Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA
Transcription
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA
Flights in progress Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA NFF Presentation May 19 2011 Scandinavia is one of the largest per capita air travel markets in the world Topography – – – Sources: Mountains Fjords Unsheltered plains Airbus Global Market Forecast 2009 – 2028 (excl Norway) Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) The World Fact Book Avinor (Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority) Climate – – Makes ground transportation unpredictable during winter Cold and dark winters increases propensity to travel south on leisure travel Demographics – – – High GDP pr capita Wealth relatively evenly distributed throughout the population Extensive international trade Norwegian from a marginal domestic player to Europe’s third largest low cost carrier • Growing on low costs and competitive pricing • Annual passenger growth (CAGR) 2003 – 2010 of 41 % Artikkel fra DN fredag 11. januar 2002 3 Snap-shot of current position Norwegian Europe’s 11th largest airline Low fare carriers Source: RDC Aviation Intra European Capacity Report March 2011 Norwegian Snap-shot of current position World’s 11th largest low cost carrier Source: www.innovata-llc.com 5 Recent developments Slide: 6 Q1 financial development Q1 2011 • • • • • • • • • Turnover: Passengers: Unit cost excl. fuel: Unit cost (CASK): EBITDAR: EBITDA: EBIT: EBT: Net Profit: 2010 full year MNOK 1,895 (+19 %) 3.1 million (+14 %) NOK 0.39 (-1 %) NOK 0.52 (+2 %) MNOK -230 (-23) MNOK -430 (-192) MNOK -495 (-239) MNOK -406 (-275) MNOK -293 (-200) EBT development • • • • • • • • • Turnover: Passengers: Unit cost excl. fuel: Unit cost (CASK): EBITDAR: EBITDA: EBIT: EBT: Net Profit: MNOK 8,598 (+18 %) 13.0 million (+21 %) NOK 0.34 (- 10 %) NOK 0.46 (-5 %) MNOK 1,175 (+1,341) MNOK 397 (+721) MNOK 210 (+572) MNOK 243 (+623) MNOK 189 (+446) EBT evelopment Slide: 7 Seasonality • Of the previous four Q1s, all have been deep red for Norwegian • Of the previous four full operating years, all have produced profits for Norwegian 8 Q1 11: One-offs and commodity fluctuations of MNOK 286 • Fuel price up 34 % since last year – equivalent to MNOK 141 • Expansion costs of approximately MNOK 100 4,500 Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) +28 % 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 0 Q1 10 -100 Q1 11 -144 -192 -100 EBITDA (MNOK) -200 -300 -141 -45 -430 Realized currency loss Q1 2010 Actual -400 -500 -600 Q1 2010 Actual Q1 2011 Underlying Expansion (SE, DK, FI) Fuel price increase 9 April traffic figures Comparables affected by Easter and last year’s closure of European airspace • Continued growth • Improving load factor • Yield increase (first time in 21 months) 2010 (actual) 2010 (adj for ash) 2011 (actual) 11 vs. 10 (actual) 11 vs. 10 (adjusted) VOLUME & CAPACITY ASK 1,199 1,478 1,732 44 % 17 % RPK 848 1,096 1342 58 % 22 % Pax 791,371 1,092,000 1,207,891 53 % 11 % 71 % 74 % 77 % 10 % 3.3 Load REVENUES RASK 0.36 0.40 0.42 16 % 6% Yield 0.51 0.53 0.54 6% 1% 10 Successful growth owing to constant cost focus Lower prices accompanied by lower costs have increased the market share • • Unit cost excluding fuel down 31 % and market share growth of 26 p.p. since 2004 Increasing competitive power allows profitable growth and further scale economies Slide: 11 Lower fares affect yields Yield does not reflect load or ancillary revenue • Competitive (low) fares necessary to grow • Growth necessary to drive down unit cost • Low unit cost a prerequisite to be profitable Yield & Gross RASK development Unit cost & annual EBT result development 12 How does Norwegian compare to others? Slide: 13 Cost focus and fleet renewal enhances competitiveness further: Underlying unit cost down 6 % • • Unit cost 0.52 in Q1 – up 2 % from last year Unit cost excl. fuel & currency 0.37 – down 6 % from last year COST ITEM % OF OPEX PER ASK % CHG PR ASK Aviation fuel 24 % 0.13 10 % Personell 19 % 0.10 -4 % Airport and ATC 14 % 0.07 -4 % Other expenses 11 % 0.05 -9 % Handling 9% 0.05 -9 % Leasing 9% 0.04 -8 % Technical maintenance 7% 0.04 -12 % n/a Other losses/(gains) - net 4% 0.02 Sales/ distribution 2% 0.01 0% 100 % 0.52 2% CASK Slide: 14 Cost & currency breakdown 15 Continuous delivery stream of 737-800s will drive down the unit cost further Norwegian aiming for cost leadership at primary airports Sources: SAS Group Annual report 2010, Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Annual report 2010, Finnair Plc. Annual report 2010, Ryanair Annual Report 2010, easyJet Annual Report 2010, Air Berlin Annual Report 2010 and Norwegian’s estimations • Cost per available seat kilometer is an industry-wide cost level indicator often referred to as “CASK”. Usually represented as operating expenses before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA level) over produced seat kilometers (ASK). •Finnair: Non-airline operating expenses calculated by deducting “Airline Business” expenses as presented in the “Business segment data” from total operating expenses. Average flying distance is an estimate. • SAS Group: Revenues from mail & freight, ground handling services, technical maintenance and terminal & forwarding services as presented in the 2009 annual report are classified as “non-airline” and are deducted from airline operating expenses. Average flying distance from 2009. • SAS Group’s figures are unadjusted for “restructuring costs” and “one-offs” as both items have been a constant fixture in most financial statements the last decade. SAS Group’s various 2010 claims settlements are equivalent to NOK 0.02 per seat per kilometer. • Foreign exchange rates used are equivalent to the daily average rates corresponding to the reporting periods and as stated by the Central Bank of Norway 16 Large potential for further cost reductions Distance a major cost driver Norwegian’s development to date Oppdateres Sources: SAS Group Annual report 2010, Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Annual report 2010, Finnair Plc. Annual report 2010, Ryanair Annual Report 2010, easyJet Annual Report 2010, Air Berlin Annual Report 2010 and Norwegian’s estimations • Cost per available seat kilometer is an industry-wide cost level indicator often referred to as “CASK”. Usually represented as operating expenses before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA level) over produced seat kilometers (ASK). • Finnair: Non-airline operating expenses calculated by deducting “Airline Business” expenses as presented in the “Business segment data” from total operating expenses. Average flying distance is an estimate. • SAS Group: Revenues from mail & freight, ground handling services, technical maintenance and terminal & forwarding services as presented in the 2009 annual report are classified as “non-airline” and are deducted from airline operating expenses. Average flying distance from 2009. • SAS Group’s figures are unadjusted for “restructuring costs” and “one-offs” as both items have been a constant fixture in most financial statements the last decade. SAS Group’s various 2010 claims settlements are equivalent to NOK 0.02 per seat per kilometer. • Foreign exchange rates used are equivalent to the daily average rates corresponding to the reporting periods and as stated by the Central Bank of Norway 17 Salary & Wages per employee • Pilots (best paid group of employees)(% of total employees) – – – – Ryanair: AirBerlin: Norwegian: SAS Group: 28 % (of which 56% employed on contract basis) 15 % 25 % 11 % Sources: SAS Group Annual report 2010, Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Annual report 2010, Finnair Plc. Annual report 2010, Ryanair Annual Report 2010, easyJet Annual Report 2010, Air Berlin Annual Report 