THE MORNING BENCHMARK - Customer Zone

THE MORNING BENCHMARK
PRODUCED BY REUTERS, TRADEWEB AND IFR MARKETS
Thursday, April 23, 2015
EURO ZONE BUSINESS SURVEYS
MORNING MEETING FROM IFR
Click on the chart for full-size image
DATA
• 08:30 Jobless Claims (Apr 18 wk) (mkt 290k, prev 294k)
• 08:30 -- Continued Claims (Apr 11 wk) (mkt 2.300 mln , prev
2.268 mln)
• 09:45 Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash Apr) (mkt 55.5, prev
55.7)
• 10:00 New Home Sales (Mar) (mkt 513k SAAR, prev 539k
SAAR)
• 11:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Production Index (Apr)
(prev -2)
• 11:00 Kansas City Fed Composite Index (Apr) (prev -4)
EVENTS
• 09:15 Federal Reserve Division of Banking Supervision and
Regulation Deputy Director Hunter testifies on community bank
regulations before the House Financial Services subcommittee
on financial institutions and consumer credit; Washington, DC
• 14:00 Senate Finance Committee holds hearings on Treasury
nominations (Deputy Under Secretary and CFO)
TOP NEWS
 Europe, China business activity disappoint in April
 UK's Osborne avoids deficit slip-up, retail sales fall
 Greek cash seen lasting into June, no EU deal imminent
 ECB's Praet urges countries to reform for recovery to last
 U.S. home sales vault to 18-month high as supply improves
 Germany's private sector expands less than expected in April
INSIGHT
Part-time 'slack' may be nearing its end as Fed debates
hike
U.S. part-time employment is fast-approaching levels common
since the 1970s in a sign that a key part of labor market slack
may be almost gone, giving the Fed one less reason to delay
hiking interest rates frozen near zero for more than six years.
Central bankers watch the part-time figures as a measure of
labor market health. While current part-time numbers remain
high compared to the hot job markets of the 1990s and early
2000s, they are closing in on the longer term average.
A ReutersIpsos online poll found a potentially modest gap between the hours workers want and what they can find. More
than a third of those working fewer than 30 hours a week and
asked how much they wanted to work for the same hourly rate
were satisfied with their current hours or wanted to work less.
While others wanted more hours, only 23 percent said they
wanted to commit to a traditional 40-hour week.
Among those working more than 30 hours a week, there was a
significant desire to scale back almost a fourth of that group
said they wanted to work between one and 18 fewer hours
ISSUANCE
• 11:00 Treasury announces 3- and 6-month bills (e: $24/24 bln)
and 52-week bills (e: $25 bln)
• 11:00 Treasury announces 2-, 5- and 7-year notes (e:
$26/35/29 bln)
• 13:00 Treasury auctions $18 bln new 5-year TIPS
MARKET BIAS
• The tactical bias is that of a defensive range trader as a lightly
supported market appears as ill equipped for next week’s treasury coupon supply.
• Look for a 2.00%-to-1.94% range in 10s favoring the selling of
strength.
• The strategic bias is flat, though will look to sell a 50% position
in the 7-year at 1.70% if hit.
