Mediterranean Climate Variability Over the Last Centuries

Transcription

File: {Elsevier}Lionello/Revises-I/3d/N52170-Lionello-Ch001.3d
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Chapter 1
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Mediterranean Climate Variability Over
the Last Centuries: A Review
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Jürg Luterbacher,1 Elena Xoplaki,1 Carlo Casty,1 Heinz Wanner,1 Andreas
Pauling,2 Marcel Küttel,2 This Rutishauser,2 Stefan Brönnimann,3 Erich Fischer,3
Dominik Fleitmann,4 Fidel J. González-Rouco,5 Ricardo Garcı́a-Herrera,5
Mariano Barriendos,6 Fernando Rodrigo,7 Jose Carlos Gonzalez-Hidalgo,8
Miguel Angel Saz,8 Luis Gimeno,9 Pedro Ribera,10 Manola Brunet,11 Heiko
Paeth,12 Norel Rimbu,13 Thomas Felis,14 Jucundus Jacobeit,15 Armin Dünkeloh,16 Eduardo Zorita,17 Joel Guiot,18 Murat Türkes,19 Maria Joao Alcoforado,20
Ricardo Trigo,21 Dennis Wheeler,22 Simon Tett,23 Michael E. Mann,24 Ramzi
Touchan,25 Drew T. Shindell,26 Sergio Silenzi,27 Paolo Montagna,27 Dario
Camuffo,28 Annarita Mariotti,29 Teresa Nanni,30 Michele Brunetti,30 Maurizio
Maugeri,31 Christos Zerefos,32 Simona De Zolt,33 Piero Lionello,33 M. Fatima
Nunes,34 Volker Rath,35 Hugo Beltrami,36 Emmanuel Garnier37 and Emmanuel
Le Roy Ladurie38
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NCCR Climate and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
(juerg@giub.unibe.ch, xoplaki@giub.unibe.ch, casty@giub.unibe.ch,
wanner@giub.unibe.ch)
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Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
(pauling@giub.unibe.ch, kuettel@giub.unibe.ch, rutis@giub.unibe.ch)
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ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
(stefan.broennimann@env.ethz.ch, erich.fischer@env.ethz.ch)
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Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
(fleitman@geo.unibe.ch)
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Department of Physics, University Complutense, Madrid, Spain
(fidelgr@fis.ucm.es, rgarciah@fis.ucm.es)
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Department of Modern History, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
(barriendos@eresmas.net)
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Department of Applied Physics, University of Almeria, Spain (frodrigo@ual.es)
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Department of Geography, University of Zaragoza, Spain (jcgh@posta.unizar.es,
masaz@posta.unizar.es)
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Facultad de Ciencias de Ourense, University of Vigo, Orense, Spain
(l.gimeno@uvigo.es)
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Depto. CC. Ambientales, University Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
(pribrod@upo.es)
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Climate Change Research Group, University Rovira i Virgili, Tarragona, Spain
(manola.brunet@urv.net)
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Institute of Meteorology, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
(hpaeth@uni-bonn.de)
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Department of Geosciences, Bucharest University, Bucharest-Magurele, Romania,
and Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven,
Germany (nrimbu@awi-bremerhaven.de)
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DFG-Research Center for Ocean Margins, University of Bremen, Bremen,
Germany (tfelis@uni-bremen.de)
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Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
(jucundus.jacobeit@geo.uni-augsburg.de)
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Institute of Geography, University of Würzburg, Germany
(armin.duenkeloh@mail.uni-wuerzburg.de)
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Department of Paleoclimate, Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS, Geesthacht,
Germany (zorita@gkss.de)
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CEREGE CNRS UMR 6635, BP 80, Aix-en-Provence cedex 4, France
(guiot@cerege.fr)
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Department of Geography, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Canakkale,
Turkey (murat.turkes@comu.edu.tr)
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Centro de Estudos Geográficos. Universidade de Lisboa, FLUL, 1600-214 Lisbon,
Portugal (mjalcoforado@mail.telepac.pt)
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Faculdade de Cieˆncias, Departamento de Fı´sica, Universidade de Lisboa, CGUL
(rmtrigo@fc.ul.pt)
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University of Sunderland, U.K. (denniswheeler@beeb.net)
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Met Office, Hadley Centre, Reading RG6 6BB, U.K.
(simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk)
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Department of Meteorology and Earth & Environmental Systems Institute
(ISSI), The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
(mann@psu.edu)
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Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, Tucson, USA
(rtouchan@ltrr.arizona.edu)
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NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York,
New York, USA (dshindell@giss.nasa.gov)
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ICRAM – Central Institute for Marine Research, Rome, Italy
(s.silenzi@icram.org, p.montagna@icram.org)
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Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council,
Padova, Italy (d.camuffo@isac.cnr.it)
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ENEA, Italy (annarita.mariotti@casaccia.enea.it)
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Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy
(t.nanni@isac.cnr.it, m.brunetti@isac.cnr.it)
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Istituto di Fisica Generale Applicata, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
(maurizio.maugeri@unimi.it)
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Faculty of Geology, Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment,
University of Athens, Athens, Greece (zerefos@geol.uoa.gr)
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Mediterranean Climate Variability Over the Last Centuries: A Review
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Department of Physics, University of Padua, Padova, Italy
(simona.dezolt@pd.infn.it, piero.lionello@pd.infn.it)
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University of Évora Portugal, Department of History, Évora, Portugal
(mfn@uevora.pt)
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Applied Geophysics, RWTH Aachen University, Germany
(v.rath@geophysik.rwth-aachen.de)
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Environmental Sciences Research Center, St. Francis Xavier University,
Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada (hugo@stfx.ca)
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CNRS UMR 6583, University of Caen, Laboratory of Climatic and
Environmental Sciences CEA CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
(Famgarnier14@wanadoo.fr)
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Colle`ge de France, Paris, France (e.le-roy-ladurie@college-de-France.fr)
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1.1. Introduction
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A necessary task for assessing to which degree the industrial period is
unusual against the background of pre-industrial climate variability, is the
reconstruction and interpretation of temporal and spatial patterns of climate
in earlier centuries. The comparison of past climate reconstructions with
numerical models can enhance our dynamical and physical understanding
of the relevant processes. As widespread, direct measurements of climate
variables are only available about one to two centuries back in time, it is
necessary to use indirect indicators or ‘‘proxies’’ of climate variability, which are
recorded in natural archives (coral reefs, ice cores, tree rings, boreholes,
speleothems, etc.). These archives record, by their biological, chemical and
physical nature, climate-related phenomena (Jones and Mann, 2004). The use
of natural proxies, especially in a quantitative way, is a more recent tool in
paleoclimate research.
Additionally, documentary evidence provides information about past climate
variability by means of direct or indirect descriptions of climate-related
phenomena (e.g. Pfister, 1999, 2005; Bartholy et al., 2004; Chuine et al., 2004;
Brázdil et al., 2005; Glaser and Stangl, 2005; Guiot et al., 2005; Przybylak
et al., 2005; Le Roy Ladurie, 2004, 2005). The Mediterranean area offers
a broad spectrum of long high-quality instrumental time series, documentary
information and natural archives, both in time and space, making this area
is ideal for climate reconstructions of past centuries, as well as for the analysis
of changes in climate extremes and socio-economic impacts prior to the
instrumental period.
Documentary evidence such as written sources, paintings or flood markers
have widely been used for climate reconstructions (e.g. Luterbacher et al., 2004;
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Casty et al., 2005; Guiot et al., 2005; Xoplaki et al., 2005). In the Mediterranean
area, documentary evidence reaches more than two millennia back in time.
The question to what extent climate has changed since the classical epoch and
whether or not the extensive deforestation was the cause for climatic change
in this region has been discussed since the eighteenth century (Brönnimann,
2003). Mann (1790) concluded from written sources that climate has become
progressively warmer and drier over time, which he could not explain by land use
changes. Others did not support the idea of a progressive climate change. Ideler
(1832), for instance, criticized Mann in being too trustful in his documentary
sources. The question was discussed by many others, partly in the context of
the deforestation and reforestation debate in the nineteenth century (e.g. Rico
Sinobas, 1851; Arago, 1858; Fischer, 1879; Günther, 1886; Brückner, 1890).
Hence, studies on past Mediterranean climate variability as well as the use of
documentary evidence for climate reconstruction have a long scientific tradition.
There are distinct differences in the temporal resolution among the various
proxies. Some of the proxy records are annually or even higher resolved
(documentary data, growth and density measurements from tree rings, corals,
annually resolved ice cores, laminated ocean and lake sediment cores, and
speleothems) and hence record year-by-year patterns of climate in past centuries
(Jones and Mann, 2004). Other proxies such as boreholes capture the lowfrequency signal. Jones and Mann (2004) review the strengths of each proxy
source with emphasis on the potential weaknesses and caveat.
Climate records for land areas (compared to marine records) exhibit a high
degree of geographical variability due to local peculiarities. The use of a broad
collection of proxies may help in disentangling the geographical complexity
(e.g. Pla and Catalan, 2005). Properties such as sensitivity, reproducibility, local
availability and continuity through time differ among them (Mann, 2002a;
Pauling et al., 2003; Jones and Mann, 2004).
A number of previous studies have focused on global to hemispheric temperature reconstructions over the past few centuries to millennia, based on both
empirical proxy data (Bradley and Jones, 1993; Jones et al., 1998; Overpeck et al.,
1997; Briffa et al., 1998, 2001, 2002, 2004; Mann et al., 1998, 1999; Crowley and
Lowery, 2000; Harris and Chapman, 2001; Esper et al., 2002, 2004, 2005a,b;
Beltrami and Bourlon, 2004; Cook et al., 2004; Huang, 2004; Pollack and
Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005) and model simulations including forcing
data (e.g. Crowley, 2000; Waple et al., 2002; Bauer et al., 2003; Gerber et al.,
2003; González-Rouco et al., 2003a,b, 2006; Rutherford et al., 2003, 2005;
von Storch et al., 2004; Zorita et al., 2004, 2005; Goosse et al., 2005a,b,c; Mann
et al., 2005; Stendel et al., 2006; van der Schrier and Barkmeijer, 2005). Several
of the temperature reconstructions reveal that the late twentieth century
warmth is unprecedented at hemispheric scales, and can only be explained by
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anthropogenic, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing (Jones and Mann, 2004 and
references therein).
Hemispheric temperature reconstructions cannot provide information about
regional-scale climate variations. Several sources point to differing courses of
temperature change in Europe and the generally greater amplitude of variations
than recorded for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) (e.g. Mann et al., 2000; Jones
and Mann, 2004; Luterbacher et al., 2004; Brázdil et al., 2005; Casty et al., 2005a;
Guiot et al., 2005; Xoplaki et al., 2005). For instance, the European heat wave
of summer 2003 was a regional expression of an extreme event, much larger in
amplitude than extremes at hemispheric scales (Chuine et al., 2004; Luterbacher
et al., 2004; Pal et al., 2004; Rebetez, 2004; Schär et al., 2004; Schönwiese et al.,
2004; Stott et al., 2004; Menzel, 2005; Trigo et al., 2005; Büntgen et al., 2005a,b;
Casty et al., 2005a). The 2003 June–August mean temperature for the larger
Mediterranean land area exceeded the 1961–1990 reference period by around
2.3 C (Luterbacher et al., 2004; Stott et al., 2004), and makes it the warmest
summer for more than the last 500 years (Luterbacher et al., 2004). Stott et al.
(2004) suggest, that human influence has likely doubled the risk of a heatwave
exceeding this threshold magnitude of around 2 C in this area.
We would like to point out that this review mainly deals with the climate
variability over the last few centuries covering the larger Mediterranean area
of 30 N–47 N and 10 W–40 E. We will not report about climate reconstructions, climate change and variability over longer timescales. There are many
publications (e.g. Araus et al., 1997; Jalut et al., 1997, 2000; Davis et al., 2003;
Rimbu et al., 2003a; Battarbee et al., 2004; Felis et al., 2004) dealing with
these topics. The new book edited by Battarbee et al. (2004, and references
therein) provides a major synthesis of evidence for past climate variability at the
regional- and continental-scale across Europe and Africa, including parts of
the Mediterranean. It focuses on two complementary timescales, the Holocene
(approximately the last 11,500 years) and the last glacial–interglacial cycle
(approximately the last 130,000 years).
We first report on the availability and potential of long, homogenized
instrumental data, documentary and natural proxies to reconstruct aspects
of past climate at local- to regional-scales within the larger Mediterranean
area, including climate extremes and the incidence of natural disasters. We then
turn to recent attempts of large-scale multi-proxy field reconstructions for the
Mediterranean land areas and discuss the importance of natural and documentary proxies for regional seasonal temperature and precipitation reconstructions.
In Section 1.4 of this chapter, we analyse the reconstructions with respect to the
evolution of the averaged Mediterranean winter temperature and precipitation back to 1500 and discuss uncertainties, trends, cold and warm, wet and
dry periods and present climate fields of extremes covering the last centuries.
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We also briefly address the question how major tropical volcanos influenced
Mediterranean winter climate over the past. We investigate whether particularly
dry and wet as well as cold and warm Mediterranean winters occurred more
frequently during the twentieth century, when climate is increasingly affected
by human activity through emissions of GHGs, than earlier. For sub-areas the
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI; e.g. Palmer, 1965; Guiot et al., 2005) is
derived and changes are discussed in the context of the past. We then analyse the
large-scale atmospheric circulation influence on past and present Mediterranean
winter climate inclusive extremes at seasonal scale (Section 1.5). In Section 1.6
we will briefly comment on the possible teleconnections between Mediterranean
climate and other parts of the NH related to past climate. The relations
between variability in the Mediterranean region and global tropical oceans,
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian and African Monsoon and
the mid-latitudes for the instrumental period will be discussed in Chapters 2
and 3. Finally, in Section 1.7 the climate reconstructions are compared with
forced simulations of the climate models ECHO-G and HadCM3. Thereby we
address the role of external forcing, including natural (e.g. volcanic and solar
irradiance) and anthropogenic (GHG and sulphate aerosol) influences, and
natural, internal variability in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system at subcontinental scale. We end with conclusions and an outlook on future directions
related to Mediterranean past climate.
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1.2. Past Regional Mediterranean Climate Evidence and Extremes
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1.2.1. Evidence from Early Instrumental and Documentary Data
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The Mediterranean offers a few long, high-quality and homogenized instrumental station series covering the past few centuries. In the late 1500 Galileo, the
Grand Duke of Tuscany and the Accademia del Cimento invented the modern
meteorological instruments (thermometer, barometer, hygrometer) and started
regular observations. From Bologna, Padova, Milan and the Po Plain (Italy)
there are temperature, precipitation and pressure series available at daily-tomonthly resolution (Table 1; Camuffo, 1984, 2002a,b,c; Brunetti et al., 2001;
Cocheo and Camuffo, 2002; Maugeri et al., 2002a,b, 2004). Long instrumental
temperature, precipitation and pressure series available from southern and
northeastern Spain (Rodriguez et al., 2001; Barriendos et al., 2002; Rodrigo,
2002; Vinther et al., 2003b). Alcoforado et al. (1997, 1999) and Taborda et al.
(2004) used combined weather and climate information from Portuguese
documentary sources and early instrumental data back to the eighteenth century
(Table 1). Apart from natural proxies (Section 1.2.2), documentary proxy evidence
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Daily and
monthly
Monthly,
seasonal
Monthly
Monthly
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TE
Daily/
monthly
Daily/
monthly
Daily/
monthly
Daily/
monthly
Daily/
monthly
Daily/
monthly
Daily/
monthly
Maugeri et al. (2003)
Rodriguez et al. (2001)
Barriendos et al. (2002)
Pressure
Temperature,
pressure
Temperature,
precipitation,
drought
Temperature,
precipitation
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Pressure
O
Precipitation
O
PR
Camuffo (2002a,b,c);
Cocheo & Camuffo (2002)
Brunetti et al. (2001)
Temperature,
pressure
Temperature,
precipitation
Temperature,
pressure
Pressure
Alcoforado et al.
(1997, 1999)
(Continued)
Taborda et al. (2004)
Vinther et al. (2003b)
Rodrigo (2002)
Maugeri et al. (2002a,b)
Camuffo (1984)
References
Precipitation
Temporal resolution Parameter
EC
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R
O
Type of ‘‘proxy’’
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U
Time period
1721–present Instrumental
records
Padova (Italy)
records
Bologna (Italy)
records
Milan (Italy)
records
Po Plain (Italy)
records
Barcelona (Spain) 1780–present Instrumental
records
Cadiz-San
1786–present Documentary and
Fernando (Spain)
instrumental
records
San Fernando
(Spain)
records
Gibraltar (UK)
records
Southern Portugal 1700–1799
Documentary and
early instrumental
records
Lisbon (Portugal) 1815–present Early instrumental
Padova (Italy)
Location
Table 1: Compilation of long early homogenized instrumental data and documentary proxy evidence from the
Mediterranean (see Section 1.2.1 for details)
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Documentary,
rogations
Rogations
Documentary,
rogations
Correspondence
and documentary
evidence
1521–2000
1570–2000
1675–1715
1634–1648
1500–1997
Murcia (Spain)
Spain, 5 points
36 N–44 N;
9 W–4 E
Castille (Spain)
Andalusia (Spain)
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Miscellaneous
documentary
evidence
Rogations
Extremes,
annual
Extremes
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Extremes,
monthly,
seasonal
Extremes,
irregular
F
O
O
Rainfall indices,
droughts, excessive
rainfall
Precipitation
(snowfalls,
droughts, floods),
temperature,
general weather
conditions
Precipitation,
droughts, floods
Precipitation,
droughts, floods
Precipitation,
droughts, floods
Extremes,
monthly and
seasonal
Extremes,
monthly and
seasonal
Annual
D
Frequency of
drought, weather
Extremes
Frequency of
extreme events
(flood
magnitude)
Drought indices
Temporal resolution Parameter
EC
R
Documentary,
rogations
O
1521–1825
1521–1825
Documentary
C
N
1300–1970
Spanish
Mediterranean
Coast; 37 N–43 N,
2 W–4 E
Catalonia (Spain;
40 N–43 N,
0 E–4 E)
Catalonia (Spain)
40 N–43 N,
0 E–4 E
Barcelona (Spain)
Time period
Location
Table 1: Continued
Rodrigo et al.
(1999, 2000)
Rodrigo et al. (1998)
Barriendos (1997)
Barriendos (1997);
Barriendos &
Martin-Vide (1998)
Barriendos & Rodrigo
(2005)
Barriendos & Llasat
(2003)
Martin-Vide &
Barriendos (1995)
Barriendos & Martin-Vide
(1998)
References
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1200–1999
Wet period
D
Burgundy (France) 1370–present Grape harvest
Spring–
from documentary Summer
evidence
Marseille (France) 1100–1994
Documentary
Summer
evidence, isotopes,
tree rings,
Southeastern
France
Different
documentary
sources
Documentary
and early
instrumental
TE
Temperature
F
O
Temperature,
precipitation
(droughts, floods)
Hydrological
parameters (e.g.
floods, annual
maxima discharges)
Temperature
Precipitation,
wetness/drought
Compilation of
different past
climate-related
topics, weather,
temperature and
precipitation, logbook information,
tropical cyclones,
etc.
Temperature,
precipitation
(droughts, floods)
O
PR
Irregular
(from 2 to
17 monthly
weather
information)
Monthly,
seasonal
Extended
winter
Daily, monthly
and seasonal
EC
Correspondence
R
R
O
Agricultural
records
Miscellaneous
documentary,
early instrumental
data
C
N
1663–1665
Last
centuries–
present
U
1595–1836
Southern Portugal 1675–1715
Central Portugal
Canary Islands
(Spain)
Spain
(Continued)
Le Roy Ladurie (1983,
2004, 2005);
Chuine et al. (2004)
Guiot et al. (2005)
Guilbert (1994);
Pichard (1999)
Alcoforado et al.
(2000)
Daveau (1997)
Garcı́a-Herrera
et al. (2003b)
http://www.ucm.es/info/
reclido/
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U
Western
Mediterranean
and Adriatic sea
Italy
1300–present Documentary
sources, early
instrumental
records
Last
Documentary
millennium
sources
Padova (Italy)
sources
Documentary
sources
BC
414–present
Tiber and Po
rivers (Italy)
Documentary
sources
579–present
Irregular
Irregular
Irregular
Irregular
D
Irregular
TE
Irregular
F
Atmospheric
circulation,
sea storms
High-pressure
situations (based
on dry fog and
volcanic clouds)
O
Frozen lagoon,
‘‘temperature’’
Algae belt level
and sea level rise
Flooding tides,
Scirocco and
Bora wind
Locust invasions,
Scirocco and
Bora wind
Precipitation, flood
magnitude/
frequency
Storms, hailstorm,
thunderstorm
Parameter
O
PR
Irregular,
winter severity
Irregular
Temporal
resolution
EC
R
R
O
C
6th century– Documentary
present
sources
1700–present Iconographic
sources
sources
N
Time period
Northern and
Central Italy
Venice (Italy)
Venice (Italy)
Venice (Italy)
Location
Table 1: Continued
Camuffo & Enzi
(1994b, 1995c)
Camuffo et al. (2000a)
Camuffo et al. (2000b)
Camuffo & Enzi (1996)
Camuffo & Enzi (1991)
Camuffo & Sturaro
(2003, 2004)
Camuffo (1993);
Enzi & Camuffo (1995)
Camuffo (1987)
References
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622–present
1750–1854
Egypt
Eastern Atlantic
oceanic area
Greece
(northern part)
Greece and
southern Balkans,
partly Cyprus
Palermo
(southern Italy)
1565–1915
Sicily (Italy)
R
R
O
C
Documentary
sources
Ships’
logbooks
Nilometer,
documentary
evidence
Extremes
Irregular
Irregular,
extremes
D
Daily
Irregular,
seasonal
F
O
Repapis et al. (1989)
Temperature and Xoplaki et al. (2001)
precipitation,
inclusive droughts,
floods
Flood levels of the Fraedrich & Bantzer
Nile river
(1991); Eltahir & Wang
(1999); Kondrashov
et al. (2005 &
references therein)
Pressure fields,
www.ucm.es/info/cliwoc
storm frequencies,
wind force, wind
direction and
general weather
Temperature
Camuffo & Enzi
(1992, 1994a 1995b);
Brazdil et al. (1999);
Glaser et al. (1999);
Pfister et al. (1999)
High pressure, low Camuffo & Enzi
dispersion (based (1994, 1995c)
on dry fogs)
Precipitation
Piervitali & Colacino
(drought)
(2001)
Precipitation
Diodato (2006)
Precipitation
(droughts, floods),
temperature,
extreme
O
PR
Severe winter
extremes
Monthly, not
continuous
TE
Annual
EC
Religious
processions
evidence and
instrumental data
1200–1900
Documentary
evidence
1675–1830
Documentary
evidence
1300–1900
N
U
1500–1799
Southern Italy
Italy
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261
262
263
264
265
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267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
F
259
O
258
O
257
PR
256
D
255
TE
254
EC
253
R
252
R
251
O
250
C
249
is increasingly used for regional-to-continental climate reconstructions and
analyses of extremes during the last few centuries before instrumental data
became available (Pfister, 1992, 2005; Pfister et al., 1998, 1999; Brázdil et al.,
1999, 2003, 2004, 2005; Glaser et al., 1999; Pfister and Brázdil, 1999; Rácz, 1999;
Brázdil and Dobrovolny, 2000, 2001; Glaser, 2001; van Engelen et al., 2001;
Benito et al., 2003a,b; Shabalova and van Engelen, 2003; Bartholy et al., 2004;
Chuine et al., 2004; Luterbacher et al., 2004; Casty et al., 2005a; Guiot et al.,
2005; Glaser and Stangl, 2005; Menzel, 2005; Przybylak et al., 2005; Xoplaki
et al., 2005). Documentary evidence is best suited to analyse the impact of natural
disasters (e.g. severe floods, droughts, windstorms, frosts, hailstorms, heat waves)
on past societies (see Pfister, 1992, 1999, 2005; Martin-Vide and Barriendos,
1995; Barriendos, 1997, 2005; Barriendos and Martin-Vide, 1998; Pfister et al.,
1998, 1999, 2002; Brázdil et al., 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005; Pfister and Brázdil, 1999
for a review and references therein; Barriendos and Llasat, 2003; Benito et al.,
2003a,b).
