Gualan Island Study
Transcription
Gualan Island Study
GUALAN ISLAND STUDY, SOUTH FORD, OUTER HEBRIDES Final Report Ref: TSE/SA/865/68-PE/03 Alastair Dawson, Cristina Gómez and William Ritchie Aberdeen Institute for Coastal Science and Management (AICSM) e-mail: aicsm@abdn.ac.uk University of Aberdeen February 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Scope of requirement 2 2. METHODS 2.1 Location 4 2.2 Data used and techniques 5 2.3 Field work 8 3. RESULTS 3.1 Geomorphological Background 9 3.2 Landscape Changes between 1984 – 2005 9 3.3 Changes in High Water Mark of Ordinary Spring Tides (HWMOST) 11 3.4 Coastal Change over last 200 years 12 3.5 Recent Changes 15 3.6 Southern Gualan – South Uist area 17 3.7 Volumetric and Area Changes 19 3.8 Discussion 22 3.9 The Future of Gualan Island 25 3.10 Recommendations 27 4. REFERENCES 30 5. APPENDICES Appendix 1 31 Appendix 2 35 Appendix 3 45 i GUALAN ISLAND STUDY, SOUTH FORD, OUTER HEBRIDES Alastair Dawson, Cristina Gómez and William Ritchie Aberdeen Institute for Coastal Science and Management (AICSM) University of Aberdeen 1 INTRODUCTION The future evolution of the South Ford area, between Benbecula and South Uist, will to a large extent be influenced by what happens to the barrier island of Gualan, which almost closes the 2.7 km “gap” on the Atlantic side of South Ford. Gualan is a remnant strip of sand and a vulnerable barrier which, in the future, could disappear and open-up the west side of South Ford to the full range of Atlantic wave and tidal forces. The aim of this research project is to attempt to reconstruct the evolution of Gualan Island with an emphasis on recent trends and possible future changes. The report concludes with a number of recommendations for future courses of action. This Gualan Island project represents a contribution to other projects that are integral to the overall study of the South Ford area and with which Comhairlie are familiar. 1.1 Scope of Requirement Five scopes of requirement issues are considered here: 1. Arising from previous research on coastal evolution in Scotland by the Aberdeen team, the special nature of Gualan will be assessed partly by a revision of this pre-existing body of relevant knowledge. This research element makes use of former maps of the area (e.g. the Ordnance Survey maps of AD 1878) that define earlier positions of the island. 2. When the Aberdeen team undertook ground based LiDAR and GPS coastal surveys during winter 2008, additional GPS control data was gathered for Gualan in order to secure a number of ground control points. BAE SOCETSET with its algorithms (see the South Ford survey project details) for sets of aerial photographs of Gualan together with LiDAR data were analysed to produce Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) as well as maps of change. 2 3. The coring and sediment dating and analysis undertaken by Dr Rowan (Dundee) have a relevance to this work since it provides information on the nature of recent sediment dynamics adjacent to Gualan Island. 4. Fieldwork was undertaken during spring 2009 in order to assess the vulnerability of the coastal dunes in Gualan to erosion and to washover processes that have taken place over the 2008-2009 winter. The centre – north of the island is very narrow and low and an assessment of this vulnerability is an important part of the proposal. 5. Meteorological records for the Monach Isles lighthouse (records kept between 1867-1942) have been analysed. This work has focused on air pressure data associated with extreme storms. An attempt has been made to answer the question if there have ever been times during the latest 19th century (when storminess was at its highest) where air pressure fell to lower levels than it did during January 2005. 3 2. METHODS To analyse the actual condition of Gualan Island and the changes occurred during the last decades and centuries, various geospatial technologies have been applied: from basic observation and drawing to more sophisticated LiDAR and GPS. Comprehensive knowledge of coastal geomorphology and processes were required for interpretation of all data collected. 2.1 Location Gualan Island is a barrier island located in the transition area between Benbecula and South Uist Islands (Outer Hebrides, Scotland). It is centred at (77537, 847762) OS GB36. Figure 2.1 Location of the study area. Gualan Island is between Benbecula and South Uist. 4 2.2 Data used and techniques a. Digital Terrain Model Two Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) derived for the quantification of the physical changes in the coastal landscape of the South Ford area were the main sources of data for evaluation of changes occurred in the last two and a half decades. The DTMs were derived for years 1984 and 2005. The main original sources of data for construction of these models were two sets of vertical colour aerial photography and XYZ data acquired with laser scanner in terrestrial and aerial field campaigns. All photography was acquired from the CUCAP (Cambridge University Collection of Air Photos) catalogue in digital format. Some characteristics of the photos are resumed in Table 2.1. Table 2.1 Characteristics of the data sources for derivation of DTMs DTM 1984 DTM 2005 Number of frames 16 14 Scale 1:15,000 1:10,000 Date 24/04/1984 09/06/2006 TLS Date - 09/09/2008 ALS Date - 16/11/2005 Aerial photography Aerial laser scanner (ALS), also known as LiDAR (Light detection and range) data were available for the Western part of the South Ford including Gualan Island from an aerial survey undertaken in 2005 by SNH (Scottish Natural Heritage). LiDAR data has in this case 1 m resolution in the XY plane; its accuracy is normally in the range 0.2-0.3 m (Maune, 2006). Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) data were collected during fieldwork in September 2008. Areas of special interest identified on photography and with previous knowledge of the area were surveyed in detail. These areas are the most susceptible of change and might be re-surveyed in the future for monitoring purposes. The most up to date equipment from Trimble®, the GX 3D Scanner (Trimble, 2009), was used for this purpose. 5 Global Positioning System (GPS) points were measured with Trimble® 5800 GPS receivers with TSC2 data loggers. The methods used to measure these points depended on the telephone signal available. When the reception was good, corrections on real time (RTK) method with VRS (Virtual Reference Stations) was used. In areas were the telephone reception was not good DGPS (Differential GPS) method with post processing was applied in static mode. Figure 2.2 Digital Terrain Model of the South Ford area used in the study. Left: DTM 1984; right: DTM 2005 Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques permit the identification of explicit locations where changes have occurred in the morphology of coastal formations (Dawson et al., 2007) and the analysis of change quantities, with a defined level of accuracy. Evaluation of planimetric change as well as change in height is readily done, making the estimation of volumetric changes possible. An accurate registration of all data in the same coordinate reference system (OS GB36) enabled correct results when algebraic operations of the raster DTMs were implemented. DTMs spatial resolution for these operations was 5x5 m, small enough to capture the detail of coastal formations and changes (Gómez et al., 2008). 6 b. Historical maps For analysis of longer term changes occurred in the last centuries, historical maps dated 1805, 1878 and 1965 were valuable sources of information. These maps were scanned and relevant elements for analysis, such as MHWL (Mean High Water Line) digitized. Comparison of the planimetric location of the MHWL at different dates allowed interpretation of changes and processes going on in the Gualan Island area. Figure 2.3 Historical map of Benbecula—AD 1805 c. Historical aerial photography A third source of data consists of various sets of historical photography (Appendix 2) which were found in TARA (The Aerial Reconnaissance Archive) in Edinburgh. Digital copies of this photography were obtained from the archive and visually interpreted and compared with recent photography. Table 2.2 shows a list and some details of the photography used. These photo images were not subject to quantitative analysis in this study but they were used as supplementary sources of information to enable checking of the validity of other map and photography measurements. 7 Table 2.2 List of historical photography used for interpretation in the study. Source: TARA (The Aerial Reconnaissance Archive) Photo code Date Scale CPE_UK_0189_1376 10/10/1946 1:10000 CPE_UK_0189_3390 10/10/1946 1:10000 CPE_UK_0189_3391 10/10/1946 1:10000 CPE_UK_0191_4051 10/10/1946 1:10000 CPE_UK_0191_4053 10/10/1946 1:10000 OS_63_062_035 24/05/1962 1:27000 OS_63_146_018 01/07/1963 1:27000 OS_65_072_001 01/05/1965 1:5000 OS_65_072_074 01/05/1965 1:5000 OS_65_090_067 13/05/1965 1:5000 2.3 Field work Field work is always necessary for a correct interpretation and for verification of the results obtained in the laboratory. In August 2009 coastal geomorphologists (AD and WR) made a field trip to Gualan Island to get a better understanding and to correctly interpret the outcomes previously obtained with GIS techniques on the computer (field photographs in Appendix 3). 8 3. RESULTS 3.1 Geomorphological Background Gualan Island represents a classic barrier island that effectively closes off the South Ford basin from the full force of Atlantic waves. The island is separated from South Uist by a small channel that is only operative during high tide. For the most part, the southern part of the island is separated from South Uist by low sandbanks. To the north, the island is separated from Benbecula by a tidal channel, the north channel that is the main conduit for water flow between the Minch and the Atlantic. To the lee of the northern and central parts of Gualan, flood tide sedimentation has resulted in the development of a large intertidal delta (Figure 3.1; 4). Similarly, on the Atlantic side of Gualan seaward of the exit point of the north channel, a large ebb tidal delta is present (Figure 3.1; 6). 3.2 Landscape Changes between 1984 - 2005 Comparison of the 1984 and 2005 DTMs reveals some significant changes that have taken place. These are listed below: 1. The seaward edge of Gualan appears to have retreated to the east. This is shown by the strip of red on the change map (Figure 3.1). The greatest amount of retreat has been in the north (shown as red and purple) the amount of retreat decreasing from north to south. At the very north there is a recurve shown as a concavity of the change map and corresponding to the area of red and purple (Figure 3.1; 3). 2. There appear to have been two areas of sediment accretion. The first of these is at the extreme northern end of the island (Figure 3.1; 2). Here, a gravel, sand and boulder spit extend to the NE towards the edge of the north channel. This spit shows itself as an area of convexity. To the south it is attached to high (5-10 m) vegetated dunes that make up a complex area of undulating marram-clad topography. The second area of accretion is at the extreme south of the barrier island. This area consists of two distinct areas of landscape. To the rear of the southern end of Gualan, there is an area of sand accretion that effectively blocks the movement of tidal waters between Gualan and the 9 northern coastline of South Uist (Figure 3.1; 5). The second area of accretion here consists of the sand dunes themselves. In this area, the coastal dunes have accreted vertically since 1984 forming a stable barrier of vegetated sand. This is shown as a thin green line indicating that despite the west to east retreat of the shoreward face of Gualan, there has also been vertical dune accretion. 