Alpargatas
Transcription
Alpargatas
QUARTERLY EARNINGS REVIEW Alpargatas BBI Equity Research Friday, May 8, 2015 Weak in Brazil, Strong Abroad Alpargatas’ Brazilian operation showed some concerning signs of weak demand in 1Q15, but this was fully offset by its international operation. The company’s sales in Brazil declined 9% YoY (excluding Osklen), affected by a 28.5% drop in sporting goods volumes. However, Alpargatas’ international operation was able to offset that weak result due to higher prices in the local currency and the BRL’s depreciation against the USD. Moreover, Alpargatas was able to report a margin expansion, mostly given a greater share of Havaianas in the product mix, and also due to lower rubber costs. Finally, EPS improved 5% YoY, driven by better operating results, despite more pressure from its net financial results. We have a Market Perform rating for ALPA4 as it is trading at a P/E of13.5 for 2015, which is in-line with the historical valuation. Moreover, in our view, some volatility may persist especially related to its sporting goods sales and the consolidated gross margin (because of volatility related to FX and rubber prices). Alpargatas (ALPA4) Consumer & Retail Market Perform Target Price: R$10.50 Upside: 0% 1Q15’s main highlights: COMPANY REPORT To ensure a like for like comparison, the figures do not include Osklen (unless otherwise mentioned) as we did not have its historical figures until now. Alpargatas’ total net revenues grew just 4% YoY for 1Q15, coming in line with our forecast, with a 9% YoY drop in Brazil. The Brazilian division’s sales were pressured by the continuation of weak sales in the sporting goods division, mostly due to light volumes. In 1Q15, the sporting goods volume in Brazil tumbled 28.5%, as the unit has been facing a challenging macro scenario (high-ticket, discretionary items). Meanwhile, flip-flop sales moved ahead by 3.8% YoY, despite a 3.9% drop in volumes. Argentina performed reasonably well, with revenues growing 28% YoY in Pesos and 39% in BRL. In addition, US, Europe and exports also did well and revenues grew 18% in BRL, boosted by the currency depreciation. Ricardo Boiati- 55 11 2178 5326 rboiati@bradescobbi.com.br Pedro Bueno-55 11 2178 4272 pedro.bueno@bradescobbi.com.br Luiz Felipe Guanais-55 11 2178 4190 luiz.guanais@bradescobbi.com.br Brisk sales in discount channels indicate more difficultly in selling at full price. On the one hand, Havaianas’ franchise stores reported a 6.1% contraction in sales, while on the other hand, the outlet Meggashop posted a 7.7% uptick boosted by increased fire sales and higher Mizuno volumes. This is also in line with Osklen’s use of more fire sales, which suggests that it is especially hard to sell higher ticket products at full price. (…continued in following page…) 1 Bradesco Corretora – Av. Paulista, 1.450 – 7th floor – Sao Paulo – Brazil – 55 11 3556-3001 Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários (Bradesco Corretora) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Bradesco Corretoraand its affiliates may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report. COMPANY REPORT BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 8, 2015 Algargatas’ gross margin rose by 188bps in 1Q15, coming in at 44.1% for 1Q15. This was mostly due to: (i) lower rubber costs (-5% YoY in BRL) in 1Q15; (ii) a larger share of sandals, as sporting goods volumes dropped significantly; and (iii) a greater manufacturing productivity in Argentina. On the other hand, these gains were partially offset by a less favorable FX rate that impacted imported raw materials. SG&A expenses improved 46bps YoY to 28.1% of sales. This was mainly due to the strict control of expenses. Accordingly, the company’s EBITDA margin increased by 177bps to 17.7%, boosting EBITDA to R$160mn (+15% YoY and 3% below our estimate). Adjusted EPS increased 5% YoY to R$0.23. Despite the improved operating results, its greater net financial result pressured the bottom line. Osklen reported net revenues of R$43mn (+4% YoY), mostly driven by higher volumes (+6%), while average prices fell -2%. Its company-owned stores posted lower sales of 11.6% YoY due to fire sales, although franchise and multi-brand stores performed well. Meanwhile, the company’s gross margin decreased 233bps, to 74.1%, after being pressured by higher discounts in 1Q15. Accordingly, its EBITDA margin dropped 127bps to 1.4%, despite improved SG&A expenses. Conference Call Details: Portuguese May 11, 5:00 p.m. (Brazil) / 4:00 