• The curve bias entered a 5s/30s flattener at 125 bps as a setup trade for next week’s intermediate-dated treasury supply
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
Cash Support and Resistance
5-year 10-year
Resistance 1.35% 1.94%
Support
1.43% 2.01%
Best Trade: 10-Year Dec Contract
Position Entry
Stop
Exit
Buy
128-26
3/32
129-080
Reason: Trade can rebound to test recent range lows
For more, click here
For more, click here
For more stories from IFR Markets
For more market data
 Market Preview, click here
 MBS Volume Summary, click here
 Tradeweb Markets update, click here
 Thomson Reuters CDS Biggest Movers, click here
 Thomson Reuters Loan & Bonds movers, click here
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
April 23, 2015
MORNING MEETING FROM IFR
(continued)
OVERNIGHT TREASURIES
• Bonds higher and flatter amid better buying after Wednesday’s
slide
• Bunds lead bounce, 10s/Bunds widens a little more to +181.3
bps on Tradeweb
• Bits of better buying overall from Japan, Asia, Europe
• Good volume, 175k 10-year futures trade by 06:25 EST
• June 10s mark 129-02/128-25 range, last at 129-00.5
GILTS
• Gilts bounce after 119.19 low Wednesday
• Weak retail sales helps briefly
• Gilts weak under 119.95/120.00
• 10yr capped by 1.72% former Fibo
• 2s/10s breaking up through 116bp region
• 10yr UK/Germany struggles to advance further
• SSTG curve flatter after opening bear steepening extension
OVERNIGHT NEWS RECAP
• European remain choppy with influences wide and varied
• Greece restructuring proposals due at Eurogroup meeting Friday
• Eurogroup set to discuss migrant problem
• China April PMI overnight 49.2 vs 49.6 exp stabilizes FI
• Brent crude sideways after recent correction
• Spanish unemployment 23.78% in Q1 vs 23.60%
• UK retail sales 0.5% m/m (exp 0.4%) ex fuel 0.2% m/m (exp
0.4%)
• UK PSNB 6.741bn (exp 7.000bn)
• French mfg PMI 48.4 vs exp 49.2, German 51.9 vs exp 53.0,
EUR 51.9 vs exp 52.6
• French serv PMI 50.8 vs exp 52.5, German 54.4 vs exp 55.5,
EUR 53.7 vs exp 54.5
RATES SNAPSHOT
OVERSEAS SOVEREIGNS
JGBs
• 10-yr (#338) +1bp at 0.31% (0.305%-0.315); 2-yr (#351) flat at
-0.005%
• 10-yr June JGB futures: -0.08 at 147.95 (147.89-148.02)
(Volume: 22,075)
• 5s +0.5bp (0.07%), 20s +0.5bp (1.07%), 30s +1.5bp(1.31%),
40s(#7) +1.5bp
• Yields on new 40s (#8) briefly fall from 1.484% to 1.455% after
tepid auction
• JGB players widely expect BoJ to buy S/L JGBs tomorrow,
including new 40s
• JGB prices ended the day slightly lower, sending yields up
0.5bp to 1.5bp from yesterday.
Dow Futures -51, S&P Futures -5
EGBs
• Bunds bounce after 159.11 low Wednesday
• Poor under 159.82 breakdown
• Greece tries to extend rally after correction this week
• Peripheral rally stalls after big day yesterday
• 5s/30s Germany marginally flatter
• 5s/30s Italy held by 172bp then 182bp
• Portugal places 3.125bn Feb 2024s and 875.8mn Feb 2030s
in debt swap
• EUR/USD modestly higher, tight range persists
• EUR stocks typically lower EUROSTOXX 50E down 1%
• Brent sideways after rally Wednesday
• Copper briefly under mid month lows
John.ratcliffe@thomsonreuters.com
10-yr
Current Yield Spread to Trsy (bps)
US
1.956%
JGB
0.310%
-165
BUND
0.144%
-181.5
GILTS
1.693%
-26.5
data supplied by Tradeweb
EQUITY RECAP
NIKKEI 225 20187.65, +53.75
NIKKEI consolidates gain above 20k after 15 yr wait
DAX 11758 -106 FTSE 100 7039, +11
FTSE gains as others retreat
FX SNAPSHOT
USD/JPY 120.01 EUR/USD 1.0742
COMMODITY SNAPSHOT
Gold $1189 +$2, Oil $55.97, -$0.20
SPREAD PRODUCT OUTLOOK
MORTGAGES
• 30yr FNMA CC 2.69%; +63/10yr swaps. +70/10yr note,
+99/5&10yr blend
• Rising yields attract buyers, many moving UIC as a result
• Modest fade, upper 4s and 4.5s away from any rates rally
2
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
April 23, 2015
INSIGHT
(continued)
each week. (Graphic httplink.reuters.comtyb64w)
With the jobless rate of 5.5 percent near pre-crisis levels, Fed
policymakers are studying other aspects of the labor market as
they weigh whether to raise rates in June or wait for more evidence of an improving economy.
Government labor surveys show the share of employees who
say they want to work full time but could only find part-time work
was 4.5 percent in March, down from 6.5 percent at the end of
the recession in 2009 and approaching the average of roughly
3.9 percent since 1975.
The share of those who choose to work part-time because of
family and health constraints, lifestyle preferences, or other reasons, is around 13 percent, a level that has been relatively stable since at least the 1970s. In recent years that group has
changed little in its demographics - about 60 percent female and
skewed towards younger and older workers - and in the numbers who cite child care, medical or other issues as the reason
for working part-time.
It is striking how stable the relationships have been, said Ariane
Hegewisch, a research director at the Institute for Women's
Policy Research in Washington.