3. In the extreme north of the area, complex changes have taken place with areas of high erosion lying adjacent to areas of accretion. In this area, the most extreme sediment loss has been on the Benbecula side of the north channel (Figure 3.1; 1). This appears to be related in some way with tidal flooding in this area and the construction of a flood tidal delta in the lee of the northern and middle parts of Gualan Island. In the lee of Gualan, these processes may be linked to numerous small areas of sediment loss marked on the map by a series of anastomosing channels and sandbanks. Figure 3.1 DTM change map between 1984 - 2005 10 3.3 Changes in High Water Mark of Ordinary Spring Tides (HWMOST) The relative positions of High Water Mark of Ordinary Spring Tides (HWMOST) were superimposed onto the DTMs in order to investigate patterns of change. For this we used the Admiralty Tide Tables manual value of 2.3 m OD. The plots show significant change in some areas and negligible change in others. The greatest changes have occurred in the northern area of Gualan and the adjacent coastal area on the north side of the channel. In the latter area, the reconstruction shows a huge loss of land since 1984. In the northern area of Gualan, these data replicates the descriptions listed above except that in this case a planimetric change can be observed. Hence the greatest changes have been along the seaward face of Gualan, where a lateral recession of HWMOST is indicated between 20 – 30 m (Figure 3.2). Figure 3.2 HWMOST positions for 1984 and 2005 11 3.4 Coastal Change over last 200 years In this section we refer firstly to the Benbecula Estate map for AD 1805 (see also section 2). Although this map covers the area due north of Gualan and only shows the southern coastal of Benbecula together with a limited part of the South Ford basin, it shows some features of fundamental importance to the present study (Figure 3.3). Figure 3.3 Area of southern Benbecula, AD 1805. Note the pink area showing the Lionaclete area as shown as bare sand. Note also the tidal inlets that presently exist as freshwater lochs. Some remarkable changes can be observed comparing the map a recent one (Figure 3.4). The first is that it shows the area presently north of Lionaclete school as being characterised by bare sand. This area is the only such area shown as bare sand for southern Benbecula in 1805. Second, it shows a radically different coastal geography for the area south of the school and as far east as the road junction past the Isle of Benbecula Hotel. For the area adjacent to Lionaclete School, a small tidal creek is shown extending inland (Figure 3.4). Another tidal creek is shown for the loch area east of the Isle of Benbecula Hotel (Figure 3.4). By contrast, the position of 12 Hestimul island as well as the route of the north channel appear to be in precisely the same positions as they are today. Figure 3.4 Coastal line in 1805 drawn over recent map. Note two right hand arrows indicate locations of two tidal creeks while left arrow shows approximate position of HWMOST located much further seaward than today In all the later maps of this area, the tidal creek adjacent to Lionaclete is shown as a freshwater loch. In addition, all maps for the late 19th and 20th centuries show a linear ditch extending from this loch to the sea. At present this ditch crosses the main road ca. 140 m east of the Dark Island Hotel. The purpose of this ditch was to create a drainage outlet for the loch and surrounding fields. Together, this information points to a large inundation of blown sand into this area sometime after the start of the 19th century (i.e. post AD 1805) but prior to the latter part of the 19th century when the first Ordnance Survey map was produced for this area. To what extent, this period of sand blow also affected Gualan is not clear. However, we can presume a huge seaward advance of the Lionaclete coastline at this approximate time. All tidal creeks became blocked by blown sand. Subsequently, coastal erosion along the flank of the 13 north channel adjacent to Gualan began to remove large quantities of the large volumes of blown sand. This change represents one of two reasons why there appears to have been so much coastal erosion south of Lionaclete School. This coastal erosion has served to remove and redistribute the volumes of blown sand that were deposited in this area soon after 1805 and which had caused the coastal edge to advance seawards. Further information on the nature and rate of coastal change is available from inspection of the Ordnance Survey 1:10,560 map of 1878 (Figure 3.5). Remarkable changes in the position and shape of Gualan are evident. For example, the northern end of Gualan was then located nearly 500 m south of its present position. Given the more southerly position of the Lionaclete coastline at this time, one can envisage a 200-250 m wide tidal strait through which Minch and Atlantic waters were exchanged. Not only was the northern end of the barrier island located much further south but the Atlantic shoreface of the island was located ca. 100 m west of its present position (Figure 3.5). The coast line of Ordnance Survey map for 1965 is also plotted on Figure 3.5. The position of HWMOST for this period shows that continued erosion along the northern flank of the north channel had taken place between 1878 and 1965. It is inferred, therefore, that during this time, the position of the north channel was located where the most northern spit occurs at present. 14 Figure 3.5 Coastline change during last 200 years. 