August - Raiffeisen Bank International AG
Transcription
August - Raiffeisen Bank International AG
August 2015 GSS Press Group Securities Services Monthly In this issue AT A GLANCE Serbia: A vibrant scene Serbia TALKING POINT Zoran Petrovic´ (CEO of Raiffeisen banka) Ana Jovanovic´ (CEO of CRHOV) Siniša Krneta (CEO of the Belgrade Stock Exchange) 2 3 5 6 RESEARCH REPORT Preparing for the second IMF review 7 MARKET ROUNDUP 8 CITY BREAK Belgrade 12 HAVE YOU MET Ivana Novakovic´ 13 CONTACT US14 IMPRINT & DISCLAIMER 15 ATTILA‘S PHOTO BLOG EVENTS This document is intended for institutional investors only. GSS Press | August 2015 16 New thinking, new opportunities The Serbian government has taken the gloves off. A deal with the IMF stipulates that public finances are to be straightened out, heavy cuts in government spending included. Privatizations of state-owned companies are one side effect of this ambitious program. What I find truly remarkable is the new, friendly stance that Serbian leaders, supported by the prospect of a future EU membership, have taken up toward the neighboring countries in this conflict-ridden part of Europe. I am very pleased to observe how the EU’s founding idea of a peace project is being revoked and applied on the Balkans. This issue of GSS Press gives a profound overview over the fast moving developments in Serbia. The capital market may expect a boost from the upcoming landmark privatizations, as both Mr. Siniša Krneta, the new CEO of the Belgrade ´ Stock Exchange, and Mr. Zoran Petrovic, CEO of Raiffeisen banka in Belgrade, ´ CEO of explained. Ms. Ana Jovanovic, CRHOV, told us that her organization is busy adopting EU standards for CSDs. The will for reform is evident. Kind regards, Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy Executive Director Head of Group Securities Services 1 AT A GLANCE SERBIA A vibrant scene A number of considerable developments both on the political and economic side, have characterized the year 2015 in Serbia so far. After officially launching EU accession talks in January 2014, the authorities were engaged in negotiations to open the talks on the first chapter, which might occur already in 2015. Furthermore, the authorities launched public sector reforms that include wage and pension cuts in the public sector, privatization (or liquidation) of state-owned enterprises and streamlining of the public administration under the auspices of the IMF. The cabinet signed a 3-year IMF stand-by precautionary arrangement worth EUR 1 bn. Despite public reforms being the main obstacle for economic recovery, we believe the local economy will benefit from the ongoing monetary policy easing, low energy prices on the global markets and a recovery in the economy of the euro zone, the country’s key foreign partner. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Serbia was stable in the first quarter of 2015 (-1.8% yoy), compared to the fourth quarter of 2014, supported by the implementation of public cost saving measures. However, the upbeat drift came from exports, imports and investments. A more encouraging sign came from an upswing in export of all types of machinery. Main export products encompass cars and other products from the automotive sector. The country is still struggling with high unemployment, fueled by redundancy programs in the public administration GSS Press | August 2015 and in state-owned enterprises that will boost the unemployment rate to 23% by the end of 2015. The key rate cut to a historical low of 6% (compared to 8% in the second quarter of 2014) was bolstered by weak inflation (June 2015: 1.9% yoy) but also by a strong EUR/RSD and the expectation that this scenario would revive the credit cycle. Privatization has set off The Privatization of the majority stateowned company Telekom is under way and, according to the Prime Minister, the company will not be sold “unless it gets a good price and guarantees that the company, once privatized, will improve operations”. Furthermore, according to a restructuring plan jointly prepared by the World Bank and the Government, stateowned Elektroprivreda Srbije will rather look for a strategic partner that acquires a minority stake. The national airline, Jat Airways, has teamed up with Etihad Airways. Under a strategic partnership agreement, Etihad acquired a 49% stake in the Serbian carrier, together with management rights for a period of five years. The rebranding of Jat Airways to Air Serbia came along with a fleet modernization and an expansion of the network. Serbia’s main challenge in the coming period is to fully execute the public sector reform agenda. Also, the government will be busy seeking alternatives for the South Stream gas pipeline project after its cancellation and will have to identify a solution in accordance with the countries in the region. Ivana Novakovic´ Head of GSS Serbia and Ljiljana Grubic´ Economic Research 2 TALKING POINT Intense development The CEO of Belgrade-based Raiffeisen banka, Zoran Petrović, concedes that a lot is being done to increase the attractiveness of the local market, but there is still a long way to go, as he explained to GSS Press On the other hand, the state debt market, as the main pillar of the local financial market, has been characterized by intense development in the recent years. The needs of the state for financing and attractive interest rates caught the attention of both local and international institutional investors. Serbia today has a revenue curve in both RSD and EUR, regular auctions with significant volumes that attract big institutional names and a Public Debt Administration which strives to further improve and promote the local market through publications and analyses, in accordance with other market participants. Mr. Petrovic, ´ could you please share with us your view on the challenges for players on the Serbian capital market? Serbia, as a small and open economy, is making efforts to follow through the implementation of necessary economic reforms, which are designed to ensure stable economic growth, better efficiency and productivity and lower unemployment. The fact that these reforms were not implemented earlier has certainly, to a great extent, reflected onto the local capital market. The Belgrade Stock Exchange is still waiting for its first IPO… The majority of participants on the Serbian financial market traditionally do not regard the stock exchange as an efficient instrument of capital allocation. The greatest number of companies whose stocks are being traded on the stock exchange are there practically by force of law, not by their own free will, which opens a range of open issues relating to business transparency, relationship with investors, information distribution, etc. The preceding period did show some significant changes concerning these topics, but this is still a “forced shareholder market”. Apart from this, the most valuable state companies are not represented on the stock