IKB-DEF-MAR 25, 15 - Indicia Research & Advisory

Indicia Knowledge Brief
A Daily Assessment on Indian Defence and Internal/Homeland Security
March 25, 2015.
Primary aims of Indicia Daily Brief are two-fold. First, it distills infinite information into a
capsule form, thus saving precious time of its clients. Second, it tries to link micro-events
to larger strategic canvas through its analyses, thus providing support knowledge for
better understanding and decision-making.
Indicia Analysis of the Day
India’s request to Russia for the transfer of another nuclear submarine on
lease, if corroborated by the government, will become the second
submarine that Russia transfers to India for lease. Speculations are rife
about it being the project 971 Kashalot-class submarine.
India is fast tracking its project to build an indigenous aircraft carrier,
since the country’s oldest carrier is scheduled to retire next year.
Resentment is brewing in serving and retired defence personnel after a
recent Supreme Court verdict made Armed Forces Tribunals (AFTs) the
only forum for them to redress their grievances.
I. National Defence and Security:
MMRCA Stalemate: Who wins Who Loses?
France was getting closer to clinch a mega military deal to sell its Rafale multirole fighter jets to the Indian Air Force - a deal worth over US$11 billion at that
point of time. If signed, it would have become the foremost and biggest export
deal for the French-made four+ generation fighter. Come 2015, and things have
moved nowhere. With time and a regime change in New Delhi, the multi-billion
dollar defence deal has been stuck in a quagmire. The swiftly-shifting tectonic
plates at the global strategic level also appear to have some bearing on the same.
India, which has been importing most of its high-technology military hardware
from overseas since its independence, has become hell-bent to gain the
maximum, both in terms of technology and price, out of such a high-profile
mega-budget deal wherein a major chunk of its annual defence budget would be
spent on acquiring 126 of the new fighters. Moreover, with a major thrust on the
Make-In-India programme, to gain rich technological dividends from the MMRCA
deal in the longer run has become the primary driving factor for the current
Government. Once optimistic and euphoric that it would certainly clinch the
multi-billion dollar contract to supply such a large number of fighters to the
Indian Air Force after emerging as the lowest bidder in the deal piping
Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Aviation, has been involved in an excruciatingly
long negotiation process with the Indian Defence establishment since 2012.
Interestingly, while the French fighter had no takers worldwide when India
shortlisted it for the MMRCA deal, today it has found a customer at last, with
Egypt inking a contract this year to buy 24 of the Rafale fighters. Dassault,
otherwise, has already lost a contract in Brazil and one in Switzerland to sell its
Rafales.
Source: http://www.brahmand.com/news/MMRCA-stalemate-Who-wins-who-loses-/13719/1/15.html
*
India wants to lease another Russian nuclear submarine:
India has asked Russia to transfer another nuclear submarine for lease, a highplaced source in the system of Russia’s military and technical cooperation with
foreign countries said. The project 971 Kashalot-class submarine may become
the second submarine that Russia transfers to India for lease, the source said. "In
January this year, the Indian side suggested transferring the second project 971
multipurpose nuclear submarine Kashalot for lease," the source said, adding "the
Russian side is studying the issue." "The procedure will most likely be similar to
the procedure, which was used for transferring the first submarine called Nerpa
(dubbed Charka by India) to the Indian side," the source said. A representative of
Russia’s ship-building industry also told TASS that "the Indian side is requesting
to transfer this submarine to it for lease." TASS has not yet received any official
confirmation of this information. The project 971 Nerpa nuclear submarine
joined the Indian Navy in the spring of 2012. The submarine was laid down back
in 1991 and Russia finished its construction after it received financing from the
Indian side. The Nerpa was leased from Russia for a term of ten years. The Times
of India reported late last year that India wanted to lease the second Russian
nuclear submarine.
