Hill - Growth Centres

Transcription

Box Hill Retail and
Employment Study
PREPARED FOR
NSW Department of
Planning
February 2011
Hill PDA
ABN 52 003 963 755
rd
3 Floor 234 George Street Sydney
GPO Box 2748 Sydney NSW 2001
t. +61 2 9252 8777
f. +61 2 9252 6077
e. sydney@hillpda.com
w. www.hillpda.com
Hill PDA
QUALITY ASSURANCE
REPORT CONTACT:
VICTORIA TOMPSETT
B. Land Econ./B. Arts International Studies
Principal, Property Economics
Victoria.Tompsett@hillpda.com
QUALITY CONTROL
This document is for discussion purposes only unless signed and dated by a Principal of Hill PDA.
REVIEWED BY
ADRIAN HACK
M. Land Econ. B.Town Planning (Hons). MPIA
Principal, Property Economics & Retail
Adrian.Hack@hillpda.com
25 November, 2010
REPORT DETAILS:
Job Ref No:
Version:
Date Printed:
File Name:
Ref: C10059
C10059
Final
9/02/2011 10:06:00 AM
C10059 Box Hill Retail & Employment Assessment Final 231110.doc
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Hill PDA
Box Hill Retail and Employment Assessment
CONTENTS
1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 8
2.
INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 14
2.1
2.2
2.3
3.
Study Background ................................................................................................................ 14
Study Brief and Methodology .............................................................................................. 15
Background Documentation ................................................................................................ 16
PLANNING & POLICY CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................................ 18
3.1
3.2
3.3
State and Regional Planning ............................................................................................... 18
Local Government Plans and Policies ................................................................................ 22
Other Plans and Policies ..................................................................................................... 26
Part A – Retail Lands Analysis
4.
ANALYSIS OF RETAIL TRENDS .............................................................................................. 30
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.
RETAIL FLOORSPACE SUPPLY .............................................................................................. 38
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.10
6.
Methodology for Determining Demand ............................................................................... 56
Household Expenditure ....................................................................................................... 56
Capture of Expenditure ........................................................................................................ 57
Demand for Retail Floorspace in Box Hill ........................................................................... 59
Other Sources of Expenditure ............................................................................................. 60
IMPLICATIONS FOR RETAIL IN BOX HILL ................................................................................ 61
8.1
8.2
8.3
Ref: C10059
Trade Area Definition ........................................................................................................... 51
Demographics of the Trade Area ........................................................................................ 52
Population Growth in the Trade Area.................................................................................. 54
DEMAND FOR RETAIL FLOORSPACE...................................................................................... 56
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
8.
Retail Hierarchy .................................................................................................................... 38
Summary of Existing Supply................................................................................................ 40
Castle Hill Major Centre ....................................................................................................... 43
Rouse Hill Major Centre ....................................................................................................... 44
Norwest Specialised Centre ................................................................................................ 45
Town Centres ....................................................................................................................... 45
Village Centres ..................................................................................................................... 47
Neighbourhood Centres....................................................................................................... 48
Bulky Goods ......................................................................................................................... 48
Planned Centres and Proposed Developments ................................................................. 49
TRADE AREA ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................... 51
6.1
6.2
6.3
7.
Greater Size and Diversification .......................................................................................... 31
New Urbanism ...................................................................................................................... 32
Convenience Shopping........................................................................................................ 33
Deregulation of Hours .......................................................................................................... 34
Changes in Supermarkets ................................................................................................... 34
Out of Centre Retailing ........................................................................................................ 35
Bulky Goods Retailing.......................................................................................................... 36
Changing Shifts in Trade ..................................................................................................... 36
Internet Shopping ................................................................................................................. 37
Objectives and Guiding Principles ...................................................................................... 61
Matching Supply with Demand ............................................................................................ 62
Staging of Shopfront Space................................................................................................. 62
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Hill PDA
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
8.10
8.11
The Size of the Town Centre ............................................................................................... 63
Non Retail Role of Box Hill Town Centre ............................................................................ 65
Neighbourhood Centres....................................................................................................... 65
Bulky Goods ......................................................................................................................... 66
Impact on Surrounding Centres .......................................................................................... 67
Impact on Car Parking Provision......................................................................................... 68
Impact on Local Employment .............................................................................................. 68
Planning Control ................................................................................................................... 69
Part B – Industrial and Employment Lands Analysis
9.
ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL AND EMPLOYMENT LAND TRENDS ................................................ 71
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
10.
SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIAL AND EMPLOYMENT LAND ................................................................. 77
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
11.
Resident Workforce by Occupation .................................................................................... 84
Resident Workforce by Industry .......................................................................................... 84
Where Do Residents Work? ................................................................................................ 85
Where do Workers Come from?.......................................................................................... 86
Jobs versus Working Residents .......................................................................................... 86
Employment Growth in the Growth Centre ......................................................................... 87
DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL AND EMPLOYMENT LAND.............................................................. 88
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
13.
The Hills Shire ...................................................................................................................... 77
Hawkesbury .......................................................................................................................... 80
Blacktown ............................................................................................................................. 82
Planned Centres and Proposed Developments ................................................................. 83
EMPLOYMENT PROFILING ..................................................................................................... 84
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.6
12.
The Australian Economy ...................................................................................................... 71
Commercial Trends and Drivers.......................................................................................... 72
Industrial Trends and Drivers .............................................................................................. 74
The New Economy ............................................................................................................... 75
Methodology for Determining Demand ............................................................................... 88
Demand based on TDC Job Forecasts .............................................................................. 89
Demand Based on Job Containment Target ...................................................................... 92
Supply versus Demand........................................................................................................ 94
IMPLICATIONS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND EMPLOYMENT LANDS IN BOX HILL ................................ 95
13.1 Considerations for the North West Growth Centre ............................................................ 95
13.2 Role and Function of Industrial and Employment Land in Box Hill ................................... 96
Part C – Draft Indicative Layout Plan
Appendix 1 - North West Growth Centre Precincts
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 - North West Growth Centre Precinct Boundaries Map (2009) .......................................................... 14
Figure 2 - North West Structure Plan (2006) .................................................................................................. 21
Figure 3 - Employment Lands Structure Plan (2009) ...................................................................................... 25
Figure 4 - Box Hill Centres Hierarchy ............................................................................................................. 39
Figure 5 - Box Hill Surrounding Retail ............................................................................................................ 42
Figure 6 - Box Hill Retail Trade Areas ............................................................................................................ 52
Figure 7 - Circa - Norwest Business Park ....................................................................................................... 78
Figure 8 - Statistical Local Areas (15 to 20 minute drive time) ........................................................................ 89
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 - North West Growth Centre Planned Precincts to 2031 .................................................................... 21
Table 2 - Hills Shire Dwelling Targets to 2031 ................................................................................................ 23
Table 3 - North West Subregion Centres Hierarchy ........................................................................................ 38
Table 4 - Existing Supply by Floorspace (sqm GLA)....................................................................................... 40
Table 5 - Existing Supply by Shopping Centre (sqm GLA).............................................................................. 41
Table 6 - North West Growth Centre Planned Centres to 2031 ...................................................................... 49
Table 7 - Proposed Retail Developments ....................................................................................................... 49
Table 8 - Population Characteristics (2006).................................................................................................... 53
Table 9 - Dwelling & Household Characteristics (2006) .................................................................................. 53
Table 10 - Income Characteristics (2006) ....................................................................................................... 54
Table 11 - Population Growth of the Trade Area 2009-2031 ........................................................................... 55
Table 12 - Primary & Secondary Trade Area Expenditure Available to Box Hill to 2031 (2009$m).................. 57
Table 13 - Primary and Secondary Trade Area Capture Rates ....................................................................... 57
Table 14 - Capture of Expenditure by Box Hill to 2031 (2009$m) ................................................................... 58
Table 15 - Box Hill Target Turnover* 2009-2031 ($/sqm)................................................................................ 59
Table 16 - Forecast Retail Floorspace Demand in Box Hill to 2031 (sqm) ...................................................... 59
Table 17 - Box Hill Town Centre Job Creation ................................................................................................ 69
Table 18 - Existing Employment Land in the Hills Shire.................................................................................. 77
Table 19 - Circa Precincts, Norwest Business Park ........................................................................................ 78
Table 20 - North West Growth Centre Industrial and Employment Land Precincts to 2031 ............................. 83
Table 21 - Proposed Industrial and Employment Land Developments ............................................................ 83
Table 22 - Resident Workforce by Occupation (2006) .................................................................................... 84
Table 23 - Resident Workforce by Industry (2006) ......................................................................................... 85
Table 24 - Where Do the Hills Shire Residents Work? ................................................................................... 85
Table 25 - Where Do Workers in the Hills Shire Come From? ........................................................................ 86
Table 26 - Job Growth in the North West Subregion to 2001 to 2031 ............................................................. 87
Table 27 - Job Growth in Strategic Centres 2001 to 2031 .............................................................................. 87
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
Table 28 - Forecast Jobs in the North Baulkham Hills, North Blacktown and Hawkesbury SLAs to 2036 ........ 90
Table 29 - Apportionment of Jobs to Zones .................................................................................................... 91
Table 30 - Required GFA per Worker (sqm) ................................................................................................... 91
Table 31 - Required Land Area for Employment Areas by Census Year by Land Use Type (hectares) .......... 92
Table 32 - Revised Forecast Jobs in the North Baulkham Hills, North Blacktown and Hawkesbury SLAs to
2036 .......................................................................................................................................... 93
Table 33 - Forecast Occupied Land Area (Absolute Ha) to 2036 Based on Job Containment ......................... 93
Table 34 - Industrial and Business Park Land Supply vs. Demand ................................................................. 94
Table 35 - Estimated Employment Calculations ........................................................................................... 100
ABBREVIATIONS
The following abbreviations may be found in this report:
ABS
Australian Bureau of Statistics
ANZIC
Australia and New Zealand Industry Code
CBD
Central Business District
CCD
Census Collector District
DDS
Discount Department Store
DoP
Department of Planning
FSR
Floorspace Ratio
GCC
Growth Centres Commission
GFA
Gross Floor Area
GLA
Gross Lettable Area
GST
Goods & Services Tax
HES
Household Expenditure Survey
LEP
Local Environmental Plan
LGA
Local Government Area
NLA
Net Lettable Area
NWGC
North West Growth Centre
PTA
Primary Trade Area
SLA
Statistical Local Area
STA
Secondary Trade Area
SD
Statistical Division
TDC
Transport Data Centre
TZ
Travel Zone
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Net Selling Area: Net Selling Area (NSA) is defined as that area involved in the selling process comprising all areas that
customers can go to, plus display cases, display areas and spaces around checkout counters. It excludes the back of house
area, which is generally “out of bounds” for customers. To the best of our knowledge IBECON (which has now ceased
trading) was the only retail economics consultancy that used NSA in its assessments.
Gross Leasable Area: Gross Leasable Area or Gross Lettable Area (GLA) is the common measure used for lease and for
other descriptive purposes in retail centres and shops. It is usually defined as the total area of the lease and includes back of
house, storage, offices and mezzanine levels but usually excludes loading docks and common mall spaces. GLA is more
commonly used in the industry because it defines the area of the lease. Shopping centre owners report rents and turnover
figures on the leased area and benchmarking is usually made on the GLA. For the purpose of Hill PDA’s demand modelling
all floor areas expressed are in GLA.
Gross Floor Area: Gross Floor Area is Gross Leasable Area plus common mall spaces (including amenities), centre
management area and plant rooms. In a typical indoor centre with at least one department store and supermarket the GLA
makes up around 72% to 75% of the GFA.
Retail Space or Retail Floorspace: For the purpose of the demand modelling Hill PDA have defined retail space as GLA
used primarily for the selling of goods and certain services. Therefore, Hill PDA classifies retail space into the following
types:
§ Supermarkets and grocery stores;
§ Specialty food stores such as bakeries, confectionary stores, tobacconists, butchers, seafood, liquor (take-away),
etc;
§ Take-away food stores;
§ Cafes and restaurants;
§ Department stores;
§ Bulky goods stores (includes “Fabric and Soft Goods Stores, Furniture and Floor Coverings Retailers, Domestic
Hardware and Houseware Retailing and Electrical Appliances Stores” as defined under ANZIC);
§ Specialty non-food stores; and
§ Selected Personal Services (defined under ANZIC to include hair and beauty, laundry, clothing hire and alterations,
shoe repair, optical dispensing, photo processing and hire of videos)
Excluded uses (which are generally excluded under ANZIC) are hotels, clubs, entertainment uses (e.g. cinemas, ice rink),
automotive retailers, wholesaling businesses and non-retail commercial uses such as banks, travel agents, medical suites
and real estate agents.
Commercial Space: Commercial space generally refers to any non-residential space used by business in employing people
and producing goods and/or services. For the purpose of the modelling Hill PDA have used the term to refer to non-retail
office use including travel agents, real estate agents, medical suites, government administration, financial services, business
services, personal services, etc whether or not the space is shopfront or not. Commercial spaces in commercial centres that
are not shopfront space are either in stand alone office buildings or above shopfront space (shop-top).
Specialties: In the industry specialties generally refer to shopfront premises that are less than 400sqm in size. For the
purpose of this report specialties refer to all shopfront premises that are neither supermarkets, department stores nor bulky
goods. This includes non-retail shopfront space and vacant shops.
Vacant Shop: Vacant shop refers to shopfront space that is vacant. That space has been designed and constructed to
accommodate a retailer but could equally be let to a non-retail commercial user such as a bank or real estate agent.
Shopfront Space: Shopfront space is GLA that is occupied by retailers plus non-retail users that occupy shopfront spaces
(such as banks, travel agents, medical services, real estate agents, etc) and vacant shopfront space.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Hill PDA has been engaged by the NSW Department of Planning to prepare an Employment and Retail
Assessment for the Box Hill Precincts. Both Box Hill Precincts are located within the Hills Shire, however
bound by Blacktown (to the west of Windsor Road) and Hawkesbury (to the north-west of Boundary Road)
LGA’s.
The Box Hill and Box Hill Industrial Precincts are bounded by Windsor Road to the south west, Old Pitt Town
Road and Boundary Road to the North and the existing Annangrove Road industrial area to the south east.
The total Box Hill Precinct including the industrial area is around 973ha and is expected to accommodate
around 10,000 dwellings and around 28,000 people by 2031. Box Hill will be supported by a Town Centre and
various smaller lower order centres.
In masterplanning the Box Hill Precincts the boundary between the industrial and the non-industrial are flexible
and therefore the approach has been to plan for both Precincts as if they were one. Employment uses have
not been limited to the industrial area and certain employment uses (such as commercial and retail) are not
necessarily limited to the non-industrial areas.
In order to develop and evaluate a range of staging options for the planning and management of retail growth in
Box Hill, it is necessary to have a clear set of objectives. Objectives could include the following:
§
Ensure residents have the widest possible range of shopping opportunities and commercial services;
§
Provide quantity, quality and convenience for consumers;
§
Provide for further growth in retail space to meet growth in demand generated by population growth;
§
Protect the integrity and viability of existing centres to the extent that they continue to perform a useful
community function;
§
Provide opportunities for local employment and start-up businesses for local residents; and
§
Balance social, economic and environmental considerations and focus on local ESD principles including
reduction in transport demand.
Having regard to the above, and assuming population growth rates mirror the forecasts adopted within this
report, Hill PDA has developed a staging plan for new retail centres in Box Hill.
The objective has been to open centres concurrently with demand, if not slightly ahead of demand. Retailers,
particularly the national supermarkets, are often satisfied to trade at below industry levels for the first few years, if
they are confident that trading levels will increase over time due to population growth.
Please note that the timing of centres is indicative and should be flexible or robust. The important consideration
is that its population thresholds that are the key drivers to the size and staging of centres.
Ref: C10059
Page 8
Hill PDA
Short to Mid Term (Years 2016 to 2021)
During this period the first stage of the new Box Hill Town Centre should develop. Stage 1 should open with a
full-line supermarket (3,000 to 4,000sqm) and around 20-30 specialty stores (2,500sqm to 3,000sqm). Total
retail floorspace associated to Stage 1 of the Town Centre is equivalent to 5,000sqm to 7,000sqm (GLA).
The supermarket is expected to trade below average for the first year or two but should trade at industry
benchmark levels by 2023 based on the population and household expenditure forecasts within this report.
Mid to Long Term (Years 2026 to 2028)
By around 2026 to 2028 the Town Centre should undergo a major expansion with the inclusion of:
§
A discount department store (6,000sqm to 8,000sqm);
§
A second large supermarket (3,000sqm to 3,500sqm) or a smaller discount food store such as an ALDI
(around 1,500sqm);
§
4 to 5 mini-majors (4,000sqm to 5,000sqm); and
§
A further 6,000sqm to 8,000sqm of specialty stores.
Total retail floorspace in Stage 2 is equivalent to an additional 18,000sqm to 24,000sqm (GLA) of shopfront
space. Ultimately the Town Centre should reach a size of around 26,000sqm to 30,000sqm (GLA).
Long Term (Post 2031)
By 2031 there will be unsatisfied demand of around 15,000sqm to 20,000sqm of shop front floorspace of which
around 4,000sqm to 7,000sqm would be supermarket space. In addition to the Town Centre, two or three
Village Centres could largely satisfy remaining demand. The Village Centres should each be between
3,000sqm and 5,000sqm and anchored by a supermarket each between 1,500sqm to 3,000sqm.
The Size of the Town Centre
The North West Structure Plan suggests a Town Centre for Box Hill with 20,000sqm to 25,000sqm of retail space
(GFA). The Town Centre is characterised as including 1 to 2 supermarkets and 1 department store. However the
methodology used to derive that size was not known.
Hill PDA’s expenditure modelling indicates that by 2031 the Box Hill trade area will demand around 45,000sqm to
50,000sqm (GLA) of shop front space (which also allows for some non-retail users such as travel agents, medical
services, financial services, travel agents and the like).
By 2031 the ideal distribution of this floorspace demand is a Town Centre of around 30,000sqm (GLA) with two or
three supporting Village Centres of around 3,000sqm to 6,000sqm (GLA) each.
There will also be other land uses over and above retail and commercial that contributes to the sustainability and
overall function of a town centre. These include the likes of community, education, entertainment, open space
civic and transport functions. Residential within a town centre can also be considered.
Ref: C10059
Page 9
Hill PDA
This results in a larger town centre than originally envisaged by the North West Structure Plan, which only took
account of retail floorspace. The impact of such a centre on the retail hierarchy of the North West Subregion
needs to be considered.
The retail hierarchy in the North West Subregional Strategy (2006-2031) nominates various existing town centres
ranging in size from 14,000sqm to 35,000sqm (GLA) of retail floorspace. This includes the likes of Baulkham
Hills, Stanhope Gardens, and Richmond. These existing town centres are characterised by:
§
1 or 2 large supermarkets;
§
1 or 2 discount department stores;
§
Several mini-majors and associated specialty stores;
§
Shopfront commercial floorspace and few local entertainment land uses (e.g. local tavern and café’s);
and
§
In some cases minor civic land uses (e.g. local library branch).
The next level in the hierarchy are major centres, however these are significantly larger than town centres.
Existing major centres in the North West Subregion, range from 74,000sqm (GLA) of retail and commercial
floorspace in the case of Rouse Hill, to 171,000sqm (GLA) in the case of Castle Hill. It’s also recognised that
Rouse Hill still has remaining retail and commercial stages yet to be developed. These major centres are
characterised by:
§
1 to 2 national department stores;
§
2 to 3 discount department stores;
§
3 to 4 large supermarkets;
§
High proportion of commercial floorspace including possible stand alone commercial buildings;
§
Entertainment land uses (e.g. cinema complex, bowling ally, tavern’s, restaurant’s)
§
Civic land uses (e.g. library, council branch, government offices);
§
Bulky goods clusters or employment lands on the fringe;
§
Transport interchanges; and
§
Higher residential densities (e.g. multi-unit development) within or surrounding the centre.
Box Hill has been prescribed as a Town Centre in the North West Structure Plan and the North West Subregional
Strategy retail hierarchy. Whilst existing town centres in the Subregion are 14,000sqm to 35,000sqm of retail
floorspace (GFA), modelling within this report indicates that the Box Hill Town Centre could reach up to
30,000sqm (GLA) of retail floorspace by 2031.
However, given the attributes and functions prescribed to a town centre versus a major centre, and the relatively
larger size of major centres, the primary retail centre within the Box Hill Precinct clearly remains that of a town
centre. Furthermore, planning for a mix of centres (town and village centres) in Box Hill rather than one large
centre, will go some way to distributing demand and associated impacts.