As it analyzes the steady fall in those forced into part-time work
by the weak economy, the Federal Reserve now must judge
whether the tight labor markets of the 1990s and early 2000s
remain a good benchmark.
Some Fed officials say higher levels of part-time work might be
the new norm because of changes in employment patterns.
Some industries are moving towards more of a part time model,
Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart said this month. While he
said he regards the more than 6 million people who work parttime for economic reasons as too many, he is not sure how low
the figure can go. (Graphic anatomy of part timershttplink.reuters.comqez54w)
Fed officials and economists generally agree that more of the
current part-timers could move into full-time jobs. The question
is whether that potential involves millions more workers or the
roughly 900,000 that would bring part-time levels
back to their average since the 1970s - a target that may be
just a few months away.
Andrew Levin, a former Fed economist and now a research
fellow at the International Monetary Fund, argued in a recent
paper that the economy's performance from 1994 to just before
the recession was an appropriate yardstick and suggested a
substantial underemployment gap. Between 1994 and 2007 the
involuntary part-time workers - those whose hours were cut or
who could only find part-time work - made up about 3 percent of
those employed.
Until inflation starts to rise, he said, there is still room for involuntary part-time work to fall.
One view would be to say...Maybe we are done, absorbing parttime labor, Levin said. But we have been persistently falling
below two percent (inflation)...If you want price stability the best
thing you can do is push employment to its maximum.
Others point to the tepid pace of wage growth, low labor force
participation, and other data as evidence of continued slack.
Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota and some
other policymakers argue, consequently, for delaying rate hikes
until at least next year.
In Kocherlakota's district, Minneapolis resident Sivya Leventhal
exemplifies the flux the Fed wants to understand. While her
husband, laid off from a local TV station, looks for a full-time job,
she works part-time at the preschool in her synagogue to help
pay bills. Leventhal has a college degree and full-time experience, but wants to stay part-time until her son is older.
Financially it would make more sense but we are committed to
this, she says.
Behind some of the numbers are also career choices that may
not have existed a few years ago.
Amanda Gay, 34, became a part-timer as part of a career reset.
The 2003 University of Georgia graduate ditched a full-time
management job with a non-profit, signed up for health insurance through a government-run exchange and used the webbased FlexJobs service to find part-time work teaching English
online while she considers moving overseas.
There is no one-size fits all choice anymore.
NEW NORMAL
Fed governor Jerome Powell in a recent speech in New York
said present levels of part-time work could well be a new normal
because of the scars of the Great Recession
For Michelle Paradis, 34, one of about 11,000 workers who responded to the ReutersIpsos poll, part-time work was neither
quite an independent choice nor a clear sign of economic slack.
She limits her work to 16 hours a week in a hair salon to stay
under the federal $1,090 monthly earnings limit for social security disability recipients. It adds up to a liveable wage, says the
mother of three.
--By Howard Schneider
IFR MARKETS PREVIEW
Higher and flatter as overseas accounts buy dip overnight
Seng dipped 0.4%. Within Europe, peripheral bond markets
have spent the day on the fence - for example 10-year Italian
bonds are 1bp wider to Bunds while 30-year Italian bonds are
3bp tighter.
Gold has bounced to $1,189.63 while oil has dipped modestly to
$56.05. The euro is modestly better at EUR/USD1.0741, but the
pound is down ¼ big figure to GBP/USD1.5006, while the yen is
marginally softer at USD/JPY119.94.
Bonds are higher and flatter in decent volume with some 175k
10-year futures trading by 06:25 EST. A modest bounce in
Bunds, up ¼ point, has also helped 10-year futures and as a
result 10s/Bunds has widened a half a bp to +181.4bp, on
Tradeweb. Customer flows show better buying from overseas
accounts with Japan/Asia and Europe all lifting the market. June
10s have marked a range of 129-02/128-25, last at 129-00.5.
Extra help has also come from stocks where S&P futures are
down over five points, and have almost given up Wednesday’s
gains. The Eurostoxx50 is also down, by 0.9%, while the Nikkei
firmed 0.3%, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%, and the Hang
Michael.Cartine@thomsonreuters.com
3
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
April 23, 2015
TOP NEWS
Europe, China business activity disappoint in April
UK's Osborne avoids deficit slip-up, retail sales fall
Business activity slowed more than any forecaster expected in
the euro zone this month while manufacturing in Asia's top two
economies hit the brakes, suggesting the global recovery path is
less clear than policymakers are predicting.
