IKB-DEF-MAY 04, 2015 - Indicia Research & Advisory

Indicia Knowledge Brief
A Daily Assessment on Indian Defence and Internal/Homeland Security
May 04, 2015.
Primary aims of Indicia Daily Brief are two-fold. First, it distills infinite information into a
capsule form, thus saving precious time of its clients. Second, it tries to link micro-events
to larger strategic canvas through its analyses, thus providing support knowledge for
better understanding and decision-making.
Indicia Analysis of the Day
After the Indian government struck a partial deal to buy only 36 Rafale
fighter aircraft, the multi-billion deal for 36 Rafale fighter jets could see
French defence major Dassault Aviation entering into a joint venture with
state-run HAL or any private player to set up a base in New Delhi for
augmenting its existing production line.
In the light of various cyber breaches that have put internal security at
risk, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) in
association with Gujarat Technological University (GTU) has decided to
set up a Cyber Security Center, called as 'e-Raksha Research Center'.
I. National Defence and Security:
Rafale deal: Dassault likely to enter into a joint venture with Indian firm:
The multi-billion deal for 36 Rafale fighter jets could see French defence major
Dassault Aviation entering into a joint venture with state-run HAL or any private
player to set up a base in New Delhi for augmenting its existing production line.
Defence sources said such a step, if taken will not only allow the French firm to
ramp up its production rate but will help it to meet offset obligations in India,
likely to be 30-50 per cent of the sales value. Considered as the first major push
under 'Make in India' category in defence sector, the approach will also mean
that the French company would stand a better chance in case the Indian
government decides to go for more Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft later
than the initial 36 agreed. It will allow Dassault Aviation to set up manufacturing
facilities in India to augment its existing production line in Merignac in France
under a joint venture with HAL or a private player of its choice. From the
operation and sustainment perspective also, creating of these facilities will help
the IAF, the sources said. These issues among others would be discussed during
the forthcoming visit of French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on May 6
with his Indian counterpart Manohar Parrikar and National Security Advisor Ajit
Doval, they said. The Minister is flying down on May 5 from Qatar to firm up the
modalities as India wants the fighter aircraft as soon as possible. "This visit will
focus on firming up the broad parameters for the deal under which the contract
would eventually be inked," the sources said. French sources said they "are open
to any idea" but insisted that nothing has been fixed as yet. "We will have to see
how the meeting will go and then get a feedback to actually decide what can be
done. We are open to all ideas. Something will have to be done," they said when
asked about the plans for a joint venture. The production rate of Dassault
Aviation for Rafale stands at about 1 aircraft per month. However, the company
has bagged three major contracts this year totalling to 84 aircraft, all of which
have to be delivered fast....
Source: http://ibnlive.in.com/news/rafale-deal-dassault-likely-to-enter-into-a-joint-venture-with-indianfirm/543523-3.html
*
DRDO and GTU to Set up Cyber Security Cell 'e-Raksha Research
Center'
Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) in association with
Gujarat Technological University (GTU) today decided to set up a Cyber Security
Center, called as 'e-Raksha Research Center'. The announcement was made by
Satish Kumar, distinguished scientist and chief controller of research and
development, DRDO, stated in a release issued by GTU. "We have to take care of
security dimensions while developing technology. We have to compete with the
latest technology around the world. DRDO has 27,000 staff and 46 labs all over
the India, which will be great opportunity for students of GTU to work with
DRDO," he said. He also said that DRDO is planning to set up 7 to 8 such
'Technology Development Research Centers' across India, including at IITBombay, IIT-Kanpur and Jadavpur University. The initiative has been taken up
under DRDO-academia interface. The first such center under the series will be eRaksha Research Center at GTU, it said. Kumar also said that India needs to
compete with latest technology being developed around the world. GTU Vice
Chancellor Akshai Aggarwal said that it is time to develop innovative models and
collaborate with other organisations for better results. The proposed centre will
have 5 ultra-modern labs. The purpose of the centre is to provide testing,
certification and continuous assessment, GTU's research advisor Pradeep
Srivastava was quoted as saying in the release. Former Chhattisgarh Governor
Shekhar Dutt, former Deputy National Security Advisor S D Pradhan also
attended the meeting.
