Mr. Niklas Granholm, FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency

The New Arctic and Space Technology –
Options
Sweden House, Washington DC,
19 May 2015
niklas.granholm@foi.se
The Swedish Defence
Research Agency – FOI
• ~1000 employees
• A civilian government agency under the
Ministry of Defence.
• Electronics, CBRN-protection, defence
and security systems, defence analysis
The Arctic and Space: Combining FOICompetencies
SAT-initiatives
Technological trends
Context
Geostrategic change
- Development
- Specification
- SAT-concepts
A New Arctic –
more human activity to be expected
• Energy- and mineral extraction
• New transoceanic SLoCs
• Overlapping territorial claims
• Fisheries
• Tourism
• Indigenous populations
• Environmental protection
• Scientific research
• New actors – multilateral, state and nonstate, regional and external
• Institutional developments
• Military strategic role
Two additional trends
• Russian belligerence
• Sharply lower oil prices
5
A new and geopolitically more
important Arctic is emerging.
The new Arctic can not be seen in
isolation from the rest of the world.
The factors of change develop
according to their own pace and inner
logic.
Developments will be hard to predict.
Space and the Arctic – Technological trends
•
Miniaturization – from
micro to nano and pico
•
Standardisation – cheaper
and cheaper
•
Fractionated satellites
leads to options for:
•
•
Constellations of satellites
•
Formations of satellites
•
Clusters of satellites
Launch-on-demand – lead
time down from years to
weeks or even days
Swarm of satellites – The QB50 system.
Space systems will become a more common component
in the new Arctic for more state- and non-state actors.
8
Possible functions for Arctic SAT-systems
• Confidence and Security Building Measures (CSBMs)
• Surveillance – who is doing what to whom?
• Improved telecommunications above 70 deg. North.
• Safety at sea (navigation, weather forecasting etc.)
• An ”Arctic 911-number”
• AIS-complementarity
• Environmental protection
9
Three generic SAT systems for the Arctic
• Plug-in:
Light, quick, small and nationally
developed.
• Gap-filler:
Flexible, scalable in a nordic
framework.
• Totality:
Heavy, advanced and international.
10
The Plug-in SAT-system
•
Small and light system built by Swedish industry based on today’s
resources in communications, signals, miniaturization and
standardization.
•
For national use or as part of a distributed system acessible to a usergroup of nations.
•
A component in a nautical navigation system, for emergencies and/or
AIS-transponders.
•
1-3 satellites in LEO with high inclination – pole-to-pole.
•
Life-span of 5-10 years.
•
Modular design with developed components.
11
The Gap-Filler SAT-system
•
Clear need for improved capacity for
safe and fast telecommunications.
•
Built by a consortium of nations –
Nordic industrial cooperation
•
Avoids high costs by miniaturization
and design of systems towards
specific needs. If focus on filling gaps
in existing systems, cost effectiveness
can be achieved.
•
Scalable, can be built in stages.
•
Example: relaying of data from GEOsatellites or safe and encrypted data
transmission for specific needs.
12
6U-satellite, artist’s rendition.
Totality: heavy, advanced and multinational
•
The full range of
telecommunications and
survelliance for the Arctic.
•
Life-span of 10 years provides more
of a permanent solution to Arctic
challenges.
•
Several bigger satellites with a
number of sensors and extensive
ground infrastructure.
•
Swedish niche capabilities would fit
in well.
•
Complexity of integration nationally
and internationally : higher risk
•
Provides space infrastructure for
safe and transparent development
in the Arctic region.
13
Canadian PCWconcept.
Choices
• Contribution to Confidence and Security
Building measures (CSBMs) important in a
broader Arctic context.
• Plug-in and Gap-filler concepts offer the best
quick-win effects.
• Important not to decide too early on concepts
but follow international trends in cooperation.
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Summary
• SAT-systems will become a more common
component for more actors in and outside of the
Arctic region.
• Geostrategic change in the Arctic region driven
by climate change opens the Arctic to more
human acitivity and follow-on effects.
• Development of space technology offers
affordable opportunities to meet Arctic follow-on
effects.
15
Thank you!
www.foi.se/arctic
Photo: Jan Durinck