3.5 Recent Changes The most recent changes to have affected Gualan are shown on an oblique DTMgenerated image (Figure 3.6). In this image, the scale of the erosion adjacent to Lionaclete can clearly be seen in addition to the loss of sediment on the seaward flank of the northern section of Gualan Island. The newly-formed gravel spit at the northern end (Figure 3.6; 2) can also be seen very clearly. The change between the vegetated dunes at the northern end of Gualan and the gravel spit to the north represents a major change in the style of sedimentation for this area. Since the 2005 imagery was flown after the January 2005 great storm, it is not possible to tell if this change was a direct consequence of the storm or if this change represents the effects of more gradual coastal changes that took place between 1984 and 2005. We favour the former explanation for no other reason that the change from sand deposition across an area of coastal dunes to the deposition of a coarse-grained gravel spit containing boulders, would seem to represent a marked change in wind and wave conditions. 15 Figure 3.6 Oblique view of height changes in Northern Gualan Island, 1984-2005 The areas of red in the lee of Gualan island are intriguing (Figure 3.6; 5). It has been argued earlier that this land area, when submerged during high tide, represents the general site of a flood tide delta (Figure 3.6; 6). We are of the opinion that much of the sediment accretion adjacent to this area represents part of this intertidal delta. The red areas, all submerged during high tide, may represent ephemeral channels adjacent to this delta area. The areas of sediment accretion associated with the flood tide delta lie landward of the tributary channel (Figure 3.6). Towards the centre of the basin and to the east and south of the main channels, the overwhelming pattern of change is that of sediment gain. A significant part of this may represent parts of the flood tidal delta sedimentation. 16 3.6 Southern Gualan – South Uist area The southern part of Gualan Island and adjacent areas between the island and South Uist exhibit evidence for complex changes between 1984 and 2005. Contemporary accounts for the early 1980s describe the presence of an open water channel separating Gualan from South Uist that enabled an exchange of tidal waters between the Atlantic and the South Ford basin. The 1984 air photographs show this channel as a clear feature. Since then, the channel has been subject to aggradation, having been filled by sediment sufficient to reduce this channel to a broad low sandbank through which very little water flows. Figure 3.7 Southern section of Gualan Island showing HWMOST positions In addition to this area of sediment infill in the area of the channel, there has been a more wide-scale infill of sediment in the lee of southern Gualan. The DTM shows this change very clearly (Figure 3.8; 1). This area of sediment infill has extended southwards as far as the culvert at the northern end of Loch Bi. The channel that takes fresh water from Loch Bi is still a clear feature in the landscape. However, 17 it is surrounded by a broad low sand plain that represents the southern section of this broad area of sediment infill. The positions of HWMOST show significant changes to have taken place between 1984 and 2005. For southern Gualan the most notable changes have been along the Atlantic shoreface of the barrier island. The HWMOST plots show significant recession over this time interval, these having occurred mostly along the stretches of the barrier where the coastal dune areas are scarce and fragmentary (Figure 3.7). For the extreme southern section of the barrier island there has been negligible change in the position of HWMOST. As supplementary information, there have been some notable changes along several areas of the adjacent shoreline of South Uist. Here, areas shown as red in 1984 appear to have been subject to a degree of additional tidal inundation by 2005 (Figure 3.8). The topographic changes that have taken place between 1984 and 2005 across southern Gualan are varied and complex (Figure 3.8; 3). The majority of the shoreface of the island has been subject to uniform erosion and retreat with the amount of retreat decreasing to the south. An exception has been along the extreme area where there has been no change has been along the extreme southernmost section of the barrier. In the latter area, there is also clear evidence of dune accretion and upwards growth (Figure 3.8; 2). In addition to the area of sediment accretion in the lee of the southern end of the island, there is also a linear strip of green (accretion) that extends from the extreme south of the island ca. 300 m northwards. This is an important observation since it appears to indicate that this area was more susceptible to marine inundation during storms ca. 1984 than it is today. A consequence of this change is that the basin area in the lee of the southern end of Gualan is essentially protected due to the combined effects of this sediment accretion and the near complete closure of the tidal channel at the southern end of Gualan. 