Analysing reports of climate extremes in the context of other proxy climate
information enables an investigation of the relationship between fluctuations
in mean climate and the frequency of extremes (Katz and Brown, 1992) – a major
source of societal concern in light of global warming (e.g. Pfister, 2005).
Documentary evidence comprises all non-instrumental man-made data on past
weather and climate as well as instrumental observations, prior to the set-up of
continuous meteorological networks. Non-instrumental evidence is subdivided
into descriptive documentary data (including weather observations, e.g. reports
from chronicles, daily weather reports, travel diaries, ship logbooks, etc.) and
documentary proxy data (more indirect evidence that reflects weather events or
climatic conditions such as the beginning of agricultural activities, the time of
freezing and opening up of waterways, religious ceremonies in favour of ending
meteorological stress, etc. Brázdil et al., 2005 and references therein). In general,
descriptive evidence has a good dating control and high temporal resolution
(often down to the single day). The data distinguish meteorological elements and
cover all months and seasons. However, descriptive evidence is discontinuous and
biased by the perception of the observer (Glaser, 2001; Brázdil et al., 2005;
Pfister, 2005). The methods of analysis involves collocating a substantial amount
of quality-controlled descriptive and proxy evidence for a given region (Pfister
et al., 1998, 2002; Bartholy et al., 2004; Brázdil et al., 2005; Glaser and Stangl,
2005; Pfister, 2005; Przybylak et al., 2005). Long series of documentary proxy
data are calibrated against instrumental measurements. The spatial and logical
comparisons and crosschecking of the entire body of evidence collocated for
a given month or season allows the assessment of a climatic tendency, which is
in the form of an intensity index for temperature and/or precipitation covering
the last centuries. Very recently, Pfister (2005) nicely discussed the climate
N
248
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247
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291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
sensitivity of early modern economies, climate impacts and crises during the LIA
at European scale pointing to the importance of temporally high resolved
information from documentary proxy evidence.
Figure 3 presents an example of a document that describes the damages
experienced in irrigation network of the city Lleida (Catalonia, Spain) on
10 June 1379. Usually these hydraulic installations experienced slight to moderate
damages when the snowmelt in the Pyrenees Mountains produced an increase
of water flow in Segre River. In this case, the damage was particularly large.
Then, not only climatic hazards information can be analysed, but also attitude
of human communities in previous historical contexts: People and authorities
knew about extreme weather events and accepted a certain risk of damage or
destruction. They recorded the phenomena by evaluating the damages and by
preparing reconstructions.
F
289
O
288
O
301
302
PR
303
304
305
D
306
TE
307
308
EC
309
310
R
311
312
R
313
O
314
319
N
318
Figure 3: Left: An example of a document that describes the damages in irrigation
network of the city Lleida (Catalonia, Spain) on 10 June 1379. Right: Painting
of a historical flood event in Barcelona, Spain 1862 (Amades, 1984).
U
317
C
315
316
39
320
321
322
323
In the following subsection, we review the availability of documentary evidence
from the Mediterranean area and how are they used for local-to-regional climate
reconstructions. The compiled information is summarized in Table 1.
324
325
326
327
328
Iberian Peninsula
Recent studies performed in the last decade have confirmed that the two Iberian
countries (Spain and Portugal) have a considerable amount of climate documentary information since the Low Middle Age (fourteenth–fifteenth countries).
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334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
F
332
O
331
Spain, in particular, possesses information with a good degree of continuity and
homogeneity for a large number of cities. Thus, the Spanish historical
archives exhibit great potential for inferences into climate variability at different
timescales and for different territories. Garcı́a-Herrera et al. (2003a) report on
the main archives and discuss the techniques and strategies to obtain climaterelevant information from documentary records.
Precipitation patterns are the most evident limiting factor for human activities
and natural ecosystems in the Mediterranean. If climatic change produces
quantitative or qualitative alteration of rainfall patterns, human communities
and natural ecosystems can be irreversibly damaged. Martin-Vide and
Barriendos (1995), Barriendos (1997, 2005) and Barriendos and Llasat (2003)
used rogation ceremony records from Catalonia (Spain) for precipitation
reconstructions (Fig. 4). Rogations were an institutional mechanism to drive
social stress in front of climatic anomalies or meteorological extremes (e.g.
Barriendos, 2005). Municipal and ecclesiastical authorities involved in the
process guarantee the reliability of the ceremony and continuous documentary
record of all rogations convoked. On the other hand, duration and severity
of natural phenomena-stressing society is perceived by different levels of
O
330
PR
329
D
347
TE
348
349
EC
350
351
R
352
353
R
354
O
355
C
356
359
360
U
358
N
357
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
Figure 4: Left: Manuscript recording one severe rogation ceremony following
drought in Girona city (Catalonia, NE Spain), April 1526. Historical City
Archive of Girona. This ceremony consists in a pilgrimage from Girona to
St. Feliu de Guixols (20 km) to immerse one relic in sea water (mummified
head of Sain Feliu). Right: Saint Narcisus was the first bishop of Girona. His
relics were displayed in the Cathedral in rogations both for drought (pro
pluvia) and during long periods of rain (pro serenitate). (Martı́n-Vide and
Barriendos, 1995; Barriendos, 1997).
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383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
F
382
O
381
O
380
PR
379
D
378
TE
377
EC
376
R
375
R
374
O
373
C
372
liturgical ceremonies applied (e.g. Martı́n-Vide and Barriendos, 1995; Barriendos,
1997, 2005).
Rodrigo et al. (1998) analysed climatic information in private correspondence
of a Jesuit Order in Castille (Spain) for 1634–1648. They showed prevalence
of intense rainfall and cold waves in that period. Rodrigo et al. (1999, 2000, 2001)
reconstructed a 500-year seasonal precipitation record for Andalusia (Spain)
and derived a winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index based on
meteorological information on droughts, abundant rainfall, floods, hail, etc.
This information was obtained from a wide variety of documentary sources
such as Municipal Acts, private correspondence, urban annals, chronicles, brief
relations describing extreme events, agricultural records, etc. Results of these
studies indicate rainfall fluctuations, without abrupt changes, in the following
alternating dry and wet phases: 1501–1589 dry, 1590–1649 wet, 1650–1775 dry,
1776–1937 wet and 1938–1997 dry. Possible causal mechanisms for these
variations most likely include the NAO with drought (floods) being related to
extreme positive (negative) NAO values. Precipitation in the Canary Islands
has been reconstructed using agricultural records for the period 1595–1836
(Garcı́a-Herrera et al., 2003b). Barriendos and Martin-Vide (1998), Benito et al.
(2003a,b) and Llasat et al. (2003) investigated flood magnitude and frequency
within the context of climatic variability for the last centuries for central Spain
and Catalonia. The authors found evidence for high flood frequencies in the
past, which are similar to present conditions. Comparable catastrophic events
have been recorded at least once each century.
Most recently, weather information was obtained from original documentary
sources from the northeastern (Barcelona) and southeastern (Murcia) coast
of the Iberian Peninsula, respectively (Barriendos and Rodrigo, 2005). The
climatic indicators used are ‘‘pro pluvia’’ (ceremonies to obtain rainfall) and
‘‘pro serenitate’’ (ceremonies to stop continuous rainfall events) rogations.
These proxy data records offer highest reliability and excellent perspectives in
historical climatology for the Roman Catholic cultural world (Martı́n-Vide
and Barriendos, 1995; Barriendos, 2005). A numerical index, ranging from 3
(severe droughts) to þ 3 (catastrophic floods), was established to characterize
the seasonal rainfall and its evolution. The information was calibrated against
overlapping instrumental data (for Barcelona 1786–1850; in case of Murcia
1866–1900), whereas a cross-validation procedure was employed to confirm the
reliability of the calibrations. The regression equations between index values
and instrumental data were used to extend seasonal rainfall series for the
Iberian Peninsula back in time (Rodrigo et al., 1999; Barriendos and Rodrigo,
2005). Figure 5 presents standardized anomalies of seasonal rainfall in Barcelona
and Murcia with regard to the 1961–1990 reference period. It shows the
fluctuating character of precipitation with important wet (first half of the
N
371
U
370
41
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Rainfall anomalies
Winter (Barcelona)
EC
TE
D
PR
O
O
Rainfall anomalies
F
Spring (Barcelona)
R
R
O
C
N
U
Rainfall anomalies
Autumn (Murcia)
Figure 5: Top: Reconstruction of winter precipitation anomalies at Barcelona,
Middle: Spring at Barcelona and Bottom: Autumn at Murcia back to the sixteenth
century. Solid thin line: Seasonal rainfall standardized anomalies (reference
period 1961–1990); Thick line: 11-year running average (Barriendos and Rodrigo,
2005).
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425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
F
423
O
422
O
421
PR
420
D
419
TE
418
EC
417
R
416
R
415
O
414
C
413
seventeenth century and around 1850) and dry periods (around 1650 and 1750)
during winter (Barcelona). For spring, a wet period in the last decades of the
sixteenth century and a dry period from the first decades of the seventeenth
century to approximately 1750 has been found for Barcelona. In Murcia, there is
a slight decreasing trend, visible in autumn rainfall.
The earliest documentary sources for Portugal (Western Iberia) correspond
to the seventeenth century. Daveau (1997) analysed private letters of a priest of
the Jesuit Order (António Vieira) and has reconstructed weather in Central
Portugal from December 1663 to September 1665. It is stated that between
December 1664 until March 1665 very long sequences of rainy weather occurred,
as well as floods of the large Iberian (Tagus) and Portuguese rivers (Mondego).
Concerning temperature variability, for example, Vieira writes that in April
1664 there occurred ‘‘the greatest cold as in December (in the first half of the
month) as well as hot spells similar to those in Guinea (western Africa) (at the
end of the month)’’.
Alcoforado et al. (2000) have used several documentary sources such as
diaries, ecclesiastical documents (including references to ‘‘pro pluvia’’ and ‘‘pro
serenitate’’ rogation ceremonies, see above) to reconstruct temperature and
precipitation variability in southern Portugal, during the Late Maunder
Minimum (LMM, 1675–1715). One of the diaries refers to the period from
1696 to 1716 and although non-meteorological news is the thread throughout
it, there are detailed descriptions of weather and of the author’s perception of
its consequences (Alcoforado et al., 2000). The main conclusions are that, after
1693, conditions in Portugal were rather cold (with snowfall events in Lisbon
that hardly ever occur nowadays). Precipitation, on the other hand, showed
a very pronounced variability, similar to the present. Taborda et al. (2004)
extended the study covering the whole eighteenth century based on descriptive
documentary sources (institutional, ecclesiastical, municipal, private and from
the press) and early instrumental records (from 1781 to 1793). The winters of
1708–09 (also described in Alcoforado et al., 2000), 1739–40 and 1788–89 were
particularly severe. All these winters coincide with very cold conditions on the
European scale (Luterbacher et al., 2004). In the beginning of the eighteenth
century, precipitation shows strong variability (Fig. 6) with persistent rain from
winter 1706–07 until summer 1709 and droughts during winter 1711–12 and
between spring 1714 and autumn 1715. Very strong rainfall variability
characterized the 1730s confirmed by the highest frequency of ‘‘pro pluvia’’
and ‘‘pro serenitate’’ rogation ceremonies. At the end of the eighteenth century,
a period of eight rainy years, beginning in 1783 has to be mentioned. A
significant, although low negative correlation, was found between the North
Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI; Luterbacher et al., 1999, 2002a) and yearly
and seasonal precipitation in Portugal (Fig. 6).
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453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
Figure 6: Annual precipitation index in southern Portugal (Taborda et al., 2004).
O
464
F
463
O
465
466
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
PR
D
TE
EC
473
R
472
R
471
O
470
C
469
Regular meteorological observations in Lisbon begun in December
1815, carried out by M.M. Franzini, due to public health needs (Alcoforado
et al., 1997, 1999). Although 1815–1817 meteorological data were published by
the Portuguese Academy of Sciences, the subsequent data have been gathered
mostly from newspapers. The data between 1817 and 1854 presents some gaps,
one of them lasting nine years (1826–1835). The data were used to study the
relation between climate and society (agriculture, human health, necrology).
An attempt to construct a reliable meteorological series for Lisbon from 1815
to the present is on its way (M. Alcoforado, personal communication).
In summary, climatic research from documentary sources in the Iberian
Peninsula is still in its early stages. The current knowledge provides a patchy
vision of past climate in Spain and Portugal. Mostly because of lack of funding, there has not been a systematic attempt to explore the main Spanish
and Portuguese archives, such as the Archivo de Simancas, and a lot of
local archives. Despite the effort required to collect information from original
archives, a tremendous unexploited potential in different archives in many
Spanish regions exist: economic information from agriculture (production and
tributary statistics), monastic documentary sources for High Middle Age (eighth–
thirteenth centuries), or documentary testimonies from the top of ecological
thresholds (farming on medium/high mountains). Most of the information is
related to the rainfall, which is of greatest importance for an agricultural
economy. In this sense, not much research on temperature has been made so far.
The Spanish groups working in the paleoclimatology field have a network called
RECLIDO (Climate Reconstruction from Documentary sources; www.ucm.es/
info/reclido), which summarizes most of the work done in Iberia. In Portugal,
research is being carried out to collect data from the sixteenth and seventeenth
N
468
U
467
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45
centuries, mostly referring to rainfall and its consequences on agriculture
(J. Taborda, personal communication).
495
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
F
499
O
498
France
Pichard (1999) has studied the variations of climate and hydrology in southern
France from documentary sources. They are based on records of extreme events
like floods, presence of ice, insect invasion, long instrumental records and
economic data. Figure 7 shows as an example the statistics of floods in the
Durance Valley, a river running from the Alps to the Rhone Valley in Avignon.
This river was well known in the previous centuries for frequent flooding events.
It appears that the period 1540–1900 was characterized by much more frequent
floods as compared to the twentieth century. The same kind of situation is also
reported for the Rhone Valley. Floodings in the Durance catchment reflect
mainly winter and spring precipitation, the most dominant in the southern Alps.
Before 1540, only the period 1330–1410 was wet. It is assumed that these two wet
periods were due to higher winter precipitation and also much more snow in the
southern Alps.
O
497
PR
496
510
D
511
TE
512
513
EC
514
515
R
516
517
R
518
O
519
C
520
523
524
Years (AD)
Figure 7: Reconstruction of the Durance river (France) flood events by
Guilbert (1994) reconstructed from documentary sources: number of months
with floods per decades.
U
522
N
521
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
As for other parts of the Mediterranean (Xoplaki et al., 2001 for Greece),
the wettest climate of the ‘‘Little Ice Age’’ (LIA) occurred during the periods
1650–1710 and 1750–1820. Guiot et al. (2005) recently reconstructed the
temperature at Marseille Observatoire (Fig. 8) based on a combination of
a variety of documentary proxy evidence (among them grape-harvest dates from
France) and tree-ring information. They showed a LIA cooling of 0.5 C
with maxima of 1.5 C, in phase with western Europe. The recent warming of
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535
536
537
538
539
540
541
546
547
548
549
F
545
O
544
Figure 8: Reconstruction of the summer (April–September) temperature in
Marseille Observatoire compared with observations (all the values are expressed
in C as departures from the 1961–1990 mean of 19.5 C). The reconstructions
are obtained from tree-ring series combined with documentary data (vine-harvest
dates, number of months with ice in the Rhone River etc.). In grey is the
confidence interval at the 90% level (Guiot et al., 2005, the last millennium
summer temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data, Holocene
15,489–500). Copyright 2005, Edward Arnold (Publishers) Limited.
O
543
PR
542
550
551
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
D
TE
EC
R
557
R
556
O
555
C
554
N
553
1 C was never reached in the context of the last millennium even if it still lies
within the confidence interval of the previous centuries (Guiot et al., 2005).
The Swiss physicist Louis Dufour (1870) was the first to discover the value
of dates on the opening of vine harvests for the reconstruction of temperatures
in the pre-instrumental period. He was followed by the French climatologist
Alfred Angot, who provided a catalogue of documentary evidence in France
(Angot, 1885). French records of grape-harvest dates in Burgundy (Le Roy
Ladurie and Baulant, 1980, 1981; Pfister, 1992; Soriau and Yiou, 2001; Chuine
et al., 2004; Le Roy Ladurie, 2004, 2005; Menzel, 2005) were used to reconstruct
spring–summer temperatures from 1370 to 2003 using a process-based phenology
model developed for the Pinot Noir grape (Chuine et al., 2004). The results reveal
that summer temperatures as high as those reached in the 1990s have occurred
several times in Burgundy since 1370. However, the summer of 2003 appears
to have been extraordinary, with temperatures that were probably higher than
in any other year since 1370 (Chuine et al., 2004). Le Roy Ladurie (2004) recently
presented a very nice overview of the past climate conditions, socio-economic
conditions and climate impacts in France.
Summarized historical written documents in France are insufficiently
exploited. After the work of Le Roy Ladurie (1983), grape-harvest dates series
have shown their potential and recent work of Chuine et al. (2004) and Le Roy
Ladurie (2005) has proved that it is possible to translate them into quantitative
temperature series. However, this has been limited to the non-Mediterranean
part of France and Switzerland, even if potentialities for an extension exist
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589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
F
587
O
586
O
585
PR
584
D
583
TE
582
EC
581
R
580
R
579
O
578
C
577
(Pichard, 1999). This latter author has shown that other sources are also available, such as religious processions for rain (such as from the Iberian Peninsula,
see above), cereal price series, insect invasions, river floodings and ice presence.
The French corpus of documentary sources opens new horizons for climate
historians due to a long tradition of centralizing policy in the French Kingdom.
Thus, it exhibits great potential for inferences into climate at different timescales and for different regions. The ‘‘Intendances’’, for example, were areas
for ‘‘Police, Law and Finance’’ in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.
Their archives (Garnier, 2005) contain a lot of grievances, tax exemption for
floods, hailstorms, dryness and storms. Likewise, the sources of ‘‘Admiralties’’
(‘‘Amirautés’’ in French), naval areas, created in 1665 for French Mediterranean
coastline are very interesting for their ‘‘Ship Log reports’’ (Garnier, 2004). These
latest papers are very valuable because of their weather and chronology
observations (wind directions, storms, shipwrecks, dates). Religious records
must not be forgotten either with numerous ex voto of storms or floods, rogations
and monastic documentary sources (account books). Finally, it is necessary to
take account of the vast amount of agricultural records like diaries of page`s
(fifteenth and nineteenth centuries) – fluent peasants in Catalonia and Languedoc
– and the books of Parceria – farming leases studied by Le Roy Ladurie (1966)
and Garnier (2005b). All these proxy sources have their own limitations and
biases (for example productivity improvements in agriculture, variations of the
river depth due to sediment transfer, etc.). An integrated approach involving
many proxies (Guiot et al., 2005) or in combination with modeling as used by
Chuine et al. (2004) for grape-harvest dates might be a successful way for further
research in the area. In the future, the French research in climate history should
enjoy a new boom with the national programme OPHELIE (Observation
PHEnologiques pour reconstruire le CLImat de l’Europe) that brings together
mathematicians (P. Yiou) and historians (E. Le Roy Ladurie and E. Garnier).
This ambitious project has been put in charge of the Laboratory of Climatic and
Environmental Sciences CEA CNRS of Gif-sur-Yvette and it aims at proposing
a climate reconstruction based on phenological data as grape-harvest dates,
on municipal account books, rogations and an international meteorological
network established by Vicq d’Azyr at the end of the eighteenth century.
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47
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
Italy
Italy has a long history with early civilization and written documents beginning
in the Roman times. For instance, it was possible to reconstruct the flooding
series of the river Tiber for Rome back to 2400-year BP (Camuffo and Enzi,
1995b, 1996). The flooding of river Tiber in Rome offers the opportunity
of having one of the longest discharge series in the world. Over the centuries,
the river response has had some minor changes to the meteorological forcing
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630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
F
628
O
627
O
626
PR
625
D
624
TE
623
EC
622
R
621
R
620
O
619
C
618
derived from the changes affecting the territory, the banks and urban development in Rome. However, the most important change was the rise of the banks
in 1870, which practically reduced, or even stopped the series of floods.
Floodings mainly occur in winter (especially November–December). Strong
precipitation events reflect both the air–sea temperature contrast and the
occurrence of the Scirocco wind. The Tiber had two major periods of increased
overflowing frequency at the beginning of the Spörer Minimum and at the
onset of the Maunder Minimum, i.e. 1460–1500 and 1600–1660. The periods
1400–1460, 1500–1600 and 1660 onwards show a very low rate of flooding,
which was further reduced after the works in 1870.
Roman literature reports also on major or impressive events that happened
more or less in all regions of Italy (and some in Europe too). Part of
this information is related to wars or other political or social events, which
may affect the objective description. The abundance of the data decreases in
the Medieval period, when the social conditions were very bad. Starting with
1000, the improvement in the social conditions were reflected in a second
flourishing of the culture, which culminated in 1400–1500. However, during
the 1100–1200 period, a number of cities started to fight against the Emperor
and other authorities (especially in the north of Italy). With independence,
people started to document extreme events, natural hazards, yields, etc. described
in annals and chronicles. In 1300, Florence had free schools and all citizens
were able to write and read. The 1400–1500 period, flourishing in 1500 with
Leonardo da Vinci, Galileo and others, is rich in literary and historical culture
and is the background for science as well. Thus, Italian archives, libraries and
museums provide a great number of written historical sources on different
aspects of past climate reaching back more than 1000 years (e.g. Camuffo, 1987).
Over the centuries, many subjective reports on extremely cold winters can be
found. Fortunately, this abundant information can objectively be evaluated per
classes of severity. A ‘‘great winter’’ was defined when the cold was particularly
severe over a large area causing well-documented exceptional events, e.g. large
water bodies were frozen, with ice sustaining people and chariots, wine was
frozen in butts, death of people, trees and animals. The term ‘‘severe winter’’ was
used when people, trees and animals were killed, and only minor rivers were
frozen over. ‘‘Mild winters’’ when ice was missing and plants had early growing and flowering. In northern Italy, the freezing of the Venice Lagoon and
its deeper canals was a very useful reference to quantitatively establish the degree
of severity over the centuries. This information was based on a large number of
citations, pictorial and literary representations (Camuffo, 1987, 1993; Camuffo
and Enzi, 1992, 1994a,b, 1995a,c; Enzi and Camuffo, 1995a; Camuffo and
Sturaro, 2003; Fig. 9). Freezing was particularly frequent in the 1400–1600 period
and then 1700–1850. The coldest winter in the series was 1708–09 (most probably
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657
658
659
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661
662
663
664
665
666
667
F
668
O
669
O
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671
PR
672
673
674
Figure 9: 1,000 year chronology of the Venice Lagoon freezing (Camuffo, 1997).
