Pequeno resumo da história dos humanos. As próximas gerações

Pequeno resumo da história dos humanos. As próximas gerações darão conta do recado? João S. Furtado 15junho2015 Os hominídeos desceram das árvores, há pelo menos 7 milhões de anos atrás. Foram capazes de ficar de pé e caminhar com as duas pernas. O grupo engloba chipanzés, gorilas, orangotangos e ... melhor não se chocar ... os humanos antigos e os atuais. Nós, os Homo sapiens. Lucy foi a fêmea hominídea, com 1,20 de altura, que se tornou a personagem mais famosa, até o momento, na história biológica da humanidade. O nome foi inspirado na música dos Bettles “Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds”, sucesso mundial na ocasião da descoberta do fóssil, em 1974. Lucy viveu há cerca de 3,8-­‐4 milhões de anos e foi considerada o grande tesouro arqueológico e antropológico, para os humanos atuais. Os fósseis de nós, os homo sapiens, foram datados de 200.000-­‐150.000 anos atrás. Porém, há “primos” longínquos, na escala de tempo, que viveram entre 2,8 milhões e 1 milhão de anos e utilizavam tecnologia para produzir artefatos de pedra. Além desses, há outros “parentes” primitivos. O homem neandertal foi o último. Habitou a Europa, há 350.000 anos e desapareceu há cerca de 30.000 anos. Conviveram com os sapiens em cavernas, durante pelo menos 40.000 anos com quem se cruzaram: 99,7% do DNA de neandertais estão presentes nas pessoas que circulam por aí. Por 100.000 anos os humanos sapiens viveram na Idade da pedra. Organizaram-­‐se em tribos e vilas, mantidos pela caça e por colheitas e se comunicavam através de linguagem. Continuaram em cavernas naturais ou subterrâneas, até cerca de 10.000 anos, com o início da Civilização antiga. Adotaram organização social sob a forma de Estado, cidade ou reino. Desenvolveram assentamentos agrícolas e, há 4.400 anos, passaram a se comunicar pela escrita. Surgiu, assim o processo civilizatório, com o desenvolvimento de habilidades, tecnologias e a capacidade para lidar com símbolos, idiomas e diferentes modos de expressar artes e comportamentos. A Era moderna iniciou-­‐se há 1.000 anos, com a concepção do modelo Estado-­‐Nação, o sistema de industrialização e a expansão da imprensa, graças à invenção da palavra impressa, em 1440, apesar da gravação da escrita na Pedra de Roseta ter acontecido no século 196 Antes de Cristo. O grande salto da humanidade aconteceu na Fase ou era planetária, com os movimentos de governança global, globalização da economia, a Internet, no final do ano de 1969 e a criação da WWW, a World Wide Web, em 1992. Nos últimos 60 anos, os humanos sapientes inventaram e aperfeiçoaram aeronaves, jatos, foguetes, viagens espaciais, rádio, telefone, TV. Nos últimos 30 anos, surgiram transistores, microcomputadores, microchips, sondas espaciais, radiotelescópio, Internet. Nos finais 5 anos, grandes avanços em robótica, tecnologia de informação e comunicação, inteligência artificial, armazenamento de dados e comunicação virtual, Internet móvel, transmissão em massa de dados e informações online, computação em nuvem, equipamentos e serviços inteligentes (smarts), Internet de coisas, impressora 3D, rastreamento e localização à distância (GPS), chips implantados, avanços em biotecnologia e nanotecnologia, células de energia, energia renovável, genes sintéticos, células tronco, pele sintética, eletricidade sem fio, e tantos outros. Os inventos futurísticos incluem: ecossistemas e bioquímica alternativos, elevador espacial, robôs inteligentes, download da memória pessoal (leitura da mente), homem multitúdino (engenharia genética sintética e cibernética com inteligência artificial), organismos smarts, organismos coletivos, embriões sob medida (customizados), máquinas conscientes, vida no ciberespaço, mundo virtual, e mais. Quem viver, verá! Mas, assustador, não? http://www.futurizon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/singularitydarkage.pdf
Ian Pearson
Singularitarian utopia
or a new dark age?