Source:
http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/DRDO-and-GTU-to-Set-up-Cyber-Security-Cell-eRaksha-Research-Center/2015/05/04/article2795947.ece
*
Interceptor missile tested 7 times, DRDO’s Rajinikanth moment
still far:
DRDO’s promises and seven tests notwithstanding, the plan to put a nuclear
missile defence shield over Delhi remains a work in progress. The unsuccessful
test of an interceptor missile last month swung the spotlight back on the
proposed Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system. Think of Rajinikanth firing a
bullet to destroy the bullet fired by the villain in mid-air. That’s what a BMD
system does: it provides a city with a protective shield where an incoming enemy
ballistic missile is shot down by interceptor missiles. Besides the interceptors, a
BMD consists of radars — satellite-, ground-, and sea-based — to detect and
track a missile and its warhead, data communication links to pass on the
information, and a command and control system. DRDO first spoke of a BMD
system in December 2007. All building blocks for Phase 1 of a two-layered, fully
integrated system were to be in place by 2010. In March 2010, Dr V K Saraswat
of DRDO promised initial systems deployment by 2013. On May 7, 2012, DRDO
declared it had developed a Missile Defence Shield that could be put in place at
short notice at two selected locations in the country, presumably Delhi and
Mumbai. The system would be able to tackle incoming ballistic missiles of range
up to 2,000 km. DRDO also said that long-range tracking radars, real-time datalink and mission control systems needed for the perationalisation of the BMD
had been “realised”. The fact is the BMD system is at the moment not even close
to being put into operation. Last month’s unsuccessful test at the Chandipur
range was the seventh time the BMD interceptor missile has been tested. It was
its second failed test, although the first failure was not of an interceptor, but due
to a faulty target missile. Washington-based emerging and space technologies
expert Dr Bharath Gopalaswamy said, “Interceptor technologies are testintensive and never foolproof. We have to wait until DRDO releases the data for
these tests — which I suspect they never will — but for the moment, I would
contextualise this as part of a routine test phase.” A senior DRDO official told The
Indian Express that they hoped to conduct another test within a couple of
months. “It is part of the development process. This was the first time we
launched the interceptor missile from a canister. The target was also a more
difficult one than the simulated Prithvi missiles used earlier,” the DRDO official
said. According to Gopalaswamy, this is something to be expected with hit-to-kill
technologies. “Dr Saraswat (former DRDO chief) declared missile defence
capabilities as operational but the failure in such tests exposes the vulnerabilities
in the system,” he said. According to Air Marshal (retd) M Matheswaran, “a
development trial by DRDO will not result in an operational system so soon. We
can only expect to get a technology demonstrator at the end of the ongoing tests.
Even the US took three decades to produce a BMD system. A fully mature BMD
system is at least a decade away. The political leadership must be made aware of
this reality”. The BMD system was proposed to India’s political leadership by Dr
APJ Abdul Kalam in the mid-1990s, a former cabinet secretary told The Indian
Express. It was triggered by Pakistan’s acquisition of M-11 missiles from China.
The proposal was to provide cover for Delhi, Mumbai and two other strategically
important sites. DRDO is believed to have started work on the programme in
1999....
