Kebijakan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara

Kebijakan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara

Connectivity and Infrastructure
towards
Sustainable Agriculture Development
Mahendra Siregar
Vice Minister of Finance, Republic of Indonesia
1
The economy in 2011:New historical high
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
GPD per capita: US$ 3,542.9
Total GDP: US$854 bn
Growth rate: 6.5%
Exports: US$ 203.6 bn
Budget deficit to GDP: 1.3%
Debt to GDP: 24%
Tax and non-tax revenue: Rp1,196 Trillion
As a result: Return to Investment Grade!
2
Crisis Mitigation in Budget 2012
Budget allocated for macroeconomic risk 
Rp15,8T;
Budget allocated for social expenditures (PNPM,
PKH, Public health and natural disasters  Rp47,8T ;
Budget allocated for non energy subsidy  Rp40,3T
Rice reserves for the poor  Rp2,0T;
927065-004
3
To maintain fiscal sustainability
1. Optimization of State revenue
2. Increasing Quality spending by increasing
Infrastructure spending
Rp Triliun
150
149,3
130
110
93,4
78,9
90
70,0
70
54,0
50,0
50
23,7
30
10
-10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
K/L
Poverty
Growth
4. Decreasing debt ratio to GDP
7.000
Triliun rupiah
3. Controlling deficit within secure level (<3% PDB)
Unemloyment
%
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
6.000
50%
47%
39%
35%
5.000
40%
33%
28%
4.000
26%
25%
3.000
30%
20%
2.000
10%
1.000
-
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011F
PDB
Outstanding Utang
Rasio Utang thd. PDB [RHS]
Trend of Policy:
 Optimization of state
revenue that considering
entrepreunership
climate;
 Increase efficiency &
effectivity of government
expenditure through
increase quality spending.
Increase infrastructure
expenditure which is
followed by increase in
economic
growth, declining
unemployment rate, and
poverty alleviation;
 Controlling deficit within
secure level under 3%
GDP;
 Reduce debt gradually
and seek low risk
financing source.
4
I-Account Budget 2012
Internati
onal
Rp42,9T
(4,2%)
Property
Tax
Rp35,6T
(3,5%)
Excise
Rp75,4T
(7,3%)
Macro Assumptions
Other
tax
Rp5,6T
(0,5%)
Natural
Resources
Rp177,3T
(63,8%)
Non tax
Revenue
Rp280,0T
(21,2%)
Tax Revenue
Rp1.032,6 T
(78,7%)
VAT Rp352,9T
(34,2%)
Income Tax
Rp520,0T
(50,4%)
SOE
Rp28,0T
(10,1%)
Revenue : Rp1.311,4 T
BUDGET
Other non
tax revenue
Rp50,3T
(19,2%)
BLU
Rp19,2T
(6,9%)
Hibah
Rp0,8T
(0,1%)
Expenditure : Rp1.435,4 T
Deficit : Rp124,0T
(1,5% PDB)
Personnel
Rp215,9T
(22,4%)
Financing :
Rp124,0T
Non-Debt
Minus Rp9,5T
(-7,7%)
Debt
Rp133,6T
(107,7%)
Transfer to
Region
Rp470,4T
(32,8%)
Central
Government
Expenditure :
Rp965,0T
(67,2%)
Material
Rp188,0T
(19,5%)
Capital
Rp152,0T
(15,7%)
Grant
Expenditure
Rp1,8T
(0,2%)
Others
Rp28,5T
(3,0%)
Interest
Payment
Rp122,2T
(12,7%)
Subsidy
Rp208,9T
(21,6%)
Social
Assistance
Rp47,8T
(4,9%)
Economic Growth
Inflation
SPN 3 Month
Exchange Rate
Oil Prices/ICP
Lifting
Target :
Poverty: 10,5-11,5%;
Unemployment: 6,4-6,6%;
Workforce increase
450.000 people per 1%
Economic Growth
Special
Autonomy
and
adjustment
Fund
Rp70,4T
(15,0%)
Balance Fund
Rp400,0T
(85,0%)
Specific
Allocation
Fund
Rp26,1T
(6,5%)
6,7
5,3
6,0
8.800
90,0
950,0
General
Allocation
Fund Rp273,8T
(68,5%)
Revenue
Sharing
Fund
Rp100,1T
(25,0%)
5
Budget Summary 2012
Trillion rupiah
2011
Description
APBN-P
RAPBN
APBN
A. STATE REVENUE AND GRANT
I. DOMESTIC REVENUE
1. TAX REVENUE
Tax Ratio (% to GDP (CPI))
2. NON-TAX REVENUE
II. GRANT
1,169.9
1,165.3
