prepared by COPUOS in the 1960s and 1970s are the Agreement on the Rescue
of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer
Space3, the Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects 4, the
Convention on Registration of Launched Objects into Outer Space5 and the Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies6. These treaties are
administered and supervised by the Legal Subcommittee of COPUOS, and form the legal basis of present-day international space law.
Today, manned and unmanned spaceflight has become routine for humankind, and with the
end of the Cold War, the major concern of an arms race in outer space has diminished (although not fully disappeared). The attention of COPUOS has therefore expanded, and its
working focus now also includes coordinating and assisting the international space-faring
community in a variety of other issues, such as the problem of space debris, expansion of satellite-based navigation systems and forming a link between spaceflight and the Post-2015
Development Agenda. These affairs are handled by the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee.
Having grown from just 24 member states at its time of foundation to 77 member states today7, COPUOS belongs to the largest UN committees. Member states meet yearly to review
the progress made in its areas of engagement and to decide on a report to be delivered to the
General Assembly for inclusion in a resolution. The committee makes all its decisions on the
basis of consensus.
The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) works both as the supporting
secretariat and as the executive office for COPUOS. It is also responsible for assisting developing nations with the use of space technology.
1
http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/SpaceLaw/gares/html/gares_14_1472.html
http://disarmament.un.org/treaties/t/outer_space
3
http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/SpaceLaw/rescue.html
4
http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/SpaceLaw/liability.html
5
http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/SORegister/regist.html
6
http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/SpaceLaw/moon.html
7
http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/COPUOS/members.html
2
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
2 / 16
3. Threats from space: Near-earth objects and their associated dangers
The earth is under a constant risk of colliding with other celestial bodies. In fact, very small
asteroids with a diameter of only a few millimetres enter the earth’s atmosphere approximately once every hour. These objects disintegrate and burn up during atmospheric entry and
can then be seen as meteors in the sky – they do not actually reach the surface and are therefore mostly harmless (except for a relatively remote danger to aviation).
A larger asteroid with a diameter of a few metres will, upon entry, be seen as a fireball and
fragments can reach the ground. This happens approximately once every year, although it
does not always happen over populated areas and might therefore remain unnoticed by the
general population (or even by astronomers, as the reliability of detection methods decreases
with the size of the approaching object).
The impact of an asteroid with a diameter of 10 metres or above releases enormous amounts
of energy and can therefore have significant consequences.
3.1. How do we know whether an asteroid will strike the earth?
Celestial bodies such as asteroids do not move on random or unpredictable paths. Instead,
they follow an elliptically shaped orbit around the sun. This orbit is mostly static, meaning
that every asteroid moves around the solar system on a determined path (although it will always be subject to minor alterations resulting from the gravitational influences of other celestial bodies). A particular asteroid can therefore only pose an actual danger to the earth if its
orbit intersects with the orbit of the earth and the object is of sufficient size to be dangerous.
Every object that comes closer than 0.3 AU8 to the earth is called a near-earth object. Astronomers can find these objects using radio telescopes, and once an object is found, radar
astronomy can be used to establish the object’s orbital parameters. These then allow to calculate whether (and if yes, when) the asteroid might come close to the earth. Because the orbital
parameters can never be established with absolute certainty, there is always a margin of error
preventing exact predictions about how close the encounter will be and whether earth might
actually be hit. With increasing proximity of the asteroid, the reliability of the encounter prediction increases.
3.2. Do we know about all near-earth objects? How many are there?
There are presently more than 11,000 known near-earth objects of wildly varying sizes, ranging between only a few dozen metres and more than 30 kilometres in diameter. Approximately 1,000 of these objects are bigger than 1 kilometre (and therefore have the potential to,
upon impact, endanger humankind as a whole). It is estimated that about 97 % of near-earth
8
1 AU = 1 Astronomical Unit = 150 million kilometres (the distance between the sun and the earth)
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
3 / 16
objects bigger than 1 kilometre have been found so far, and an effort is made to monitor their
paths continuously.
