Index Return Monitor

Index Return Monitor
June 10, 2015
It’s All Good
S&P Price
CESI Level
BRAD BROWN, CFA
INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
Bad news is good news. At least, this is the new paradigm we have come to know over the past
few months as soft economic data out of the U.S. has generally been cheered by the equity
markets. May was another example of this, as the S&P 500 Index rose 1% despite mixed economic
readings. While U.S. unemployment and housing continued to improve, consumer sentiment and
business prospects began the month on a weak note. U.S. industrial production dropped for a fifth
consecutive month as the strong U.S. dollar
Stocks Rise Despite Weak Data
continued to pressure American exports and
S&P 500
as oil producers continued to curtail their
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI)
production in response to low oil prices.
2150
60
With the weak data extending beyond
40
the initial soft patch in the first quarter,
2100
20
market watchers have been questioning
0
whether the earlier data was transitory or not.
2050
Such mixed data points would normally
-20
worry investors; in the current environment,
-40
2000
they have been positively received as many
-60
market watchers suggest this will force the
1950
-80
U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain the
Dec Jan
Feb Mar Apr May
current zero interest rate policy longer than
Source: Bloomberg
initially expected – keeping borrowing costs
for corporate America and consumers lower for (even) longer. With a June interest rate hike by the
Federal Open Markets Committee seemingly off the table, speculation had mounted that
September would be the month of choice; now, however, with Q1/2015 U.S. GDP growth recently
revised down to -0.7%, some argue that the September meeting may also be too soon for a hike.
Across the Atlantic, positive European data is demonstrating how good news can also be
good. The current recovery and positive data out of the region have resulted in yields moving
higher as German Bunds — the yardstick in European bond markets — fell and the risk-on trade
re-emerged. This, in turn, triggered a rise in U.S. yields. U.S. corporate earnings also buoyed U.S.
equities in May. While the overall results were not spectacular, they were better than the market
had anticipated, helping the S&P 500 recover from the early-month soft patch. In Canada, things
were a little different as falling commodity prices dragged the resource-laden S&P/TSX
Composite Index lower.
So what have we learned about the current market environment? Bad economic data is
good and good economic data is also good; while this is clearly not a sustainable trend, it will
likely continue until the market has come to a consensus on the timing of the next Fed move and
investors get a grasp of all the underlying geopolitical, economic and commodity-related issues
currently affecting the flow of the financial markets. In the meantime, we can expect more
volatility as investors continue to position themselves for the latter months of the year, when we
will likely have some answers to the many questions currently overhanging the markets.
Bellwether Indices
See Legal Disclaimer and Important
Disclosure Footnotes at the end of this
report for disclosures, including potential
conflicts of interest.
S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX
S&P 500 INDEX
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
Price
31-May-15
15,014
2,107
18,011
5,070
1 mo
-1.4
1.0
1.0
2.6
Price Performance (% Change)
3 mo
6 mo
12 mo
-1.4
1.8
2.8
0.1
1.9
9.6
-0.7
1.0
7.7
2.1
5.8
19.5
YTD
2.6
2.4
1.1
7.1
Source: Bloomberg
www.cibcwoodgundy.com
Investment Strategy Group Index Return Monitor
Canadian & U.S. Yield Curve Steepens
Canada & U.S. Yields
European Bunds sold off in the
month of May triggering a selloff of U.S. treasuries, which
pushed yields higher. Nearly all
yields moved higher with the
exception of the shorter end of
the Canadian yield curve. Both
the U.S. and Canada saw their
respective yield curve steepen
during the month.
3-month Canada T-Bills
Canada 5yr Notes
Canada 10yr Notes
Canada 30yr Bonds
US
US
US
US
3-month T-Bills
5yr Treasuries
10yr Treasuries
30yr Treasuries
31-May-15
0.61
0.89
1.62
2.21
-1 mo
0.66
0.98
1.58
2.18
Yield as of
-3 mo
0.57
0.73
1.30
1.92
-6 mo
0.91
1.38
1.86
2.42
-12 mo
0.93
1.53
2.25
2.78
0.00
1.49
2.12
2.88
0.00
1.43
2.03
2.74
0.01
1.50
1.99
2.59
0.01
1.48
2.16
2.89
0.03
1.54
2.48
3.33
Source: Bloomberg
Greenback Strengthens Despite Weaker Economic Data
The U.S. dollar gained against
both the loonie and the euro in
May, despite some weaker-thanexpected U.S. economic data.
