Grand City Properties SA Real Estate – Residential Clear principles

Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
Clear principles remain unchanged
● Portfolio: We gained a positive impression from our roadshow with Grand
City Properties (GCP) to Scandinavia, where the CEO and COO gave an
update on operations and acquisitions. The portfolio has now risen to
~52,000 units, with ~9,000 apartments acquired from November to March,
demonstrating stronger growth than in the same period last year (~5,000
units). We regard it as favourable that most of the new units are in the
company’s existing regions, such as North Rhine-Westphalia,
Dresden/Leipzig, and the northern parts of Hamburg and Bremen. GCP
also stressed that its underlying expectation of reaching a rental yield of
9% following improvement of the assets should be attainable. Currently,
the average fair value of GCP’s portfolio is €740/sqm, reflecting a multiple
on in-place rents of 13.5x, or 11.8x assuming full occupancy levels.
● Operations: It was interesting to receive more details on the progress of
portfolio improvement. This involves everything from painting corridors
and entrances, and optimising rent collection to specific modernisations
(eg bathroom or kitchen) to bring vacant flats back to the market. GCP also
strives to ensure that tenants can easily reach local caretakers/property
managers, which leads to higher tenant loyalty. We think that its track
record of continuous portfolio improvement over several years is strong
proof that, in residential real estate, it pays to internalise most of the
property and asset management functions. By doing so, GCP can obtain a
detailed insight of its assets and react quickly to upgrade the portfolio.
Nevertheless, management also made it very clear that improving a
portfolio is a long-term process, typically taking five to six years.
● Assumptions: We have adjusted our earnings forecasts only marginally
but have lowered our assumptions for the cost of capital, incorporating in
particular the improved financial profile following the rating upgrades and
the further debt diversification. This is not new, but we think GCP no
longer deserves the risk premiums that we initially applied in this regard
compared to its larger peers. This leads our new price target of €18.50. We
would not overestimate the impact of GCP joining the EPRA Global Real
Estate Index as of 23 March. The inclusion of GCP and Adler Real Estate
will bring the number of German property stocks on the index to 12, and
the marginal effect is positive. Arguably, the stock has had a good run and
has consistently been among the top performers in our universe. However,
in our view this also reflects its positive operational momentum. We expect
this to remain high and its financial profile to improve further. We regard
current valuation levels, with an earnings yield of ~5.0% on funds for
operations (FFO) for FY 2015, as reasonable. This justifies our Buy rating.
Y/E 31.12., EUR m
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
Total revenues
Net rents
EBIT (inc revaluation net)
EBIT (excl revaluation)
Net profit (reported)
Funds From Operations (FFO)
EPS reported
FFO per share
DPS
NAV per share
NNAV per share
EV/EBITDA
FFO yield
P/FFO
Dividend yield
P/NAV per share
P/NNAV per share
Net gearing
Loan-to-value (LTV)
Implied yield
39
24
122
29
82
11
1.98
0.28
0.00
4.89
7.71
11.7
8.1%
12.4
0.0%
-30%
-42%
105%
23%
7.1%
96
66
321
84
246
38
3.24
0.50
0.00
6.65
7.45
15.6
7.5%
13.4
0.0%
-10%
-10%
76%
39%
5.0%
147
137
257
119
176
67
1.49
0.56
0.19
8.03
11.33
24.6
3.4%
29.1
1.2%
83%
45%
115%
47%
4.7%
184
169
205
143
139
96
1.17
0.81
0.24
9.05
12.32
21.2
5.0%
20.2
1.4%
64%
33%
110%
47%
5.6%
223
205
243
177
159
115
1.34
0.97
0.30
10.24
13.52
19.1
5.9%
16.9
1.8%
46%
21%
128%
50%
6.1%
Source: Company data, Berenberg
Kai Klose, CIIA
Analyst
+44 20 3207 7888
kai.klose@berenberg.com
Tina Kladnik
Analyst
+44 20 3465 2716
tina.kladnik@berenberg.com
17 March 2015
BUY
Current price
Price target
EUR 16.41
EUR 18.50
16/03/2015 Luxembourg Stock Exchange
Close
Market cap (EUR m)
Reuters
GYC.F
Bloomberg
GYC GR
1,944
Changes made in this note
Rating:
Buy (no change)
Price target: EUR 18.50 (15.50)
Estimates changes
Rents
EBIT
FFO
2014
2015E
2016E
old ∆ % old ∆ % old ∆ %
142.43 -3.5 167.08 1.2 204.68
116.07 2.5 142.35 0.2 178.19 -0.9
0.63 -11.2
0.81 0.2 0.98 -1.3
Source: Berenberg estimates
Share data
Shares outstanding (m)
Enterprise value (EUR m)
Daily trading volume
119
2,931
140,000
Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
BUY
Investment thesis
17 March 2015
●
Grand City Properties has a strong track record of improving
portfolio quality by increasing occupancy levels and rents.