18 Figure 3.8 Southern end of Gualan Island 3.7 Volumetric and Area Changes The DTM change maps have enabled the calculation of volumetric changes of sediment gain and loss between 1984 and 2005. In attempting to understand what these changes mean, one has always to be aware that the volume changes measured represent simply the changes that have taken place between the two dates during which remote sensing was undertaken. As a result we know nothing about the nature of change that took place at various times within the intervening period. Specifically, since the January storm took place prior to the 2005 photography, it is not possible to tell how much of the volume changes were attributable to this one extreme event. Notwithstanding this caveat, Figure 3.9 shows the volume changes that have taken place at the northern end of Gualan adjacent to the north channel. By far the largest area where volume change has occurred, ca. 48,500 m2, has been eroded over this 20 year period. It is inferred here that the key process responsible for this change have been the flood tide currents that enter the South Ford basin at this point from the Atlantic. On the opposite side of the channel, the northern end of the island spit has 19 advanced to the NE and has resulted in the deposition of an additional ca. 4300 m2 of sediment as far as the southern edge of the channel. Figure 3.9 Red transparency shows eroded area, green transparency shows accreted area at the northern end of Gualan island The patterns of sediment volume loss and gain across the basin are shown in Figure 3.10. This diagram highlights the key areas within the basin where the greatest sediment gain has taken place as well as areas along the open coast where there has been loss. For this report we focus on change at Gualan Island. Coastal erosion has been dominant along the shoreward Atlantic face of the barrier island along virtually all of its length except for the northern spit area. In real terms this loss is most probably due to shoreline retreat. This does not mean, however, that the entire feature is being eroded away by the sea. It should be noted that while the shoreface of the southern section of the island has undergone retreat, there has been a synchronous vertical accretion of the coastal dunes in this area. 20 Figure 3.10 Areas where volumetric change has been calculated. Areas named L have suffered loss of volume; areas named G have gained volume. Note that region L1 extends further north and it is truncated by the limits of this Figure. The data shown in Figure 3.10 and Table 3.1 indicate that over ca. 20 years the shoreface of Gualan (Figure 3.10; L4) has experienced an areal loss of ca. 88,000 m2 equivalent to an approximate loss of 7,800 m2 per year. Table 3.1. Areas and volumes of sediment gain and loss shown in Figure 3.10 Area Surface (m2) G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 L1 L2 L3 L4 152,739 499,308 43,438 17,995 44,075 55,674 12,830 108,897 88,259 Total Volume (m3) 180,494 307,878 35,382 26,561 61,835 -64,602 -10,598 -245,785 -194,794 Volume per surface (m3/m2) 1.182 0.617 0.814 1.476 1.403 -1.160 -0.826 -2.257 -2.207 Total Volume per year (m3/y) 7,219.76 12,315.12 1,415.28 1,062.44 2,473.40 -2,484.08 -423.92 -9.831.40 -7,791.76 21 3.8 Discussion This section is prefaced by a map showing the extent of coastal flooding that took place during the January 2005 storm (Figure 3.11). This map was generated by taking the observational data and superimposing this survey map information onto the DTM. The map shows not only the extent of flooding but also spatial variations in the flood levels. The map should always be regarded as an incomplete map since not all flooded areas were surveyed – the spread of the data is only as good as the amount of observational information that was entered onto the original flood map. Figure 3.11 DTM reconstruction of the areas flooded during the 2005 storm For the purpose of this report, only one area of Gualan is shown as having been overtopped by floodwaters. This area is the central section of the barrier island. It coincides with the area where coastal dunes are fragmented or absent and the protective backshore shingle and cobble ridge is relatively low and often eroding. Field inspection of this area during August 2009 shows that this area is essentially dune-free. On the ground, the barrier in this area is represented by a ridge of coarse gravel. The beach shingle is here locally mantled by seaweed that extends over the top 22 of the ridge and onto areas in the lee of the ridge – showing that recent storms are regularly overtopping the ridge section in this area (see Appendix 3 – ground photographs). Thus, Gualan can be usefully divided into 4 distinct sections. In the extreme north there is a well-defined recurved gravel and shingle spit. Its origin and shape are clearly due to strong flood tide currents and distal end longshore transport. This spit is relatively new feature –and it is speculated here that due to the distinct character of this feature, it may have been mostly produced during the 2005 storm. The second area lies to the south of the spit. This area is characterised by high (over 10 m) vegetated coastal dunes. To all intents and purposes, this section of the barrier island, owing to its greater width (50-100 m) and height (up to 15 m) has no likelihood of being breached by the sea. Locally the dunes also show at least 2 phases of northwards extension, it probably having kept pace with the developing spit. These northerly extensions have either narrowed the flood –ebb tidal channels or pushed them northwards towards Lionaclete. Nevertheless, a concave plan profile at the shoreface points to recent severe erosion having taken place (possibly during the 2005 storm). The third section is the central area (described above) where the cover of coastal dunes is fragmentary and absent in some areas. This is the area presently being overtopped during winter storms and is also where a future storm might easily breach the barrier island (Figure 3.12). The fourth section is in the southern area of the barrier island. This area, like those further north, has also experienced shoreface retreat in recent decades. However, this is also the area where the coastal dunes have accreted during the last two decades and where the coastal dune topography has increased in elevation – thus making this area less susceptible to wave overtopping than was the case in 1984. The former main exit for the drainage from Loch Bi at the south end of Gualan is now almost closed and filled with sand. 23 Figure 3.12 Locations 1 and 2 mark the northern coastal dune limit in 1984. Site C identifies a dune area presently susceptible to limited degradation. Areas A, B and D represent the areas present susceptible to the greatest erosion and wave overtopping. Within area A, the coastal stretch shown as B defines the area where a future breach is likely (under a ‘do nothing’ strategy). 