Burden of disease from rising coal emissions in Asia

Burden of disease from rising coal
emissions in Asia
International Symposium on Climate Change and Coal
May 29, 2015
Shannon Koplitz1, Daniel Jacob1, Lauri Myllyvirta2, Melissa Sulprizio1
1Harvard
University
2Greenpeace International
Coal emissions are harmful to human health
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
SO2
NOx
Ozone (O3)
Image sources: cliparts.co; www.envpl.ipb.ac.rs; Jupiterimages
Corporation; www.intechopen.com/source/html/42164/media/
image4.png
Respiratory and
cardiovascular disease
SO2 and NOx from power plants oxidize in the atmosphere to form particulate
matter (PM). NOx can also increase ozone concentrations. Both PM and
ozone lead to premature mortality in people.
Coal emissions declining in the U.S. due to public health concern
Difference in SO2 emissions (2010 – 2005)
Klimont et al., 2013
Coal emissions in many Asian countries are currently following the same
upwards trajectory that has taken decades to reverse in the U.S. and
Europe.
Coal use is expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia
Coal power plant locations by 2030
Operating
Projected
Sources: Platts WEPP Database, Coalswarm.org
There are currently more than 400 coal plants scheduled for development in
Asia outside China and India. Many of these plants are already under
construction.
Project Objectives
1.  Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day
and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia
(excluding emissions from China and India).
2.  Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.
Approach
1.  Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day
(2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem
2.  Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et
al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to
coal-related pollution.
Power plant emissions vary widely by facility
Boiler type
Emission control technologies
Fluidized Bed
Combustion
(FBC)
Selective catalytic
reduction (NOx)
Flue gas desulferization (SO2)
Stoker
Type of coal
Images: Ciris Energy; AECOM Process Technologies; dieselnet.com; energy-models.com/boilers
Plant specific factors such as the grade of coal being combusted or the
emission control technologies in place affect the magnitude and type of
emissions coming from each individual coal fired power plant.
We develop a detailed inventory of the currently operating fleet
S. Korea
Myanmar
Coal SO2 Emissions
(Present Day ~2011)
Japan
7
Vietnam
6
Taiwan
Thailand
Tg yr-1
Philippines
5
4
3
2
Malaysia
1
0
Indonesia
China
U.S.
Countries in
China India
India
U.S.
this work
Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013
Emissions of SO2 and NOx from coal plants are currently highest in
Indonesia, followed by Thailand and Japan.
Coal emissions likely to surpass U.S. levels by 2030
S. Korea
Coal SO2 Emissions
Myanmar
Japan
7
Vietnam
6
Taiwan
Thailand
Tg yr-1
Philippines
Increase
by 2030
5
4
3
2
Malaysia
0
Indonesia
2011
1
China
U.S.
Countries in
China India
India
U.S.
this work
Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013
If all projected plants become operational, Asian coal emissions of SO2 and
NOx could triple by 2030. Indonesia and Vietnam together account for 67%
of this projected increase, as well as an additional 35 million people by 2030.
GEOS-Chem simulates the concentrations of pollutants
Emission inventories
Pollutant concentrations
40oN
10.00
o
30 N
5.00
2.00
20oN
1.00
0.50
10oN
Assimilated meteorology
0.20
0.10
0o
10oS
Global 3-D CTM
100oE
120oE
140oE
40oN
35000
o
30 N
30000
20 N used by many
GEOS-Chem is a global 3-D chemical transport model
research groups around the world to advance our understanding
of
10 N
atmospheric composition and to answer policy relevant questions pertaining
0
to air quality and climate change.
o
o
o
10oS
100oE
120oE
140oE
25000
20000
15000
10000
50000
0
Project Objectives
1.  Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day
and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia
(excluding emissions from China and India).
2.  Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.
Approach
1.  Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day
(2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem
2.  Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et
al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to
coal-related pollution.
Coal pollution correlates with populated areas
ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal
ΔOzone from 2030 Coal
40oN
40oN
30oN
Hanoi
10.00
30oN
5.00
2.00
20oN
1.00
o
20 N
40oN
10.00
30oN
2.00
o
20 N
1.00
0.50
10 N
0.50
10oN
0.20
10 N
0o
0.100o
0o
o
5.00
o
0.20
0.10
ppb
µg m-3
10oS
o
100 E
Jakarta
40oN
30oN
20oN
10oN
o
120 E
o
140 E
10oS
o
10
o S
100 E
o oE
120
100
E
o oE
140
120
E
140oE
Koplitz et al., in prep
40oN
The largest annual average enhancements in PM from coal occur near
350000
populated areas, particularly Hanoi350000
and
Jakarta.