A majority of near-earth objects is not dangerous, because their orbital parameters will never
bring them close to the earth. However, approximately 1,500 objects are currently classified
as potentially hazardous objects based on the fact that they are bigger than 100 metres in diameter and, during their orbit, have the possibility of approaching the earth closer than 0.05
AU. It is estimated that only 20 to 30 percent of existing potentially hazardous objects have
been discovered so far.
3.3. How likely are asteroid impacts? How dangerous are they?
Asteroids above a certain size have the potential to cause non-negligible consequences.
Although the impact of an asteroid with a diameter of approximately 10 metres will cause a
big fireball to appear in the sky, the more significant danger comes from the sonic shockwave
created during entry. This shockwave (similar to the “sonic boom” created by a supersonic
aircraft, but far more intense) can break glass, damage or destroy buildings and knock over
objects such as cars, trees or lampposts. If fragments actually strike populated areas, loss of
human life is likely. A secondary danger comes from fear and mass panic following the impact, especially if not handled properly by local authorities. Asteroids of this size will impact
the earth approximately every 10 years.
Asteroids with a size of about 50 metres already cause an explosion comparable to a nuclear
weapon, and would therefore have a devastating effect on metropolitan areas with significant
loss of life. Their impact frequency is estimated to be around one event per 500 years.
If earth were to be struck by an asteroid of 100 metres, complete destruction on a regional
level is certain in the case of an impact on land. On the other hand, a water impact would lead
to a tsunami with similarly grave consequences. It is estimated that such impacts could happen with an interval of 10,000 years, although none has so far been recorded by human civilisation.
Even larger asteroids (500 metres or above) would cause devastation on continental scales,
with millions of victims and global effects on planetary conditions. Such impacts statistically
only happen once every 500,000 years. It is estimated that impacts of asteroids bigger than 10
kilometres in diameter (yearly chance 1 / 100,000,000) would not be survivable by humankind. Of course, these probabilities are only the result of statistical calculations, with questionable value for actual decision making.
3.4. Examples of recent asteroid impacts
On a geological timescale, the history of our planet has likely been influenced by several severe impact events. A popular example is the extinction of the dinosaurs, which could be attributed to the impact of an asteroid with a diameter of multiple kilometres. However, there
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
4 / 16
are also examples of significant impact events in very recent history, proving that that the
threat of asteroid impacts is not at all negligible.
On 30 June 1908, an asteroid with an estimated diameter between 50 and 200 metres collided
with the earth in
, Russia. With an explosion energy of approximately 15
megatons of TNT (which is comparable to the most powerful nuclear weapons ever tested), it
marked the largest asteroid impact event of recorded history. While the Tunguska event
caused an earthquake with a strength of 5.0 on the Richter scale and flattened about 2,000 km
of forest, causing material damage to an estimated 80 million trees, no loss of human life was
reported. This is a consequence of the extremely remote character of the impact location, as a
comparable explosion over populated areas would be very unlikely to go without death toll.
Significant media attention was caught by the impact of the Chelyabinsk meteor in
Чел б
, Russia, on 15 February 2013. While no deaths were recorded as a consequence of
the impact of the 20-metre asteroid, around 1,500 people sustained injuries due to secondary
effects. In particular, the sonic shock wave projected onto the ground by the asteroid (travelling at 20 kilometres per second) caused glass planes in the whole city area to shatter and
thereby injure bystanders. A smaller number of skin and eye injuries was reported as a consequence of the highly intense fireball. The material damage caused by the explosion included a
collapsed factory roof and damage to more than 7,000 residential structures. It is also of note
that with sub-zero temperatures, a major and immediate challenge for local authorities was
ensuring the continued operation of the municipal central heating system, and finding suitable
shelter for the inhabitants of homes with severe structural damage. This highlights the fact
that an asteroid impact over built-up areas requires civil defence responses comparable to
other major natural disasters.