2010 and Norwegian’s estimations • Wages & Salary as presented in the notes to the IFRS financial statements of the respective companies • Number of employees is reported man-labor years except Air Berlin where a simple average of year-end 09&10head-counts is used adjusted for 23% part-time employees 18 Salary & Wages per ASK ASK (mill) per airline employee Salary cost per ASK (excl. ground services, cargo etc.) (excl. ground services, cargo etc.) Sources: SAS Group Annual report 2010, Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Annual report 2010, Finnair Plc. Annual report 2010, Ryanair Annual Report 2010, easyJet Annual Report 2010, Air Berlin Annual Report 2010 and Norwegian’s estimations • SAS airline employees is calculated as Group employees minus all technical (SAS Tech), handling (SGH) and cargo (SCG Spirit) employees. Data is not sufficient for 2009 and 2008. • SAS and Finnair don’t provide salary costs for airline employees alone. The ratio airline employees/ total employees is used to calculate airline share of salaries and wages. 19 Norwegian aiming for CASK NOK 0.30 excluding fuel Scale economies • • Uniform fleet of Boeing 737-800s Overheads Crew and aircraft utilization • Rostering and aircraft slings optimized New more efficient aircraft • • • Flying cost of 737-800 lower than 737-300 737-800 has 38 “free” seats Can sustain 20% drop in unit revenue Growth adapted to local markets • Optimized average stage length • • Fixed costs divided by more ASKs Frequency based costs divided by more ASKs Salaries adapted to local cost level Automation • • • Self check-in/ bag drop Automated charter & group bookings Streamlined operative systems & processes 20 NEW aircraft outperform older Boeing 737-800W 2011 vs. 1998 vintage NOK 220 million savings in 2011 Boeing 737-800W vs. MD-80 NOK 1,250 million savings in 2011 16 million pax/ 80% load/ Crude oil USD 120 16 million pax/ 80% load/ Crude oil USD 120 Fuel cost: NOK 2.61 billion Fuel cost: NOK 3.64 billion Smarter cabin layout (3 %) Winglets (3-5 %) EFB (1 %) Tech insert (2-3 %) CFM Evolution (1-2 %) 16 million pax/ 80% load/ Crude oil USD 120 16 million pax/ 80% load/ Crude oil USD 120 Fuel cost: NOK 2.39 billion Fuel cost: NOK 2.39 billion Carbon brakes (0.5 %) Aerodynamics (1 %) Lighter interior (0.5 %) Sources: Boeing • Fuel consumption based on Norwegian’s average distance and 80% load factor 21 LARGE aircraft of the same model outperform smaller Aircraft A 95 pax (-5) Aircraft B 105 pax (+5) Boeing 737-800 Boeing 737-600 Cost of flight (marginal): Seats: Seat cost: Pax cost (74% load): 50,700 120 423 534 Cost of flight (marginal): Seats: Seat cost: Pax cost (59% load): 53,000 186 285 505 16 million pax/ 80% load/ Crude oil USD 120 16 million pax/ 80% load/ Crude oil USD 120 Fuel cost: NOK 3.55 billion Fuel cost: NOK 2.39 billion Sources: Boeing • Marginal cost is Cash Airplane Related Operating Costs for a given stage length.. The concept includes all direct costs such as labor, maintenance, landing fees etc. but excludes all company specific overheads. 22 Fuel efficient aircraft provide relative advantage • Fuel consumption: Down 6 % per seat per KM vs. Q1 last year • Consumption advantage: 25 - 30 % lower per passenger per KM vs. competitor Fuel price Current price expectations (Forward curve) Future Hedges Forward curve July 2008 vs. actual 20 % Options with strike price USD 1,100/ MT Hedged volume 15 % 10 % 5% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 23 Fuel surcharge better than excessive fuel hedging • If Norwegian hedged 60% of the 2011 consumption last week: – – • Would have lost MNOK 170 per USD 10/bbl decrease Oil price down approximately USD 15/bbl Fuel surcharge – – Has a few months time lag before 100 % effect Limited downside compared to hedging Fuel surcharge time lag 24 Expansion & Growth potential Slide: 25 Growth focus on Sweden in Q1 Oslo + 153,000 pax • • Marginal increase in domestic frequencies Growth due to larger aircraft and charter Copenhagen + 71,000 pax Stockholm + 208,000 pax • • New dom. routes to Malmö & Gothenburg Substantial international production growth • • Domestic winter capacity adjustment International production growth Successful opening of Helsinki base and business routes in Sweden Sweden • New domestic routes – – – • Launch of Helsinki base 6 daily rotations to Malmö (opened Dec.) 3 daily rotations to Gothenburg (opened Feb.) Summer route to Visby (Gotland) 3 aircraft based in Helsinki starting March 2011 • 2 domestic destinations – • Int’l launch from Gothenburg – • Malaga, Palma, Pristina, Crete (Chania) Nice, Barcelona and Rome. GOT ARN VBY Oulu and Rovaniemi 11 international destinations – – Oslo and Stockholm already in operation Copenhagen, London (Gatwick), Rome, Split, Alicante, Barcelona, Malaga, Nice and Crete (Chania) MMX Slide: 27 Current planned fleet development • 57 aircraft in the fleet at end of Q1 – – • 737-800: 737-300: 37 (increase of 14 since last year) 20 (decrease of 8 since last year) 5 new 737-800 deliveries in Q2 (May 2, June 3) 28 1970-2010 Air traffic has doubled every 15 years • Annual RPK growth – – – Inter-European routes: Europe – North America: Europe – SE Asia & China: 1.9 x Norwegian’s 2010 RPK 1.3 x Norwegian’s 2010 RPK 1.0 x Norwegian’s 2010 RPK Airbus 2010-2029 annual RPK growth forecast Boeing 2010-2029 annual RPK growth forecast +4.1% +2.8% +7.1% 29 Low cost carriers are growing twice as fast • Boeing anticipates LCC traffic will quadruple by 2029 • Legacy carriers will “only” double during the same period 30 Possible development with purchase rights and long haul • • • • 63 737-800 on firm order 27 737-800 purchase rights 22 existing 737-800 leases 2 787-8 Dreamliners, negotiating for 4 more 31 Long-haul CEO Bjørn Kjos Slide: 32 Boeing’s growth prospects for Europe: Long-haul markets the fastest growing 33 Norwegian is launching Long-Haul operations • Two Dreamliner leases with first delivery in 2012 • Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines – Including “TotalCare” package for up to 18 engines • Initial operations will probably comprise 2 - 8 aircraft Aircraft type • Two leased Dreamliners, first delivery in 2012 • Negotiating for 4 – 6 additional Dreamliner leases Synergies • • • • • • Brand name Feeder network Distribution channels Efficient organization Flight ops & commercial Low cost base Long-haul Short-haul • • • Unit cost down as fixed costs are divided by more ASKs More traffic on existing network More high-yield business traffic Slide: 34 How is the Dreamliner different? • 30 % lower operating costs • 20 % lower fuel consumption • Substantial comfort improvements Destinations • Cost efficient aircraft & cost efficient airline = half the operating cost of incumbents Market leading range • 90% of World’s cities non-stop from Oslo 35 Large potential for inbound traffic from overseas markets • Passenger traffic increases by a factor of appr. 2 compared to GDP growth • Air traffic stimulated by non-stop routes and low fares • China has the World’s larges population and World’s highest GDP growth… Non-stop routes: Pax growth > GDP growth: China: Passenger volume Oslo – Dubai +97% Norway pax growth to GDP growth: 2.20 Non-stop + low fares + 7% GDP growth = ? +97% 36 Slide: 37 The traffic growth will come from Asia Automation & Offshoring CIO Hans-Petter Aanby Slide: 38 Salary & Wages per employee Sources: SAS Group Annual report 2010, Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Annual report 2010, Finnair Plc. Annual report 2010, Ryanair Annual Report 2010, easyJet Annual Report 2010, Air Berlin Annual Report 2010 and Norwegian’s estimations • Wages & Salary as presented in the notes in the IFRS financial statements for the respective companies • Number of employees is reported man-labor years except Air Berlin where