market. Their expected privatization will be performed by tender and direct negotiations with potential buyers, which implies that the state does not trust in the efficiency of the domestic market. The Serbian stock exchange is characterized by an absence of domestic institutional demand. Total assets of local investment GSS Press | August 2015 funds amount to approx. EUR 100 mn, only 1.5% of which pertains to funds that invest into local shares. Banks, pension funds and insurance companies in practice generally do not invest in shares because of strict regulations and a conservative attitude. The only remaining source of demand is individual investors, who possess significant foreign currency savings (exceeding EUR 8 bn), but prefer the most conservative investment model – banking deposits. All this is the aftermath of an economic system and cultural pattern that lasted for several decades, with no efficient investment mechanisms of channeling excess funds into securities, and this cannot be rectified overnight. It will take time and constant education at all levels. We are proud that Raiffeisen banka has made an invaluable contribution to the development of this market, being one of the most important participants and a regular and reliable partner to international financial institutions. Together, great improvements were made in the functionality of the market and its transparency. The tasks ahead concern increasing liquidity on the secondary market and in the future, introducing market makers. What are your expectations regarding the Serbian economy in the medium term? Serious challenges still lie ahead. Serbia must decisively start the reform of the public sector, of state administration which is too numerous and inefficient and public enterprises that are, to a large extent, not profit-oriented, but perform a social welfare function. Moreover, although certain legal improvements were made, especially in the domain of labor law, the overall regulatory framework should be made more efficient and business in Serbia should be simplified. 3 TALKING POINT tion number, as well as for other tax duties. But a tax attorney means additional costs for foreign investors. nal public, so that we received the highest marks in prestigious industry magazines, where service users voice their opinion. I would like to add that, at the moment, the most attractive instruments for foreign investors are debt securities issued by the Republic of Serbia – and they are exempt from all tax duties. Our plan is to continue with this strategy. Our team of professionals, one of the best in our market, who are devoted to developing the GSS business, is our greatest competitive advantage. What are the administrative hurdles for foreign investors compared to other countries in the region? If we intend to reduce administrative barriers for non-residents in Serbia, we should enable more efficient tax collection, and, on the other hand, simplified procedures at the Tax Administration. The local market is less attractive to investors than the markets of neighboring countries, among other things because of the tax treatment of securities. How does Raiffeisen banka in Serbia support the further development of GSS? The fact that developing the GSS segment is an important and long-term strategic goal of RBI on all the 15 markets where it conducts business is a significant advantage for the development of this segment locally as well. Standardization on a group level from the very beginning was one of the business priorities of GSS products and I have to say that we were working intensively to overcome the limitations and shortcomings of the local market and to enable quality service. Apart from this, further development and implementation of solutions for foreign and local investors depends also on the implementation of relevant legal stipulations and movements in the local market, but also in the regional markets. One prerequisite for starting to cooperate with foreign investors is a mandatory tax attorney, both for obtaining a tax identifica- We are glad that our efforts on the constant improvement of this service have been recognized by both clients and the professio- What is your long-term view on the Serbian banking industry? The banking industry will, quite likely, also be subject to changes. Serbia’s market is too small for the 29 banks that are doing business here, all the more so because only about ten of them are profitable. We expect that certain commercial banks will re-examine their business philosophy in the forthcoming period and that there will be consolidations. GSS Press | August 2015 We are pleased to see how some neighboring markets are forming the GSS service into a completely new banking product. We believe these positive trends will spill over into our market. This way, after all the necessary prerequisites are met, its full implementation will be possible here as well. 4 TALKING POINT New initiatives The Central Securities Depository and Clearing House of Serbia (CRHOV) is prepared to adopt EU standards, as GSS Press found out from talking to its CEO, Ana Jovanović. ´ what keeps the market Ms. Jovanovic, participants busy at the moment? Developments on the capital market largely depend on the general macroeconomic situation. In this context, I expect that implementing structural reforms, as well as the stand-by arrangement with the IMF, will contribute to the growth of foreign investment and thus improve the development of the capital market. Furthermore, the privatization process is expected to be completed by the end of the year; and the privatization of large companies will be carried out by means of public auctions as stipulated in the Decree of the Government of the Republic of Serbia. We also expect further development of financing local governments through municipal bonds as one of more favorable methods of financing. Following the adoption of the relevant law, Serbia’s public debt arising from unpaid foreign currency savings to the citizens of the republics of the former SFR Yugoslavia will be regulated through the issue of tradable government bonds. Considering the fact that the market of agricultural products shows the need for the issuance and trading with commodity derivatives, I think that introducing this type of financial instruments will be one of the novelties on the capital market of the Republic of Serbia in the coming period. We are curious to learn about the most recent major developments at Central Depository. To ensure harmonization with the requirements of the regulations governing the central depositories (CSDR), the Central Securities Registry plans a shift to a shortened settlement cycle (T+2) by the end of this year. GSS Press | August 2015 In this respect I would like to mention in particular that even in its current operations the Central Registry may conduct, upon request of the member in terms of stock exchange transactions, clearing and