878.7
12.2
286.6
4.7
1,292.9
1,292.1
1,013.9
12.6
272.7
0.8
1,311.4
1,310.6
1,032.6
12.7
278.0
0.8
B. EXPENDITURE
I. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
A. LINE MINISTRIES
B. NON-LINE MINISTRIES
Additional Budget
- Non-Education
- Education in line ministry
II. TRANSFER TO REGION
1. Balanced Fund
a. Revenue Sharing Fund
b. General Allocation Fund
2. Special Autonomy and Adjusment Fund
C. BUDGET DEFICIT (A-B)
% Deficit to GDP-CPI
D. FINANCING (I+II)
I. DOMESTIC FINANCING
II. FOREIGN FINANCEING (NETTO)
1. Gross Drawing
i.e. Program Loan
2. Amortization
SURPLUS/(DEFICIT) FINANCING
1,320.8
908.2
461.5
446.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
412.5
347.5
96.8
225.5
65.0
(150.8)
(2.10)
150.8
153.6
(2.8)
56.2
19.2
(47.2)
0.0
1,418.5
954.1
476.6
477.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
464.4
394.1
98.5
269.5
70.2
(125.6)
(1.55)
125.6
125.9
(0.3)
56.0
16.9
(47.3)
0.0
1,432.4
965.0
508.4
456.6
12.5
9.1
3.4
470.4
400.0
100.1
273.8
70.4
(124.0)
(1.53)
124.0
125.9
(1.9)
54.3
15.3
(47.3)
0.0
2012
Difference
to RAPBN
18.5
18.5
13.2
0.2
5.3
0.0
16.9
10.9
31.7
(20.9)
12.5
9.1
3.4
6.0
5.8
1.6
4.3
0.2
1.6
0.02
(1.6)
0.0
(1.6)
(1.7)
(1.6)
0.0
0.0
Difference to
APBN 2011
141.5
145.3
153.9
0.6
(8.6)
(3.8)
114.7
56.8
46.9
9.9
12.5
9.1
3.4
57.9
52.4
3.3
48.3
5.5
26.8
0.56
(26.8)
(27.7)
0.9
(1.9)
(3.9)
0.0
0.0
6
Fiscal Policy Direction for
Sustainable Development
Concept of Budget Policy for Welfare  Fiscal Sustainability &
Sustainable development
Sustainable economic growth
Infrastructure development
Conducive investment climate
Budget
Fiscal Sustainability
Sustainable
Development
Economic Stability
Law and Order
Clarity of Rule of The Game
Welfare
Policy Consistency
8
Government Spending is aimed to achieve
people’s welfare
Capital Expenditure increase to support infrastructure development in order to domestic connectivity
2005 (%)
9,4
2012 (%)
21.6
15,0
6,9
4.9 3.0
22.4
8,1
12.7
9,1
33,4
18,1
19.5
15.7
Infrastructure Spending increase to support acceleration and expansion economic growth and unemployment reduction
Trillion IDR
180,0
160,0
140,0
120,0
100,0
80,0
60,0
40,0
20,0
-
144,7
54,0
59,8
78,7
161,4
10,0
99,4
91,3
12,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
-
2006
2007
2008
Infrastruktur
2009
2010
Growth
2011
2012
Unemployment
9
Sustainable Fiscal Management
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)
8-year fiscal deficit
average= -1.1%
Average 1,0%
Debt to GDP Ratio has been sharply declining since crisis period
Source: FPO
10
Central Government Expenditure increase more than double (2006 : Rp440,0 T 2012:
Rp965.0T) especially Subsidies and personnel expenditure
1.000,0
800,0
600,0
693,4
908,2
965,0
2011
2012
697,4
628,8
504,6
440,0
400,0
200,0
-
2006
2007
Bel lain-lain
2008
Bansos
Bel Hibah
2009
Subsidi
2010
Bunga utang
Bel Modal
Bel Barang
Belpeg
Portion of capital expenditure increase to support infrastructure development  Economic Growth
Komposisi (%)
2006
8,5
2012
Belpeg
16,6
9,3
3,0
0,24,9
Bel Barang
-
10,7
Bel Modal
22,4
21,6
12,5
18,0
Bel Hibah
Bansos
Bel lain-lain
Bel Barang
Bel Modal
Bunga utang
Bunga utang
Subsidi
24,4
Belpeg
19,5
12,7
15,7
Subsidi
Bel Hibah
Bansos
Bel lain-lain
11
Infrastructure Development Target 2012
Double Track Railway Road
• 149.99 km new railway
project, 355.9 km double track
• Maintenance of 240.44 km of
tracks
Roads and Highways
 New roads and highway project of 127
km, bridges 7.7km.