Source: http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/interceptor-missile-tested-7-times-drdos-rajinikanthmoment-still-far/
*
Indian 15B Project Navy Destroyers—Too Little, Too Late:
Creation of a batch of destroyers under project 15A and the recent launching of
the first destroyer in the series 15B are undoubtedly a sign of success of the
Indian defense industry India is making progress in its endeavor to emerge as a
formidable military-industrial power. However, a comparison of these
construction programmes of large destroyers with similar Chinese programmes
clearly demonstrates that attempts to maintain parity in the naval race with
China are potentially ruinous for India at least for now, says Vasily Kashin, expert
at the Center for Strategic and Technological Analysis. Destroyers of the Kolkata
class and Improved Kolkata class (Projects 15A and 15B), which include the
recently Launched INS Visakhapatnam, are well armed. They are equipped with
16 powerful supersonic anti-ship missiles Brahmos developed jointly with
Russia, and air defense systems Barak NG produced together with Israel. These
ships have radars and electronic equipment of Israeli and Russian origin. More
than 65% of the cost of INS Visakhapatnam is covered by Indian equipment and
materials. However, basically these are low-tech components, including steel for
the body of the ship. India has launched one destroyer in the project 15A, is
completing the construction of two more, and is planning to build a total of 4
destroyers in the Project 15B. However, recent publications on the theme
“Beware of China” are an exaggeration, says Vasily Kashin. Latest Indian
destroyers can be considered roughly equivalent to the Chinese ships designed
under the project 052C. The first such destroyer “Lanzhou” was inducted into the
South China Fleet 10 years ago in 2005. Ships of the project 052C are equipped
with radars with active phased antenna arrays. The Chinese ship also carries
more anti-aircraft missiles, which have a longer range. Anti-ship weaponry may
be weaker than in the Indian ships, but with the advent of China’s new
generation of supersonic cruise missiles like YJ-18, it can be reinforced at the
next upgrade. Thus, we are talking about an approximately ten-year lag behind
China. But in fact the situation is even worse. 052C are almost entirely Chinesebuilt ships. The first few still carried Ukrainian turbines, just like the Indian
destroyers, but since then China has mastered independent production of such
turbines in Harbin....
Source: http://idrw.org/indian-15b-project-navy-destroyers-too-little-too-late/
*
Let’s not be in a hurry to resolve border dispute with China:
Arun Shourie:
China sees India as a potential nuisance, let’s not be in a hurry to resolve the
border dispute when the distance is as vast as it is now, Arun Shourie tells
National Editor (News Operations) Rakesh Sinha in an interview days before
Narendra Modi leaves for China.
How do you view the Prime Minister’s forthcoming visit to China?
Arguably the principal achievement of Mr Narendra Modi has thus far been the
energy and the clear focus he has brought to foreign policy. A distinguished
academic was pointing out the other day that the backdrop of each of the PM’s
visits abroad has been China: those to Japan, to Fiji, to Australia, to the two
Pacific Powers — US and Canada; the fact that our President was in Vietnam on
the eve of President Xi’s visit to India; the Prime Minister’s visits to countries in
the Indian Ocean. The GCF — the Greatest Common Factor — in these has been
one: China. Hence, a clear focus.
Does this suggest that he sees China as the main problem for India?
I certainly cannot say how he sees China. But the fact is that, while Pakistan is the
immediate problem, China is the principal challenge in the long run — and in
part Pakistan is a problem because of China. China’s great skill has been the
manipulation of power and the symbols of power. It has a definite view of its
place in the world: that it must be the dominant power in Asia now, and the
principal power in the world tomorrow.
And don’t forget the success that they have already achieved towards these
goals. China is the most significant factor in international calculations today: its
economy is five times that of India; its foreign exchange reserves are ten times
ours; its defence spending is three-and-a-half times that of Japan. No country in
Asia, and much farther afield, takes a decision without factoring in China’s likely
reaction. On the contrary, even allies of the USA are only too willing to head for
the Chinese door disregarding reactions of the US: look how 42 countries have
already signed up for the Infrastructure Bank that will be dominated by China....
Source:
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/at-the-least-we-should-not-fool-ourselvesarun-shourie/
*
Indian Navy makes right moves:
The recent launch of INS Visakhapatnam is a landmark development in India’s
aim to transform its navy from a buyer to a builder. From the arrival of INS Delhi
two decades ago to INS Visakhapatnam now, there has been a steady focus on
indigenisation, and rightly so. It is time that the levels of indigenisation are
ramped up, especially considering that there has been a sea-change in geopolitics of the region around the subcontinent. No doubt, time, money, resources
and technology are stumbling blocks in achieving optimal levels of indigenisation
but these need to be necessarily overcome. In this context, it is indeed a matter of
pride that the Directorate General Naval Design and the Defence Research and
Development Organisation have gone all out to modernise the Indian Navy.