settlement in the period from T+0 to T+2, whereas for OTC transactions the prevailing settlement cycle is T+1. The adequate normative acts and program solutions, which will allow this change, are presently being prepared. Furthermore, in the coming period I expect inter-bank repo agreements to materialize after the NBS harmonized the text of the framework agreement on inter-bank repo transactions with the Association of Serbian Banks last year. The Central Securities Registry was actively involved and created the technical conditions for conducting such transactions. The Central Securities Registry also signed a new cooperation agreement with the Belgrade Stock Exchange at the end of the last year, setting the conditions for further improvement of the so far successful cooperation between these two very important institutions of the capital market. How do you see the CSD’s key role in further preparing the Serbian capital market for the challenges ahead? One of the major novelties on the capital market will certainly be the introduction of the central counterparty concept (CCP) for clearing and settlement of financial instruments. At present, the legislation of the Republic of Serbia is not harmonized with the European regulations in this field. Practice shows that there is huge justification for establishing and developing this element within the current Central Securiti- es Registry among the countries in the region. In this context, the Central Securities Registry is ready to provide, in terms of staff as well as organizationally and technically (IT Infrastructure), the necessary conditions for the functioning of the CCP. I specially stress that clearing and settlement of OTC derivatives represents a very complex and demanding process which requires creating the relevant conditions prior to EU accession. What is your expectation regarding Euroclearing? As a country in the wings to join the European Union, the Republic of Serbia is obliged to harmonize its regulations with the acquis communautaire. In this respect, I expect that the conditions for cooperating with other clearing houses and joining the Euroclearing system will be created in the coming period. 5 TALKING POINT Great ambitions GSS Press had the opportunity to talk to the newly appointed CEO of the Belgrade Stock Exchange, Mr. Siniša Krneta Mr. Krneta, how would you describe the current state of the securities market in Serbia? Objectively, the situation in the Serbian capital market is very difficult. I dare say that this is the most difficult period for the local market in the last 15 years, i.e., from the beginning of the so-called market reforms. I make this statement due to the fact that the Serbian capital market has not been put to any economic function or equation, neither as a variable nor a constant. So far the capital market has only been assigned crumbs remaining after the privatization of dominantly unattractive business entities. Privatizations of possible blue chips have occurred far away from the capital market, and until a few years ago, even an IPO was unenforceable in a way it is understood by modern societies and economies. If the above said alone is taken as true, then with respect for the readers of this publication, not many words should be spent in reaching the conclusion that, under such circumstances, it would not be possible to develop the capital market to levels above those currently achieved. Comparative to the region, the level of development is solid. For those with a lack of ambition, or societies and economies with no need for financing the growth with non-debt capital, that level could be nourished for a certain period of time, but not for too long. Which shortcomings have you identified? The key flaw of the Serbian capital market is its modest range of quality investment alternatives. The Stock Exchange can affect the quality of its own infrastructure, from regulation to IT support. In terms of infrastructure, the Belgrade Stock Exchange has done what it could do, and I believe that has been recognized. Furthermore, the Stock Exchange has significantly contributed to the increase in quality of information for the investment GSS Press | August 2015 public, to the electronization of business procedures as well as to the perception of the relation quality of reporting vs. listing. However, the current concept of the Serbian capital market is reaching its limits. As such, it is unsustainable in the medium term. In this respect, I could say that the ambitions of the Belgrade Stock Exchange are great today because it has an ambition to become an essential element of the financial market, the economic system and ultimately the society in Serbia. A prerequisite in an attempt to achieve this is trust. The Belgrade Stock Exchange, per se, has built a reputation of a reliable institution. Over the past 15 years it has never been involved in any activities that could have impaired the trust in stock market procedures, strictly implementing the written rules, even when it could see the need for amendments, with an emphasis on equidistance to absolutely all market participants. Therefore, trust gives the Belgrade Stock Exchange the right to have great ambitions for the future. What could be done, in your view, to strengthen the Belgrade Stock Exchange? What I like about this question is that I understand it as: what could be done to strengthen Serbia, or the Serbian economy? The Serbian economy and its capital market have come to a point of exhaustion with respect to the existing concept. The expiration of two concepts which are “not on speaking terms” with each other should produce a new and unique one. And if that new scheme has no room for the capital market, this would prove the new concept of the Serbian economy wrong. So, why do I take pleasure in this question? Because the Belgrade Stock Exchange will no longer be a lonely Don Quixote fighting for its place in the Serbian financial market. When you are not alone in striving for so- mething better, the struggle will be easier and the outcome better than expected. What does the Belgrade Stock Exchange need? First of all, it needs a series of IPOs. I believe that at first there has to be an IPO of a large, currently majority state-owned or semi-state company. If not Telekom Srbija then EPS, Komercijalna banka or Dunav osiguranje, maybe Putevi Srbije. The state should be first in order to present the IPO as a model and what it serves for. Above all, this could showcase a counterpart to debt financing. Also, the government of a country is the only body which could, at an acceptable speed, alter regulations which might prevent companies from going public. Once that happens, everything else required for strengthening the stock exchange will come by itself and will only depend on the ability of those managing the relevant stock exchange. What is your forecast for the Serbian capital market over a medium term? The business environment of the Belgrade Stock Exchange makes every forecast ungrateful. My job, as is the job of each individual employed in the Belgrade Stock Exchange, is to make a series of small steps which would lead us, in the medium term, to the first victories in the fight for a new stock exchange. Each new listing will be considered a success. Great victories would include the listing of government bonds, finally. The Belgrade Stock Exchange is now at a crossroads. We have just opted for a new direction. If the choice was good, the Belgrade Stock Exchange will be mirroring the new Serbian economy within 5 to 7 years. In this context, I see the Belgrade Stock Exchange as a desirable investment destination. 