Current price
Price target
●
Improving balance sheet ratios have been reflected in a rating
upgrade from BB- to BBB- in a remarkably short period of time.
EUR 16.41
EUR 18.50
1,944
2,931
●
The company is now also rated by Moody's with an issuer rating of
Baa2 and a stable outlook.
140,000
●
Our valuation is based on return on net asset value and a dividend
discount model.
16/03/2015 Luxembourg Stock Exchange
Close
Market cap (EUR m)
EV (EUR m)
Trading volume
Free float
62.0%
Non-institutional shareholders
Share performance
Edolaxia Ltd* 34%
Valuemonth Holdings* 4%
Zanelo Trading Ltd* 1%
(*investment vehicles owned
company's founder)
High 52 weeks
Low 52 weeks
by
EUR 16.41
EUR 7.65
the
Business description
Performance relative to
Grand City is focused on German residential
properties and currently owns around
43,000 apartments. Its strategy centres on
upgrading undermanaged or distressed
properties by raising occupancy and rental
levels.
SXXP
MDAX
1mth
5.3%
3mth 16.6%
12mth 78.8%
3.7%
9.4%
73.6%
Profit and loss summary
EURm
Net rental income
Total revenues
Revaluation result
Total operating expense
EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA
Financial result
EBT
Net profit
Funds from operations
FFO/share
Year-end shares
DPS
Cash flow summary
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
17
39
94
3
122
29
-13
109
82
11
0.28
42
0.00
59
96
237
5
321
84
1
323
246
38
0.50
115
0.00
118
147
138
9
257
119
-7
249
176
67
0.56
119
0.19
138
184
62
10
205
143
-5
200
139
96
0.81
119
0.24
170
223
67
11
243
177
-12
231
159
115
0.97
119
0.30
Growth and margins
Rental growth
Adj. EBITDA growth
FFO growth
Adj. EBITDA margin
Adj. EBIT margin
FFO margin
Kai Klose, CIIA
Analyst
+44 20 3207 7888
kai.klose@berenberg.com
FFO
CF operating activities
Payments (acquisitions)
Income (asset disposals)
Change in debt position
Dividend paid
Capital measures
2012
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
11
32
52
13
80
0
18
38
36
311
0
-26
0
202
67
75
412
19
245
0
0
96
97
474
26
289
22
0
115
72
395
30
189
27
0
Key ratios
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
39.7%
115.1%
157.8%
73.8%
73.8%
67.4%
246.9%
195.4%
233.4%
87.4%
87.4%
64.8%
100.0%
41.3%
74.8%
80.8%
80.8%
56.7%
17.1%
19.9%
44.4%
77.5%
77.5%
69.9%
23.3%
23.8%
19.2%
79.3%
79.3%
67.6%
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
12.4
-30%
-42%
8.1%
0.0%
11.7
13.4
-10%
-10%
7.5%
0.0%
15.6
29.1
83%
45%
3.4%
1.2%
24.6
20.2
64%
33%
5.0%
1.4%
21.2
16.9
46%
21%
5.9%
1.8%
19.1
Valuation metrics
P / FFO
P / NAV
P / NNAV
FFO yield
Dividend yield
EV / adj. EBITDA
EURm
2012
Net debt
Net debt/equity
LTV
Net gearing
Interest cover
Dividend cover
Payout ratio
Return on NAV
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
193
1.5
23%
105%
2.7
0.0
6.2%
535
0.9
39%
76%
6.1
0.0
5.4%
986
1.3
47%
115%
3.4
3.0
0.3
7.8%
1,075
1.2
47%
110%
5.4
3.4
0.3
9.8%
1,431
1.3
50%
128%
5.2
3.3
0.3
10.3%
Key risks to our investment thesis
Tina Kladnik
Analyst
+44 20 3465 2716
tina.kladnik@berenberg.com
●
Rising demand for residential portfolios
●
There is some reputation risk as its portfolios were previously undermanaged and suffer from a poor image
Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
Financials
Profit and loss account
Year-end December(EUR m)
Net rents
Direct property expenses
Net operating income
Earnings from property disposals
Earnings from project developments
Earnings from other property activities
Other operating income
Total revenues
Revaluation result from investment properties (net)
Total income
Administrative expenses
Personnel expenses
Other operating expenses
Total operating expenses
EBITDA
EBITDA excl revaluation result (net)
Depreciation
EBITA
EBITA excl revaluation result (net)
Amortisation of goodwill
Amortisation of intangible assets
Impairment charges
EBIT (incl revaluation result net)
EBIT excl revaluation result
Interest income
Interest expenses
Depreciation of financial investment
Investment income
Financial result
Earnings before taxes (incl revaluation result)
Earnings before taxes (excl revaluation result)
Total taxes
Net income from continuing operations (incl revaluation result)
Net income from continuing operations (excl revaluation result)
Income from discontinued operations (net of tax)
Extraordinary items (net of tax)
Cumulative effect of accounting changes (net of tax)
Net income (incl revaluation result net)
