MNI FX Technical Analysis Report

MNI Dollar-Asia FX Technical Analysis Report
07 July 2015
Kyle Shortland (kshortland@mni-news.com)
Contents
DOLLAR-SGD: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
2
DOLLAR-KRW: Bollinger Band Top Limiting Follow Through
3
DOLLAR-MYR: Below Myr3.7880 To Ease Bullish Pressure
4
DOLLAR-CNH: Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA
5
DOLLAR-PHP: Php45.000 Support Now Key
6
DOLLAR-THB: 21-DMA Supporting
7
DOLLAR-IDR: Bouncing Back Towards 2015 High
8
The information contained herein has been obtained from, or is based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable but we make
no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell.
Copyright © 2015 Market News International, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is prohibited.
MNI FX Technical Analysis Report | Page 2
DOLLAR-SGD: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: Sgd1.3879 - Weekly Bollinger Band Top
*RES 3: Sgd1.3769 - High Mar 31
*RES 2: Sgd1.3642 - High Apr 15
*RES 1: Sgd1.3565 - High June 29
*PRICE: Sgd1.3484 @ 2200GMT
*SUP 1: Sgd1.3437 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: Sgd1.3391 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Sgd1.3348 - Low June 23
*SUP 4: Sgd1.3264 - Low May 19
*COMMENTARY:
Despite recently pressuring the 21-DMA bears have been unable to capitalise with a break lower. Bulls
continue to look for a close above Sgd1.3565 to confirm a break of the channel top (Sgd1.3519) and shift
immediate focus to the Sgd1.3642 level. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure
and below the 55-DMA to target the 200-DMA (Sgd1.3315) with a close below the 200-DMA last seen in
Sept 2014.
The information contained herein has been obtained from, or is based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable but we make
no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell.
Copyright © 2015 Market News International, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is prohibited.
MNI FX Technical Analysis Report | Page 3
DOLLAR-KRW: Bollinger Band Top Limiting Follow Through
*RES 4: Krw1045.6 - Low Oct 29
*RES 3: Krw1143.3 - Rising daily channel top
*RES 2: Krw1136.6 - 2015 High Mar 16
*RES 1: Krw1129.9 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Krw1126.5 @ 2200GMT
*SUP 1: Krw1123.3 - Low July 6
*SUP 2: Krw1110.7 - Low June 26
*SUP 3: Krw1107.3 - Rising daily channel base
*SUP 4: Krw1102.2 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY:
The dip below the 21-DMA Friday was aggressively reversed with the relatively bullish close ensuring that
immediate focus shifts to the Krw1129.9-1136.6 region where the Bollinger band top and 2015 highs are
located. Layers of support continue to accumulate with bears now needing a close below Krw1123.3 to
ease the current bullish pressure and hint at a shift in focus back to the Krw1092.3-1110.7 region where
key DMAs are located.
The information contained herein has been obtained from, or is based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable but we make
no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell.
Copyright © 2015 Market News International, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is prohibited.
MNI FX Technical Analysis Report | Page 4
DOLLAR-MYR: Below Myr3.7880 To Ease Bullish Pressure
*RES 4: Myr3.9140 - 1.500 Fibonacci projection 3.7040-3.7880
*RES 3: Myr3.9041 - 1.382 Fibonacci projection 3.7040-3.7880
*RES 2: Myr3.8154 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Myr3.8090 - 2015 High July 6
*PRICE: Myr3.8050 @ 2200GMT
*SUP 1: Myr3.7880 - Repeated daily highs now support
*SUP 2: Myr3.7550 - Low July 3
*SUP 3: Myr3.7305 - Low July 1
*SUP 4: Myr3.7040 - Low June 19
*COMMENTARY:
2015 and record highs for the pair continued Monday despite the proximity of the Bollinger band top and
daily studies remaining at O/B levels. Focus now shifts to the weekly Bollinger band top and then Fibonacci
projections above. Initial support is now noted at Myr3.7880 where previous 2015 highs were located with a
close below needed to ease bullish pressure. Overall below Myr3.7550 is needed to shift initial focus back
to Myr3.7040.
The information contained herein has been obtained from, or is based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable but we make
no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell.
Copyright © 2015 Market News International, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is prohibited.