a simple average of year-end 09&10head-counts is used adjusted for 23% part-time employees 39 Automatisering 2011 Automatisering: Lean, - mer enn 100 lean aktiviteter. ”mange bekker små til en stor aa” Eksempler på prosjekter: - Bemanningsfri bagdrop - Charterreiser - Gruppereiser - Call Center portal - Avregning / regnskap - Skatter og avgifter - Nettverk med andre selskaper … Offshoring Offshoring: Vi har inngått offshore avtaler med Runway og Tata for administrative tjenester. (India, Baltikum) - Avregning / regnskap - Skatte og avgiftsoppfølging - Fraud - Salg av billetter - Revenue pricing - Bagasjesporing - Oppryddingsjobber i forbindelse med feil i leveranser til kundene og ”askejobber” - Testing av IT systemer - Internett Support Offshoring i dag 25 + 15 Kundesenter Finland 30 Piloter, base HEL 50 Crew, base HEL 60 + 5 Kundesenter Skandinavia Avregning/regnskap Lost luggage tracking and support IT support 20 Gruppereise og vanlig booking Totalt 205 stillinger Administrasjon : 125 Operativ : 80 I tillegg revenue tjenester i India Wi-Fi & Ancillary Revenue CIO Hans-Petter Aanby Slide: 43 Non-ticket revenue a significant contributor • Core ancillary revenue comprises 14 % of Q1 revenues (target 15 %) • Pax related commissions comprises 1 % of revenues (sale on board, hotel, rental car etc.) • Non-pax revenues comprises 1 % of revenues (cargo, share of profit subsidiaries, other) • Wi-Fi with potential to increase ancillary revenue + 5% 100 90 80 Ancillary revenue per passenger (NOK) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Core ancillary revenue/ pax Passenger related commissions Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 42 70 80 84 8 8 Slide: 44 The on board product! Live TV broadcasting news, sports and other programs. High speed broadband in flight, enabling customers to work, search for news or be entertained. Overwhelming Wi-Fi Launch Used by more than half of the passengers on most popular flights • 40 - 50 % of passengers online on the most popular flights – – – – – – – – • Oslo – Dubai (51 %) Stockholm - Malaga (49 %) Oslo - Geneva (48 %) Oslo – Malaga (48 %) Stockholm – Salzburg (42 %) Oslo – Alicante (42 %) Oslo – London (40 %) Oslo – Las Palmas (40 %) All flights between Stockholm and Oslo with Wi-Fi from May – Number of daily round-trips OSL – ARN increases to 9 from May • 11 aircraft with Wi-Fi from summer 2011 • 21 aircraft with Wi-Fi by year-end 2011 • Fleet wide Wi-Fi service by the end of 2012 46 Automation and operational possibilities 41 aircrafts … ”simple” to implement new technology Norwegian Reward CIO Hans-Petter Aanby Slide: 49 A big success 41 aircrafts All 950,000 active members have purchased Norwegian tickets within the last 18 months The Reward system is integrated across Norwegian The Reward customers are loyal The Reward customers increase the airline yield The Reward system is integrated into the infrastructure of the bank Now we are focusing externally, we have started discussions with several attractive partners. New external partners easily connected... AIRLINE BANK CALL Norwegian Group Business Bus Norwegian Reward Possible connect with new external companies and partners... Financial position & aircraft financing CFO Frode Foss Slide: 52 Aircraft financing cash flow profile different from aircraft balance sheet values Aircraft balance sheet value Aircraft order cash flows • Purchase right aircraft displayed only at delivery date (accumulated CF) Slide: 53 Why own aircraft? The P&L view • Unit cost lowest with owned aircraft – including cost of financing • Aircraft 100 % owned after 12 years (fully amortized) • Aircraft configured according to Norwegian’s spec 54 Why own aircraft? Principle chart - cash effect owning versus leasing • Cash neutral three years after delivery • After 6 years cash saved is equivalent to the full equity requirement for a second aircraft • Owning reduces cash