Ref: C10059
Page 10
Hill PDA
Supply versus Demand
By 2036 there will be demand for around 790ha of industrial land as compared to the 611ha of supply
(excluding potential supply at Box Hill) based on a target 75% containment rate (ratio of jobs to working
residents). This results in an undersupply of some 180ha of industrial land. The Annangrove industrial area
immediately adjacent to Box Hill has around 100ha of vacant land which can support much of this demand.
Similarly for business park land, by 2036 planned supply of 83.4ha will be 92 hectares less than the 176ha
required.
However based on the TDC forecast there is a surplus of industrial land in the order of 118 hectares and a
deficiency of business park land in the order of 27 hectares.
In addition to the retail centres employment lands should be provided for Box Hill in the order of 100 hectares
for light industrial and 80 to 90 hectares for a business park. Riverstone West will provide an adequate
amount of business park land over the next couple of decades but by 2021-2026 Box Hill could potentially
accommodate additional demand.
Local Industry
Smaller, appropriately sized industrial areas provide local services to emerging populations. Preliminary urban
design options have provided for 41ha industrial land to the northern side of Annangrove Road. Given the
location of this site directly north of the existing Annangrove Road Light Industrial Precinct, the site would be
appropriate for local service industrial and urban services to meet demand from surrounding residential
populations. In that sense, it can be viewed as an extension to the existing Precinct.
Land uses can include the likes of auto smash repairers, tyre centres, car detailing, small warehouses, small
manufacturers, wholesaling, and building and construction services.
Principles for light industrial lands are as follows:
§
Attempt to preserve light industrial land adjacent to major/arterial roads.
§
Create and/or improve buffer areas around land zoned light industrial to reduce environmental impact
and land use conflict.
§
Encourage the use of light industrial land to provide residential support services (including car and
house repairs).
§
Provide a range of lot sizes to accommodate a variety of industry types.
In this instance the IN2 Light Industrial Zone under the Department of Planning’s LEP Template may be
appropriate. The objectives of this zone are to:
§
Provide a wide range of light industrial, warehouse and related land uses;
§
Encourage employment opportunities and to support the viability of centres;
§
Minimise any adverse effect of industry on other land uses; and
Ref: C10059
Page 11
Hill PDA
§
Enable other land uses that provide facilities or services to meet the day to day needs of workers in
the area.
Business Park
Council and the Department of Planning have indicated interest in planning for a Business Park along Windsor
Road west of the intersection with Terry Road equivalent to around 50ha of land. In such a case the following
are key requirements for business parks that should be considered:
§
Business parks should be located in areas that will support the existing network of commercial
centres and can be accessed.
§
Business parks should only permit businesses that require large floor plates (more than 1,000sqm).
Those businesses that are purely office related and require small floor plates (i.e. local accountants,
solicitors, etc) should not be permitted within business parks but encouraged in commercial/retail
centres to help support their viability.
§
An Economic Impact Assessment should be undertaken at the rezoning or development application
stage, which needs to justify their location. It also should include an impact statement with regards to
the established centre hierarchy, and its use of existing and proposed infrastructure; and
§
Future business parks must demonstrate a contribution to subregional economic and job growth.
Based on the analysis within this report, Box Hill has some potential to become an attractive location for
commercial overflow owing to its road connectivity to Rouse Hill Major Centre and forecast residential
populations in the North West Growth Centre. Other attributes of Box Hill include lower land values and rents
comparative to locations and an increasing professional skilled local workforce into the future.
However, given existing, planned and proposed business park developments in Norwest, Rouse Hill, Marsden
Park, and so on, this may be in the very long term. Notwithstanding this, the potential long term take up for
such a use does not preclude planning for it now.
The key is to provide a flexible zoning to allow interim land uses to develop so the land is not sterilised and
undevelopable until such time as commercial office development in this location is desired. The most
appropriate short to medium term land use in this instance would be general industrial. Land uses in this
instance could include the likes of depots, freight transport facilities, warehouses or distribution centres.
In this instance there are various zones under the Department of Planning’s LEP Template which may be
appropriate including the B5 Business Development Zone, B6 Enterprise Corridor Zone and B7 Business Park
Zone. A comparison of the objectives of these zones is provided below:
§
B5 Business Development Zone: enable a mix of business and warehouse uses, and specialised
retail uses that require a large floor area, in locations that are close to, and that support the viability
of, centres.
§
B6 Enterprise Corridor Zone: promote businesses along main roads and to encourage a mix of
compatible uses, provide a range of employment uses (including business, office, retail and light
industrial uses) and residential uses (but only as part of a mixed use development) and maintain the
economic strength of centres by limiting retailing activity.
Ref: C10059
Page 12
Hill PDA
§
B7 Business Park Zone: provide a range of office and light industrial uses, encourage employment
opportunities and enable other land uses that provide facilities or services to meet the day to day
needs of workers in the area.
Part C – Draft Indicative Layout Plan
This report was prepared to assist the design brief for the indicative layout plan. In accordance with the
findings of the report AECOM prepared the draft Indicative Layout Plan. Based on the plan we estimate that a
maximum of approximately 16,300 jobs could be provided – comprising 1,860 full time and part time jobs in the
commercial centres, 10,700 jobs in the business park and 3,800 jobs in the light industrial zone.
The mix is appropriate although the business park at 58 hectares is a little smaller than the 80 hectares
recommended and the industrial zone at 60 hectares is more than adequate to meet BTS job forecasts but a
little below the 100 hectares recommended in this report to meet the 75% job containment target.
The commercial centres zones are a little small to achieve single level retail with at grade parking. To achieve
45,000sqm or more leasable shop front space it will be necessary for the FSR to achieve at least 0.5. This will
require a large proportion of parking and/or loading facilities to be provided either below and/or above the retail
level.
Ref: C10059
Page 13
Hill PDA
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1
Study Background
The North West Subregion of Sydney consists of land within the Local Government Areas of the Hills,
Blacktown and Hawkesbury. The North West represents a large and rapidly growing sector of the Greater
Metropolitan Area of Sydney. The Subregion varies in character from the developed commercial centres of
Castle Hill and Rouse Hill, to wide expanses of open land still actively farmed or reserved as open space for
various purposes.
The North West represents an important source of land to accommodate Sydney’s growing housing needs and
industry requirements. The North West Growth Centre comprises 16 Precincts and is expected to
accommodate 70,000 new dwellings and 200,000 new residents. The integrated growth of the North West as a
self-sustaining urban Subregion is challenged however by its relationship with other Subregions in Sydney,
infrastructure constraints, and the rate of population growth.
To guide Precinct Planning and development within the North West Growth Centre, the NSW Department of
Planning has released the North West Structure Plan. The Structure Plan translates some of the objectives of
the Metropolitan Strategy’s long term planning blue print to the local level.
The NSW Government has released 10 Precincts in the North West Growth Centre, being North Kellyville, Alex
Avenue, Riverstone, Riverstone West, Colebee, Area 20, Marsden Park Industrial, Box Hill, Box Hill Industrial
and Schofields. Precincts within the North West Growth Centre are identified in the following map.
Figure 1 - North West Growth Centre Precinct Boundaries Map (2009)
Source: NSW Department of Planning
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The Precincts that are the subject of this study are Box Hill and Box Hill Industrial. The Box Hill and Box Hill
Industrial Precincts are bounded by Windsor Road to the south west, Old Pitt Town Road and Boundary Road
to the North and the existing Annangrove Road industrial area to the south east. The total Box Hill Precinct
including the industrial area is around 972.5ha and is expected to accommodate around 10,000 dwellings and
around 28,000 people by 2031. Box Hill will be supported by a Town Centre and various smaller lower order
centres.
In masterplanning the Box Hill Precincts the boundary between the industrial and the non-industrial are flexible
and therefore the approach has been to plan for both Precincts as if they were one. Employment uses have
not been limited to the industrial area and certain employment uses (such as commercial and retail) are not
necessarily limited to the non-industrial areas.
2.2
Study Brief and Methodology
Hill PDA has been engaged by the NSW Department of Planning to prepare an Employment and Retail
Assessment for the Box Hill Precincts. To meet the requirements of the project brief, Hill PDA completed the
following key tasks:
§
Analysed retail trends and how industry has adapted to meet these trends.
§
Reviewed demographic data to identify the current and emerging demographic characteristics of Box
Hill and surrounding release areas.
§
Reviewed population growth and dwelling forecasts for Box Hill and surrounding areas.
§
Understood existing and proposed retail provision in surrounding centres to Box Hill and identified the
type of retail supplied compared to competing locations.
§
Identified the trade area of proposed retail in the Box Hill Precinct based on distances, accessibility
and the location and level of offering in other centres.
§
Assessed the quantum of household retail expenditure available to the Box Hill trade area.
§
Translated household expenditure within the trade area to demand for shopfront retail and commercial
floorspace to 2031.
§
Determined and identified appropriate retail and non-retail floorspace requirements for Box Hill (town
and neighbourhood) by retail store type to 2031.
§
Evaluated the impacts of the recommendations on surrounding centres and the North West Structure
Plan.
§
Identified the number and types of retail jobs to be created by the provision of forecast retail
floorspace.
§
Advised on the likely impacts of proposed retail development in Box Hill on surrounding existing and
planned centres.
§
Together with Masterplanning team, provided input into Masterplan options for the Box Hill Precincts.
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§
Analysed industrial and employment trends and how industry has adapted to meet these trends.
§
Reviewed job forecasts targets for Box Hill and the remainder of the North West Growth Centre to
understand the implications on future employment land demand.
§
Understood existing and proposed supply of industrial and other employment lands in the vicinity of
Box Hill.
§
Forecast jobs in Box Hill and the North West Growth Centre to 2031 and identified the number of Blue
Collar and White Collar jobs that will be required in the future to service the population of the
Precincts (for conversion into hectares of industrial land and into square metres of commercial
floorspace).
§
Using Hill PDA’s bespoke Employment Lands Demand Model, forecasted demand for employment
land in the North West Growth Centre to 2031 by industry.
§
Determined the appropriate industrial and employment lands requirements of Box Hill compared to
other locations in the North West Growth Centre given its location and identified job self containment
targets.
§
Determined the appropriate role of the Box Hill Industrial Precinct within the North West Growth
Centre.
§
Identified scenarios for staging of industrial and employment lands development in the Precinct
considering both strategic land use planning objectives, market factors and land take-up.
§
Identified the number and types of jobs to be created by the provision of industrial and employment
lands floorspace within Box Hill.
§
Advised on the likely impacts of proposed retail development in Box Hill on surrounding existing and
planned centres.
§
Together with Masterplanning team, provided input into Masterplan options for the Box Hill Precincts.
2.3
Background Documentation
Hill PDA has reviewed a number of background documents to examine previous and past recommendations
and analysis of Precincts within the North West Growth Centre. These documents included:
§
The Metropolitan Strategy – City of Cities, NSW Department of Planning (2005)
§
Metropolitan Transport Plan – Connecting the City of Cities, NSW Department of Planning (2010)
§
Employment Lands for Sydney Action Plan, NSW Department of Planning (2007)
§
North-West Subregional Strategy (2006-2031), NSW Department of Planning (2007)
§
North-West Structure Plan, NSW Department of Planning (2006)
§
Draft Competition SEPP, NSW Department of Planning (2010)
§
Draft Activity Centres Policy, NSW Department of Planning (2009)
§
Promoting Economic Growth and Competition through the Planning System Review (2009)
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§
Growth Centres Employment and Retail Strategy, SGS Economics and Planning (2009)
§
The Hills Centres Direction, The Hills Shire Council (2009)
§
The Hills Employment Lands Direction, The Hills Shire Council (2009)
§
Draft Local Strategy, The Hills Shire Council (2008)
§
The Hills Residential Direction, The Hills Shire Council (2008)
§
Baulkham Hills Retail Study, Hill PDA (2008)
§
Baulkham Hills Employment Study, Hill PDA (2008)
§
Baulkham Hills Framework for Economic Development, The Hills Shire Council (2007-2011)
§
Baulkham Hills Local Environmental Plan, the Hills Shire Council (2005)
§
Uncertified Draft Hills Shire Local Environmental Plan, the Hills Shire Council (2010)
§
Analysis of Floorspace Demand 2005-2021 - Castle Hill Town Centre Update, Leyshon Consulting
(2005)
§
Box Hill Alternative Town Centre Location, MacroPlan (2010)
§
Hawkesbury Employment Lands Strategy, Adopted Report, SGS Economics and Planning (2008)
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3. PLANNING & POLICY CONSIDERATIONS
The purpose of this Chapter is to identify those policy directions which impact on retail and employment land
uses within the North West Growth Centre and particularly the Box Hill Precincts. Assumptions regarding rates
of population or dwelling growth, centre size (floorspace), industrial land supply and anticipated worker
populations are of particular significance.
3.1
State and Regional Planning
The Metropolitan Strategy – City of Cities (2005)
The Metropolitan Strategy was prepared to facilitate the growth and development of Sydney as a Global City
over a 25 year period. It forecasts that Sydney’s population will grow by 1.1m people from 4.2m to 5.3m by
2031 (from a base year of 2004).
To accommodate this growth the Strategy identifies various targets including:
§
Development of 640,000 new dwellings;
§
Generation of 500,000 new jobs;
§
Provision of 7,500ha of new industrial lands;
§
Development of 6.8m sqm of additional commercial floorspace; and
§
Development of 3.7m sqm of additional retail space.
The Strategy also identifies 5 specific aims being:
1. To Enhance Liveability: by ensuring a choice of housing is provided that is in keeping with
demographic needs, is close to services and protects the character of the environment and
community;
2. Strengthen Economic Competitiveness: by increasing the City’s competitiveness and sharing the
benefits across the region;
3. Ensure Fairness: through access to jobs, services and lifestyle opportunities through the provision of
aligned services and enhanced public transport close to where people live;
4. Protect the Environment: by reducing the City’s use of natural resources and the production of waste;
and
5. Improve Governance: by improving the quality of decision making and community confidence.
The Department of Planning has released a discussion paper, Sydney Towards 2036, which will inform a
scheduled five-year review of the Metropolitan Strategy. Consultation on this discussion paper ended in May
2010. The discussion paper is divided into ten chapters, namely:
§
Planning for a growing population;
§
Making Sydney climate change ready;
§
Integrating land use with transport;
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§
More jobs in the Sydney region;
§
Growing Sydney's value;
§
Strengthening a City of Cities;
§
Meeting changing housing needs;
§
Balancing land uses on the city fringe;
§
Achieving renewal; and
§
Implementation
The Metropolitan Strategy is still currently under review by the Department. Dwelling and employment targets
are expected to be revised in line with the Metropolitan Transport Plan (2010), released earlier this year.
Together these two plans will guide the Subregional Strategies which will also be progressively revised.
Metropolitan Transport Plan – Connecting the City of Cities (2010)
The Metropolitan Transport Plan sets out a 25 year vision for Sydney’s land use planning and is supported by
a 10 year funded package of transport infrastructure. The Plan is intended to be read in conjunction with the
Metropolitan Strategy and ultimately initialised into the revised Strategy.
Integrating the Plan and the Strategy, the future approach to land use planning is based on accelerating
infrastructure roll out and planning processes to ‘grow a transport system shaped around the way the City is
used and moves to meet demand now and into the future’. Under the Plan, the State Government proposes
establishing a Sydney Metropolitan Development Authority to coordinate future transit-oriented development
and urban renewal.
The 10 year program will be built into the NSW State Budget and the State Infrastructure Strategy and
comprises $50.2b in spending. More than $7b is dedicated to new or expanded transport infrastructure and
services. Investment under the plan aims to allow City Rail to increase services by 50% adding six more trains
per hour on most suburban rail lines.
The Transport Plan also sets out revised employment and dwellings targets for the Sydney Metropolitan
Region. Under the Plan, Sydney is expected to accommodate the development of 699,800 dwellings and
generate an additional 713,920 jobs by 2036.
It is noted that these targets differ from those set by the NSW Metropolitan Strategy and their respective
Subregional Strategies.
Employment Lands for Sydney Action Plan (2007)
The NSW Government released an Employment Lands for Sydney Action Plan in March 2007, building upon
the conclusions of the Employment Lands Task Force. This outlined initiatives to advance the planning of
employment lands in Metropolitan Sydney, including establishment of an Employment Lands Development
Program, a commitment to developing a State wide Employment Lands SEPP, investigation of potential new
employment lands, and existing economic renewal areas, and creation of an ongoing Employment Lands
Ministerial Advisory Committee.
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The Action Plan called for more clarity on the future role of employment lands and recommended that
Subregional Strategies identify strategically important employment lands that should be retained for future
employment purposes.
Criteria were developed to consider the strategic importance of different types of employment lands. As
applicable to the North West Subregion, these criteria include:
§
Category 1 lands – those to be retained for industrial purposes (e.g. Castle Hill, Rouse Hill,
Annangrove, Kellyville, Richmond, Eastern Creek);
§
Category 2 lands – those with potential to allow for a wider range of employment uses (e.g. Blacktown
North, Seven Hills, land near Castle Hill station); and
§
Category 3 lands – those that can be investigated for alternative uses.
However, through the review of the Metropolitan Strategy, it’s acknowledged that the status of employment
lands and their importance may change - although the timing of this is unknown.
Draft North West Subregional Strategy (2007-2031)
The NSW Department of Planning’s Draft North West Subregional Strategy (2007-2031) was prepared as part
of the planning process for the Sydney Metropolitan Region in accordance with the Metropolitan Strategy.
Consistent with this overarching plan, the Draft Subregional Strategy provides a range of actions and
objectives for the Subregion covering themes such as: economy and employment, centres and corridors,
housing, transport, environment, heritage and resources, culture and governance. Relevant to this study, the
North West Subregional Strategy provides a number of targets, aims and objectives over a 25 year time frame.
When finalised, the Draft North West Subregional Strategy will continue to guide land-use planning until 2031
in the Baulkham Hills, Blacktown, Blue Mountains, Hawkesbury and Penrith Local Government Areas.
Relevant to this project, key visions for the Subregion by 2031 include:
§
Plan to meet employment and housing capacity targets (the North West will have the highest housing
and job growth in the Sydney Region);
§
Develop Penrith as a Regional City;
§
Strengthen the role of centres;
§
Investigate opportunities for Blacktown Major Centre to emerge as a Regional City;
§
Consider planning for housing growth in centres, compatible with the relevant centres employment
role;
§
Support sufficient supply of commercial office sites in strategic centres;
§
Improve access from and within the Subregion;
§
Protect rural and resource lands;
§
Promote environmental and scenic qualities of the region; and
§
Improve access to open space and recreation opportunities.
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Accordingly, the Draft Subregional Strategy sets a target of accommodating an additional 140,000 dwellings
within the Subregion by 2031.
North West Structure Plan (2006)
The Draft North West Structure Plan (as shown below) is an indicative regional land use plan that will guide the
detailed planning for individual Precincts once they are approved for release by the NSW Government.
Figure 2 - North West Structure Plan (2006)
Source: Growth Centres Commission, North West Structure Plan (2006)
The Structure Plan identifies anticipated residential targets, employment targets and proposed retail and
employment land capacity for precincts in the North West Growth Centre as provided in the following table.
Table 1 - North West Growth Centre Planned Precincts to 2031
Release Precincts
Estimated
Population
Estimated
Dwellings
Estimated Retail
Floorspace Provision
Box Hill
Box Hill Industrial
North Kellyville
Alex Avenue
Riverstone
Riverstone West
Colebee
Area 20
Marsden Park
Schofields
Total
28,000
14,400
18,000
27,000
2,800
3,200
14,000
107,400
10,000
4,500
6,300
9,000
1,000
2,500
TBC
5,000
38,300
20,000-25,000sqm
18,000sqm
25,000sqm
25,000-30,000sqm
30,000-35,000sqm
118,000 - 133,000sqm
Estimated Industrial
and Employment
Land Provision
147ha
14ha
104ha
303ha
Estimate
Number of
Jobs
568ha
22,000
TBC
TBC
12,000
10,000
* Note that all dwelling and job numbers are approximate and will be confirmed during Precinct Planning
Further information on each precinct is provided in Appendix 1 of this report.
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3.2
Local Government Plans and Policies
Both Box Hill Precincts are located within the Hills Shire, however it should be noted that the Precincts are
bound by Blacktown (to the west of Windsor Road) and Hawkesbury (to the north west of Boundary Road)
local government areas.