www.futurizon.com
The singularity
• Some illustrations of the enormous
potential first, then some examples of
how adding a high level of ambient
stupidity might mean we might make a
mess of it
The singularity
(critical level positive feedback in technology development)
Invention curve can
Implementation
go almost vertical
rate is limited
Tech level
Exponent increases rapidly
as tech improves,
especially as AI kicks in
Normal tech progress
2000
2020
2040
Main driver is NBIC Convergence
(nano-bio-info-cogno)
Nanotech gives
us tiny devices
Tiny sensors help
neuroscience figure
out how the mind
works
Insights from
neuroscience feed into
machine intelligence
Biotech and IT advances
make body and machine
connectable
Improving machine
intelligence
accelerates R&D in
every sphere
Elemental Resources
 Better supply as we discover more and
reach into space
 Materials tech development means we
will need less raw material and have a
range of potential substitutes
 Better recycling means elements mainly
just move around
Global land management
With increasing global
wealth, we need to
make more effort to
use limited land on the
basis of global needs.
Physical
infrastructure
Use farmland to grow
food. Use deserts to Nature
collect energy.
Housing
Energy
Could feed up to 20Bn
people or return some
land to nature.
Food
Doom-mongers are wrong, again!
 Increasing population increases supply of intelligence and






solutions faster than demand
Energy shortage is a short to mid term problem
We can produce more of everything than people need
Clean water will be plentiful
We will also need less and waste less.
Long term pollution will decline
Real problems are short term, and some of those come
from policies created by doom-mongers, such as biofuels
and energy poverty
A better world
via cheap energy
Tissue-cultured meat
Shale gas
Thorium
Fusion
Solar farms
….
All-electric
transport
Water production
Landfill
mining
Galileo
Potential for space too
Space elevator
Tourism
Ark 1
Asteroid mining
30km high graphene structures
Vacuum-filled columns made of
hierarchical mesh/tape/cross
members. 30km Earth version
can be made lighter than air for
most of the height, and could be
erected like growing grass, by
adding to members at ground
rather than at top, enabling
easy erection and super-tall
structures. Graphene foam
could be lighter than helium and
used as buoyancy aid.
Moon version could be over
150km high.
plan
Tubular wall structure
platform
Graphene sheet
43o
C nanotube fill
Graphene
ribbon wrap
vacuum
Tension member
seal
member structure
IT progress so far
But it isn’t
over yet!!!
Electronic jewellery
Bring your own kit 2.0
Social status
Medical
monitoring,
alarms
Communication,
data distribution
Networking
Digital image
augmentation
Any
form
Sensing
Mobile
website
Digital bubble
Decoration
Identification,
security
Tribal signalling
Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to jewellery size. Combinations
of devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.
Display evolution
Large wall displays, street ads, coffee table displays, digital windows, recipe tablets etc
The more personal displays become, the more opportunity they present
Active contact lens
(Pearson 1991)
laser
focusing
micromirror
lasers
Gaze direction sensor
 Resolution limited by the eye
 Allows natural distance perception
 Tiny environmental footprint
Laser
Processing
retina
Laser
Micromirror Inductive
power
supply
Gaze
direction
sensor
Comms
& ctrl
Diamond
Laser substrate
Casual displays
Program an image on a cheap
display by touch. Could have lots
of reusable card displays all over
your house or office.
Finger can transmit electrical
power and 2Mb/s data, 1 second
contact for a decent photo, with a
networked wristband or hand held
device as the data and power
source.
Virtualisation as happiness amplifier
 People, buildings and
objects can emit an
interactive digital ‘aura’
 Hi-res, 3D information
overlays for email, leisure,
socialisation, navigation etc
 Dual appearance
– Can blend games into real
world
– You can choose how you
appear
– Everyone can see the world
differently
– Fight off aliens while your
partner chooses an outfit.
