A look: Past, Present & Future

A look: Past, Present
& Future
Camilo Barrios,
Lizeth Llanos,
Diego Obando
Diana Giraldo
d.giraldo@cgiar.org
Led by:
Supported:
Liderado por
IFPRI
BIOVERSITY
ICARDA
CIMMYT
CIAT
CIP
AFRICARICE
IITA
ICRISAT
ICRAF
ILRI
IWMI
IRRI
WORLDFISH
CIFOR
Whilst in other regions of the world there are a range of initiatives related to agro-climatic
forecasting, there is a big gap in Latin America, which provides a tremendous opportunity
for contribution with a targeted and well-integrated initiative to change in agro-climatic risk
management, the elaboration of public policies in decision-making and programmatic
support (based on historical analysis, monitoring systems and agro-climatic forecasts)
using state-of-the-art approaches.
Don Luis Fonseca is a dedicated farmer of
Maize in the department of Cundinamarca in
Colombia. Don Luis said that in the first half of
2013 lost 90% of the expected production by
reduction in traditional rainfall.
Following this, he and other farmers decided not to try
planting in the second half. However, they did not know
that weather conditions would be optimal for production
in the second half!. Now, Don Luis believes that if he and
his fellow farmers have earlier information on the
possible climate conditions in your region in the coming
months and how their crops might respond to these
conditions, would be more successful in their farming.
Relationship between annual
anomalies (max temp) and
rice yield in Colombia
1. learn from the past:
Liderado por
RClimTool (GUI under R language)
was designed with the
aim of facilitating users in statistical
analysis.
Figure 1. RClimTool Modules, has been downloaded
168 times since from all around the world its launch in
March 2014.
2. Climate prediction system: CPT Tool
Liderado por
In Colombia since 2014 was elaborated climate forecasts (1 to 6 months), based on
Canonical Correlation Analysis - CCA (Figure 4) using different predictors as sea
surface temperatures (SST), among others. Precipitation, maximum and minimum
temperatures were used as predictand field with 114 meteorological stations with
records from 1980-2013.
Select the best planting date,
as a preventive measure.
Decreased monthly rainfall
Increased monthly temperatures and
solar radiation
If farmers make the decision to plant until
June 20, the yield obtained can be around
4500 kg/ha.
If the crop sowings are delayed, yields
will decrease.
"This weather so strange,
I don't know which variety
to plant"
In addition to
know when
sow, You can
also know the
best cultivar to
sow!
If farmers decide to sown after June 15, the best choice will be
the variety Fedearroz 733.
Fedearroz 733: 6860 kg/ha PS
Fedearroz 60: 4600 kg/ha PS
Generating new knowledge
at the service of farmers
Knowledge transfer to extension service
of rice producers’ association in Colombia.
Knowledge transfer to farmers
Next step…AGROCLIMAS
Mapping networks: Information flows and decisionmaking cycles understand demand and gaps
Historical data: Learn from the past- climate
reconstruction, combine observations with satellite data
Food Security indicators: household surveys, tracking of
climate risk - Grameen Progress out of Poverty Index and
gender-sensitive
Map Rooms: Web site- regional observatory with agro-climatic
data, tailored for specific users and updated
Agro-Climatic Forecasts: Provide relevant future informationsentinel site network, combined with local information.
Dissemination mechanisms: Innovative “formats” of
products, “translating” climate into agronomically relevant
information
www.ccafs.cgiar.org
http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/