Baulkham Hills Local Environmental Plan (2005)
Although a new Local Environmental Plan (LEP) will be adopted in the near future, the current Baulkham Hills
LEP (2005) is the principal planning instrument affecting land use within the Hills Shire. Under LEP (2005) the
Box Hill and Box Hill Industrial Precincts are zoned Rural 1(a). Land adjoining the Precincts to the north and
east (suburb of Nelson) are also zoned Rural 1(a).
That adjacent industrial land south of Annangrove Road is zoned Light Industrial 4(b). Under the current LEP,
the objectives of the Light Industrial 4(b) zone generally seek to allow and encourage a wide range of
industrial, warehousing and manufacturing activities, that will contribute to economic and employment growth
in the local government area, requiring a range of floor areas, together with ancillary uses, the opportunity to
locate within that area.
Uncertified Draft Hills Shire Local Environmental Plan (2010)
The Hills Shire Council has drafted a new principal LEP in accordance with the State Government’s Standard
Instrument (Local Environmental Plans) Order 2006.
During 2008 and 2009, Council prepared and exhibited the Local Strategy and accompanying Directions. The
Draft LEP 2010 has been informed by the strategies and actions outlined in the Directions.
In July 2010, Council resolved to forward the Draft LEP 2010 to the NSW Department of Planning to seek
approval to exhibit the Draft Plan for the purpose of public consultation. However, the Draft LEP currently has
not been certified. Notwithstanding this, the Hills Shire Council is allowing its current draft LEP 2010 to be
available to the public, to generally inform the community about the Draft LEP.
Whilst the Department of Planning may make changes to the instrument prior to issue of a section 65
certificate to note:
§
The Box Hill and Box Hill Industrial Precincts are zoned RU2 Rural Landscape;
§
Nelson to the east of the Precincts is zoned RU4 Rural Small Holdings;
§
Land south of Annangrove Road is zoned IN2 Light Industrial; and
§
A small pocket of parkland near Windsor Road and Allan Street is zoned RE1 Public Recreation.
Draft Local Strategy (2008)
The Draft Local Strategy is the principal document for communicating the future planning of the Shire and
includes the objectives of longer term planning projects of the State Government as well as responding to, and
planning for, local needs such as employment, housing and transport. The Draft Local Strategy focuses on 7
key areas of direction including:
§
Residential Direction;
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§
Environment and Leisure Direction;
§
Rural Lands Strategy;
§
Waterways Direction;
§
Employment Lands Direction;
§
Centres Direction; and
§
Integrated Transport Direction.
Of interest to this study are the directions on residential, centres and employment lands.
The Hills Residential Direction (2008)
The Residential Direction aims to give Council, the community and developers a clear strategy for the future
planning and management of residential development and growth to 2031. The Direction reviews progress in
achieving additional dwellings and demonstrates the capacity to accommodate State Government dwelling
targets into the future. It also addresses key housing issues such as special needs housing, affordability,
sustainability, streetscape and residential character.
A range of strategies and actions have been prepared under the following key directions:
§
Accommodating population growth;
§
Respond to changing housing needs;
§
Provide a sustainable living environment; and
§
Facilitate quality housing outcomes.
The potential new dwellings for the Hills Shire, as compared to the North West Subregional Strategy targets
are shown in the following table.
Table 2 - Hills Shire Dwelling Targets to 2031
Location
Carlingford
North Rocks
Northmead
Baulkham Hills
Castle Hill
Bella Vista, Glenhaven, West Pennant Hills
Total Established Areas
Kellyville/Rouse Hill Release Area
Balmoral Road Release Area
Total Release Areas
Total Established and New Release Areas
North Kellyville
Box Hill
Total North West Growth Centre
Total Dwellings
Estimate No.
Additional Dwellings
3,476
283
770
3,338
2,755
478
11,100
4,700
5,625
10,325
21,425
4,500
10,000
14,500
35,925
Subregional
Strategy Target*
21,500
14,500
36,000
* Under the North West Subregional Strategy any new dwelling form June 2004 will contribute to meeting the target dwellings.
Source: Residential Direction, the Hills Shire (2009)
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The Hills Centres Direction (2009)
The Centres Direction was adopted to achieve the creation of vibrant and accessible centres that meet
community needs in the Shire. A range of strategies and actions have been prepared under the following key
directions:
§
Create vibrant centres that meet the needs of the community;
§
Make centres more attractive places to visit;
§
Make centres accessible to the community;
§
Improve the functioning and viability of existing centres; and
§
Plan for new centres in new areas.
The Hills Employment Lands Direction (2009)
The Employment Lands Direction seeks to contribute to the economic growth of the Hills Shire, for local
businesses to grow, meet local service needs and provides opportunities to work close to home. A range of
strategies and actions have been prepared under the following key directions:
§
Accommodate the growth of a modern local economy to meet community needs;
§
Enhance the attractiveness of the Shire for new business and visitors;
§
Promote growth in local business and employment opportunities;
§
Enhance the use and viability of existing employment lands;
§
Plan for new employment lands; and
§
Encourage quality employment lands.
A Structure Plan and Urban Structure Plan illustrate the findings and key directions of the Employment Lands
Direction. The Structure Plans are intended to be conceptual in nature, and are provided to communicate
development that currently exists in the Shire and future development that is anticipated. The Structure Plan is
provided in the following map.
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Figure 3 - Employment Lands Structure Plan (2009)
Source: Employment Lands Direction, the Hills Shire (2009)
In relation to the Box Hill Industrial Precinct the Direction notes:
§
Even with the combination of vacant land within both existing areas of business park, there will still be
demand for additional business park land;
§
Norwest Business Park is likely to reach capacity by 2016. Box Hill Industrial Precinct provides the
opportunity to continue to meet the demand for business park type uses;
§
The Box Hill Industrial Precinct provides the opportunity for the Shire to build on its competitive
strengths; and
§
Whilst vacant land is available in the relatively newer employment precincts of Annangrove Road
Light Industrial Area and Balmoral Road Release Area, the Box Hill Industrial Precinct provides the
opportunity to target specific industries and align planning responses with identified industry and
community needs.
Framework for Economic Development (2007-2011)
Baulkham Hills Shire Council’s 2007 economic development vision is to facilitate sustainable economic
development that promotes growth in:
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§
Local business and industry;
§
Technology uptake and usage;
§
Educated and skilled employees;
§
Tourism visitors and expenditure; and
§
Local employment opportunities for residents.
Given the intentions in Council’s Strategic Plan 2006-2011, and that it is generally accepted that in the longer
term, about 70-80% of new jobs are generated by the firms already established in a region and 20-30% comes
from the investment of new firms. The framework consists of two key objective areas of:
§
Given the above, supporting existing business to increase their capacities to grow jobs is a major
emphasis, and
§
Leverage brand awareness of the region’s capabilities under the increasingly known Sydney Hills
brand to attract new investment, jobs and visitors.
The Economic Development Strategy indicated that, as at 2006, there were 91,985 residents employed who
are living in Baulkham Hills. The estimated number of residents is in the order of 162,000, which equates to an
employment to resident ratio of 56.7%. Baulkham Hills will require an additional 44,000 jobs to be created for
its expected residents either in Baulkham Hills or elsewhere by 2031. Supporting home based businesses, and
identifying and preserving new employment lands for the future will play a major role in achieving this goal.
Access to excellent technology, transport links between employment nodes and telecommunications will also
be critical.
3.3
Other Plans and Policies
Promoting Economic Growth and Competition through the Planning System Review (2010)
In December 2009, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) recognised the need to focus on the
competitive benefits which can be secured through appropriately balanced planning and zoning systems.
COAG agreed to ensure that: opportunities for gaming of appeals processes are minimised; processes are in
place to maintain adequate supply of land suitable for a range of retail activities; and any unnecessary or
unjustifiable protections for existing businesses from new and innovative competitors are eliminated.
As a result, the NSW Government asked the NSW Department of Planning and the Better Regulation Office to
jointly review the impacts of the NSW planning system on competition to ensure it achieves the right balance
between achieving sustainable social and environmental outcomes, and promoting a competitive business
environment. The final report was released April 2010.
In its response, the NSW Government has made 7 recommendations:
1. Develop a Competition State Environmental Planning Policy (SEPP);
2. Clarify that any restriction on the number of a particular type of retail store contained in any LEP or
DCP is invalid;
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3. Specify that any proximity restriction on particular types of retail stores contained in LEPs or DCPs
are invalid;
4. Consider ways to increase opportunities for competition by allowing more types of shops into centres
that currently only permit ‘neighbourhood shops’ (to be addressed in the final Activity Centres Policy);
5. Issue a direction to councils that they must consider applications that divert from the floorspace ratios
in DCPs;
6. Provide guidance on how to consider third party objections when assessing development proposals;
and
7. Issue a 117 Direction to ensure that, unless it can be justified on sound planning grounds, planning
policies and instruments cannot apply retrospectively.
The Department of Planning and the Better Regulation Office are now working on implementing the report's
recommendations. Much of the detail required to thoroughly assess the implications of the Government’s
recommendations has been deferred to the finalisation of the long awaited Activity Centres Policy and the
preparation of the Draft Competition SEPP.
Draft Activity Centres Policy (2009)
In response to the ACCC Inquiry’s call for governments to address how state planning controls may increase
retail competition, the NSW Department of Planning released the Draft Activity Centres Policy. To date the
Draft Policy has been publicly exhibited and submissions reviewed. The revised Policy is yet to be publicly
released although it is in the final review process with both the Department and special interest groups (e.g.
Planning Institute of Australia).
Notwithstanding this, the clear and important message provided by the Draft Policy is that that the market is
best placed to determine the need for development and the supply of available floorspace to accommodate
demand. In light of this position, the Draft Policy advocates six key principles being:
1. The need to reinforce the importance of centres and clustering business activities;
2. The need to ensure the planning system is flexible, allows centres to grow and new centres to form;
3. The market is best placed to determine need. The planning system should accommodate this need
whilst regulating its location and scale;
4. Councils should zone sufficient land to accommodate demand including larger retail formats;
5. Centres should have a mix of retail types that encourage competition; and
6. Centres should be well designed to encourage people to visit and stay longer.
Furthermore, the Draft Policy considers that whilst preference is given to clustering development in existing or
planned centres, if development cannot be accommodated on existing zoned land in centres, alternative sites
will need to be identified to meet the demand. In this respect the policy is flexible and allows for rezoning of
land for development at the edge of or out-of-centre where it can be demonstrated that the development
generally meets the site suitability criteria.
Therefore the Draft Policy provides a ‘Sequential Test’ and ‘Site Suitability Criteria’ to assist with the
assessment of such proposals. Further details of these will be provided when the Policy is released, however
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in essence it must be demonstrated that there are no suitable sites within an existing or planned activity centre
that can satisfy demand to be accommodated.
Draft Competition SEPP (2010)
Following a review undertaken last year by the NSW Department of Planning and the Better Regulation Office
into how economic growth and competition were impacted by the planning system, a new draft State
Environmental Planning Policy (SEPP) has been prepared and has now been placed on public exhibition.
The Draft SEPP proposes that:
§
The commercial viability of a proposed development may not be taken into consideration by a consent
authority, usually the local council, when determining development applications;
§
The likely impact of a proposed development on the commercial viability of other individual
businesses may also not be considered, except if the proposed development is likely to have an
overall adverse impact on the extent and adequacy of local community services and facilities (taking
into account those to be provided by the proposed development itself); and
§
Any restrictions in local planning instruments on the number of a particular type of retail store in an
area, or the distance between stores of the same type, will have no effect.
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Part A
Retail Lands Analysis
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4. ANALYSIS OF RETAIL TRENDS
Over the past three decades significant changes have occurred in the retail industry such as the introduction of
new technologies, the ageing of the population, increased female participation in the workplace and changing
consumer preferences. These changes have placed increased pressure on many existing retail centres to
either adapt or lose market share.
In the 1980s, Australian retail floorspace totalled approximately 1.8sqm per person (excluding commercial
space and automotive retailing), which was roughly divided into equal components of regional, district and
neighbourhood/local centres. Today we have around 2.1sqm per capita due to increasing affluence and
consumerism.
The retail industry’s innovative nature is driven largely by the need to respond to, and anticipate, its customers’
needs and desires. Changing demographics and lifestyles require individual retailers and shopping centres to
constantly monitor these often subtle shifts and respond by repositioning their retail offer, presentation and
mode of operation. The factors that are driving the changing face of retailing in Australia are described as
follows:
§
The increase in the proportion of working women;
§
The increase in the proportion of part-time and casual employment and the reduction in full-time
employment;
§
The reduction in the proportion of households that match the ‘traditional family’ model and an increase
in the number of single persons and single parent households;
§
The increasing disparity of household income, ranging from high double income households to
households that rely on welfare;
§
The ageing of the population; and
§
Increasing working hours for those in full-time employment.
In particular economic rationalism over the past three decades has resulted in increasing household income
disparity. Today there are many families with high disposable incomes and many families that struggle in
poverty. Families are typically cash-rich/time-poor or time-rich/cash-poor. Very few families are both timerich/cash-rich, which provides interesting challenges for the retail industry.
Population growth, rising real disposable incomes and innovation and change within the retail industry have
underpinned a rapid increase in the supply of retail floorspace throughout Australia. Population growth and
increasing levels of disposable income have provided the means to support new retail development, but it is
the innovative nature of the industry itself that has generated major increases in more and larger centres.
Without a doubt the ‘Global Financial Crisis’ has had an impact on the Australian retail property market in the
past couple of years. The period from late 2007 to 2009 was characterised by weaker consumer sentiment and
poor leasing and investment markets (i.e. weak income and capital returns). This trend was common to most
commercial markets nationwide.
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The Federal Government’s stimulus package in 2009 was successful in reversing the downward trend in retail
expenditure. There are now clear signs that consumer sentiment is improving on the back of a strengthening
economy, with a slow and steady recovery now underway.
The long term trends of rising affluence, consumerism and technological change are likely to ensure that retail
expenditure will continue to increase over the long term owing to real growth in retail spend per capita. The
current economic climate is viewed as a short term condition rather than a long term one. In the future it is
inevitable that there will be periods of economic growth and adjustment.
Recent retail trends and their implications are explained further below.
4.1
Greater Size and Diversification
Traditionally retailing has followed a hierarchy from regional through district to small neighbourhood centres. In
the 1950s Australia’s first planned suburban shopping centres replaced the traditional strip centres that had
built up around railway stations. The ample, off-street parking and shopper amenity offered by these new
enclosed malls appealed to customers, especially as motor vehicle usage increased and became more widely
affordable. The first of these suburban centres to open was in Top Ryde in 1957.
The introduction of the discount department store in the mid 1960s spawned a wave of new centre
development and expansion, which continued throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. In the late 1980s and
early 1990s, retail innovations such as food courts, in-centre cinemas, family entertainment centres, library,
medical and other services and larger supermarkets further fuelled increases in centre size and numbers.
Regional centres of more than 60,000sqm of floorspace began to evolve during this time. These centres
generally incorporated a department store, large major tenants and supermarkets. Roselands was the first of
these to be built in 1965 and today there are approximately 35 indoor centres in NSW with retail floor areas
over 30,000sqm. Somewhat later super-regional centres developed in metropolitan Sydney comprising both a
David Jones and a Myer department store and having a total floor area of more than 100,000sqm. There are
now 8 such centres in NSW being in Erina, Parramatta, Hornsby, Macquarie Park, Castle Hill, Miranda,
Warringah and Bondi Junction.
More recently these centres are housing a range of ‘category killers’ or ‘mini-major’ stores. Category killers are
large stores, typically from 400sqm to 3,000sqm, that provide an extensive range and depth of competitively
priced merchandise within a single market segment. Examples include Borders, JB-Hi-Fi, Dick Smith, Lincraft
and Rebel.
Due to competition between centres, there continues to be plans for expansion. Macarthur Square and
Westfield Penrith were recently expanded to more than 80,000sqm each. Even the super-regional centres like
Macquarie Centre, Castle Towers, Warringah Mall are proposing further expansion. Top Ryde, the first
suburban indoor centre, is being redeveloped into a centre of 70,000sqm – almost four times its previous size.
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4.2
New Urbanism
New urbanism has gained popularity in the United States. The recent example of it here is the Rouse Hill Town
Centre. Principally new urbanism refers to a return to a grid road pattern, more intense residential and
employment related uses within walking distance to centres and a return to a ‘main street’ theme rather than
enclosed mall within the town centres.
Rouse Hill Major Centre is a joint venture between Lend Lease and GPT under a land management
agreement. The Rouse Hill Town Centre will be owned, operated and developed solely by the GPT Group. It is
proposed that once the Major Centre is fully established with residents, commercial and retail tenancies, the
Town Centre core only will incorporate approximately:
§
100,000sqm of retail floorspace;
§
40,000sqm of commercial floorspace (including 4,000sqm of learning space);
§
10,000sqm of health/medical floorspace;
§
2,500sqm of library and community floorspace;
§
Approximately 540 residential units within a mix of housing types; and
§
30ha of community open space.
Stage 1 of the Town Centre (as complete and identified as the core) consists of:
§
Over 60,000sqm of retail space;
§
Cinema complex (5,780sqm);
§
2,265sqm of learning facilities;
§
5,607sqm of commercial space;
§
4,309sqm of library and community floorspace; and
§
3,000 car spaces.
The Town Centre core is divided into four quadrants. Within each quadrant there are malls, streets, and
laneways, some of which are enclosed. Total retail floorspace includes:
§
4 anchor tenants - Big W (8,555sqm), Target (6,815sqm), Woolworths (4,605sqm) and Coles
(4,116sqm);
§
4 mini major tenants;
§
More than 200 specialty stores (of which approximately 28 are food specialties) equivalent to
22,000sqm; and
§
2 main food courts.
The remainder of the future floorspace attributed to the Town Centre includes further commercial and
residential floorspace around the perimeter of the core.
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Rouse Hill Town Centre incorporates the principles of ecologically sustainable design. The Town Centre has
an overall ecological footprint of 25% less than a standard regional shopping centre, using 40% less energy
and 60% less water. Other ESD initiatives include:
§
Installation of a 150,000 litre water tank which collects enough water for around 20% of the Town
Centres needs;
§
130,000 tonnes of recycled materials were used in the construction of the centre;
§
All retailers have completed an Ecological Footprint Calculator to help them keep their energy and
water consumption to a minimum;
§
Maximise natural light and minimise artificial lighting requirements;
§
Parking for 300 bicycles; and
§
Zero waste landfill plan with an initial objective of recycling 60% of all waste produced.
To date, Rouse Hill Town Centre is trading relatively well. In the year to September 2009, the Centre turned
over $324.9m, equating to $5,377/sqm based on retail floorspace1. In addition, residential sales for the New
Rouse Hill are progressing, which is expected to improve the Town Centre’s retail turnover.
4.3
Convenience Shopping
The concept of retail convenience for the consumer has expanded considerably, particularly over the past two
decades. Previously it meant physical proximity, usually to home. With two income families where partners
might work in quite different locations, and where an increasing choice of time-consuming activities compete
with shopping, the concept of retail convenience is becoming far less location specific and more performance
oriented. Consumers want one-stop shopping at hours convenient to them.
One response from the retail industry has been the development of ’convenience community centres’. These
are usually dominated by a supermarket to meet daily and weekly shopping needs but they also include a
range of specialty shops such as butcher, fruit shop, liquor shop, take-away food, video rental and petrol
station. Where they differ from traditional neighbourhood centres around railway stations is that a large
proportion of their turnover comes from commuters in the PM peak on the way home and so they have
generally located themselves on the PM peak side of main roads. They also provide ample parking and
convenient access in and out to the main road. The Woolworths Marketplace format is an example, as seen in
Eaglevale and Rosemeadow.
Another response has been the emergence of ‘convenience service centres’ which are petrol stations on main
highways but also offering a ‘just-in-time’ shop with a range of groceries and fast foods (e.g. 7 Eleven, Quix,
Ampol Shop Stop, BP Shop). Typically the size of the food, groceries and take-away foods component is
around 150-500sqm.
Highway service centres have been gaining in popularity largely due to convenience and time-savings.
Generally these stores are not the main destination for food and grocery shopping but they offer a range of
1
NSW/ACT PCA Shopping Centres Directory 2009
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products for ‘just-in-time’ shoppers.
Restaurant, Burger King, KFC, Quix)
4.4
They can include several operators such as McDonalds Family
Deregulation of Hours
One of the biggest changes the retail industry has made recently to meet the changing needs of consumers is
the introduction of seven day trading. More people are juggling careers and family and increasingly must
squeeze shopping in where they can rather than adhere to a standard schedule.