The two bright spots on the data
front were the U.S. housing &
unemployment numbers, which
continued to improve. The U.S.
added 223,000 new jobs in April,
which was generally in-line with
consensus.
Currency Moves
Canadian vs. U.S. Dollar
Euro vs. Canadian Dollar
Euro vs. U.S. Dollar
U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen
Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar
Level
31-May-15
0.8030
1.3686
1.0986
124.1500
96.9070
1 mo
-3.0%
1.0%
-2.1%
4.0%
2.4%
3 mo
0.5%
-2.2%
-1.9%
3.8%
1.7%
Change
6 mo
-8.3%
-3.7%
-11.8%
4.7%
9.7%
12 mo
-12.9%
-7.5%
-19.4%
22.0%
20.6%
YTD
-6.7%
-2.7%
-9.2%
3.6%
7.4%
Source: Bloomberg
Lumber Rebounds; WTI’s Discount To Brent Narrows
Commodities
Lumber prices recovered in May
after a long period of poor
performance. Oil pushed lower
and the spread between Brent
crude oil and West Texas
Intermediate oil narrowed. Gold
and silver gained some ground
while base metals fell.
RJ CRB Commodity Index
Gold Spot US$/oz
Silver Spot US$/oz
Brent Crude Oil
West Texas Intermediate Oil
NYMEX Natural gas
Lumber
Copper 3-month
Nickel 3-month
Aluminum 3-month
Zinc 3-month
Level
31-May-15
223.18
1190.55
16.75
61.86
60.30
2.64
274.10
2.73
5.72
0.79
0.99
-1 mo
229.49
1184.37
16.15
64.60
60.71
2.75
256.30
2.87
6.33
0.87
1.06
-3 mo
224.08
1213.22
16.60
61.14
55.44
2.73
297.20
2.67
6.39
0.82
0.94
Price as of
-6 mo
-12 mo
254.37
305.48
1167.41 1249.73
15.46
18.82
74.40
110.40
67.26
92.89
4.09
4.54
327.70
312.30
2.88
3.10
7.38
8.73
0.91
0.83
1.00
0.93
YTD %
-2.95
0.48
6.67
7.90
7.18
-8.55
-17.22
-4.52
-16.70
-6.07
0.46
Source: Bloomberg
2
June 10, 2015
Investment Strategy Group Index Return Monitor
U.S. Stock Market Outperformance Stronger In C$ Terms
Index Returns In Canadian Dollars
The
U.S.
dollar’s
strength
exacerbated the U.S. equity
indices’
outperformance
in
Canadian dollar terms. The S&P
500’s 1.0% climb last month
translated into a 4.2% gain in
Canadian dollars, outperforming
the TSX by a whopping 560 basis
points.
S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX
S&P 500 INDEX
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
BLOOMBERG EUROPEAN 500
MSCI EAFE
MSCI WORLD
MSCI EMERGING MARKETS
Price Performance % Change
3 mo
6 mo
12 mo
-1.4
1.8
2.8
-0.4
11.2
25.8
-1.2
10.2
23.7
1.6
15.4
37.2
-1.0
9.8
6.6
0.2
12.6
11.4
-0.1
11.6
19.1
0.9
9.0
12.2
1 mo
-1.4
4.2
4.1
5.8
1.4
2.1
3.2
-1.2
YTD
2.6
9.7
8.3
14.7
12.5
14.7
11.5
12.5
Source: Bloomberg, as of May 31, 2015
Aggressive Growth Mandates Lead Once Again
Long-Term Strategic Asset Allocation Investor Profiles (All In C$)
Investor profiles with heavier
equity weightings outperformed
again last month, as investors
dismissed weak economic data
and resumed risk-on positions.