3.5. Possibilities for detection and early warning
Asteroid impacts can come completely without warning, as in the case of the abovementioned
Chelyabinsk meteor (which was not detected by any of the active monitoring projects). However, the larger a potentially hazardous object is, the more likely it becomes that it can be detected in advance and that predictions can be made regarding impact time and location.
Assuming favourable conditions, the guaranteed impact of an object with the size of the
Chelyabinsk meteor could probably be announced 10 to 14 days in advance. This early, predictions for the impact location will still be very inaccurate (spanning several countries), although the time of impact can already be calculated with single-minute accuracy.
Because the object travels at very high forward speeds, both the area of possible impact and
the predicted scatter field (where smaller, broken-off fragments of the asteroid could crash)
will have the shape of a very long and narrow ellipsis. Approximately one week before impact, such a predicted impact corridor could probably be announced with dimensions 50 km *
1 km. Coming closer to the impact, future improvements of these predictions are unlikely.
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
5 / 16
4. Historical and present efforts for planetary defence
Efforts to find and track potentially hazardous objects are undertaken by a variety of institutes
and organisations. The United States of America are by far the most active contributor to the
detection and monitoring of near-earth objects.
4.1. Spaceguard and other government mandates for NEO detection and tracking
Following a debate in the US Congress, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA) has been tasked in 1998 to, within ten years, find and register 90 percent of all nearearth objects with a diameter of one kilometre and above (i.e. objects capable of presenting a
threat to civilisation as a whole). This congressional mandate marked the beginning of a concentrated and ongoing effort to find dangerous asteroids. In the years before, although asteroids “randomly” found by astronomers were taken note of, no programmes were specifically
dedicated to their detection.
It is estimated that humankind is currently aware of approximately 97 percent of objects
specified in the 1998 congressional mandate, therefore even surpassing the original goal.
However, much work needs to be done regarding asteroids of smaller sizes (100 metres to 1
kilometre), which would still be capable of causing large-scale regional disasters upon impact.
New objects of this kind are found regularly and frequently, and it is difficult to say how
many of them still remain to be discovered.
The term Spaceguard is used to refer to humankind’s collective effort of near-earth object
detection and tracking, irrespective of the identity and association of the entity actually performing the monitoring. It is to be noted, however, that the overwhelming majority of NEO
detection work is currently undertaken and funded by governmental institutions of the United
States, specifically NASA and the US Air Force.
From 1998 until 2004, the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR) project, a
colleboration between the US Air Force and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),
was the main carrier of the US NEO observation programme. With almost 200 near-earth objects found per year, LINEAR provided the vast majority of new NEO discoveries until 2004.
From 2004 onwards, the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) has been the most active contributor to
the effort of near-earth object detection. The project, funded by the University of Arizona, has
been responsible for the discovery of several hundred previously unknown asteroids per year,
far surpassing all other programmes.
A recent project under the name of Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System
(Pan-STARRS), a co-operation between the University of Hawaii, MIT and the US Air Force,
has been setup on Hawaii in 2008. Funding for the construction of the new telescopes (approximately 100 million US dollars) has been provided by the US Air Force. Pan-STARRS
uses observation techniques that are different from previous projects, and it is hoped that the
telescope array will be able to provide better capacities regarding the detection of smaller objects that CSS is currently unable to find.
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
6 / 16
It is to be noted that the act of merely finding a near-earth object is not sufficient. In order to
determine whether the object can actually be dangerous for earth (i.e. whether it needs to be
classified as a potentially hazardous object), it is imperative to establish the orbital parameters
of the asteroid, requiring continuous monitoring over a prolonged period of time.
Asteroids that are once found to be potentially hazardous will keep this status forever. Orbital
mechanics dictate that the asteroid will intersect the earth’s orbit at regular intervals (i.e. once
every x years, with x specific for the object in question). Because an asteroid’s flight parameters are not completely stable, a re-evaluation of its orbital parameters will need to take place
for every orbit intersection event. As it is not possible to keep continuous track of an asteroid
with earth-based telescopes, this implies the need to first re-discover the asteroid every time
an intersection event comes close.
