MORNING GRAIN COMMENTS

MORNING GRAIN COMMENTS
Matt Zeller | matt.zeller@intlfcstone.com |Thursday, July 02, 2015
CURRENT TREND:
Steady/Higher
REASON: Post-report shine continues, Informa seen cutting yield estimates this morning
EXPORT SALES @ 7:30 AM, INFORMA @ 10:30 AM; CFTC REPORTS MONDAY
MORNING TRIVIA: Within 5% either way, what percentage of American adults know how to drive a stick shift?
MARKET HEADLINES
NIGHT SESSION (to 7:00 AM): Grain Volume: 122,381
 Quick Editorial: the post-USDA corn and soybean run has topped out a bit
into the end of this holiday-shortened week, but the bulls are unwilling to give Symbol High
Low
Last
Chg
Vol
too much ground ahead of estimates from well-followed Informa today. Next
CN5
417.25 409.75 414.75
+1.00
599
week still looks to bring further ratings declines and continued wet weather...
CU5
426.00
418.50
422.75
+0.25
18,698
 Egypt’s GASC is looking for wheat today for August 1-10 shipment.
 Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported total 2014/15 (July-June) grain exports at
CZ5
435.50 427.75 432.00
+0.25
25,523
34.6 million tonnes, up from 32.98 MMT a year ago, and including 10.9
13,494
WU5
592.50 577.00 582.25
-6.25
MMT of wheat, 18.9 MMT corn, and 4.5 MMT barley. The Ag Minister said
yesterday that exports could reach as much as 37 MMT in the current season. KWU5 597.00 582.00 588.50
1,867
-4.00
 Kazakhstan’s grain exports fell to 6.444 MMT in 2014/15 (July-June), versus
307
SN5
1046.25 1037.00 1045.25 +1.25
8.68 MMT in ‘13/14 due to a lower quality harvest in 2014.
 Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported June soybean exports at a massive 9.8 mil1,333
SU5
1037.75 1026.25 1034.50 +1.75
lion tonnes, up from 9.34 MMT in May and 6.89 MMT last June. Ethanol
16,607
SX5
1033.50 1022.75 1031.25 +1.75
exports of 91.1 million liters edged out 91.0 mln last month, but fell behind
167.3 mln last June. Corn exports of 137k tonnes were up from 39k in May
5,160
SMZ5
348.50 343.90 345.60
-0.10
and 88k last year, while meal (1.62 million tonnnes) and oil (133k tonnes)
BOZ5
33.69
33.34
33.59
+0.10
6,722
exports were in line with last month’s and last year’s figures.
 INTL FCStone Europe pegged the Union’s 2015 soft wheat harvest at 140.7
38,579
CLQ5
57.31
56.80
57.13
+0.17
MMT, down from a recent 141.6 MMT Strategie Grains forecast, and well
9,637
DXY
96.62
96.31
96.46
-0.05
below last season’s 149.5 MMT crop. Corn output came in at 66.6 MMT,
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE
below 67.5 MMT from Strategie Grains and 75.7 MMT last season.
Today’s chart shows major USDA planted acreage report
 CBOT July Deliveries: corn 1024 contracts, with next trade date 6/17/15;
Chicago wheat 105 contracts & 5/21; KC wheat 46 & 6/30; soyoil 832 & 7/1. figures for corn and soybeans since 2007; the government’s
 ‘14/15 Export Sales Estimates (000 tonnes): Estimate Range / Last Week corn plantings figure of 88.9 million acres was down in
Corn: 300-600 / 496.8
Beans: 100-200 / 118.8
Meal: 50-150 / 106.3 June for the second straight year—it fell another million
acres by the final estimate last season. Soybeans at 85.1 mln
Oil: 0-15 / 9.5
 ‘15/16 Export Sales Estimates (000 tonnes): Estimate Range / Last Week ac were up about half a million from March, the third
Corn: 150-350 / 297.5
Beans: 150-350 / 202.5
Meal: 100-150 / 210.5 straight Mar-June increase from the USDA; however final
acreage has declined from the June estimate in each of the
Wheat: 250-500 / 434.3
last two seasons, to an average loss of just over one million.