The sudden drop in the euro zone flash composite Markit PMI
was driven by sharply slower growth in manufacturing orders in
Germany and France, suggesting recent optimism about the
euro zone may be overdone. This marks the first major euro
zone indicator that has disappointed all forecasts in quite some
time, and comes just a month after the ECB began purchasing
government bonds to stimulate the economy. The euro zone
composite PMI fell to 53.5 from 54.0. In China, where the government has been engineering a rebalancing of its economy
away from relying too much on exporting manufactured goods
towards domestic spending, the flash PMI fell to a one-year low
of 49.2 from 49.6. Japan's PMI also slid, to 49.7 from 50.3 in
April, as new orders continued to shrink and manufacturing production fell for the first time since July 2014. The data showed
an increase factory hiring, however. In the United States, the
pace of expansion in manufacturing is expected to have moderated slightly, but it still growing at a faster pace than in Europe.
Markit's flash U.S. manufacturing PMI is expected to ease
slightly to 55.5 from 55.7 in March.
British finance minister George Osborne met his target for lowering the country's budget deficit in the 2014/15 financial year,
avoiding an embarrassment two weeks before a national election.
The Office for National Statistics said that retail sales in March
unexpectedly fell, hit by the biggest slump in fuel sales in just
under three years, potentially adding to concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in early 2015. On the public finances,
public sector net borrowing totalled 7.4 billion pounds in March,
down 5.6 percent from a year earlier and the lowest for that
month since 2004. The shortfall for the financial year fell to 87.3
billion pounds, comfortably below the latest projection of 90.2
billion pounds set out by Britain's independent budget forecasters which acts as Osborne's target. March's public finances
were boosted by an increase in income tax revenues and national insurance contributions which rose nearly 4 percent.
In the 2014/15 financial year as a whole, income tax was its
highest on record, the ONS said. Public sector net debt excluding state-controlled banks totalled 1.484 trillion pounds in
March, equivalent to 80.4 percent of gross domestic product.
The ONS said that retail sales fell 0.5 percent in March compared with February and were up 4.2 percent compared with
March last year.
Greek cash seen lasting into June, no EU deal imminent
ECB's Praet urges countries to reform for recovery to last
Greece can scrape together enough cash to meet its payment
obligations into June, euro zone and Greek officials said on
Wednesday, playing down fears of an imminent default as
hopes receded of a deal with its creditors to release fresh aid.
The ECB raised its ceiling on emergency lending by the Greek
central bank to Greek banks by 1.5 billion euros to 75.4 billion
euros, giving them a bigger buffer to cope with deposit withdrawals, a banking source said.
Three sources familiar with ECB thinking denied a report that it
had tightened the screws on Greek banks by slashing the value
of the collateral they must present to receive emergency liquidity
to stay afloat.
The head of the Eurogroup Working Group said Athens would
not present a new list of economic reforms required to unlock
further EU funds when the ministers meet in Latvia on Friday,
but Greece should be able to stay solvent till June.
Greek Deputy Finance Minister Dimitris Mardas said the government aimed to have a 2.5 billion euro cash buffer by forcing
state entities to lend to the state in order to cover payments until
the end of May.
Countries in the euro zone need to reform in order for the economic recovery to become a lasting one, the European Central
Bank's chief economist said, saying one such step would be to
loosen regulation for employers.
Peter Praet's remarks are the latest instance of the ECB putting
pressure on countries to do their bit for the economy after the
central bank launched a trillion-euro-plus money printing
scheme. In contrast to earlier comments from ECB policy setters, which have typically been more general, Praet gave specific suggestions, citing French regulations for firms with more
than 50 staff as a hindrance to companies.
Despite the general improvement in the economic picture, Praet
warned of structural problems including the rising number of
long-term unemployed and underscored the need for investment.
Germany's private sector expands less than expected in
April
Growth in Germany's private sector slowed slightly in April, a
survey showed, suggesting that the government's cautious
growth forecast for Europe's largest economy might prove justified.
Markit's flash composite PMI, which tracks manufacturing and
services activity accounting for more than two-thirds of the
economy, fell to 54.2 from March's eight-month high of 55.4.
However, that was still comfortably above the 50 mark dividing
growth from contraction for a 24th consecutive month.
The sub-index for the manufacturing sector unexpectedly
dropped to 51.9 from 52.8 in March. The sub-index for services
also unexpectedly fell with a lower reading of 54.4 after 55.4 last
month. Meanwhile, French business activity barely grew in April,
due to a slower expansion than forecast in the services sector
and a faster contraction than expected in manufacturing.
