Byg dit sving m/Brian Akstrup og Andreas Kali

15-12-2011
Anvendelse af biomasse i scenarier for
100% vedvarende energi
Osramhuset, København
8. december, 2011
Lektor Brian Vad Mathiesen
Institut for Planlægning, Aalborg Universitet
people.plan.aau.dk/~bvm/
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Fire årtier med et stabilt energiforbrug
World Primary Energy Consumption
400
RES
1000 PJ
300
Danish Primary Energy Supply
PJ
Nuclear
200
Ngas
Oil
100
0
1900
1000
Coal
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
800
600
400
200
0
1972
Oil
1980
Coal
1988
Natural Gas
1996
2004
2007
Renewable Energy
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
1
15-12-2011
40 års aktiv energiplanlægning
• Mere end 40 års aktiv politik på
energiområdet, præget af konsensus
med forskelige fokusområder
• Den aktive energipolitik blev sat på
stand-by i 2001
• Nyt mål i 2006: Mål om 100%
vedvarende energi i Danmark
• Alternative energiplaner og offentlig
debat i mere end 40 år
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Vi ved allerede meget
Fælles udfordringer:
• Mere vind i el‐
systemet
• Flere el‐ og varmebesparelser i husholdninger og industri
• Mere el i transporten
• Større effektivitet i konverteringen
• Større system integration
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
2
15-12-2011
Et muligt scenario ud af mange mulige:
• IDAs Klimaplan 2050 fra 2009
– Består af
• Hovedrapport
(også på engelsk)
• Teknisk baggrundsreport
(også på engelsk)
• 9 andre faglige notater
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Teknisk sammenligning i IDA
Primær energiforsyning i IDA 2015, IDA 2030 og IDA 2050, PJ
1.000
900
800
700
Eksport
600
VE‐el
Solvarme
500
Biomasse
400
Naturgas
300
Olie
200
Kul
100
0
2015
2030
Reference
2050
2015
2030
2050
IDA
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
3
15-12-2011
The aim of the 100% renewable
energy scenarios in CEESA • Create a variety of 100% renewable energy system scenarios for Denmark. • Analyse and integrate the transport sector into such systems.
• Analyse the effects of using biomass resources in 100% renewable energy systems considering the limitations in the biomass resources.
• Use energy system analysis to integrate flexibility and smart energy systems solutions into the electricity, heating and transport sectors as well as into the fuel supply to gas grids which utilise renewable energy.
• Analyse the effects on fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions.
• Analyse the transition towards such a system from today until 2050.
• Identify the socio‐economic consequences of such scenarios, incl. job effects, commercial potentials, health effects and others.
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Biomass potentials
identified in CEESA
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Cereals converted to
energy crops
Extreme forest
management
New cereal cultivars
Cereals converted to
energy crops (1000 ha)
Biomass supply
(PJ)
Energy crops on
surplus area
Current resources
Area converted
• CEESA presents different
biomass potential scenarios.
• 240 PJ is the target for the overall energy
system
• 33‐45 PJ of waste is additional
• 40‐50 PJ for petro‐
chemical products has to be considered ©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
4
15-12-2011
Scenarios for Danish biomass potentials
Biomass potential
600
Wood residues
Wood pellets
Unexploited forest increment
500
Fire wood
Wood chips
Whey
400
Brewer’s grain
PJ/year
Potato pulp
Molasses
300
Beet pulp
Mill residues
Fibre fraction
200
Animal manure
Beet top
Straw
100
Grass Clover
Grass from low lying and wet areas
Energy crops (willow)
Rape seed 0
2010/50
2010/50
2010/50
2010
2030
2050
No import Unl. import No animal prod.
Organic farming
2010
2030
2050
Official recommendations
Danish Self‐sufficiency
2010
2030
2050
Lacto‐ovo vegetarian
Change of diet
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Reduging the biomass consumption in CEESA‐100% renewable energy scenarios
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
5
15-12-2011
Smart energy systems are crucial for reducing biomass consumption in 100% renewable energy systems
Electricity smart grids are only one part of this system. The scenarios rely on a holistic smart energy system including the use of:
• Heat storages and district heating with CHP plants and large heat pumps.
• New electricity demands from large heat pumps and electric vehicles as storage options.
• Electrolysers and liquid fuel for the transport sector enabling storage as liquids.
• The use of gas storage.
Flexible integration of electricity, heat, gas and transport
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Transport modeling in CEESA
• Particular focus due to large challenges:
– >95% reliant on oil
– High increase historically
– Large potential for electric cars and direct electricity but..
– Specific challenges in bringing in electricity in sea, aviation and good transport
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
6
15-12-2011
Transport and 100% renewable
energy systems in 2050
Transit (0%)
Denmark
National
100%
International (50%)
Other
Countries
Transit (100%)
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Primary energy consumption in CEESA 1.000
Kortsigtede konsekvenser af langsigtede mål
900
800
700
PJ/year
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
Reference
2040
2050
CEESA
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Biomass (gasified)
Biomass (solid)
Biogas, manure
Waste incineration
Geo thermal
Solar thermal
PV
Wind power
Wave power
Unused electricity
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
7
15-12-2011
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Three 100% renewable energy
system scenarios in CEESA
• CEESA‐2050 Conservative: The conservative scenario is created using mostly known technologies and technologies which are available today. • CEESA‐2050 Ideal: In the ideal scenario, technologies which are still in the development phase are included on a larger scale. • CEESA‐2050: This scenario is a “realistic and recommendable” scenario based on a balanced assessment of realistic and achievable technology improvements. ©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
8
15-12-2011
Primary energy consumption in CEESA scenarios for 2050
1.000
CEESA‐100% Vedvarenden energi scenarior
Unused electricity
Wave power
900
Wind power
800
PV
700
Solar thermal
Geo thermal
Waste incineration
500
Biogas, manure
400
Straw, wood & energy crops
(Solid for boilers, industry etc.)