682
683
684
685
686
687
688
689
690
691
692
693
694
695
696
697
TE
EC
R
681
R
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O
679
C
678
the coldest winter in Europe for at least half a millennium, Luterbacher et al.,
2004). Other very cold winters were experienced in 1928–29 and 1788–89
(Camuffo, 1987).
Past flooding in Venice is another important factor to understand regional
climate variability. These ‘‘High Water’’ (Camuffo, 1993; Enzi and Camuffo,
1995; Camuffo et al., 2005) occur when the sea level rises more than 110 cm
above the mean level (with respect to the yearly average level observed in 1897).
They caused enormous problems to the city. For this reason, High Waters
were reported in public and private documents (regular instrumental records,
i.e. tide gauge, began in 1872). The problem nowadays is dramatically relevant
because of the damage to historical buildings and monuments. Flooding surges
are due to a cyclonic circulation moving over western Mediterranean: the
Scirocco wind is strong and drags water to Venice; the corresponding pattern of
atmospheric pressure over the Mediterranean further displaces water towards
Venice. The sea level rise is increased or decreased by further factors such
as luni-solar forces, free oscillations (seiches) in the Adriatic basin, and an
additional sea level rise due to global warming. In the past, deep cyclonic
circulations generating High Waters in Venice were particularly frequent in the
first decades of 1500 and at the turn of the eighteenth century. Nowadays, the
surge frequency has increased exponentially due to the combined effect of soil
subsidence and sea level rise. The relative sea level change in Venice is a vital
problem for the city, which has raised 61 11 cm over the last few centuries.
N
677
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675
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721
722
723
724
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728
729
730
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
738
F
710
O
709
O
708
PR
707
D
706
TE
705
EC
704
R
703
R
702
O
701
C
700
The brown belt of the algae which live in the tidal range and the upper front is
a good indicator for the average high tide level. This indicator was accurately
drawn by Antonio Canaletto (1697–1768) and Bernardo Bellotto (1722–1780) in
their ‘‘photographic’’ paintings (Camuffo et al., 2005).
In northern Italy, the long series of locust invasions constitutes an index of
the frequency of easterly circulation in the summertime, which transported
swarms originated in the Pannonian plain (Hungary) (Camuffo and Enzi,
1991). Locusts from Anatolia or the Near East infested the Pannonian plain.
In the summertime, eastern winds of Bora type, transported the swarms
westwards, i.e. from Hungary to northern Italy. Annals and chronicles report
the list of the damaged areas, often followed by famine and epidemics, and
it is often possible to follow the path and spread of swarms. Locust invasions
(and cold summer inflows) were more frequent in the mid-fourteenth century,
during the Spörer Minimum (1460–1500), with a major peak in the early sixteenth
century, and at the very beginning of the Maunder Minimum (1645). Invasions
were terminated when the Pannonian plain was densely cultivated and the
locust eggs were destroyed. In Sicily and the western coast of Italy, locust
invasions were mainly related to southerly winds (mainly Scirocco) that
transported swarms from northern Africa, e.g. in 1566/1572. In southern Italy,
parts of the semi-arid territory was left uncultivated and used for grazing sheep,
so that it was naturally infested with locusts. The severity of the plague was
determined not only due to climatic factors, but also by the effectiveness of the
methods used to fight them. Intensive land cultivation was the most effective
system that terminated this plague in the first part of the nineteenth century.
Piervitali and Colacino (2001) analysed drought events that occurred in
western Sicily during the period 1565–1915 using information on religious
processions performed in the small town of Erice (Italy). Together with other
documents and manuscripts found in the city library, a drought chronology
was reconstructed.
Diodato (2006) used a variety of different written records of weather
conditions that affect agriculture and living conditions as a proxy for instrumental annual precipitation for the Palermo (southern Italy) region 1580–2004.
Data were compiled from various kinds of documents, including chronicles,
annals, archival records and instrumental data (from 1807 onwards).
Diodato (2006) found a wet period between 1677–1700 that seem to be
in agreement with findings from Greece (Xoplaki et al., 2001) and Spain
(Barriendos, 1997). A wetter phase has been found between 1769 and 1922
followed by a general decrease until the end of the twentieth century.
Intense natural pollution in Italy occurred in the past due to the intense
volcanic activity, which has diminished in recent times. Between 1500 and 1900,
the Mediterranean volcanoes Etna, Vesuvius, Vulcano and Stromboli were
N
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753
754
755
756
757
758
759
760
761
762
763
764
765
766
767
768
769
770
771
772
773
774
F
751
O
750
O
749
PR
748
D
747
TE
746
EC
745
R
744
R
743
O
742
C
741
particularly active and caused the so-called dry fogs (Camuffo and Enzi, 1994,
1995a). Acid volcanic fogs consist of a more or less dense mist composed of gasses
and aerosols with reddish colour and foul smelling. This mist is dry. The most
dramatic episode occurred in 1783, due to Icelandic volcanic activity at Laki,
which affected most of the NH (Franklin, 1784). In Italy, this phenomenon
appeared most frequently from spring to early summer when the volcanic
emissions were less easily dispersed in the atmosphere. Two main factors are
prominent: the Mediterranean Sea was relatively cold giving rise to very stable
atmospheric conditions and low dispersion potential. Further, the Azores
anticyclone extended over the Mediterranean, which reduced winds. Under
such conditions the volcanic emissions, especially those emitted at low levels,
remained entrapped in the stable boundary layer, which were then transported
towards the land by a gentle breeze. The dry fogs persisted for days or weeks.
From the analysis of these pollution episodes, which have occurred in the Po
Valley over the last millennium, it is difficult to identify the individual volcano
that has determined the occurrence of each dry fog event. Volcanic clouds crossed
Italy from south to north, destroying from one-third to one-half of the maize
or wheat yield. It would seem much more reasonable to note that the phenomenon became frequent only after Stromboli became active once again. In
agricultural meteorology of the 1800s, the phenomenon was so relevant that
sources distinguished between the caustic dry fogs that damaged the vegetation
and damp fogs, with positive effect because they act as a nutrient. From 1300
to 1900, some 50 anomalous fog events have been noted, 30 of those were
certainly corrosive, i.e. of volcanic nature. The frequency of these events
culminated between the middle of the 1700s and the middle of the 1800s.
Summarized, the documentation of past climate and extremes in Italy based
on documentary evidence is widespread and reliable. The South had different
political vicissitudes, but in any case it had a very flourishing culture (e.g. Sicily,
Apulia, Naples), with a similar amount of climate and weather descriptions.
A number of people wrote diaries, logs, reports etc. so that the documentation
becomes abundant and sometimes even quantitative. There is still much potential
in Italy to collect, read and digitize these climate-related information as the
State Archives of Italy, for instance have shelves extending 12,000 km, the State
Archive in Venice has 17 km shelves (public and private libraries, monasteries,
private collections etc. handwritten and printed documents of any type not
included).
N
740
U
739
51
775
776
777
778
779
Southern Balkans, Greece and Eastern Mediterranean
The Balkan Peninsula (Greece, former Yugoslavian countries, Albania, Bulgaria
and Romania) provides rich archives of documentary data. Repapis et al. (1989)
investigated the frequency of occurrence of severe Greek winters based on
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783
784
785
786
787
788
789
790
791
792
793
F
782
evidence from monastery and historical records during the 1200–1900 period.
They found evidence, that the coldest periods occurred in the first half of the
fifteenth century, in the second half of the seventeenth century and in the
nineteenth century. Grove and Conterio (1994, 1995), Grove (2001) and Xoplaki
et al. (2001) reported on the variability of climate and extremes (severe winters,
droughts and wet periods) during parts of LIA and its impact on human life
using different kind of written sources. Figure 10 presents the estimated winter
temperature and precipitation conditions for Greece during the LMM 1675–1715
period based on documentary proxy evidence (Xoplaki et al., 2001). Xoplaki
et al. (2001) found, that during these periods more extreme conditions were
apparent compared to the late twentieth century. Xoplaki et al. (2001) extended
the analysis for the 1780–1830 period. Documentary information on ‘‘Medieval
Warm Period (MWP)’’ and the beginning of LIA in eastern Mediterranean
is provided by Telelis (2000, 2004).
O
781
O
780
794
PR
795
796
797
D
798
TE
799
800
EC
801
802
R
803
804
R
805
O
806
C
807
810
811
U
809
N
808
812
813
814
815
816
817
818
819
820
Figure 10: Top: Averaged winter temperature and Bottom: Precipitation
conditions for Greece estimated from documentary proxy evidence during the
LMM (Xoplaki et al., 2001). Values of plus (minus) 3 indicate exceptionally warm
(cold) in case of temperature and wet (dry) for precipitation. An index of 0 for a
particular winter means normal conditions compared with the 1901–1960 average.
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823
824
825
826
827
828
829
830
831
832
833
Compared to the wealth of data found in central and western Europe the data
density for the southern Balkans, Greece and eastern Mediterranean for the last
few centuries is rather low. This may be attributed to the Turkish occupation,
which lasted from the fifteenth to the nineteenth century (Xoplaki et al., 2001).
However, it is believed that a number of important monastery memoirs covering
the last at least half a millennium show evidence of past weather and climate and
optical phenomena from important tropical volcanic eruptions (C. Zerefos,
personal communication). It is assumed, that there are detailed documentary
data available from the Turkish archives that could be explored and used for
climatic reconstructions. Further, it is also believed that early instrumental
data from Cyprus, Syria and Greece starting in the eighteenth century and
from Egypt and Malta from the early nineteenth century can be obtained from
different sources.
F
822
O
821
834
843
844
845
846
847
848
849
850
851
852
853
854
855
856
857
858
859
860
861
O
PR
D
TE
842
EC
841
R
840
R
839
O
838
C
837
Northern Africa
There is only very limited climate information available so far from northern
African countries based on documentary evidence. A notable exception is the
record of the flood levels of the Nile river, which was analysed by hydrologists,
climatologists and historians. There are a number of studies dealing with the
reconstruction and analysis of the data from written records (Fraedrich and
Bantzer, 1991 and references therein; De Putter et al., 1998; Eltahir and Wang,
1999; Kondrashov et al., 2005). Pharaonic and medieval Egypt depended
solely on winter agriculture and hence on the summer floods. The rise of the
waters of the Nile was measured therefore regularly from the earliest times
(e.g. Eltahir and Wang, 1999; Kondrashov et al., 2005 and references therein).
Several authors compiled the annual maxima and minima of the water level
recorded at nilometers (generally an instrument that measures the height of
the Nile waters during its periodical flood) in the Cairo area, in particular at
Rodah Island, from 622 to 1922. There is evidence of low Nile floods occurring
in the periods 1470–1500, 1640–1720 and a number of low floods from 1774 to
1792 (Fraedrich and Bantzer, 1991).
N
836
U
835
53
Ship Logbooks as a New Documentary Proxy for Past Mediterranean Climate
Weather observations have been made on-board sailing ships as part of a daily
routine since the mid-seventeenth century. Procedures for marine observations
were not, however, formalized until the International Maritime Conference of
1853 (Maury, 1854). The lack of consistency of the records before this date
might help to account for the reluctance of climatologists to exploit the earlier
records in any comprehensive fashion. Recent studies of ships’ logbooks for the
period 1750–1850 undertaken as part of the CLIWOC project (Climatological
Database for the World’s Oceans, CLIWOC Team, 2003; Gallego et al., 2005;
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867
868
869
870
871
872
873
874
875
876
877
878
879
F
865
O
864
Garcı́a-Herrera et al., 2005a,b; Jones and Salmon, 2005; Wheeler, 2005;
www.ucm.es/info/cliwoc) and for the period 1680–1700 (Wheeler and Suárez
Domı́nguez, 2006) have, however, demonstrated the value of such material as
a source of reliable climatic data and information. Studies have also confirmed
the availability of a large number of such logbooks for the Mediterranean.
After 1850 most ships provided instrumental data, but such provision is
exceptional for the years before the mid-nineteenth century. The climatic
information contained in these early logbooks falls under three headings: those
of wind force, wind direction and general accounts of the weather. The layout
of logbooks varied slightly within and between nations but they all contain
much the same information, and the presentation exemplified in Fig. 11 is typical.
Wind direction and force were recorded at noon each day, these observations
often being supplemented by additional records at other hours providing
an unrivalled picture of short-term variation. Observations were also included
on such things as the state of the sea, cloudiness, visibility and the incidence
of particular phenomena such as rain, snow, thunder and fog. Although based
on visual observations and individual judgment, these estimates were made by
experienced officers whose abilities would differ little from those of today’s deck
O
863
PR
862
D
880
TE
881
882
EC
883
884
R
885
886
R
887
O
888
C
889
892
893
U
891
N
890
894
895
896
897
898
899
900
901
902
Figure 11: An example of a Spanish logbook page from 1797 (Courtesy of the
Archivo del Museo Naval (Archive of the Naval Museum), Madrid, Spain).
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912
913
914
915
916
917
918
919
920
921
922
923
924
925
926
F
910
O
909
O
908
PR
907
D
906
TE
905
officers, many of whom continue to make similar records in the logbooks of
merchant and military vessels many of which are used by the forecasting services.
Each of the early records is presented in narrative, non-numerical form. In
that sense they differ from the instrumental data gathered in such sources as
ICOADS (International Comprehensive Ocean and Atmospheric Data Set,
Worley et al., 2005) although they do occasionally provide temperature and
barometric data, some from as early as the late eighteenth century. These
narrative data, written in the language and vocabulary of the age (and nation),
need to be transformed into present-day terms (and English) before they can
be subjected to scientific analysis. The CLIWOC project has established procedures and methods whereby these transformations can be made. The project
has also assessed the intrinsic reliability of the original observations (Wheeler,
2005). These activities have permitted the construction of a database (Können
and Koek, 2005) containing quality-controlled data for the equivalent of
280,000 days of observations. Figure 12 shows the geographic range and
coverage of these CLIWOC data.
To date, logbook-based studies of the Mediterranean climate have been limited
to the geographically peripheral area of the Strait of Gibraltar, and to particular
historical events (Wheeler, 1987, 2001). Nevertheless such undertakings have
amply demonstrated the advantages of using these data to reproduce daily and
seasonal synoptic patterns. These exercises have also demonstrated that such
sea-based data can be profitably articulated with those from land stations and
do not stand apart as a data set. The CLIWOC project was focused on major
oceanic regions and excluded all enclosed seas such as the Mediterranean.
EC
904
R
903
927
R
928
O
929
C
930
934
U
933
N
931
932
935
936
937
938
939
940
941
942
943
55
Figure 12: CLIWOC version 1.5 data coverage. Each dot represents a daily
observation.
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951
952
953
954
955
956
957
958
959
960
961
962
963
964
965
F
950
O
949
O
948
PR
947
D
946
There is, however, no shortage of logbooks for the region. Remarkably, the
majority of these are found not in the archives of Mediterranean states but in the
United Kingdom. British political strategy has been based on sea power from
the seventeenth century and as long ago as 1680 British warships and fleets
were active in the area. With the establishment of bases, particularly in Gibraltar
and, though more temporarily, Port Mahon, British interest in the western
Mediterranean was to persist, unbroken, for three centuries. It has been estimated
(D. Wheeler, personal communication) that for the Mediterranean there are
the equivalent of over 1,000,000 days of data to be extracted from British
logbooks of which 4,000–5,000 are estimated to exist in UK archives (principally
in The National Archives in Kew, South West London) over the period from
1680 to 1850. From 1700 onwards the record is probably unbroken, with at least
one fleet or squadron active somewhere in the Mediterranean at any given time.
The number of logbooks varies according to the political climate (war time
yields far more records than periods of peace) and Fig. 13 summarizes their
decadal availability.
The geographic range of currently available observations is by no means
restricted to the British and allied ports. Vessels were based in Naples, Cyprus
and Alexandria at different times, and British naval policy required Royal
Navy ships to cruise extensively providing thereby something close to the observational network offered by today’s merchant services. Given that military
action was frequently necessary against the North African Barbarian States,
TE
945
EC
944
966
R
967
968
R
969
O
970
C
971
974
975
U
973
N
972
976
977
978
979
980
981
982
983
984
Figure 13: Decadal distribution of logbooks in British archives from the
Mediterranean region for the 1670–1840 period. The graph shows the number
of ships and logbooks estimated from 1670 to 1850.
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998
999
1000
1001
1002
1003
1004
1005
1006
1007
1008
1009
1010
1011
1012
1013
1014
1015
1016
1017
1018
1019
1020
1021
1022
1023
1024
1025
F
997
O
996
O
995
PR
994
D
993
TE
992
EC
991
R
990
R
989
O
988
C
987
there exists also the opportunity partly to fill the gap noted on a number of
occasions in this chapter that prevails over this most southerly sector of the
region. It is not known if further archival sources in such historic centres as
Venice, Istanbul or Alexandria might yield additional logbooks or similar
documents, although S. Enzi and D. Camuffo have confirmed the existence
of some logbooks in Italian archives. Further logbook collections are also
known to exist in French and Spanish Archives. The French logbooks cover
the period 1671–1850. Most of them were prepared during coastal voyages to
Spanish or Italian ports (Garnier, 2004). It is estimated that approximately
500 of such logbooks are preserved but have remained undigitized. A further
100 logbooks are preserved in Spain, corresponding mostly to coastal sailing by
ships of different Catalonian companies (R. Garcı́a-Herrera personal communication; Prohom and Barriendos, 2004).
To summarize, logbook data offer a number of significant benefits to the
climatologists: Firstly, the data are fixed by time and location, being recorded
each day at mid-day, with a further note that includes the ship’s latitude and
longitude. Secondly, the observations are homogenous in that they are recorded
using a widely adopted vocabulary and based on a set of common practices
that prevailed even during those years and decades before adoption of the
Beaufort system. Thirdly, the data should not be regarded as ‘‘proxy’’: they
constitute first-hand and direct observations on the weather at the time.
Fourthly, and very importantly, they are the only such source of information
for the oceanic and sea areas. This is of significance in the Mediterranean as
the region, where the sea represents a significant proportion of its surface area.
Fifthly, logbooks provide information that extends back to the late seventeenth
century and express therefore conditions at a critical time of climatic evolution
that includes the closing decades of the LMM. And, finally, these data are so
abundant, that there is a genuine possibility of providing a daily series from 1700
onwards, especially for the western Mediterranean area.
N
986
1.2.2. Evidence from Natural Proxies
U
985
57
In this section, we describe natural proxies that are used to reconstruct climate
conditions for sub-Mediterranean areas. They include high-resolution proxies
such as tree rings, speleothems and corals, but also lower resolution natural
proxies such as borehole data. In addition, we discuss new marine archives
(non-tropical coral, deep-sea corals) that show much potential for regional
climate reconstructions. Table 2 summarizes the climate evidence described in
detail in Section 1.2.2.
The first part deals with the climate evidence in the different areas of the
Mediterranean based on tree-ring data, followed by descriptions of speleothems
Tree rings
Tree rings
Tree rings
Tree rings
1653–1985
1000–2000
1700–2000
1000–1979
1100–1979
1429–2000
Adriatic
coast (Italy)
Mediterranean
Basin
Mediterranean
Basin
Morocco
Morocco
(regional)
Morocco
1600–1995
Tree rings
1500–present
Galicia (Spain)
Southern
Jordan
Tree rings
1000–present
Tree rings
Tree rings
Seasonal
Seasonal
Temporal
resolution
D
October–May
April–
September
Annual
October–
September
Winter
Annual
Winter
TE
Annual
EC
R
Tree rings
R
Tree rings
O
Spain
C
1500–present
Northern Spain
Archive
Time
Location
N
U
F
NAO,
precipitation
Precipitation,
drought
O
O
Precipitation
Precipitation
PR
Temperature,
precipitation
Temperature
Temperature,
precipitation
Temperature
Temperature,
precipitation
Temperature,
precipitation
Parameter
reconstructed
Glueck & Stockton
(2001)
Touchan et al. (1999)
Munaut (1982)
Till & Guiot (1990)
http://servpal.cerege.fr/
webdbdendro/
Briffa et al. (2001)
Creus-Novau et al.
(1997); Saz &
Creu-Novau (1999)
Creus-Novau et al.
(1995)
Galli et al. (1994)
Saz (2004)
Reference
Table 2: Compilation of temporally ‘‘high resolved’’ natural proxies from the Mediterranean (see Section 1.2.2 for
details)
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Catalonia (Spain)
40 N–43 N,
0 E–4 E
Southwestern
Turkey
The land area of
most Turkey and
adjoining region
Eastern
Mediterranean
Central Anatolia
Turkey, (Nar Gölü:
38 270 3000 E;
38 22’30’’N;
1363 masl)
Black Sea
(Turkey)
Southern
central Turkey
Sivas (Turkey)
Istanbul
(Turkey)
D
Annual
Proxy record
from 18O
analysis of a
varved lake
sediment
sequence
River
sediments
300–2001
Instantaneous
maximum
discharge
May–August
Tree rings
1400–2000
3000 BP
–present
Drought
Tree rings
TE
May–June
Tree rings
Annual
Annual
1339–1998
1776–1998
1251–1998
Tree rings
1628–1980
Annual
Annual
EC
R
Tree rings
1689–1994
R
Tree rings
1635–2000
O
Tree rings
C
N
U
1887–1995
F
Flood magnitude/
frequency/extremes
Summer
evaporation
(or drought)
O
O
Precipitation
PR
Precipitation Index
Positive correlation
between Jan–Feb and
Jul–Aug precipitation
and tree rings; positive
correlation between
Mar–Apr temp but
negative correlation
with May–Jul temp
Mar–Jun
precipitation
Apr–Aug
precipitation
Feb–Aug
precipitation
Precipitation
(Continued)
Benito et al. (2003)
Jones (2004);
Jones et al. (2004, 2005)
Touchan et al. (2005b)
Touchan et al. (2005a)
D’Arrigo & Cullen
(2001)
Touchan et al. (2003)
Akkemik & Aras (2005)
Akkemik et al. (2005)
Akkemik (2000)
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Intertidal area
in warmer
Mediterranean
waters
From 200 m
to 1200 water
depth in the
Mediterranean
Sea
Northernmost
Red Sea
Sardinia
(Italy)
Central Alps
R
R
O
1950–present Deep-Sea corals
Seasonal to
(Lophelia pertusa, annual
Madrepora oculata
and Desmophyllum
dianthus)
30–50 years
D
F
Sea-water
chemistry
Biological
productivity
O
O
SST, Sea level
PR
SST, hydrologic
balance
Bimonthly
TE
Precipitation
Temperature
Temperature
Parameter
reconstructed
Seasonal
to annual
EC
Annual
Annual
Speleothems
(growth rate)
C
Temporal
resolution
Archive
Speleothems/
18O
Speleothems/
18O, trace
elements
Annually banded
1750–1995
98 year at
reef corals,
2.9K year ago (oxygen isotopes,
44 year at
Sr/Ca)
122K year
ago
1400–present Vermetids
(Dendropoma
petraeum)
1650–1713
and
1798–1840
2000
BP–present
950–present
Italian Alps
N
U
Time
Location
Table 2: Continued.