For these reasons, the search for new and the tracking of known near-earth objects is a neverending effort, and will never be able to be marked as complete. This puts further weight on
the issue that almost all of the associated work is currently carried out and funded by the
United States. On the other hand, sky surveys such as LINEAR, CSS and Pan-STARRS usually also yield research benefits for their operators.
4.2. Influence of non-governmental organisations
Because of the high financial requirement for the construction and operation of telescopes
capable of assisting the currently ongoing NEO observation programmes, NGO contribution
to sky surveying is rather negligible. However, NGOs have played a significant role in actually establishing planetary defence on governmental agendas, and also continue to push the
issue within the international community.
The Association of Space Explorers (ASE), which also has observer status with COPUOS,
has repeatedly called for increased international effort and co-operation in planetary defence,
and found significant media attention with their corresponding open letter9 from 2005, where
they offered support to national and international organisations involved with the topic. ASE
also advises COPUOS on the topic of planetary defence.
Another prominent non-governmental actor is the B612 Foundation. It currently preparing the
launch of the Sentinel Space Telescope in 2018, a space-based telescope dedicated to NEO
detection that would orbit the sun on a Venus-like orbit. Such a telescope would provide a
tremendously increased detection scope, as it would be able to see objects that are not visible
for earth-based telescopes because they are obstructed by the sun (as it was the case with the
2013 Chelyabinsk meteor). Actual launch capability on the advertised date, however, depends
on the successful completion of fundraising.
9
http://www.13april2036.de/Open_Letter.pdf
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
7 / 16
4.3. Humankind’s capabilities of avoiding a predicted impact
In addition to the detection and tracking of dangerous near-earth objects, the term Planetary
Defence also refers to efforts undertaken to actually avoid a predicted asteroid impact or, at
least, to mitigate the dangers from it.
Although research is ongoing, humankind currently does not have the means to prevent
the impact of an asteroid of any size. It is important to note that this does not render the
efforts to discover and track potentially hazardous objects useless. In the case of smaller asteroids, an in-advance discovery would still allow for predictions regarding the time and location of the impact, which has a variety of benefits.
In particular, an advance notice would permit authorities to take adequate protective measures
for the expected impact. Such measures would reasonably include providing the affected
population and media representatives with detailed information regarding the event and with
advice on safe behaviour. It would also include preparing a disaster response plan for civil
defence services, and having adequate personnel on standby for the impact event. Depending
on how early an impact warning is given, enough time might even be available to conduct
necessary evacuations.
While these measures can help to reduce or even completely avoid loss of life or injuries during a small impact event, they are not capable of protecting humankind against asteroids large
enough to cause regional or global disasters.
4.4. Suggestions for a planetary defence system
Defence against a cosmic collision could be provided either by destroying the dangerous object or by altering its flight path so that it no longer intersects with the earth orbit.
In a 2007 NASA report to the US congress10, a strategy called Kinetic Impactor Deflection
was suggested to be the most reasonable option for defending earth from a dangerous asteroid
on a collision course. If a fast-travelling spacecraft is made to collide with the asteroid, its
momentum will change as a result of the collision, thereby altering the asteroid’s orbital parameters and probably causing it to miss earth. Previous space missions such as the Deep Impact probe from 2005 show that it is already possible with current technology to launch a
space probe in such a way that the collision with even a quite small celestial body can be
guaranteed (although Deep Impact was not a case study for planetary defence). A problematic
downside of the Kinetic Impactor Deflection are its technical limitations – the space probe’s
impact could potentially not deliver enough energy to cause a sufficient change to momentum
for very large asteroids.