outflow by MUSD 10-15 over 12 years from delivery (before residual value) 55 Depreciation owned aircraft Aircraft are decomposed into two main accounting components 1) Maintenance components •on technical 2009/ condition 2010/ 2011 B/S value based wrt maintenance cycle (value restored after overhaul) 2) Aircraft Base value B/S value based on the economic lifetime of the aircraft APU General Overhaul 1 component (hours) 2 primary checks •C-check (hours) •C4-check (hours) Engines Landing Gear (LG) 3 components •Nose LG (cycles/ 8 yrs) •LG left (cycles/ 8 yrs) •LG right (cycles/ 8 yrs) 2 components (pr. engine) •LLP (Life Limited Parts) •PR (Power Restoration) (cycles) (hours) Aircraft financing – One aircraft principle chart 57 Equity Requirement • Original order: 42 aircraft (63 including exercised purchase rights) • Delivery period: 5 years (7 years including exercised purchase rights) • Annual CAPEX: NOK 2.5 – 3.5 billion (Provided no sale & leaseback) • Annual Equity (15 %): NOK 300 – 400 million (Provided no sale & leaseback) • Required net margin: 3–4% (NOK 10 billion turnover c.f. 2011 analyst consensus) 58 Sale and Leaseback (S&LB) A hybrid of regular leasing and owning • Reduces need for financing while offering a lower lease rate or immediate cash gain • The most cost efficient way of diversifying financing sources • Efficient source of financing Alternative A Sell aircraft at market price and realize gain (and cash) Financial Institution Leaseback at market rates Alternative B Sell aircraft at purchase (“discounted”) price Financial Institution Leaseback at “discounted” rates Slide: 59 S&LB effect on requirement for long term financing • S&LB offers considerable flexibility in managing the balance sheet and residual risk • S&LB on i.e. 6 out of 14 aircraft in 2011 reduces required financing by 50 % – The release of equity reduces the requirement for external financing on remaining aircraft CAPEX profile given 48 aircraft on balance sheet as presented at Q4 2009 S&LB reduces requirement for long term financing substantially (2011 financing requirement given S&LB modeled below) Purchased aircraft Sale & Leaseback Reduced number of purch. 14 0 0% 12 2 14 % 10 4 29 % 8 6 43 % 6 8 57 % Slide: 60 Group equity improved by MNOK 103 compared to last year • Equity of NOK 1.5 billion at the end of the first quarter • Group equity ratio of 21 % in Q1 (24 %) • Equity ratio seasonally low after Q1, high after Q3 8,000 7,000 Cash 1,229 6,000 5,000 4,000 1,628 Receivables 1,260 Other current liabilities 1,359 Pre-sold tickets 1,822 1,083 1,483 3,000 Non-current assets 4,630 2,000 1,787 Long term liabilities 2,433 1,173 3,135 1,000 Equity 1,506 1,402 Q1 11 Q1 10 0 Q1 10 Q1 11 Slide: 61 Changes to accounting principles • There is considerable activity around the development of new accounting standards. • Uncertainty about the time of implementation – – • New accounting rules for pension obligations and operating leases on the B/S – – • «Big bang» Distributed over time Not expected to have effect on airlines until 2014 -2015 The rules are not adopted, there is still uncertainty about how the final rules will be. The pension standard will have equity effect – – – What in note 16 is called "Estimate Deviation not recongnised" will reduce equity. It is likely that the part that goes over the P&L will be split between finance and payroll Estimate changes will be recorded against equity 62 Environment Slide: 63 Fuel consumption is a primary advantage of the 737-800 Slide: 64 Emissions benchmark 65 Air travel’s reputation as an environmental “bad boy” is unmerited 66 Norwegian offers 244 scheduled routes to 97 destinations Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Mailing address P.O. Box 113 No – 1330 Fornebu Visiting address Oksenøyveien 3 Telephone Telefax Internet +47 67 59 30 00 +47 67 59 30 01 www.norwegian.com Organization number NO 965 920 358 MVA Slide: 68