24 3.9 The Future of Gualan Island Lessons from the Past In relation to any attempt to make recommendations in respect to what ought to happen to Gualan Island in the future, it is important to understand past changes and how Gualan has responded to past episodes of climate change and extreme weather. In the engineers’ causeway plan document (cited in the University of Dundee report), a borehole adjacent to the causeway route recovered peat deposits occurring beneath ca. 5 m of sands and silts dated to ca. 4-5000 years before present. This observation is consistent with the long-held view that during the last several thousand years there has been a sustained rise in relative sea level and accompanied by general coastal retreat in this area during which a former land surface (indicated by the peat deposits) was buried by marine sediments. Field inspection of some of the small islands located 3-400 m east of Gualan island reveal the presence of machair sediments. This observation, together with local accounts of machair on the islands of neighbouring Hestimul, point to the conclusion that at some stage in the past, presumably after relative sea level had reached near present, much of the South Ford basin was covered in machair. For a number of reasons (including sea level rise, possible climatic change and, latterly, changes in land use) this machair landscape became degraded to the extent that now there are few areas left. It is this context of past changes that provides a setting for the future evolution of Gualan Island. The Ordnance Survey map for AD 1878 makes it clear that the island has migrated eastwards over the last ca. 140 years. Reconstruction of the position of HWMOST for this time indicates that a landward recession in the order of 100 m has taken place - equivalent to an average recession rate of ca. 0.7 m per year. Comparison of the 1984 and 2005 maps points to a similar rate of recession over the last ca. 20 years. In this case, the recession across the central area has been in the order of 20 m equivalent to a retreat rate of ca. 1 m per year. This having been said, the southern section of Gualan Island has risen in elevation by ca. 1 m since 1984 due to the vertical accretion of wind-blown sand on the crest and lee of the coastal dune ridge. 25 From these observations, it becomes clear that the key area of concern for Gualan is the central section where the cover of coastal dune sediments has all but disappeared. The presence of fragments of the seaweed, Fucus vesiculosis, on the crest of the gravel ridge here demonstrates that this area of the barrier island has been regularly inundated by Atlantic waves during recent winters. The 2005 DTM also provides clear evidence that this area was breached by floodwaters during the 2005 storm. In terms of geomorphology, this process is described as washover, when sediment is transported onto the flat intertidal area of South Ford as a sand-splay – with some gravel and shingle. In the long term, these areas of overwash could be stabilised by vegetation but this is here considered as unlikely to happen. Crucially however, there is little chance of this sediment ever being returned to the Atlantic side of the barrier island. Field inspection of this area shows evidence that some measures might have been undertaken locally to prevent further erosion in this area. In the lee of the beach ridge lie numerous accumulations of discarded fishing nets. These have been placed randomly in preparedness for unravelling these across the ridge surface in order to serve as means of trapping sediment. However, none have been put in place while many are non biodegradable. Other measures have been taken in this area to alleviate erosion. The most disturbing of these is provided by vehicle tracks in the central area that seem to indicate the effort of an individual to excavate gravel from the beach and deposit it on top of the ridge. At the present time, therefore, there appears to have been no measures undertaken to shore up coastal defences in this area. Inspection of weather data for the Monach Isles shows clearly that, in the past, the Outer Isles have experienced many severe storms some of which have been associated with lower air pressure than that which occurred during the January 2005 storm. In particular, we draw attention to the storm of January 14-18, 1871 when air pressure fell to a record low of 938 mb (compare with 955 mb during the January storm of 2005). We quote the contemporary lighthouse keepers’ report, ‘…on the 16th at 2 am, wind from South, heavy falls of sleet, at noon the wind shifted to the SW, the barometer fell to 27.70 inches of mercury (938 mb) – this is the lowest seen on the barometer since coming to this station..’. From the perspective of ca. 150 years of weather history for the Outer Isles, there indeed have been other storms in the past 26 that have had a magnitude and intensity comparable to the 2005 storm. These appear to be represented in past weather records by individual storms during 1869, 1871, 1872 and 1921 (Dawson et al. 2007). We therefore interpret the 2005 storm as being ‘..the worst in living memory..’, yet beyond living memory there have been a small number of other highly destructive storms. Despite the UKCIP09 Climate Impact report prediction of no appreciable increase in winter storminess across northern Scotland over the next 2 decades, the coastal communities of the Outer Isles are advised here to prepare for another highly destructive storm at some time in the future (Lowe et al. 2009). 