The PMI for the services sector compiled by Markit fell to 50.8
compared with 52.4 in March. The manufacturing sector contracted slightly more than in March, with the PMI dropping to
48.4 from 48.8 the previous month.
U.S. home sales vault to 18-month high as supply improves
U.S. home resales surged to their highest level in 18 months in
March as more homes came on the market, a sign of strength in
housing ahead of the spring selling season.
The fairly upbeat report from the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday implied the economy was regaining some
momentum after hitting a speed bump at the start of the year.
But tepid retail sales and weak factory data suggested the
growth rebound will probably be insufficient to convince the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. Existing home sales
increased 6.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.19 million units in
March, the highest level since September 2013. The percent
rise was the largest since December 2010. The outlook for the
spring selling season was also boosted by a separate report
showing applications for loans to purchase homes jumped 5
percent last week to the highest level since June 2013.
4
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
April 23, 2015
MBS CLOSE FROM IFR MARKETS - April 22
Going out at the tights
one to three ticks from those points. The 30yr FNMA Current
Coupon gained five basis points to 2.69%; +63/10yr swaps,
+99/5yr-10yr blend, and +70/10yr notes.
15/30 swaps were up a couple of ticks in production space; G2/
FNs rallied another 1+ to 2/32, while 30yr FNMA coupons decompressed 1/8 point. Rate sheet sensitive FN3.5/3s are just
below +2 7/8 points, FN4/3.5s are right near two points, and the
UIC swap (FN4.5/3.5s) is within a few ticks of four points.
The economic calendar for Thursday entails the usual bevy of
weekly data starting at 8:30 a.m. along Jobless Claims (294k
last), 10 a.m. FHLMC PMMS mortgage rates (30yr fixed
3.67%), as well as the 2 p.m. NYFRB MBS Agency purchase
rehash ($8.847 billion previous). Also at 10 a.m., March New
Home Sales are revealed and expected lower from the 539k
print last time around.
At 11 a.m. Treasury announces details of next week’s fixed rate
(2s/5s/7s) and floating rate (2yr) supply needs, and at 1 p.m. will
auction $19 billion 5yr TIPS.
The New York Federal Reserve comes back for more Class A
tomorrow as $1.85 billion is the maximum normal this cycle.
Between 11:15-45 a.m. the Fed will buy 30yr FNMA and
FGLMC 3s and 3.5s.
Mortgage-backed securities are going out at the tights of the
day, with the upper belly leading as it has all session.
Much the same story as Tuesday, with 30yr 4s and 4.5s prospering as yield buyers push up and away from the lower/supply
laden bottom section. With the Fed supporting lower 3s and
3.5s, that left those coupons in a modest stalemate.
Dollar rolls were again the story as well, with the aforementioned coupons seeing their May/June drops rising 1/4 tick as
few wish to get caught short on the next 48-hour period, apparently. If you recall, those rolls had near double digit handles into
allocations.
Back to the Fed, the NYFRB took $2.6 billion Class A and C
bonds out of secondary circulation (http://www.newyorkfed.org/
markets/ambs/operations/results.html).The combined numbers
had a hit ratio of 26% and percentage allocated of 97% of the
$2.775 billion originally slated for removal.
30yr mortgage prices are closing at the low points, with bottom
coupons off six to 9/32 while the upper region is actually flat to
higher a tick. 15yrs are off 1/8 point, as 2s10s curve steepens
several basis points to +143, stocks rally 1/2 percent, while
swaps narrow (5y tenor 15.50, 10y 7.25, mid markets), and vols
straddle unchanged (3m10y 78.8, 5y10y 87.0). MBS spreads
are five ticks tighter to Treasuries in the belly of 4s and 4.5s, a
tick wider from there versus swaps, with adjoining coupons back
Albert.Durso@ThomsonReuters.com
TRADEWEB MBS VOLUME SUMMARY FROM IFR MARKETS - April 22
Tradeweb Summary
• At the 3 p.m. close, the 10-year Treasury note was marked
down 16+/32 to 100-08 (1.972% yield); the 2s10s curve was
over three basis points steeper to +142. The backup was attributed to a sell-off in German bunds and to better than expected
Existing Home Sales in March.
• After two days of below normal volume in MBS, it picked up
today to 106% of the 30-day moving average.
• Volume balance between 15s and 30s today was within normal ranges of 17.5% and 82.5%, respectively.