Montagna (2004);
Montagna et al.
(2005a,b)
Silenzi et al. (2004)
Felis et al. (2000, 2004);
Rimbu et al. (2001,
2003a)
Antonioli et al. (2003);
Montagna (2004)
Mangini et al. (2005)
Frisia et al. (2003)
Reference
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1750–1980s/
1990s
1700–1997
Last 100
–300 years
CentralNorthern Italy
Evora
(Portugal)
Morocco
8 Boreholessubsurface
temperature
profiles
1 Boreholesubsurface
temperature
profile
1 Boreholesubsurface
temperature
profile
D
Temperature
change in the
last 100–300
years.
Secular
temperature
trends
TE
Glacial and
Holocene to
secular
temperature
trends
Secular
temperature
trends
Secular
temperature
trends
Monthly to
weekly
EC
R
R
O
C
N
U
From 0 to 40 m 1850–present Non-tropical
water depth in the
corals, (Cladocora
Mediterranean Sea
caespitosa)
Slovenia
1500–1980s/ 9 Boreholes1990s
subsurface
temperature
profiles
Slovenia30000 BP
BoreholesLjutomer
–1992
subsurface
temperature
profiles
F
O
O
PR
Ground surface
temperature
variations
(after inversion)
Ground surface
temperature
variations
(after inversion)
Ground surface
temperature
variations
(after inversion)
Ground surface
temperature
variations
(after inversion)
Ground surface
temperature
variations
(after inversion)
SST Sea-water
chemistry
Rimi (2000)
Correia & Safanda
(2001)
Pasquale et al.
(2000, 2005)
Rajver et al. (1998)
Rajver et al. (1998)
Silenzi et al. (2005)
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1027
1028
and corals and their distribution. The second part of this section provides an
overview on lower resolved natural new land and marine proxies (boreholes,
vermetids, non-tropical corals and deep sea corals).
1029
1030
1038
1039
1040
1041
1042
1043
1044
1045
1046
1047
1048
F
1037
O
1036
O
1035
PR
1034
D
1033
Tree-Ring Information from the Iberian Peninsula and Italy
Many past studies have described the use of tree-ring or dendroclimatic data to
reconstruct past variations in precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, streamflow, the frequency of extreme droughts and atmospheric circulation indices.
From dendroclimatic reconstructions over the Iberian Peninsula, several
periods of differentiated climatic conditions have been highlighted over the last
several hundred years (Creus-Novau et al., 1997; Saz and Creus-Novau, 1999;
Saz, 2004). Creus-Novau et al. (1992), Saz et al. (2003) and Saz (2004) used treering information to reconstruct temperature and precipitation in different points
of the northern half of Spain since the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries and over
entire Spain for the last millennium. Several periods of differentiated climatic
conditions have been highlighted over the last several hundred years (CreusNovau et al., 1997; Saz and Creus-Novau, 1999; Saz, 2004). Creus-Novau et al.
(1992), Saz et al. (2003) and Saz (2004) used tree-ring information to reconstruct
temperature and precipitation in different points of the northern half of
Spain since the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries and over entire Spain for
the last millennium. The results are shown in Fig. 14. They used a set of 42
dendrochronologies constructed from more than 1,500 samples of different trees
TE
1032
EC
1031
R
1049
1050
R
1051
O
1052
C
1053
1056
1057
U
1055
N
1054
1058
1059
1060
1061
1062
1063
1064
1065
1066
Figure 14: Annual mean temperature and total annual precipitation in
northeastern Spain during the 1500–1900 period. Grey curve: standardized
anomalies (reference period 1850–1900). The black curve is a 15-year running
average (Saz, 2004).
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1080
1081
1082
1083
1084
1085
1086
1087
1088
1089
1090
1091
1092
1093
1094
1095
1096
1097
1098
1099
F
1079
O
1078
O
1077
PR
1076
D
1075
TE
1074
EC
1073
R
1072
R
1071
O
1070
C
1069
and from different tree species. More than 90% of the cores were extracted
from coniferous trees. Climate reconstructions obtained from these chronologies
allow studying the evolution of spring, summer, fall and winter (and annual)
temperature and precipitation since the fifteenth century for nine different
stations of Spain located in different bioclimatic areas. During the first centuries
of the last millennium Iberian climate was characterized by high temperatures
and precipitation, as well as by a remarkable climatic regularity that lasted till
the mid-fourteenth century, when a shift in Iberian climate took place. This led
to increased climate variability with a remarkable reduction in temperatures
and an intensified occurrence of precipitation extremes. The LIA, which reached
its maximum during the seventeenth century and lasted up to the early decades
of the nineteenth century, was also manifested over the Iberian Peninsula as
a period of cold conditions and increased climate variability, supported by
lagoon and coastal sedimentary records (Luque and Juliá, 2002; Desprat et al.,
2003). These cold phases coincide with similar periods described in western
and central Europe. As for rainfall, the most important dry anomalies appear
in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, a period with high interannual temperature and precipitation variability. Creus-Novau et al. (1995) used tree-ring
information to reconstruct the climatic conditions in Galicia (northwestern
Spain) for the last centuries.
Galli et al. (1994) used Pinus pinea L. from Ravenna pine forest to check the
possibility of reconstructing winter temperatures for the 1653–1985 period for
an area close to the Adriatic coast, Italy. Briffa et al. (2001) used a large number
of tree-ring data from southern Europe (Spain, Italy, southern Balkans, Greece)
in order to reconstruct mean averaged central and southern European growing
season (April–September) temperature series back to the early seventeenth
century.
Recently, Budillon et al. (2005), found both hyperpycnal flows from
flood-prone stream and tempestites appearing as sand layers in the stratigraphic
record of shelf areas are proxies for past storminess. The case study of the
Salerno Bay shelf record from Central Italy revealed at least four events related
to major storms that occurred in the area during the last 1,000 years (1954, 1879,
1544 and an older unknown event).
N
1068
U
1067
63
1100
1101
1102
1103
1104
1105
1106
1107
Tree-Ring Information from South Eastern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean
Dendroclimatology in the eastern Mediterranean region is still in the early
stages of development. Most studies are recent with the exception of a few
earlier works. Gassner and Christiansen-Weniger (1942) demonstrated that
tree growth is significantly influenced by precipitation in parts of Turkey.
B. Bannister, from the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at The University
of Arizona, was the first dendrochronologist to attempt systematic tree-ring
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1121
1122
1123
1124
1125
1126
1127
1128
1129
1130
1131
1132
1133
1134
1135
1136
1137
1138
1139
1140
1141
1142
1143
1144
1145
1146
1147
1148
F
1120
O
1119
O
1118
PR
1117
D
1116
TE
1115
EC
1114
R
1113
R
1112
O
1111
C
1110
dating of Near Eastern archaeological sites (Bannister, 1970). He collected and
analysed tree-ring specimens from a 800 BC tomb in Turkey and carried out
preliminary examinations of wood samples from Egyptian coffins. He also
collected and cross-dated samples of Cedar of Lebanon (Cedrus libani) in
Lebanon. Several dendrochronological studies have followed the work of
Gassner and Christiansen-Weniger (1942) and Bannister (1970). For example,
a large number of tree-ring chronologies, mainly in Greece and Turkey, for
dating archaeological sites are produced by Kuniholm and Striker (1987) and
Kuniholm (1990, 1994). During the past six years, dendroclimatology has
begun to establish itself in the region through multi-national scientific projects
that are interested in understanding climate variability over several centuries.
The first dendroclimatic reconstruction (a 396-year-long reconstruction of
October–May precipitation based on two chronologies of Juniperus phoenicia)
in the Near East was developed by Touchan and Hughes (1999) and Touchan
et al. (1999) in southern Jordan. They showed that the longest reconstructed
drought, as defined by consecutive years below a threshold of 80% of the
1946–1995 mean observed October–May precipitation, lasted four years.
More recently in Turkey, Akkemik (2000) investigated the response of a
Pinus pinea tree-ring chronology from the Istanbul region to temperature and
precipitation. Hughes et al. (2001) demonstrated that the cross-dating in
archaeological specimens over large distances in Greece and Turkey has a clear
climatological basis, with signature years consistently being associated with
specific, persistent atmospheric circulation anomalies. D’Arrigo and Cullen
(2001) presented the first 350-year (1628–1980) dendroclimatic reconstruction
of February–August precipitation for central Turkey (Sivas), although it relied
on Peter Kuniholm’s materials that end in 1980. Touchan et al. (2003) used
tree-ring data from living trees in southwestern Turkey to reconstruct spring
(May–June) precipitation several centuries back in time (Fig. 15).
Their reconstructions show clear evidence of multi-year to decadal variations
in spring precipitation. The longest period of spring drought was only four
years (1476–1479). The longest reconstructed wet periods were found during
the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. They also found that spring drought
(wetness) is connected with warm (cool) conditions and southwesterly (continental) circulation over the eastern Mediterranean. A subsequent reconstruction
was developed by Akkemik et al. (2005) for a March–June precipitation season
from oak trees in the western Black Sea region of Turkey. They found that during
the past four centuries drought events in this region persisted for no more than
two years. Akkemik and Aras (2005) reconstructed April–August precipitation
(1689–1994) for the southern part of central Turkey region by using Pinus nigra
tree rings. These various tree-ring studies in Turkey suggest that the duration
of dry years generally extends for one or two years and rarely for more than
N
1109
U
1108
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65
1149
1150
1151
1152
1153
1154
1155
1156
1162
1163
1164
F
1161
O
1160
O
1159
PR
1158
May–June precipitation (mm)
1157
1165
1166
1171
1172
1173
1174
1175
D
TE
EC
1170
R
1169
Figure 15: Time series plot of reconstructed May–June precipitation,
1339–1998. Horizontal solid line is the mean of the observed data. Horizontal
dashed line is the arbitrary threshold of 120% of the 1931–1998 mean May–June
precipitation (80.33 mm). Horizontal dotted line is the arbitrary threshold of
80% of the 1931–1998 mean May–June precipitation (53.55 mm). The
instrumental record is in grey. Touchan et al. (2003) Preliminary reconstructions
of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width. Int. J.
Climatol., 23, 157 Copyright (2005) the Royal Meteorological Society, first
published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
R
1168
O
1167
C
1176
1177
1180
1181
1182
1183
1184
1185
1186
1187
1188
1189
N
1179
three years. In accordance with other studies, the years 1693, 1725, 1819, 1868,
1878, 1887 and 1893, which were below two standard deviations from the
twentieth century long-term mean, were determined as the driest years in the
eastern Mediterranean basin (Akkemik and Aras, 2005).
Touchan et al. (2005a) were the first to develop a standardized precipitation index (drought index) reconstruction from tree rings. Their study provided
important regional information concerning hydroclimatic variability in the
southwestern and south-central Turkey. Touchan et al. (2005b) continued
their investigations of the relationships between large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional reconstructed May–August precipitation for the eastern
Mediterranean region (Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus and Greece). As part
of this study, they conducted the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic
U
1178
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1196
1197
1198
1199
1200
1201
1202
1203
1204
1205
1206
1207
1208
1209
1210
F
1195
O
1194
O
1193
PR
1192
sampling for this region from different species. They developed six May–August
reconstructions ranging in lengths from 115 to 600 years. The study found no
long-term precipitation trends during the last few centuries. They also identified
large-scale atmospheric circulation influences on regional May–August precipitation. For example, this precipitation season is driven by anomalous below
(above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence)
and small pressure gradients at sea level.
A pioneering comparison of their tree-ring data and independent (i.e. sharing
no common predictors in the reconstruction procedure) reconstructions of
large-scale sea level pressure (SLP; Luterbacher et al., 2002b) and surface air
temperature (SAT; Luterbacher et al., 2004) showed that large-scale climatic
patterns associated with precipitation and tree-ring growth in this region have
been substantially stable for the last 237 years.
D’Arrigo and Cullen (2001), Akkemik et al. (2005) and Touchan et al.
(2005a,b) have begun new investigations linking the dendroclimatic reconstructions to other proxy records, specifically to documentary evidence. These new
studies provide examples of how historians and archaeologists can use dendroclimatic reconstructions to study and interpret the interactions between past
human behaviour and the environment. For example, all four studies identified
the year 1660 as dry summer while Purgstall (1983) reported that catastrophic
fires and famine in Anatolia occurred in the same year.
D
1191
TE
1190
1216
1217
R
1215
R
1214
Tree-ring Information from Northern Africa
Morocco has an interesting advantage in North Africa as the westerlies bring
humid air towards the Rif and Atlas mountains, making possible the growth
of millennium cedars on these mountains. Munaut (1982) sampled about
50 cedar sites (Cedrus atlantica), which are a source of important climatic
information for that country (Till and Guiot, 1990). Figure 16 presents the
O
1213
C
1212
EC
1211
1220
1221
U
1219
N
1218
1222
1223
1224
1225
1226
1227
1228
1229
1230
Year
Figure 16: Reconstruction of annual (October–September) precipitation
(averaged over Morocco) by Till and Guiot (1990) from 46 cedar tree-ring
series. The precipitation anomalies are expressed in departures from the
period 1925–1970 in mm/year. In grey are the uncertainties for each year.
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1237
1238
1239
1240
1241
1242
1243
1244
1245
1246
1247
1248
1249
1250
1251
F
1236
O
1235
O
1234
PR
1233
annual precipitation for Morocco over the last around 1,000 years. It appears
that the twentieth century was among the wettest of the last millennium. In
comparison, the 1600–1900 period was 84 mm drier than the reference period
(1925–1975), i.e. a deficit of about 11%.
Meko (1985) and Chbouki et al. (1995) discussed temporal and spatial
variation of Moroccan drought (based on tree-ring information). Till and
Guiot (1990) published a 900-year reconstruction of October–September precipitation for three different areas in Morocco, indicating a continuous tendency
towards a wetter climate during the twentieth century, and drier conditions
than present during the sixteenth, seventeenth and eighteenth century. SerreBachet et al. (1992) pointed out the fact that the spatial variability of
precipitation is difficult to be interpreted as some tree species used for
reconstruction are related to winter conditions and others refer to the summer
period. Nevertheless they showed that the dry climate periods reconstructed
for Morocco and also for Spain reflect a climate out of phase with the rest
of Europe, likely under a stronger effect of winter NAO than in eastern
Mediterranean regions. Glueck and Stockton (2001) used climate-sensitive
Moroccan tree-ring data (and ice-core data from Greenland) to reconstruct the
winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) back to 1429. It is, however
difficult to find a correlation between their NAOI and the precipitation series
presented in Fig. 16 (Till and Guiot, 1990).
D
1232
TE
1231
1258
1259
1260
1261
1262
1263
1264
1265
1266
1267
1268
1269
1270
1271
R
R
O
1257
C
1256
N
1255
Speleothems
Speleothems are secondary cave deposits, such as stalactites and stalagmites,
formed when calcium carbonate (usually calcite) precipitates from degassing
solutions seeping into limestone caves. Usually, most studies use stalagmites
due to their simple geometry and rapid growth rate, which typically vary between
approximately 0.05 and 0.4 mm/year. Provided that annual bands are present
and well preserved, the combination of annual band counts and Uranium-series
dating results in absolute chronologies with relatively small age uncertainties
(Fleitmann et al., 2004). In addition, the thickness of annual bands can be used
to reconstruct either temperature (Frisia et al., 2003) or amount of precipitation
(e.g. Fleitmann et al., 2004), depending on the environmental settings in and
above the cave. For instance, in regions with a predominantly arid to semi-arid
climate, the thickness of annual bands is primarily controlled by the availability
of water (Fleitmann et al., 2003). Oxygen (18O) and carbon (13C) isotopic
ratios are currently the most frequently used stalagmite-based climate proxies.
Both are capable to provide information on temperature and/or hydrological
balance (Schwarcz, 1986; Baker et al., 1997; Bar-Matthews et al., 1997, 2000;
Bar-Matthews and Ayalon, 2004; Ayalon et al., 1999; Desmarchelier et al., 2000;
McDermott et al., 2001; Bard et al., 2002; Burns et al., 2002; Spötl and Mangini,
U
1254
EC
1252
1253
67
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1285
1286
1287
1288
1289
1290
1291
1292
1293
1294
1295
1296
1297
1298
1299
1300
1301
1302
1303
1304
1305
1306
1307
1308
1309
1310
1311
1312
F
1284
O
1283
O
1282
PR
1281
D
1280
TE
1279
EC
1278
R
1277
R
1276
O
1275
C
1274
2002; Frisia et al., 2003, 2005; Kolodny et al., 2003; Fleitmann et al., 2004;
Mangini et al., 2005). The use of 13C as climate proxy, however, has remained
somewhat limited as it can be influenced by many, sometimes counteracting,
parameters, which do not always relate to climate (Baker et al., 1997). Using
conventional sampling techniques (e.g. a dental drill) temporal resolution of
isotopic time-series typically ranges from 1 to 20 years. More recently, newly
developed analytical techniques laser ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) allow the measurement of climate-sensitive trace elements
(Mg, P, U, Sr, Ba and Na) at much higher (weekly to monthly) resolution
(Baldini et al., 2002; Treble et al., 2003, 2005; Montagna, 2004). To date,
few studies have focused on the reconstruction of continental climate variability
during the past 500–1,000 years using speleothems, mainly due to the difficulty
in devising high-resolution sampling strategies. The work of Frisia et al. (2003)
reports on annual growth rates within single annual laminae in three contemporaneously deposited Holocene speleothems from Grotta di Ernesto (Alpine cave
in northern Italy), which respond to changes in surface temperature rather
than precipitation. Based on monitoring of present-day calcite growth, and
correlation with instrumental data for surface climatic conditions, the authors
interpreted a higher ratio of dark- to light-coloured calcite and the simultaneous
thinning of annual laminae as indicative of colder-than-present winters. Such
dark and thin laminae occur in those parts of the three stalagmites deposited
from 1650 to 1713 and from 1798 to 1840, as reconstructed through lamina
counts. An 11-year cyclicity in growth rate, coupled with reduced calcite
deposition during historic minima of solar activity, suggests a solar influence
on lamina thickness and temperature, respectively. Spectral analysis of the
lamina thickness data also suggests that the NAO variability influenced winter
temperatures. More recently, Antonioli et al. (2003) and Montagna (2004)
examined a stalagmite collected from the Grotta Verde, located on Capo Caccia
promontory on the northwest coast of Sardinia (Central Mediterranean Sea).
The oxygen isotopic record by Antonioli et al. (2003) covers the last 1,000 years
and reveals a centennial-scale variability with a resolution of 20 years. Their
climate reconstruction clearly demonstrates the presence of a warm/wet
‘‘Medieval Warm Period’’, a cold/dry LIA and a warming trend since 1700.
This rise in temperature ended around the years 1930–1940, and was followed
by a relatively cold/dry period between the years 1940 and 1995. Based on these
data, Montagna (2004) obtained a millennial-scale seasonally resolved record
of precipitation variability from Sardinia. The 18O values show significant
changes in precipitation during the last millennium, comparable with the lowfrequency signals observed in a long European tree-ring chronology (Esper et al.,
2002). The speleothem 18O record between 1600 and 1800 indicates relatively
N
1273
U
1272
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1313
1314
1315
1316
1317
1318
1319
1320
1321
1322
69
dry and cold conditions corresponding to the LIA, followed by a gradual warmer
and wetter trend, culminating in 1975. Moreover, alternating warm/wet and
cold/dry conditions mark the period between 1000 and 1600. Very recently,
Mangini et al. (2005) reconstructed the air temperature variation during the
past two millennia using the 18O composition of a precisely dated stalagmite
from the central Alps. Mangini and co-authors showed that the temperature
maxima during the Medieval Warm Period (800–1300) were on average 1.7 C
higher than the minima during the LIA. In addition, the Alpine stalagmite
reveals a highly significant correlation with 14C, suggesting the importance
of the solar forcing in the NH during the past two millennia.
1323
1333
1334
1335
1336
1337
1338
1339
1340
1341
1342
1343
1344
1345
1346
1347
1348
1349
1350
1351
1352
1353
F
O
O
PR
D
1332
TE
1331
EC
1330
R
1329
R
1328
O
1327
C
1326
Corals
Apart from tree-ring information, it was shown that annually banded reef
corals from the northernmost Red Sea (28 N–29.5 N) provide proxy records of
temperature seasonality and interannual to multidecadal variations in temperature/aridity for the southeastern Mediterranean region (Egypt, Israel, Palestine,
Jordan) during the past centuries, the Holocene epoch and the last interglacial
period (Felis et al., 2000, 2004; Rimbu et al., 2001, 2003a). Isotopic and elemental tracers, incorporated into the carbonate skeletons of these massive
corals during growth, provide proxies of past environmental variability of the
surface ocean, reflecting variations in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and
hydrologic balance (e.g. Felis and Pätzold, 2004). In the first step, an oxygen
isotope record covering the past 250 years derived from a living coral (Fig. 17)
was compared to instrumental records of gridded SST and land station
precipitation from the region (Felis et al., 2000). However, the coral record
was not calibrated against a single parameter to provide a quantitative
reconstruction because both, the temperature and the hydrologic balance at the
sea surface, influence coral oxygen isotopes. In the second step, the coral oxygen
isotope record was compared with indices of the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/NAO
(Rimbu et al., 2001). In a third step, the coral record was compared to fields
of SST and surface wind in the eastern Mediterranean/Middle East region,
in order to reveal the physical mechanism for the linkage between the AO/NAO
and variations of SST and hydrologic balance in the northernmost Red Sea. This
combined analysis of the proxy record and instrumental climate data revealed
that the region’s interannual to decadal climate variability is controlled by a
high-pressure anomaly over the Mediterranean Sea that is associated with the
AO/NAO, especially during the winter season. This high-pressure anomaly
favours an anticyclonic flow of surface winds over the eastern Mediterranean,
thereby controlling the advection of relatively cold air from southeastern
Europe towards the northern Red Sea (Rimbu et al., 2001). Enhanced variance
N
1325
U
1324
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1354
1355
1356
1357
1358
1359
1360
1361
1362
1363
1364
1370
1371
1372
1373
1374
1375
O
O
PR
1369
D
1368
Figure 17: Coral oxygen isotope record (1750–2000) from Ras Umm Sidd
(northernmost Red Sea, 28 N) near the southern tip of the Sinai Peninsula
(Felis et al., 2000). It shows detrended and normalized mean annual time series,
based on bimonthly resolution data. On interannual to multidecadal timescales,
coral oxygen isotopes reflect variations in temperature/aridity. Pronounced cold/
arid conditions occur during the 1830s. Note that on interannual to decadal
timescales colder/more arid conditions in the northernmost Red Sea are
associated with increased precipitation along the southeastern margin of the
Mediterranean Sea and decreased precipitation in Turkey. The bold line
represents 3-year running average.
TE
1367
EC
1366
F
1365
1376
1377
1382
1383
1384
1385
1386
1387
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at interannual periods of 5–6 years was observed in all coral records from the
northernmost Red Sea, and was also detected in a tree-ring-based reconstruction
of Turkish precipitation covering the 1628–1980 period (D’Arrigo and Cullen,
2001). It was identified as a stable feature of eastern Mediterranean/Middle
East climate, and it was shown to be characteristic for the influence of the
AO/NAO on the region’s climate variability over longer periods (Felis
et al., 2000, 2004). Further prominent oscillations identified in the coral-based
climate reconstruction of the past 250 years from the northernmost Red Sea
have periods of about 70, 22–23 and 8–9 years (Felis et al., 2000). The latter
two periods were also identified in the tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction from Turkey (D’Arrigo and Cullen, 2001).