Ozone
enhancements
are
30oN
300000
300000
highest over Sumatra in Indonesia, as well as much of Thailand and
250000
250000
Vietnam.
200000
20oN
200000
150000
150000
100000
10oN
100000
0.50
10oN
10oN
25000
0.20
0.10
0o
0
0o
Exposure
depends
on both
pollution levels
and population
density
10 S
10 S
100 E
120 E
140 E
100 E
120 E
140 E
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
30oN
2010 Population Map
ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal
25oN
10.00
350000
350000
40oN
300000
300000
250000
o250000
20oN
10.00
350000
15oN
o
300000 30 N
250000
10 N
200000
2.00
5.00
N
20 150000
2.00
200000 20oN
150000
5N
0.50
100000
0.20
1.00
o
100000
100000
10o50000
N
50000
0
0
population0
E 120o115
E oE 125o120
E oE 130o125
E oE
50000
130oE
0.50
10oN
140oE
0.10
0o
90oE
120oE
µg m-3
95oE
100oE
105oE
110oE
115oE
120oE
125oE
10 S
100oE
o
30 N
120oE
10oS
140oE
Total Exposure in 2030 (ΔPM2.5 x Population)
25oN
40 N
10.0020oN
o
Total exposure is highest in 5.00
2.00
Indonesia
and Vietnam, followed
N
20
1.00
by China due to high population
0.50
10 N
levels in southern China near 0.20
0.10
Vietnamese
emissions.
0
o
15 N
o
10oN
o
100oE
120oE
140oE
100000
100000
350000
30 No
30 N
5N
0o
0o0o
5 oS
o
1010
SoS
90oE
75000
300000
75000
250000
20oNo
20 N
10oNo
10 N
o
o
10oS
125000
40oNo
40 N
o
30 N
200000
50000
50000
150000
25000
100000
25000
50000
0
0
0
95oE
o
100
100EoE
100oE
105oE
o
120
120EoE
110oE
115oE
o
o
140
140E
E
120oE
125oE
0o
130oE
o
o
10oN
0.20
5 oS
100oE
20oN
0.10
0
o
10oS
0o
30oN
1.00
o
o
150000
40oN
5.00
30 N
200000
40oN
130oE
1
Project Objectives
1.  Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day
and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia
(excluding emissions from China and India).
2.  Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution.
Approach
1.  Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day
(2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem
2.  Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et
al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to
coal-related pollution.
We estimate 16,000 deaths annually from current coal
Excess Deaths Per Year
2011:
14,860 PM
1,530 ozone
16,390 total
2030 increase:
24,160 PM
2,390 ozone
26,550 total
= 42,940
excess deaths
per year
Including a 10% population
increase by 2030 in both
Indonesia and Vietnam, we
estimate 43,000 deaths
annually by 2030 if all
projected plants become
operational.
Assessment of national contributions to coal pollution is ongoing
Annual Mortality from Vietnam Coal
Contribution of Vietnam to 2030 ΔPM2.5 30oN
30oN
10.00
25oN
25oN
5.00
o
20 N
2.00
1.00
15oN
20oN
15oN
2011:
3,827
12
2030 increase:
14,169
75
10
50
0.50
o
10 N
0.20
5 oN
0.10
µg m-3
o
0 o
90 E
o
100 E
o
110 E
o
120 E
o
130 E
10oN
5 oN
0o o
90 E
100oE
= 17,996
excess
deaths
110
E year
120 E
per
o
o
30oN
25oN
20oN
15oN
10oN
350000
We have assessed country level contributions
for South Korea, Vietnam,
300000
and Taiwan. Results for Japan, Indonesia,
Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar
250000
and the Philippines will be completed
over the next few months.
200000
150000
100000
25
0
130oE
New projections for Japanese plants could change results
Bloomberg Business, April 09 2015
17 in our analysis Including emissions from recently announced coal plants could change
estimates of health effects from Japanese coal emissions.
Summary
•  Coal fired power plant emissions of SO2 and NOx form
particulate matter and ozone which are detrimental to human
health.
•  Coal emissions in Southeast Asia are projected to triple by 2030.
•  Without abatement, these projected emissions could lead to
more than 40,000 excess deaths every year.
Please email skoplitz@fas.harvard.edu for more information about this
work. Thank you for listening!