MNI FX Technical Analysis Report | Page 5
DOLLAR-CNH: Bulls Need Close Above 100-DMA
*RES 4: Cnh6.2607 - Low Feb 24 now resistance
*RES 3: Cnh6.2338 - Low Feb 6 now resistance
*RES 2: Cnh6.2192 - High June 12, 100-DMA
*RES 1: Cnh6.2147 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Cnh6.2110 @ 2200GMT
*SUP 1: Cnh6.2011 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: Cnh6.1977 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Cnh6.1850 - 2015 Low Apr 17
*SUP 4: Cnh6.1645 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY:
Follow through above the Bollinger band top was limited Monday with the pair pulling back from ahead of
the Cnh6.2192 level where the 100-DMA is now located. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to hint at a
bigger bounce and above Cnh6.2338 confirming a shift in focus back to Cnh6.2607. Bears continue to look
for a close below the 200-DMA to confirm a bearish bias and initially target 2015 lows.
The information contained herein has been obtained from, or is based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable but we make
no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell.
Copyright © 2015 Market News International, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is prohibited.
MNI FX Technical Analysis Report | Page 6
DOLLAR-PHP: Php45.000 Support Now Key
*RES 4: Php45.500 - 2014 High Feb 4
*RES 3: Php45.330 - Monthly high Mar 24 2014
*RES 2: Php45.257 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Php45.230 - High June 26
*PRICE: Php45.100 @ 2200GMT
*SUP 1: Php45.000 - Low July 6
*SUP 2: Php44.904 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Php44.850 - Low June 5
*SUP 4: Php44.735 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY:
Bears have so far been unable to capitalise on Friday’s close below the 21-DMA (Php45.080) although the
bounce Monday lacked follow through. In saying that, bears now need a close below Php45.000 to end
bullish hopes and to shift immediate focus back to the Php44.850 support. While Php45.000 supports bulls
now shift their focus back to the Php45.230-257 region where initial resistance and the Bollinger band top
are located.
The information contained herein has been obtained from, or is based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable but we make
no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell.
Copyright © 2015 Market News International, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is prohibited.
MNI FX Technical Analysis Report | Page 7
DOLLAR-THB: 21-DMA Supporting
*RES 4: Thb34.13 - Repeated Highs Aug-Sept 2009
*RES 3: Thb34.03 - High Sept 14 2009
*RES 2: Thb33.98 - 2015 High June 8
*RES 1: Thb33.89 - High June 29
*PRICE: Thb33.83 @ 2200GMT
*SUP 1: Thb33.72 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: Thb33.53 - Low June 10
*SUP 3: Thb33.51 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: Thb33.28 - Low May 18
*COMMENTARY:
The recovery from the Thb33.53 level sees pressure having returned layers of resistance and the 21-DMA
supporting. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to ease the renewed bullish pressure and shift
immediate focus to the key Thb33.53 support. While the 21-DMA supports bulls favour a break higher that
shifts focus to the Thb33.98-34.21 region where 2015 highs are located. The Bollinger band top (Thb33.87)
is expected to limit follow through.
The information contained herein has been obtained from, or is based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable but we make
no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell.
Copyright © 2015 Market News International, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is prohibited.
MNI FX Technical Analysis Report | Page 8
DOLLAR-IDR: Bouncing Back Towards 2015 High
*RES 4: Idr13578 - Rising daily channel top
*RES 3: Idr13445 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 2: Idr13384 - 2015 High June 9
*RES 1: Idr13372 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Idr13348 @ 2200GMT
*SUP 1: Idr13295 - Low July 3
*SUP 2: Idr13273 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Idr13245 - Low June 23
*SUP 4: Idr13190 - Low June 3
*COMMENTARY:
Once again bears have been unable to capitalise on a close below the 21-DMA and a break of the channel
base with the bounce Monday seeing focus return to the 2015 high. Initial support is now noted at Idr13295
with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure. Layers of support remain in the Idr13186-295
region with a close below the 55-DMA (Idr13186) needed to end bullish hopes and shift immediate focus to
Idr13045-094.
The information contained herein has been obtained from, or is based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable but we make
no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. This is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell.
Copyright © 2015 Market News International, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution or reproduction is prohibited.