To summarize, annually banded reef corals from the northernmost Red Sea
provide a seasonally resolved archive for temperature and aridity variations
in the southeastern Mediterranean (Egypt, Israel, Palestine, Jordan) and the
influence of the AO/NAO on the region’s interannual climate variability during
the past centuries, the Holocene epoch and the last interglacial period (Felis et al.,
2000, 2004; Rimbu et al., 2001, 2003a).
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Evidence from Lower Resolution Natural Proxies and New Marine Archives
This part provides a short overview on natural land and marine proxies including
boreholes, vermetids, non-tropical corals and deep sea corals.
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Subsurface temperature information in the Mediterranean from borehole data
Temperature-depth profiles measured in boreholes contain a record of temperature changes at the Earth’s surface. The geothermal method of past climate
reconstruction based on the information recorded in temperature logs has
become well established within the last decade (Lachenbruch and Marshal, 1986;
Shen and Beck, 1991; Beltrami and Mareschal, 1995; Huang et al., 2000; Harris
and Chapman, 2001; Beltrami and Bourlon, 2004; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004).
The basic assumption of this method is that climate changes are accompanied
by long-term temperature changes of the Earth’s surface, which propagate
downwards by heat conduction and can be reconstructed as ground surface
temperature histories. In the absence of moving fluids, changes in ground
surface temperature (GST) diffuse slowly downwards and are manifested at
a later time as anomalies in the Earth’s background temperature regime. Because
the thermal diffusivity of rock is relatively low (106 m2 s1), the effect of
short-period variations like the annual changes of surface temperature will
be measurable at a depth of a few tens of metres (depending on the specific
thermal properties of the rock). Long-period events like the temperature
changes associated with post-glacial warming will still produce significant
signal amplitudes at much larger depths of around 1,000 m. However, each
method of paleoclimatic reconstruction has strengths and limitations, and the
reconstruction of past climatic changes from geothermal data is no exception to
this rule. A paleoclimatic reconstruction derived from borehole temperatures
is characterized by a decrease in resolution as a function of depth and time.
Typically, individual climatic events can be resolved from borehole temperatures
only if its duration was at least 60% of the time since its occurrence. i.e. an
event that occurred 500 years before present will be seen as a single event if
it lasted for at least 300 years; otherwise events are incorporated into the
long-term average temperature change (Beltrami and Mareschal, 1995b). This
decrease in resolution is due to heat diffusion and it is a real physical limitation
of the method, which is not possible to overcome with mathematical tools. The
resolving power of a borehole-based reconstruction is not only restricted by the
diffusive nature of heat transfer, but also dependent on the level of non-climatic
perturbations which affected the site as well as uncertainties in methodological
aspects (Mann et al., 2003; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004). Surface factors such
as changes in vegetation cover (Nitoiu and Beltrami, 2005), underground hydrology (Kohl, 1997; Reiter, 2005), and latent heat effects (Mottaghy and Rath,
2005), among other, can affect the underground thermal regime independently
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of climate. Therefore, borehole data must be screened carefully before they are
analysed for climate signatures.
Because of decreasing resolution of the method for older events, its most
promising application is the GST reconstruction of the last few centuries. The
subsurface climatic signal of this period is contained in the uppermost 150–200 m
of the temperature profiles, but the minimum borehole needed for analysis
is about 300 m to allow for a robust estimation of the quasi steady-state
profile (Hartmann and Rath, 2005). In many European and North American
sites, the GST history of the last two centuries obtained with this method can
be compared directly with the observed surface air temperature series measured
at nearby meteorological stations. For earlier periods, the geothermal method
offers an alternative source of information to infer temperature evolution
through the last centuries which can be potentially compared with proxy records
at regional and hemispheric/global scales (Beltrami et al., 1995; Rajver et al.,
1998; Beltrami, 2002; Briffa and Osborn, 2002).
The international heat flow community has supported the creation of
a database of borehole temperature logs as an archive of geothermal signals
of climate change (Huang and Pollack, 1998). Currently the database contains
over 800 borehole reconstructions and most of the original borehole temperature
profiles; over 75% of these data are located in the NH. The geographic coverage
is densest in North America and Europe, with substantial datasets from Asia.
In the Mediterranean area, the coverage of temperature logs is relatively sparse.
Nevertheless, some studies have focused in reconstructing recent climate trends
in different parts of the Mediterranean area with the purpose of identifying
potential secular warming/cooling in geothermal information and comparing
it to available meteorological and proxy evidence.
In the central Mediterranean area Rajver et al. (1998) analysed nine boreholes from Slovenia and obtain a warming of 0.7 C for the last century, which
is found to be compatible with meteorological observations. The Ljubljana
borehole (1,965 m depth) allowed for a 90 Ka reconstruction, which was
favourably compared with paleorecords of temperature for neighbouring regions
(Hungary and the Alps). Pasquale et al. (2000, 2005) analyse boreholes in the
western and eastern parts of the Apennines (Italy). They identify differences
in the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic sides which are in correspondence with nearby
meteorological observatories and support influence of local-scale microclimates,
the western side showing a clear warming through the last century in the four
analysed boreholes and the Adriatic side presenting clear cooling trends in
correspondence with the 1940s to 1980s cold relapse in meteorological observations. In the western Mediterranean area, Correia and Safanda (2001) analyse
subsurface temperatures in the Atlantic margins, i.e. a borehole close to Evora in
Portugal showing a temperature increase of 1 C since the end of the nineteenth
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century. Rimi (2000) analysed 10 boreholes in four different climatic types in the
north of Morocco. Results show varying warming amplitudes between 3 and 4 C,
which are in some areas amplified by deforestation and mining effects.
The above studies present the potential of subsurface temperature information
as an alternative approach to establish the magnitude of secular temperature
change in different Mediterranean areas. Proliferation of such studies to cover
the larger Mediterranean area would be desirable. Such estimates should be
compared with climate proxy reconstructions and model simulations to assess
consistency and increase the robustness of our knowledge of past climate
variations (González-Rouco et al., 2003a, 2006; Beltrami et al., 2005). In
Mediterranean areas where the meteorological records are relatively short,
borehole reconstructions can increase our perspective of temperature changes
in the last centuries. Alternatively, the borehole approach can help to elucidate
long-term temperature trends in cases where meteorological observations present
potential inhomogeneities.
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Mediterranean sea temperatures and sea-water chemistry derived from Vermetids,
non-tropical, and deep-sea corals
The oceans exert a very strong influence on the atmosphere due to the continuous exchange of heat and water vapour with the atmosphere and they play
a critical role in the chemical balance of the atmospheric system. SST is one
of the most important variables for the Earth’s climate system. Changes in
SST and their interactions with the atmosphere have the potential to affect
the precipitation patterns, causing droughts, storms and other extreme weather
events, mainly in regions particularly sensitive and potentially very vulnerable
to climate changes, such as the Mediterranean region. Thus, the possibility to
derive long high-resolution time series of key climatic parameters such as
SST and salinity for the Mediterranean Sea is a fundamental prerequisite for
a better understanding of the mechanisms governing climate change in this
region. The only possibility to extend our climate database far beyond the
instrumental record is studying the elemental and isotopic composition of welldated natural archives of climate variability. Over the last centuries, SST records
of high resolution (annual to seasonal) have not been available in the temperate
area of the Mediterranean Sea due to the absence of appropriate proxies, such
as the corals in tropical and sub-tropical seas. An exception are the annually
banded reef corals of the northernmost Red Sea that provide a seasonally
resolved archive of past climate variability for the southeastern Mediterranean
region. With this in mind, great attention has been paid in recent years to obtain
high-resolution records of SST, salinity and water chemistry for the Holocene
in the Mediterranean Sea, using new archives such as vermetid reefs (living
reefs, last 500–600 years, 30–50 years resolution), non-tropical corals (i.e. living
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Cladocora caespitosa, last 100–150 years, seasonal to weekly resolution), and
deep-sea corals (i.e. living Desmophyllum dianthus, Lophelia pertusa, Madrepora
oculata, last 100–150 years, annual to seasonal resolution). These new archives
will complement and improve the information derived from the main climate
indicators such as foraminiferal tests, alkenones, dinoflagellate cysts, calcareous
nanoplankton, and, especially for the Mediterranean Sea, serpulid overgrowth
on submerged speleothems (Antonioli et al., 2001). All these latter marine
markers enable longer paleoclimate reconstructions but with a much coarser
resolution (usually lower than 100–200 years). However, in areas of extremely
high sedimentation rates (>80 cm/ka), such as in the distal part of the nilotic cell,
southern Levantine Basin, foraminiferal stable isotope composition clearly show
the evidence of both the Medieval Warm Period and the LIA, with a resolution
of 40–50 years during the last millennium (Schilman et al., 2001).
Vermetids are thermophile and sessile gastropods living in intertidal or shallow
subtidal zones, forming dense aggregates of colonial individuals. Vermetids show
a wide areal distribution, also being present in the Mediterranean Sea, such as
in Syria, Lebanon, Greece, Turkey, Crete, Italy etc. (Safriel, 1966, 1974; Pirazzoli
and Montaggioni, 1989; Pirazzoli et al., 1996; Delongeville et al., 1993; Antonioli
et al., 1999, 2001; Silenzi et al., 2004; Fig. 18).
Vermetus triquetrus (Bivona-Bernardi, 1832) and Dendropoma petraeum
(Monterosato, 1892) are the two species forming clusters in the Mediterranean
Sea. Presently, living reefs in the northwestern coast of Sicily present a fossil
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Figure 18: Vermetid reefs world distribution (black dots). The vast majority
of species is located in several world seas and oceans, between 44 N and 44 S
(Silenzi et al., 2004).
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portion that is maximum about 650-years old, whereas some fossil samples
collected in uncemented tempestite deposits date back to 2500 years BP.
Vermetids are generally used as indicators of sea level changes and neotectonic
stability (Stephenson and Stephenson, 1954; van Andel and Laborel, 1964; Kemp
and Laborel, 1968; Hadfield et al., 1972; Laborel and Delibrias, 1976; Focke,
1977; Jones and Hunter, 1995; Angulo et al., 1999; Antonioli et al., 1999, 2002)
due to the possibility of precisely dating their calcite skeleton by radiometric
methods. Silenzi et al. (2004) analysed and compared two sections of Dendropoma
sp., from NW Sicily, spanning 500 years to the present day (Fig. 19).
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Figure 19: Left: Vermetid reef mushroom-like type near Capo Gallo promontory
(NW Sicily) and Right: Vermetid reef platform type near S. Vito lo Capo (from
Silenzi et al., 2004).
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The spatial resolution between two neighbouring oxygen data corresponds
to 30–50-years time interval. The isotopic records show a clear oscillation, with
18O values being more positive than at present during the period between the
years 1600 and 1850. Data indicate a maximum difference in 18O from the
LIA to present day of about 0.38 0.1ø, which corresponds to 1.99 0.37 C
SST difference. After the LIA, vermetid reefs recorded the warming trend that
characterized the last century. This rise in temperature ended around the years
1930–1940, and was followed by a relatively cold period until 1995. Moreover,
the SST reconstruction clearly demonstrates that in the early to mid-1500s, SSTs
were warmer than today. The study by Silenzi et al. (2004) proved that vermetid
reefs have the potential to be excellent indicators of SST variability both in
historical time (actual growing reef) and during the Holocene (fossil reefs),
allowing paleoclimatic reconstructions at high temporal resolution.
Shallow water scleractinian corals secrete a calcareous skeleton whose minor
and trace element composition provides a potentially unique archive of the
ambient environment in which it grew (e.g. Felis and Pätzold, 2004). To date,
there have been few studies dealing with coral chemistry at high latitudes but
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none investigated coral species in the Mediterranean Sea. Recently, Montagna
et al. (2004) and Silenzi et al. (2005) targeted a temperate coral species living in
the Mediterranean Sea with promising results. This non-tropical coral deposits
two bands per year, one high-density band forms during periods of low temperatures and low light intensity (autumn–winter), whereas the low-density band
corresponds to high temperature and high light intensity (spring–summer).
Silenzi et al. (2005) demonstrated for the first time the feasibility of using
C. caespitosa as a paleoclimate archive of SST, through isotopic (18O and 13C)
and elemental (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) analyses on a 95-year corallite collected
along the continental shelf of the Ligurian Sea. The work by Montagna et al.
(2004) further proved the potentiality of C. caespitosa as a paleothermometer.
Geochemical ratios (Sr/Ca and B/Ca) exhibit a close relationship to the in situ
measured (weekly) SST at the sampling site and in particular, B/Ca shows an
extraordinary high degree of correlation (r ¼ 0.88, n ¼ 130) with SST. Both
the studies thus demonstrate the capability of this long-lived (100–150 years)
non-tropical coral to preserve SST changes in the Mediterranean Sea at seasonal
to weekly resolution over the last 100 years. In addition, the combination of
18O and trace element ratios (Sr/Ca, B/Ca) will allow to track past salinity
changes at the same resolution of SST. The use of the calibration equations
obtained from the Ligurian and the Adriatic Sea will enable the reconstruction
of the paleo-SSTs during periods particularly interesting for climate studies.
Deep-sea corals are potentially excellent archives of past oceanographic
conditions with their wide depth range providing climate proxies for intermediate
and deep waters. Deep-sea corals can be directly dated using high precision
234
U/238U/230Th, 226Ra/210Pb and 14C methods (Cheng et al., 2000; Goldstein
et al., 2001; Adkins et al., 2002, 2004; Frank et al., 2004; Pons-Branchu et al.,
2005). An understanding of the physical and chemical parameters of deep
waters is important for climate reconstructions since atmospheric climatic
conditions are intimately linked or coupled with the ocean circulation patterns.
The great potential of these archives in the deep-water realm stems from the
fact that they can provide higher resolution than sediment cores and they are
not affected by bioturbation. Moreover, they can span more than 100 years,
allowing obtaining decadal changes with seasonal resolution. Fossil deep-sea
corals, such as Lophelia pertusa, Madrepora oculata and Desmophyllum dianthus,
have been widely documented in the Mediterranean basin whereas living
specimens seem to be less common and widespread (Taviani et al., 2005, and
references therein).
Montagna et al. (2005a) studied the trace and minor element compositions
in two Desmophyllum dianthus specimens collected in the Mediterranean Sea
and in the Great Australian Bight. The chemical variation of productivity
controlled elements, such as P, Mn and Ba seems to reflect changes in seawater
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concentrations, demonstrating the potentiality of this species to become a
powerful archive of deep water chemistry. In addition, the typical watertemperature sensitive elements are the subject of ongoing research, which aims
to reconstruct the temperature variations at high resolution in the deep-water
realm (Montagna et al., 2005b). These results illustrated the potential use of
geochemical composition in deep-sea corals within the Mediterranean Sea,
providing an important new approach to help unravel climatic variability with
respect to the temporal evolution of the chemical and physical properties of
intermediate and deep waters.
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1.3. Large-Scale Climate Reconstructions and Importance
of Proxy Data for the Mediterranean
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The first part of this section shortly describes the basic idea how to incorporate
climate information from different areas in a statistical way to reconstruct largescale climate fields. The second part addresses the importance of documentary
and natural proxies for Mediterranean precipitation and temperature field
reconstructions at seasonal timescales.
Different from local or regional climate reconstructions using a variety of
documentary or natural proxies (Sections 1.1 and 1.2), multivariate statistical
climate field reconstruction (CFR) techniques include multivariate calibration
of proxy data against instrumental records. CFR seeks to reconstruct a
large-scale field, such as surface air temperature, pressure or precipitation
using a spatial network of proxy indicators, performing a multivariate calibration of the large-scale information in the proxy data network against the
available instrumental data. This so-called ‘‘upscaling’’ involves fitting statistical
models, which are mostly regression-based, between the local proxy data and
the large-scale climate. Model fitting is usually based on the overlap period
between proxy and instrumental data. It is assumed that the statistical relationships throughout the reconstruction period are stable (concept of stationarity).
Because the large-scale field is simultaneously calibrated against the entire
information in the network, there is no a priori local relationship assumed
between proxy indicator and climatic variable. All indicators should, however,
respond to some aspect of local climate during part of the year (e.g. Guiot, 1992;
Mann et al., 1998, 1999; Briffa et al., 2002; Jones and Mann, 2004; Luterbacher
et al., 2004; Casty et al., 2005a,b; Guiot et al., 2005; Pauling et al., 2005;
Rutherford et al., 2005; Xoplaki et al., 2005). The approach of CFR (e.g. Mann
et al., 1998, 2000, 2005; Briffa et al., 2002; Luterbacher et al., 2002b, 2004;
Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Brönnimann and Luterbacher, 2004; Casty et al.,
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2005a,b; Pauling et al., 2005; Rutherford et al., 2005; Xoplaki et al., 2005; Zhang
et al., 2005) provides a distinct advantage over averaged climate reconstructions
for instance, when information on the spatial response to external forcing
(e.g. volcanic, solar) is sought (e.g. Shindell et al., 2001a,b, 2003, 2004; Fischer
et al., 2005). Thus, CFR allows insight into both the spatial and temporal
details about past climate variations over the Mediterranean region. There are
a few CFR reconstructions available covering the Mediterranean area: Guiot
(1992) used a combination of documentary proxy evidence and natural proxies
(tree rings, ice core data) to provide fields of annual temperature estimates
from 1068 to 1979 for Europe, including a large part of the Mediterranean
area. He found significant connection between northwest Europe and the
central Mediterranean region during the LIA, while the western Mediterranean
region had not experienced any significant cooling. Briffa et al. (2002) used treering maximum latewood density data to reconstruct large-scale patterns of warmseason (April–September) mean temperature for the period 1600–1887 for the
NH, including the Mediterranean. Mann (2002b) used proxy data and long
documentary and instrumental records to reconstruct and interpret large-scale
surface temperature patterns back to the mid-eighteenth century for the Middle
and Near East. This study suggested that interannual temperature variability in
these regions in past centuries appears to be closely tied to changes in the NAO.
Luterbacher and Xoplaki (2003) provided a preliminary 500-year long winter
mean precipitation and temperature time series over the larger Mediterranean
land area, calibrated in the twentieth century and reconstructed from long
instrumental station series, documentary evidence and a few tree-ring data. They
report also on the spatial temperature anomaly distribution for cold and warm
winter extremes.
The first question, however, is which proxies are of relevance for temperature
and precipitation CFR at seasonal timescale. Pauling et al. (2003) investigated
the importance of natural and documentary proxies for seasonal European
and North Atlantic temperature field reconstructions. Using a set of 27 annually
resolved proxies, they employed backward elimination techniques (e.g. Ryan,
1997) to identify the most important predictor at each gridpoint. These analyses
included tree rings, ice core parameters, corals, a speleothem and indices based
on documentary data. For boreal winter (October–March) they found the
speleothem from Scotland and tree rings to be the most important proxy for
the western Mediterranean; documentary evidence for the northern basin
and parts of northern Africa, whereas the Red Sea coral is of relevance
for the eastern basin. For boreal warm-season (April–September) temperatures,
tree rings, documentary data and the speleothem proved to be most important.
The importance of the speleothem is particularly striking as only one single series
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was used in the backward elimination analysis while other proxy types were more
numerous.
We performed a similar evaluation of high-resolution natural and documentary proxies for precipitation field reconstructions, though restricting the
analyses over the larger Mediterranean land areas (10 W–40 E; 30 N–47 N).
We followed the same method as described by Pauling et al. (2003). Since
different proxies may record climate conditions at different times of the year, we
study the performance of the proxy information for both the boreal cold
(October–March) and warm (April–September) season (Pauling et al., 2003).
Figures 20 and 21 (upper panels) depict the locations of the proxies used in
this experiment (tree rings, ice cores, one coral, one speleothem, and several
precipitation indices based on documentary data). Those proxies have been
shown to significantly respond to local and regional precipitation during both
the boreal cold and warm season within the twentieth century (not shown).
Unfortunately, there are not many proxies fulfilling those criteria and only a
few stem from the Mediterranean area. Most of the natural proxies have been
downloaded from the NOAA World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder,
Colorado, USA (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/wdc/wdcmain.html). As documentary indices are not available for the twentieth century, seasonally resolved
indices based on instrumental measurements were degraded using a similar
approach as Mann and Rutherford (2002), Pauling et al. (2003) and Xoplaki
et al. (2005). Normally distributed white noise was added to the series to ensure
the resulting pseudo-documentary indices are of similar quality as documentary
indices derived from documentary evidence. Most of the documentary and
natural proxies are available for a few centuries and can, thus, be potentially used
for precipitation reconstructions (see below). The common period (1902–1983)
of both the predictors and the predictands was used for calibration. First,
for each gridpoint multiple regression models were established. Second, all
but one predictor at each gridpoint was eliminated using backward elimination techniques. The last predictor at each grid point is regarded as the most
important one of the initial predictor set (Pauling et al., 2003). Figure 20 (middle
panel) presents the spatial distribution of the last remaining predictor at each
gridpoint for the boreal cold season, derived through backward elimination.
The pseudo-documentary indices are the most important predictors over
large parts of continental Europe, explaining moderate 10–20% of the variance
(Fig. 20, lower panel). There are larger areas in northern Africa, southeastern
Europe and the Near East where tree-ring data are the most important proxy
during boreal winter (Fig. 20, middle panel). The Scottish speleothem, the Red
Sea coral and the ice core data from Greenland do only indicate small regions
where these natural proxies are of major importance. Hence, the speleothem is
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Figure 20: Top: Locations of the natural and documentary proxies used in this study.
Middle: Spatial distribution of the most important predictors for boreal winter (October–
March) precipitation over the larger Mediterranean area. For the legend see top panel.
Bottom: Correlation of the most important predictor (Fig. 20, middle panel) with local
precipitation over the period 1902–1983. All values above 0.21 are statistically significant
at the 5% level (t test). The gridded precipitation dataset (10 W–40 E; 30 N–47 N;
0.5 0.5 resolution) from Mitchell et al. (2004) and Mitchell and Jones (2005) was chosen
as the dependent variable. As different proxies have been used to produce this correlation
map, the correlation sign changes over small spatial scales. These changes often correspond
to changes of the most important predictor (Fig. 20, middle panel).
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much less important for precipitation than for temperature, as described by
Pauling et al. (2003). The physical interpretation for those statistically resolved
patterns is not trivial and outside the scope of this contribution.
Concerning boreal summer, documentary precipitation series are still the
most important proxies for large parts of the northern Mediterranean area
and regions over the Iberian Peninsula as well parts of Morocco (Fig. 21).
As for the boreal cold season, those proxies can account for a maximum of
around 20% of summer precipitation over these areas. Compared with the
cold season, tree rings have taken the place of the pseudo-documentary
precipitation indices over southeastern Europe, Turkey and the Near East.
These findings are in agreement with the results presented in Section 1.2.2.
Tree rings explain between 10 and 20% of the April–September precipitation
variability over these areas. Further, tree rings cover a large area of the Iberian
Peninsula and northern Africa. Surprisingly, ice core data from Greenland
seem to be of importance over the southern Near East pointing to possible
teleconnections during the twentieth century. It has to be stressed that these
findings are only meaningful where summer precipitation regularly occurs and
is high enough to exhibit some variability. Over the southern part of the
study area this is not the case or only for the late spring months/early autumn.