Net income (excl revaluation result net)
Minority interest
Net income (net of minority interest, incl revaluation result)
Net income (net of minority interest, excl revaluation result)
Funds from operations (FFO)
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
24
7
17
6
0
0
9
39
94
133
2
1
0
3
122
29
0
122
29
0
0
0
122
29
0
7
6
0
-13
109
16
16
93
-1
0
0
0
93
-1
11
82
-12
11
66
7
59
30
0
0
1
96
237
333
3
2
0
5
321
84
0
321
84
0
0
0
321
84
0
6
-8
0
1
323
86
36
286
49
0
0
0
286
49
40
246
10
38
137
20
118
8
0
0
2
147
138
285
5
4
0
9
257
119
0
257
119
0
0
0
257
119
0
15
-8
0
-7
249
112
35
215
77
0
0
0
215
77
38
176
38
67
169
31
138
12
0
0
3
184
62
246
6
5
0
10
205
143
0
205
143
0
0
0
205
143
0
13
-8
0
-5
200
138
31
169
107
0
0
0
169
107
30
139
77
96
205
35
170
15
0
0
3
223
67
289
6
5
0
11
243
177
0
243
177
0
0
0
243
177
0
20
-8
0
-12
231
165
38
193
127
0
0
0
193
127
35
159
92
115
3
Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
Balance sheet
Year-end December (EUR m)
Intangible assets
Investment properties
Development assets
Property, plant and equipment
Financial assets
Other non-current assets
Deferred tax assets
FIXED ASSETS
Properties held for sale
Inventories
Accounts receivable
Accounts receivable and other assets
Liquid assets
CURRENT ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
Subscribed capital
Surplus capital
Additional paid-in capital
Net profit/loss
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
MINORITY INTEREST
PROVISIONS AND ACCRUED LIABILITIES
short-term liabilities to banks
Bonds (long-term)
long-term liabilities to banks
other interest-bearing liabilities
InterestInterest-bearing liabilities
Accounts payable
Current liabilities
Deferred income
Deferred taxes
LIABILITIES
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
0
407
0
0
6
23
2
437
11
5
21
21
81
118
555
6
14
13
151
184
19
7
6
96
172
0
274
22
42
0
29
345
555
0
1,368
0
4
13
15
2
1,402
20
34
62
62
133
249
1,651
12
14
305
374
705
63
21
12
195
462
0
668
92
114
0
80
862
1,651
0
2,081
0
7
15
8
5
2,117
6
34
119
119
148
307
2,424
12
14
305
528
858
93
71
10
616
508
0
1,134
140
163
0
104
1,401
2,424
0
2,293
0
7
15
9
6
2,330
6
34
123
123
60
223
2,552
12
14
305
648
979
94
72
11
616
508
0
1,135
142
166
0
106
1,407
2,552
0
2,834
0
7
15
10
6
2,872
6
34
123
123
16
178
3,050
12
14
305
786
1,117
96
74
12
616
818
0
1,446
185
209
0
109
1,764
3,050
4
Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
Cash flow statement
EUR m
Funds from operations
Other recurrent / nonnon -recurrent items
Increase/decrease in working capital
Cash flow from operating activities
Capex
Payments for acquisitions
Financial investments
Income from asset disposals
Cash flow from investing activities
Increase/decrease in debt position
Dividends paid
Purchase of own shares
Capital measures
Others
Cash flow from financing activities
Cash flow from operating activities
Cash flow after maintenance capex
Cash flow before financing
Increase/decrease in liquid assets
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
11
0
-20
32
4
52
0
13
-43
80
0
0
18
0
99
32
11
-11
88
38
0
2
36
14
311
0
0
-324
-26
0
0
202
0
176
36
38
-288
-112
67
0
-9
75
21
412
0
19
-414
245
0
0
0
0
245
75
67
-339
-94
96
0
-1
97
23
474
0
26
-471
289
22
0
0
0
267
97
96
-396
-107
115
0
43
72
28
395
0
30
-394
189
27
0
0
0
161
72
115
-349
-160
5
Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
Ratios
Ratios
Return on equity
Net profit / Y/E equity
Recurring net profit / Y/E equity
Net profit / avg. equity
Recurring net profit / avg. equity
Security
Net debt
Debt / equity
Net gearing
Interest cover
EBITDA / interest paid
Dividend payout ratio
Dividend cover
Loan-to-value (LTV)
Return on net asset value
Liquidity
Current ratio
Acid test ratio
Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
-6.3%
6.2%
-6.3%
6.2%
1.4%
5.4%
1.4%
5.4%
4.5%
7.8%
4.5%
7.8%
7.8%
9.8%
7.8%
9.8%
8.3%
10.3%
8.3%
10.3%
193
149%
105%
2.7
2.7
0%
23%
6.2%
535
95%
76%
6.1
6.1
0%
39%
5.4%
986
132%
115%
3.4
3.4
34%
3.0
47%
7.8%
1075
116%
110%
5.4
5.4
29%
3.4
47%
9.8%
1431
129%
128%
5.2
5.2
30%
3.3
50%
10.3%
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
6
Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
Please note that the use of this research report is subject to the conditions and restrictions set forth in the “General investment
investmentstment -related
disclosures” and the “Legal disclaimer” at the end of this document.