The idea of using nuclear explosions as defence against an incoming asteroid has been around
in science-fiction for a long time. Contrary to popular belief, the goal of such an explosion
would not be to fracture or vaporise the entire asteroid. In fact, fracturing is undesired because
10
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/171331main_NEO_report_march07.pdf
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
8 / 16
it would lead to the formation of a great number of new (just slightly smaller) PHOs which
would then have to be tracked, and even a nuclear explosion could not deliver enough energy
to completely vaporise the entire object. Instead, the release of neutrons and X-ray radiation
from the nuclear detonation would make only the asteroid’s immediate surface heat up and
vaporise, causing the asteroid to leave behind a trail of ejecta, similar to the exhaust trail of a
rocket. The loss of mass from this ejecta would induce a sufficient change in momentum to
cause the asteroid to miss earth.
The obvious advantage of deflection by nuclear explosion is that it could protect against far
larger asteroids than a non-nuclear kinetic impactor would be able to handle. For asteroids
even exceeding this scope, a series of two or more nuclear explosions could be used to induce
the required momentum change. The necessary explosion energy also inversely scales with
how much time is available for the mission. If a hazardous asteroid is detected very early, far
less energy is required for its deflection than in the case of a late discovery.
There are no experiences with nuclear-based deflection strategies, and no major space agency
is currently considering test missions for them. Compared to non-nuclear impactors, the associated risk is enormous, as the consequences of a launch failure of a rocket carrying such a
powerful nuclear warhead would be devastating. There is also a great number of legal problems to consider, as the launch of nuclear weapons into space is banned by several UN treaties. Both the Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapons in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and under
Water11 and the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and
Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies12 forbid launching a nuclear weapon into outer space or detonating it there. Additionally, even just the development
of a nuclear-based deflection device could easily be constructed as a violation of the Treaty on
the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.13 The required re-negotiation of these treaties
would be an enormously challenging task for the entire United Nations system and could take
a very long time to complete.
Another strategy potentially worth evaluation is the Gravity Tractor, with the idea being to
have a small spacecraft fly parallel to an asteroid for such a long time that just their gravitational attraction would be enough to pull the asteroid off course. This approach has far fewer
risks compared to the employment of nuclear weapons. However, depending on the size of the
asteroid, deflection by gravity alone could require many years or even decades, and presentday NEO observation techniques are unable to provide such an early warning for the majority
of potentially hazardous objects.
The European Space Agency is conducting research on planetary defence in a programme
called NEOShield, although the project’s scope is currently limited to the theoretical evaluation of available deflection techniques.
11
http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/pdf/Partial_Ban_Treaty.pdf
http://disarmament.un.org/treaties/t/outer_space
13
http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPT.shtml
12
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
9 / 16
5. United Nations initiatives and structures for planetary defence
The United Nations officially established a focus on near-earth objects in July 1999, when the
Third United Nations Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
(UNISPACE III) recommended in their report A/CONF.184/614 to improve international coordination activities regarding NEOs. In A/56/2015, its 2001 session report, COPUOS followed this recommendation and created the Action Team on Near-Earth Objects, also referred
to under the designation of Action Team 14 (AT14).
AT14 worked irregularly over the next years, meeting at the sidelines of a variety of other
COPUOS meetings and conferences and working informally in-between. As a result of its
work, it was decided by COPUOS that a multi-year working plan on NEOs should be adopted
with the intention of reviewing the current progress of international co-operation regarding
NEO observation and to facilitate international capacity building regarding the exchange of
data and the development of protection and reaction procedures against NEOs. The General
Assembly approved this working plan during its 2006 session in A/RES/61/111.16
After six years of work, the working group concluded in 2013 with a final report
A/AC.105/C.1/L.32917, in which they recommended the creation of an International Asteroid
Warning Network (IAWN) and a Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). They
also originally recommended the creation of an Impact Disaster Planning Advisory Group,
although this idea was later postponed. The Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of
COPUOS endorsed these recommendations during their February 2013 session in
A/AC.105/103818, and COPUOS itself endorsed them during the June 2013 committee session in A/68/20.19 The creation of IAWN and SMPAG was finally approved by the General
Assembly in A/RES/68/7520, thereby making IAWN and SMPAG the two most important
cornerstones in the current UN attempt for a better international level of co-operation against
the threat posed by NEOs.