Therefore, the importance of tree rings for boreal summer precipitation
reconstructions over North Africa is clearly limited (Fig. 21).
Further analyses have to prove, whether such relations derived within the
twentieth century are stable back in time including more systematic testing
of a larger dataset of proxies. It should be also taken into account that not
only the proxy type determines the results of this preliminary analysis but
also its initial number and location. Pauling et al. (2003) used different proxy
types situated in the vicinity of each other, which reduces the influence of
the location and allows the proxy characteristics to compete in the backward
elimination process. These findings, though, have to be further examined for
the larger Mediterranean area as well.
Mann et al. (1998, 2000); Mann (2002a); Pauling et al. (2003, 2005); Guiot
et al. (2005); Rutherford et al. (2005); Xoplaki et al. (2005) and the results
presented above point out that the multi-proxy approach exploits the complementary strengths from each of the proxies to estimate temperature
and precipitation change over a large area back in time. Thus, large-scale
climate reconstructions based on a careful selection of a combination of
temperature–precipitation-sensitive proxies from all over Europe, including the
Mediterranean, provides a reliable means for reconstructing past regional and
seasonal climate variability.
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Figure 21: As Fig. 20, but for boreal summer (April–September) precipitation.
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1.4. Mediterranean Winter Temperature and Precipitation
Variability over the Last 500 Years
1807
1819
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This section presents the evolution of Mediterranean temperature and precipitation over the last 500 years using data presented in the Sections 1.1–1.3.
The reconstructions are based on principal component, multivariate regression
and have been extensively calibrated within the twentieth century. The reconstruction of entire temperature and precipitation fields, using multivariate
calibration of the proxy data against the instrumental records, allow both
spatial and temporal considerations about past climate variability over the
Mediterranean (Section 1.3). An estimate of the Mediterranean mean temperature or precipitation can, for instance, be derived by averaging over the
reconstructed patterns (see below). Information regarding the underlying
spatial pattern (such as the different Mediterranean sub-areas) is, however,
retained (Mann, 2002a). We will further present spatial fields of the coldest
and mildest as well as the wettest and driest Mediterranean winters derived
from the reconstruction period. Further, we also provide anomaly winter
temperature and precipitation composites where we highlight the difference
between multidecades of mild (wet) minus cold (dry) Mediterranean winters.
Using a few natural proxies in combination with documentary data presented
in Section 1.3 (Figs. 20, 21) and long instrumental station series we fit a statistical model to the winter (December–February average) Mediterranean temperature and precipitation for the land areas 10 W to 40 E and 35 N to
47 N. The details on the methodology and data used can be found in
Luterbacher et al. (2004) for temperature and Pauling et al. (2005) in case
of precipitation. Apart from the description and interpretation in terms of
trends and uncertainties, we will also perform a wavelet analysis and will
report on the change of distribution of winter extremes over the last 500 years.
In addition, a PDSI is derived from these data for selected areas (Morocco,
Italy and Greece).
Figures 22 and 25 show the averaged winter mean Mediterranean temperature and precipitation anomalies (with respect to 1961–1990) from 1500 to 2002.
The time series are composed of a reconstructed time period between 1500
and 1900 as well as the gridded Mitchell et al. (2004) and Mitchell and Jones
(2005) data for the period 1901–2002. Figures 22 and 25 also present 30-year
smoothed time series employing boundary constraint optimized to resolve the
non-stationary late (end of the twentieth century, beginning of the twenty-first
century) behaviour of the time series (Mann, 2004). As proposed by Mann (2004)
we employ an objective measure of the quality of fit (mean-squared error, MSE)
of a 30-year smooth with respect to the original time series.
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Figure 22: Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean temperature anomalies
(with respect to 1961–1990) from 1500 to 2002, defined as the average over
the land area 10 W to 40 E and 35 N to 47 N (thin black line). The values for
the period 1500–1900 are reconstructions; data from 1901 to 2002 are derived
from Mitchell et al. (2004), Mitchell and Jones (2005). The thick black line is
a 30-year smooth ‘‘minimum rough’’ constraint (mean squared error,
MSE ¼ 0.866) calculated according to Mann (2004). The dashed horizontal
lines are the 2 standard deviations of the period 1961–1990. The warmest
and the coldest Mediterranean winters for the reconstruction and the full
period are denoted.
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The reconstructed winter near-surface air temperature (Fig. 22) time series is
more stationary than the one for precipitation (Fig. 25), especially with respect
to the amount of interannual variability. Strong departures from the 1961–1990
irregularly occurred during the entire 500-year period, although warm anomalies
appeared to be enhanced during the beginning of the seventeenth century
(with 1606–07 being the warmest winter within the reconstruction period) and
during the twentieth century. There is a substantial warming trend starting
around 1890.
Centennial temperature variability increases after 1800. However, the uncertainties (two standard errors based on unresolved variance within the twentieth
century calibration period, not shown) associated with the averaged winter
temperature reconstructions are of the order of 1.1 C for single winters up to
the 1660s, and decrease to around 0.5 C at the end of the nineteenth century.
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1911
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1918
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1920
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Note that filtered uncertainties of both, Mediterranean averaged near-surface
air temperature and precipitation are presented in Section 1.7 (Figs. 43, 44).
The warmest (coldest) winter was 1955 (1891). A glance at the most recent three
winters (2002–03; 2003–04; 2004–05; not shown) which are based on the gridded
analysis of Hansen et al. (2001) reveal, that except for 2003–04 (0.32 C warmer
than 1961–1990), the two other winters were below the 1961–1990 reference
period (0.28 C for 2002–03 and 0.44 C for 2004–05).
The spatial anomaly of the coldest (1890–91; 2.4 C colder than the 1961–1990
reference period) and warmest winter (1606–07; 1.4 C warmer compared with the
1961–1990 period) for the reconstruction period (i.e. 1500–1900) are presented
in Fig. 23.
The anomaly spatial temperature maps of both winters shows a monopole
pattern with above (1606–07) and below (1890–91) temperature anomalies all
over the Mediterranean area. The largest deviations are found generally north
of around 41 N. In the case of 1606–07, the uncertainties of the reconstructions
are rather large (of the order of 1 C averaged over the entire area, smaller in
the northern part, larger in the southern and eastern regions) as no instrumental
data are available from the area at that time. The reconstructions are based on
a few temperature indices derived from documentary evidence from central and
eastern Europe and Western Baltic Sea conditions (Koslowski and Glaser, 1999)
and an ice core derived temperature from Greenland (Vinther et al., 2003a; see
Luterbacher et al., 2004, supplementary online material for the used climate
information). Thus, these spatial reconstructions of earlier centuries should
be treated with caution. The comparison with the absolutely mildest winter
(1954–55) reveals also a monopole pattern, though the largest deviations are
found over the southeastern Mediterranean (not shown). The reconstruction
of the cold winter 1890–91 is much more reliable as there are high-quality
instrumental data available from the Mediterranean area as well. Uncertainties
are largest along the northern African coast and the southeastern basin
(not shown).
The warmest (coldest) decade was 1993–2002 (1680–1689) whereas the
warmest (coldest) 30 Mediterranean winters in a row were experienced from
1973 to 2002 (1880–1909) with 0.16 C (0.85 C) departures from the 1961–1990
average. The anomalous spatial temperature distribution of the warmest and
coldest 30 winters is presented in Fig. 24. Except for a few single gridpoints,
all regions around the Mediterranean area experienced negative temperature
anomalies during the 1880–1909 cold period compared with the 1961–1990
mean. For the warmest 30 winters (Fig. 24, bottom) from 1973 to 2002 the
most positive departures are found over the northern areas and northwestern
Africa, whereas the southeastern Mediterranean area experienced colder winters
compared with the 1961–1990 average.
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1929
1930
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Figure 23: Anomalous surface air temperature for the warm Mediterranean
winter 1606–07 (top) and the cold Mediterranean winter 1890–91 (bottom)
(with respect to 1961–1990).
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1960
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1963
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1968
Fischer et al. (2006), analysed the European climatic response to 16 major
tropical eruptions over the last half millennium. They found winter cooling
(though significant only over parts of the Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa)
over the entire Mediterranean during the first post-eruption year (in contrast to
northern Europe where a winter warming is experienced). The anomaly pattern
for the second winter after the eruptions reveals a different pattern with a slight
cooling in the western and eastern part and a warming in the remaining parts
of the Mediterranean. These anomalies though, are not significant.
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1969
1970
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Figure 24: Anomalous winter (DJF) temperature composites. Top: Averagedmean Mediterranean land surface air temperature for the 30 coldest winters in
a row (1880–1909) over the last 500 years minus the 1961–1990 reference period
(in C). Bottom: As top, but for the 30 warmest winters (1973–2002 minus
1961–1990). Data from 1880–1900 are reconstructions, data from the
twentieth/twenty-first century stem from Mitchell et al. (2004) and Mitchell
and Jones (2005).
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The averaged Mediterranean winter precipitation series (Fig. 25) clearly
indicates reduced variability prior to around 1780, possibly an indication of a
low number of proxy information available (Casty et al., 2005b; Pauling et al.,
2005). Low-frequency variations also tend to rise over the centuries. The uncertainties (two standard errors, not shown) associated with the averaged winter
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2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
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Figure 25: Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean precipitation anomalies
(with respect to 1961–1990) from 1500 to 2002, defined as the average over the
land area 10 W to 40 E and 35 N to 47 N (thin black line). The values for the
period 1500–1900 are reconstructions (Pauling et al., 2005); data from 1901
to 2002 are derived from Mitchell et al. (2004) and Mitchell and Jones (2005).
The thick black line is a 30-year smooth ‘‘minimum slope’’ constraint (mean
squared error, MSE ¼ 0.856) calculated according to Mann (2004). The dashed
horizontal lines are the 2 standard deviations of the period 1961–1990.
The driest and the wettest Mediterranean winters for the reconstruction
and the full period are denoted.
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precipitation reconstructions are of the order of 40 mm at 1500 and decrease
to approximately 20 mm at the end of the nineteenth century. There is clear
evidence of an extended dry period (with respect to the 1961–1990) at the turn
of the twentieth century, followed by wet conditions with maximum in the
1960s (see also Xoplaki et al., 2004 and Chapter 3).
A striking phenomenon is the negative winter rainfall trend since the 1960s
(Cullen and deMenocal, 2000; Goodess and Jones, 2002; Xoplaki et al., 2004;
Chapter 3), which seems to be unprecedented as inferred from this reconstructed
long-term time series. This negative trend can at least partly be explained by the
positive trend of the NAO (e.g. Dünkeloh and Jacobeit, 2003; Xoplaki et al.,
2004; Chapter 3 and references therein). Figure 25 clearly reveals that enhanced
anomalies only appeared after 1800. This is an artefact of the statistical
reconstruction approach, or a low number of proxies, rather than a real climate
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feature of the time period 1500–1800. Therefore, particular care is required
when interpreting changes in extreme values prior to 1800. In general, the
frequency and amplitude of intense anomalies from the long-term mean is
steadily increasing between 1500 and 2002. The winter of 2002–03 (not shown)
was distinctly wetter than the 1961–1990 average. The absolute driest (1988–89)
and wettest (1962–63) winters were observed within the twentieth century.
Figure 26 presents anomaly maps of the driest (1881–82, 45 mm drier than the
1961–1990 period) and the wettest (1837–38, 45 mm wetter than the 1961–1990
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Figure 26: Anomalous precipitation for the wet Mediterranean winter
1837–38 (top) and the dry Mediterranean winter 1881–82 (bottom)
(with respect to 1961–1990).
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period) winters of the reconstruction period. The wet Mediterranean winter of
1837–38 was characterized by positive precipitation anomalies stretching from
southwestern Europe and northwestern Africa over Italy towards the Balkans.
Drier, though not significant conditions are found from Tunisia to the Near
East region and parts of Turkey. This anomaly pattern strongly resembles the
correlation map between the winter NAOI and Mediterranean winter precipitation (i.e. Cullen et al., 2002; Xoplaki, 2002). Indeed, the instrumental NAOI
for the 1837–38 winter (Vinther et al., 2003b) indicates a strong negative value.
In the case of the dry Mediterranean winter of 1881–82 widespread negative
precipitation anomalies are found over the northern Mediterranean, Iberia and
northwestern Africa, whereas more precipitation was received within a band
stretching from Italy, Tunisia over Greece towards Libya and the Near East.
This winter was connected to a strongly positive NAOI.
The wettest (driest) decade was 1961–1970 (1986–1995). The wettest (driest)
multidecadal periods (30 Mediterranean winters in a row) were from 1951 to
1980 (1973–2002) with 5 mm (15 mm) departures from the 1961 to 1990
average.
The spatial distribution of these anomalies is presented in Fig. 27. The 30
driest Mediterranean winters (1973–2002) indicate, that especially the central
part, the southern Balkans and the eastern Mediterranean experienced dryness
(Fig. 27, top). There are, however, areas that received more precipitation
compared with 1961–1990. Concerning the 30 wettest winters over the last
centuries (Fig. 27, bottom), there is no uniform distribution. Drier areas are next
to regions with positive rainfall anomalies.
A more sophisticated picture of changes in climate variability over the larger
Mediterranean area is drawn by the wavelet spectra in Fig. 28. The method
uses the Morlet wavelets (Torrence and Compo, 1998) and is designed to describe
the relative importance of different timescale within different sub-periods of
a time series. Mediterranean winter precipitation reveals basically two signals
(top panel): At the interannual up to decadal timescales variability continuously
increases, especially after 1800 with a peak during the most recent 30 years
(compare Fig. 25). It is interesting to note, that Hurrell and van Loon (1997)
report on the spectral peak of the winter NAO at about 6–10 years over the
last decades of the twentieth century in agreement with similar spectral power
found in the Mediterranean winter near-surface air temperature presented
in Fig. 28 (top). In addition, there is a strong multidecadal component, which,
however, is partly beyond the cone of influence (dashed line) – a sector that
cannot be interpreted because of the temporal limitation of the time series. With
respect to temperature (Fig. 28, bottom), variability is more equally split up
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Figure 27: Anomalous winter (DJF) precipitation composites. Top:
Mediterranean land precipitation for the 30 driest winters in a row (1973–2002)
over the last 500 years minus the 1961–1990 reference period (in mm).
Bottom: As top, but for the 30 wettest winters (1951–1980 minus 1961–1990).
Data are taken from Mitchell et al. (2004) and Mitchell and Jones (2005).
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into different timescales. Interannual and decadal variations slightly dominate
but not persist during the entire period. Interannual variability may be somewhat
enhanced since 1850 (Fig. 22). The most striking feature is the multi-centennial
trend since the middle of the nineteenth century.
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Figure 28: Morlet wavelet spectra of regional-mean winter Mediterranean
precipitation and near-surface temperature from 1500 to 2002. The values
denote the wavelet power. Values larger than 4 are statistically significant
at the 5% level.
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A basic question is whether particularly dry and wet as well as cold and
warm winters occurred more frequently during the twentieth century, when
climate may be partly affected by human activity through emissions of GHGs
(Houghton et al., 2001). The analysis of climate extremes and their changes
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2250
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2254
2255
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requires a very careful procedure. There is large uncertainty in the estimate
of extremes, simply because they represent infrequent events with small sample
size (Palmer and Räisänen, 2002). In order to use the entire information
from the precipitation time series, a Gamma distribution is fitted to the data.
The Gamma distribution is an appropriate statistical distribution to describe
precipitation amount at various timescales. The parameters of the Gamma
distribution can be determined using the method of L-moments (Hosking, 1990).
The Gamma distributions are fitted to the high-pass filtered time series (Fig. 29)
in order to remove the effect of enhanced low-frequency variability and transient
climate features. Thus, an extreme is defined as a certain departure from the
decadal-mean background state. Fitting the theoretical distribution separately
to running 50-year time windows between 1500 and 2002 incorporates the
aspect of climate change. The top panel in Fig. 29 shows the Gamma distributions fitted to some exemplary periods. As expected, the Gamma distribution
for winter precipitation is similar to a normal distribution. During the centuries,
the shape of the distribution is getting broader. This implies that variability in
the time windows steadily increases (Fig. 25). In addition, the mean is shifted
towards a lower value in the most recent 50-year period, although the negative
rainfall trend in recent decades has been removed (Fig. 25). Winters with
anomalously abundant precipitation are defined by means of return values given
return times of 5, 10, 20 and 50 years. Longer return periods may theoretically
be derived but are subject to enhanced uncertainty, since within the reference
period the distribution is based on only 50 years. The changes in the various
return values over all running 50-year time windows are depicted in the
middle panel of Fig. 29. It is obvious that anomalously wet winters become
more frequent over the centuries (e.g. Hennessy et al., 1997; Milly et al., 2002;
Christensen and Christensen, 2003). This can either be illustrated as a decrease
in the return times or an increase in the return values. An adequate picture
can be drawn for excessively dry winters (not shown). Note that it is still unclear
to which extent this intensification of extreme winters arises from the reconstruction method or from a real climate change signal.
A final issue is to estimate whether the enhanced frequency of extreme
winters during recent decades in the Mediterranean region is indeed statistically
significant. The linear trend is not suitable measure for extreme changes, because
the latter usually do not obey a normally distributed random process (Zhang
et al., 2004). Therefore, a Monte Carlo sampling is carried out in order to estimate the uncertainty range of different extreme value estimates and to compare
the resulting confidence intervals with each other (Kharin and Zwiers, 2002).
This approach consists of the following steps: new samples are drawn from
the fitted statistical distribution. For each new sample the return values are
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Figure 29: Top: Gamma (G) distributions fitted to different 50-year periods
of Mediterranean winter precipitation. Middle: Time series of estimated
return values between 5 and 50 years, referring to different 50-year periods
between 1500 and 2002. Bottom: Statistical significance of changes in
extreme annual precipitation for different return periods, testing the last
50 years (1953–2002) against all previous 50-year periods between 1500 and 1952.
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determined. Repeating this 1,000 times with a randomized selection of new
samples leads to a distribution of estimated return values instead of one
(uncertain) estimate from the given data. Typically, the return values are normally distributed over a large number of Monte Carlo samples (Park et al.,
2001). Thus, the standard deviation and confidence intervals indicate the level
of uncertainty of the extreme value estimate. Given two different time windows,
like for instance the first and last 50 winters of the long-term time series, a change
in the return values is defined to be statistically significant at a certain error
level, if the corresponding confidence intervals of the return value estimates
are not overlapping between both periods. For instance the 1% significance
level is reached, if the 90% confidence intervals are separated from each other.
In principle, this test evaluates changes in extreme values with respect to the
level of uncertainty of the extreme value estimate itself. The bottom panel in
Fig. 29 illustrates the statistical significance of changes in the occurrence of
excessively wet winters during the period 1953–2002 compared with all previous
periods until 1952. At first sight, the changes are significant at the 1% level
with respect to the first 300 winters of the time series. This is not astonishing,
since variability is substantially lower in the early part of the data set (Fig. 25).
On the other hand, it is also evident that the last decades were not characterized
by a significantly enhanced number of wet winters compared with the climate
conditions between 1850 and 1952. For shorter return periods like 5 years, the
changes are even less pronounced. Assuming that the low level of interannual
variability is related to the reconstruction, there is no indication that excessively
wet winters have significantly changed during the last centuries. The same holds
for anomalously dry winters (not shown).
The same method has also been applied to Mediterranean winter nearsurface temperature (Fig. 30). The basic difference is that the normal distribution
is used to fit annual-mean temperatures. A widening of the distributions is
also visible (top panel). Transient changes in the return values are less apparent
than in the case of precipitation (middle panel; e.g. Domonkos et al., 2003).
Periods with reduced and enhanced warm (and cold) winters are alternating
over the centuries. A considerable shift occurred between the late eighteenth
century with less pronounced warm periods and the second half of the
nineteenth century with excessively warm winters. However, this shift is not
part of a consistent climate change signal. This is also inferable from the bottom
panel in Fig. 30: statistically significant changes in the occurrence of anomalously
warm winters between the last 50 years and previous times are only found
with respect to the late eighteenth century. The same holds for cold winters
(not shown).
This analysis of long-term time series of Mediterranean winter precipitation
and temperature demonstrates that changes in extreme values cannot easily
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Figure 30: Same as Fig. 27 but for near-surface temperature, using the normal
distribution.
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be detected. Although an enhancement of excessively wet and dry winters is
at first sight apparent from the time series in Fig. 25, a careful estimate of the
statistical significance of changes in anomalous rainfall winters reveals that the
twentieth century situation does not stand out from climate conditions in
previous centuries. The signal with respect to the period 1500–1800 is barely
convincing, given the systematic underestimation of climate variability (and thus
uncertainties) during this early reconstruction period. In terms of near-surface
temperatures practically no coherent changes in the occurrence of warm and cold
winters can be unmasked. Thus, there is no evidence that the behaviour of
Mediterranean climate extremes at this interannual timescale is inconsistent
with natural climate fluctuation during earlier centuries. Note that this does
not imply that climate change signals do not exist at other timescales like for
instance daily extreme events (Kostopoulou and Jones, 2005; Paeth and Hense,
2005). In addition, it is conceivable that the long-term trends during the last
decades may be outstanding. Finally, this analysis is based on regional-mean
time series. It is still possible that remarkable changes have occurred in many
sub-regions of the Mediterranean Basin, which do not show up in the regional
mean due to opposing tendencies and compensatory effects (e.g. Xoplaki, 2002;
Luterbacher and Xoplaki, 2003).
Another application of reconstructed temperature and precipitation over
the Mediterranean can be used for applications such as the PDSI. The PDSI is
an index related to the amount of water available for plants. It is normalized
and calibrated for the region where it is calculated (Wells et al., 2004). PDSI
is a complex combination of temperature and precipitation. It has a memory
of several years, so that winter and summer PDSI are highly correlated. Winter
PDSI can be considered here as the water availability at the beginning of the
growing season. We have calculated the PDSI for three regions: Morocco,
Italy and Greece. Figure 31 shows that the long-term (centennial) variations
are quite similar between the three regions, but the decennial variations
can be different. The 1660–1900 period appears to be wet (positive values of
PDSI), in agreement with the flood records of Durance River (France, see Fig. 7),
and we can observe a slow decrease in the water available from the beginning
of the twentieth century to today. Nevertheless it is not clear for Italy, which
remains wet during most of the twentieth century. The fact that the LIA was
humid is certainly due to lower temperature (and then lower evaporation) during
the warm season, as we have seen for Morocco that precipitation was rather
low during this season. In the contrary, the low PDSI during the period before
1650 should be explained by higher temperature as Moroccan precipitation does
not appear to be particularly low.
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Winter PDSI Reconstruction in different Mediterranean regions
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Figure 31: Reconstruction of the winter PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity
Index) at three gridpoints (Morocco: 32.5 N, 5 W; Italy: 37.5 N, 15 E;
Greece: 40 N, 22.5 E) along a west–east gradient, using tree-ring series, with,
in grey, the 90% confidence interval. Grey dots represent the observed series
(Guiot et al., 2005).
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1.5. Connection between the Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation
and Mediterranean Winter Climate over the Last Centuries
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This section is devoted to the connection between the winter large-scale
atmospheric circulation and the Mediterranean climate over the last few centuries, the main patterns and the changing influence through time.
