Fatal Accident Rates

Business Aviation Safety & Losses: Annual Review2014 (SB495)
2014 – Yet another disappointing year
The year 2014 was another disappointing one, with business jet
aircraft experiencing the worst fatal accident rate in recent years.
The accident rate for business turboprops did improve last year in
comparison to 2013 and 2012, but it was similar or worse than the
rates for 2009 through 2011.
The long-term trend in the accident rates for business turboprops
is improving, but that for business jets seems to have largely
stalled over the last 10 years 1.
Fatal Accident Rates
In 2014, the fatal accident rate for business jets was about one per 1,430 aircraft2, a marked
deterioration on the one per 2,500 aircraft in 2013 and one per 3,300 aircraft in 2012.
Business turboprops, however, improved with a fatal accident rate in 2014 of about one per
770 aircraft, compared with one per 550 aircraft in 2013 and one per 590 aircraft in 2012.
The 2014 fatal accident rate for business jets compares poorly with the most recent years –
the business jet fatal accident rate for the decade of the 2000s was one per 1,600 aircraft.
However, it was better than the average for the decade of the 1990s, which was one per 900
aircraft.
Meanwhile, the 2014 fatal accident rate for business turboprops, at one per 770 aircraft,
shows a marked improvement over the annual average for the decade of the 2000s, which
was one per 560 aircraft. The average for the 1990s was one per 435 aircraft.
With no improvement in the fatal accident rate for business jets in recent years, business
turboprops have begun to close the gap again. Twenty years ago, on average, the fatal
accident rate for business jets was about two times better than that for business turboprops.
A more rapid improvement in safety for the business jet fleet then meant that the accident
rates for the two classes of aircraft diverged to the point where the business jet fatal accident
rate was some four times better than for the turboprops. However, by the end of last year,
the difference in the rates had narrowed somewhat.
1
“Business Jets and Turboprops”. Our definition includes all those aircraft types generally considered to be targeted at the
private/corporate executive market but excluding “airliner” types, which may be used as executive/VVIP transports (a list of the
types included appears at the end of this report). This analysis is based on the class of aircraft and is not limited to those
aircraft actually in private/corporate use. Many of these “business” aircraft are operated for passenger or cargo air taxi/charter,
aerial work etc.
2
Accident Rates. Currently we do not have good data for the number of flights etc on a global basis for this class of aircraft to
allow us to calculate accident rates in the form of, for instance, “fatal accidents per million flights”. However, we do have good
fleet data and this allows us to use “aircraft years in service” (the average number of aircraft available for operation in the fleet)
and “seat years” as measures of exposure when calculating accident rates. Nevertheless, although these rates do give a good
indication of trends over the longer term, possible changes in utilisation from year to year should be borne in mind when
comparing one year to another.
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Business Aviation Safety & Losses: Annual Review2014 (SB495)
Fatal Accidents per 100 Aircraft in Service - Business Jets and
Turboprops
(Excludes Acts of Violence)
Fatal Accidents per 100 Aircraft
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
1990
1995
Business Jets
2000
Business Turboprops
2005
2010
Expon. (Business Jets)
Expon. (Business Turboprops)
Annual Fatal Accident Rates (Business Aircraft) – Last 10 Years
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Jets
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.06
0.03
0.03
0.02
Turboprops
0.16
0.16
0.19
0.21
0.13
0.08
0.13
Fatal accidents per 100 aircraft at risk
2012
0.03
0.17
2013
0.04
0.18
2014
0.07
0.13
Fatal Accidents
Business jets suffered a total of 12 fatal accidents in 2014, four more than in 2013 and the
worst result since the class entered service in the 1960s. However, there were six previous
years with 11 fatal accidents: 2003, 1996, 1991, 1985, 1980 and 1977. Fatal accidents
increased for the third year running in 2014. Nevertheless, the annual average for the
current decade so far (2010-2014), at seven, is still better than the previous decade at 7.6
and for the 1990s, at 8.2.
Business turboprops also suffered 12 fatal accidents in 2014, however, this was a relatively
better result for this class. There were 17 fatal accidents in 2013 and 16 in 2012. The 2014
result brings the annual average number of fatal accidents for the current decade so far
down to 12.8. The average for the previous decade was 15.4, and that for the 1990s, 16.7.
Annual Fatal Accidents (Business Aircraft) – Last Ten Years
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Jets
6
8
9
9
4
5
Turboprops
13
14
17
19
12
7
Fatal accidents involving passenger and/or crew deaths
Flightglobal.com/SafetyReports
2011
4
12
2012
6
16
2013
8
17
2014
12
12
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Business Aviation Safety & Losses: Annual Review2014 (SB495)
Fatal Accidents - Business Jets and Turboprops
(Excludes Acts of Violence)
25
Fatal Accidents
20
15
10
5
0
1990
1995
Business Jets
Business Turboprops
2000
2005
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Jets)
2010
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Turboprops)
Safety over the longer term is still improving, with the fatal accident rate on a per aircraft
basis falling. However, for much of the last 20 or so years, this improvement has really only
been keeping up with the growth of the fleet; it has not been enough to significantly reduce
the frequency of accidents.