(Global Equity/Cdn. Equity/Bonds/Cash)
CAPITAL PRESERVATION
(10 / 5 / 65 / 20)
INCOME
(20 / 15 / 55 / 10)
INCOME & GROWTH
(30 / 20 / 45 / 5)
GROWTH
(45 / 25 / 30 / 0)
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH
(60 / 30 / 10 / 0)
1 mo
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.6
Performance % Change
3 mo
6 mo
12 mo
-1.0
4.1
7.1
-0.9
5.1
8.7
-0.8
6.0
10.1
-0.6
7.3
12.2
-0.4
8.4
13.9
YTD
2.1
3.9
5.3
7.0
8.4
Source: Bloomberg and FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets, as of May 31, 2015
S&P Outperforms Canadian Bonds; TSX Underperforms
Asset Class Returns
1 mo
The S&P 500 outperformed the
TSX on a total return basis,
primarily due to weakening
commodity
prices.
Canadian
bonds provided investors with
marginal gains in the month,
with the exception of the long
term index.
Total Return % Change
3 mo 6 mo 12 mo
YTD
Index Yield %
31-May-15
2.8
2.0
EQUITIES
S&P/TSX Composite Total Return
S&P 500 Total Return
-1.2
1.3
-0.7
0.6
3.3
3.0
5.8
11.8
3.8
3.2
BONDS
FTSE TMX
FTSE TMX
FTSE TMX
FTSE TMX
0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.4
-1.5
-3.4
-1.3
-0.1
3.9
12.4
13.6
9.4
7.1
12.7
7.3
3.3
2.9
4.2
3.3
1.9
Canada
Canada
Canada
Canada
Bond Universe Index
Long Term Index
Mid Term Index
Short Term Index
Source: Bloomberg and FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets, as of May 31, 2015
3
June 10, 2015
Investment Strategy Group Index Return Monitor
Health Care Heads Higher; Base Metals Retreat
S&P/TSX Sector Returns
Health Care was the best
performing sector on the TSX,
reclaiming the lead position it
enjoyed in March, after giving up
the top spot to the energy
sector in April. Year to date, the
health care sector has gained
66.3%;
this
is
due
almost
entirely
to
Valeant
Pharmaceuticals’ 83.5% weight
in the Canadian health care
sector and its 78% year-to-date
price return.
The base metals sub sector took
a step back this month as base
metals prices pushed lower.
GICS Sectors
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
- Integrated O&G
- O&G Expl. & Prod.
- Pipeline
Financials
- Banks
- Insurance
- REITs
Health Care
Industrials
Info Technology
Materials
- Gold
- Base Metals
- Fertilizer
Telecom Services
Utilities
REIT Returns
REIT Index
REIT Total Return Index
Index
Weight
Price Index
31-May-15
1 mo
Price Performance % Change
3 mo
6 mo
12 mo
6.7
3.6
20.6
4.7
7.3
6.8
34.7
21.4
5.6
2.4
6.1
7.9
2.4
11.0
4.5
1.6
2.7
4.7
2.1
2012.6
3823.4
2643.9
3141.9
2007.5
2577.0
2281.1
2667.5
1179.1
1327.6
3369.5
2274.2
209.4
2083.8
1327.2
5188.4
6262.0
1282.7
1956.4
4.9
1.6
-6.3
-8.2
-6.8
-4.4
-1.7
-2.2
1.3
-5.6
11.4
-3.5
0.2
-0.8
0.3
-9.9
0.8
1.7
-3.2
0.2
-2.1
-0.7
-3.8
0.5
-0.3
-0.9
-0.8
2.2
-6.5
19.5
-7.9
-3.4
-8.1
-9.5
-2.5
-11.9
-1.9
-4.3
9.4
9.6
-1.8
-4.1
-3.6
4.2
-3.8
-7.2
-1.3
-2.4
67.4
-6.3
13.8
6.1
8.7
-2.8
5.3
-0.9
-2.4
27.0
39.8
-20.1
-19.7
-33.8
5.7
4.9
0.3
12.7
-0.7
96.8
6.5
39.3
-4.2
-8.8
-20.8
9.4
5.2
4.1
7.0
1.5
-1.7
-5.1
2.9
-4.4
-0.6
-3.0
0.6
1.3
66.3
-5.7
8.5
5.3
8.6
2.8
2.3
0.6
-0.3
160.3
374.4
-5.6
-5.2
-6.5
-5.3
-2.4
0.4
-0.7
5.0
1.3
3.6
YTD
Source: Bloomberg
Japan Outpaces Europe; Emerging Markets Lose Ground
International Indices
Japan’s Nikkei 225 led all other
Asian and European indices in
May. The index hit a 15-year
high and saw 11 straight
positive trading sessions in the
month — its longest streak in
nearly
27
years.