6 Serbia Serbia SERBIA RESEARCH REPORT Preparing for the second IMF review Preparing for the second IMF review Preparing for the second IMF review provided by Raiffeisen bank a.d., Belgrade First IMF review demanded stricter reform agenda implementation Low ination and strong EUR/RSD supported aggressive monetary policy easing in H1 IMF review demanded stricter reform agenda implementation First Investments reviving and Belgrade Waterfront Project to back GDP recovery Low in ation and strong EUR/RSD supported aggressive monetary policy easing in H1 Yields on the downside supported by the IMF deal Investments reviving and Belgrade Waterfront Project to back GDP recovery Yields on the downside supported by the IMF deal Real GDP (% yoy) 3 2016f 2016f 2015e 2015e 2014 2014 2013 2013 2012 2012 -2 4 8 0 4 -4 0 -8 -4 -12 -8 Forecast 2011 2011 2 3 1 2 0 1 -1 0 -2 -1 8 Forecast Real GDP (% yoy) 2010 2010 -12 Real GDP (% yoy) Industrial output (% yoy, r.h.s.) Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Real GDP (% yoy) Industrial output (% yoy, r.h.s.) Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH Exchange rate development 128 Exchange rate development 126 124 128 122 126 120 124 ForecastForecast The recovery in investment stemming from the modernisation of railways and coal mine plants, together with the start of the United Arab Emirates and government The in investment stemming the modernisation of railways and coal jointrecovery investments in the EUR 3.5 bn from Belgrade Waterfront project construction, mine plants, together with the start of the United Arab Emirates and government will be supportive for the economic recovery from H2 2015. FIAT vehicle exports joint in the EUR 3.5 Belgrade project construction, mightinvestments also positively contribute to bn GDP once theWaterfront EUR/RSD starts to weaken. The will supportive economic recovery H2 Fed 2015. FIATitsvehicle exports latterbewe expect to for seethe from late summer afterfrom the US shifts monetary polmight also contribute to GDP once the EUR/RSD starts widening to weaken. icy and thepositively NBS allows the dinar to weaken, amidst significant of The the latter we expect to see from late summer after the US Fed shifts its monetary polforeign trade deficit. Following the aggressive rate cut in H1 the NBS will take a icy and the NBS allows the in dinar to resumes weaken, following amidst significant the more cautious stance after ation the 12% widening electricityof price foreign deficit. the aggressive in to H1depreciate. the NBS will take a hike on trade 1 August andFollowing the EUR/RSD exchange rate rate cut starts more cautious after ination resumes following thein12% electricity price Given that the stance primary non-consolidated budget surplus Jan-Apr/2015 is a hike on 1 August and the EUR/RSD exchange rate starts to depreciate. function of the implementation of measures which are limited in terms of their Given thatwe theview primary non-consolidated Jan-Apr/2015 is a duration, the plans of the Prime budget Ministersurplus to raiseinpublic sector wages function implementation of tough measures which are areyet limited in terms their in 2015 of as the being premature. The measures to come i.e. aofredunduration, we view the plans administration of the Prime Minister to raisethepublic sector wages dancy programme in public and creating working group for in 2015 as being premature. The tough measures are yet to come i.e. a redunthe three largest state-owned chemical firms, which are the major debtors to the dancy programme in public administration andIMF creating the working group for state-held natural gas company Srbijagas. The was strict in the first review, the the three largestmissed state-owned firms, are the major debtors to met the as cabinet out on chemical complying withwhich two requirements that will be state-held naturalahead gas company Srbijagas. The The IMF Public was strict the first review, during summer of the second review. DebtinManagement is as the cabinet missed out on complying with two requirements that will be met well prepared for the shift in the US Fed’s monetary policy and succeeded in during summer ahead of outstanding the second portfolio review. The Debt is refinancing 73.1% of the (EURPublic 2.8 bn) byManagement mid-June. Howwell for the shift in the US in Fed’s monetary policy and succeeded in ever, prepared the incredible downward move yields supported by non-residents’ comrefinancing 73.1% of the outstanding 2.8 bn) of byhuge mid-June. fort zone after the IMF deal was struck,portfolio and the (EUR RSD liquidity local Howplayever, the incredible downward move in yields non-residents’ comers makes the yield curve overvalued, given thesupported still high by scal risks. We believe fort zone after the IMF deal was struck, and the RSD liquidity of huge local playthat the room for further yield declines has narrowed, although the bonds still ofers amakes the yield curve overvalued, therate stillenvironment. high scal risks. We believe fer nice risk-reward profile in a zero given interest Ljiljana Raiffeisen bank that the room for further yield Financial declines has narrowed, although the bonds still ofFinancial analyst: analyst: Ljiljana Grubic, Grubic, Raiffeisenbank a.d., Belgrade fer a nice risk-reward profile in a zero interest rate environment. Financial analyst: Ljiljana Grubic, Raiffeisenbank a.d., Belgrade Key economic gures and forecasts 118 122 116 120 114 118 112 116 114Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 EUR/RSD (eop) 112 EUR/RSD: 5y Dec-13 high 123.67, 5yDec-14 low 96.6 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH EUR/RSD (eop) EUR/RSD: 5y high 123.67, 5y low 96.6 Source: Bloomberg, Raiffeisen RESEARCH 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 29.8 33.4 31.7 34.3 33.2 33.7 35.6 Real GDP (% yoy) 1.0 2010 1.4 2011 -1.0 2012 2.6 2013 -1.8 2014 0.0 2015e 2.5 2016f Industrial GDP output(EUR (% yoy) Nominal bn) 2.5 29.8 2.1 33.4 -2.9 31.7 5.5 34.3 -6.5 33.2 1.5 33.7 3.5 35.6 Unemployment rate (avg, %) Real GDP (% yoy) 19.2 1.0 23.0 1.4 23.9 -1.0 22.1 2.6 22.0 -1.8 23.0 0.0 22.0 2.5 Nominal industrial Industrial output (% wages yoy) (% yoy) 10.0 2.5 5.0 2.1 1.5 -2.9 1.5 5.5 4.0 -6.5 5.0 1.5 4.0 3.5 Producer prices rate (avg, % yoy) Unemployment (avg, %) 12.7 19.2 14.2 23.0 5.6 23.9 3.6 22.1 1.3 22.0 2.0 23.0 3.0 22.0 Consumer prices (avg, % yoy) Nominal industrial wages (% yoy) 6.3 10.0 11.3 5.0 7.8 1.5 7.8 1.5 2.9 4.