5.1. International Asteroid Warning Network
The International Asteroid Warning Network is dedicated to the discovery of potentially hazardous objects and to the identification of those objects requiring intervening action. IAWN is
not intended to be a newly created research institute – instead, it is supposed to be a network
of already existing actors in the field of NEO observation. IAWN also strives to act as an international coordination service for processing alerts about hazardous objects. Furthermore,
the goals of IAWN include the development and the standardisation of criteria for threat clas-
14
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/reports/unispace/ACONF184_6E.pdf
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/gadocs/A_56_20E.pdf
16
http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/61/111&Lang=E
17
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/limited/c1/AC105_C1_L329E.pdf
18
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/reports/ac105/AC105_1038E.pdf
19
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/gadocs/A_68_20E.pdf
20
http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/68/75
15
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
10 / 16
sification, and assisting governments and authorities with the development of impact response
plans.
The IAWN operates independent of and at no cost for the United Nations, but reports yearly
to COPOUS. While it is a decentralised network of experts and relevant organisations, its
operations are coordinated by a steering committee currently comprised of one representative
from each of ten major participants.
An essential participant in the IAWN is the Minor Planet Center (MPC), located at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory and funded by NASA. It already exists since 1947 and is
the world’s most important centre for the collection and distribution of asteroid data. As of
2012, research organisations from 46 different countries stream observation data to the MPC.
Operations at MPC are, by now, highly automated, and new data from sky surveys can rapidly
be evaluated for possible asteroid threats. If such a threat is detected, NASA is immediately
notified. As the MPC operates on a governmental mandate, its data is also freely accessible to
the general public via a web-based interface.
The various sky survey projects feeding data to the MPC are the second essential element of
the IAWN. All major sky surveys operating today are part of this network, most importantly
including CSS and Pan-STARRS.
Since the IAWN is still very new, only few meetings have taken place so far. A first meeting
of the IAWN steering committee took place in January 2014, with key findings of the meeting
made available publicly.21 Most importantly, the steering committee took note of the need to
encourage a higher level of participation in the IAWN. In particular, space agencies from major space-faring nations such as Russia and Japan do not participate in IAWN yet. It was also
agreed to make the establishment of a standardised set of asteroid characterisation criteria
(e.g. referring to detection thresholds and risk classifications) an immediate priority. Other
areas of interest include increasing co-ordination and co-operation between sky surveys and
acquiring new resources for NEO observation. A particular need was identified for the southern hemisphere, where detection capability is currently sparse.
The IAWN has also started focussing on acquiring knowledge and capacities regarding the
communication of asteroid impact warnings and mitigation plans, and a corresponding workshop has taken place at the request and for the benefit of IAWN members in September 2014.
5.2. Space Mission Planning Advisory Group
The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group is comprised of voluntary representatives of
space-faring nations, in addition to technical experts and potentially other relevant entities. As
with the IAWN, it operates as an entity independent from the UN. Meetings are proposed to
take place once every year, and reports are sent to COPUOS on a yearly schedule as well. As
of June 2014, seventeen nations are represented in the SMPAG either directly or via their respective national or multinational space agencies, and the IAWN participates in SMPAG ex21
http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/IAWN/2014_cambridge/findings.html
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
11 / 16
officio. The European Space Agency (ESA) has been elected to serve as the chair of the
group.
The defined goal of the SMPAG is to aid in the preparation of an international response to
potential NEO threats. This goal shall be achieved by exchanging information and by developing options for international collaboration regarding research and mission planning.
So far, the SMPAG has met twice (in February and in June 2014), with two major activities
conducted during these meetings. First, Terms of Reference (ToR) have been established for
SMPAG22, outlining the purpose, scope and rationale of the group as well as defining a more
specific set of rules regarding membership, the organisational structure, the organisation of
meetings and the tasks and responsibilities of the steering committee. In the ToR, participants
also agreed about how data, findings and reports of the group should be released.