Sector
All
Sallyann.Runyan@thomsonreuters.com
5
Total Volume Vs 30-Day Avg
106%
FHLMC 15yr
39%
FHLMC 30yr
112%
FNMA 15yr
117%
FNMA 30yr
109%
GNMA 30yr
78%
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
April 23, 2015
TRADEWEB MARKETS
AS OF 7:00 AM ET
U.S. TREASURIES
BID
ASK
<27075>
YIELD CHANGE
UK GILTS
2-Year
99.914 99.922
0.541
-0.004
2-Year
102.135 102.162
0.520
0.053
2-Year
100.190 100.222
0.003
0.001
3-Year
99.609 99.617
0.881
-0.011
5-Year
103.616 103.644
1.285
0.108
5-Year
100.117 100.185
0.076
-0.010
5-Year
100.023 100.031
1.368
-0.018
10-Year 130.067 130.107
1.681
0.184
10-Year 100.796 100.941
0.317
-0.107
7-Year
100.219 100.234
1.714
-0.017
30-Year 122.676 122.776
2.425
0.372
20-Year 102.015 102.266
1.077
-0.185
10-Year 100.391 100.406
1.954
-0.016
30-Year 104.081 104.327
1.310
-0.315
30-Year
2.633
-0.020
97.234 97.266
USD IRS SWAPS
SPREAD
2-Year
0.260 0.265
3-Year
0.220 0.228
5-Year
0.155 0.160
7-Year
0.073 0.078
10-Year 0.070 0.075
30-Year -0.240 -0.235
EUROPEAN GOV’T DEBT
BID
<TWEBIRS>
RATE
0.803
0.809
1.103
1.109
1.524
1.528
1.787
1.791
2.025
2.029
2.394
2.398
ASK
BID
<0#GBBMK=TWEB>
ASK
YIELD CHANGE
GBP IRS SWAPS
2-Year
3-Year
5-Year
7-Year
10-Year
30-Year
0.974
0.984
1.164
1.174
1.435
1.445
1.609
1.619
1.773
1.783
2.078
2.091
EUR IRS SWAPS
2-Year
3-Year
5-Year
7-Year
10-Year
30-Year
130.071
130.111
1.681
0.188
BTPS-10Year
109.979
110.069
1.381
0.122
SE-10Year
121.332
121.741
0.299
0.357
RAGB-10Year
113.145
113.282
0.232
0.234
OLO55-10Year
FRTR-10Year
PGB-10Year
105.550
101.138
108.176
105.977
101.203
108.628
1.218
0.385
1.956
0.103
0.290
0.222
IRISH-10Year
144.263
144.592
0.737
0.317
RFGB-10Year
137.724
137.837
0.236
DBR-10Year
103.528
103.562
0.134
NETHR-10Year
99.744
99.814
0.275
0.300
<0#JPBMK=TWEB>
ASK
YIELD CHANGE
BID
<TWEBIRS>
RATE
<TWEBEURO>
YIELD CHANGE
UKT-10Year
JGBs
JPY IRS SWAPS
2-Year
3-Year
5-Year
7-Year
10-Year
30-Year
<TWEBIRS>
RATE
0.139
0.144
0.153
0.158
0.225
0.295
0.336
0.341
0.515
0.520
1.285
1.300
<TWEBIRS> CDS - U.S. (previous day’s close)
RATE
CLOSE CHANGE
0.067
0.071
CDXIG.23.V1.5Y 61.2204
0.230
0.101
0.106
CDXHY.23.V1.5Y 107.438
-0.048
0.211
0.217
0.328
0.333
0.489
0.494
0.777
0.787
CDS - Europe
0.286
BID
ITEEU.18.V1.5Y 59.789
ITEXO.18.V1.5Y 264.887
ASK
60.3623
267.191
0.260
ITEFA.18.V1.5Y
71.987
GGB-10Year
49.632
51.364
12.163
0.949
SPGB-10Year
102.105
102.293
1.373
0.130
DGB-10Year
115.417
116.032
0.212
0.321
71.034
All data below is from previous day's close
ACTIVE FANNIE MAE AGENCIES
TERM
<27096>
COUPON MATURITY