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1.5.1. Major Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with
Mediterranean Winter Climate Anomalies
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Based on objectively reconstructed and analysed seasonal mean SLP grids for the
North Atlantic European area covering the 500-year period from 1500 to 1999
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(Luterbacher et al., 2002b), the major circulation patterns associated with warm,
cold, dry and wet Mediterranean winters have been derived according to
guidelines described in detail by Jacobeit et al. (1998). At first, all temperature
or precipitation winter 0.5 0.5 grids (Luterbacher et al., 2004; Pauling et al.,
2005; Figs. 22, 25) 1500–2002 were averaged for the whole Mediterranean
land area. Second, those winters that differ from the overall mean by more than
one standard deviation have been selected as warm, cold, dry and wet seasons,
respectively. For each of these samples, the corresponding seasonal mean
SLP grids have been submitted to T-mode principal component analyses with
varimax rotation resulting in major circulation patterns (Figs. 32–35) explaining
around 90% of the SLP variances during these anomalous Mediterranean winter
seasons. Due to the T-mode (columns denote SLP gridpoints, rows are the
winters (years) of the Principal Component Analyses (PCA), only very few cases
with reflected patterns (significantly negative time coefficients) do occur; thus,
the sign of the anomalies in Figs. 32–35 is valid for nearly all cases represented
by the corresponding circulation pattern (Jacobeit et al., 1998).
For wet seasons, Fig. 32 depicts as most important pattern (47% of
explained variance) a configuration resembling the NOAA-CPC Scandinavian
pattern in its positive mode with high-pressure anomalies centred around the
Baltic Sea and low-pressure anomalies covering the Mediterranean area. This
blocking pattern is consistent with a negative NAOI characterizing most of
the Mediterranean wet patterns. An exception is pattern 3 with its cyclonic
centre above southern Great Britain reaching up to the western Mediterranean.
Patterns 2–4 have less explained variance (between 10 and 18%) and a wet
impact only in restricted areas of the whole Mediterranean.
Mediterranean dry patterns (Fig. 33) mostly depict a positive NAO pattern
except for pattern 4 that reveals an anomalous configuration with highpressure deviations from the central Mediterranean to the Icelandic region.
The most important dry pattern (nearly 57% of explained variance) includes
well-developed westerlies in higher mid-latitudes and anticyclonic conditions
throughout the Mediterranean region. In contrast to that, pattern 3 implies
an opposition between the western and the eastern Mediterranean, similar to the
positive mode of a recent canonical correlation pattern, which is strongly linked
to various indices of the Mediterranean Oscillation (Dünkeloh and Jacobeit,
2003). However, pattern 3 only accounts for 12% of the variance during the
historical 500-year period. Pattern 2 which in turn is related to drier conditions
in the eastern Mediterranean, has no distinct anomaly centre in the western
region; thus, the Mediterranean oscillation might have been less developed during
historical times than during the twentieth century.
Among the Mediterranean warm patterns (Fig. 34) the positive NAO pattern
known from the dry seasons recurs again as most important one (40% of
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Figure 32: Major four circulation patterns associated with wet Mediterranean winter seasons (DJF) in the 1500–1999
period, derived according to the procedure developed in Jacobeit et al. (1998) (using normalized T-mode principal
component scores; dashed lines denote positive values).
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Figure 33: Same as Fig. 32, but for dry Mediterranean winter seasons.
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Figure 34: Same as Fig. 32, but for warm Mediterranean winter seasons.
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explained variance). The other patterns change the sign of the anomaly centres
compared with the dry patterns thus allowing for regional warm air advection
(from the SW or the SE in patterns 2 or 3, respectively) or a distinct anticyclonic
regime (like in the western part of pattern 4).
The Mediterranean cold patterns (Fig. 35) are similar to both the wet and
the dry analyses: the most important one (41% of explained variance) largely
reproduces the first wet pattern. It corresponds to a blocking configuration
with easterly to northeasterly airflow towards the Mediterranean. The other
patterns are known, with slight modifications, from the dry analysis, depicting
different anticyclonic centres, which organize cold air advection into different
parts of the Mediterranean area.
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1.5.2. Mediterranean Climate Variability since the Mid-Seventeenth
Century in Terms of Large-scale Circulation Dynamics
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Based on objectively reconstructed monthly mean SLP grids for the North
Atlantic/European area covering the period back to 1659 (Luterbacher et al.,
2002b), large-scale circulation dynamics have been investigated in terms of
frequency and within-type changes of major dynamical modes (Jacobeit et al.,
2003). Some of these changes might have affected the Mediterranean region
whose low-frequency variations in winter temperature and precipitation are
reproduced in Fig. 36. Thus, the last decades of the seventeenth century became
cooler and wetter in the Mediterranean area. They were marked by an increased
importance of the surface Russian High pressure pattern with easterly dry and
cold airflow advancing further to the west. The first half of the eighteenth century
became warmer and drier in the Mediterranean region, and was dominated
by large-scale westerly patterns before another period with increasing Russian
High influence coincided with wetter Mediterranean conditions. Around the turn
of the eighteenth to the nineteenth century westerly patterns prevailed again
and led to drier and warmer winters in the Mediterranean area. Subsequently,
until the mid-nineteenth century, the Russian High pressure pattern strengthened
once more with easterly dominance and distinct cyclonic influence in the central
Mediterranean (Jacobeit et al., 2003). This caused a period of increasing rainfall
and decreasing temperatures. During the second half of the nineteenth century
the Russian High retreated gradually and was replaced by different westerly
patterns, which induced a Mediterranean rainfall minimum around 1900 (see
also Fig. 25 above Section 1.4). Afterwards, the well-known changes of the
twentieth century took place with a sustained warming and an initial rainfall
increase being replaced by a sharp decline during the last four decades (Fig. 36;
see also Chapter 3).
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Figure 35: Same as Fig. 32, but for cold Mediterranean winter seasons.
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Precipitation (mm)
105
Temperature (°C)
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Figure 36: 31-year running averages of Mediterranean winter (DJF)
temperature (grey line) and precipitation (black line) for the period 1500–2002.
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1.5.3. Running Correlation Analysis between the Large-scale Atmospheric
Circulation and Mediterranean Winter Climate over the Last Centuries
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A further investigation has been made on the strength and change of the correlation between the averaged Mediterranean winter precipitation and temperature
time series and atmospheric circulation for the 1764–2002 period using 30-year
running correlation. This period has been reconstructed independently (only
station pressure data used for the SLP reconstruction, see Luterbacher et al.,
2002b; Casty et al., 2005b; Touchan et al., 2005b). Reconstructed eastern
North Atlantic/European SLP fields become reliable from 1764 onwards. We
calculated the first and second winter SLP Empirical Orthogonal Function
(EOF) that account together for approximately 68% of total variance of
European winter SLP. We estimated significance levels of the 30-year running
correlations between the PCs and Mediterranean precipitation and temperature,
respectively, from 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of independent white noise
processes. Thus, this analysis is an indication of potential instabilities through
time and the importance of the main European atmospheric patterns on regional
winter Mediterranean climate. The first EOF of winter (December–February)
SLP for the period 1764–2002 explains 44% of the total winter SLP variability
and reveals the well-known dipole pattern, resembling the NAO (not shown).
The spatial correlation between the NAOI and Mediterranean winter temperature and precipitation for the twentieth century and interpretations is given
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in Cullen et al. (2002), Xoplaki (2002), Dünkeloh and Jacobeit (2003) and in
Chapter 3. The second EOF of winter SLP (explaining around 24%) is a
monopole pattern with negative anomalies centred over the British Isles (not
shown). The Mediterranean area is at the southern border of this negative
anomaly pattern. This pattern strongly resembles the East Atlantic/Western
Russia (EATL/WRUS) pattern, which is one of the two prominent patterns
that affect Eurasia during most of the year. It has been referred to as the
Eurasia-2 pattern by Barnston and Livezey (1987). The spatial correlation
between the EATL/WRUS and Mediterranean winter temperature and precipitation for the last decades of the twentieth century as well as its importance
for the Mediterranean climate is given in Xoplaki (2002), Dünkeloh and
Jacobeit (2003) and in Chapter 3. The second SLP Principal Component
(PC) correlates significantly at the 99% level with the EATL/WRUS index
over the common period 1950–2002 (not shown). Thus, this PC can be considered a ‘‘proxy’’ for the winter East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern back
to 1764.
Figure 37 presents the 30-year running correlation between the first and
second PC of winter SLP and averaged winter Mediterranean surface air
temperature 1764–2002. Except for the short period at the beginning of the
nineteenth century, the correlation between the first PC (resemblance with the
NAO) and the averaged Mediterranean temperature is mostly significantly
negative (Fig. 37, top). It should be mentioned that there are regional differences
between the NAO and Mediterranean winter temperature. For instance, the
winter NAOI is significantly negatively correlated with the winter air temperature
over a huge area mainly in the southeastern part, including central Algeria, Libya
and Egypt, southern Italy, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus and the entire Near East
countries (Cullen and deMenocal, 2000; Xoplaki, 2002).
In agreement with those findings, the combined analysis of a seasonally
resolved coral oxygen isotope record from the northernmost Red Sea (Felis et al.,
2000) and reconstructed climate fields over the eastern North Atlantic and
Europe (Luterbacher et al., 2002b) revealed the important role of the AO/NAO
for eastern Mediterranean/Middle East winter climate on interannual timescales
since 1750 (Rimbu et al., 2006). These findings are consistent with other
evidence of a connection between the NH annular modes (AO) and eastern
Mediterranean/Middle East climate variability in past centuries (Cullen and
deMenocal, 2000; Felis et al., 2000; Rimbu et al., 2001; Cullen et al., 2002;
Mann, 2002b; Luterbacher and Xoplaki, 2003). The combined analysis of proxy
records derived from fossil corals of the northernmost Red Sea and simulations
with a coupled atmosphere–ocean circulation model (ECHO-G) revealed an
AO/NAO influence on the region’s interannual and mean climate during the
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Figure 37: 30-year running correlation between the first (top panel), and second
(bottom panel) Principal Component of winter SLP and averaged winter
Mediterranean surface air temperature 1764–2002. The 90 and 95% correlation
significance levels have been calculated with Monte Carlo simulations.
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late Holocene and last interglacial period 2,900 and approximately 122,000 years
ago, respectively (Felis et al., 2004).
On the other hand, the areas from Iberia to Italy, the southern Balkans
towards the Black Sea return non-significant correlations between the NAO and
wintertime air temperature. Positive relationships are prevalent over the northwestern Mediterranean coast, central and eastern Europe with maximum values
north of 45 N (Cullen and deMenocal, 2000; Xoplaki, 2002). Thus, in these
running correlations there are compensatory effects between areas with negative,
and positive correlations, which obviously change through time. Further, the
differences might also be related to not constant transfer functions over time.
Finally, the question arises to which extent climatic patterns during the twentieth
century (calibration period of the statistical models) represent the entire range
of climate variability (e.g. Luterbacher and Xoplaki, 2003).
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The bottom part of Fig. 37 clearly shows stable significantly positive correlation between the second PC of winter SLP and averaged winter Mediterranean
temperature back to 1764. The EATL/WRUS pattern in its negative phase tends
to bring increased anomalous southwesterly circulation connected with significant higher overall Mediterranean winter temperatures.
Figure 38 presents the 30-year running correlation between the first and
second PC of winter SLP and averaged winter Mediterranean precipitation
1764–2002. The upper panel of Fig. 38 indicates significantly negative correlations between the first PC of winter SLP (similar to the NAO) and averaged
Mediterranean winter precipitation. The spatial correlation map between the
winter NAOI and Mediterranean precipitation (Cullen and deMenocal, 2000;
Xoplaki, 2002) supports these findings. Except for southeastern part of the
Mediterranean the remaining areas reveal negative correlations. In terms of PC2,
the running correlations are mostly positive after 1850 onwards.
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Figure 38: Same as Fig. 37, but for averaged winter Mediterranean
precipitation (RR).
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Figures 37 and 38 show that PC1 (PC2) has a robust signal on Mediterranean
mean land precipitation (temperature), while the influence on Mediterranean
mean land temperature (precipitation) is fluctuating and depends on the time
window (not shown). It is suggested, that PC1 (PC2) impact on Mediterranean
precipitation (temperature) is rather homogeneous throughout the region, while
the impact on temperature (precipitation) is not so homogenous and sub-regional
processes can provide different signals, which can eventually cancel.
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1.6. Teleconnection Studies with Other Parts of the
Northern Hemisphere
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Recent findings of idealized SST anomaly experiments by Hoerling et al. (2001,
2004) and Hurrell et al. (2004), indicate that SST variations have significantly
controlled the North Atlantic circulation and the Mediterranean. They are
related to the NAO, with the warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific
Ocean being of particular importance. A review on the influence of extratropical
teleconnections and ENSO on Mediterranean climate for the recent instrumental
period is provided by Chapter 2. Here we mention a few examples and the
potential on possible teleconnections covering the last few centuries.
A preliminary approach to identify regional patterns of teleconnections in a
northern hemispheric scale, based on extreme conditions observed in a small
area like Greece has been reported by Zerefos et al. (2002). They have performed
superimposed epoch analysis. Winter and summer cold and warm years
(25–75%-percentiles, respectively) are used as keydates. They are calculated
from the Athens air temperature records on temperature NCEP reanalysis
data since 1948 (Kalnay et al., 1996; Kistler et al., 2001). Their analyses included
cases with dry and wet quantiles as calculated from the Athens precipitation records on mean SLP data (Trenberth and Paolino, 1980), available
since 1899. The results are presented in Figs. 39 upper, lower panels–42 upper,
lower panels, for winter and summer, respectively. The figures clearly show closed
contours over Greece of the appropriate sign of the departure from the mean,
both in near-surface air temperature and mean SLP.
In the case of air temperature these anomalies are related to opposite sign of
anomalies between Greece and over northwestern Europe, clearly seen in the
lower quantile cases for both winter and summer.
For the dry and wet cases, these opposing sign contours are more evident
in summer. Moreover, in summer and in all cases examined, anomalies of the
same sign as those observed over Greece and southeastern Europe appear as
well over parts of South Asia. These patterns need also to be evaluated from
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Figure 39: Average near-surface air temperature for cold years in Greece
(lower 25%) for summer (JJA; contour interval 0.25 C), upper panel, and winter
(DJF, contour interval 0.5 C), lower panel.
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Figure 40: Average near-surface air temperature for warm years in Greece
(upper 75%) for summer (JJA; contour interval 0.5 C), upper panel, and
winter (DJF; contour interval 0.5 C), lower panel.
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EC
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TE
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60
Figure 41: Average mean sea level pressure for dry years in Greece for summer
(JJA; contour interval 0.5 hPa), upper panel, and winter (DJF; contour
interval 0.5 hPa), lower panel.
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DRY - DJF
0
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30
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0
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-60
0
60
120
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Figure 42: Average mean sea level pressure for wet years in Greece summer
(JJA; contour interval 0.5 hPa), upper panel, and winter (DJF; contour
interval 0.5 hPa), lower panel.
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Table 3: Simultaneous droughts in Greece and China derived from documentary
evidence
Periods of drought in Greece
Number of drought years in
Henna (Northern China)
within each period
305–340
551–559
741–742
1040–1046
All other years from 1 to 1909,
excluding the periods 305–340,
551–559, 741–742, 1040–1046
16 drought years out of 36 (44%)
1 drought year out of 9 (11%)
0 out of 2
0 out of 7
251 drought years out of 1,855 (13.5%)
2670
2672
2673
2674
2675
2676
2677
F
2671
O
2678
O
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2680
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2689
2690
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2697
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2699
2700
2701
2702
2703
2704
2705
2706
PR
D
TE
EC
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R
2686
R
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O
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C
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documentary records and compared to model analysis for northwestern and
southeastern Europe and Asia (e.g. Hsu, 2002; Wang, 2002). The teleconnection pattern seen in Fig. 41 has been tested with independent documentary
evidence mostly from monastery data (in case of Greece from Repapis et al.,
1989; Xoplaki et al., 2001 and for China from the ‘‘Reconstruction of Climate
Data from Ancient Chinese History’’). Preliminary results (Table 3) indicate that
the teleconnection pattern is probably confirmed only for the long-lasting
drought period 305–340. For comparison, the percentage of drought days in all
other years from 1 to 1909 (excluding the periods 305–340, 551–559, 741–742,
1040–1046) for the same region in northern China (Henna) is 13.5%. Further
analysis will also allow to investigate the relationship and its change through time
between Mediterranean regions with published evidence from paleoclimate
reconstructions over the last centuries to millennia in China (Wang and Zhao,
1981; Zhang and Crowley, 1989; Song, 1998, 2000; Wang et al., 2001; Qian and
Zhu, 2002; Yang et al., 2002; Ge et al., 2003, 2005; Paulsen et al., 2003; Qian et al.,
2003a,b; Sheppard et al., 2005).
Jones (2004) and Jones et al. (2004, 2005) have recently studied a highresolution record of lake oxygen isotope change from a varved crater lake in
continental central Turkey (i.e. the semi-arid Cappadocia sub-region). It records
changes in summer evaporation, by comparing it with the records of Indian
and African (Sahel) Monsoon rainfall at an annual resolution through the
instrumental period. They have found that the relationships show periods of
increased evaporation in the continental Central Anatolia region of Turkey
associated with periods of increased Monsoon rainfall in India and Africa, and
this relationship is also found to hold through the last 2,000 years when using
comparative proxy records of both monsoon systems. According to the findings
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of Jones (2004) and Jones et al. (2004, 2005), the largest inferred shifts in the
atmospheric circulation over this time frame occurred around 530 and 1400, and
are linked to shifts between relatively warm and cold periods of the NH climate.
In contrast to the stable influence of the AO/NAO over longer periods,
the influence of the ENSO on southeastern Mediterranean climate is strongly
non-stationary. The analysis of observational data reveals significantly positive
correlations between SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and in the eastern
Mediterranean Sea/northern Red Sea during the mid-1930s to late-1960s
(Rimbu et al., 2003a). The correlations jump to negative values in the 1970s.
The 1970s shift in the ENSO teleconnection on southeastern Mediterranean
climate, which is also documented in a coral record from the northernmost Red
Sea (Felis et al., 2000), is not unique. Similar shifts occurred frequently in the
last 250 years, suggesting that the ENSO impact on the region is modulated
at interdecadal timescales (Rimbu et al., 2003a).
There seems to be also a connection between past and present Nile flood
maxima and ENSO events (Eltahir and Wang, 1999; Kondrashov et al., 2005
and references therein). The coherence between ENSO index and the Nile
flood has a distinguished peak at the timescale of 4–5 years, which is close to the
ENSO timescale (Eltahir and Wang, 1999). The possible physical connections
are discussed in Eltahir and Wang (1999) and Kondrashov et al. (2005) as well.
Further, the drought events that occurred in western Sicily during the 1565–1915
period were compared with ENSO (Piervitali and Colacino, 2001). Results show,
that in periods of many drought events a reduction of ENSO events occurred
and vice versa.
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1.7. Mediterranean Winter Temperature and Precipitation
Reconstructions in Comparison with the ECHO-G and
HadCM3 Coupled Models
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113
Models can help us determine how we might have expected the climate system
to change given past changes in boundary conditions and forcings, which we
can compare to inferences derived from paleoclimatic data (Jones and Mann,
2004). Internal variability generated in coupled ocean–atmosphere models can
be verified against the long-term variability evident in proxy-based temperature
reconstructions of the past centuries. This section deals with the comparison
between the 500-year winter temperature and precipitation reconstructions
discussed in Section 1.4 and the ECHO-G and HadCM3 models.
Two simulations have been made using the ECHO-G atmosphere–ocean
GCM (Legutke and Voss, 1999). This model consists of the spectral atmospheric
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model ECHAM4 (Roeckner et al., 1996) and the ocean model HOPE-G
(Wolff et al., 1997) both developed at the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology
in Hamburg. The atmospheric spectral model is used with a T30 horizontal
resolution (approximately 3.75 3.75 ) and 19 vertical levels. The ocean
component is HOPE-G with an equivalent horizontal resolution of 2.8 2.8
and 20 vertical levels. A constant in time flux adjustment was applied to
avoid climate drift. Two simulations of the ECHO-G climate model (Erik
and Columbus, see Fig. 43) are produced with the same external forcing
specification. Further technical details, descriptions and results with these
simulations are specified in González-Rouco et al. (2003a,b), Zorita et al.
(2003, 2004, 2005) and von Storch et al. (2004). The simulations were driven
with estimations of external forcing factors (solar variability, atmospheric
GHG concentrations (CO2, CH4, N2O) and radiative effects of stratospheric
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°
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N
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±
Figure 43: Comparison between empirically reconstructed winter average
Mediterranean (10 W–40 E; 30 N–47 N) land-based surface air temperature
reconstructions (1500–1900), Mitchell et al. (2004), Mitchell and Jones (2005)
gridded data (1901–1990) (Fig. 24) and model-based estimates over the period
1500–1990. Shown are 30-year Gaussian smoothed series with respect to the
reference period 1901–1930. The simulations include full three-dimensional
atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (ECHO-G (Erik, Columbus)
and HadCM3) based on varying radiative forcing histories. The filtered
reconstructions are presented with their 30-year filtered 95% confidence
interval. See text for details.
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F
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C
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volcanic aerosols) for the period 1000 (1550) to 1990 derived from the data
provided by Crowley (2000): Annual global mean concentrations of CO2 and
CH4, were derived from polar ice cores (Blunier et al., 1995; Etheridge et al.,
1996). The values of N2O were used as in previous scenario experiments with
this model (Battle et al., 1996; Roeckner et al., 1999). Short-wave radiative
forcing from solar irradiance (10Be concentrations in ice cores and 14C in tree
rings and sun spots observations) and volcanic activity (from ice core acidity)
are aggregated into a global annual value. Changes in ozone concentrations,
land use changes, tropospheric aerosols and orbital parameters have not been
considered.
HadCM3 is a finite-difference model with an atmospheric horizontal resolution of 2.5 latitude 3.75 longitude and a 1.25 1.25 horizontal resolution of
the oceanic component. Unlike ECHO-G, HadCM3 does not need any flux
adjustment. This simulation was forced with both natural and anthropogenic
forcings for the 1750–2000 period. It complements a separate run with naturalonly forcings from 1500 to 2000. The natural forcings were volcanic (for four
equal-area latitude bands), orbital and solar. The anthropogenic forcings were
well-mixed greenhouse gases, aerosols, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone
changes, and land surface changes. See Tett et al. (2005) for more detail. The
main differences in the external forcing with respect to the ECHO-G simulation
are the inclusion of the effect of anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols, ozone,
other trace greenhouse gases and land-use changes. The differences in sensitivity
to external forcings of ECHO-G and HadCM3 are described in Brohan et al.
(2005). Further differences between the two GCMs can be related to differences
in their internal variability (Min et al., 2005) and to their ability of properly
representing important geographical details as well as stratospheric processes
which can lead to an inadequate representation of the NAO (e.g. Stendel et al.,
2006).
Figure 43 presents a comparison between the empirically reconstructed
winter average Mediterranean (10 W–40 E; 30 N–47 N) land-based surface
air temperature reconstructions 1500–1990 (Fig. 22, Section 1.4) together
with associated filtered 2 standard errors and model-based estimates over the
period 1500–1990. A similar comparison has been presented for the Alpine
area and the European continent (Goosse et al., 2005c; Raible et al., 2005).
The simulations include full three-dimensional atmosphere–ocean general
circulation models (ECHO-G and HadCM3).