Busy shoppers today are also less inclined to spend as much time as they once did wandering through vast
shopping complexes. While younger shoppers, and especially teenagers, do stay longer in shopping centres,
the trend is towards a decline in average time spent shopping – particularly in relation to what is considered
‘chore’ shopping – shopping for food and groceries.
In addition, most forms of activity in centres now operate with extended shopping hours. This is evident in
Coles and Woolworths Supermarkets which open until 10pm and midnight. K-Mart has commenced operating
24 hours a day/7 days per week in some locations, such as Penrith, Hornsby, Blacktown and Mount Druitt.
Most other K-Mart stores open until midnight on most nights during the week, such as Castle Hill and
Stanhope Gardens.
4.5
Changes in Supermarkets
Beginning in the 1980s the suburban supermarket increased in size and diversity of retail offer. The objective
was to provide for a large choice of food and groceries under one roof with one convenient check-out. Over
time supermarkets began to expand the range to include fresh foods, meats, delicatessen, pharmaceuticals
and even some non-food items such as toys, clothing, manchester and small appliances.
More recently there has been some return to smaller supermarkets and corner stores, particularly in inner city
areas. This has resulted largely from the need to increase supply to meet an expanding, more affluent, inner
city market. But with the logistical difficulties in acquiring large sites it has resulted in smaller supermarkets –
sometimes in mixed use developments combined with a stronger reliance on patrons shopping by foot –
particularly in high density areas.
Woolworths, and to a lesser extent Coles, have dominated the supermarket industry. Woolworths continue to
out perform other supermarket operators. The linking of supermarket operations to discounted petrol has also
benefited the two main operators. More recently Woolworths and Coles have been acquiring category killers
such as Dick Smith, Dan Murphy’s Liquor, Liquorland and the like. This along with ownership of the major
discount department stores is continuing to strengthen the quasi-duopoly in the industry.
Notwithstanding this, we have seen ALDI opening up numerous food stores in NSW over the past decade
providing some competition to Coles and Woolworths. However ALDI has also provided some complementary
role since ALDI stores have fewer product lines at discounted prices and can attract shoppers from further
area by having a geographically wider and thinner (less people) trade area than the full-line supermarkets.
There are several ALDI stores located near Box Hill, including stores in Baulkham Hills, Dural, North Rocks,
Seven Hills, Richmond, McGraths Hill, Rouse Hill and Quakers Hill.
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Supabarn is also beginning to open some other supermarkets in metropolitan areas after already establishing
itself through 3 stores in the ACT. Supabarn, which has operated a supermarket in Five Dock for some time, is
also beginning to open some other supermarkets in the metropolitan area including the one under construction
in Sutherland and one planned for San Souci. Supabarn features a complete gourmet delicatessen and
seafood department. Supabarn will be a fairly direct competitor to Woolworths and Coles.
US discount retail giant Costco has identified the Asia-Pacific Region as a key area of growth, particularly in
Australia. Costco is a membership warehouse club that provides a wide selection of merchandise at a
substantially lower price to both businesses and individuals. Costco Warehouses provide groceries, electrical
appliances, automotive supplies, hardware, sporting goods, homewares, apparel, health & beauty goods,
furniture and office supplies. It operates 7 days a week for its members.
Costco’s first warehouse in Australia opened in August 2009 in the Docklands in Melbourne. It is understood
that a second Australian warehouse has been recently approved. The 17,000sqm (approximately) premises
will be located on Parramatta Road in Auburn in Sydney’s West. Costco’s Australian head office will also be
located here. Construction is likely to commence in late 2010 with opening expected by mid 2011.
Costco plans to open 5-6 new warehouses in Australian over the next 3 years. The emergence of Costco in
Australia will likely intensify the battle between Coles and Woolworths.
4.6
Out of Centre Retailing
In the late 1980s new forms of retail centres emerged such as the ‘category killer’ and ‘power centres’.
Bunnings, Toys R Us, IKEA, Officeworks, Babyco, Baby Kingdom, Harvey Norman, Borders, The Good Guys
and various bedding specialists are notable examples of category killers in Australia. The financial success of
these stores has been mixed as demonstrated by the failure of Coles Myer ‘World 4 Kids’ and ‘Megamart’ and
the strong performances of others such as JB Hi-Fi and Bunnings.
Whilst many category killers locate in ‘out of centre’ locations others can be found in regional shopping centres
and are generally classified as ‘mini-majors’. Borders and JB Hi-Fi are successful examples generally found in
the large major-regional and super-regional centres.
Beginning in the 1980s and expanding considerably through the 1990s were power centres. Power centres,
also known as ‘big box’ centres, consist of a collection of category killers and other specialist retailers (often
retailers of bulky goods) and are usually located in secondary areas such as light industrial zones. Fit out is
minimal and rents per square metre are significantly lower than in traditional centres.
Some power centres have a theme, such as a homemaker centre (hardware, carpets, tiles, furniture,
kitchen/bath, etc). Relevant examples include Totally Home Bella Vista, Supa Centre Castle Hill, Castle Hill
Homemaker Centre and Norwest Homemaker Centre. Power centres however can also trade successfully with
a wide mix of traders (auto accessories, toys, sports, and clothing). These are destination shopping venues
and people are prepared to travel further to access a larger range at more competitive prices than can be
offered by traditional department, discount department and specialty stores.
Bulky goods retailing, factory outlets and clearance centres in traditional industrial areas integrating
warehousing with retail space are also recent innovations. As with power centres, they rely on low rents. While
purpose-built factory outlets are common in the United States, most of Australia’s major factory outlet centres
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occupy premises formerly occupied by traditional retailers, factories or other uses – e.g. Birkenhead Point and
DFO Homebush.
4.7
Bulky Goods Retailing
Bulky goods retailing is often described as low cost/high bulk retail goods and ancillary products. Retailers of
these goods and products have identified financial benefits in lower occupancy costs and economies of scale
outside of established high-rent and high-cost retail centres.
Bulky goods retailing first appeared as showrooms attached to distribution and warehousing industries. Over
time bulky goods strip retailing and centres have attracted a number of furniture, appliance retailers and
hardware stores such as Harvey Norman, Domayne, Bing Lee, BabyCo, Bunnings, bedding shops, lighting
shops, etc. In NSW, bulky goods retailing has been one of the fastest growing sectors, doubling in size over
the last 6 years.
Bulky goods can take the form of strip retailing along a major highway (e.g. Parramatta Road Auburn, Mulgoa
Road Penrith and Victoria Road Castle Hill). Alternatively it can be in a stand alone building or “power centre”
as mentioned in Section 4.6 e.g. Blacktown Mega Centre.
More recently there have been non-bulky goods retailers attracted to these peripheral locations including for
example The Warehouse Group which is a discount variety store, video rental stores, large liquor stores, and
factory outlets. Fast foods (such as McDonalds, Pizza Hut and KFC) and highway based convenience stores
have also located in bulky goods Precincts.
4.8
Changing Shifts in Trade
The trends discussed in this Chapter are polarising the retail hierarchy with the larger regional centres
positioning themselves for a more dominant role in the provision of entertainment and customer services
matched with increased retail floorspace. The more successful smaller centres have moved towards the
concept of convenience centres with greater emphasis on food retailing, just-in-time shopping, fast foods, local
services and petrol.
Examples include the Woolworths Market Place concept – smaller shopping centres anchored by a Big W
discount department store and/or a Woolworths supermarket plus around 50 specialty stores. Examples of
Woolworths Market Place shopping centres include Rosemeadow, Eaglevale, Windsor, West Ryde, Carnes
Hill and Richmond.
More and more we are witnessing shifts in trading patterns in a number of areas. In competing for consumer
dollars some centres are winning and others are losing. The trends can be summarised as follows:
§
Regional and super-regional centres are expanding and taking trade away from district centres and
even some neighbourhood centres. These regional centres are capturing a larger proportion of trade
by increasing their retail offer and providing a range of activities including entertainment, comparative
goods shopping and convenience shopping with larger supermarkets;
§
Convenience centres on major roads are taking trade away from the traditional neighbourhood
centres that are based around public transport nodes. This is evident with some traditional retail
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centres that have experienced rising vacancies and the introduction of “low rental” tenants without
fitout costs to fill the vacancies (e.g. liquidators, etc);
§
Bulky goods retailers on the fringe of large shopping centres and in industrial areas are taking trade in
bulky goods away from the traditional retail centres. In 1990-91 40% of department stores’ turnover
was in bulky goods commodities (furniture, floor coverings, electrical appliances, hardware,
homeware, sports and camping goods, soft furnishings). This figure fell to 25% by 1998-99 and is
probably less than 20% today. The large national department stores are also continuing to lose trade
to the rise of discount department stores;
§
Older style centres typically located at train stations have lost market share. This is particularly the
case with centres that shoppers experience difficulty in access and parking and where there is a poor
retail mix and lack of major tenants by contemporary standards; and
§
Some traditional centres have become successful through reinvention of their role / theming,
marketing and improvement programs – in some cases developing into an ‘eat street’ theme or ethnic
theme (e.g. Asian or Arabic).
4.9
Internet Shopping
Internet shopping (also called e-tailing and electronic retailing) is a retail format in which the retailer and
customer communicate with each other through an interactive electronic network. A growing proportion of
Australians have access to the internet at home. The rate of access has quadrupled in recent years, from 16%
of households in 1998 to 64% in 2006-07.
In 2006-07, 61% of the 11.3 million people who used the internet at any site reported using it in the past 12
months to buy goods or services for private use. Among all age groups, people aged between 25-34 years
were most likely to have used the internet for this purpose (71%).
Despite increasing household access to the internet, the growth in internet shopping has not been as dramatic
as predicted by some futurists in the early 1990s. Currently internet shopping accounts for no more than about
5% of total retail sales. Most sales have been made by higher socio-economic households and only with
commodities that are suited for that type of shopping including second hand items, music, computer hardware
and software and office durables. In many cases internet shopping is used to acquire knowledge, rather than
make purchases.
Electronic retailing is thus generally considered to have some growth potential. But this will be dependent on
whether or not it can, and is perceived to be able to, provide superior benefits over existing retail formats. The
critical benefit that electronic retailers can offer is the opportunity for consumers to search across a broad
range of alternatives, develop a smaller set of alternatives based on their needs, and get specific information
about the alternatives they want.
Whilst there may be some opportunity for internet shopping to capture an increasing proportion of total retail
sales, the impact will not be as dramatic as initially forecast as shoppers still preferring to shop physically as
the best method of comparing goods, brands, stores and prices and as a means of entertainment / leisure and
socialising. Accordingly the impact to traditional bricks and mortar retailers is not likely to be as significant or
detrimental as initially forecast.
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5. RETAIL FLOORSPACE SUPPLY
This Chapter reviews retail and commercial floorspace supply data from previous studies and background
information. This information has been supplemented from Hill PDA’s own database of floorspace supply along
with the Property Council of Australia’s Shopping Centres Directory (2010) and other sources where indicated.
The purpose of this review is to understand the size and significance of existing centres when compared to
their level in the retail hierarchy, and their quantum and mix of retail and commercial land uses. It also provides
a benchmark for understanding the potential size and retail mix of future centres in the North West Growth
Centre, along with understanding the impact of new retail centres on surrounding established centres.
5.1
Retail Hierarchy
The Draft North West Subregional Strategy (2006-2031) identifies a typology for centres within the Subregion
as indicated in the following table.
Table 3 - North West Subregion Centres Hierarchy
Centre Typology
Regional City
Major Centre
Specialised
Centre
Stand Alone
Shopping Centre
Town Centre
Planned Town
Centres
Village
Small Villages
Neighbourhood
Centres
Characteristics
Offer a full range of business, government, cultural,
entertainment & recreational activities. A focal point for
regional transport & provides jobs.
Major shopping & business centre serving the Subregion
with large shopping malls, specialist retail, medical
services, taller office & residential buildings, council
offices, and a minimum 8,000 jobs.
Areas containing major airports, ports, hospitals,
universities, research and business activities. These
perform a vital economic and employment role which
generates metropolitan–wide benefits.
Internalised, privately owned centres located away from
other commercial areas, containing many of the attributes
of a Town Centre but without housing or public open
space—may have potential to become a traditional town
centre in the long–term.
Town Centres have one or two supermarkets, community
facilities, medical centre, schools, etc. Contain between
4,500 and 9,500 dwellings. Usually a residential origin
than employment destination.
The strategy identifies a number of planned local centres
through the North West Growth Centre. The future role of
the local centres will be determined by Local Government
over the life of the Strategy.
A strip of shops and surrounding residential area within a
5 to 10 minute walk contains a small supermarket,
hairdresser, take–away food shops. Contain between
2,100 and 5,500 dwellings.
A small strip of shops and adjacent residential area within
a 5 to 10 minute walk. Contain 150 to 900 dwellings.
One or a small cluster of shops & services. Contain 150 to
900 dwellings.
Centres
Penrith CBD
Blacktown, Castle Hill, Rouse Hill
(planned)
Norwest
Winston Hills
Baulkham Hills, Katoomba, North
Rocks, Richmond, Seven Hills,
Springwood, St Marys, Stanhope
Gardens, Windsor
Box Hill, Marsden Park,
Schofields/ Nirimba
Various
Various
Various
Source: Draft North West Subregional Strategy (2006-2031), NSW Department of Planning
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The Centres and Villages surrounding Box Hill are illustrated in the map below.
Figure 4 - Box Hill Centres Hierarchy
Source: MapInfo, NSW Department of Planning, Hill PDA 2010
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5.2
Summary of Existing Supply
The total amount of existing shopfront floorspace (GLA) attributed to centres surrounding Box Hill are shown in
the following table.
Table 4 - Existing Supply by Floorspace (sqm GLA)
Retail Centre
Castle Hill Major Centre
Rouse Hill Major Centre
Norwest Specialised Centre
Baulkham Hills Town Centre
Stanhope Gardens Town Centre
Windsor Town Centre*
Richmond Town Centre*
Kellyville
Beaumont Hills
Bella Vista
Round Corner
Quakers Hill
Riverstone Village*
Retail
Commercial
134,273
67,392
14,690
22,000
13,874
14,265
22,587
12,790
3,000
1,000
9,500
5,000
2,283
36,600
6,340
13,000
500
1,000
-
Total Shopfront
Floorspace**
170,873
73,732
14,690
35,000
13,874
14,265
22,587
12,790
3,000
1,500
9,500
6,000
2,283
Bulky Goods
62,526
29,000
21,099
850
-
*Excludes strip retailing.
** Shopfront retail plus shopfront commercial.
Sources: PCA Shopping Centres Directory (2010), Hill PDA Floorspace Surveys, Baulkham Hills Retail Floorspace & Demand Analysis (Hill PDA
2008), Various Consultants Reports (e.g. Leyshon 2005).
Shopfront space is defined as that lettable area which is occupied by retailers plus non-retail users that occupy
shopfront spaces (such as banks, travel agents, medical services, real estate agents, etc) and vacant
shopfront space.
The results indicate that Castle Hill as the Major Centre closest to Box Hill accounts for over 170,000sqm of
shopfront floorspace. This is followed by Rouse Hill (73,700sqm), Norwest (14,700sqm) and Baulkham Hills
(35,000sqm). It is recognised that Norwest as a Specialised Centre also includes around 29,000sqm of bulky
goods and a further 377,000sqm of stand alone commercial floorspace.
In the North West Subregion, the Castle Towers and Rouse Hill Town Centre shopping centres dominate with
around 108,000sqm (GLA) and 70,000sqm (GLA) of retail shopfront floorspace respectively.
Box Hill is also located in relatively close proximity to Blacktown (Major Centre), Richmond (Town Centre),
Seven Hills (Town Centre), North Rocks (Town Centre), as well as a number of other Small Villages and
Neighbourhood Centres.
The following table summarises retail floorspace by enclosed shopping centre or mall within close proximity of
Box Hill. This includes some bulky goods homemaker centres. This comparison not only informs supply but
gives an indication of the retail mix and size of comparable retail centres to what may be provided in Box Hill.
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Table 5 - Existing Supply by Shopping Centre (sqm GLA)
Shopping Centres
Castle Towers
Castle Mall
Knightsbridge
Oakhill Village
Rouse Hill Town Centre
Rouse Hill Village
Norwest Marketown
CircaRetail Norwest
Stockland Baulkham Hills
Stanhope Village
Windsor Marketplace
Windsor Riverview*
Richmond Marketplace
Richmond Mall
Kellyville Plaza
Beaumont Hills*
Dural Mall*
Riverstone Marketown
Woodcroft Plaza
Kings Langley
Westfield North Rocks
Totally Home Bella Vista (BG)
Supa Centre Castle Hill (BG)
Castle Hill Homemaker (BG)
Blacktown Mega Centre (BG)
Department
Store
30,562
-
Discount
Department Supermarket
Store
14,703
8,622
1,820
750
500
15,370
8,721
1,582
4,385
2,880
8,373
8,023
4,065
3,651
3,500
6,680
4,746
4,486
3,846
1,800
4,000
1,340
2,646
3,092
7,305
5,137
-
Mini Major
Specialties^
Total
Floorspace
6,709
1,915
750
-
47,827
6,017
1,000
1,058
44,909
2,390
5,105
2,320
7,991
1,786
4,614
2,500
5,618
1,057
1,873
1,200
4,750
943
2,015
2,158
10,198
-
108,423
9,752
1,750
1,558
69,000
3,972
9,490
5,200
16,364
13,874
8,265
6,000
17,044
5,543
5,719
3,000
9,500
2,283
4,661
5,250
22,640
21,099
52,155
10,411
26,529
Note: BG = Bulky Goods. * Hill PDA Estimate. ^ May include Mini Majors e.g. Rouse Hill Town Centre
Sources: PCA Shopping Centres Directory (2010), Hill PDA Floorspace Surveys, Baulkham Hills Retail Floorspace & Demand Analysis (Hill PDA
2008), Various Consultants Reports (e.g. Leyshon 2005).
These shopping centres (and their anchor tenants) are illustrated in the following map.
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Figure 5 - Box Hill Surrounding Retail
Source: MapInfo, Hill PDA 2010
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5.3 Castle Hill Major Centre
Castle Hill is described as a Major Centre under the North West Subregional Strategy. It is located around
17km south-east of Box Hill. Castle Hill is a popular destination for food, clothing, personal and household
goods shopping, and entertainment. In addition to David Jones, Myer and the discount department stores, it
has a small range of bulky goods stores.
The area is dominated by Castle Towers Shopping Centre on the western side of Old Northern Road and
some industrial areas such as Victoria Road, west of Castle Hill. Other shopping centres include Castle Mall,
Oakhill Village and Knightsbridge. In addition, there is some strip retail along Old Northern Road, Terminus
Street, Crane Road, Barwell Avenue, and McMullen Avenue, totalling some 12,790sqm of retail space 2.
Victoria Road in Castle Hill has developed into a popular bulky goods and light industrial area. These outlets
achieve considerable turnover on weekends with bulky goods shoppers.
There is also around 36,600sqm of traditional commercial space located in Castle Hill3.
Castle Towers
Castle Towers is the largest shopping centre in the North-West and has an extended trade area for
comparative shopping that covers the Hills Shire and the suburbs of Cherrybrook and West Pennant Hills.
Castle Towers is one of only six shopping centres in the Sydney Metropolitan Area to contain two full-line
department stores (Myer and David Jones).
Castle Towers has a total centre area of around 108,423sqm (GLA). It has several anchors including David
Jones (16,108sqm), Myer (14,454sqm), Kmart (7,427sqm), Target (7,266sqm), Coles (4,366sqm) and Bi Lo
(4,256sqm). There are also 336 specialty shops over 3 levels providing an additional 40,600sqm of floorspace
as well as a Greater Union cinema. Recent expansions in 2009 included a new level of Myer and Rebel Sport.
It is understood that a development application was lodged mid 2006, for the expansion of Castle Towers
(Stage 3). The expansion includes development on the site bound by Kentwell Avenue, Castle Street, Old
Northern Road and Showground Road. Plans identify a new supermarket of around 3,750sqm, and a new
discount department store of around 6,500sqm aligning with Showground Road. An additional 97 new specialty
shops are proposed, along with 8 kiosks, and 7 restaurants/café. It’s understood that construction will
commence in mid 2011 at the earliest.
Castle Towers had a reported turnover of $6,852/sqm in 2009, slightly above the average of other large
centres in Australia ($6,664/sqm) 4.