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
1.000
1.625
2.625
6.625
09/27/2017
01/21/2020
09/06/2024
11/15/2030
SPREAD
26.0
9.5
25.5
8.8
Active MBS 30YR
FNMA
FHLMC
GNMA
CPN
BID
3.000
3.000
3.000
102.109
101.922
103.000
-28.7
-1.4
22.3
48
ACTIVE FREDDIE MAC AGENCIES
BID YIELD
TERM
2-Year
3-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
0.813
1.485
2.225
2.736
<7687> - 89
ASK
102.125
101.938
103.078
6
<27096>
COUPON MATURITY
—
—
SPREAD
—
BID YIELD
—
—
0.875
22-02-2017 5.000
-15.400
0.603
0.875
2.375
6.250
07-03-2018 3.500
13-01-2022 12.500
15-07-2032 15.700
-15.000
8.600
51.800
0.932
1.861
2.805
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
April 23, 2015
THOMSON REUTERS CDS BIGGEST MOVERS
Convention spread for lower risk entities is based off the 100bp fixed coupon, while the convention spread for higher risk en tities is based off the
500bp fixed coupon. All data below is from previous day's close
CREDIT IMPROVEMENT - LOWER RISK ENTITIES
(CDS whose 5Yr spreads are <500bps)
CREDIT DETERIORATION - LOWER RISK ENTITIES
(CDS whose 5Yr spreads are <500bps)
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
Name
RIC
ConvSprd
% Chg
Name
RIC
DISCOVER FIN
TOYOTA MOTOR CR
ConvSprd
% Chg
<MSDF5YUSAX=R>
114.38
-11.12
CSX CORPORATION
<TOYA5YUSAC=R>
50.59
-8.14
MAGELLAN MIDSTR
<CSX5YUSAX=R>
20.74
7.74
<MMP5YUSAX=R>
92.99
ENTERPRISE PROD
<EPDE5YUSAX=R>
77.34
-6.07
7.48
BAXTER INTERNAT
<BAX5YUSAX=R>
30.66
ENTERPRISE PROD
<EPD5YUSAX=R>
78.69
6.94
-5.65
TIME WARNER CAB
<TWD5YUSAX=R>
99.49
ONEOK PARTNERS,
<OKS5YUSAX=R>
148.02
4.18
-5.12
SUNCOR ENERGY I
<SU5YUSAX=R>
79.99
3.82
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
Name
RIC
ConvSprd
% Chg
Name
RIC
BAYERISCHE LAND
<BLB5YEUAM=R>
75.16
-11.68
EVN AG
<EVNV5YEUAM=R>
ConvSprd % Chg
84.86
5.84
HYPOTHEKENBANK
<EUHY5YEUAM=R>
80.13
-5.83
DEXIA CREDIT LO
<DEXC5YEUAM=R>
182.25
4.29
STANDARD CHARTE
<STAN5YEUAM=R>
67.20
-5.60
IBERDROLA INTER
<IBER5YEUAM=R>
77.27
4.01
ANGLO AMERICAN
<AAL5YEUAM=R>
179.24
-5.47
VOLVO TREASURY
<VOLA5YEUAM=R>
107.20
3.33
NATIONAL WESTMI
<NWB5YEUAM=R>
69.18
-5.47
TESCO PLC
<TSCO5YEUAM=R>
170.81
3.30
ASIA PACIFIC
ASIA PACIFIC
Name
RIC
ConvSprd
% Chg
Name
RIC
HONDA MOTOR CO.
<HONB5YJPAC=R>
20.96
-18.89
AIR CHINA LIMIT
<AICN5YUSAC=R>
182.79
11.28
HONDA FINANC
<HONE5YJPAC=R>
20.96
-18.89
CHINAM
<CMHI5YUSAC=R>
156.40
8.44
MIZUHO BANK, LT
<MZFC5YUSAC=R>
47.56
-13.21
ORIX CORPORATIO
<ORIA5YJPAC=R>
56.62
7.77
-4.63
NIPPON STEEL CO
<NIPB5YJPAC=R>
43.33
3.61
-3.98
JFE HOLDINGS, I
<JFEH5YJPAC=R>
46.78
2.23
SUMITOMO CHEMIC
SOFTBANK CORP.