The second focus of the early meetings was the exchange and dissemination of information
regarding activities already undertaken by the group’s various participants in the field of
space mission planning for NEO defence. In particular, the space agencies of the United
States (NASA), Russia (Roskosmos), Europe (ESA), Japan (JAXA) and Germany (DLR) informed the groups about current plans within their organisations.
6. Points you should address at the conference
From the perspective of the United Nations, the most immediate challenge in the field of
planetary defence is the establishment of the International Asteroid Warning Network and the
Space Mission Planning Advisory Group as accepted and capable forums for the space-faring
community. In the medium to long term, the burning question of acquiring the technical
means for actual NEO impact avoidance will need to be addressed, as well as associated procedural and legal questions.
This section aims to provide you as a delegate with some ideas on potential questions and
issues to discuss during the conference. It is not meant to be exhaustive.
6.1. Questions regarding the establishment of IAWN and SMPAG
(1) Is the current speed at which IAWN and SMPAG are being established by their respective steering committees satisfactory for COPUOS? If not, how can the process
be sped up? Are there any recommendations COPUOS should make to the steering
committees?
(2) How can COPUOS encourage a higher level of participation in SMPAG and particularly in IAWN? Are there any entities the respective steering committees should
approach?
22
http://www.cosmos.esa.int/documents/336356/336472/SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0163_1_0_SMPAG_ToR_201402-06.pptx/06c1e7e4-3497-46d9-ad14-b7bfb2327799
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
12 / 16
(3) What kind of benefits can civil society, non-governmental organisations and private
corporations provide to IAWN and SMPAG? How can they be included?
(4) Is COPUOS satisfied with the agendas set by IAWN and SMPAG thus far?
(5) In general, how does COPUOS rate the progress regarding the implementation of
the recommendations laid out in A/AC.105/C.1/L.329?
6.2. Questions regarding NEO observation and impact avoidance
(6) Most experts agree that the currently available sky-searching capacity is sufficient
for larger asteroids, but that there is a lack of observation capacity regarding smaller
impactors. How can COPUOS encourage a higher availability of ground-based telescopes specially dedicated to small and imminent impactors? Which countries have
suitable facilities available, and how can they be motivated to dedicate these facilities to NEO observation?
(7) How can existing sky-survey projects be encouraged to increase their level of cooperation and co-ordination, so as to avoid double efforts and to promote maximum
collaborative use of existing telescopes?
(8) There is a particular lack of observation capacity in the southern hemisphere. How
can COPUOS contribute to rectifying this?
(9) The greatest part of NEO observation is currently funded by the United States. Does
COPUOS consider this problematic?
(10) There are many potentially hazardous objects that can only be properly observed
from space (such as the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor, which no earth-based telescope
could detect). However, there is currently no space-based NEO survey available,
with the only reasonably promising project being a private organisation still in the
process of raising funds. How can COPUOS contribute to making such space-based
survey capacity rapidly available?
(11) There is currently very little international co-operation regarding communication
and public relations with respect to potential asteroid impacts. Can IAWN properly
fill this role? If so, how?
(12) Many space agencies are developing plans for space missions for deflecting threatening NEOs. SMPAG is collecting reports of their activities, but is currently not
working as an active facilitator or co-ordinator. How can SMPAG strengthen its coordination role in an attempt to maximise common gain from the distributed research
efforts?
(13) There are many proposed techniques for NEO deflection, both competing with and
complementing each other. Should COPUOS attempt to officially endorse one or
several of these techniques? What would be the desired consequences of such an endorsement?
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
13 / 16
(14) How does COPUOS view the progress achieved thus far regarding the development
of NEO deflection capability? Should COPUOS create an official goal, e.g. acquiring a specified technical capability within a specific timeframe? If such a goal were
to be created, how could SMPAG member organisations be encouraged to contribute? How would the SMPAG steering committee undertake the administration and
co-ordination of such targeted efforts?