For analyst certification and remarks regarding
regarding foreign investors and countrycountry-specific disclosures, please refer to the respective
paragraph at the end of this document.
Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz –
WpHG)
Company
Grand City Properties SA
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Disclosures
5
Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (hereinafter referred to as “the Bank”) and/or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or CoLead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company.
The Bank acts as Designated Sponsor for this company.
Over the previous 12 months, the Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has effected an agreement with this company for investment
banking services or received compensation or a promise to pay from this company for investment banking services.
The Bank and/or its affiliate(s) holds 5% or more of the share capital of this company.
The Bank holds a trading position in shares of this company.
Historical price target and rating changes for Grand City Properties SA in the last 12 months (full coverage)
Date
19 March 14
02 June 14
08 September 14
08 December 14
05 February 15
17 March 15
Price target - EUR
10.00
11.50
12.50
14.50
15.50
18.50
Rating
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Initiation of coverage
07 November 13
Berenberg Equity Research ratings distribution and in proportion to investment banking services,
as of 1 October 2014
2014
Buy
Sell
Hold
46.82 %
14.78 %
38.40 %
69.23 %
3.85 %
26.92 %
Valuation basis/rating key
The recommendations for companies analysed by Berenberg’s Equity Research department are made on an absolute basis for
which the following three-step rating key is applicable:
Buy:
Sustainable upside potential of more than 15% to the current share price within 12 months;
Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 15% to the current share price within 12 months;
Hold:
Upside/downside potential regarding the current share price limited; no immediate catalyst visible.
NB: During periods of high market, sector, or stock volatility, or in special situations, the recommendation system criteria may be
breached temporarily.
Competent supervisory authority
Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht -BaFin- (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority),
Graurheindorfer Straße 108, 53117 Bonn and Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
General investmentinvestment - related disclosures
Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (hereinafter referred to as “the Bank”) has made every effort to carefully research all information
contained in this financial analysis. The information on which the financial analysis is based has been obtained from sources which
we believe to be reliable such as, for example, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and the relevant specialised press as well as the
company which is the subject of this financial analysis.
7
Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
Only that part of the research note is made available to the issuer (who is the subject of this analysis) which is necessary to properly
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I, Tina Kladnik, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all
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exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of
private investors or private customers.
This document is classified as objective for the purposes of FINRA rules. Please contact Berenberg Capital Markets LLC (+1 617 292
8200) if you require additional information.
8
Grand City Properties SA
Real Estate – Residential
ThirdThird-party research disclosures
Company
Grand City Properties SA
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Disclosures
no disclosures
Berenberg Capital Markets LLC owned 1% or more of the outstanding shares of any class of the subject company by the end
of the prior month.*
Over the previous 12 months, Berenberg Capital Markets LLC has managed or co-managed any public offering for the subject
company.*
Berenberg Capital Markets LLC is making a market in the subject securities at the time of the report.
Berenberg Capital Markets LLC received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months, or expects to
receive such compensation in the next 3 months.*
There is another potential conflict of interest of the analyst or Berenberg Capital Markets LLC, of which the analyst knows
or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.
* For disclosures regarding affiliates of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC please refer to the ‘Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the
German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG)’ section above.
Copyright
The Bank reserves all the rights in this document. No part of the document or its content may be rewritten, copied, photocopied or
duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the Bank’s prior written consent.
© May 2013 Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG
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