<SMCH5YJPAC=R>
<SFTB5YJPAC=R>
39.74
119.75
ConvSprd % Chg
CREDIT IMPROVEMENT - HIGHER RISK ENTITIES
(CDS whose 5Yr spreads are >=500bps)
CREDIT DETERIORATION - HIGHER RISK ENTITIES
(CDS whose 5Yr spreads are >=500bps)
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
Name
RIC
ConvSprd
% Chg
Name
RIC
ConvSprd
% Chg
MBIA INSURANCE
<MBIA5YUSAX=R>
1219.70
-3.17
AVON PRODUCTS,
<AVP5YUSAX=R>
550.51
0.59
PEABODY ENERGY
<BTU5YUSAX=R>
1581.08
-1.07
UNITED STATES S
<X5YUSAX=R>
519.93
0.48
IHEARTCOMMUNICA
<CCU5YUSAX=R>
2120.64
-0.07
ASIA ALUMIN
<ALMI5YUSAC=R>
4209.56
0.09
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
Name
RIC
ConvSprd
% Chg
Name
RIC
OPEN JOINT STOC
<ROSN5YEUAC=R>
559.83
-3.38
HELLENIC TELECO
<OTE5YEUAM=R>
664.59
0.60
RUSSIAN AGRICUL
<RSSB5YUSAC=R>
577.92
-2.18
PORTUGAL TELECO
<PTCF5YEUAM=R>
553.51
0.27
JSC VTB BANK
<VNES5YUSAC=R>
596.66
-2.10
NORSKE SKOGINDU
<NSG5YEUAM=R>
2631.52
0.05
HEMA BONDCO I B
<HEMB5YEUAM=R>
944.04
-1.03
STENA AKTIEBOLA
<STEN5YEUAM=R>
511.88
-0.57
ASIA PACIFIC
Name
RIC
ConvSprd
% Chg
JOYO BANK
<>
511.95
-0.55
7
ConvSprd % Chg
THE MORNING BENCHMARK
April 23, 2015
THOMSON REUTERS BIGGEST LOAN MOVERS
All data below is from previous day's close
CREDIT IMPROVEMENT
CREDIT DETERIORATION
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
Name
RIC
STALLION OILFIEL
VANTAGE DRILLING
Name
RIC
Avg. Bid
% Chg
3.03
ARCH COAL INC
<00ACIN031TB1=R>
74.38
-0.97
60.67
1.82
AMERICAN ENERGY
60.5
1.77
EDUCATION MANAGE <0EDMCO055TB1=R>
<A000R0011TB1=R>
82.75
-0.54
79.5
-0.42
0.74
CHARTER COMMUNIC <C000JM0A9TG1=R>
100.7
93
-0.36
64.33
0.52
PACIFIC DRILLING
86.94
-0.36
Avg. Bid
% Chg
<S000C6049TB1=R>
76.5
<V0005U024TB1=R>
WALTER ENERGY IN <W0006S019TB1=R>
FAIRMOUNT MINERA <F0002V031TB1=R>
VANTAGE DRILLING
<V0005U032TB1=R>
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
<P000EJ018TB1=R>
EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA
Name
RIC
Avg. Bid
% Chg
Name
RIC
Avg. Bid
% Chg
BIFFA WASTE SERI
<B000AF023TB1=R>
42.33
1.6
BURTON'S BISCUIT
<B000EQ017TB1=R>
88.75
-0.65
AVR HOLDING
<H0005S041TB1=R>
64.88
1.37
TUNSTALL HOLDING <T0007W037TB2=R>
86.08
-0.4
DUBAI WORLD LTD
<D0006P040TB1=R>
83.5
0.91
JACK WOLFSKIN
<A000DF039TB1=R>
90.46
-0.32
CORTEFIEL SA
<C000DJ039TB1=R>
68.4
0.47
CAMAIEU SA
<C000K1028TC2=R>
81
-0.31
HC STARCK GMBH
<H0006H026TB2=R>
98.42
0.43
ION TRADING TECH
<I0008Y024TB3=R>
100.6
-0.27
Price
% Chg
53
-3.77
43.5
-2.3
THOMSON REUTERS BIGGEST HIGH-YIELD BOND MOVERS
CREDIT IMPROVEMENT
CREDIT DETERIORATION
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
Name
RIC
Price
BOART LONGYEAR L
<09664PAA0=>
63.5
10.24
FOREST OIL CORP
<346091AZ4=>
22
7.95
FOREST OIL CORP
<346091BG5=>
22
7.95
SAMSON INVESTMEN
<796038AC1=>
10.5
7.14
47
4.26
COMSTOCK RESOURC <205768AJ3=>
Name
% Chg
RIC
GOODRICH PETROLE <382410AF5=>
ARCH COAL INC
<039380AK6=>
Thomson Reuters CDS index and single-name data is available in Eikon through CreditViews or by entering
<REUTERSCDS> in a quote.
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