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 Consumer prices(avg, (eop,%%yoy) yoy) Producer prices 10.3 12.7 7.0 14.2 12.2 5.6 2.2 3.6 1.7 1.3 3.5 2.0 4.5 3.0 -4.9 6.3 -4.8 11.3 -6.8 7.8 -5.5 7.8 -6.6 2.9 -6.0 2.0 -4.8 4.0 43.5 10.3 44.2 7.0 55.9 12.2 58.8 2.2 68.8 1.7 75.3 3.5 78.5 4.5 -6.3 -4.9 -8.6 -4.8 -11.5 -6.8 -6.1 -5.5 -6.0 -6.6 -5.9 -6.0 -5.6 -4.8 10.0 43.5 12.1 44.2 10.9 55.9 11.2 58.8 9.9 68.8 11.4 75.3 12.0 78.5 Key economic gures Nominal GDP (EURbn) and forecasts General budget of GDP) Consumer pricesbalance (avg, % (% yoy) Public debtprices (% of (eop, GDP) % yoy) Consumer Current account General budget balance (% of GDP) Officialdebt FX reserves (EUR bn) Public (% of GDP) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Current account balance (% of GDP) EUR/RSD Official FX(avg) reserves (EUR bn) USD/RSD (avg) Gross foreign debt (% of GDP) Source: Thomson RESEARCH Raiffeisen bank a.d. Belgrade EUR/RSD (avg)Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen USD/RSD (avg) 2016f 79.8 -6.3 72.2 -8.6 81.1 -11.5 75.3 -6.1 78.3 -6.0 78.3 -5.9 75.6 -5.6 103.0 10.0 102.0 12.1 113.0 10.9 113.1 11.2 117.3 9.9 122.2 11.4 125.8 12.0 77.8 79.8 73.3 72.2 88.0 81.1 85.2 75.3 88.5 78.3 110.1 78.3 115.4 75.6 103.0 102.0 113.0 113.1 117.3 122.2 125.8 77.8 73.3 88.0 85.2 88.5 110.1 115.4 Source: Thomson Reuters, RBI/Raiffeisen RESEARCH GSS Press | August 2015 Please note the risk notications and explanations at the end of this document 29 Please note the risk notications and explanations at the end of this document 29 7 MARKET ROUNDUP ˇ Vit Cermák, Head of GSS Czech Republic CZECH REPUBLIC CDCP launched DVP settlement of primary auctions In line with the harmonization of settlement cycles in primary auctions within the EU, the Czech bond market has adopted T+2 beginning 2015. With the July auction, the CDCP has introduced a new amendment: The CDCP, together with the Ministry of Finance, have agreed on a more efficient settlement process, adopting the DVP principle in replacement to previously applied one-sided instructions. Whilst previously all primary auctions of government and corporate bonds had to be settled separately via special paper forms, CDCP members, from now on, can settle their instructions of the primary auctions deals on a DVP basis in the same way as other instructions. The Czech National Bank enters the settlement process as the primary auction administrator and matches instructions with dealers or their custodians in the CDCP. Thus, manual inputs and operational risks have been significantly mitigated without any major system impacts or additional costs for market participants. Our view DVP settlement for primary auctions is a smart and simple solution to increase market efficiency. Radek Ignatowicz, Head of GSS Poland POLAND OTC clearing in Poland Spotlight news CZ: Historical CDCP records The Czech Central Securities Registry (CDCP), a subsidiary of the Prague Stock Exchange, has announced that effective 1 July only historical data not older than 1 January 2003 can be provided. This measure is in line with the Capital Markets Act 256/2004, which stipulates duty of the central depository to keep historical data on its records for a period of 12 years after the end of the year, in which the original record had been made. The same Act stipulates a duty to report from the database upon request of authorized entities. All historical data older than 2010 has been taken over from the stateowned SCP (Stredisko cennych papiru), which was the central database of securities before the launch of the CDCP. The SCP database was acquired by the UNIVYC, a subsidiary of the Prague Stock Exchange, which was previously covering functions of settlement and clearing house in the Czech market. The first OTC derivatives transaction cleared through a CCP in the Polish market was executed at the end of May this year and clearing volumes in this asset class have been steadily growing ever since. Central clearing of OTC transactions was one of the objectives discussed by the G20 in 2009, aiming to increase transparency and limit credit risk in the OTC derivatives markets. The agreed resolutions were then converted into new regulations, Dodd Frank in the US and the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) in the EU. One of the requirements of EMIR was to lay additional requirements on Central Counterparties in order to ensure the safety of OTC transactions clearing. KDPW_CCPs was the third CCP that received authorization from ESMA, confirming its readiness to offer such clearing services. Currently, contracts denominated in Polish zloty are not subject to the clearing obligation, however, they are among the contracts that are recognized as systemically important. On 15 July, ESMA closed yet another consultation on the draft regulatory technical standards GSS Press | August 2015 8 MARKET ROUNDUP establishing a clearing obligation on additional classes of OTC interest rate derivatives that were not included in the first RTS on the clearing obligation for interest rate swaps. The additional contracts include other currency-denominated instruments which, among others, include fixed-to-float interest rate swaps and forward rate agreements denominated in PLN. Although PLN contracts are not yet required to be centrally cleared by ESMA, earlier this year the Polish FSA (PFSA) issued a recommendation to market participants encouraging them to start clearing OTC transactions through the CCP as of 1 July 2015. So far, 13 out of 15 clearing participants are active in OTC clearing. The contracts denominated in Polish zloty and cleared by KDPW_CCP are: Overnight Index Swaps (OIS), Forward Rate Agreements (FRA), Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and since its commencement there have been no issues with the service. The CCP also offers clearing Basis Swaps, REPOs and sell/buy-back transactions on Polish Treasury bonds and other services such as additional reports, trade repository reporting (as a standard). Currently, OTC transactions are offered in PLN only, however, clearing in EUR has also been developed and is currently pending for regulatory approval. Our view Until now, interest in OTC derivatives clearing conducted via KDPW_CCP has been shown by local banks solely, however, if the service achieves a critical mass, foreign participants may also express their interest, which would generate further volumes. Recent information on a possible regulatory solution regarding interoperability between CCPs in this area may also prove supportive in terms of volumes in the long run. Moreover, what is purely a large banks’ game as of now, may also evolve to include smaller banks and non-banking players. In their project, the KDPW_CCP team have