a.m. (US, EST) Dial-in number: +55 (11) 3193-1001 / +55 (11) 2820-4001 Conference ID: Alpargatas English: May 12, 12:00 p.m. (Brazil) / 11:00 a.m. (US EST) Dial-in number: +1 (786) 924-6977 (USA) / +55 (11) 3193-1001 Conference ID: Alpargatas Company release: http://ri.alpargatas.com.br/ingles/arquivos/informacoes_financeiras/Resultados_Trimestrais/2015/PRESS_RELEASE_1T15.pdf Figure 1: 1Q15 Earnings Review for Alpargatas (Ex-Osklen) P&L - R$mn Net Revenues Gross Margin Cash SG&A + Others as % of Net Rev. Reported EBITDA Reported EBITDA Margin Adjusted Net income 1 Adjusted EPS (R$) 1Q15A 1Q15E 4Q14A 1Q14A A/E Var. % QoQ Var. % YoY 906 915 983 873 -1% -8% 4% 44.1% 42.2% 38.7% 42.2% 184bps 543bps 188bps -26.4% -24.2% -25.5% -26.3% -216bps -92bps -11bps 160 165 130 139 -3% 24% 15% 17.7% 18.0% 13.2% 15.9% -32bps 451bps 177bps 106 0.23 108 0.24 84 0.18 101 0.22 -2% -2% 26% 26% 5% 6% 1 Adjusted for equity income and the sale of a plant in 1Q14. Source: Company and Bradesco BBI Figure 2: 1Q15 Earnings Review for Osklen P&L - R$mn 1Q15A 1Q14A Var. % YoY 0.298 0.281 Net Revenues 43 41 4% Gross Profit 32 32 1% 74.1% 76.5% -233bps (31) (30) 3% 0.6 1.4% 1.1 2.7% -45% -127bps Volume (`000 units) Gross Margin Cash SG&A EBITDA EBITDA Margin 6% Source: Company and Bradesco BBI 2 COMPANY REPORT BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 8, 2015 Analyst Certification Each analyst responsible for the preparation and content of this report hereby certifies, pursuant to SEC Regulation AC and applicable law s and regulations of other jurisdictions, that: (i) the view s expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal view s and opinions about the subject company(ies) and its or their securities; (ii) no part of his or her compensation w as, is, or w ill be paid directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or view s expressed by that analyst in this report; and pursuant to Brazilian securities exchange commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários – CVM) Instruction 483/10: (i) the recommendations indicated in this report solely and exclusively reflect his or her personal opinions, and w ere prepared independently and autonomously, including in relation to Bradesco Corretora and its affiliates ; (ii) his or her compensation is based on the profitability of Bradesco Corretora and its affiliates, w hich includes investment banking revenues; Company disclosures pursuant to Brazilian securities exchange commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários – CVM) Instruction 483/10: (i) Banco Bradesco S.A. beneficially ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by Cielo S.A.. Bradseg Participações Ltda., a subsidiary of Banco Bradesco, indirectly ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by Fleury S.A.. BRADESPAR S.A., w hose controlling group is comprised of the same shareholders that control Banco Bradesco S.A., indirectly ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by VALE S.A. (ii) Ágora, Bradesco Corretora, Bradesco BBI and Bradesco Group companies have relevant financial and commercial interests in relation to the subject company(ies) or the subject security(ies). (iii) Bradesco BBI S.A. is acting as an underw riter in a public offering of equity securities of Telefônica Brasil S.A.. Ágora and Bradesco Corretora are participating in a public offering of equity securities of Telefônica Brasil S.A.. (iv) Bradesco BBI have managed or co-managed a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for the follow ing companies w ithin the past 12 months: Abril Educação, Braskem, Concessionária do Aeroporto Internacional de Guarulhos, Concessionária do Sistema Anhanguera-Bandeirantes, Embratel, OAS, Ouro Fino Saúde Animal Participações S.A and Vale. (v) Ágora and/or Bradesco Corretora participated in the public offering of equity and/or debentures for the follow ing companies w ithin the past 12 months: Concessionária do Aeroporto Internacional de Guarulhos, Concessionária do Sistema Anhanguera-Bandeirantes, Ouro Fino and Vale. (vi) Bradesco Corretora receives compensation for making a market in the equity securities of Alpargatas (ALPA4), General Shopping (GSHP3) and Helbor (HBOR3). Bradesco receives compensation for making a market in the in the fixed income securities of BNDESPAR and USIMINAS, and shares of Fundo Imobiliário BB Progressivo II. Important Disclosures Company-specific regulatory disclosures 1 Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates beneficially ow n