Source:
http://in.rbth.com/news/2015/03/24/india_wants_to_lease_another_russian_nuclear_submarine_42161.ht
ml
*
India is fast-tracking development of its new aircraft carrier
INS Vikrant:
India is fast tracking its project to build an indigenous aircraft carrier, since the
country’s oldest carrier is scheduled to retire next year, The Times Of India
reports. India’s current INS Viraat aircraft carrier is set to retire next year after
56 years of service in the Indian navy. With a fleet of only 11 ageing Harrier jump
jets and a host of mechanical and restoration costs, it isn’t economically or
strategically viable to continue operating the vessel. As the retirement will leave
the Indian navy with only one other carrier, the INS Vikramaditya. So India has
decided to speed up the development of its own aircraft carrier, according to The
Times of India. Although the vessel’s exact size and propulsion system are still
being proposed, India is planning for the Vishal to be a fully modern aircraft
carrier. The Diplomat reports that the Vishal will displace 65,000 tons and will
be constructed with US-provided Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch Systems
(EMALS). This would allow the carrier to launch aircraft at a faster rate with
improved ease, compared to previous Indian carriers. Aside from EMALS, USNI
News reports THAT the carrier will likely also feature a catapult assisted take-off
but arrested recovery (CATOBAR) system similar to what’s used aboard US
Nimitz-class aircraft carriers. This system would allow the Vishal to launch a
range of heavy fighters as well as surveillance planes. The Times of India
estimates that the Vishal should be complete within 10 to 12 years. The
development of the carrier will likely receive significant help from a bilateral
agreement between the US and India that lays the ground for “a working group
to explore aircraft carrier technology sharing and design.” Aside from the Vishal,
India is developing a smaller carrier, the INS Vikrant. Much of that vessel has
already been constructed, and it is expected to be ready for induction in 2018 to
2019. Ultimately, India is hoping to field a fleet of five carriers of various sizes to
solidify its presence in the Indian Ocean. India’s drive to create an aircraft carrier
fleet is a reflection of the country’s ongoing competition with China. Beijing has
been steadily investing in port installations in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka,
and Myanmar. These ports have allowed for Chinese merchant vessels, in
addition to submarines and warships, to have safe harbour throughout the
entirety of the Indian Ocean....
Source: http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news-internal.aspx?id=kxHBpQEIuYc=
*
Transport aircraft futures for the Indian Air force:
Ever since the Ministry of Defence (MoD) issued its 2009 directive to prepare the
military for a two front war, there has been a heightened sense of urgency in
acquiring transport platforms that can move men and materiel over considerable
distances at short notice. Prior to this, the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami had also
brought to light the need to bring in longer ranged airborne platforms that can
sustain humanitarian support across the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
Accordingly, the Indian Air force (IAF) is recapitalizing its entire transport fleet
with a view to becoming more potent in out of area operations besides being
able to support the Indian Army's (IA's) ever growing logistical requirements.
While in the short term, quick buys of American platforms through the foreign
military sales (FMS) route such as Boeing's C-17 Globemaster III and Lockheed
Martin's C-130Js have been effected, it is clear that the IAF's requirements need
to be actually used to spur the progressive indigenization of its transport aircraft
pool. Moreover the IAF's transport aircraft needs could well be used to seed a
second domestic original equipment maker (OEM) besides HAL from within
India's private sector. India ordered 10 C-17s from Boeing in June 2011 for $ 4.1
billion. Described sometimes as both a tactical and strategic airlifter since it can
land combat capable soldiers in remote locations or airdrop paratroops directly
to specific points in addition to being able to carry a T-90 to a respectable
altitude, the C-17's ability to back up over a 2 degree gradient also facilitates
operation on both narrow taxiways as well as congested ramps. The plane
according to the manufacturer has a maximum payload of 74,797 kg, a maximum
range of 4320 kms and can take off and land in 3,000 feet or less. The C-17's 'hot
and high' capability is of particular interest to the IAF that has to contend with
very varied terrain indeed. In a fast paced limited conflict the C-17's ability to
operate from some relatively bare airstrips in all-weather conditions make it a
useful asset for reinforcing remote regions along our Northern borders. Boeing
as per contract will also support India's C-17 fleet through the C-17 Globemaster
III Sustainment Partnership which is a multinational 'performance-based
logistics program'. And which apparently gives 'access to an extensive support
network for worldwide parts availability and economies of scale' according to
Boeing. It would however be interesting to see how this really turns out in the
coming decades for the IAF given the vagaries of the Indo-US relationship.....