3.10 Recommendations The above observations demonstrating a slow (ca. 1 m per year) landward rollover of the barrier island system together with recent breaching during storms points to the existence of a dynamic and fragile barrier island complex. If we add to this an estimate of a long-term rise in relative sea level in the order of 2 mm per year (DEFRA data cited in Dawson et al. 2008), one is bound to envisage that, in the future, the barrier island will continue to experience shoreface erosion and landward retreat together with occasional breaching during storms. Apart from the functioning of the barrier island itself, Gualan Island performs another key role as acting as a barrier that separates the full force of Atlantic waves from the sheltered coastline that surrounds the South Ford Basin. Waves generated within the basin at the present time during storms are never high owing to the limited fetch environment in which they can develop. As a consequence, wave action along the shoreline surrounding the intertidal basin of South Ford is relatively minor. This opinion was confirmed during a field survey undertaken 10 weeks after the storm, when it was very noticeable that evidence of severe storm erosion (dislodged boulders, eroded coastal cliffs, etc.) was absent within the South Ford basin (Dawson and Dawson, 2005). The key argument in respect of the future of Gualan has to be whether the central section should be allowed to breach during future storms or if measures should be taken to prevent breaching of the central section. One option is therefore to do nothing. For purposes of cost-benefit analysis this has to represent the baseline for this study. If nothing is done in the future, it is 27 highly probable that the central part of Gualan will breach during a severe winter storm. His breach may, in time, widen to an unknown size. The main consequence of such a change would be to increase the erosive strength of wind-generated water waves within the South Ford basin and, presumably, lead to an acceleration of coastal erosion around the basin. If such a change was to happen, a new second tidal channel would therefore open up enabling the diurnal exchange of Atlantic waters with those in the South Ford basin. This report cannot predict the exact consequences of such a change. We therefore await the results of the modelling group to inform us of what such an effect might be. One might expect, however, that part of the present tidal flow through the north channel might be re-routed through this new breach. Whether or not two channels would continue to exist due to the exchange of tidal waters is open to question. Certainly pattern of ebb and flood channels in basin would alter significantly as would the pattern of tidal drainage channels. The position and size of individual sandbanks would also change. Would this reshaping be more or less of a risk to flooding processes around the bay in the future? Would such a change also reduce the tidal flow through the culvert at the north end of the South Ford causeway? These questions are probably most appropriately answered by the results of the modelling study. The width of such a breach would be very important in determining wave regimes within the South Ford basin. It is suspected that a narrow channel would have a limited effect on wave state. A wider channel on the other hand might allow the movement of wind-generated water waves into the basin and, by this process, increase rates of coastal erosion around the edges of the basin. Although the causeway is almost 3 km East of Gualan, it might be exposed to increased attack from windgenerated water waves. Sediment dynamics within the basin would almost certainly change also. Perhaps key in such a set of processes of change would be the issue of how wide such a Gualan barrier breach might become. It is entirely possible that a relatively narrow channel (ca. 20 m wide) might develop over time into a channel or tidal strait several hundred metres in width changing the basin into an embayment in which storm waves could develop. If such a breach were to develop and widen the consequences are difficult to foresee. For example, even though the Gualan barrier failed in 2005 it remains unclear 28 what the direct effects of this breach were within the basin. It might be prudent, therefore, to embark on a reconstruction of the coastal dune ridge along the central section of the barrier island through the provision of an appropriate amount of sand sufficient to create a coastal dune ridge at least 20 m in width and up to 10 m in height. Such a ridge should have embedded within it, sufficient lengths of biodegradable hessian (jute) matting that would have the purpose of binding the sand together and diminishing its susceptibility to future erosion by storms and high tides. We would recommend that the defences should be reinforced by gabions embedded within the dunes, these serving as fail safe devices. A supplementary action should be the planting of marram grass using the sprigging method that, in conjunction with hessian matting, should be sufficient to establish a continuous cover of vegetation along the length of coastal ridge presently at risk from erosion and wave overtopping. 29 REFERENCES: Dawson, A.G. and Dawson, S. (2005) Western Isles Coastal Zone Assessment Survey, Benbecula and South Uist, Commissioned Report for EASE Archaeology and Historic Scotland, 125pp. Dawson A.G., Dawson, S and W Ritchie (2007) Historical Climatology and coastal change associated with the 'Great Storm' of January 2005, South Uist and Benbecula, Scottish Outer Hebrides, Scottish Geographical Journal, 123, 2, 135 – 149. Dawson, A.G., Ritchie, W.A., Green, D., Wright, R., Gomez, C. and A Taylor (2008) Assessment of the rates and causes of change in Scotland’s beaches and dunes – Phase 2, Commissioned Report for Scottish Natural Heritage, Account No. SM002 RGC1479. DEFRA report and data: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/pubs/pagn/climatechangeupdate.pdf Gómez, C., Taylor,A., Green,D., Ritchie,W., Dawson,A., and R.Wright (2008) Terrain 3D modelling for the assessment of coastal change in beach and dune systems in Scotland. SOC Bulletin, n.42 Lowe, J.A. et al. (2009) UK Climate Projections science report: marine and coastal projections. Met. Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, ISBN 978-1-906360-03-0. Maune, D.F. (2006) Digital elevation model technologies and applications: The DEM users manual, 2nd edition Note: all maps used within this report were printed under licenses held by the University of Aberdeen for research purposes. 30 Appendix 1. Monach Lighthouse, Gales :1868 -75 Note: this record is incomplete due to problems associated with the quality of the data and the recording of gale occurrence. The most importance issue arising is the occurrence of a severe gale during January 1871 when air pressure fell as low as 938 mb – this value compares with the lowest pressure reading for the January 2005 storm of 955 mb. A similar severe storm during January 1872 had a recorded air pressure minimum of 946.5 mb. Sept 1868 4th at 5 am – ceased at midnight 19th at 10 pm - until 20th at 3 pm 29th at 10 am - storm continues till midnight 30th October 1868 5th at 2 pm - ceased at midnight of 7th 14th at 3 pm - ceased 8 am 17th 18th at 10 pm - ceased at 3 pm of 19th 20th at 6 am – ceased at 6pm on 20th 22nd at 3 pm – ceased at 2 pm on 24th Midnight of 25th – ceased at 8 pm 27th 28th at 10 am – ceased midnight on 30th November 1868 3rd at midnight – ceased 8pm on 6th 21st at 6 pm – ceased at 4.30 pm on 22nd 22nd at 7.30 am – ceased at 6 am on 23rd 28th at 10 am – ceased at 10 pm on 28th 29th at 2 pm – ceased at end of month December 1868 5th at 2 am – ceased at 4 pm on 6th (964 mb) 9th at 9 am – ceased at midnight Heavy gale: 10th at 4 am – ceased at midnight (970 mb) 12th at 4 am – ceased 6pm same day (963 mb) 17th at 7 pm – ceased at 6pm on 18th (979 mb) 22nd at noon – gale 8 – until 11 pm (964 mb) 26th at 8 am – gale 8 – ceased 2pm on 27th (962 mb) 27th at 8 pm – gale 9 – ceased 9 am 29th (953 mb) January 1869 28-29th - strong gale February 1869 14th – storm from NNW 26th – storm from SW September 1869 17-19th – gale December 1869 12-14th – severe gale 31 January 1870 7-8th – heavy ground swell with gale 14th – tremendous ground swell at high water May 1870 11-12th – gale August 1870 10th – heavy ground swell – but no gale September 1870 9th – gale October 1870 18-20th – gale 23-25th – strong gale November 1870 20-22nd – gale January 1871 15-17th - SW severe gale – air pressure falls to minimum of 938 mb noted by keepers as lowest recorded since lighthouse was first manned in 1868. Keeper (James Burnett) leaves to be replaced by William McLellan March 1871 6th – gale August 1871 4th – gale 22nd – gale December 1871 16th – 21st – prolonged gales 24-27th – prolonged gales January 1872 3-7th – heavy gales 8-12th- heavy gales 17-19th - severe gale – barometer to 946.5 mb February 1873 1-3rd – gale April 1873 4th – gale September 1873 18th – gale October 1872 1-2nd –gale 23-24 – gale November 1872 1-2nd – gale 5-6th – gale 19-20th – gale 22-26th – prolonged gale – barometer to 957 mb 29-30th – gale December 1872 5-9th – prolonged gale from NW 23-25th – gale from WSW 32 Jan 1873 1-3rd – gale 8-9th – gale 18-21st – prolonged gale barometer to 948 mb March 1873 1st – gale April 1873 5th – gale May 1873 5-6th - gale June 1873 9th – gale 24th – gale October 1873 9-10th – gale 21-24th – prolonged gale November 1873 1-2nd – gale December 1873 30-31st – gale January 1874 1-2nd – gale 3rd – gale 5-7th – gale 11-13th –gale 18-24th – prolonged gale 30th – gale February 1874 11th – gale 14th – gale 24-27th – prolonged and heavy gale March 1874 8-9th – gale 19th – gale 28-29th – gale 31st – violent gale April 1874 1-4th – prolonged gale August 1874 1st –gale 5th – gale September 1874 1-2nd – gale 14th – gale 30th – gale October 1874 2-3rd – gale 8-9th – gale 16-17th – gale 20-21st – gale 33 November 1874 29-30th – gale December 1874 10-11th – gale January 1875 1-3rd – gale March 1875 25-27th – gale May 1875 21st – gale August 1875 26th – gale September 1875 24-25th – gale October 1875 4-6th – strong gale November 1875 20th – gale December 1875 21-23rd – severe gale 34 Appendix 2. Historical photography from TARA archive Photo 1 Date: 10/10/1946 Scale: 1: 10000 35 Photo 2 Date: 10/10/1946 Scale: 1: 10000 36 Photo 3 Date: 10/10/1946 Scale: 1: 10000 37 Photo 4 Date: 10/10/1946 Scale: 1: 10000 38 Photo 5 Date: 10/10/1946 Scale: 1: 10000 39 Photo 6 Date: 24/05/1962 Scale (1/m): 1: 27000 40 Photo 7 Date: 01/07/1963 Scale (1/m): 1: 27000 41 Photo 8 Date: 01/05/1965 Scale: 1: 5000 42 Photo 9 Date: 01/05/1965 Scale: 1: 5000 43 Photo 10 Date: 13/05/1965 Scale: 1: 5000 44 Appendix 3. Ground photographs taken during August 2009 on Gualan Island Recurved spit at northern end of Gualan island View looking south of main coastal dune ridge South-facing view of unvegetated shingle ridge 45 Eroding coastal dune ridge facing north towards northern end of Gualan Panorama view of unvegetated section of central Gualan ridge looking north Lee of Gualan barrier showing areas of salt marsh and overwash deposits from storms Seaward face of southern Gualan barrier island showing vegetated coastal dune ridge 46 View north along shingle ridge and overlying dune sediments. Note low area in foreground where marram cover is fragmentary. Note also seaweed fragments from recent storms on gravel surface. Close up of section of degraded ridge showing modern seaweed cover Fishing net material in lee of southern Gualan ridge 47