one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company(ies). This position reflects information available as of the business day prior to the date of this report; 2 Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public or Rule 144A offering of the subject company’s(ies’) securities in the tw elve months preceding the date of this report; X 3 Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company(ies) in the tw elve months preceding the date of publication of the research report and/or expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company(ies) in the three months follow ing the date of this report; X 4 Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates w ere making a market in the subject company’s(ies’) equity securities at the date of this report; 5 Any other actual material conflict of interest of Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates know n at the date of this report. X Bradesco Corretora research ratings distribution Rating Definition Coverage¹ BR² Outperform Expected to outperform the Ibovespa by more than 10%. 46% 100% Market Perform Expected to perform in the range of 10% above or below the Ibovespa. 48% 100% Underperform Expected to underperform the Ibovespa more than 10%. 1% 100% Under Review This indicates that both the target price and the rating are currently being revised. 4% 100% Restricted The analyst cannot express his/her view s on the company. 1% 100% (1) (2) Percentage of companies under coverage globally w ithin this rating category. As of 8-May-15 Bradesco Corretora had144companies under coverage globally. Percentage of companies w ithin this rating category for w hich [investment banking] services w ere provided w ithin the past 12 months. 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You may obtain this information by contacting your representative or by sending an email to bradescocorretora@infobradesco.com.br. 3 COMPANY REPORT BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 8, 2015 Additional Disclosures With the exception of investment company funds, Bradesco Corretora’s internal policy prohibits ow nership of securities in their respective area of coverage to analysts as w ell as to the associates reporting to the analysts. Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Bradesco Corretora and its affiliates, w hich includes investment banking revenues. Bradesco Corretora’ policy prohibits its analysts and associates reporting to the analysts from serving as an officer or director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analysts’ area of coverage. The follow ing disclosures are required under or based on the law s of the jurisdiction indicated, except to the extent already made above w ith respect to United States law s and regulations. 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Any additional information may be obtained by contacting your representative or by sending an email to bradescocorretora@infobradesco.com.br No portion of this docum ent m ay be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form , or by any m eans, or (ii) redistributed w ithout prior consent from Bradesco Corretora. 4 Bradesco Corretora Research Team Econom ics & Research Director Dalton Gardim am 55 112178 4275 Denis Blum dalto n@bradesco bbi.co m.br Tarik Migliorini Bernardo Keiserman (Chief Eco no mist) Banking Bruno Chem m er, CFA Financial Services Rafael Frade, CFA Gabriel Gusan, CFA Healthcare Rafael Frade, CFA Gabriel Gusan, CFA 55 112178 4903 bruno .chemmer@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 4056 rafaelf@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 5329 gabriel.gusan@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 4056 rafaelf@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 5329 gabriel.gusan@bradesco bbi.co m.br Steel, Mining, Pulp & Paper Alan Glezer, CFA 55 112178 5466 Arthur Suelotto, CFA 55 112178 6104 55 112178 4224 denis@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 4230 tarik.miglio rini@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 5372 bernardo .keiserman@bradesco bbi.co m.br (Senio r Eco no mist) Telecom , Media and Technology Luis Azevedo 55 112178 5321 Tales Freire, CFA 55 112178 4527 Caio Yamate 55 112178 4276 Education Luis Azevedo Tales Freire, CFA Caio Yamate Consum er Goods and Retail Ricardo Boiati luis.azevedo @bradesco bbi.co m.br tales@bradesco bbi.co m.br caio .yamate@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 5321 luis.azevedo @bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 4527 