Strong
economic and corporate data
helped boost Japanese equities.
Emerging markets were down in
May as weaker oil and the
strong U.S. dollar weighed on
Latin American equities.
Bloomberg Euro 500
FTSE Eurotop 100
England FTSE 100
German DAX
French CAC 40
MSCI World
MSCI EAFE
MSCI Emerging Mkts.
Japan Nikkei 225
Hong Kong Hang Seng
Australia S&P/ASX 200
Taiwan Weighted
India Sensex 30 Index
Price Index
31-May-15
270
3,170
1 mo
0.5
0.5
Price Performance % Change
3 mo
6 mo
12 mo
1.4
14.0
15.2
1.0
12.4
13.8
YTD
15.6
15.0
6,984
11,414
5,008
1,779
1,899
1,004
20,563
27,424
5,777
9,701
27,828
0.3
-0.4
-0.8
0.1
-1.0
-4.2
5.3
-2.5
-0.2
-1.2
3.0
0.5
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.7
1.4
9.4
10.5
-2.6
0.8
-5.2
6.4
16.4
17.2
4.1
7.0
5.0
17.8
16.2
6.8
4.2
1.2
3.9
14.4
14.1
2.3
3.2
0.0
17.8
14.3
8.7
5.6
-3.0
2.0
14.8
10.8
3.7
-2.9
-2.3
40.5
18.8
5.2
6.9
14.9
Source: Bloomberg
4
June 10, 2015
Investment Strategy Group Index Return Monitor
U.S. Small Caps Outperform
Small Cap Stocks Versus Large Cap Stocks
U.S. equities saw significant
gains relative to their Canadian
counterparts. While U.S. small
caps generated the largest
absolute gains, U.S. midcap
stocks enjoyed the largest
positive outperformance; the
S&P
400
Midcap
Index
outperformed
its
Canadian
counterpart by 320 basis points.
CANADA
S&P/TSX 60 INDEX
S&P/TSX MIDCAP INDEX
S&P/TSX SMALLCAP INDEX
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP INDEX
U.S.
S&P 100 INDEX
S&P 500 INDEX
RUSSELL 1000 INDEX
S&P 400 MIDCAP INDEX
S&P 600 SMALLCAP INDEX
RUSSELL 2000 INDEX
Price Index
31-May-15
1 mo
Price Performance % Change
3 mo
6 mo
12 mo
875.0
978.3
600.0
692.5
-1.3
-1.6
0.1
-0.5
-1.7
-0.6
0.3
-2.0
1.4
3.1
2.9
-6.7
4.6
-2.1
-9.9
-29.6
2.4
3.4
3.6
-0.4
926.1
2107.4
1176.7
1524.7
712.9
1246.5
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.4
2.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
1.2
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.9
2.4
5.7
5.3
6.2
8.6
9.6
9.8
10.6
9.2
9.9
2.0
2.4
2.8
5.0
2.6
3.5
YTD
Source: Bloomberg
Canadian Value Underperforms All Others
Style Indices
Growth investing was preferred
by investors over the course of
the past month, although both
investment disciplines generally
generated positive returns. The
lone negative return came from
the Dow Jones Canada Value
Index
Price Index
31-May-15
1 mo
Price Performance % Change
3 mo
6 mo
12 mo
GROWTH
DJ CANADA GROWTH INDEX
S&P BARRA GROWTH INDEX
RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH INDX
S&P MID 400 BARRA GROWTH
S&P 600 BARRA GROWTH INDX
RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDX
1828.3
1167.6
1011.0
693.9
526.4
772.9
0.1
1.6
1.2
2.5
2.1
3.6
-1.3
0.2
0.4
2.0
1.2
2.3
12.9
3.0
3.9
7.1
8.4
10.1
24.9
12.7
13.0
13.1
12.7
17.0
9.5
4.1
5.2
7.0
5.3
7.0
VALUE
DJ CANADA VALUE INDEX
S&P BARRA VALUE INDEX
RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDX
S&P MID 400 BARRA VALUE
S&P 600 BARRA VALUE INDX
RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDX
3258.2
932.4
1032.5