Gel computing
Processing
Power
Sensing
Dual core
48 core
comms
Storage
Single core
Quad core
LED Rx
D
i
g
i
t
a
l
Massively multiple
core-multiple chip
Self-organisation used with
AI-controlled evolution to
build circuit/function
libraries and eventually
strong AI
Sensor
Sensor
Digital &
Analog
Large number of capsules suspended in gel using
free-space comms to link up to form ad-hoc circuitry
OB1 - optical brain mk1
A conscious computer
1 trillion neurons in 100ml gel
1 billion times more powerful than brain, with up to
2 million emotions & unlimited senses
Could be fully sentient
Could be benign or malicious
Could be linked to other devices via the net
Gel
Optical ‘hormone’
playback
Sensory
echo
Neural interference
processing vortex
Sensory stimulus
Internal sensing
sensory
encoding
Neural
response
neural vortex
generation
Smart cells
could exist in both real world and cyberspace
Custom
DNA
1 micron
Molecular circuitry
assembled by cell
Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make
sophisticated self organising circuits
Active skin – the body as IT platform
Epidermis
Wearable layer
Detachable layer
Transfer layer
Mid-term layer Skin
Permanent layer
Dermis
Skin-based electronics can link blood
chemistry and nerve signals to
external computers and systems
Even thought
recognition is
starting to
appear now
Emotiv Epoc headset
for computer games
20
IQ and sensory enhancement
and electronic immortality
Billions of tiny sensors linked to every
synapse, signalling activity to external
replica and able to recreate signals
generated by external replica
Billions of smart bacteria with synthetic
neurons replicating behaviour of every
individual neuron but able to run at much
higher speeds and with connectivity to
net and other brains.
Sensory enhancement
Magnetic field
Radiation (EM or nuclear)
Magnetic field
External sensors
Wearable sensors
Detachable sensors
Implanted sensors
Audio
Temperature
Location
Input
Proximity
Sensory
translation
unit
Video
Output
Heat or vibration
Sound
Pain or pleasure
Chemical or
microbiological presence
New senses
Data
Pollutants
Alarms
Telemetry
Monitors
Logs
Control
systems
Messaging
How close can you get?
2010: Can touch
2020 can link dreams
2025: Can link nervous systems
2040: Can link brains
2050:Can share enhanced
consciousness in machine
2060: can share bodies too
2075: can merge completely
Dream linking
Dream state is detected in each
person and then appropriate
imagery and sound created in
both headsets by computer.
Ongoing detection of thoughts
and emotions during dream
influences choice of material.
The Borg, 2075-2200
A global environment linking together
all the minds of people and
sentient machines in a global
consciousness
Medium
Shared consciousness & awareness
Shared personalities
Link nervous systems together
Body sharing
Fuzzy boundaries between people
Post-organic life
Under 40s might live forever
As brain add-ons and IQ, memory
and sensory upgrades account for
an ever-increasing proportion of your
mind’s capability and content, death
of the organic body becomes just an
inconvenience. You may simply buy
an android, upload and carry on.
Repliee, Osaka University,
lots of descendants now
By then you may have spawned
numerous replicas. Which are you?
OK, so: What will your next body look like? How
many will you have? Will you be willing to share?
Human-machine Convergence
homo erectus
homo sapiens
homo sapiens ludditus
Homo
habilis
homo
optimus
homo sapiens
neanderthalensis
homo
zombius?
homo hybridus
homo
cyberneticus
homo
machinus
robotus
multitudinus
robotus
primus
Gaia
sapiens
Sims sapiens
Bacteria sapiens
Today
- 1.5M years
- 125,000 years
- 750,000 years
- 40,000 years
150 years
50 years
100 years
Organic resources
Gaia 2.0
We may have to
help fix, rebuild or
even recreate
damaged organic
resources such as
Natural world,
fisheries and
including
rainforests
Mk 1 humans
Make new organisms &
Ecosystems
Alternative biochemistry
NBIC enabled
organisms,
including
transhumans
Blurred
boundary
Cyberspace life,
including conscious
machines
Panda 2.0
Enhance mating desire. Add
fertility sensors, GPS
location and dating sites so
that Pandas can find
suitable mates at the right
times. Adjust discrimination
levels so that potential
mates are less fussy.