WEATHER UPDATE
 Missouri was the epicenter of heavy rains over the past 24 hours, with 1”+ for
USDA Corn Acreage (mln acres)
98
most of the state and up to 5-6” in the center/southwest. Rains are falling in
March Intentions
the Dakotas and NE this morning, while southern crop areas will see the best
June Acreage
activity into the weekend; the late weekend into early week period (as well as 96
Final
the 6-10 day) will bring back widespread corn belt precipitation. Some 11-15 94
day maps are drier south today, still wet in the north. Temperatures remain on
the low side of average if anything, right up through mid-July.
92
NWS 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK: TEMPS & PRECIP
90
88
86
84
2007
90
85
CFTC MANAGED MONEY & RECORD (Since June 2006) POSITIONS:
Corn
Beans
Meal
Oil
Wheat
KC Wht
Daily
5,000
-6,000
0
-4,000
-10,000
0
Est Net
-59,968
46,785
45,178
20,119
-9,484
-2,478
Rec +
409,444
240,937
98,846
83,895
73,662
61,669
Rec -
-158,406
-89,929
-54,855
-63,489
-111,373
-14,385
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
USDA Soybean Acreage (mln acres)
March Intentions
June Acreage
Final
80
75
70
65
60
2007
Page 1 of 2 * Trivia answer on Page 2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
MORNING GRAIN COMMENTS
Matt Zeller
|
Technical Highlights
TRIVIA ANSWER: 71%
CORN COMMENTS
Moving to the December corn contract, CZ5 managed to add a
quarter-cent yesterday with the higher high and low, leaving
highs both yesterday and overnight in the 436 area; next up for
resistance would be highs from late 2014 right at 440.
SOYBEAN COMMENTS
November soybeans fell back to lose 7 3/4 cents yesterday despite the higher high and low after Tuesday’s rally; so those
fresh session highs remain at 1038 today, with resistance next
up at the 1050 level and highs from last November at 1056 3/4.
SUPPORT / RESISTANCE OUTLOOK
SUPPORT / RESISTANCE OUTLOOK
Term
Short
Long
Support
391.50
362.50
Resistance
436.00
436.00
Our Bias
Positive
Neutral
Term
60 Minute
Day Chart
40-Per MA
425.43
381.94
20-Per MA
431.28
387.05
Trend
Higher
Higher
Open Int
Increasing
Volume
Heavy
Volatility
High
RSI Levels
Very Overbought
TREND OUTLOOK
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Term
Short
Long
Support
971.25
895.75
Resistance
1040.00
1040.00
Our Bias
Positive
Neutral
Term
60 Minute
Day Chart
40-Per MA
1018.34
938.36
20-Per MA
1028.48
953.26
Trend
Higher
Higher
Open Int
Increasing
Volume
Heavy
Volatility
High
RSI Levels
Very Overbought
TREND OUTLOOK
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
60 MINUTE DEC CORN - eCBOT, w/ MA’s & RSI
60 MINUTE NOV BEANS - eCBOT, w/ MA’s & RSI
440
1060
430
1040
420
1020
410
1000
400
980
390
960
380
7/2
7/1
7/1
6/30
6/30
6/29
6/29
6/29
6/26
6/26
6/25
6/25
940
6/24
7/2
7/1
7/1
6/30
6/30
6/29
6/29
6/29
6/26
6/26
6/25
6/25
6/24
370
100
75
50
25
0
100
75
50
25
0
WHEAT COMMENTS
60 MINUTE SEPT WHEAT - eCBOT, w/ MA’s & RSI
September wheat wound up with an inside session despite losing 27 1/2 cents yesterday; so those post-report highs stand for
now at 617 1/2 (with further resistance at $6 and the 62% mark
at 594 1/2), with support lows building up in the 575-577 area.
SUPPORT / RESISTANCE OUTLOOK
7/2
7/1
RSI Levels
Overbought
7/1
Volatility
High
6/30
Volume
Heavy
6/30
Open Int
Increasing
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
6/29
Trend
Lower
Higher
6/29
20-Per MA
589.93
532.20
560
500
6/29
40-Per MA
593.78
519.18
580
520
6/26
Term
60 Minute
Day Chart
TREND OUTLOOK
600
540
6/26
Our Bias
Positive
Neutral
6/25
Resistance
617.50
617.50
6/25
Support
536.00
479.25
6/24
Term
Short
Long
620
100
75
50
25
0
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Matt Zeller
matt.zeller@intlfcstone.com
www.intlfcstone.com
1-800-422-3087