525.5
474.3
1521.7
-2.4
0.4
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
-2.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-3.7
0.8
0.8
4.0
2.3
2.4
-2.9
6.2
6.5
7.9
5.7
3.0
-1.6
0.5
0.4
2.7
-0.3
-0.1
YTD
Source: Bloomberg
5
June 10, 2015
Investment Strategy Group Index Return Monitor
Long-Term Returns
Long-Term Returns (As Of 31-May-15)
S&P/TSX Composite (price)
S&P/TSX Composite Total Return
S&P/TSX Income Trust Total Return
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Avg TR
S&P 500
S&P 500 Total Return
Nasdaq Comp
FTSE 100 Index
German DAX
France CAC 40
Japan Nikkei 225
MSCI World
MSCI (EMU) Europe
MSCI Emerging Markets
MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return
MSCI EAFE
MSCI EAFE Total Return
MSCI Far East
1 yr
2.8
5.8
9.5
7.7
10.3
9.6
11.8
19.5
2.0
14.8
10.8
40.5
3.7
-9.3
-2.3
2.7
-2.9
-0.1
12.8
2 yr
8.9
12.2
7.3
9.2
11.8
13.7
16.0
21.1
3.0
16.9
12.6
22.2
9.9
6.3
-0.2
3.8
5.6
8.8
8.6
Return %
3 yr
9.3
12.6
8.3
13.3
16.1
17.2
19.7
21.5
9.5
22.1
18.4
34.0
14.7
15.6
3.5
8.4
12.5
16.1
13.4
Change (Annualized)
5 yr
10 yr
15 yr
5.0
4.6
3.2
8.1
7.5
5.7
15.1
na
na
12.2
5.6
3.6
15.1
8.4
6.2
14.1
5.9
2.7
16.5
8.1
4.7
17.6
9.4
2.6
6.1
3.5
0.6
13.9
9.9
3.2
7.4
2.0
-1.5
16.1
6.2
1.6
10.5
4.5
1.9
5.8
1.4
0.0
1.6
6.2
5.9
5.8
8.8
na
6.8
2.7
1.1
10.4
6.0
na
6.8
3.2
0.2
20 yr
6.3
8.7
na
7.2
na
7.1
na
9.2
na
8.8
na
1.4
5.0
na
na
na
2.9
na
-0.1
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC World Markets
Long-Term Returns In Canadian Dollars (As Of 31-May-15)
S&P/TSX Composite (price)
S&P/TSX Composite Total Return
Dow Jones Industrial Average (in C$)
Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Tot. Ret. (in C$)
S&P 500 (in C$)
S&P 500 Total Return (in C$)
Russell 2000 (in C$)
Nasdaq Comp (in C$)
MSCI World (in C$)
MSCI EMU Europe (in C$)
MSCI Emerging Markets (in C$)
MSCI EAFE (in C$)
MSCI Far East (in C$)
1 yr
2.8
5.8
23.7
26.6
25.8
28.4
26.2
37.2
19.1
4.1
12.2
11.4
29.5
Return % Change (Annualized)
2 yr
3 yr
5 yr
10 yr
15 yr
8.9
9.3
5.0
4.6
3.3
12.2 12.6
8.1
7.5
5.8
19.6 20.6
16.2
5.5
2.4
22.5 23.6
19.2
8.3
4.9
24.5 24.7
18.2
5.8
1.4
27.1 27.4
20.7
8.0
3.4
23.3 25.4
17.6
7.2
5.3
32.7 29.3
21.8
9.3
1.4
20.5 22.1
14.5
4.5
0.7
16.5 23.0
9.6
1.3
-1.2
9.3
10.1
5.3
6.2
4.5
15.7 19.8
10.7
2.6
-0.2
19.0 20.7
10.7
3.1
-1.0
20 yr
6.3
8.7
6.7
na
6.6
na
7.4
8.7
4.5
na
na
2.4
-0.5
Source: Bloomberg, CIBC World Markets, Canadian Dollar-based returns
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Investment Strategy Group Index Return Monitor
Disclosures And Disclaimers
Companies Mentioned In This Report That Are Covered By CIBC World Markets (Stock prices as of 10-Jun-15)
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (2a, 2e, 2g, 4a, 4b, 7, 9) (VRX-NYSE, US$229.18, Sector Outperformer)
Key To Important Disclosure Footnotes:
1
2a
2b
2c
2d
2e
2f
2g
3a
3b
3c
4a
4b
4c
5a
5b
6a
6b
6c
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
CIBC World Markets Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company.
