Forecasting module - frePPLe | open source Production PLanning

Forecasting module
Ir Johan De Taeye
Agenda
frePPLe – who we are
Forecasting workflow and demo
Demo screenshots
© 2014 frepple.com
frePPLe – who are we?
FrePPLe
Leading open source advance planning and scheduling tool
> 5000 downloads per year
Johan De Taeye
Based out of Zaventem, Belgium
More than 15 years of experience implementing production
planning and supply chain optimization solutions
Project references in forecasting
Nokia (Finland), 2000-2004
Solution architect for a supply chain improvement program, which included a
global and collaborative forecasting process
Dassault Falcon (France), 2010-2012
Optimization of spare parts inventory for a fleet of over 1500 business jets, with
very specific forecasting and statistical risk analysis
© 2014 frepple.com
Forecasting workflow
Steps of a typical forecasting workflow
1. Data loading
2. History correction
3. Baseline forecast generation
4. Forecast review
5. Prepare forecast for use
Not all steps are relevant for every customer
© 2014 frepple.com
Forecasting workflow
1
Data
Loading
2
History
Correction
Load demand history, item hierarchy, customer hierarchy
Automated extract from ERP and other systems
Manual review and correction of historical demand data
Reasons for corrections
Exceptional demands, aka outliers
Product revisions, sku1 -> sku2 -> sku3
© 2014 frepple.com
Forecasting workflow
3
Baseline
Forecast
Generation
Statistical methods to extrapolate demand history
Moving average – flat forecast
Winters – seasonal demand
Single exponential – flat forecast
Croston – intermittent demand
Double exponential – trending demand
Pick-best based on percentage error (MAPE)
Auto-tuning of parameters
Fully automated proces
Time
4
Forecast
Review
Review and editing forecast
at any level in product,
customer and time dimension
Manual overrides
Product
Customer
© 2014 frepple.com
Forecasting workflow
5
Generate
Gross
Requirements
6
Generate
Plan
Net the customer orders from the gross forecast:
Gross forecast:
100
Orders already received: 20
> Net forecast:
80
Profile the forecast into finer buckets
Distribute weekly forecast over weekdays
Automated process
Final net forecast and customer orders are planned with
frePPLe’s advanced planning engine
Automated process, fully integrated
Resulting production and purchasing orders are sent to
the ERP for execution
© 2014 frepple.com
Screenshots: Forecast editing screen
Past:
Adjust demand history for outliers,
supersessions and special events
Future:
Apply corrections to precomputed statistical forecast
Review forecast and history at any level in
customer and product hierarchy
© 2014 frepple.com
Screenshots: Forecast definition screen
Configure forecasting parameters
at the SKU-level
© 2014 frepple.com
Web site:
http://frepple.com
Contact:
info@frepple.com
© 2014 frepple.com