 Roads 292 km of remote areas
 Maintenance Roads 36,319 km and
bridges 217 m
Airports
Electric Infrastructure
• Expansion and rehabilitation of
116 airports
• Construction of 14 new airports
• Construction of 735.6 km of new
transmission
• Construction of new main gate
totaling 2,330 MVA
Affordable Housing
• Housing programs for over
3,000 villages
• Cinstruction of 223 twin block
affordable flats
Water Infrastructure
• Continued construction of 9 dams
• Completion of 87 lakes
• Rehabilitation of 24 dams and 62
12
lakes
12
Spending increase by average of 14,2% annually
Trillion IDR
1.500,0
1.300,0
Expenditure
Transfer ke Daerah
Bel Pemerintah Pusat
985,7
1.100,0
900,0
700,0
500,0
300,0
667,1
226,2
757,6
292,4
937,4
308,6
1.320,8
1.042,1
412,5
1.435,4
470,4
344,7
253,3
440,0
504,6
2006
2007
693,4
628,8
697,4
2008
2009
2010
908,2
965,0
2011
2012
100,0
(100,0)
• State expenditures has increased more than 2 times from Rp 509.6T (2005) to
Rp1.320,8T (2011).
• On 2012 State expenditures is proposed increase by Rp114,6T, with details central
government increase by 67.2% and transfer to region increase by 32.8%.
• Expenditure Policy Direction, i.e. (i) Infrastructure Development to support MP3EI
program, (ii) increasing country's defense capability to reach Minimum Essential Force
(MEF), and (iii) the extension of social protection programs (pro-people).
13
Policy Direction of Central Government
Expenditure 2012
General Policy
 Increasing in infrastructure expenditure to support the Debottlenecking, Domestic
Connectivity, Food Security, Energy Security, and Welfare Society;
 Supporting multiyears activity funding
 Moving towards minimum essential forces;
 Improving mitigation capability and adaptation of climate change
 Strengthening Pro People Program (Cluster 4):
• 6 Main Programs: Affordable Hosing, Affordable Public Transportation, Clean
Water for people, Affordable and Efficient Electricity, Fishermen Life
Improvement, Suburban Communities Life Improvement
• 3 Priority Programs: Rice surplus 10 million ton in 5-10 years, Job creation
for reducing unemployment 1 million people per year, and Jakarta
Transportation Development
14
Top 10 Big Budget Line Ministries
Top 10 Big Capital Expenditure Line Ministries
Top 10 Big budget Line Ministries
72,5
Defense
Public
Works
Kemen
PU
64,4
Education
Public Works
Defense
Kemenhan
62,6
38,3
Religion
29,9
Health
Kemenhub
Transportation
Capital Expenditure
increase to maitain
sustainable agriculture
development
28,1
Transportation
Agriculture
17,8
Finance
26,2
20,6
Energy & Mineral
Kemen ESDM
Resources
39,8
Police
48,8
11,4
Kemenkes
Health
5,4
Polri
Police
4,1
Kemenag
Religion
3,8
Youth
and Sport
Kemenpera
2,6
17,8
Kemendiknas
Education
2,5
17,1
Kemenkeu
Finance
2,4
2012
Trade
-
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
Trillion Rupiah
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
-
2012
10,0
20,0
30,0
Triliun
Rupiah
Trillion
Rupiah
40,0
50,0
60,0
15
FOOD SECURITY PROGRAM 2011-2012
Food Security Program Target 2011-2012 :
80.00
69,6
70.00
57,6
60.00
48,5
50.00
36,2
30.00
20.00
 To increase production, productivity, and the
quality of food products, the targets are:
o Rice 74,1 million ton
o Corn 24,0 million ton
o Soybean 1,9 million ton
o Sugar 4,4 million ton
o Meat 471 million ton
o Fish 14,86 million ton
44,2
40.00
 To Cope with food prices rise
through price stabilization policy by providing
food stocks and market operations (food
subsidies);
23,2
16,8
11,3
10.00
 To anticipate global food inflation through
international cooperation on food security;
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
LineaMinistries
Kementeri
n Negara/Lembaga Subsidies
Subsidi
2010
2011
Expenditure
BelanjOther
a Lain-Lai
n
2012
Proposed
RAPBN
Budget
 To increase production, productivity, and the
quality of plantation crops;
 To achieve rice surplus minimum 10 million ton
per year within 5-10 years.
