PPHA 39320-01: Energy in the 21st Century: Resources, Economics

PPHA 39320-01: Energy in the 21st Century: Resources, Economics, the
Environment, & Policy
Profs. Rosner & Sanstad
Spring Quarter 2015
Prerequisites for this course:
Interest! This course will explore science, economics, and technology topics that are relevant to energy analysis and
policy, and aims to demonstrate how knowing more (or better) about the issues in these domains can potentially
and ultimately drive more sensible policy decisions. Our goal is to provide students with the information and
insight needed to understand and think critically about today’s major energy issues. The course is most definitely
not intended to be a remedial science or economics course for folks interested in policy.
Our take about Harris students is that, given the rigorous foundational course structure of the first year graduate
program, anyone taking that course sequence will be more than prepared to deal with the material that we will be
presenting. And it goes without saying that we will be dealing with topics that do involve (really, require)
quantitative analyses – but we will not be solving (for example) differential equations.
What is the course about?
The course will cover major topics in energy from both a physical science/engineering and an economic perspective.
Both the contrasts between, and ways of integrating, these two paradigms and their respective methodologies will
be analyzed, especially in regard to technology assessment and the design of policy. We will begin with a basic
background on the physics and economics of energy. “Topics” will then include long-run fossil fuel supplies, the
physical and economic feasibility of transitioning to a low-carbon energy system, and the major approaches to and
methods for energy policy analysis and regulation. The discussion will be broadly organized around specific energy
sources and technologies – fossil, nuclear, renewable, etc. – each of which we'll use to explore the major themes.
Schedules:
Lectures take place on Tuesdays from 15:00 to 17:50 pm, at the Harris School for Public Policy Studies, 1155 E. 60th
St.; the lectures are tentatively scheduled to be in room 140C. First class: March 31, 2015.
Text(s):
We will be assigning readings from academic journals, government agencies, the media, and other sources. The
primary reference is Richard A. Muller, Physics and Technology for Future Presidents: An Introduction to the Essential
Physics Every World Leader Needs to Know (Princeton U. Press). This book is available at Amazon, where usually the
best prices reign. It’s a fairly new text, and is a much expanded version of two other (older) books, one of which
(Physics for Future Presidents) has been available as a paperback for over five years. We don’t recommend the earlier
versions, as they contain substantially less material, and were not designed as text books (for one thing, they are far
less quantitative …). We will regularly also refer to another text, David JC MacKay’s Sustainable Energy – Without the
Hot Air (UIT Cambridge Ltd.). This is a free (!) book, available as a downloadable pdf file on MacKay’s web site
www.withouthotair.com . It has a lot of very useful (quantitative) information, and is a very nice complement to
Muller’s text. A commercial (hard-copy) version also exists; its principal advantage is that it is nicely packaged – its
principal disadvantage is that the on-line version is constantly updated, while the commercial version is not …
Course Website: The course website is hosted on the university's chalk system, at http://chalk.uchicago.edu. Relevant materials,
such as homework sets and homework solutions, will be posted on chalk. Log in using your CnetID. We will be
posting any and all supplemental course materials at this web site, where you should have no problems
downloading them.
Exams, Papers, Grading:
There will be no exams, but there will be a weekly homework assignment, as well as a final quarter paper, due at the
end (= the last day) of exam period. Grades will be based approximately on the following weighting:
Homework
Final quarter paper
40%
60%
We are receptive to the idea of teams of no more than 3 students partnering on a final quarter paper – but we will
expect a level of accomplishment for that paper that should be commensurate with the fact that there are multiple
authors.
Homework:
1
Homework will be assigned on Tuesdays, and will be due at the beginning of class period on the following
Tuesday. No late homework will be accepted.
Other Additional Useful Facts:
We can usually be found in the Computation Institute (Bob: CI 226; Alan: CI 229), located at 5735 Ellis Avenue (this
building is also known as the Searle Chemistry Building); Bob can also be found at the Harris, in Room 174; BUT the
precise schedule of where we are when is way too difficult to describe here. HOWEVER: We can be best reached via
r-rosner@uchicago.edu and/or alanhs@uchicago.edu ; in an emergency, Ms. Lydia Veliko (lydiav@uchicago.edu)
may know where we can be found. (Caution: please do not contact Ms. Veliko regarding details of this course, as
this is not part of her job!)