6.3. Procedural and legal questions
(15) Nuclear-based detonations are among the most commonly suggested techniques for
NEO deflection, but many experts believe the use of nuclear devices in space to be
interdicted in the current framework of international space law. Does COPUOS share
this opinion? Is a revision of treaties such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or the
Outer Space Treaty necessary?
(16) If deemed to be required, the revision of nuclear treaties affected by nuclear-based
NEO deflection techniques is a great undertaking for the entire United Nations system. In which way would COPUOS initiate and participate in such a process?
(17) Should humankind one day achieve the capability to deflect threatening NEOs, the
need for an international treaty regulating rights and obligations regarding the use of
these instruments could quickly arise. If only Nation A has the capacity to launch an
NEO deflection mission, would A be required to launch such a mission against an
impact that is predicted to only affect Nation B’s territory? While it is probably unwise for COPUOS to craft such a treaty in a single session, delegates could attempt
to find some agreements on cornerstones for upcoming negotiations.
7. Further reading
We recommend that you study the following resources thoroughly. While this study guide
aims to provide you with an overview of the topic, it alone is likely not sufficient to provide
you with the level of topical familiarity that is required for you in order to meaningfully contribute to the debate. Please remember that an MUN session is most fun if everyone is knowledgeable on the topic of discussion!
7.1. Official websites
Official website of COPUOS, also including a portal on near-earth objects:
http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/COPUOS/copuos.html
Website of the International Asteroid Warning Network hosted at the MPC:
http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/IAWN/
Website of the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group hosted by ESA:
http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/smpag
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
14 / 16
7.2. Non-governmental actors
B612 foundation (private endeavour to set up a space-based telescope):
http://sentinelmission.org/
7.3. Topical information
Introduction to planetary defence at Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_impact_avoidance
NASA portal for NEO observation, including links to relevant sky surveys:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/index.html
A fictional scenario of an asteroid impact as presented by GERHARD DROLSHAGEN
and DETLEF KOSCHNY (both DLR):
http://www.cosmos.esa.int/documents/336356/336472/SSA-NEO-ESA-HO0164_1_0_Reference_impact_scenario_SMPAG_2014-02-06.ppt/6f3e9528-2ce94a19-b859-80451ed443c7
7.4. Relevant UN resolutions
Relevant resolutions have been linked in footnotes when mentioned in the study
guide.
7.5. AT14 recommendations on near-earth objects
Presentation by SERGIO CAMACHO, chair of AT14, on recommendations for an international response to the NEO impact threat:
http://www.cosmos.esa.int/documents/336356/336472/Action+Team+14+and+UN
+recommendations+on+NEO+threat-+S+Camacho+-+Final.pptx/cce68db5-83e34607-9850-b9351020e522
OOSA press hand-out regarding the AT14 recommendations:
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/misc/2013/at-14/at14-handoutE.pdf
Presentation given by IAWN ad-hoc steering committee members LINDLEY JOHNSON and DETLEF KOSCHNY on the structure and immediate tasks and challenges for
the IAWN and the SMPAG:
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/pres/stsc2013/2013neo-04E.pdf
7.6. IAWN working material
Presentation by TIMOTHY SPAHR (MPC director) about the IAWN:
http://www.unoosa.org/pdf/pres/stsc2013/2013neo-02E.pdf
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
15 / 16
Working material for the first steering committee session of the IAWN:
http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/IAWN/2014_cambridge/index.html
7.7. SMPAG working material
Working material for the two past steering committee sessions are easily retrievable on the official website linked above.
Project website of NEOShield, the European Union’s NEO defence programme:
http://www.neoshield.net/en/index.htm
8. Authorship and version information
This document has last been revised Thursday, 22 January 2015. This version is the original
release.
Created by TIM WIEGMANN23 with all rights reserved. Non-exclusive distribution permission
for this document is granted to the UN Youth Association of Romania for the purposes of
organising BISMUN 2015.
23
mailto:tim.wiegmann@unyanet.org
BISMUN 2015: COPUOS Topic Introduction
16 / 16