2
Leyshon Consulting 2005
3
Hill PDA 2008
4
Shopping Centre News, Big Guns 2010
Ref: C10059
Page 43
Hill PDA
Castle Mall
Castle Mall, located on Terminus Street, contains 9,752sqm of retail space. Majors and mini-majors include
Franklins (1,820sqm), The Warehouse (1,937sqm), Harris Farm, Liquorland, Dick Smith and Direct Shoe
Warehouse. There are also around 55 specialty shops providing just over 6,000sqm of space. The Centre has
an annual turnover of $41.65m, equating to $4,271/sqm5. This is significantly below the average for similar
sized centres in Australia ($6,888/sqm) 6.
Knightsbridge Shopping Centre
Knightsbridge Shopping Centre is located between Castle Hill and Glenhaven. Its role is primarily as a
neighbourhood shopping centre for food, groceries, and local services. Its trade area covers the north western
parts of Castle Hill as well as southern Glenhaven.
The two level shopping centre is anchored by an IGA Supa supermarket (750sqm) and includes 10 specialty
shops. The Centre also includes a medical centre (700sqm).
Oakhill Village Shopping Centre
Oakhill Village Shopping Centre is a small neighbourhood shopping centre that includes a small IGA
supermarket and liquor store plus a further 14 specialty shops. It provides almost 1,600sqm of retail
floorspace.
5.4
Rouse Hill is described as a Planned Major Centre under the North West Subregional Strategy, with the retail
component known as Rouse Hill Town Centre. The Town Centre incorporates ‘New urbanism’ with a return to
a ‘main street’ theme rather than enclosed mall within the town centres. The Rouse Hill Town Centre is
located on Windsor Road on the border of the suburbs of Rouse Hill, Beaumont Hills and Kellyville Ridge,
around 5.5km south of Box Hill.
As of 2009 the Town Centre had a total retail area of 69,000sqm. Once fully developed, it will provide over
100,000sqm of retail floorspace. The Town Centre core is divided into four quadrants. Within each quadrant
there are malls, streets, and laneways, some of which are enclosed.
Existing total retail floorspace includes 4 anchor tenants being Big W (8,555sqm), Target (6,815sqm),
Woolworths (4,605sqm) and Coles (4,116 sqm) as well as 4 mini major tenants, 232 specialty stores
(equivalent to 36,329sqm), a 5,780sqm Reading Cinema (9 screens) and 2 main food courts.
To date, Rouse Hill Town Centre is trading relatively well. In the year to September 2009, the retail centre
turned over $324.9m, equating to $5,377/sqm based on retail floorspace7. Future residential sales for the New
Rouse Hill are expected to improve the Town Centre’s retail turnover.
5
6
Shopping Centre News, Mini Guns 2009 – Shopping Centres between 6,000sqm and 20,000sqm
7
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
5.5
Norwest is around 15km south-east of Box Hill. Norwest includes a large business park, residential dwellings
and a diverse range of retail. The retail provision includes the Norwest Marketown Shopping Centre, the new
CircaRetail shopping centre, a specialised bulky goods centre and a number of scattered retail premises.
Retail provision within the Norwest Business Park serves both the local worker and resident population.
Norwest Marketown is anchored by a 4,385sqm Coles supermarket and has 35 specialties. The centre was
opened in 1999 and has a total area of almost 10,000sqm. The centre caters for the majority of the workers in
the Business Park. Current planning controls anticipate the transition of Norwest Marketown from a ‘Village’
scale centre into a full ‘Town Centre’ scale development, with a total of around 15,000sqm of retail floorspace.
It is understood that Council has approved two Development Applications that will add 2,500sqm to the centre
when constructed.
CircaRetail is located in South Norwest Business Park (West Bella Vista) and features a 2,880sqm Woolworths
supermarket as the anchor tenant and 1,010sqm of speciality stores as well as a food court. The centre
opened in June 2009 and has a total area of 3,890sqm. CircaRetail is part of the 14.5ha Circa land release.
Circa is the final land release for Norwest and includes the Norwest Private Hospital. Once completed the
precinct will comprise 300,000sqm of commercial, retail, leisure and community uses. It is expected to
accommodate over 10,000 people.
The owner of Circa Business Centre Mulpha FKP submitted a proposal to Council for an additional 2,500sqm
of retail floor space including a 1,500sqm supermarket. A planning proposal was submitted to the Department
of Planning in July 2010.
5.6
Town Centres
Baulkham Hills
Baulkham Hills Town Centre provides for the retail, civic, commercial, transport and recreational needs of the
surrounding population of Baulkham Hills. The Town Centre is located around 20km south-east of Box Hill. As
of 2008 there was around 22,000sqm of retail floorspace in Baulkham Hills.
Stockland Baulkham Hills is the major shopping centre in the town centre. The 16,364sqm centre is anchored
by Woolworths (3,910sqm), Coles (3,034sqm) and Aldi (1,429sqm) plus 96 specialties (7,991sqm). The centre
had a reported turnover of $7,744/sqm in 2009. This is around 12% higher than the average turnover for
similar sized shopping centres in Australia ($6,888/sqm) 8.
Stanhope Gardens
Located within Blacktown LGA, Stanhope Gardens Town Centre is around 11km south of Box Hill. Stanhope
provides convenience retail to the surrounding suburbs of Stanhope Gardens, and Parklea, as well as parts of
Acacia Gardens, Quakers Hill and Kellyville Ridge.
8
Shopping Centre News Mini Guns 2009
Ref: C10059
Page 45
Hill PDA
Owned and operated by Mirvac, Stanhope Village Shopping underwent expansions in 2006/2007 which
included an additional 7,741sqm of retail space to increase the overall centre size to around 13,870sqm. The
expansion included a Kmart discount department store (5,060sqm), which joined the other anchor Coles
(3,629sqm) and 70 specialties (5,185sqm). There is also a 586sqm medical centre. The centre has a reported
turnover of $6,512/sqm in 20099. This is around 5% lower than the average turnover for similar sized shopping
centres in Australia ($6,888/sqm).
Windsor
Windsor Town Centre is located around 13km north-west of Box Hill. Retail floorspace in Windsor is mainly
provided through Windsor Riverview Shopping Centre and Windsor Marketplace. In addition, there is also
considerable strip retailing along George Street, including a Country Target store.
Opening in 2009, Windsor Marketplace is anchored by Woolworths (3,651sqm) plus 12 specialties (4,614sqm).
It has a total area of 8,265sqm and includes 160 car spaces. It replaces the previous Windsor Town Centre
which Woolworths acquired in 2007.
Windsor Riverview Shopping Centre is located around 350m to the west of Windsor Marketplace on George
Street. The centre is anchored by a full line Coles supermarket and 35 specialties and has over 300 car
spaces.
Richmond
Richmond Town Centre is located 19km from Box Hill. Richmond Marketplace and Richmond Mall are the
main providers on retail floorspace within the Town Centre. In addition, there is also considerable strip retailing
along Windsor and East Market Streets.
The 17,044sqm Richmond Marketplace is anchored by Big W (6,668sqm) and Woolworths (4,746sqm) and
includes 58 specialties (5,630sqm). By comparison Richmond Mall is a neighbourhood shopping centre of
5,543sqm anchored by Coles (4,486sqm) and 11 specialties (1,057sqm).
Kellyville
The Kellyville Retail Precinct is predominantly located on Wrights Road, around 13km south-east of Box Hill. It
includes the Coles based Kellyville Plaza (opened 2003), and an adjacent Woolworths supermarket.
The 5,680sqm (GLA) Kellyville Plaza is anchored by a 3,846sqm Coles supermarket and includes 20 specialty
stores (1,873sqm). The adjacent Woolworths supermarket is around 4,460sqm, bringing total retail floorspace
in the Wrights Road Retail Precinct to around 10,140sqm.
In addition to Wrights Road, there is strip retail and commercial primarily located along Windsor Road, north of
Memorial Avenue. Its role is primarily as a convenience neighbourhood centre for food and groceries, and local
services for Kellyville residents. This includes Kellyville Court which is a small shopping centre of 11 shops
including a small IGA supermarket and 500sqm of specialty shops.
9
Shopping Centre News Mini Guns 2009
Ref: C10059
Page 46
Hill PDA
There is also around 2,000sqm of retail space and 2,500sqm of restaurant/tavern space on the corner of
Windsor Road and Merriville Road in Kellyville Ridge. This includes a Woolworths petrol station convenience
store with bakery, McDonalds restaurant, and a large Dan Murphies outlet of around 1,800sqm.
5.7
Village Centres
Rouse Hill
The Rouse Hill Village Centre is located on the corner of Windsor Road and Aberdour Avenue, around 1.5km
north of the new Rouse Hill Town Centre and 6km south of Box Hill. The 3,972sqm centre is anchored by a
1,582sqm Franklins supermarket and 15 specialties providing an additional 2,390sqm of floorspace. The
Village Centre also includes a small medical centre.
More recently a 1,500sqm Aldi supermarket, McDonalds Restaurant, Red Rooster, Hungry Jacks, 1,800sqm of
commercial space and 1,500sqm of additional retail specialty floorspace has been developed directly adjacent
to the Village Centre along Windsor Road.
Riverstone
Riverstone Marketown is an older small shopping centre located on Riverstone Parade, around 5km southwest of Box Hill. The centre is anchored by a 1,340sqm Franklins supermarket and has 11 specialty shops
providing a further 943sqm of floorspace. In addition, there is also considerable strip retailing along Garfield
Road East and Riverstone Parade.
Round Corner
Dural Mall, Round Corner is a Village Centre located 15km south-east from Box Hill. The size of this centre
suggests that it has a district size trade area that encompasses the suburbs of Dural, Galston, Glenhaven and
Kenthurst. It also provides a convenience role for weekly food and grocery shopping, being anchored by a
Woolworths supermarket, a 1,200sqm Aldi and an 850sqm hardware store. There are also 80 specialty shops.
Quakers Hill
Located 14km south of Box Hill, Quakers Hill is a Village consisting of a retail strip along Douglas Road and
Nirimba Drive that provide a convenience retail role for the surrounding residential community. Shops include
an Indian grocery store, bakery, takeaway food, pharmacy, butcher, medical practice, real estate agent, and so
on.
In addition, there is a Village located to the north on Farnham Road that includes a neighbourhood shopping
centre. Shops include a Franklins supermarket, video hire, several restaurant/takeaway shops, plus other
convenience based stores. Furthermore, there is a stand alone Aldi store located on the corner of Bali Drive
and Hambledon Road.
Ref: C10059
Page 47
Hill PDA
5.8
Neighbourhood Centres
Beaumont Hills
Beaumont Hills is a relatively new residential suburb located north-west of Kellyville, bound by Windsor Road,
Samantha Riley Drive, the proposed Rouse Hill Major Centre, Smalls Creek and Withers Road.
Beaumont Hills Shopping Centre opened in September 2009. The Centre is anchored by a Supa IGA
supermarket (1,800sqm) and includes 13 specialties, including a chemist, medical centre, real estate, dentist,
newsagent and Chinese restaurant. It is understood that there are still some vacancies within the Centre.
Bella Vista
Bella Vista adjoins Norwest Business Park, and includes a small shopping centre on Bella Vista Drive which
provides a convenience retail role for the surrounding residential community. The centre adjoins local
community facilities and is anchored by a small supermarket (around 300sqm), and also includes a medical
centre (500sqm), 2 restaurants, beautician, gift/homeware shop, and discount homewares outlet.
Other Shopping Centres
Other centres in the North-West in close proximity to Box Hill include:
§
Woodcroft Plaza – a neighbourhood shopping centre anchored by Coles (2,646sqm) with 23 specialty
shops (2,015sqm). Located 17km south of Box Hill.
§
Kings Langley Shopping Centre – a neighbourhood shopping centre anchored by Coles (3,092sqm)
with 26 specialty shops (2,158sqm). Located 14km south of Box Hill.
§
Westfield North Rocks – a Subregion al shopping centre, anchored by K-Mart (7,305sqm), Coles
(2,272sqm), Franklins (1,558sqm) and Aldi (1,308sqm) plus 90 specialties (10,198sqm). Located
27km south-east of Box Hill.
5.9
Bulky Goods
Bulky good and homemaker centres in the vicinity of Box Hill include:
§
Totally Home Bella Vista - located on Celebration Drive (off Old Windsor Road) around 12km southeast of Box Hill. The centre is anchored by Clive Peeters, Freedom Furniture, Nick Scali Furniture,
Bay Leather Republic and Harvey Norman. There are also 20 bulky goods specialty stores. In total
the centre provides 21,099sqm of floorspace.
§
Supa Centre Castle Hill (formerly Hills Homemaker Centre) - located 14km south-east of Box Hill at
the northern end of Victoria Avenue. Anchor tenants include Harvey Norman, Domayne, The Good
Guys, Clive Anthony’s, Toys R Us and Officeworks. There are also a number of bulky goods specialty
shops including BBQ Galore, Bing Lee and various national furniture and bedding retailers. In total,
there are 75 stores providing 52,155sqm of floorspace.
§
The Castle Hill Homemaker Centre - located on the corner of Victoria Avenue and Gladstone Road.
The Centre is anchored by Rays Outdoors and Bing Lee. There are also 14 bulky goods specialties
Ref: C10059
Page 48
Hill PDA
including Carpet Court and Strathfield Car Radio. In total, the centre provides 10,411sqm of
floorspace.
§
Home Central McGraths Hill – located on Windsor Road in the Mulgrave industrial area, around 7km
north-west of Box Hill. Includes a Bunnings Warehouse (9,396sqm) and Harvey Norman (2,994sqm).
In total it provides 17,251sqm of floorspace.
§
Blacktown Mega Centre - located around 18km south of Box Hill on the corner of Blacktown and
Bungarribee Roads. The Centre is owned and managed by Mirvac and is anchored by Bunnings,
Harvey Norman and Bing Lee. There are also 17 bulky goods specialties. In total the Centre provides
26,529sqm of floorspace.
5.10 Planned Centres and Proposed Developments
The North West Structure Plan provides a guide to the location of future town centres and neighbourhood
centres. The specific location of each centre will be resolved through detailed precinct planning. The table
below summarises the primary town centres in each of the release precincts.
Table 6 - North West Growth Centre Planned Centres to 2031
Release
Precincts
Box Hill
North Kellyville
Alex Avenue
Riverstone
Marsden Park
Total
Estimated Retail
Floorspace Provision
Centres Typology
Retail Mix
Town/Village Centre
Town/Village Centre
Town/Village Centre
Town/Village Centre
Town/Village Centre
1-2 supermarkets, 1 department store
2 supermarkets
2 supermarket, 1-2 department store
2 supermarkets, 1 department store
2 supermarkets, 1 department store
20,000-25,000sqm
18,000sqm
25,000sqm
25,000-30,000sqm
30,000-35,000sqm
118,000 - 133,000sqm
No.
Neighbourhood Centres
7-8
3-4
6-8
5
10 -11
In addition to the above planned Centres, there are also a number of specific retail developments in the
pipeline within the vicinity of Box Hill. The following table summarises these developments, including their
approximate distance to the future Box Hill Town Centre.
Table 7 - Proposed Retail Developments
Bunnings
Hardware Store
Rouse Hill
3km
Total
Additional
Floorspace
(GFA)
11,810sqm
Riverstone
Marketown
Expansion
4.5km
11,872sqm
ALDI
McGraths Hill
8km
1,532sqm
ALDI Kellyville
Woolworths
9km
10km
1,400sqm
6,000sqm
Development
Ref: C10059
Distance to
Box Hill
(approx.)
Comments
Approval has been given for the construction of a new Bunnings
Warehouse on Annangrove Road in Rouse Hill. The 11,810sqm
proposal includes basement parking for 416 cars. Construction is
likely to commence in late 2010, with completion expected by
late 2011.
A development application has been submitted for the
redevelopment of the existing Marketown Shopping Centre in
Riverstone. Works will include the extension of the retail area by
11,872sqm. If approved, construction is unlikely to commence
any time before late 2011.
Construction has commenced on a new single storey free
standing Aldi store of 1,532sqm plus 63 parking spaces. It is
likely to be completed in mid 2010.
Approved ALDI store at Wrights Road, Kellyville
A development application has been submitted for a new
Page 49
Hill PDA
Shopping Centre
Baulkham Hills
Circa Business
Centre Retail
Expansion
15km
2,500sqm
Marsden Park
Bulky Goods
10km
65,000sqm
Plumpton
Shopping Centre
15km
13,458sqm
Castle Towers
(Stage 3)
15km
Over
10,000sqm
Bunnings Seven
Hills
15km
12,943sqm
Dan Murphy's
Richmond
17.5km
1,125sqm
Franklins North
Richmond
21km
1,900sqm
Balmoral Road
Release Area
8km
NA
shopping centre at 73-75 Windsor Road in Baulkham Hills. The
centre will be anchored by a 4,200sqm Woolworths supermarket
plus 1,800sqm of specialty shops and parking for 205 cars. If
approved, it is likely that the new shopping centre will commence
construction in mid 2011, with completion expected in mid 2012.
The owner of Circa Business Centre Mulpha FKP submitted a
proposal to Council for an additional 2,500sqm of retail
floorspace including a 1,500sqm supermarket. A planning
proposal was submitted to the Department of Planning in July
2010.
Early planning is underway for the future development of a
45,000sqm bulky goods site, which has the potential for around
20,000sqm of retail facilities (subject to rezoning).
An amended development application has been submitted for a
new shopping centre of 13,458sqm (GLA). The centre will
include 2 supermarkets (5,926sqm), 3 mini majors (3,146sqm),
specialties (4,212sqm) and a food court. There will be 671 car
parking spaces. If approved, the construction will commence in
late 2010, with completion expected in late 2012.
The redevelopment includes a new discount department store,
full-line supermarket, restaurants, specialty stores, and
entertainment and leisure facilities. It is unlikely that construction
will commence any time before mid 2011.
Construction has commenced on a new Bunnings Warehouse in
Seven Hills. The complex provides 12,943sqm of floorspace, of
which 7,490sqm is dedicated to the main warehouse and a
further 3,120sqm is dedicated to a timber sales area.
Construction has commenced on a new Dan Murphy's outlet of
1,125sqm plus 40 parking spaces. It is likely to be completed in
mid 2010.
Construction has commenced on a single storey Franklins
supermarket of 1,900sqm plus rooftop parking for 58 vehicles. It
is likely to be completed in late 2010.
Rezoning application submitted to swap some Business 3(a)
zone for Residential 2(a2) at 73-75 Windsor Road.
Source: Reed Construction Data 2010, Hill PDA Research 2010
Ref: C10059
Page 50
Hill PDA
6. TRADE AREA ANALYSIS
6.1
Trade Area Definition
In order to measure need and undersupply of retail and commercial floorspace, a trade or catchment area
needs to be defined. The trade area served by any retail centre is determined by a number of factors including:
§
The strength and attraction of the centre in question, determined by factors such as the composition,
layout, ambience/atmosphere and car parking in the centre;
§
Competitive retail centres, particularly their proximity to the subject centre and respective sizes, retail
offer and attraction;
§
The location and accessibility of the centre, including the available road and public transport network
and travel times; and
§
The presence or absence of physical barriers, such as rivers, railways, national parks and freeways.
Having regard to the above and based on the analysis of existing and proposed retail centres within the North
West Growth Centre, Hill PDA makes the following comments regarding planned Box Hill Town Centre:
10
§
The Town Centre is presently intended to be located just north of the Killarney Chain of Ponds Creek
and on the north-south arterial of Terry Road.
§
The Box Hill Alternative Town Centre Location report completed by MacroPlan in March 2010
suggests that a more suitable location of the proposed Town Centre is between Windsor Road and
the proposed North-West Rail Link, to the south-west of the original planned location.
§
Geographically, the closest supermarket based centre to the subject site is Riverstone Marketown
(4.5km or 10 minutes by car), which includes a Franklins supermarket (1,340sqm). A development
application has been submitted for its redevelopment and extension (from 3,000sqm to almost
15,000sqm).
§
Rouse Hill Town Centre is located 5.5km (or 6 minutes by car) and Castle Hill Major Centre is located
15km (or 25 minutes by car) from the planned Box Hill Town Centre. Both provide full line national
supermarkets, discount departments stores, commercial floorspace and a range of specialty and
bulky good retailers.
§
Under the North West Structure Plan, future Town and Village Centres are planned for Riverstone
(5.5km), Schofields/Alex Avenue (8km) and Marsden Park (9km). The Town Centre located at
Schofields/Alex Avenue will be larger and will be likely to include 2 department stores.
