Daily Market Comments - Diversified Services
Transcription
Daily Market Comments - Diversified Services
Friday, January 23, 2015 Today’s Futures Closes: Mar 15 Corn May 15 Corn July 15 Corn Sept 15 Corn Dec 15 Corn Dec 15 Oats Mar 15 Meal Mar 15 SB Oil Feb 14 Cattle Mar 15 Feeder Feb 14 Hogs $3.8675 $3.9525 $4.0275 $4.0925 $4.1725 $2.9625 $331.5 $31.60 150.350 201.825 69.300 +3.0 +3.25 +3.5 +4.0 +4.0 -2.0 +1.4 -0.37 -3.000 -4.500 -2.300 Jan 14 Soybeans Mar 15 Soybeans May 15 Soybeans Nov 15 Soybeans Jan 16 Soybeans Mar Rapeseed Mar 14 Cotton Dec 15 Cotton Mar 15 Rice Sep 15 Rice Nov 15 Rice $9.7275 $9.795 $9.8525 $9.5975 $9.655 $461.5 $57.30 $61.50 $1101.0 $1119.0 $1129.0 -4.0 -3.5 -3.5 -1.25 -1.25 -0.7 -0.46 -0.21 -15.0 -14.0 -14.0 Mar 14 CH Wheat July 15 CH Wheat Mar 14 KC Wheat July 15 KC Wheat Mar 14 MN Wheat Sep 15 MN Wheat Mar Dollar Index Feb Crude Oil Apr Gold Mar S&P Mar Dow Futures $5.30 $5.365 $5.64 $5.7225 $5.76 $5.985 95.053 $45.59 $1293.6 2043.90 17588 (Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.) The biggest story this week in the markets was the continued rally in the US dollar, which closed at its highest mark since 2003! Drop in European currencies led to money flow to the dollar as well as precious metals – a flight to safety. Weekly Export Sales last week were marketing year highs for corn & cotton, but with the continued strong dollar we’ll see if that will continue or not. For the week, corn held up well, with March corn only down ¼ cent. March soybeans dropped 4 cents on the week, Chicago March wheat fell 3 ¾ cents, March cotton dropped 1.93 cents, & March rice fell 31 ½ cents. I think the fundamentals for corn remain somewhat positive in 2015, with the trend in recent USDA reports to see ending stocks lowered, with export demand picking up for now, ethanol production still holding firm, and 2015 acreage expected to drop 2+ million acres. The 100day MA should keep providing good support. -3.75 -4.25 -0.75 -0.75 +0.5 +0.75 +0.691 -0.72 -8.1 -12.50 -149 (continued) (continued) To the right are updated pricing tables for the DCIS Price Select program for 2015. Price Select is our new crop insurance pricing program that allows producers to use more months than just February to establish their insurance base price. We’re half way through the month of January, and right now the average December corn price is $4.18 – a little above the current market – and the average November soybean price is $9.93 – more than 30 cents above the current market. Producers can consider adding either or both the March and April months to their policies, and if either average is higher than their February base price, they’ll get to use that average for their insurance guarantee. I’m strongly considering the month of April for corn, since we’re expecting to plant fewer acres this spring, and since a weather issue this spring or a planting rally to try to “buy” corn acres could help prices. But I also want to see first where the February average ends up prior to making that decision. Bottom line – this is a nice tool for producers to potentially increase their base price and hopefully get a chance to exceed their cost of production with their policy guarantee. This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. CGB Diversified Services, Inc is a registered introducing broker and a member of the NFA. Except as otherwise indicated DS does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of DS. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. At various times, DS or its affiliates may have positions in, and effect proprietary transactions in, futures, options, securities or other financial instruments which may be referred to herein. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange. Diversified Crop insurance Services is a company of CGB Enterprises, Inc. and is an equal opportunity provider. Diversified Crop Insurance Services / Rich Morrison 1610 West Lafayette Ave Jacksonville, Illinois 62650 (217) 479-6012