foreseen, and developed, a client clearing solution, which allows a clearing member to open additional segregated or omnibus accounts for its clients who are no direct participants of the CCP. Despite the fact that no clearing member has used this service thus far, it is going to be an interesting option for banks willing to offer client clearing in the OTC space. This would take banks’ clearing services to a new, unexplored territory. Andrei Mezdrea, Head of GSS Romania ROMANIA Flexible settlement cycle on BSE The Romanian Central Securities Depository, Depozitarul Central S.A. (CSD), has announced the implementation of a more flexible settlement cycle with respect to trades performed on Bucharest Stock Exchange’s (BSE) DEAL segment. Starting 10 July, market participants can opt for T+0, T+1, or T+2 settlement cycles. The DEAL market is an auxiliary market of the regular BSE market, where transactions can be freely negotiated by the parties. DEAL is intended for trading in large volume of securities as BSE establishes a minimum transaction value for this market. GSS Press | August 2015 Spotlight news RO: Debate over Fiscal Code Earlier this year, the Romanian Government has published an updated version of the Fiscal Code, introducing several reductions of taxes and social contributions, for public consultation. The law stipulates, among other things, an ambitious reduction of the VAT (from currently 24% to 20% in 2016 and 18% in 2018), of the general tax rate (from 16% to 14% starting 2019) and of the social security contributions (from 10.5% for employees, to 7.5% and from 15.8% for employers to 13.5%, starting 2016). It has been approved by the Parliament in June and was sent to the President for promulgation. The President of Romania, Mr. Klaus Iohannis, and the main opposition party, the Liberals, have criticised the new Fiscal Code on the grounds that the proposed fiscal relaxation measures are not counterbalanced by a proper identification of financial sources to offset the impact on the forthcoming budgets. The President’s decision to return the Fiscal Code to the Parliament for re-examination can delay the promulgation of the new law but cannot stop it. We do not foresee major changes being adopted by the ruling majority following to the re-examination process. 9 MARKET ROUNDUP The main characteristics of these types of trades are the following: - For DEAL trades with the same settlement date as the trade date (T+0), the trades shall be confirmed within same date, but no later than 14:45 pm*; - For DEAL trades with settlement date T+1 and T+2, participants shall change the implicit gross settlement session (1st gross settlement session, S1), the latest on Settlement Day - 1, 8:15* pm for 2nd (S2), 3rd (S3) and 4th (S4) gross settlement session; - For DEAL trades with settlement date T+0, participants shall change the implicit gross settlement session (S1), the latest on settlement date, 1:05* pm for S3 and S4; - All DEAL trades with settlement date registered at DC after 1:05 pm*, shall be settled in S4. *local time – EET hours Participants could either operate themselves the change of gross settlement session or send instructions to DC, requesting DC to perform the change in their name. The cut-off times for sending instructions to CSD are: - For DEAL trades with settlement date T+1 and T+2, the latest on D-1, 8:15 pm; - For DEAL trades with settlement date T, the latest on D, 12:55 pm. The DC’s risk management rules do not apply for DEAL trades settled on gross basis. Our view Flexible settlement cycles could boost the trading volumes shortly, while they function as additional instruments for CSD‘s settlement risk management alternatively. Implementation of AIFMD With a delay of over two years from the EU transposition deadline (22 July 2013), the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) no. 2011/61/EU has been finally transposed into Romanian legislation with the publication of Law No. 74/2015. Spotlight news HR: EU family member since 2 years By accessing the EU and integrating into the single European market, Croatia has made strong progress. During the first two years of membership, there have been obvious changes in almost all segments of the economy. With foreign direct investments of around HRK 3 bn, the investment climate has improved while tourism and industrial production have indicated great results against the previous year. Citizens’ personal consumption has been growing for nine months in a row, which has not been registered since 2007. The positive effects are reflected in the ESI (European Stability Initiative) index, which scores 121.8 points and confirms the improving trend over the last few months. The Romanian Financial Supervision Authority (FSA) is the designated competent authority for AIFM supervision and it is the FSA’s responsibility to issue secondary legislation detailing the requirements for both alternative investment funds and their managers. In mid-July, the FSA has approved Regulation no. 10/2015, addressing the functioning of alternative investment funds’ managers, while the rules for alternative investment funds authorization and functioning are still missing. Local investment managers and professional associations are intensively lobbying for the completion of the secondary legislation, as the industry is impacted by new rules which need to be absorbed by the market in an even shorter period due to local authorities’ delay in transposition of European obligation into national laws. Please be advised that the most important issuers on the Romanian market (e.g. Fondul Proprietatea and the five SIFs) are also impacted by AIFMD’s strict regulations. Our view Along with changes imposed by the AIFM Directive, Romanian firms have been given an important opportunity to keep up with European competitors. While the delay is significant in the Romanian case, the winners will not just be those who meet the deadline, but those who have efficiently planned for the changes in order to operate in a more competitive and profitable way. GSS Press | August 2015 10 MARKET ROUNDUP Bogdana Yefremova, Head of GSS Ukraine UKRAINE Privatization: ready for take-off In 2015- 2017, the Cabinet of Ministers plans to sell 302 stateowned entities. The main targets include Centerenergo (energydistributing company), the Odessa port plant, 6 regional energy companies and other corporations covering energy, oil, agriculture, transportation, stevedoring, gas, construction, chemicals. Minority stakes (below 50%) will be sold through the local stock exchanges, while buyers of the controlling holdings will be approached exclusively through open auctions. The State Property Fund plans to invite investment banks for advisory in an effort to extend the list of potential buyers as well as to facilitate the process. Currently, the companies on the list shall undergo the process of pre-sale preparation. Where necessary, the entities will be