§
The Structure Plan also identifies a number of future Neighbourhood Centres including 7 to 8 Centres
in Box Hill.
§
Box Hill industrial area is likely to have a workforce of around 7,000 to 10,000 workers10 (depending
on the final land uses).
Hill PDA Estimate 2010
Ref: C10059
Page 51
Hill PDA
Having regard to each of the factors detailed above, and based on our experience with similar studies in
growth areas, Hill PDA has identified a Primary and Secondary Trade Area for the Box Hill Town Centre.
The Primary Trade Area includes the entire Box Hill and Box Hill Industrial Precincts as indicated in the North
West Structure Plan, as well as a portion of Vineyard Precinct (north-east of Windsor Road). The Secondary
Trade Area includes the existing suburb of Oakville in the north as well as a portion of the Riverstone East
Precinct (north of Guntawong Road).
The trade areas are illustrated on the following map.
Figure 6 - Box Hill Retail Trade Areas
Source: MapInfo, Hill PDA 2010
6.2
Demographics of the Trade Area
Demand for retail floorspace is dependant not only upon the number of households in the trade area but also
the socio-demographic characteristics of those households. Box Hill is located near the new residential
suburbs of Kellyville, Kellyville Ridge, Beaumont Hills, Rouse Hill and Stanhope Gardens. Given its location,
the key residential demographics of these comparable suburbs have been examined and benchmarked
against the Sydney Statistical Division (SD).
Ref: C10059
Page 52
Hill PDA
Table 8 - Population Characteristics (2006)
Population and Dwellings
Total Population
Total Dwellings
Occupied Private Dwellings
Occupied Private Dwellings
Average Household Size
Age Distribution
0-14
15-29
30-44
45-59
60-74
75+
Median Age
Beaumont
Hills
Kellyville
Kellyville
Ridge
Rouse Hill
Stanhope
Gardens
Sydney SD
5,817
1,758
1,708
97.2%
3.4
18,362
5,736
5,389
94.0%
3.4
3,951
1,217
1,176
96.6%
3.4
6,474
2,029
1,959
96.6%
3.3
4,258
1,584
1,540
97.2%
2.8
4,119,190
1,643,615
1,521,465
92.6%
2.7
29.2%
17.1%
29.6%
16.8%
6.1%
1.1%
32
27.4%
18.8%
27.1%
18.7%
6.3%
1.7%
32
29.8%
20.6%
33.1%
11.6%
3.9%
1.0%
29
32.7%
15.3%
32.3%
13.3%
5.2%
1.2%
31
24.0%
21.6%
28.7%
15.8%
7.4%
2.5%
31
19.5%
21.2%
23.2%
19.3%
10.6%
6.1%
35
* Beaumont Hills, Kellyville, Kellyville Ridge, Rouse Hill, Stanhope Gardens combined.
Source: 2006 ABS Census
From the above population and age comparisons, the following can be determined:
§
On Census night, 96% of dwellings were occupied compared to the Sydney SD (93%);
§
The average household size of the surrounding new residential areas was 3.3 persons per household.
This is noticeably larger than the statistical benchmark; and
§
The median age of residents within the surrounding new residential areas was 31 years, significantly
younger than Sydney SD (35 years). 93% of the resident population is under the age of 45 years.
Table 9 - Dwelling & Household Characteristics (2006)
Home Ownership
Owned or Being Purchased
Rented
Other/Not Stated
Household Structure
Family Households
Lone Person Households
Group Households
Family Type
Couple with children
Couple no children
One parent family
Other family
Dwelling Type
Separate house
Townhouse
Flat-Unit-Apartment
Other dwelling
Not stated
Beaumont
Hills
Kellyville
Kellyville
Ridge
Rouse Hill
Stanhope
Gardens
Sydney SD
85.6%
13.2%
1.2%
85.1%
13.5%
1.4%
84.0%
15.0%
1.0%
82.4%
15.5%
2.1%
77.9%
19.7%
2.5%
65.0%
31.3%
3.7%
93.1%
5.4%
1.5%
92.1%
6.9%
1.0%
93.3%
4.6%
2.1%
89.8%
8.8%
1.3%
78.7%
18.9%
2.5%
72.7%
23.1%
4.2%
67.0%
25.3%
6.9%
0.8%
68.4%
22.5%
8.2%
0.8%
66.5%
25.4%
7.6%
0.4%
67.7%
23.3%
8.7%
0.3%
55.1%
32.6%
11.0%
1.3%
49.3%
33.2%
15.6%
1.9%
97.6%
2.1%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
96.3%
3.5%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
98.0%
0.4%
1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
95.4%
0.9%
0.0%
3.7%
0.0%
79.8%
0.6%
0.2%
18.4%
0.9%
63.6%
11.8%
23.9%
0.6%
0.1%
* Beaumont Hills, Kellyville, Kellyville Ridge, Rouse Hill, Stanhope Gardens.
Ref: C10059
Page 53
Hill PDA
From an analysis of dwelling and household characteristics, the following can be determined:
§
Home ownership levels are higher (and rental levels are lower) in the surrounding new residential
areas when compared to Sydney SD;
§
The majority of households in were family households, with the majority of these being couple with
children i.e. young families; and
§
In the surrounding new residential areas, around 94% of the households were separate houses,
compared to 64% in the Sydney SD.
Table 10 - Income Characteristics (2006)
Weekly Household
Income
$0-$299
$300-$599
$600-$999
$1,000-$1,499
$1,500-$1,999
$2,000+
Partial income stated
Median Income
Beaumont
Hills
Kellyville
Kellyville
Ridge
Rouse Hill
Stanhope
Gardens
Sydney SD
3.0%
7.4%
15.4%
32.8%
30.7%
9.4%
1.2%
$1,952
3.5%
9.2%
17.3%
30.1%
28.2%
10.4%
1.4%
$1,870
3.1%
6.0%
18.1%
36.1%
27.2%
8.3%
1.1%
$1,930
4.3%
9.2%
18.4%
33.0%
25.9%
7.3%
1.9%
$1,808
10.6%
13.4%
18.6%
30.4%
18.6%
6.0%
2.4%
$1,484
12.8%
17.9%
20.8%
21.2%
16.0%
8.6%
2.7%
$1,154
* Beaumont Hills, Kellyville, Kellyville Ridge, Rouse Hill, Stanhope Gardens.
Demand for retail space is largely generated by household expenditure. Household expenditure is dependent
upon the number of households and household income levels (i.e. higher incomes spend more on goods and
services). The median weekly household income for the new residential areas surrounding Box Hill was
$1,827/week, which is significantly higher than Sydney SD ($1,154/week).
6.3
Population Growth in the Trade Area
Population growth estimates were assumed from a number of sources, including the Hills Shire Council’s
Residential Direction (2008) and the NSW Transport Data Centre (TDC) Population Forecasts (for smaller
areas).
The TDC provides data on current and future demographic, employment and travel patterns. This data is used
as inputs to transport and land use planning and policy making in NSW. The TDC provides Travel Zone
population forecasts for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area. The TDC October 2009 Release population
forecast (published in April 2010) uses datasets that are largely sourced from the ABS, Department of
Planning and various Local Government sources.
The Department of Planning dataset used by the TDC incorporates the Growth Centres Commission (GCC) lot
supply forecasts as at November 2008. The TDC allocates population growth to the travel zones located in the
Growth Centres every 5 years. The forecast population growth for the Box Hill Trade Areas is forecast in the
following table.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
Table 11 - Population Growth of the Trade Area 2009-2031
Primary Trade Area
Box Hill*
Part Vineyard (East of Windsor
Rd)**
Total Primary Trade Area
Oakville^
Part Riverstone East^^
Total Secondary Trade Area
Total Trade Areas
2009
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Growth 2009
to 2031
% Per
Annum
Growth
969
1,131
1,325
3,867
13,690
28,928
27,959
16.69%
278
278
687
1,943
3,964
4,160
3,882
13.09%
1,247
1,409
2,012
5,810
17,654
33,088
31,841
16.07%
1,821
273
2,095
3,342
1,821
365
2,186
3,595
1,862
1,264
3,126
5,138
1,875
3,291
5,166
10,976
1,899
5,625
7,523
25,177
1,924
7,182
9,106
42,194
103
6,909
7,011
38,852
0.25%
16.02%
6.91%
12.22%
*Source: Marketinfo 2009, the Hills Shire Council 2010
**Source: NSW Transport Data Centre, October 2009, Travel Zone no. 2057
^Source: NSW Transport Data Centre, October 2009, Travel Zone no. 2056
^^Source: NSW Transport Data Centre, October 2009, Travel Zone no. 2263 & 2264
The Box Hill Precinct is targeting 28,000 residents by 2031. The above table indicates the Primary Trade Area,
inclusive of Box Hill and part of Vineyard, is expected to accommodate over 33,000 people by 2031. This is
equivalent to an increase of over 31,000 persons from 2009 to 2031, or 16% compound annual growth.
Growth is more prevalent from year 2021 onwards when it is expected the first new residents of Box Hill will
move into the area. By comparison, the Secondary Trade Area is forecast to increase by 7,011 persons over
the same period, equating to a compound annual growth rate of almost 7% (still very strong annual growth).
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
7. DEMAND FOR RETAIL FLOORSPACE
This Chapter documents the methodology and findings from the retail demand forecasting completed for the
Box Hill Precinct by Hill PDA.
7.1
Methodology for Determining Demand
The methodology used for forecasting demand for retail floorspace is a bespoke retail demand model
developed by Hill PDA. Demand for retail floorspace is generated by households and workers within a defined
trade area and having regard to both escape expenditure and expenditure that potentially could be captured
from outside the trade area. This method then converts expenditure from residents and workers in the trade
area into demand for retail floorspace (square metres) by dividing by target retail turnovers by store type.
7.2
Household Expenditure
Household expenditure was sourced from:
§
ABS Household Expenditure Survey 2003-04 which provides household expenditure by broad
commodity type by household income quintile; and
§
The Marketinfo 2009 database which is generated by combining and updating data from the
Population Census and the ABS Household Expenditure Survey (HES) using “microsimulation
modelling techniques”.
Marketinfo combines the data from the Census, HES and other sources to derive total HES by commodity
type. This data, which was validated using taxation and national accounts figures, quantifies around 14%
more expenditure than the ABS HES Survey.
Existing residents in the newer suburbs surrounding Box Hill are relatively wealthy; with an average retail
spend per capita of around $14,128 in 200911. For the purpose of retail demand modelling, Hill PDA has
assumed the potential expenditure levels of new residents in Box Hill are comparable to that of the existing
residents in these areas.
Whilst some expenditure is captured by non-retailers (such as internet shopping) the loss of expenditure to
non-retailers is outweighed by additional sources of income that retailers capture including wholesale trading
and the hire of equipment. This is why retail turnover is slightly higher than household expenditure.
Retail spend per capita is also expected to increase at an average rate of around 1.30% per annum in
accordance with historic growth since 1986. Based on these assumptions, expenditure generated by
households in the trade area (Primary and Secondary Trade Areas combined) is forecast as follows:
Average retail spend per capita of the new residential areas of Kellyville, Kellyville Ridge, Stanhope Gardens, Beaumont Hills and Rouse Hill
combined (Marketinfo 2009)
11
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
Table 12 - Primary & Secondary Trade Area Expenditure Available to Box Hill to 2031 (2009$m)
Retail Store Type
Estimated Population
Supermarkets & Grocery Stores
Specialty Food Stores
Fast-Food Stores
Restaurants, Hotels and Clubs*
Department Stores
Clothing Stores
Bulky Goods Stores
Other Personal & Household Goods
Selected Personal Services**
Total Retailing
2009
3,341
13.2
4.3
3.8
4.0
4.0
2.5
7.1
6.8
1.4
47.2
2011
3,595
14.5
4.8
4.2
4.4
4.5
2.8
7.9
7.5
1.6
52.1
2016
5,138
22.2
7.3
6.4
6.7
6.8
4.3
12.0
11.5
2.4
79.5
2021
10,976
50.5
16.6
14.6
15.3
15.5
9.7
27.4
26.1
5.5
181.1
2026
25,177
123.6
40.7
35.6
37.3
37.9
23.7
67.0
63.9
13.3
443.1
2031
42,194
221.0
72.7
63.7
66.7
67.7
42.4
119.8
114.3
23.8
792.0
* Turnover relating only to consumption of food and liquor (excludes all other types of revenue such as accommodation, gaming and gambling)
** Selected Personal Services includes hair and beauty, laundry, clothing hire and alterations, shoe repair, optical dispensing, photo processing and
hire of videos
The results indicate that combined the Primary and Secondary Trade Area’s will generate $52.1m of
expenditure in 2011. Of this around $14.5m will be in supermarket and grocery stores, $4.8m in specialty food
stores, and so on. Total expenditure is forecast to increase to $181.1m in 2021 and $443.1m in 2026. By 2031,
the Primary and Secondary Trade Area’s will generate $792m in retail household expenditure.
7.3
Capture of Expenditure
In order to calculate the extent of expenditure available to proposed retail centres located within the Box Hill
Precinct, it must be acknowledged that some trade will be lost to higher order centres outside the Precinct,
especially to Rouse Hill and Castle Hill. However, most of this expenditure will be in higher-order comparative
goods shopping such as fashion, bulky goods, and the like.
Different capture rates were applied to the Primary and Secondary Trade Areas as shown in the following
table.
Table 13 - Primary and Secondary Trade Area Capture Rates
Retail Store Type
Fast-Food Stores
Department Stores
Clothing Stores
Bulky Goods Stores
Total Retailing
Primary Trade Area
75%
70%
60%
50%
50%
15%
15%
35%
60%
51%
15%
15%
15%
12%
25%
5%
5%
9%
15%
13%
hire of videos
The above table indicates, for example, that retail provision in Box Hill will have the potential to capture 75% of
supermarket expenditure generated by the Primary Trade Area. Therefore, 25% of household expenditure
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
available in the Primary Trade Area will go to supermarkets and grocery stores in other retail centres such as
Woolworths at Rouse Hill Town Centre.
The assumptions also indicate retail provision in Box Hill will only capture a marginal amount of retail
expenditure generated by the Secondary Trade Area. That is, 15% of supermarket and grocery store
expenditure, 15% of specialty food retail expenditure, 25% of department store expenditure and so on.
The results allow for net escape expenditure – around 49% in the Primary Trade Area, and 87% in the
Secondary Trade Area. This relates to three areas of expenditure:
§
“Tourism out” expenditure (when trade area residents are on holidays) ;
§
Expenditure captured by existing centres outside the Growth Centre such as Rouse Hill and Castle
Hill; and
§
Expenditure being captured close to the place of work.
Potential expenditure captured by proposed retail centres in Box Hill was calculated by applying the above
capture rates to household expenditure generated from the Primary and Secondary Trade Areas. Based on
these capture rates, retail sales are forecast as follows:
Table 14 - Capture of Expenditure by Box Hill to 2031 (2009$m)
Retail Store Type
Fast-Food Stores
Department Stores
Clothing Stores
Bulky Goods Stores
Total Retailing
2009
3,341
4.9
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.4
0.2
0.6
1.3
0.5
12.7
2011
3,595
5.6
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.5
0.2
0.7
1.4
0.5
14.4
2016
5,138
8.5
2.7
2.1
1.8
2.4
0.4
1.1
2.2
0.8
21.9
2021
10,976
23.6
7.3
5.7
4.9
5.9
1.0
2.8
5.9
2.1
59.3
2026
25,177
70.5
21.8
16.6
14.4
16.1
2.8
8.0
17.4
6.2
173.9
2031
42,194
137.1
42.3
32.0
27.9
30.2
5.4
15.4
33.6
12.0
335.9
hire of videos
The results indicate that in 2011 Box Hill will capture a total of around $14.35m of retail sales, of which $5.60m
is in supermarket and grocery stores, $1.75m in specialty food stores, and so on. However, by 2026 when new
residents are in Box Hill, retail provision in Box Hill will capture up to $173.9m of turnover, this increases again
to $335.9m in 2031.
Ref: C10059
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7.4
Demand for Retail Floorspace in Box Hill
Forecast demand for retail floorspace is calculated by dividing household expenditure by benchmark turnover
levels. The target turnover levels adopted are forecast in the following table.
Table 15 - Box Hill Target Turnover* 2009-2031 ($/sqm)
Retail Store Type
Fast-Food Stores
Department Stores
Clothing Stores
Bulky Goods Stores
2009
10,500
8,000
8,000
4,500
4,000
5,500
3,750
5,500
3,500
2011
10,637
8,104
8,104
4,559
4,052
5,572
3,799
5,572
3,546
2016
10,987
8,371
8,371
4,709
4,186
5,755
3,924
5,755
3,662
2021
11,349
8,647
8,647
4,864
4,323
5,945
4,053
5,945
3,783
2026
11,723
8,931
8,931
5,024
4,466
6,140
4,187
6,140
3,908
2031
12,109
9,226
9,226
5,189
4,613
6,343
4,324
6,343
4,036
hire of videos
The above target turnover rates incorporate a 0.65% per annum escalation to 2031. This is because it is likely
that the increase in real spend per capita (and overall population growth) will be greater than the rate of new
retail floorspace being completed i.e. supply versus demand.
Demand for retail floorspace is derived from applying industry benchmark turnover rates to expenditure
captured in Box Hill. The results are provided in the following table.
Table 16 - Forecast Retail Floorspace Demand in Box Hill to 2031 (sqm)
Retail Store Type
Fast-Food Stores
Department Stores
Clothing Stores
Bulky Goods Stores
Total Retailing
2009
1,247
469
192
151
231
346
40
166
232
129
1,957
2011
1,409
526
216
169
259
382
45
185
259
144
2,185
2016
2,012
777
318
249
382
564
66
273
382
213
3,225
2021
5,810
2,081
848
654
1,007
1,368
168
695
1,001
559
8,381
2026
17,654
6,017
2,439
1,857
2,870
3,605
464
1,922
2,835
1,589
23,599
2031
33,088
11,323
4,581
3,471
5,373
6,544
859
3,556
5,296
2,970
43,974
* Turnover relating only to consumption of food and liquor (excludes all other types of revenue such as accommodation, gaming and gambling).
Around half of this space would be expected to be in the form of restaurants occupying shopfront space.
hire of videos
Further to the above figures is shopfront space occupied by non-retail commercial users. Such uses include
real estate agents, medical services, travel agents, banks, etc. As a rule of thumb around 15% of specialty
stores should be provided to accommodate these uses and a further 3% to 4% of specialty stores are assumed
to be vacant at any one time.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
A small component of vacant shops are considered healthy to accommodate turnover of tenancies. The above
table shows demand for around 19,000sqm of specialty retail shops in 2031 (equivalent to the total of
44,000sqm of floorspace demand less department stores, bulky goods, supermarkets and a component of
meals on premises that are captured by non-shopfront space). A further 4,000sqm of shopfront space should
then be provided to accommodate non-retail uses and vacancies.
Of course certain store types require a minimum size to be viable. Full line supermarkets are generally
3,000sqm to 4,500sqm and discount department stores are at least 4,000sqm and up to 8,000sqm. The
results shows that in 2011 demand for retail space generated by the trade area is insufficient to warrant a new
shopping centre of any reasonable size.
However by 2021 demand will be strong enough to support a supermarket and specialty stores with a total
floor area of around 5,000 to 6,000sqm. By 2026 demand will support a second supermarket and a discount
department store and additional specialties.
7.5
Other Sources of Expenditure
The 14,000 workers in the Box Hill Industrial and business park areas will generate further expenditure in the
locality in the order of around $35m per annum (at around $2,500 per worker)12.This will result in demand for a
further 6,000sqm of retail floorspace in the locality. However much of this demand is expected to be taken up
in the Rouse Hill Town Centre and in restaurants and retail stores in the business park zone.
Tourism is another potential source of expenditure but in the case of Box Hill, this is expected to be negligible.
12
Hill PDA estimate 2010
Ref: C10059
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8. IMPLICATIONS FOR RETAIL IN BOX HILL
8.1
Objectives and Guiding Principles
In order to develop and evaluate a range of options for the planning and management of retailing in Box Hill, it
is necessary to have a clear set of objectives. Objectives can include the following:
§
Ensure residents have the widest possible range of shopping opportunities and commercial services;
§
Provide quantity, quality and convenience for consumers;
§
Provide for further growth in retail space to meet growth in demand generated by population growth;
§
Protect the integrity and viability of existing centres to the extent that they continue to perform a useful
community function;
§
Protect current employment levels in retailing and hospitality industries for the residents of the Precinct
and expand opportunities for further employment;
§
Provide opportunities for local employment and start-up businesses for local residents; and
§
Balance social, economic and environmental considerations and focus on local ESD principles including
reduction in transport demand.