Making other organisms smart
Biotechnology
Hybrid animal brains
that contain synthetic
processing and
memory but exist
and compete in both
natural world and
cyberspace
Smart mice, chimps,
dogs, cats, worms?
Nanotechnology
Artificial
Intelligence
Smart bacteria
could exist in both real world and cyberspace
Custom
DNA
1 micron
Molecular circuitry
assembled by cell
Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make
sophisticated self organising circuits
E-bay-bies?
Machine-designed
humans
sentience
Optional genetic
Assembly
Physical birth
Human
equivalence
DNA mix
digital
conception
Computer
Simulation
E-birth
Parents can be of any
gender
0
2010
2030
2050
2070
How long will it be before it will be considered irresponsible not to
genetically enhance your kids?
At what stage of electronic emulation or genetic assembly does a child
become legally human?
AI evolution
 AIs will have their own




cultures and civilisation that
will cross fertilise with ours
Sims will get much smarter!
Some AIs will migrate from
cyberspace into the real world
Some people might move into
cyberspace – retirement or
suicide?
Cyberspace fauna and flora
The Sims, EA Games
But is all of this progress?




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Starting to get scary isn’t it?
Who gets to decide how far we go?
Do you trust them?
Should we allow sentient beings in computer
games to be controlled by children?
How long will it be before ‘Robot Wars’
transforms into an android version of the
Roman Coliseum with synthetic blood?
Increasing danger from technology
Probability of
extinctionlevel event per
year
1%
0.5%
ETA for tech-enabled extinction is
2085
Via Pandemics, NBIC accidents or
weapons, AI, climatic instability, or
100s of variants
1M BC
1950
today
2050
Perhaps we don’t see aliens because they all wipe themselves out within 300 years of discovering radio!
Terminator scenario?
V
If we create smarter-than-man machines, we risk extinction.
Even if they are not malign, we may end up in the same
bargaining position as ants on a building site.
If we can enhance or link human brain to the same level of
intelligence, then such a capability gap will not occur.
We need a good brain-machine link before we can safely make
smarter-than-man machines
2025: Smart yogurt: Self-organising
smart bacteria, WMD x 2
Can use chemical gradients to self-organise components
into very complex structures
Smart bacteria could use cloud computing to re-design
their offspring, thereby adapting to any environment,
destroying all other life and terraforming Earth
Smart bacteria could control minds of people infected,
enslaving them and making them into zombies
Espionage
35nm tech means 200M transistors/mm2.
Small specks of smart dust can be concealed anywhere
e.g. sand or dirt, passed on by handshake, or dust settling from the air,
in food, seeds, gravel or in clothes, stick to shoes. Air conditioning
is a new security risk
Even coins or banknotes could be used to hide devices to monitor,
record and transmit activity
Ant: 10mm
Human vision limit: 0.1mm
Apple 2 computer needs 0.015mm
0.25MB memory chips: 0.05mm
Parallel web: Sponge nets
Wireless links
Wireless LAN link
to web and
between clusters
Laptops
Tablets
Smart phones
Displays
Digital jewellery
Beacons
Street furniture
Custom devices
Smart clothing
Active skin
Direct inter-device networking will become an important
alternative internet platform. May be popular 1984 defense.
Will
tribalism
increase?
Local
govt
Geographic
World
Community
Networks
Cyberspace
Network
Communities
Global
government
Social world
Geographic
tribalism
Tribalism is built in
to human nature
and fits the web
perfectly. Political
power is migrating
onto the web.
Government is
trying to block
anonymity to slow
the slide.
Values
tribalism
Urban tribes
City A
City B
City C
Real World
Tribe X
Tribe Y
Tribe Z
Cyberspace
People may belong to many
tribes, according to their
professional roles, hobbies,
social groups and political
preferences. Each may
have its own tribal symbols
and uniforms that can be
displayed virtually even
when physical appearance
can’t be altered.