converted into joint-stock companies. According to the government’s strategic plan, all state-owned companies will be transformed within 3 years: the process shall begin with the companies identified for privatization and those with considerable fiscal risks. Referring to government officials, Ukraine has not seen such a large-scale privatization in 10 years. The idea is to attract high-quality foreign investment to the public sector, rather than selling the assets at dumping prices to former Ukrainian oligarchs. Companies registered in off-shore zones, prosecuted by FATF, belonging to persons and entities from sanction lists, as well as companies with a government stake of 25% and above, will not be admitted to the privatization process. Disclosure of final beneficiaries of a potential buyer will be another important pre-condition for participation. Our view Privatization will attract investors. The state-owned strategic enterprises badly need modernization of their fixed assets and new technologies – something the government has no resources for. Transferring the entities into private ownership should cover these necessities and help the enterprises strengthen their competitiveness against the global economy. GSS Press | August 2015 11 CITY BREAK Belgrade: Where the Sava meets the Danube Not many cities can boast of being situated on the confluence of two great rivers, the Danube and the Sava. This unique geographic location provided the backdrop to a place that has been alive for several thousand years, witnessing rampaging and destruction on a large scale throughout its history, but always vital enough to rise from its ashes like Phoenix. Some of the landmarks of downtown Belgrade include the busy Knez Mihajlova Street, the central pedestrian area lined with shops, cafes and galleries, the Cathedral Church of St. Michael the Archangel, the National Theater and the National Museum. Following its fate, from the medieval independent Serbian state through several centuries of Ottoman rule, bordering on the AustroHungarian Empire, up to the latest unfolding of events in recent history, it is no wonder Belgrade is considered to be the European gateway where the East meets the West. Skadarlija, a charming cobbled street that is the former bohemian quarter where famous Serbian poets and artists used to gather regularly, is now the place to visit some of the more traditional Serbian restaurants. The imposing Temple of St. Sava is a hallmark of Belgrade’s skyline, as it is the largest Orthodox temple in this part of the world. The city can trace its roots back to the ancient Scordisc tribes that settled in this area well before Roman times and called the place Sindidun, the earliest recorded name of the settlement that was to become Belgrade. Ada Ciganlija lake, perfect for a day out, has a huge park providing various sports opportunities. Alternatively, you can engage in lazy sunbathing and peoplewatching in the many cafes. Pobednik – The Victorious Kalemegdan fortress represents the heart of the military compound from where the city slowly spread through centuries. The monument of “The Victorious“ is the perfect spot where you can see an aerial view of the confluence. Today, Kalemegdan hosts the Military Museum, contemporary art gallery “Cvijeta Zuzorić“, the Belgrade Zoo, a small natural history museum, as well as sports courts and a beautiful park. Witness to the eclectic mix that makes up modern-day Belgrade, Zemun municipality shows a different historical background. As the former southernmost tip of the AustroHungarian Empire, it was officially added to Belgrade city area only in 1918, after the First World War. With its unique charm and the picturesque Danube waterfront lined with lounge cafes and exclusive restaurants, it gives off a special chillout vibe, attracting both locals and tourists. GSS Press | August 2015 Some of my top picks for a decent business lunch: Kalemegdanska terasa Kalemegdan Franš Bulevar oslobođenja 18a Dijagonala Skerlićeva 6 Gandolfini Nikola Tesla Boulevard 3 (Zemun) The cultural hub of this part of Europe Belgrade has a very rich and varied cultural scene throughout the year, showcasing a number of festivals. In recent years, the city made its name with the exceptionally vibrant night life scene that had some of the most prominent international media highlight it as a place not to be missed by clubbers. Both the Danube and the Sava river banks are lined with popular boat restaurants that add a special attraction to nights out. Katarina Gaborovic´ Head of Marketing and PR Department Raiffeisen banka a.d. 12 HAVE YOU MET It’s all about the team Ivana Novaković, Head of GSS Serbia, provides an insight into her profession Where did you start your professional career? My first employment as an apprentice banker was at the National Bank of Yugoslavia in 1999. I moved on to the National Savings Bank Belgrade (today: Eurobank Serbia), where I had the opportunity to get acquainted with the world of securities. Custody was a completely new banking service then, introduced by the Law on Financial Market in November 2003. My colleagues at Raiffeisen a.d. Serbia were the first on the market to obtain a custody license in 2004 and built the custody operation from scratch. I was lucky enough to join a professional team and to learn all about the custody business, about treasury sales and investment banking. What do you like about your job? And what do you find difficult? I really like everything about the securities services business, particularly being in contact with clients and striving for the best solutions in their interest. I believe that where there is a will there is a way, even when this means to overcome occasional local administration gaps. Experienced international and local teams are our key to success. What are the biggest potentials you see for your market? Foreign capital inflow plays a significant role in the financing of the Serbian economy. After 2000 this inflow has notably intensified. Major growth in foreign capital was recorded in 2006/2007, mainly triggered by the privatization process, after which it started to decrease, except for the year 2011. On the Regulated Market GSS Press | August 2015 the average share turnover more than tripled in 2011 while the average number of trades was nearly 7 times bigger. I like to remember when we launched the ToB for Nis a.d. Novi Sad for our client Gazpromneft in early 2011. This deal was specific due to the fact that, for the first time, shares of a public company were subject of a ToB and at the same time a huge number of shareholders (4.5 mn) was qualified for this ToB, which is unique in the Serbian market. In the same year we were mandated to organize four ToBs simultaneously for our client Delta Maxi. These four ToBs came as a result of the purchase of 100% of Delta Maxi by Belgian Delhaize Group, which was one of the most important investments in the Serbian economy in 2011. In