Source: http://ibnlive.in.com/blogs/sauravjha/2976/65551/transport-aircraft-futures-for-the-indian-airforce.html
*
India, China to maintain border peace for good ties:
India and China concluded their 18th round of border talks with both sides
agreeing to take necessary steps to maintain peace and tranquility on the
frontier as a pre-requisite for continued growth of bilateral relations, a
statement said. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, the special representative
on the boundary talks, and his Chinese counterpart, State Councillor Yang Jiechi,
held talks to resolve issues regarding the over 4,000 km boundary. Jiechi, who
arrived, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 24 morning. A statement
from the ministry of external affairs said that both officials and their teams held
talks that were “marked by cordiality and candour and were held in a
constructive and forward looking atmosphere”. The talks are the first such after
the Narendra Modi government assumed office last year. Both the special
representatives “undertook a comprehensive review of earlier rounds of the
talks” and “expressed satisfaction on the progress made in the negotiations and
emphasised commitment to the three-step process to seek a fair, reasonable and
mutually acceptable resolution of the border question at an early date”, the
statement said. “The special representatives continued the discussions to reach a
mutually acceptable framework for resolution of the boundary question on the
basis of the agreement on the political parameters and guiding principles,” it
said. The special representatives expressed satisfaction at the growing
interaction between the border forces of the two countries and agreed to further
expand such contacts as these constitute important confidence-building
measures for maintaining peace and tranquility in the border areas, the
statement said. Both also viewed positively the development of bilateral
relations following the successful visit of President Xi Jinping to India in
September 2014 and “agreed to build on the momentum provided” by Xi’s visit
to further expand bilateral relations in areas such as railways, smart cities,
vocational education, skill development, clean and renewable energy and
manufacturing sector. Both sides agreed that growing linkages between Indian
states and Chinese provinces through sister-city and sister-province mechanism
plays an important role in deepening bilateral ties....
Source: http://idrw.org/archives/60893
*
Explained: Border Question:
As new Special Representatives Ajit Doval and Yang Jiechi begin the 18th round
of negotiations since 2003, SUSHANT SINGH looks at the background and
contours of the border dispute between India and China
What is the origin of the border dispute?
After the British left, membership of all international organizations and treaties
signed by British India devolved to India. After the communists took power,
China pulled out of all international agreements and “unequal treaties” imposed
on it during its “century of humiliation”, and demanded re-negotiation of all
borders. The border between China and India has never been delimited.
What is the McMahon Line?
At the 1914 China-Tibet-Britain Simla Convention, Sir Henry McMahon, foreign
secretary of British India, drew up the 890-km McMahon Line as the border
between British India and Tibet. The line, drawn primarily on the highest
watershed principle, marked out previously unclaimed/undefined borders
between Britain and Tibet. The line put Tawang and other Tibetan areas in the
British empire. The line was forgotten until the British government published
the documents in the 1937 edition of Aitchison’s Collection of Treaties.
Subsequently, China refused to accept the line.....
Source: http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-border-question/
*
Resistance to Chief of Defence Staff post was within Army, IAF,
Navy: Sahshi Tharoor:
Former Union Minister Shashi Tharoor said "resistance" within the three
Services -- Army, Navy and Air Force -- was the reason behind erstwhile UPA
government's rejection of the idea of having a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). The
senior Congress leader made the remarks on the occasion of the fourth K
Subrahmanyam Memorial Lecture that was delivered by Lt Gen (Retd) Shamsher
Singh Mehta. "As indeed the idea of an integrated defence chief is apparently
being given thought by the present government. It was turned down by the
previous one principally because of resistance within the uniformed services.
"My understanding is that resistance may have much more to do with military
ego and protocol issues amongst the chiefs than may be intellectual rejection of
the value of an integrated command," Tharoor said. His comments came days
after Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said integration of the three Services "is
a must" and that he is working out a mechanism for the creation of a post of Chief
of Defence Staff (CDS) with a fixed tenure that he will recommend in the next "23 months".......