Fatalities
In 2014, 54 passengers and crew died in the 12 fatal accidents suffered by business jets,
giving a simple average of 4.5 fatalities per fatal accident. This is compared with the 23
passengers and crew who died in the eight fatal accidents in 2013, and 25 in the six fatal
accidents in 2012. The 2014 result was the worst since 1996 when 69 people were killed in
11 fatal accidents. The annual average number of fatalities so far in this decade is now 27.2
compared with the previous decade’s average of 23.4, but it is an improvement on that for
the 1990s of 35.9.
A total of 36 passengers and crew died in the 12 fatal accidents suffered by business
turboprops in 2014, giving a simple average of three fatalities per fatal accident. In 2013, 62
passengers and crew died in 17 accidents and in 2012, 51 died in 16 accidents. The annual
average number of passenger and crew deaths for the decade so far is 44.2, that for the
2000s, 49.8, and for the 1990s, 58.1.
Annual Fatalities (Business Aircraft) – Last 10 Years
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Jets
23
22
21
39
11
Turboprops
38
40
44
58
56
Passenger and crew fatalities
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2010
18
24
2011
16
48
2012
25
51
2013
23
62
2014
54
36
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Business Aviation Safety & Losses: Annual Review2014 (SB495)
Passenger/Crew Fatalities - Business Jets and Turboprops
(Excludes Acts of Violence)
90
80
Number of Fatalities
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Business Jets
Business Turboprops
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Jets)
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Business Turboprops)
2014
The worst accidents in 2014 include 1) the Diplomat Aviation (Bahamas) Limited Learjet 35
(N17UF) accident on 14 November, which killed the seven passengers and the two pilots
when it apparently undershot on approach to Freeport, Bahamas; 2) the Lineas Aereas
Comerciales SA de CV Hawker 125 Srs700 (XA-UKR) on 19 April, which undershot on
approach to Saltillo, Mexico, in poor visibility, killing six passengers and two crew; 3) the
Emar Associates Inc Gulfstream IV (N121JM), on 31 May, which overran following an
aborted take-off at Hanscom Field, Bedford, Massachusetts, killing four passengers and
three crew; 4) the AF Andrade Empreend e Particip Ltda Citation XLS (PR-AFA) which
crashed in a built up area of Santos, Brazil, while positioning for a second approach to the
airport, killing the five passengers and two crew; and 5) the Ambulancias Aereas de
Colombia Ltda King Air C90 EPIC (HK-4921) which undershot on approach to Villavicencio,
Colombia.
Fatality Rates
Fatality rates in 2014, on a deaths per 1,000 seat-years basis, generally followed the pattern
shown for fatal accidents, with business jets experiencing a marked deterioration but with
turboprops producing a relatively better result.
The fatality rate for business jets worsened last year, going from about one death per 9,100
seats in 2013 to one per 4,000 seats in 2014. The average fatality rate for the 2000s was
one per 6,250 seats and for the 1990s, one per 2,500 seats.
Turboprops showed considerable improvement with the fatality rate for 2014 standing at
almost one per 2,800 seats, far better than in 2013 when the rate was one per 1,800 seats
and the average for the last decade, which was one per 2,000. The average for the 1990s
was one per 1,450 seats.
It is perhaps worrying that, although the turboprop business aid fatality rate has shown an
improvement over the 1990s, there has been no improvement in the rate in recent years.
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Business Aviation Safety & Losses: Annual Review2014 (SB495)
Passenger/Crew Fatalities per 1,000 Seats - Business Jets & Turboprops
(Excludes Acts of Violence)
1.20
Fatalities per 1000 Seats
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1990
1995
Business Jets
2000
Business Turboprops
2005
2010
Expon. (Business Jets)
Annual Fatality Rates (Business Aircraft) – Last 10 Years
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Jets
0.15
0.14
0.13
0.22
0.06
0.10
Turboprops
0.38
0.40
0.42
0.55
0.52
0.22
Fatalities (passengers and crew) per 1,000 seats
Expon. (Business Turboprops)
2011
0.08
0.43
2012
0.12
0.45
2013
0.11
0.55
2014
0.25
0.36
Notes
The aircraft types covered in this report include: All business jets
 Twin turboprops – Cessna 406, 421 Turbo, 425 and 441, Embraer Xingu, Beechcraft
King Air family, Fairchild Merlin I and II, Mitsubishi MU2, Piper PA-31T and PA-42
Cheyenne, Piaggio P180 Avanti and Turbo Commander family.
 Single turboprop – Pilatus PC12 and TBM700/850.
Paul Hayes, London, 27 March 2015
The information contained in our databases and used in this report has been assembled
from many sources and, while reasonable care has been taken, we are unable to give any
warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or suitability for any purpose and the information
is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to Ascend
Worldwide Limited, its officers, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may
have occurred. In providing this data, no consideration has been made of the interests and
concerns of any third party and Ascend denies any responsibility howsoever arising to any
third party in the use of this data.
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Business Aviation Safety & Losses: Annual Review2014 (SB495)
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