Consistent with the above objectives are general development principles that will guide the planning,
development and management of retail and commercial centres. Such principles are defined as follows:
§
Maximise access to existing retail services, having regard to current plans for urban growth;
§
Ensure planning instruments are flexible enough to accommodate innovation and new forms of
retailing and experiences, but not at the expense of the objectives and principles of the North-West
Subregional Strategy and the Hills Shire Centre’s Direction (2008);
§
Protect the integrity and viability of centres from threats generated by new centres, expansion of
existing centres, changes in the retail hierarchy, “out-of-centre” and other forms of retailing;
§
Contain retailing (as opposed to dispersing or spreading it) to minimise travel times, improve
convenience and improve competition within retail centres;
§
Encourage diversity of uses to maintain economic activity and extend hours of use;
§
Maximise public transport and convenience. Plan for transport infrastructure and management that
prioritises pedestrian movement and public transport access;
§
Define bulky goods retailing to ensure the protection of existing centres and prohibit retailing in the
industrial areas (other than ancillary retail and services); and
§
The primary function for a centre’s core should be for retail and commercial uses particularly at street
level. This does not preclude residential uses or parking areas however their location and design
should not be detrimental to this primary objective.
Ref: C10059
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8.2
Matching Supply with Demand
An important objective of any retail strategy is to achieve the right level of shopfront retail and commercial
floorspace. An undersupply of floorspace creates the following issues:
§
It undermines the objective of residents having the widest possible range of shopping opportunities and
commercial services;
§
It undermines the objective of providing quantity, quality and convenience for consumers;
§
It results in considerable expenditure escaping the area to other areas;
§
It results in longer travel times for shopping and increased car use; and
§
It results in increased congestion, parking difficulties and loss of convenience.
An oversupply of shopfront retail and commercial floorspace results in:
§
High vacancies, low rents and neglect of retail centres;
§
Inefficient use of land and other resources; and
§
An uninviting appearance and ambience with lack of users.
In many cases an oversupply of shopfront space occurs as a result of intense competition in the retail industry
with competitors trying to be first. In areas of stagnant population growth, oversupply is an issue that is difficult to
address. Fortunately in high growth areas, such as the North West Growth Centre, oversupply only becomes a
short term problem.
8.3
Staging of Shopfront Space
Having regard to the objective discussed in Section 8.1 above, and assuming population growth rates mirror
the forecasts adopted within this report, Hill PDA has developed a staging plan for new retail centres in Box
Hill.
The key objective has been to open centres concurrently with demand, if not slightly ahead of demand. Retailers,
particularly the national supermarkets, are often satisfied to trade at below industry levels for the first few years, if
they are confident that trading levels will increase over time due to population growth.
Please note that the timing of centres is indicative and should be flexible or robust. The important consideration
is that its population thresholds that are the key drivers to the size and staging of centres.
Short to Mid Term (Years 2016 to 2021)
During this period the first stage of the new Box Hill Town Centre should develop.
Stage 1 should open with a full-line supermarket (3,000 to 4,000sqm) and around 20-30 specialty stores
(2,500sqm to 3,000sqm). Total retail floorspace associated to Stage 1 of the Town Centre is equivalent to
5,000sqm to 7,000sqm (GLA).
Ref: C10059
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The supermarket is expected to trade below average for the first year or two but should trade at industry
benchmark levels by 2023 based on the population and household expenditure forecasts within this report.
Mid to Long Term (Years 2026 to 2028)
By around 2026 to 2028 the Town Centre should undergo a major expansion with the inclusion of:
§
A discount department store (6,000sqm to 8,000sqm);
§
A second large supermarket (3,000sqm to 3,500sqm) or a smaller discount food store such as an ALDI
(around 1,500sqm);
§
4 to 5 mini-majors (4,000sqm to 5,000sqm); and
§
A further 6,000sqm to 8,000sqm of specialty stores.
Total retail floorspace in Stage 2 is equivalent to an additional 18,000sqm to 24,000sqm (GLA) of shopfront
space.
Ultimately the Town Centre should reach a size of around 26,000sqm to 30,000sqm (GLA).
around 4,000sqm to 7,000sqm would be supermarket space.
In addition to the Town Centre, two or three Village Centres could largely satisfy remaining demand. The
Village Centres should each be between 3,000sqm and 5,000sqm and anchored by a supermarket each
between 1,500sqm to 3,000sqm.
Review of Staging Plan
The suggested staging plan should be reviewed periodically due to unforseen changes. These changes can
occur for any number of reasons including:
§
Lot and/or dwelling production being higher or lower than previous forecasts;
§
Location of land release being different from previous forecasts;
§
Unforseen impediments or other factors requiring modifications to the Structure Plan; and
§
Changes in the retailing industry and/or new forms of retailing being introduced.
The timing of the village centres could be flexible. A village centre
8.4
The Size of the Town Centre
The North West Structure Plan suggests a Town Centre for Box Hill with 20,000sqm to 25,000sqm of retail space
(GFA). The Town Centre is characterised as including 1 to 2 supermarkets and 1 department store. However the
methodology used to derive that size was not known. It’s likely that the size was based on Box Hill as the trade
area with no consideration being made for expenditure captured from Vineyard and surrounding localities.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA’s expenditure modelling indicates that by 2031 the Box Hill trade areas will demand around 45,000sqm
to 50,000sqm (GLA) of shop front space in Box Hill (which also allows for some non-retail users such as travel
agents, medical services, financial services, travel agents and the like).
By 2031 the ideal distribution of this floorspace demand is a Town Centre of around 30,000sqm (GLA) with two or
three supporting Village Centres of around 3,000sqm to 5,000sqm (GLA) each.
There will also be other land uses over and above retail and commercial that contributes to the sustainability and
overall function of a town centre. These include the likes of community, education, entertainment, open space
civic and transport functions. Residential within a town centre can also be considered.
This results in a larger town centre than originally envisaged by the North West Structure Plan, which only took
account of retail floorspace. The impact of such a centre on the retail hierarchy of the North West Subregion
needs to be considered.
The retail hierarchy in the North West Subregional Strategy (2006-2031) nominates various existing town centres
ranging in size from 14,000sqm to 35,000sqm (GLA) of retail floorspace. This includes the likes of Baulkham
Hills, Stanhope Gardens, and Richmond. These existing town centres are characterised by:
§
1 to 2 supermarkets;
§
§
1 to 2 mini majors and associated specialty stores;
§
Shopfront commercial floorspace and few local entertainment land uses (e.g. local tavern and café’s);
and
§
Minor civic land uses (e.g. local library branch).
The next level in the hierarchy are major centres, however these are significantly larger than town centres.
Existing major centres in the North West Subregion, range from 74,000sqm (GLA) of retail and commercial
floorspace in the case of Rouse Hill, to 171,000sqm (GLA) in the case of Castle Hill. It’s also recognised that
Rouse Hill still has remaining retail and commercial stages yet to be developed. These major centres are
characterised by:
§
1 to 2 department stores;
§
§
3 to 4 large supermarkets;
§
High proportion of commercial floorspace including possible stand alone commercial buildings;
§
Entertainment land uses (e.g. cinema complex, bowling ally, tavern’s, restaurant’s)
§
Civic land uses (e.g. library, council branch, government offices);
§
Bulky goods clusters or employment lands on the fringe;
§
Transport interchanges; and
§
Higher residential densities (e.g. multi-unit development) within or surrounding the centre.
Box Hill has been prescribed as a Town Centre in the North West Structure Plan and the North West Subregional
Strategy retail hierarchy. Whilst existing town centres in the Subregion are 14,000sqm to 35,000sqm of retail
Ref: C10059
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floorspace (GFA), modelling within this report indicates that the Box Hill Town Centre could reach up to
30,000sqm (GLA) of retail floorspace by 2031.
However, given the attributes and functions prescribed to a town centre versus a major centre, and the relatively
larger size of major centres, the primary retail centre within the Box Hill Precinct clearly remains that of a town
centre. Furthermore, planning for a mix of centres (town and village centres) in Box Hill rather than one large
centre, will go some way to distributing demand and associated impacts.
8.5
Non Retail Role of Box Hill Town Centre
There are different types of commercial space such as:
§
Non-retail in shopfront space like a travel agent, bank, doctors and so on, these make up around 5% to
7% of retail shopfront space in a retail centre; and
§
Non-shopfront commercial spaces being stand alone commercial buildings and shop top commercial
above retail.
Demand modelling within Section 7.4 of this report indicated that further to demand for retail is demand for
shopfront space occupied by non-retail commercial users. Such uses include real estate agents, medical
services, travel agents, banks, etc. As a rule of thumb around 10% to 15% of specialty stores should be
provided to accommodate these uses and a further 3% to 4% of specialty stores are assumed to be vacant at
any one time.
Furthermore, its unlikely stand along commercial buildings will either be viable or be in demand in Box Hill
Town Centre. Whilst there may be demand for commercial buildings within an identified business park
environment (further considered in Section 13.2 of this report), its unlikely demand will be such within the Town
Centre itself. Furthermore, the role for such development ‘in centre’ is better suited to the role and function of a
Major Centre such as Castle Hill.
Notwithstanding this, Box Hill can provide local urban commercial support services (i.e. smaller suites for local
businesses like doctors, travel agents, banks etc). A medical centre (around 300sqm), community library branch
and childcare centre may also be appropriate.
Other non-retail land uses may include a tavern or bar; however entertainment uses like cinemas and a bowling
alley are more suited to Major Centres and are already located in the likes of Rouse Hill Major Centre.
8.6
Village and Neighbourhood Centres
around 4,000sqm to 7,000sqm would be supermarket space. In addition to the Town Centre, two or three
Village Centres could largely satisfy remaining demand. The Village Centres should each be between
3,000sqm and 5,000sqm and anchored by a supermarket each between 1,500sqm to 3,000sqm.
The structure plan had suggested a large number of small neighbourhood centres. The sustainability or viability
of such a large number is questioned. For neighbourhood centres to trade sustainably they need to be one of two
Ref: C10059
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types or a hybrid of the two. The two types of neighbourhood centres are the “walkable” centres and the “car
based” convenience centres.
For “walkable” Neighbourhood Centres to trade sustainably they generally need to be located in the middle of
fairly high density residential area. It is also preferable for them to be located at a public transport node such as a
train station or bus stop. Many inner city areas, such as Green Square and Pyrmont provide a good context for
successful walkable neighbourhood centres.
Car based convenience centres need to be located at the entry point of the trade area rather than in the middle of
the trade area. Ideally they would be located on a main road to capture passing traffic – particularly
afternoon/evening peak traffic, and particularly where shoppers find the experience more convenient than
shopping in the larger centres. These neighbourhood centres need to be convenient which means sufficient
parking spaces and rapid access times.
The viability of both car-based and walkable neighbourhood centres is also dependent on tenant mix. Preferably
there should be a reasonable anchor (such as a small supermarket or grocery store) and a mix of specialties.
The size and affluence of the trade area are other important variables.
If Box Hill ultimately has one town centre and 3 village centres this will meet the shopping needs of the residents.
There is no need to provide specifically zoned areas for neighbourhood centres. However it is suggested that
corner stores be allowed in the residential areas.
8.7
Bulky Goods
Bulky goods type retailing is recognised as an important precursor to town centre development and
consequentially should be planned for in the establishment of a centre. The location of certain bulky good
stores may be removed from the main street location because of their low level of intensity of use and their
requirement for large car park access, but their location should not be too far separated so as to discourage
clustering of development and shopper activity.
The guiding principals for bulky goods retail should include:
§
Bulky goods retailing should not be allowed in industrial zones;
§
Bulky goods development should primarily be located within existing commercial centres, which helps
ensure centre vitality, viability and a sustainable form of development that will not ‘crowd out’ industrial
users from industrial land; and
§
There may be special circumstances where the location of bulky goods may be considered outside town
centres such as an existing large bulky goods cluster with good highway/main road frontage. Such
development areas would be restricted within a newly defined enterprise area and any expansion of
floorspace must be supported by the performance of an Economic Impact Assessment that looks at the
impact on a regional basis with the centre hierarchy to be protected.
Requirements for successful bulky goods centres or clusters include:
§
Having a large and extensive trade area of 100,000 or more people;
§
being in a central position in the trade area or near the main entry point of a large trade area;
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§
Cheap and plentiful land to enable plentiful parking and loading and unloading facilities; and
§
Being located on a major road with high visibility and accessibility.
Desirable requirements include:
§
Having a trade area that is expanding as new homes generate higher demand for bulky goods than
established homes; and
§
Having a wealthy trade area with high disposable incomes. Higher income households spend
considerably more on bulky goods than lower income households.
Given the above, within this report Hill PDA assumed Box Hill would capture only 15% of bulky goods
expenditure from the Primary Trade Area and 5% from the Secondary Trade Area. The great majority of
expenditure is expected to escape the Precinct because there are significant bulky goods clusters like at
Norwest and Castle Hill which would capture the majority of this expenditure. Furthermore, its understood a
bulky goods precinct is proposed for Rouse Hill which will further capture this type of expenditure.
As a result, demand for bulky goods in Box Hill Town Centres itself is likely to be for those bulky goods
retailers that sometimes occupy a “mini-major” shop fronts, for example a Retravision store or a non-national
“mums and dads” furniture store.
8.8
Impact on Surrounding Centres
Box Hill Town has a Primary Trade Area that only covers the Box Hill Precinct and a small part of the Vineyard.
It will cater for the chore shopping needs of the new residential population who will occupy the Box Hill
Precinct, estimated to be around 33,000 people by 2031.
The majority of comparative goods shopping will still take place at the likes of Rouse Hill and Castle Hill Major
Centres. Both provide department stores (Myer and David Jones), discount departments stores, and a range of
specialty and bulky good retailers.
By 2031, the proposed Box Hill Town Centre will turn over around $316m this is based on assumed average
target turnover rates (in 2031) of:
§
$12,000/sqm for supermarkets;
§
$8,000/sqm for specialties;
§
$5,000/sqm for mini-majors; and
§
$4,500/sqm for department stores.
It is highly unlikely that the Major Centres or existing Town Centres would suffer social detriment and
significant closures as a result of proposed retail development in Box Hill.
In 2009 the Primary Trade Area and Secondary Trade Area had a population of around 3,350 people who
generated some $47.2m of retail expenditure. All of this expenditure is being captured by existing retail centres
such as Rouse Hill Town Centre, Riverstone, Stanhope Gardens, Castle Hill and so on.
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By 2031, the Primary and Secondary Trade Area will have a population of around 42,200 people who will
generate some $792m of retail expenditure. It is anticipated that the new Box Hill Town Centre and other
planned retail centres in Box Hill will capture around $335.9m of this retail expenditure (as indicated in Section
7.3 of this report).
The remaining $456.1m of retail expenditure generated by the Trade Areas will be captured by existing and
planned centres such as Rouse Hill Major Centre, Castle Hill Major Centre, Riverstone, Stanhope Gardens,
etc, as well as bulky goods precincts. Therefore by 2031 over half of available expenditure would still escape
the Trade Areas to higher order centres, especially given the role and function of Rouse Hill Major Centre
compared to Box Hill Town Centre.
In other words, the net increase in escape expenditure from 2009 to 2031 (in $2009) will be $408.9m.
8.9
Impact on Car Parking Provision
Generally, 1 car space is required for every 20 to 25sqm of retail GLA. The North West Structure Plan
recommends a Town Centre in Box Hill of around 20,000sqm to 25,000qm. Assuming this recommendation is
representative of retail GLA, a Town Centre of this size in Box Hill would require around 900-1,100 car spaces.
However, Hill PDA’s demand modelling within this report indicates that by 2031, the Box Hill Town Centre could
support around 30,000sqm of retail GLA. A Town Centre of this size would therefore require around 1,3001,400 public car spaces.
Hill PDA notes that Part D Section 1 of Baulkham Hills Development Control Plan (June 2010) requires minimum
car parking provisions as follows:
§
Commercial premises (including offices and professional chambers) – 1 space per 25sqm GFA;
§
Centre commercial – 1 space per 40sqm GFA; and
§
Retail shops (including shopping centres and general business retail) – 1 space per 18.5sqm GLA.
Based on a provision of 1 car space per 18.5sqm GLA, a Town Centre of around 30,000sqm would require
around 1,600 car spaces.
8.10 Impact on Local Employment
To update based on changes to centre size recommendations and add village centres.
The Box Hill Town Centre and the village centres have the potential to employ 1,200 to 1,600 full time and part
time jobs in retail and retail services in 2031 based on the following rates (GLA):
§
1 job per 45sqm of department store floorspace;
§
1 job per 40sqm of mini-major floorspace;
§
1 job per 21.3sqm of supermarket and grocery floorspace; and
§
1 job per 30.5sqm for specialty stores.
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Table 17 - Box Hill Town Centre Job Creation
Stage
Land Use
Short Term (by 2021)
Full-line supermarket
Specialty stores
Total by 2021
Mid to Long Term (by 2026 to 2028)
Total by 2026-2028
Discount department store
Supermarkets
Mini-majors
Specialty stores
Supermarkets
Specialties
Total by 2031
Shopfront
Floorspace (GLA)
3,000-4,000
2,500-3,000
5,000-7,000
6,000-8,000
3,000-4,000
4,000-5,000
7,000-9,000
25,000-34,000
4,000-5,000
6,000-9,000
40,000-48,000
1 job per
(sqm)
Total Jobs
21.3
30.5
140-190
80-100
220-290
110-180
140-190
100-125
230-300
800–1,100
190-240
200-300
1,200–1,650
45
21.3
40
30.5
21.3
30.5
Within this report, it’s recognised that up to 15% of specialty stores could be used by non-retail commercial
users.
8.11 Planning Control
Whilst staging the proposed centres will meet the objectives of the staging plan, there is no certainty that the
centres will be staged appropriately without adequate planning controls in place. Zoning land does not ensure
that centres will open at optimal times or expand at an appropriate rate. For example, if a private developer
proposed to open a 30,000sqm (GLA) retail centre in Box Hill by 2015 (well ahead of demand) the impacts on
existing centres (including Rouse Hill) may be significant.
There are several mechanisms for government to control staging of centres. The strongest area of control is
through ownership of property rights. If State (and possibly local) government had ownership of the land
(through compulsory acquisition or other means) it gives government the greatest control over staging.
If the land remains in private ownership then there are two main methods for controlling staging. Both of these
methods relate to controlling potential oversupply problems rather than ensuring the advancement of centres
to address undersupply.
Firstly, land could be zoned in stages to coincide with anticipated staging of development. With this method it
is important to quarantine land for future centres and expansion of existing centres. Quarantine means
retaining a non-urban or rural zoning on the land or zoning it for some low-value temporary use until such time
as the centre is required to be developed or expanded.
The other method is through special provisions in local planning instruments and Section 79C of the EPA in
relation to economic impact assessment at the development application stage. The hypothetical example of
the 30,000sqm (GLA) in Box Hill in 2015 would be refused on this basis because of its adverse impacts on
existing centres. Whilst economic impact should be addressed at the DA stage and is mandatory for consent
authorities to consider, private developers do have avenues of appeal. Hence there is less government control
over the outcomes compared to the other above options.
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Part B
Industrial and
Employment Lands
Analysis
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9. ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL AND
EMPLOYMENT LAND TRENDS
A number of local, regional and global trends affect employment generating land uses - particularly their type,
location and labour skill requirements, their success and economic viability. The following Chapter analyses
these trends at a macro and micro level, in order to better understand potential future influences to
employment and employment generating uses in Box Hill.
9.1
The Australian Economy
The current global economy is in the midst of a major correction phase. Over the last 20 - 30 years the global
economy has been buoyant and expansive, evidenced by low interest rates and resultant increases in the
amount of corporate and private debt. The collapse of the US property bubble resulted in what is now widely
referred to as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The GFC and its impact on consumption and world
production, dominates the current economic climate in western economies. This is currently a major factor
influencing business decisions and it is therefore essential to consider the longer term future trends when
preparing strategies to support sustainable growth in the future.
Australia has been less affected by the GFC than many of its trading partners and this can in a large part be
associated with:
§
The minerals and energy boom;
§
The financial system being less heavily geared; and
§
Australia’s main trading partner, China, continuing to experience economic growth as a result of its
political/economic system.