Appearance can be
determined by dynamic
group interaction, location
and other contextual
parameters.
The Stepford Society
impossible for law- abiding people to commit an
offence, while criminals do as they please
Road tolling via satellite tracking
Government knows everywhere you go
Speed cameras everywhere
Extensive & permanent police records
DNA Databases
Anti-tech
backlash
Identity cards
Smart meters
One stop shop for all government data
Monitoring of all comms
Number-plate recognition
25% of the world’s CCTV
Abuse of Millimetre wave cameras
Face recognition systems
Direct control of network capability
Tax enforcement via integrated databases
Speed limits built into car management systems
Criminals will bypass all the rules with stolen phones, LCD plates, ID theft…
Criminals will have total freedom, we will have none
1984 is here albeit a bit late
If you aren’t free to do the wrong thing, you aren’t free at all!
Search engines
Social net
monitoring Web tracking Smart-phone
disabling
ISP logs
Blogs
Electronic cash
Average speed
Identity cards
cameras
CCTV
Secrecy for leaders
Random walk of values
 Religious texts used to act as a fixed




reference for ethical values
Secular society has no fixed reference point
so values oscillate quickly.
20 years can yield 180o shift
e.g. euthanasia, sexuality, abortion, animal
rights, genetic modification, nuclear energy,
family, policing, teaching, authority…
Pressure to conform reinforces relativism at
the expense of intellectual rigour
Isms are religion substitutes
anti-capitalism
animal rights
environmentalism
warmism
feeling of
inner worth
fitness
political
correctness
pacifism
vegetarianism
People have a strong need to feel they are ‘good’. Some of today’s
ideological subscriptions are essentially secular substitutes for religion,
and demand same suspension of free thinking and logical reasoning.
The Spanish Inquisition spotlight
Racial
Gay
Abortion
equality equality Animal
rights
rights
Female
Religious
equality Global
??
???
freedom
equality
Attitudes
PC Max Gender Carbon to crime
Equality use
Dark Age Pressures
Anti-science
Rebellion
Moral relativism
Rejection of
authority
Care economy
Need to feel good
Age of magic
Rise of AI
Abdication of
Emotionalism
personal
Decline in free-thinking
responsibility
IT enablers for the Dark Age
Wikipedia
Blogs
Search engines
Positioning
Memory stick nets
Chat rooms
Virtual environments
Context engines
Virtual communities
Digital
bubbles, ego
badges etc
Dilution of knowledge
Ignorance
Knowledge
Knowledge
New
dark age
Anti-knowledge
1000
1900
2000
2050
In pursuit of social compliance, we are told to believe things that are known to be false.
With clever enough spin, people accept them and become worse than ignorant
The wiki economy –
beginning of the end
Information quality
high
Wikipedia
Professional
Level of enthusiasm of
professional elite to
contribute
low
Gradually almost every kind of information became available free on the
net. Quality rises for a while but eventually declines because
genuine incentives to contribute reduce, while corrupted incentives increase.
Time
The rise of nonsense
Nonsense beliefs
e.g. new age, alternative medicine,
alternative science, 21stC piety,
political correctness
Mainstream beliefs
e.g. science, mainstream religions
2010
2015
2020
2025
The age of magic
 “Any sufficiently advanced technology is

indistinguishable from magic”, Arthur C
Clarke
As technology becomes both invisible and too
hard to understand, it has a real danger of
becoming like magic to many people, with
damaging effects on the relationship between
people and engineers
The age of magic –
professional elite is shrinking
Fashion
Celebrity
Professional
knowledge
TV Culture
Sport
Games
1% hold all
useful knowledge
Scientists need to guard against
becoming too fond of their power and
abusing it as 21st century high priests
Chat VEs….
99% only well
informed on trivia
On Balance?
Slight improvement?
Losses
Wins
Health
Wealth
Fun
Empowerment
Growth
Control
Surveillance
Oppression
Directionless
Terrorism
Thank you
idpearson@gmail.com
www.futurizon.com
twitter.com/timeguide
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