Starting with the Delhi-class ships, the Organisation came out with the Shivalikclass followed by the stealth-featuring Visakhapatnam series. Complementing
this are the giant strides in developing the indigenous nuclear submarine INS
Arihant and the aircraft carrier at Kochi. While the Indian Navy in recent times
has been beset with a string of accidents and deaths causing conster-nation
among the forces and the general public, the launch of Visakhapatnam is an
opportunity for the naval arm to redeem itself and show it is capable of turning
things around. There are at least 40 indigenous ships and submarines under
various stages of construction, for example. When the naval variant of the Light
Combat Aircraft is commissioned, that will be another huge step forward in the
march towards indigenisation. The policy makers need to be complimented as
the development of the Indian Navy is not an exercise in luxury, it is rooted in
necessity. Given that India’s coastline is a massive 7,615 km with its exclusive
economic zone stretching across 2.02 million sq m, it is imperative that its navy
reflect the challenges that this poses to the country’s security and defence
preparedness. Add to this the newfound activity and the focus on the region by
China and Pakistan, you have all the ingredients needed for a well-rounded
Indian Navy. A positive spin-off of India’s move to indigenise its navy is the
opportunity it opens up for the private sector. Already several Indian companies
have forayed into defence production and the addition of a naval component can
only be the beginning of good times ahead. With all governments, irrespective of
which political party heading them, being aware of the need and importance of
the Indian Navy and prepared to infuse funds to back up the vision, the country
should see a powerful naval arm in the near future.
Source: http://www.deccanherald.com/content/475477/indian-navy-makes-right-moves.html
*
Uncertainty dogs a leaderless DRDO:
A sense of drift is palpable within the Defence Research & Development
Organisation (DRDO), which has been without a leader for three months since
the ouster of its widely respected chief, Avinash Chander, on January 31. On that
day, Defence Secretary R K Mathur was given additional charge of Chander's post
of Secretary, Defence R&D, for three months. That period expired on April 30.
Mathur had held charge of only one of the three posts that Chander occupied that of Secretary Defence R&D. The other two posts - Director General, DRDO,
and Scientific Advisor to the Raksha Mantri - have lain vacant for three months.
The defence ministry is not alone in having key positions without incumbents.
There has been no Chief Information Commissioner since August 22, and no
Chief Vigilance Commissioner since September 28. Without a chief, there are
problems in coordinating between the DRDO's seven technology clusters, each
relating to a specific subject - e.g. aeronautics, missiles or naval systems. While
cluster heads. called directors general, can function independently within their
clusters, major development projects involve several clusters. Among the
programmes suffering from this lack of leadership is the Tejas Light Combat
Aircraft (LCA) project. While the DRDO's Aeronautical Development Agency
oversees the Tejas project, it has no authority over the four technology clusters
that feed into the LCA project. That coordination was always facilitated by the
DRDO chief, who personally oversaw the LCA programme. Another problem, say
senior DRDO scientists, is professional insecurity caused by Chander's
unceremonious removal. On November 28, the defence ministry had granted him
an 18-month service extension to head the DRDO till May 31, 2016. Forty-five
days later, that extension was withdrawn. The insecurity is most obvious among
junior scientists, most of whom looked to Chander as an icon of the DRDO's
successful missile programme. "With such an accomplished scientist removed so
arbitrarily, what job security do we have?" wonders a young scientist bitterly.
Nor is there any clarity about who might succeed Chander. Defence Minister
Manohar Parrikar had said while removing Chander, he wanted someone good
from the DRDO who has the urge for development. Parrikar also stated he
wanted a younger scientist to head DRDO....
Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/uncertainty-dogs-a-leaderless-drdo115050300830_1.html
II
Homeland Security
*
8 Assam Rifles jawans killed in a militant ambush in Nagaland:
At least eight Assam Rifles personnels have been killed and six others injured in
an ambush by suspected NSCN (K) militants in Mon district of Nagaland on May
03 afternoon. Four other jawans of the paramilitary force are reported missing.
A security source said, "A group of 18 jawans of 23rd Assam Rifles was travelling
in a truck to fetch water from a stream near Changlangsu village at around 2.30
pm when they were ambushed upon by militants, who we suspect are NSCN (K)
cadres. Three jawans died instantly and reinforcements were rushed in
immediately. There was retaliatory firing from Assam Rifles and reports received
so far say that eight jawans and a militant have died. Six jawans have also
sustained injuries and four others are missing." This is the second attack by
NSCN (K) since the outfit pulled out of a 15-year old ceasefire agreement with
the centre last month. On April 2, three army jawans were killed and three others
wounded when NSCN (K) ambushed an army convoy in Arunachal Pradesh's
Tirap district. On May 02 four NSCN-K cadres were killed in an encounter with
Army at Kamlengching village under Nungba police station in Tamenglong
district....
Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/8-Assam-Rifles-jawans-killed-in-a-militant-ambush-inNagaland/articleshow/47141323.cms
*
Army busts two militant hideouts in Tangdhar sector of J&K:
Army on May 03 busted two militant hideouts near the Line of Control in
Tangdhar sector in Kupwara district, seizing a cache of arms and ammunition.
"Based on a specific input, a search operation was launched in forest area of
Gaggadhari Bahik in Tangdhar sector leading to recovery of a huge cache of
arms, ammunition and war like stores," a defence spokesman said here. The first
hideout yielded six Pistols, 12 pistol magazines, three Chinese grenades and one
compass, he said. The spokesman said one AK 47 rifle, two AK-47 rifle
magazines, 1590 rounds, one Pikka Rifle, two RPGs, one Disposable Rocket
Launcher and one UBGL grenade were seized from the second hideout.
Source:
http://zeenews.india.com/news/jammu-and-kashmir/army-busts-two-militant-hideouts-intangdhar-sector-of-jk_1589386.html
*
NIA looking for Afghan national in ISIS case of Mumbai youths:
An Afghan businessman is believed to be allegedly indoctrinating youth from
Maharashtra to join dreaded ISIS, claims National Investigation Agency (NIA)
which has sent its first judicial requests in the case to Afghanistan seeking details
of the person. The Afghan national, whose name has been withheld, was running
business of dry fruits in India and allegedly approached the four youths from
Kalyan area neighbouring Mumbai and brainwashed them to join ranks of ISIS
terror group, official sources said. The man had mysteriously disappeared after
NIA arrested Areeb Majeed when he was deported from Turkey to India last
November. The port of exit of the Afghan national was found out to be from Delhi
in December last year, the sources said. They said Letters Rogatory, sent to
Afghanistan, has been cleared by the Home Ministry and will be issued by the
competent court this week. The NIA request to the Afghan government includes
verification of his address, his complete bank account details, associates in that
country and the Gulf and call data records, they said. Majeed was arrested by NIA
upon his return from Iraq and booked under sections 16, 18 and 20 of the
Unlawful Activities Prevention Act and Section 125 of the Indian Penal Code. The
three UAPA sections stand for commission or conspiring to commit a terrorist
act and for being a member of a terrorist organisation, while Section 125 of the
IPC relates to waging war against a nation which is in alliance with the
government. Majeed landed in Mumbai on November 28 after spending nearly
six months in Iraq, following which he was immediately detained by the security
agencies and later arrested. Last May, four youths from Kalyan, including Majeed,
had left the country to visit holy places in West Asia but disappeared thereafter.
They were suspected to have joined ISIS. According to police, the four
engineering students had flown to Baghdad on May 23 as part of a group of 22
pilgrims to visit religious shrines in Iraq....
Source:
http://zeenews.india.com/news/maharashtra/nia-looking-for-afghan-national-in-isis-case-ofmumbai-youths_1589180.html
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