The Web:
We strongly suspect that all of you are quite conversant with the Web, and if you’re not, you surely will be after
taking this course. The Web is an amazing source of both information and mis-information; and one of the things
you will be paying much attention to is how to distinguish these two data characteristics …
The Honor System:
We function on the honor system. This means that you are on your honor to hand in work that is your own. This does not
mean that we discourage studying and learning with fellow students -- quite the contrary! What we do frown upon is such
things as copying your friend's homework just before class, and just plain cheating. See also
http://harrisschool.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/Academic%20and%20Behavioral%20Integrity%202012.pdf
(which can also be found on our chalk website).
2
PPHA 39320-­‐01: Energy in the 21st Century: Resources, Economics, the Environment, & Policy
University of Chicago, Spring Term 2015
Profs. Rosner & Sanstad
Topical outline & schedule
Lecture #
Topic
1
Introduction & background: An overview of energy and the challenges it poses * Basic definitions: Energy from physical science and economic perspectives * What we talk about when we talk about "energy:" Energy, fuels, and energy services
* Some examples: Orders of magnitude -­‐ are we "running out?" Are we "addicted to fossil fuels"? * Course roadmap
2
Supplies, demands, and flows : The U. S. energy system and energy economy
* Sankey diagram
* Production, consumption, and markets
* Trends: Past, present, and future
* How do we know what we (think we) know? Data, models, and methods
3
U. S. energy policy: Who? What? How? Why?
* Policy vs. regulation
* From top to bottom: Federal departments and agencies; regional and state authorities; their functions and responsibilities
* History * Paradigms and instruments: "Command & control;" "market mechanisms"
4
The environmental perspective
* Emissions typology: CO2, SO2, Nox, etc.
* Who emits what, and how much
* Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change: Science, economics, and technology
5
* The electricity/power system: Production, storage, delivery, & demand
* Electricity and power markets
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Additional details
Course logistics, requirements, and expectations
Aggregate energy accounting -­‐ primary, secondary, and end-­‐use
Absolute magnitudes and "intensities"
USEIA; energy modeling
Examples -­‐ e.g., "Achieving energy indepdence" vs. NERC grid reliability standards
Role of the U. S. Congress
Pre-­‐ and post-­‐ WWII: Emegence of the modern regulatory infrastructure
Technology standards; tax subsidies; emissions pricing * The Grid: Engineering & operations
"Smart grid;" distributed generation
* Generation technologies overview
* Other: process heat, etc.
Fossil fuels
* Resources: Physics, economics, & technologies * Generation technologies details
* Economics: Current and future costs
* Environmental impacts
Nuclear
* Physics: How fission works
* Technologies: Current and prospective
* Safety, waste, and security
* Economics: Current and future costs
Renewables
* Physics and engineering
* Technologies: Current and prospective
* Economics: Current and future costs
Fossil, nuclear, renewables; storage
Energy efficiency * The "end-­‐use" paradigm
* Policy rationale: The "efficiency gap" * End-­‐use efficiency poliices & programs
* Evidence & aspirations: The historical experience and future "efficiency potential"
* Efficiency and CO2 emissions
Transportation
* Modes: private & commercial vehicles; rail; aviation * Technologies: Internal combustion, electric, hydrogen
* Economics, the market, and regulation: Current and future costs, and consumer demand
* Environment: Transport CO2 emissions
What about the rest of the world?
* Global energy overview: Supply, demand, economics
* The past & and the future: How the "global energy balance" is changing
* Global energy trends, CO2 emissions, and climate change
Inventing the energy future: R&D and innovation
* How will global energy demand be met?
* Q: Can we "save the climate with today's technologies at reasonable cost?" A: No.
* Incremental vs. disruptive technological change
* The roles of government and industry
Coal, natural gas, & petroleum
Why "how much there is" depends on "how much it's worth" Coal & "clean coal;" combined-­‐cycle gas turbines, etc.
Cost & technology improvement; hydraulic fracturing
Reality check: Could we have "100% renewables?" Focus on residential & commercial sectors
1st Law of Thermodynamics & life-­‐cycle cost analysis
Market "barriers" and market failures
Building energy codes, appliance efficiency standards, utility programs, Energy Star, etc.
What policies & programs have actually accomplished; the McKinsey study
Efficiency and 111(d) -­‐ reducing emissions from electric power plants
CAFÉ standards; gasoline taxes
China, India; economic growth and energy demand
The interplay of technology and economics
Seeking "real-­‐life science fiction"