This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months.
This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking, securities-related services in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services from this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services from this company in the past 12 months.
This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking, non-securities-related services in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related services from this company in the past 12 months.
CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related services from this company in the past 12 months.
The CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its common equity securities.
A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Corp. research analyst who covers this company has a long position in the common equity securities of this company.
The CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its common equity securities.
A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental research analyst who covers this company has a long position in the common equity
securities of this company.
One or more members of Investment Strategy Group who was involved in the preparation of this report, and/or a member of their household(s), has a long position in the
common equity securities of this company.
CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1% or more of a class of equity securities issued by
this company.
A partner, director or officer of CIBC World Markets Inc. or any analyst involved in the preparation of this research report has provided services to this company
for remuneration in the past 12 months.
A senior executive member or director of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World
Markets Corp., or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or advisory board member of this company or one of its subsidiaries.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., has a significant credit
relationship with this company.
The equity securities of this company are restricted voting shares.
The equity securities of this company are subordinate voting shares.
The equity securities of this company are non-voting shares.
The equity securities of this company are limited voting shares.
CIBC World Markets Research Rating System
Abbreviation
Stock Ratings
SO
SP
SU
NR
R
Sector Weightings**
O
M
U
NA
Rating
Description
Sector Outperformer
Sector Performer
Sector Underperformer
Not Rated
Restricted
Stock is expected to outperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.
Stock is expected to perform in line with the sector during the next 12-18 months.
Stock is expected to underperform the sector during the next 12-18 months.
CIBC does not maintain an investment recommendation on the stock.
CIBC World Markets is restricted*** from rating the stock.
Overweight
Market Weight
Underweight
None
Sector
Sector
Sector
Sector
is expected to outperform the broader market averages.
is expected to equal the performance of the broader market averages.
is expected to underperform the broader market averages.
rating is not applicable.
**Broader market averages refer to the S&P 500 in the U.S. and the S&P/TSX Composite in Canada.
"Speculative" indicates that an investment in this security involves a high amount of risk due to volatility and/or liquidity issues.
***Restricted due to a potential conflict of interest.
"CC" indicates Commencement of Coverage. The analyst named started covering the security on the date specified.
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Investment Strategy Group Index Return Monitor
This report is issued and approved for distribution to clients in Canada by registered representatives of CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC
World Markets Inc., a subsidiary of CIBC, Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and Member of the Investment Industry
Regulatory Organization of Canada, and by its affiliates via their registered representatives. This report is not authorized for distribution in the
United States. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the
United Kingdom.
This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities
discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited.
The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into account the
investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC Wood Gundy. Recipients should consider this report
as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any,
as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of the merits and risks of investments. CIBC Wood Gundy suggests that, prior to
making an investment decision with respect to any security recommended in this report; the recipient should contact one of our client advisers
in the recipient’s jurisdiction to discuss the recipient’s particular circumstances. Non-client recipients of this report should consult with an
independent financial advisor prior to making any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents.
CIBC Wood Gundy will not treat non-client recipients as its clients by virtue of their receiving this report. Past performance is not a guarantee
of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in
this report.
Information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but CIBC
Wood Gundy does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate or complete (with the exception of
information contained in the Important Disclosures section of this report provided by CIBC World Markets or individual research analysts), and
they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of
this report and are subject to change without notice.
Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this
report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice on the tax consequences of investments. As with any
investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own independent tax adviser.
© 2015 CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure without the prior written
permission of CIBC World Markets is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution.
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June 10, 2015