Except for the Columbus (ECHO-G) simulation the two other simulations
Erik (ECHO-G) and the HadCM3 run tend to fall well within the 2 standard
error bands of the filtered reconstruction. Both ECHO-G-simulations seem
to be more at variance with the reconstruction before 1900. This feature is
because the period 1901–1930 is a reference for all curves and the ECHO-G
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O
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integrations have larger trends than the HadCM3 starting from the midnineteenth century. The smaller trends in the HadCM3 simulation are probably
due to a different climate sensitivity and the inclusion of aerosol forcing
which acts to reduce GHG warming especially in summer over continental
areas. Also, the response of the main North Atlantic patterns of circulation
(NAO, EA, etc.) can play an important role in determining long-term regional
temperature trends (e.g. Xoplaki et al., 2003) in the Mediterranean region,
thus differences in the simulated temperature response in both models can
also partially be related to the response of the internal dynamics in each
model and simulation which should be addressed in more detail in the future.
Furthermore, ensemble runs of past simulations are needed (e.g. Goosse et al.,
2005c; Yoshimori et al., 2005).
Prior to the twentieth century, all simulations tend to show a similar range
of variability. The Columbus run presents the most extreme episodes at the
end of the seventeenth century and first half of the nineteenth century. The
first extreme episode in solar activity occurs during the well-known Maunder
Minimum. A temperature minimum at this time can be found in both ECHO-G
simulations and in the reconstruction. The second extreme episode in the
Columbus simulation (around 1825) is not found in the reconstructions
and the other two simulations over the Mediterranean and would be in phase
with the Dalton Minimum in solar activity. Some discussion on the occurrence
of these minima at hemispherical and global scales in the ECHO-G simulations
and in reconstructions can be found in González-Rouco et al. (2003a,b), Zorita
et al. (2004, 2005), and Wagner and Zorita (2005).
Figure 44 presents a comparison between the empirically reconstructed
winter Mediterranean (10 W–40 E; 30 N–47 N) land-based precipitation reconstructions 1500–1990 (Fig. 25) together with associated filtered 2 standard errors
and model-based estimates over the period 1500–1990. It is noticeable that one
of the ECHO-G simulations (Erik) falls well within the uncertainty bands
of the reconstruction through the five centuries. Columbus and the HadCM3
simulations tend to exceed the lower uncertainty band. This is due to a slightly
larger simulated than reconstructed variability and to the reference period
used, which produces some relative shift of these simulations to lower precipitation values in the first four centuries. In general, the simulated interannual
variability of winter Mediterranean precipitation seems to be larger than that of
the reconstruction. The behaviour of precipitation in the larger Mediterranean
area is strongly related to dynamics in the North Atlantic–European area
(Dünkeloh and Jacobeit, 2003; Xoplaki et al., 2004; Chapter 3). For specific
regions, smaller scale Mediterranean cyclogenesis (see Chapter 6) plays a
determinant role and other large-scale patterns as ENSO or the African
Monsoon (see Chapter 2) have been named as possible sources of
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Figure 44: Same as Fig. 43, but for averaged Mediterranean winter land
precipitation.
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precipitation variability. Progress in understanding the differences in simulated
and reconstructed variability will come also from further assessment of the
behaviour of large-scale patterns of circulation in the simulations and reconstructions (e.g. Luterbacher et al., 2002b; Casty et al., 2005b,c) as well as the
limits of the model simulations in reproducing smaller scale convective precipitation. The reconstructions and the model simulations show no clear response
to changes in the external forcing. This is also supported by the lack of coherence
at decadal to centennial timescales between rainfall in simulations with similar
versions of the model (ECHO-G) and the same external forcing. Also the
correlation with the reconstructed winter NAOI is not significant, and no trend
is discernible in the twentieth century. Therefore, the internal variability seems
to be larger than the potential signal caused by variations in the external forcing
(Yoshimori et al., 2005). At lower frequencies, some response of the NAOI to
GHGs is evidenced by model simulations (Zorita et al., 2005).
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1.7.1. Past Climate Variability and its Relations to Volcanism,
Solar Activity and GHG Concentrations: Reconstructions and Models
2908
2909
2910
2911
Recent studies (Lionello et al., 2005) have compared in detail model results from
the ECHO-G simulations of the past centuries with the spatial temperature
reconstruction for the European and Mediterranean region (Luterbacher et al.,
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2004), focusing on the relative role of the external forcing and of the NAO
dynamics. Only winter is considered in the comparison. The model simulation
and the reconstruction present important differences, which do not allow reaching certain conclusions on the role of the Solar Volcanic Radiative Forcing
(SVRF) on the Mediterranean climate. According to the model dynamics, the
SVRF only slightly correlates with winter European temperature at multidecadal
timescales and the two forced simulations show a disagreement over northern
Europe and northern Africa (not shown). In fact, during this season, the effects
of the internal dynamics are superimposed to that of the SVRF forcing.
Consequently, the average winter temperature difference between the two
simulations is well correlated (0.59) with the difference between their winter
NAOIs. The reconstruction shows a different behaviour. Correlation between
reconstructed temperatures and SVRF is significant only at the multidecadal
timescales over northern Europe, while over southern Europe values are
negative.
Consequently, the correlation between simulations and reconstruction is
low over most of southern Europe (not shown, Lionello et al., 2005). An
overestimation of the climate sensitivity to SVRF by the ECHO-G model is
possible: its results are likely to be very inaccurate also because of the poor
representation of the regional details of the Mediterranean region. Another
possibility is that the SVRF might contain some error, or its spatial variability, which is not explicitly described in the experiments, might have important
effects in southern Europe. Finally, inaccuracies in the reconstruction cannot
be ruled out. Identifying the relationships between the main regional climatic
patterns and the radiative forcing due to solar activity, volcanic eruptions
and GHG concentration is a key point to assess the model capability to predict
future scenarios at the regional scale. A low correlation between radiative
forcing (RF) and regional climate and the lack of interactions between RF
and the internal climate variability would limit the possibility to reconstruct and
to predict regional climate, especially in the Mediterranean region. In general,
if present results are confirmed, a considerable part of the Mediterranean
temperature changes is associated with the internal, unpredictable climate
dynamics, and simulations of future climate scenarios could be skilful only
at the multidecadal timescales.
Additional modeling studies of the response to solar and volcanic forcing
have been done with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
models. These have been used to examine the spatial patterns of the equilibrium
response to solar irradiance changes and both the short- and long-term response
to volcanism in a historical context (Shindell et al., 2001a, 2003, 2004; Schmidt
et al., 2004). Many of these studies were performed with a relatively coarse
resolution (8 by 10 ) version of the GCM with 23 layers and a mixed-layer
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ocean. The model emphasized the representation of stratospheric dynamics,
and included a detailed treatment of the forcings such that volcanic aerosols were
specified with latitudinal and vertical time-varying distributions and solar
irradiance variations were spectrally resolved. The latter plays a significant
role in solar forcing since most of the variability is at short wavelengths that is
primarily absorbed in the stratosphere. The model also included the chemical
response of stratospheric ozone to solar variability. Focusing on the Maunder
Minimum period, the model produced the generally cooler conditions of the late
seventeenth century in comparison with the late eighteenth century (Shindell
et al., 2003). Solar forcing provided the dominant contribution, largely by
introducing a prolonged negative wintertime NAO phase (Luterbacher et al.,
1999, 2002a), consistent with earlier studies and with proxy reconstructions
(Shindell et al., 2001a). Volcanic forcing contributed to a general cooling during
this period, but with little spatial structure at multidecadal scales. Stratospheric
ozone’s response to solar variability played an important role in the outcome
in those simulations, amplifying the large-scale dynamic changes by around
a factor of two. The results matched large-scale proxy network reconstructions
in many areas of the NH, including the cooling in northern Europe during
the late seventeenth century (e.g. Luterbacher et al., 2004; Xoplaki et al.,
2005). As noted previously, the decade with the coldest Mediterranean winter
temperatures in the proxy-based reconstruction was 1680–1689 (Section 1.4,
Fig. 22). However, the model failed to reproduce the opposite polarity anomaly
centered over the eastern Mediterranean. Newer simulations with a more
sophisticated version of the GISS GCM called modelE have been carried out
for the case of volcanic eruptions. The simulations, run at 4 5 resolution and
again with 23 vertical layers, reveal that the model is able to capture the
spatial pattern of the short-term response to volcanic eruptions much better
than the earlier model (Shindell et al., 2004). This pattern is almost identical
to the longer term solar response pattern, and the newer model captures both
the northern European (Luterbacher et al., 2004; Xoplaki et al., 2005) and
opposite polarity eastern Mediterranean responses (Shindell et al., 2004). Since
this pattern is also thought to occur largely via the same processes as the longer
term solar forcing, this raises the possibility that models may soon be able
to reproduce historic Mediterranean climate variability much better than they
have in the past.
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1.8. Conclusions
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2993
The larger Mediterranean area offers a remarkably high quality and quantity
of long instrumental series, a wide range of documentary data (Section 1.2.1)
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as well as high and low spatio-temporally resolved natural proxies (tree rings,
speleothems, corals and boreholes; Section 1.2.2). The recognition of correlated
chemical and isotopic signals in new marine archives (e.g. non-tropical coral,
the vermetid reefs and the deep-sea corals) provide an important new approach
to help unravel climatic variability in the Mediterranean basin for the last few
centuries (Section 1.2.2). This multi-proxy climate information make the larger
Mediterranean area very suitable for climate reconstructions at different timescales, as well as the analysis of changes in climate extremes and socio-economic
impacts prior to the instrumental period. However, there are still a lot of archives
with documentary proxy evidence unexplored, as has been shown for the Iberian
Peninsula, Italy, France, the Balkans, Greece, the southeastern Mediterranean
area, possibly the northern African countries as well as ship logbooks. Further,
the coverage of northern Africa with respect to natural, annually resolved proxy
climate data is sparse. Exceptions are tree-ring records from Morocco (work
in Algeria and Tunisia just started) and coral records from the northernmost
Red Sea (Egypt, Israel, Jordan). To the best of our knowledge no annually
resolved proxy climate data exists so far from the Mediterranean coastal region of
Libya and Egypt. More tree-ring work in these regions as well as non-tropical
corals and vermetid reefs could help to fill this gap. Further, there is potential
in the eastern Mediterranean, mainly in Turkey, for new speleothem data which
may provide information on the precipitation conditions over the last centuries
to millennia. Approximately one-third of the country is underlain by carbonate
rocks and caves are frequent. Those caves are geographically well distributed,
making a north–south and west–east transect across Turkey possible
(D. Fleitmann, personal communication).
The data generated by the various studies presented and discussed in this
review contribute to the regional, national and international scientific and
resource management communities. Internationally, these data will fill critical
gaps in multiple global climate databases valued by programmes such as PAGES,
CLIVAR, NOAA-OGP and NASA-EOS. For instance, tree-ring evidence
from the southeastern Mediterranean is especially useful for investigations of
interannual to multi-century-scale climate variability, ranging from climate
system oscillations to recurrent regional drought episodes. Regionally, it is
important to provide a decadal to multi-century perspective on climate variability
to local managers of land and water resources. Given the significance of water
in the region and its strategic importance, this could have considerable impact
on international water resource policy, management and political agreements
between countries in the region. The Mediterranean is a water-deficit region
and in parts there is a history of conflict over land and natural resources.
This information will aid in anticipating and, hopefully lessening the likelihood
of conflict over scarce water resources.
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We addressed the question on the importance and limitations of documentary
and natural proxies for Mediterranean precipitation reconstructions at seasonal
timescale. We found that different proxy types have their specific response region,
which suggests to use region-specific multi-proxy sets in seasonal climate
reconstructions and confirm recent findings devoted to near-surface air temperature (Pauling et al., 2003). Documentary precipitation and tree-ring data are
those proxies, which are the most important both for boreal winter and summer
precipitation covering large areas around the Mediterranean. However, other
proxies such as corals, speleothems and ice cores are relevant for smaller
restricted areas. In order to verify the preliminary conclusions more systematic
testing of a larger dataset of proxies is needed, e.g. additional data around the
Mediterranean area with seasonal resolution considering additional data around
the Mediterranean areas resolving seasonal resolution. It should also be taken
into account that not only the proxy type determines the results but also its initial
number, location, quality and availability over time.
Numerous seasonally resolved documentary proxy data and information gathered from natural proxies discussed in Sections 1.2 and 1.3 have
been used to derive winter Mediterranean temperature and precipitation fields
and averaged time series back to 1500 (Section 1.4). It turned out that rather
moderate seasonal to multidecadal precipitation and temperature variability
was prevalent over the last few centuries. Several cold relapses and warm
intervals as well as dry and wet periods on decadal timescales, on which shorter
period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was superimposed have been found. In the
context of the last half millennium, however, the last winter decades of the
twentieth/twenty-first century were the warmest and driest. The analysis of
anomalously wet and warm winters in Section 1.4 has revealed that in the
regional-mean time series of Mediterranean winter precipitation and temperature
no statistically significant changes with respect to the frequency and intensity of
extreme winters have occurred since 1500.
The relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and
Mediterranean winter climate anomalies during the last 500 years (Section 1.5)
may be generalized in the following way: warm and dry winters linked with
positive NAO modes (first patterns in Fig. 32); cold and wet winters are
connected with Scandinavian blocking (first patterns in Fig. 33). Cold and dry
winters could be related to different anticyclonic regimes (patterns 2–4 in Fig. 34),
whereas warm and wet winters are connected with different cyclonic regimes
(patterns 2–4 in Fig. 35).
Running correlation analyses between the leading patterns derived from the
large-scale atmospheric circulation and the regional averaged Mediterranean
temperature and precipitation reveals, that the NAO (East Atlantic/
Western Russia) has a robust signal on Mediterranean mean land
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precipitation (temperature), whereas the influence on Mediterranean mean
land temperature (precipitation) is fluctuating and depends on the time
window. It is suggested, that PC1 (PC2) of large-scale SLP impact on
Mediterranean precipitation (temperature) is rather homogeneous throughout
the region, while the impact on temperature (precipitation) is not so
homogenous and sub-regional processes can provide different signal which
can eventually cancel (the signal is non-significant for the last few centuries).
Section 1.6 showed that there are indications for possible teleconnections
between Mediterranean and NH climate in past centuries. Finally, the
comparison among the reconstructions of Mediterranean winter temperature
and land precipitation with the ECHO-G and HadCM3 simulations (Section
1.7) shows that the range of variability reproduced by the climate models for
the period 1500–1990 is only slightly larger than that of the reconstructions
(Section 1.4). In the case of temperature, the HadCM3 simulation trends are
comparable with those in the empirical reconstructions (Section 1.4) and
slightly smaller than those in the ECHO-G simulations. This is a reasonable
feature, since the latter do not include aerosol forcings and land use changes.
As for the case of Mediterranean precipitation, no trends are reconstructed
nor simulated (Fig. 44). The variability of Mediterranean precipitation is also
slightly larger for the simulations compared to the reconstructions. Both
assessments reveal the need for a more thorough study that takes into
consideration the behaviour of the atmospheric circulation in climate
reconstructions and model simulations.
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1.9. Outlook
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Despite the fact that there are many proxy data available from the larger
Mediterranean area, the uncertainties of the climate reconstructions increase
back in time. In order to improve reconstruction skill in time and space and
expand climate estimates further back in time, one main aim is therefore to
enlarge the spatio-temporal coverage of high-resolution, high-quality, accurately
dated, natural and documentary proxy evidence from all countries along the
Mediterranean Sea, as there are many sources which have not yet explored and
regions with scarce information (i.e. North African coastal regions) and those
sensitive to climate change. Archives of the Islamic world, yet unexplored,
are believed to provide documentary evidence on past weather and climate.
Attention should also be paid to ship logbooks of which many thousands
have now been located, as a major and reliable data source points to a more
comprehensive review of climatic variation in the region than has hitherto been
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the case. Another interesting source of data is related to agricultural production,
which may be inferred from the taxes paid by farmers and recorded in municipal
and ecclesiastic accounts books. New high-resolution marine archives and
application of isotopic and geochemical proxies will be of much relevance
for past SST, salinity, near-surface air temperature and rainfall reconstructions.
Such new archives will provide weekly to annual resolution records for the
Mediterranean Sea, using rather low-cost sampling and analytical techniques.
More research and tree-ring sampling in the entire Mediterranean region are
required as tree-ring information is probably the most important proxy for large
areas around the Mediterranean. For instance, even though many chronologies
were developed from the southeastern Mediterranean, this is not enough
to faithfully represent an area that expands almost 2,000 km from east to west
and 1,500 km from north to south. This remains one of the largest mid-latitude
semi-arid regions without an adequate network of climate-sensitive tree-ring
chronologies. Recently, R. Touchan started a large-scale systematic sampling
in Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. This project (supported by NSF-ESH) will
establish a multi-century network of North African climate records based on tree
rings, by extending and enhancing the existing tree-ring dataset geographically
and temporally. This network will then be used to study interannual to centuryscale climate fluctuations in the region, and their links to large-scale patterns of
climate variability. Up to date 15 chronologies from Morocco and Tunisia were
developed. The length of the chronologies range from 113 (Dahallia, Tunisia) to
1082 (Col Du Zad, Morocco) years. The incorporation of the multi-proxy data
with a high spatio-temporal coverage, together with sophisticated reconstruction
methodologies (bearing in mind the extreme character of some of the data, linear
and non-linear approaches) will provide a broader picture of past Mediterranean
climate variability covering the last few centuries, not only averaged over
the entire area but for specific sub-regions including the Mediterranean Sea.
An important issue for future investigation on past temperature and precipitation
extreme is the application of the analysis technique described in Section 1.4
to shorter timescales and individual sub-regions of the Mediterranean basin
in order to infer whether significant changes of opposite sign may have happened
at different sites. Further analyses, however, have to take into consideration
sub-areas as current conditions clearly indicate different impacts of major
teleconnection patterns within different Mediterranean regions.
The combination of highly resolved climate reconstructions and model climate
simulations offer extended scientific understanding on the climate response
to external forcing (e.g. the direct radiative and the poorly investigated dynamical
response to tropical eruptions over the Mediterranean).
Another approach to draw a better picture of past climate variability over
the Mediterranean area covering the last millennia is to combine high- and
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low-resolution climate proxies using sophisticated reconstruction methods as
demonstrated for the NH by Moberg et al. (2005).
Future work involving climate reconstructions and model simulations
can benefit our understanding of Mediterranean climate variability at several
levels. Model simulations can be used as a pseudoreality in which gridpoint
variables can be degenerated with noise and treated as pseudoproxies to replicate
reconstruction methods within the simulated world (Mann and Rutherford,
2002; Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002; González-Rouco et al., 2003a, 2006;
Zorita et al., 2003; von Storch et al., 2004; Mann et al., 2005). The simulation of
relevant large-scale climate regimes for Mediterranean variables can be comparatively studied with reconstructions of atmospheric circulation. This should
provide knowledge about the potential response of relevant circulation regimes
to external forcing and aid in understanding differences among simulations and
reconstructions (Casty et al., 2005b,c). Further, the range of simulated variability for precipitation and temperature in simulations of the last millennium in
comparison with multi-proxy reconstructions can help estimate uncertainties
in scenario simulations of future climate change. In addition, the assessment of
the deficiencies of model simulations in reproducing temperature and precipitation at smaller scales, in particular, that related to Mediterranean cyclogenesis,
can help improve model parameterizations. Understanding of variability at
smaller spatial scales and a better simulation of involved processes can be
achieved with regional climate modeling and statistical downscaling. Model
studies investigating the role of processes, such as the stratospheric ozone
chemical response to solar variability or the ocean circulation response to solar or
volcanic perturbations, can help to determine how regional patterns are setup
and why model results differ at regional scales. Last, but not least, the assessment
of the changes in the dynamics associated to extreme climate episodes through
the last millennium registered both in climate simulations and in empirical
reconstructions will help better understand the mechanisms involved in extremes
and related impacts on society and economy.
As shown in this review, the Mediterranean is a region with evident singularities in pluviometric patterns. It produces relatively frequently climatic
hazards like floods and droughts. Due to demographic and touristic developments, people are increasingly exposed to ‘‘climatic hazards’’. Thus, climatic
research must be focused on both, modeling and reconstruction of extreme
meteorological and climatic events. For reconstruction of rarely occurring
extreme events, research on historical documentary sources and fluvial/
lacustrine sediments for instance is needed to identify, analyse and reconstruct
them and put them in a long-term context. Only with this knowledge urban
and regional planning can produce long-term strategies for climatic hazards
prevention.
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Acknowledgements
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Jürg Luterbacher, Elena Xoplaki, Carlo Casty and Erich Fischer are supported
by the Swiss National Science Foundation (NCCR). Elena Xoplaki, Joel
Guiot, Simon Tett, Andreas Pauling, Eduardo Zorita were financially supported
through the European Environment and Sustainable Development programme,
project SOAP (EVK2-CT-2002-00160). Manola Brunet, Elena Xoplaki and
Jucundus Jacobeit were financially supported through the European
Environment and Sustainable Development programme, project EMULATE
(EVK2-CT-2002-00161). Jucundus Jacobeit and Jürg Luterbacher thank the
SFN-Floodrisk/DFG-Extreme1500 for research on the SLP reconstruction and
synoptic analysis. Stefan Brönnimann was funded by the Swiss National Science
Foundation (Contract Number PP002-102731). This Rutishauser is supported
by the Swiss National Science Foundation (Contract Number 205321-105691/1).
Mariano Barriendos and Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco acknowledge support from the
‘‘Research Programme Ramon y Cajal, Ministery of Education and Science,
Spain’’. Mariano Barriendos would like to thank also the ‘‘Research Project
REN2002-04584-C04-03/CLI, Ministry of Education and Science, Spain’’. The
studies of the Italian climate performed by CNR ISAC (Dario Camuffo and
collaborators) were funded by the European Commission, DGXII (Environment
and Climate Programme) and CORILA, Venice, Italy. Simon Tett was funded
by the UK Government Met. Research (GMR) contract. Computer time for
the HadCM3 simulations was funded by the UK Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs under the Climate Prediction Program Contract PECD
7/12/3. Thomas Felis was supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
through DFG-Research Center for Ocean Margins at Bremen University,
contribution No. RCOM0309. Ramzi Touchan was supported by the US
National Science Foundation, Earth System History (Grant No. 0075956).
Sergio Silenzi and Paolo Montagna were supported by the Italian Institute for
Marine Research (ICRAM) under the Paleoclimate Reconstruction program;
they also wish to thank Ermenegildo Zegna Foundation for financial support
and Claudio Mazzoli and Marco Taviani for comments and suggestions.
Michele Brunetti, Teresa Nanni and Maurizio Maugeri acknowledge support
by CLIMAGRI (Italian Ministry for agriculture and forests), ALP-IMP
(EU-FP5), and U.S.–Italy bilateral Agreement on Cooperation in Climate
Change Research and Technology (Italian Ministry for the environment). Jose
Carlos Gonzalez Hidalgo acknowledges support by ‘‘Ministerio de Ciencia y
Tecnologı́a Research Project REN2002-01023-CLI’’. Norel Rimbu was
supported by the AWI through the MARCOPOLI(MAR2) program. We wish
to thank the reviewers for their constructive comments that improved the quality
of the chapter.
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Mediterranean Climate Variability Over the Last Centuries

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