tales@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 4276 caio .yamate@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 5326 rbo iati@bradesco bbi.co m.br alanglezer@bradesco bbi.co m.br arthur.suelo tto @bradesco bbi.co m.br Transportation, Logistics and Capital Goods Victor Mizusaki 55 112178 5327 victo r.mizusaki@bradesco bbi.co m.br Luiz Peçanha 55 112178 5324 pecanha@bradesco bbi.co m.br Leandro Fontanesi 55 112178 4274 leandro .fo ntanesi@bradesco bbi.co m.br Real Estate (RE Brokers, Hom ebuilding, M&P and REITs) Luiz Mauricio Garcia 55 112178 4223 lmgarcia@bradesco bbi.co m.br André Mazini 55 112178 5109 andre.mazini@bradesco bbi.co m.br Oil & Gas, Petrochem icals and Sugar & Ethanol Auro Rozenbaum 55 112178 5315 auro @bradesco bbi.co m.br Electric Utilities, Water & Sew age Paulo Ferreira 55 112178 5323 paulo .ferreira@bradesco bbi.co m.br Food, Beverages, Tobacco & Agribusiness Gabriel Lim a 55 112178 5313 gabriel.lima@bradesco bbi.co m.br Fixed Incom e Altair Pereira Caio Lombardi 55 112178 4279 altair@bradesco bbi.co m.br 55 112178 4225 lo mbardi@bradesco bbi.co m.br Each analyst w hose nam e is in bold print is the principal analyst responsible for the content of reports on the respective sector, as w ell as fulfillm ent of the provisions of Art. 16 of CVM Instruction 483/10. Bradesco Corretora CTVM S.A. | São Paulo Sales - 55 11 3556 3001 Juvenal Neves Tiago Valent Gabriel Takemoto Renata Grosche Sales - Fixed Incom e - 55 11 2178 6959 Fernanda Weber Bratz Lucila Sakakura Sales - Local Fixed Incom e - 55 11 3556 3005 Rogério Queiroz Dauro Zaltman Denise Chicuta Patricia Cruz Bilezikjian, CFA Diogo Sangali Mileski Traders Agnaldo Ishikava Douglas Vieira Corazza Eduardo Tosin Bueno Joao Batista Tamassia Santos Junior Marcelo Matias Boneri Paulo Silva do Carmo Pedro Fonseca de Souza Sandoval Marcos Iorio Sales Trading - 55 11 3556 3001 juvenal@bradesco bbi.co m.br tiago valent@bradesco bbi.co m.br gabriel.kenzo @bradesco bbi.co m.br renata.gro sche@bradesco bbi.co m.br fernanda@bradesco bbi.co m.br lucila@bradesco bbi.co m.br Traders Cássio Garcia Fábio Brisola Ingrid Amorim Marcio Aguiar Mauricio Sanchez Pedro Takahashi Ricardo Copia Silene Zinhani cássio @bradesco bbi.co m.br fabio @bradesco bbi.co m.br ingrid@bradesco bbi.co m.br marcio @bradesco bbi.co m.br mauricio @bradesco bbi.co m.br pedro ivo @bradesco bbi.co m.br ricardo .co pia@bradesco bbi.co m.br silene@bradesco bbi.co m.br ro gerio @bradesco bbi.co m.br dauro @bradesco bbi.co m.br denise.chicuta@bradesco bbi.co m.br patricia.bile@bradesco bbi.co m.br Stock Loans Desk - 55 11 3556 3001 Wilson Pereira Evandro Santos wilso n@bradesco bbi.co m.br BM&F Trading Desk - 55 11 3556 3350 José Lázaro Ferreira - Head Lilian Osti - Commercial Manager lazaro @bradesco bbi.co m.br evandro .santo s@bradesco bbi.co m.br dio go mileski@bradesco bbi.co m.br agnaldo @bradesco bbi.co m.br lilian.o sti@bradesco bbi.co m.br do uglas.co razza@bradesco bbi.co m.br eduardo .bueno @bradesco bbi.co m.br jo ão .batista@bradesco bbi.co m.br bo neri@bradesco bbi.co m.br paulo .carmo @bradesco bbi.co m.br pedro .fo nseca@bradesco bbi.co m.br sando val@bradesco bbi.co m.br Institutional Sales Team - USA, UK & HK Bradesco Securities, Inc. | New York (FINRA/SIPC Member) Bradesco Securities Hong Kong Ltd. Sales – 01 212 888 9141 Juan Briano DeWayne Shaw Paulo Pereira Vielcka Mansukhani Sales – (852) 2251 8716 jbriano @bradesco securities.co m dewayne@bradesco securities.co m Luiz Fernando Silva Jae Choi luiz@bradesco securities.co m jaecho i@bradesco securities.co m paulo .pereira@bradesco securities.co m Vielcka@bradesco securities.co m Sales - Fixed Incom e – (852) 2251 8718 João Paulo Loyola Amex Lee Sales - Fixed Incom e – 01 212 888 9143 Brent Matson brent@bradesco securities.co m Leonardo Jafet ljafet@bradesco securities.co m Sales Trading – 01 212 888 9141 Christopher Barresi Sean Harte cbarresi@bradesco securities.co m sean@bradesco securities.co m jplo yo la@bradesco securities.co m amexlee@bradesco securities.co m Bradesco Securities UK, Ltd Sales – 44 207 382 0070 Marcelo Cabral Robert Hulme Tim Creasey mcabral@bradesco securities.co m rhulme@bradesco securities.co m tcreasey@bradesco securities.co m Syndicate Desk – 01 646 432 6642 Shin Fukui David Pereira shin@bradesco securities.co m david@bradesco securities.co m Sales - Fixed Incom e – 44 207 382 0074 Guilherme Zraick Sebastian Almquist Tangen Av. Paulista, 1450 7º andar CEP: 01310-917 São Paulo – SP gzraick@bradesco securities.co m salmquist-tangen@bradesco securities.co m