16
Subsidy 2005-2012
Description
2005
Subsidy Spending
-
Energy
Fuel
Electricity
-
Non Energy
Food
Fertilizer
Seed
PSO
Credit Program
Tax Subsidy
Others Subsidy
500
450
400
120,8
2006
107,4
275,3
237,2
208,9
140,0
82,4
57,6
195,3
129,7
65,6
168,6
123,6
45,0
16,2
6,4
2,5
0,1
0,9
0,1
6,2
0,0
12,9
5,3
3,2
0,1
1,8
0,3
1,9
0,3
33,3
6,6
6,3
0,5
1,0
0,3
17,1
1,5
52,2
12,1
15,2
1,0
1,7
0,9
21,0
0,3
43,5
13,0
18,3
1,6
1,3
1,1
8,2
0,0
52,8
15,2
18,4
2,2
1,4
0,8
14,8
0,0
41,9
15,3
18,8
0,1
1,8
1,9
4,0
0,0
40,3
15,6
16,9
0,3
2,0
1,2
4,2
0,0
%
27,9
Non-Energy
Electricity
Fuel
% to State Expenditure
200
18,5
275,3
150,2
107,4
12,9
30,4
83,9
33,3
33,1
139,1
64,2
83,8
2006
2007
14,7
2008
237,2
41,9
138,1
52,8
65,6
43,5
57,6
49,5
2009
82,4
30
25
20
18,0
192,7
45,0
0
2005
192,7
94,5
45,0
49,5
52,2
95,6
138,1
2012
APBN
223,0
139,1
83,9
16,1
16,2
8,9
2011
APBN-P
2010
116,9
83,8
33,1
19,8
120,8
2009
94,6
64,2
30,4
250
50
150,2
23,7
300
100
2008
104,5
95,6
8,9
Trillion Rp
350
150
2007
14,5
208,9
40,3
45,0
129,7
123,6
2011 APBN-P
2012
APBN
15
10
5
0
2010
17
Subsidy Policy 2012
Fuel
Subsidy
Electricity
Subsidy
• Fuel subsidy targeted by prohibited premium gasoline distribution for private cars in
Java and Bali from April 2012;
• Hold subsidized volume of fuel consumption by 40 million kilo liters→ 2.5
million kilo liters of subsidized premium will be saved (will be evaluated in
Budget Revised 2012);
• Fuel Conversion program from gasoline to gas.
• Lowering power losses and increasing supply of gas and coal use as input generator;
• Plan to increase electricity tariff of 10% (awaiting approval from legislative).
• Food Subsidies: Provides cheap rice for 17.5 million poor house hold during
12 months at 15 kg / RTS / month;
Non
Energy
Subsidy
• Fertilizer subsidies: fulfill farmers needs of fertilizers at affordable prices, increasing
agricultural productivity and revitalization, and also to support food
security programs;
• Seed Subsidies : Helps farmer by providing and distributing high quality seeds at
affordable prices through state owned Enterprises;
• PSO: Improve public service of railway transportation and shipping transportation as
well as public information (LKBN Antara and Postal) in order to be utilized by
society;
• Tax Subsidies: Price stabilization of basic needs as well as
strategic national industry.