fact, we have done all major take overs (Telenor, Stada, Strabag...). The current privatization process will be finished with a tender for privatization of the state-owned Telekom Serbia. Given the experience with the shares of NIS, an upward trend can be expected, along with positive impulses for the Serbian capital market. How do you spend your spare time? People say that you cannot see the top of the mountain as long as you are in the valley, so I like climbing up the mountains for skiing with my family and friends. And I try to visit a new city every year. Doubtlessly, the best investment is traveling and learning more about different cultures, habits and mentalities, which opens up new perspectives. What is your favourite place in your city? Hard to decide whether I prefer the streets on Dorćol with their historic heritage or the ancient Savamala area, where you can watch open air theatre plays, visit designer markets, go in for ice-skating, have a nice dinner, or listen to stand-up comedy at Ban Akiba. Also, I really enjoy cycling near the two rivers Danube and Sava all the way to Ada Lake. Overall, Belgrade offers a variety of choices for everyone, from the beautiful Kalemegdan fortress via downtown’s Knez Mihajlova main street to the charming Kosančićev Venac and Dorćol neighborhoods. Not to forget, Belgrade’s hedonist quarter, Skadarlija was a hot spot for poets and artists in the late 19th and early 20th century. It connects the Republic square with the Skadarlija (Bajloni) market, one of the largest in the city centre. Indeed, a fine place to try local food and feel the atmosphere. 13 CONTACT US GSS Central Team Raiffeisen Bank International AG Am Stadtpark 9 1030 Vienna, Austria www.rbinternational.com Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy Head of GSS attila.szalay-berzeviczy@rbinternational.com Phone: +43 1 71707-8252 Jürgen Sattler Head of GSS Regional Management juergen.sattler@rbinternational.com Phone: +43 1 71707-1882 Bettina Janoschek Head of GSS Sales & Relationship Management bettina.janoschek@rbinternational.com Phone: +43 1 71707-1820 Austria Raiffeisen Bank International AG Am Stadtpark 9 1030 Vienna, Austria Anita Fröch Head of GSS Austria anita.froech@rbinternational.com Phone: +43 1 71707-3040 www.rbinternational.com Albania Raiffeisen Bank Sh.a. “European Trade Center” Bulevardi “Bajram Curri” Tirana Mirela Borici Head of GSS Albania mirela.borici@raiffeisen.al Phone: +355 4 2381000-1074 www.raiffeisen.al Belarus Priorbank JSC 31-A, V. Khoruzhey Str. 220002 Minsk Yury Dorofey Head of GSS Belarus yury.dorofey@priorbank.by Phone: +375 17 2899102 www.priorbank.by Bosnia and Herzegovina Raiffeisen BANK d.d. Bosna i Hercegovina Zmaja od Bosne bb 71000 Sarajevo Draženko Bobaš Head of GSS Bosnia drazenko.bobas@rbb-sarajevo.raiffeisen.at Phone: +387 33 287-153 www.raiffeisenbank.ba GSS Press | August 2015 Bulgaria Russia Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD 55, Nicola Vaptzarov Blvd., Business Center Expo 2000, 1407 Sofia Maria Lazova Head of GSS Bulgaria maria.lazova@raiffeisen.bg Phone: +359 2 91985-463 www.rbb.bg AO Raiffeisenbank Smolenskaya-Sennaya Sq. 28 119020 Moscow Evgenia Klimova Head of GSS Russia evgenia.klimova@raiffeisen.ru Phone: +7-495-721 9900 www.raiffeisen.ru Croatia Serbia Raiffeisenbank Austria d.d. Petrinjska 59 10000 Zagreb Mensur Hodžic´ Head of GSS Croatia mensur.hodzic@rba.hr Phone: +385 1 6174-327 www.rba.hr Raiffeisen banka a.d. Djordja Stanojevica 16 11070 Novi Beograd Ivana Novakovic´ Head of GSS Serbia ivana.novakovic@raiffeisenbank.rs Phone: +381 11 2207572 www.raiffeisenbank.rs Czech Republic Slovakia Head of GSS Czech Republic vit.cermak@rb.cz Phone: +420 234 40-1481 www.rb.cz Tatra banka, a.s. Hodžovo námestie 3 81106 Bratislava Peter Uhrin Head of GSS Slovakia peter_uhrin@tatrabanka.sk Phone: +421-2-5919 2134 www.tatrabanka.sk Hungary Slovenia Raiffeisen Bank Zrt. Akadémia utca 6 1054 Budapest Zsuzsanna Haraszti Head of GSS Hungary zsuzsa.haraszti@raiffeisen.hu Phone: +361 484 4362 www.raiffeisen.hu Raiffeisen Banka d.d. Zagrebška cesta 76 2000 Maribor ˇˇ Primož Kovacic Head of GSS Slovenia primoz.kovacic@raiffeisen.si Phone: +386 22293119 www.raiffeisen.si Poland Ukraine Raiffeisenbank a.s. Hvezdova 1716/2b 14078 Prague 4 ˇ Vit Cermák Raiffeisen Bank Polska S.A. (Raiffeisen Polbank) Piękna 20 Str. 00-549 Warsaw Radek Ignatowicz Head of GSS Poland radoslaw.ignatowicz@raiffeisen.pl Phone: +48 22 585-2000 www.raiffeisen.pl Raiffeisen Bank Aval JSC 9, Leskova Str. 01011 Kiev Bogdana Yefremova Head of GSS Ukraine Bogdana.Yefremova@aval.ua Phone: +380 44 49879 32 www.aval.ua Romania Raiffeisen Bank S.A. 246C Calea Floreasca 014476 Bucharest 1 Andrei Mezdrea Head of GSS Romania andrei.mezdrea@raiffeisen.ro Phone: +40 21 30612-89 www.raiffeisen.ro 14 IMPRINT & DISCLAIMER Imprint 1) Information requirements pursuant to the Austrian E-Commerce Act Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Registered Office: Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna. 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In respect of the sale or purchase of securities, investments or financial products, your banking advisor can provide individualised advice which is suitable for investments and financial products. This analysis is fundamentally based on generally available information and not on confidential information which the party preparing the document has obtained exclusively on the basis of his/her client relationship with a person. Unless otherwise expressly stated in this publication, the publisher deems all of the information to be reliable, but does not make any assurances regarding its accuracy and completeness. The publisher shall not have any liability for any representations (expressed or implied) regarding information contained in, or for any omissions from, this document or any other written or oral communications transmitted to the recipient in the course of its preparation. The information in this publication is current, as of the creation date of the document. It may be outdated by future developments, without the publication being changed. The data and statements contained in this document are strictly limited to the matters stated herein and shall not to be read as extending by implication to any other matter. This document is intended for institutional investors only. Neither this document nor any part of its content may be relied upon by any other person. This document is not intended for retail/private investors. Requests resulting from this document will only be responded to, if the respective person is an institutional investor. GSS Press | August 2015 15 ATTILA‘S PHOTO BLOG PHOTO OF THE MONTH by Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy Novak Djokovic (vs. Roger Federer) at the US Open semi final Flushing Meadows, September 2011 Upcoming Events SIBOS 12-15 October, Singapore NEMA Americas 27-28 October, Miami GSS Press | August 2015 16