DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT
Transcription
DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT
DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS REPORT Date: July 10, 2011 IMPORTANT INFORMATION & RISK WARNINGS DISCLAIMER : Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by United Securities in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. United Securities has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; United Securities makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be un-audited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment. POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on July 10, 2011) Disclosure of interest statement – 1. Analyst interest of the stock(s): - No 2. Firm interest of the stock(s): - Yes MSM 30 5,975.81 0.39 % •Stop Out. •MSM 30 closed marginally up by 0.39 % (23.33 points) to close at 5975.81 points. The day’s high and low was 5982.47 and 5952.48 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 2916607.00 as compared to the previous day. •The weakness signal has formed and confirmed, and stop loss has triggered on May 18, on a daily close below 6120.00, where descending triangle was confirmed by breaking the neckline at 6120 downward, candle sticks formed long black candle below 6120.00. It is worth mentioning that the earlier strength signals was formed and confirmed on May 02 on a daily close at 6372.32, where candle sticks formed a bullish candle, stochastic oscillator triggered a bullish crossover. •Trader can stop out and sell at the current price or close to resistance area, and wait on the sidelines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 5890.45 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 5800.75. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 6069.85 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 6159.55. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 50 DMA 200 DMA 5,975.81 0.39 2,916,607.00 6,613,054 6196.59 6482.81 Stochastic RSI S1 S2 R1 R2 84.47 43.96 5890.45 5800.75 6069.85 6159.55 AHLI BANK (ABOB 0.267 0.76 %) •Take Profit. & wait. ABOB closed marginally up by 0.76 % (RO 0.002) to close at RO 0.267. The day’s high and low was 0.268 and 0.267 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 213300 as compared to previous day. •The weakness signal formed and confirmed on June 11, on a daily close at 0.288, where candle sticks triggered a bearish candle close to resistance level at 0.295, RSI formed lower high. It is worth mentioning that The strength signals was formed and confirmed on April 28, on a daily close at 0.286, where candle sticks formed a bullish candle after a downward correction from 0.295. The flat relative performance (RS) suggests an equal performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can take profit at the current price or close to resistance area, and wait on the side lines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.261 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.257. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.269 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.273. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.267 0.76 57,000.77 213,300 -68.95 -14.59 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.310 0.220 0.261 0.257 0.269 0.273 BANK MUSCAT (BKMB 0.744 0.14 %) •Buy BKMB closed marginally up by 0.14 % (RO 0.001) to close at RO 0.744. The day’s high and low was 0.746 and 0.741 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 1306009 as compared to previous day. •the strength signals has formed and confirmed on June 01, on a daily close at 0.743, where stochastic oscillator triggered a bullish crossover near oversold area, candle sticks formed bullish candle, It is worth mentioning that The earlier weakness signal was formed and confirmed, and stop loss was triggered on May 18, on a daily close below 0.720. The downward RS suggests an under performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can buy at the current price or close to support levels, stop loss should be triggered on a daily close below 0.680. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.728 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.717. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.750 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.761. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.744 0.14 971,912.21 1,306,009 231.87 136.41 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.880 0.650 0.728 0.717 0.750 0.761 BANK SOHAR (BKSB 0.149 1.36 %) •Wait for profit taking. BKSB closed marginally up by 1.36 % (RO 0.002) to close at RO 0.149. The day’s high and low was 0.150 and 0.149 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 510788 as compared to previous day. BKSB has left the purchasing area. It is worth mentioning that the earlier strength signals was formed and confirmed on May 02, on a daily close at 0.158, where the momentum of the downward move is slow down as compared to the upward wave, RSI is marginally oversold. The upward relative performance (RS) suggests an out performance Vs. MSM 30. • Trader can wait for profit taking, stop loss should be triggered on a daily close below 0.140. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.145 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.143. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.149 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.151. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.149 1.36 76,270.41 510,788 -39.87 -39.21 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.220 0.140 0.145 0.143 0.149 0.151 NATIONAL BANK OF OMAN (NBOB 0.325 0.93 %) •Buy. •NBOB closed marginally up by 0.93 % (RO 0.003) to close at RO 0.325. The day’s high and low was 0.329 and 0.325 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 719000 as compared to previous day. The strength signal has formed and confirmed on July 06; on a daily close at 0.322, where candle sticks formed a bullish candle near the minor support at 0.317, stochastic oscillator triggered a bullish crossover. It is worth mentioning that the earlier weakness signal was formed and confirmed on June 16, on a daily close at 0.321, and the earlier strength signals was formed and confirmed on April 13, on a daily close at 0.307. The upward relative performance (RS) suggests an under performance Vs. MSM 30. • Trader can buy at the current price or close to support levels, stop loss should be triggered on a daily close below 0.310. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.317 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.312. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.327 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.332. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.325 0.93 233,950.88 719,000 197.34 371.19 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.385 0.289 0.317 0.312 0.327 0.332 OMINVEST (OMVS 0.464 -0.22 %) •Sell OMVS closed marginally down by -0.22 % (RO -0.001) to close at RO 0.464. The day’s high and low was 0.470 and 0.462 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 109913 as compared to previous day. •The weakness signal was formed and confirmed on June 16, on a daily close at 0.483, where a double top was formed and confirmed by breaking the minor support at 0.487 downward. It is worth mentioning that the earlier strength signals was formed on May 19, on a daily close at 0.502, where OMVS declined marginally 7.00 % from 0.525 to reach oversold area coinciding with support level at 0.473 and uptrend line, and candle sticks formed a bullish pattern. The up ward relative performance (RS) suggests an out performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can sell at the current price or close to resistance area, and wait on the sidelines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.454 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.447. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.468 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.475. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.464 -0.22 50,996.31 109,913 68.95 -53.01 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.530 0.390 0.454 0.447 0.468 0.475 AL ANWAR CERAMIC TILES (AACT 0.288 0.00 %) •Take profit & Wait a clear signal. AACT unchanged to close at RO 0.288. The day’s high and low was 0.289 and 0.287 points respectively. The total shares exchanged declined to 146500 as compared to previous day. •The earlier weakness signals have formed and confirmed on April 13, on a daily close at 0.292, where candle sticks formed a bearish candle pattern close to resistance level at 0.300. the upward relative performance (RS) suggests an out performance Vs. MSM 30. •Traders can take profit at the current price or close to resistance area, and wait on the sidelines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.284 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.279. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.292 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.297. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.288 0.00 42,256.58 146,500 -6.90 0.12 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.310 0.230 0.284 0.279 0.292 0.297 AL JAZEERA STEEL PRODUCT COMPANY (ATMI 0.297 2.41 %) •Take profit & wait. ATMI closed marginally up by 2.41 % (RO 0.007) to close at RO 0.297. The day’s high and low was 0.299 and 0.294 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 103829 as compared to previous day. The weakness signal has formed and confirmed on June 28, on a daily close at 0.291, where candlesticks formed a bearish candle close to resistance level at 0.296, stochastic oscillator is oversold. It is worth mentioning that The earlier The strength signals was formed and confirmed on March 30, on a daily close at 0.290, where MACD line was broken upward, stochastic oscillator triggered a bullish crossover, and volume is higher as compared to previous days. The flat relative performance (RS) suggests an equal performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can take profit at the current price or close to resistance area, and wait on the sideline to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.293 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.288. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.301 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.306. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.297 2.41 30,807.32 103,829 -62.32 -47.91 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.330 0.250 0.293 0.288 0.301 0.306 NAT. ALUMINIUM PRODUCTS (NAPI 0.401 0.25 %) •Wait for profit taking. NAPI closed marginally up by 0.25 % (RO 0.001) to close at RO 0.401. The day’s high and low was 0.404 and 0.400 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 75331 as compared to previous day. •NAPI rebounded from 0.357 to upward approached to overbought area. It is worth mentioning that The earlier strength signals was formed and confirmed on April 28, on a daily close at 0.421, where major support at 0.400 might work as bulwark, and stochastic oscillator and RSI are oversold. The downward RS suggests an equal performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can wait for profit taking, stop loss should be triggered on a daily close below 0.347. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.394 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.388. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.406 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.412. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.401 0.25 30,185.72 75,331 -12.82 -60.83 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.550 0.357 0.394 0.388 0.406 0.412 OMAN CABLES INDUSTRY (OCAI 0.924 1.09 %) •Stop out & Wait. OCAI. closed marginally up by 1.09 % (RO 0.01) to close at RO 0.924. The day’s high and low was 0.924 and 0.924 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 302 as compared to previous day. •On March 16, the buy signal was formed on a daily close at 1.072 of the bullish candle stick, and stop loss has triggered on a daily close below 1.050, indicators point to strength but no buy signal. the upward relative performance (RS) suggests an out performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can stop out and wait on the sidelines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.911 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.897. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.939 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.953. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.924 1.09 279.05 302 -98.75 -98.43 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 1.340 0.900 0.911 0.897 0.939 0.953 OMAN CEMENT (OCOI 0.564 0.18 %) •Take Profit. OCOI closed marginally up by 0.18 % (RO 0.001) to close at RO 0.564. The day’s high and low was 0.565 and 0.560 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 249500 as compared to previous day. •the weakness signals formed and confirmed on April 18, on a daily close at 0.600 , where a resistance at 0.617 might work as bulwark, RSI is overbought, candle sticks formed a bearish candle pattern. It is worth mentioning that the earlier strength signals formed and confirmed On March 29, on a daily close at 0.573. The upward RS suggests an out performance Vs. MSM 30. • Trader can Take profit at the current price or close to resistance area, and wait on the sidelines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.552 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.543. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.568 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.577. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.564 0.18 140,694.01 249,500 401.39 321.74 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.680 0.480 0.552 0.543 0.568 0.577 AL JAZEIRA SERVICES (AJSS 0.168 0.60 %) •Take profit. AJSS closed marginally up by 0.60 % (RO 0.001) to close at RO 0.168. The day’s high and low was 0.170 and 0.168 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 68627 as compared to previous day. •The weakness signal was formed and confirmed on April 17, on a daily close at 0.203, where candle sticks formed a bearish candle coinciding with a resistance at 0.204, stochastic is overbought. It is worth mentioning that the earlier strength signals was formed and confirmed On March 20, on a daily close at 0.194. The upward RS suggests an out performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can take profit at the current price or close to resistance area, and wait on the sidelines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.164 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.162. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.170 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.172. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.168 0.60 11,538.15 68,627 3.38 -49.15 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.212 0.157 0.164 0.162 0.170 0.172 GALFAR ENGINEERING & CONTRACTING (GECS 0.425 -0.47 %) •Stop out & wait clear signals. GECS closed marginally down by -0.47 % (RO- 0.002) to close at RO 0.425. The day’s high and low was 0.426 and 0.425 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 136500 as compared to previous day. •Stop loss was triggered on a daily close below 0.440 On May 29, It is worth mentioning that the earlier strength signals was formed and confirmed on May 01, on a daily close at 0.474, where candle stick formed a bullish pattern, stochastic oscillator triggered a bullish crossover, and momentum is slow down as compared to the upward move. The flat relative performance (RS) suggests an equal performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can stop out and sell at the current price or close to resistance levels, and wait on the sidelines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.422 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.415. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.434 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.441. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.425 -0.47 58,013.00 136,500 -28.38 -57.12 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.600 0.400 0.422 0.415 0.434 0.441 OMAN QATARI TELECOMMUNICATION SAOG (NWRS 0.697 0.58 %) • Stop loss & wait for clear signals. NWRS closed marginally up by 0.58 % (RO 0.004) to close at RO 0.697. The day’s high and low was 0.698 and 0.693 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 80670 as compared to previous day. •Stop loss was triggered on a daily close below 0.700 On June 05, it is worth mentioning that the eelier strength signals was formed and confirmed on April 28, on a daily close at 0.749, where candle sticks formed bullish pattern, stochastic oscillator triggered bullish crossover at oversold area. The upward (RS) suggests an out performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can stop out and sell at the current price or close to resistance levels, and wait on the sidelines to see how things develop. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.683 level with the next support expected tao appear at a lower level of 0.672. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.703 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.714. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.697 0.58 56,248.86 80,670 -73.84 -83.53 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 0.800 0.630 0.683 0.672 0.703 0.714 •OMAN TELECOMMUNICATION (OTEL 1.105 0.55 %) •Wait for profit taking. OTEL closed marginally up by 0.55 % (RO 0.006) to close at RO 1.105. The day’s high and low was 1.105 and 1.096 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 170106 as compared to previous day. •OTEL rebounded from 1.060 and is overbought. It’s worth mentioning that the earlier strength signals was formed and confirmed on May 02, on a daily close at 1.128, where a resistance at 1.121 was broken, and volume is higher as compared to the previous days. The downward relative performance (RS) suggests an under performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader wait for profit taking, stop loss should be triggered on a daily close below 1.060. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 1.088 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 1.072. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 1.122 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 1.138. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 1.105 0.55 187,953.70 170,106 83.39 4.04 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 1.190 1.030 1.088 1.072 1.122 1.138 RENAISSANCE SERVICES (RNSS 0.868 2.36 %) •Buy. RNSS closed marginally up by 2.36 % (RO 0.02) to close at RO 0.868. The day’s high and low was 0.875 and 0.856 points respectively. The total shares exchanged increased to 493695 as compared to previous day. The strength signals was formed and confirmed on July 07, on a daily close at 0.868, where a higher low has formed (the first low at 0.816 and the second low at 0.835), volume is higher as compared to the previous days, and stochastic oscillator triggered a bullish crossover. it is worth mentioning that the earlier strength signals was formed and confirmed on April 28, on a daily close at 1.049, and stop loss was triggered on a daily close below 0.918 On May 26. The downward relative performance (RS) suggests an under performance Vs. MSM 30. •Trader can buy at the current price pr close to support levels, stop loss should be triggered on a daily close below 0.816. •Resistance and support levels will be more less intact. On its way down, there is an immediate support at the 0.855 level with the next support expected to appear at a lower level of 0.842. On its way up, the immediate resistance is at the 0.881 level while the next resistance is expected to be at a higher level of 0.894. Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 0.868 2.36 428,519.76 493,695 190.53 9.55 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 1.340 0.710 0.855 0.842 0.881 0.894 SUMMARY OF THE DAY Symbol Last %Chg Turnover Volume 7D VOL Chg % 30 D VOL Chg % 52 WK. High 52 WK. Low S1 S2 R1 R2 Recommendation Stop Loss Banks and Investment companies ABOB 0.267 0.76 57,000 213,300 -68.95 -14.59 0.310 0.220 0.261 0.257 0.269 0.273 Take profit & wait BKMB 0.744 0.14 971,912 1,306,009 231.87 136.41 0.880 0.650 0.728 0.717 0.750 0.761 BKSB 0.149 1.36 76,270 510,788 -39.87 -39.21 0.220 0.140 0.145 0.143 0.149 0.151 Wait for Profit Taking 0.140 NBOB 0.325 0.93 233,950 719,000 197.34 371.19 0.385 0.289 0.317 0.312 0.327 0.332 Buy 0.310 OMVS 0.464 -0.22 50,996 109,913 68.95 -53.01 0.530 0.390 0.454 0.447 0.468 0.475 Sell -- Buy -0.680 Industry AACT 0.288 0.00 42,256 146,500 -6.90 0.12 0.286 0.230 0.284 0.279 0.292 0.297 Take profit & wait -- ATMI 0.297 2.41 30,807 103,829 -62.32 -47.91 0.292 0.250 0.293 0.288 0.301 0.306 Take profit & Wait -- NAPI 0.401 0.25 30,185 75,331 -12.82 -60.83 0.399 0.357 0.394 0.388 0.406 0.412 Wait for Profit Taking OCAI 0.924 1.09 279 302 -98.75 -98.43 0.000 0.900 0.911 0.897 0.939 0.953 OCOI 0.564 0.18 140,694 249,500 401.39 321.74 0.556 0.480 0.552 0.543 0.568 0.577 Take profit & Wait -- Stop Out 0.347 -- Services and Insurance AJSS 0.168 0.60 11,538 68,627 3.38 -49.15 0.212 0.157 0.164 0.162 0.170 0.172 Take profit & Wait -- GECS 0.425 -0.47 58,013 136,500 -28.38 -57.12 0.600 0.400 0.422 0.415 0.434 0.441 Stop Out -- NWRS 0.697 0.58 56,248 80,670 -73.84 -83.53 0.800 0.630 0.683 0.672 0.703 0.714 Stop Out -- OTEL 1.105 0.55 187,953 170,106 83.39 4.04 1.190 1.030 1.088 1.072 1.122 1.138 Take profit & Wait 1.060 RNSS 0.868 2.36 428,519 493,695 190.53 9.55 1.340 0.710 0.855 0.842 0.881 0.894 0.816 Buy CONTACT US Contacts United Securities LLC Post Box No 2566 Postal Code 112 Ruwi, Sultanate of Contact Person Email Telephone Sumaiya Al Buloshi info@usoman.com +968 2476 3300 Technical Analyst Karim Abdel Hady TA.Karim@yahoo.com +20 0100857369 Client Services Ibtisam Al Zadjali client_services@usoman.com +968 2476 3338 Asset Management Tara Bassit assetmanagement@usoman.com +968 2476 3352/65/49 Research Joice Mathew research@usoman.com +968 2476 3311 Brokerage Adel Nasr adel@usoman.com +968 2476 3312/13/14 International Brokerage Wael Abdul Rasool wael@usoman.com +968 2476 3306/17