Source:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/resistance-to-chief-of-defencestaff-post-was-within-army-iaf-navy-sahshi-tharoor/articleshow/46680830.cms
*
Court's 'AFT only' verdict wounds defence personnel:
Resentment is brewing in serving and retired defence personnel after a recent
Supreme Court verdict made Armed Forces Tribunals (AFTs) the only forum for
them to redress their grievances. Many feel their legal right to appeal against
AFT orders has been unfairly curtailed. Several armed forces welfare
organizations have approached the central government to amendment the AFT
Act to negate the impact of the verdict. According to them, most complaints are
against the ministry of defence (MOD) and given that AFTs are an organ of the
MOD, there should be a separate body to challenge orders. Bhimsen Sehgal,
chairman of All India Ex-serviceman welfare association, argues that the right of
judicial remedy should not be snatched away from defence personnel. He has
submitted a representation to the defence minister, requesting him to either
have the AFT Act amended, make room for appeal after AFT orders or set aside
the AFTs altogether. Defence personnel could challenge AFT orders before the
high courts until the Supreme Court's March 11 order which held that AFT
verdicts cannot be challenged. An aggrieved serving or retired soldier would
have no other remedy. They can challenge the order before the Supreme Court
but only if a "point of law of general public importance" is involved. Veterans and
legal experts say a war widow, whose pension has been abruptly stopped would
hardly be able to convince the apex court that her case is of public importance,
effectively closing all doors for her......
Source:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/Courts-AFT-only-verdict-wounds-defencepersonnel/articleshow/46673598.cms
*
India, China Agree on Steps for Border Peace:
India and China on Tuesday agreed to take steps to maintain peace along the
border, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he hoped for “solid
outcomes” when he travels to Beijing soon. Following Monday’s daylong talks
here, the two Special Representatives(SR)-- National Security Adviser Ajit Doval
and Beijing’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi -- jointly called on the PM Modi in the
morning and briefed him on the discussions. While this was the 18th round
under the SR mechanism, this was the first between the two countries after Modi
Government took over in May. As per the statement issued by the Ministry of
External Affairs, the talks were marked by “cordiality and candour and were held
in a constructive and forward looking atmosphere” . Emphasising the centrality
of the border issue, “Both Sides agreed to take necessary steps to maintain peace
and tranquility in the border areas which is a pre-requisite for continued growth
of bilateral relations”. Further, the two SRs agreed to expand contacts between
the border forces as “these constitute important confidence building
measures(CBM) for maintaining peace and tranquility in the border areas.” On
the actual dispute of the long border, the SRs undertook a “comprehensive
review” of previous rounds of talks and expressed “satisfaction on the progress
made in the negotiations”. They also recommitted to the three-step process to
“seek a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable resolution of the border
question at an early date”. “The Special Representatives continued the
discussions to reach a mutually acceptable framework for resolution of the
Boundary Question on the basis of the Agreement on the Political Parameters
and Guiding Principles,” the communique said. Since the SR talks are not just
limited to the border anymore, they encompassed the entire gamut of bilateral
relations, as they talked of expanding linkages between Indian states and
Chinese provinces through sister-city and sister-province mechanism. “The two
sides exchanged views on regional and global issues of mutual interest and
agreed to enhance their consultations on counter-terrorism, maritime security,
climate change, UN reform and civil nuclear energy cooperation,” it added.
Source:
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/India-China-Agree-on-Steps-for-BorderPeace/2015/03/25/article2729034.ece
II
Homeland Security
*
Shaheen-3 missile to cover Indian second strike from Andaman:
Lt General Khalid Kidwai:
Shaheen-3, Khalid Kidwai, Nuclear capability, India, Pakistan, Andaman and
Nicobar Island, Nuclear weapon, NSG, Carnegie International Nuclear Policy
Conference, US, SPD, Nuclear program, Pakistan has developed the 2,750 km
range Shaheen-3 missile to prevent India from gaining a second-strike nuclear
capability from Andaman and Nicobar islands, said Lt General (retd) Khalid
Kidwai, former head of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons division. Addressing the
Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference 2015 in Washington DC,
Kidwai said one sided policies of the United States favouring India – like the NSG
exemption for the nuclear deal – have been a destabilizing factor for South Asia.
These US policies are unhelpful and unacceptable to Pakistan, he said....
Source: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/shaheen-3-missile-to-cover-indian-secondstrike-from-andaman-former-head-of-pakistans-nuclear-weapons/
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