Hovedbudskaber
præsenteret for
Klima-, energi-, og
bygningsministeren den
2 november 2011
Wood, energy crops (gasified for
Transport)
300
Wood, energy crops (gasified for
CHP)
200
Natural gas
100
Oil
Coal
0
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Reference CEESA 2050 CEESA 2050 CEESA 2050
2050
Conservative
Ideal
Biomass supply in CEESA scenarios
350
Waste incineration (organic)
300
250
PJ/year
PJ/year
600
Biogas, manure
200
Straw, wood & energy crops
(Solid for boilers, industry etc.)
150
100
Wood, energy crops (gasified for
Transport)
50
Wood, energy crops (gasified for
CHP)
0
CEESA 2050
Conservative
CEESA 2050 Ideal
CEESA 2050
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
9
15-12-2011
Socio‐economic costs
250.000
• Transport pose a very
high portion of the
costs compared to
other energy services
MDKK/year
200.000
150.000
• Direct economic
advantages in
transition
100.000
50.000
• In addition:
• More stable costs
• More jobs
• More export
• Lower health
costs
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2020
2030
Reference
2040
2050
CEESA
Investments, energy
O&M, energy
Extra infrastructure inv., transport
Investments, vehicles
O&M, vehicles
Fuel
CO2‐costs
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
PJ
140
• VE produktion i DK
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980
'85
'90
Vind
Træ
Affald, bionedbrydeligt
'95
'00
'05
Halm
Biogas
Varmepumper m.m.
PJ
'10
120
100
• VE i 2010 • Import ca. 36 PJ
80
60
40
20
0
El og fjernvarme
Kilde: ENS 2011
Vind
Halm
Træ
Endeligt forbrug
Biogas
Affald
Anden VE
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
10
15-12-2011
Scenarios for Danish biomass potentials
700
Sum Incl. Waste
Sum Excl. Waste
600
500
400
For overall purposes
300
For energy only
200
100
0
2010/50
2010/50
2010/50
2010/50
2010/50
Incl. Feed Excl. Feed
2050
High energy
No import
Unl. import
No animal prod.
BAU
2010
Organic farming
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
Official recommendations
Danish Self‐sufficiency
2010
2030
2050
Lacto‐ovo vegetarian
Change of diet
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
CEESA Publications
• CEESA reports (www.ceesa.dk):
–
–
–
–
–
–
Main report: Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis
Part 1: CEESA 100% Renewable Energy Scenarios towards 2050 Part 2: CEESA 100% Renewable Energy Transport Scenarios towards 2050 Part 3: Electric power systems for a transition to 100% Renewable Energy Systems in Denmark before 2050
Part 4: Policies for a Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Systems in Denmark before 2050
Part 5: Environmental Assessment of Renewable Energy Scenarios towards 2050
• And a number of other reports including: –
–
–
•
IDAs Climate Plan 2050, background report Danish Wind Power ‐ Export and Cost
Technical potentials of biomass for energy services from current agriculture and forestry in selected countries in Europe
– Energy Vision for Aalborg Municipality 2050
– EnergyTown Frederikshavn
– Heat Plan Denmark (2008 and 2010)
And 5 PhD projects, 19 book chapters or journal papers, 25 conference proceedings and presentations.
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
11
15-12-2011
Hvor skal vi starte?
• 70‐80 procent af investeringer i teknologi i et IDA 2050 er kendt teknologi…
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Lav varme‐ og elbesparelser
Lav besparelser i industrien og omstil til el
Udvid fjernvarmeforsyningen
Udbyg med land‐ og havvindmøller
Udbyg med store solvarmeanlæg
Udbyg med store varmepumper
Udbyg den kollektive transport
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
Hvor skal vi starte?
• 70‐80 procent af investeringer i teknologi i et IDA 2050 er kendt teknologi…
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Lav varme‐
og elbesparelser
Effekt på kort
sigt: Mindre import
Lav besparelser i industrien og omstil til el
naturgas, olie og kul og økonomiske
besparelser
Udvid fjernvarmeforsyningen
Udbyg med land‐ og havvindmøller
Effekt på lang sigt: mindre pres på
Udbyg med store solvarmeanlæg
biomasseressourcen og mindre import
samt mindre udsving i omkostninger
Udbyg med store varmepumper
Udbyg den kollektive transport
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
12
15-12-2011
Tak for opmærksomheden
Osramhuset, København
8. december, 2011
Lektor Brian Vad Mathiesen
Institut for Planlægning, Aalborg Universitet
people.plan.aau.dk/~bvm/
©Brian Vad Mathiesen
bvm@plan.aau.dk
13