development of
18
Capital Exependiture increase inline with improvement of macro economic indicators (Growth &
Unemployment) and micro indicators (Agriculture production, health services), reduction for
poverty level
180,0
Infrastructure Spending
144,7
160,0
161,4
10,0
140,0
120,0
100,0
80,0
60,0
54,0
59,8
78,7
91,3
99,4
8,0
6,0
4,0
40,0
2,0
20,0
-
-
2006
2007
2008
2009
Infrastruktur
120,0
2010
Growth
2011
80,1
81,4
93,8
99,2
53,1
2007
2008
2009
Budget
2010
poor
2011
2012
80,0
70,0
60,0
50,0
22,4
18,1
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Produksi
Health Spending
30,0
80
25,0
78
12,0
20,0
76
10,0
15,0
5,0
2,0
-
82
24,4
10,0
4,0
-
2006
90,0
18,0
6,0
-
46,5
35,0
8,0
20,0
43,3
20,0
14,0
40,0
41,1
Pertanian
16,0
60,6
Agriculture Spending
2006
Unemployment
80,0
46,6
50,0
45,0
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
-
2012
Poverty Spending
100,0
60,0
12,0
22,5
27,8
31,6
74
72
24,5
70
68
2006
2007
Kesehatan
2008
2009
2010
Persalinan ditolong tenaga kesehatan
19
Non Energy Subsidies (Food & seed subsidies) increase, energy subsidies decreasing
meanwhile agriculture production increasing average 7,7%
120,0
Agriculture
subsidies
Agriculture
production
30
100
Produksi (juta ton)
non Energi
35
25
80
20
60
Energi
100,0
Subsidi Pertanian (Triliun Rp)
120
11,9
22,2
19,0
31,5
17,7
19,3
82,3
80,7
27,4
80,0
60,0
15
88,1
40
10
20
5
0
40,0
77,8
81,0
68,5
72,6
20,0
0
2006
2007
Produksi
Kedelai
Jagung
Padi
2008
2009
2010
Subsidi
Pupuk
Benih
2011
APBN-P
2012
APBN
-
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
20
Fiscal Incentives of Agriculture Sector
Strategic Food Commodities Policy
Beras
Minyak
Goreng
Kede lai
Te rigu/
Gandum
√
√
─
√
─
√
─
─
√
√
√
─
─
─
─
─
√
√
─
─
─
─
─
─
─
─
√
√
√
√
√
─
√
√
─
√
√
─
√
√
# Peran Bulog
√
─
─
─
# Kemitraan Pemerintah - Sw asta (DMO)
─
√
─
─
# Pengada an Cada ngan
√
─
─
─
# Pelepa san Stok
√
─
─
─
√
√
√
√
─
─
─
√
Kebijakan
1.
Dukunga n Produksi
# Peningkatan HPP
# Iklim Investasi Pangan
2.
Bantua n Fiskal
# Subsidi Benih
# Subsidi Pupuk
# Subsidi Kredit
# PPN DTP
# PPh Import
3.
Perda ga ngan/Ta ta Niaga
# Non Ta rif Barrier
# Ta rif Barrier
# Kelancaran Arus Barang/Jalur Hijau
4.
5.
6.
Le mba ga Penyeimba ng
Intervensi Pasar
Bantua n Konsumen/UKM
# Bantua n Natura; Penjua lan Bersubsidi
7.
Diversifikasi Pangan
# Pencampuran Gandum dgn Baha n
Baku Umbi-umbian/Sukun
Budget support for Food Security
Triliun Rupiah
No
Items
2010
Real
2011
APBN-P
2012
APBN
1
Food Price Stabilization Fund
0,2
2,6
2,0
2
Government Rice Reserve Fund
2,5
1,0
2,0
3
National Seed Reserve Fund
0,2
0,6
0,4
4
Agriculture Subsidy
35,7
34,2
32,8
- Food
15,2
15,3
15,6
- Fertilizer
18,4
18,8
16,9
2,2
0,1
0,3
- Seed
1.
Food Price Stabilization Fund: food stuff import, keeping domestic food price, giving compensation to farmer in case of
corp failure and additional fund for Raskin program.
2.
Governments Rice Reserve Fund: stabilizing rice price by market operation, food scarcity anticipation, and food distribution
in emergency situation
3.
National Seed Reserve Fund : Providing quality seed (rice, soybean, corn) to farmer in order to enhance productivity and
production of food plantation.
4.
Others Expenditure relate to Agriculture Subsidies on Budget 2012 :
a. Bantuan Langsung Benih Unggul (BLBU) Rp1,318M  Social Assistance (Kementan)
b. Bantuan Langsung Pupuk (BLP) Rp1,921M  Social Assistance (Kementan)
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