The Australian Government’s intervention including lowering interest rates, direct payments to households and
individuals and significant infrastructure expenditure has further helped to mitigate the impacts of the GFC.
Indeed 2010 has seen further interest rate increases on the back of improvements in many economic
indicators for 2009, including house prices, employment and business and consumer confidence. However the
impact of rising interest rates is affecting not only property markets but also retail spending and consumer
confidence, with consequent employment risks.
There continue to be concerns in global credit markets with sovereign debt risks being highlighted in the
European Union where Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are burdened by unsustainable debts which
combined with currency constraints are likely to see those countries suffer prolonged economic downturns.
The United Kingdom is also suffering from a major debt burden and economic weakness but is not constrained
by a common currency with the pound being devalued significantly since the GFC.
While China has maintained strong growth during the GFC, recent credit growth has seen major speculation in
property markets sparking fears of a property bubble. Recent constraints in credit growth have seen
substantial falls in some inflated markets and it remains to be seen how these markets will perform as credit
continues to be wound back. This global market will continue to present risks to the resource fuelled recovery
in Australia.
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9.2
Commercial Trends and Drivers
Traditionally commercial office space has been located within centres where it could cluster with a centre’s
retail, civic and community facilities. Norwest and Castle Hill remain the main location within the Hills Shire for
commercial and professional businesses comprising some 350,000sqm of commercial floorspace combined 13
and accommodating businesses such as legal advisors, consultants, financial institutions and Government
Departments.
Emergence of Business Parks
With the decline of the office market in the 1970’s in Australia and changes in business composition and
technology, over the last decade and a half there has however been a significant shift in the location of officebased activities. This shift has been towards business park developments and industrial zones.
These new centres (known as business parks) have generally grown along the new motor transport corridors.
Business parks have become a successful alternative location for commercial and industrial businesses to
traditional centres.
Business parks such as Norwest, Australia Centre and North Ryde are now recognised as highly successful
alternatives to traditional locations. Consistent across these parks are the following key characteristics:
§
They are predominantly office parks with a component of warehousing, and in some cases a
component of research and development and high-technology users;
§
Apart from providing A-grade commercial space, often with cheaper rent than Sydney CBD, business
parks enable purpose designed buildings and ample on-site car parking;
§
The provision of on-site amenities that attract large corporations, which follows in the footsteps of
business park developments in Britain and the USA;
§
They hold a sense of prestige, which is a further factor that attracts large corporations. Tenants sign
up with a business park for its marketable image. There is a preference for a good clean suburb,
which is away from polluting industries. Business parks enable large corporations to custom build their
headquarters, providing them with their own stand alone identity, which cannot be achieved in a CBD
building of mixed tenants;
§
They have lower floorspace ratios, typically 1:1 or lower compared to 2:1 (or higher) in established
commercial centres. This allows more cost-effective building construction; and
§
They have flexible floor plates and cheaper ground rent, which allows warehousing and office space
to be integrated.
Continued Demand for Commercial Offices
Deindustrialisation is a trend that is continuing to result in the decline of industrial jobs. This trend is a global
trend owing to the greater efficiencies of technology and mechanisation. Conversely, the increasing affluence
of Sydney’s population and growth of the New Economy (otherwise referred to as a knowledge and ideas
based economy) is expected to strengthen demand for commercial floorspace especially in key locations,
13
Colliers 2010, PCA 2010, Hill PDA Research 2010
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close to tertiary education and transport links. The global economic corridor between North Sydney and
Macquarie Park is an example of this approach within the Sydney Metropolitan Strategy.
Barkham (2002) notes that “Service sector organisations, both public and private sector, are the main users of
office space.” The key long term trend in office development has therefore been the growth in the service and
knowledge sectors. These sectors relate to civil service and public sector administration, banking, insurance
and finance, private sector administration (corporate headquarters etc), business services (law, accountancy
and consultancy) and consumer services (health, education, media etc).
In the 1970’s there were predictions that with technological advances, a much larger proportion of people within
the service and knowledge sectors would work from home, reducing employers’ overheads and demand for office
floorspace. This phenomenon has not been realised, with technology increasing the amount of out of hours work
taking place at home or on public transport. More than 80%14 of the persons employed across Australia still work
in business premises. Rather than a move away from businesses premises, technological advances have
contributed towards a greater choice of locations and higher densities of employment within offices with wireless
networks and the like facilitating initiatives such as “hot-desking”.
Sustainable Communities
With rising fuel prices and the introduction of mandatory energy efficiency disclosure for large commercial
buildings (>2,000sqm) by the Federal Government in the second half of 2010 sustainability will become an
increasingly important driver of price and demand. Sustainability is already a key driver, with the Jones Lang
LaSalle survey (2009) finding that whilst only 37% of corporate occupiers were willing to pay rental premiums
of between 1-10% for sustainable floorspace but almost 90% considered green building certification when
selecting premises.
The Jones Lang LaSalle Survey confirms our own view that energy efficient buildings are becoming the norm
and moving forward sustainability will increasingly affect all aspects of construction and services. From a
planning perspective, a sustainable approach should result in the more efficient use of land in established
centres to integrate employment opportunities and minimise the need to travel between home and places of
work.
Furthermore, with global and regional strategic planning policies focussed on the delivery of sustainable
communities, zoning for new business parks in out-of-centre locations should decline. There is evidence that
investors and developers are beginning to revisit traditional centres that offer a greater variety and choice of
shops and services together with higher levels of accessibility by sustainable modes of transport. However, the
economics of amalgamating sites and meeting market expectations will determine whether development of
these centres will eventuate.
Work Life Balance / Lifestyle Choices
An increase in the number of working hours per household has resulted in time pressures for the workforce.
Linked to this is the impact of a greater proportion of dual earning households that means less time for family
responsibilities. According to the ABS, the employment rate for women in Australia has steadily increased from
29% in 1954 to 47% in 1980 to 61% in 2000, with almost half of these having dependent children. In addition a
14
ABS Locations of Work Survey 2005
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large number of workers are responsible for caring for an ageing population (population aged 65 years and
over projected to rise from 12.2% in 1999 to 22% in 2030 and 26% in 2050).
As a result work places that enable workers to conveniently combine paid work, leisure and family
responsibilities are becoming increasingly attractive. Business parks and large scale CBD/edge of CBD
developments such as Norwest have generally endeavoured to emulate these features to some degree but
often do not provide the diversity and mix of uses to compete with a vibrant core CBD location.
It is considered that the need for offices to be conveniently located within a vibrant mix of uses will become
increasingly important to office workers and their employers. As such, work places that enable workers to
conveniently combine paid work, leisure and family responsibilities, are likely to be attractive to employers and
workers alike. CBD locations must offer improved access to high quality retail shops and services as an added
benefit which is often limited in business park locations. These should include a wide range of health, legal,
banking and government related outlets, as well as consumer outlets.
Child care is another critical factor which attracts a wider range of employees to consider a work location and
business parks often provide higher quality provision to ensure competitiveness, a factor which CBD locations
often lack.
9.3
Industrial Trends and Drivers
The demand for industrial floorspace is being influenced by trends such as the globalisation of trade and the
wider use of information technology. The global economy today consists of sophisticated linkages between
businesses, which are designed to enable the efficient sharing of information and the delivery of goods through
a global supply chain. This supply chain, once thought of as the flow of goods through production to the end
user, can now be seen as an alignment of firms that design, develop, market and produce goods and services,
and deliver them to the customer when needed.
An example of this change can be seen in the motor industry. Once concentrated in cities, the industry has
evolved into a process where design, manufacture, and assembly occur in many different locations worldwide.
Owing to the ability to utilise markets around the world, costs savings may be achieved by transferring the
manufacturing of goods to cheaper locations such as China and Indonesia. All this has heightened time based
competition and flexibility, with consequential implications for the functional characteristics and spatial
disposition of industrial activity.
Industrial floorspace used primarily for business related storage is in secular decline, whereas space built for
the transferral of goods is increasing. This ‘high throughput distribution’ space is essentially designed to
facilitate the rapid movement of goods through the supply chain. In essence, businesses with low inventory
turnover are gravitating to inexpensive land and low cost buildings.
In contrast, businesses that have high inventory turnover and high value products, and typically provide value
added functions (including product customisation, packaging, and customs) are more prepared to pay a
premium for excellent access to a large customer base and proximity in time and space to roads, ports and
airports.
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Over the past two decades, as a result of the industrial trends described above, the development of industrial
land and floorspace in NSW has generally occurred at a rate slower than employment growth. This however,
has varied considerably between specific sectors of activity. In manufacturing and wholesale trade,
employment growth has with only a few exceptions either declined or remained stagnant. Contrasting this
pattern has been the performance of transport and storage, which has shown strong growth.
In essence this economic trend may be summarised by the fact that traditional manufacturing is changing and
becoming more efficient in its processes as a result of the use of new technologies and equipment. These
greater efficiencies in many cases have not resulted in a decline in output but rather a reduction in the number
of staff required.
9.4
The New Economy
The New Economy is a term used to describe a knowledge and idea-based economy. In the New Economy,
the key to higher standards of living and job creation is the incorporation of innovative ideas and technologies
in services, products and manufacturing processes. It is characterised by technological innovation, ecommerce, digital transformation, higher education, skills and open trade. It differs from the previous economy
where there was less of a reliance on skills and education, technology and innovation and the key driver of
economic growth was the mechanisation of the production process.
Some of the key characteristics of the New Economy as it emerges include:
§
Higher levels of entrepreneurial dynamism and technological innovation due to increased competition.
Such innovation is characterised by research and development, and is the key driver of productivity
and ultimately wage growth, which benefits both consumers and the wider community;
§
An increase in knowledge based employment that stems from technological innovation, highlighting
the need for education and training;
§
An improvement in the efficiency of the design and production process, resulting in faster times to the
marketplace and to the end-user;
§
An increase in diversity in the products and services provided to consumers;
§
Increased reliance on the internet and other forms of information technology, especially in the service
sector. ‘Digitisation’ (using digital information technologies to produce goods and services) is also a
key driver;
§
Globalisation of the marketplace;
§
The restructuring of the hierarchical organisational structures with the emergence of the need for
government to co-invest and collaborate with other organisations, so as to achieve a wide range of
public policy goals; and
§
An increase in the importance of understanding the changing economy.
The goal for growing urban centres will be to foster innovation and adaptation, in order to secure a range of
employment options and industry diversity. In many industries, education and training, creativity and
adaptation have become the principle sources of competitive advantage. Efforts made by communities to
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foster the New Economy need to be proactive so as to ensure that the community has access to tertiary
education and lifelong learning opportunities.
In the New Economy, the public and private sectors must work together. Regional areas should form economic
policy councils that bring together key leaders in business, government, labour, civic groups and education, to
provide an in-depth analysis of the economy and to develop creative economic strategies, with these strategies
ready for adoption.
It is increasingly important in the New Economy that an LGA is attractive to ‘knowledge workers’, as they are
the key driver in the success of implementing the New Economy’s principles. There are many factors to
contribute to the attractiveness of an area, the most important of which is the quality of life/lifestyle on offer.
This is affected by such things as crime, amenities and transportation. The North West Growth Centre has
many lifestyle benefits that could attract knowledge workers including the natural environment, a proactive
Council, industry clusters, affordable housing and an abundance of recreation and leisure pursuits.
It will be imperative that the North West Growth Centre embraces the complementary lifestyle factors sought
by today’s knowledge workers, including high quality office space, a choice of restaurant and café destinations,
a range of entertainment facilities and an attractive night time economy.
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10. SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT LAND
This Chapter reviews existing industrial and employment precincts within the North West Growth Centre, as
well as precincts of influence in the surrounding local government areas of the Hills, Blacktown and
Hawkesbury. In accordance with the study brief, Hill PDA undertook a desktop review of the existing precincts
to quantify the amount of industrial and employment site area and/or floorspace.
10.1 The Hills Shire
For the purposes of this study, employment lands relate to land within the Hills Shire zoned 10(a) Business
Park, 4(b) Light Industrial, and 3(b) Commercial under Baulkham Hills LEP (2005). Land zoned 3(a) Retail has
not been included in our assessment. It is also important to note that commercial lands may collocate with land
zoned 3(a) Retail in Centres such as Castle Hill, Baulkham Hills, Norwest and the emerging Rouse Hill Major
Centre.
The Hills Employment Lands Direction indicates there is around 541ha of zoned employment land in the Hills
Shire. Of this, around 160.2ha is attributed to business parks, 327ha to light industrial zoned land and 53.8ha
to commercial zoned land.
Table 18 - Existing Employment Land in the Hills Shire
Employment Precinct
Norwest Business Park
Balmoral Road Release Area Existing
Total Business Park Land
Castle Hill
Annangrove Road
North Rocks
Northmead
Winston Hills
Mile End Road
Total Light Industrial Land
Caddies Creek Commercial
Baulkham Hills Town Centre
Coonara Avenue
Lloyds Avenue
Total Commercial Land
Total Employment Land
Function
Specialised business park, bulky goods retail
Business park, light industry
Light industry, bulky goods retail
Light industry
Light industry, warehousing
Light industry, bulky goods retail
Light manufacturing, light industry
Light industry
Commercial, vacant
Vacant Commercial
Light industry, vacant
Commercial
High technology, commercial
Commercial
Area (ha)
143.7
16.5
160.2
135.7
119.6
46.8
4.9
14.7
5.3
327.0
6.1
9.4
7.6
3.7
25.9
1.1
53.8
541.0
Source: The Hills Employment Lands Direction (2009) and The Hills Employment Study, Hill PDA (2008)
The following sections reviews each Precinct in greater detail with the information provided from Hill PDA’s
2008 Employment Study, The Hills Employment Lands Direction (2009) or other sources where indicated.
Norwest Business Park
The 377ha Norwest Business Park includes 143.7ha of business zoned land. There is around 759,000sqm of
floorspace within the Park of which around 700,000sqm is either industrial or commercial floorspace, with the
majority being commercial in nature.
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However, of the total floorspace attributed to the site, Hill PDA’s 2008 study on Employment Lands for the Hills
Shire indicates that only around 500,000sqm has been completed. The study further noted around 19.58ha of
land was vacant with 1.7ha pending approval.
Norwest provides employment for over 17,000 people and is expected to provide jobs for up to 35,000 people
when the business park reaches capacity in 2010. Norwest also includes a residential precinct for over 2,000
dwellings, a 22ha heritage park and over 30ha of open space.
FKP Property Group and Mulpha Australia Limited are developing Circa Precinct, the final release of Norwest
Business Park. Upon completion, the Precinct will include 350,000sqm of commercial, retail, leisure and
community uses. There are two remaining parcels of land available comprising one 4.6ha site and one 0.8ha
site. A summary of remaining land uses associated to the Precinct are provided below.
Table 19 - Circa Precincts, Norwest Business Park
Precinct
1
2
3
4
5
Land Use
CircaRetail (Woolworths + 25 specialties)
4 commercial buildings
3-4 commercial buildings from 6 to 8 levels. Gym and
childcare centre. Urban Park
4-12 commercial buildings from 3 to 8 levels, lakeside
open space.
Business Land for Sale
Total Floorspace
5,208sqm (GLA)
22,000sqm to 24,000sqm (GFA)
32,000sqm to 35,000sqm (GFA)
Land Area
TBC
TBC
TBC
90,000sqm (GFA)
4.7ha
4.6ha
Source: FKP Property Group (2010)
Figure 7 - Circa - Norwest Business Park
P5
P5
P4
P2
P1
P3
P4
Source: FKP Property Group (2010)
The remainder of Norwest comprises of many developments with a variety of tenants, including:
§
Commercial developments occupied by single or multiple tenants, such as the offices for Woolworths
Limited, Le Rêve Cosmetics, Modern Group (roof restoration and security), Optus Singtel
(telecommunications and data centre), Otto Bock (prosthetics), PMA Solutions (printing, warehouse
and distribution) and ResMed (medical equipment);
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§
Other commercial premises such as the Commonwealth Bank and the Norwest Family Medical
Centre;
§
Many bulky good premises, such as Bunnings, Accent Carpets and Complete Blinds;
§
Norwest Marketown and CircaRetail shopping centres; and
§
A mix of other non-retail premises such Sydney Ice Rink, Hillsong Church and Crowne Plaza Norwest.
The majority of the building stock is relatively new and generally A-Grade quality. The Park is managed and
maintained by the one association, being Norwest Association Limited. This single management group has
been set up to ensure the high quality of the character of the park remains.
Balmoral Road Business Park
Balmoral Road Business Park, located in Kellyville in the Hills Shire, is around 17.5ha (all of which is vacant).
The site is on the east side of Old Windsor Road north of the intersection with Burns Road, approximately
10km south of Box Hill.
Castle Hill
The 135.7ha Castle Hill Precinct is zoned light industrial and includes around 439,473sqm of commercial and
industrial floorspace. The Castle Hill Precinct comprises of many developments with a variety of tenants,
including:
§
Many industrial premises such as Todul, Mathi Products, Environmental Bio Tech;
§
Commercial developments occupied by single or multiple tenants, such as the offices for Gloria Jeans
Coffee, Syskim International and Spirac Engineering;
§
Other commercial premises such as the Commonwealth Bank and Coutts Industrial Real Estate
Agents;
§
Many bulky good premises, some located within purpose built bulky goods centres such as Castle Hill
Supa Centre and Homemaker City Castle Hill. Examples of tenants include Harvey Norman, Carpet
Court, Domayne, Hills Home Depot, Pine Tea and Coffee Pty Ltd and many home improvement
retailers and other furniture retailers;
§
Other retail premises such as Subway, Castle Newsagency, JustCuts, Oze-Pharmacy and Castle
Kebabs;
§
A number of Auto-Related businesses such as Power Ford Castle Hill, Goodyear Tyres, Tristar Auto
Electricals and O'Donnell Auto Repairs; and
§
A mix of other non-retail premises such Castle Hill Indoor Climbing Centre, Castle Hill Tavern and The
Hills Lodge (Grand Mercure).
Annangrove Road, Rouse Hill
The 104.4ha Annangrove Road Precinct is zoned for light industry and includes around 102.7ha of vacant land
and around 17,000sqm of floorspace. Upon full development it’s anticipated this Precinct could hold over
417,000sqm of floorspace. There are various light industries, warehouses and associated offices located in the
Precinct.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
North Rocks
The 46ha North Rocks Precinct includes a number of light industrial and warehousing premises, with some
auto repair establishments. Examples of tenants include Unilever and Rexona. The area was developed in the
1970s and the existing building stock is of a mixed quality. Redevelopment of some parts of the area may be
viable in the future.
Northmead
Northmead is a small 5.1ha light industrial area which currently comprises:
§
Bunnings Warehouse;
§
Industrial businesses, such as Cemex Concrete Lab, Propac Industrial Services and Foilmakers
Australia; and
§
Auto related businesses such as B&A Auto Care Centre, Less Pay Tyre Centre, and Mid City Motor
Repairs.
Winston Hills
The 14ha Winston Hills Precinct is occupied by a number of light industrial uses such as a pharmaceuticals
manufacturing company and a distribution centre. A golf driving range is also located within the industrial area.
The area is located within close proximity to the larger Seven Hills industrial area in Blacktown LGA to the west
which has a land area of 225.8ha.
Mile End Road, Rouse Hill
The 5.3ha Mile End Road Precinct is occupied largely by a number of retail pad sites including an Aldi
supermarket, Hungry Jacks, McDonalds, Red Rooster and residential properties. There are currently no
industrial type premises on the site.
10.2 Hawkesbury
The main industrial and employment land precincts within the Hawkesbury LGA within the vicinity of Box Hill
are Mulgrave and South Windsor. Also within the LGA but of less influence to Box Hill are the Wilberforce,
Richmond and North Richmond industrial precincts. In total there are around 142ha of industrial zoned land
and 40ha of commercial zoned land within the LGA 15.
There are around 55ha of vacant industrial land in the LGA, which is predominantly located within the
Mulgrave industrial precinct. There is only around 1ha of vacant commercial land in the LGA, which is located
in the Mulgrave precinct (0.7ha) and Windsor (0.3ha).
15
Source: Hawkesbury Employment Lands Strategy – Adopted Report (SGS 2008)
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
Mulgrave
The Mulgrave industrial and employment land precinct is located around 7km north west of Box Hill. The
precinct is bound by Windsor Road in the east, Railway Road to the west, to the south by Park Road and by
Mulgrave Road to the north. In total there are around 54ha of industrial zoned land and 7ha of commercial
zoned land within Mulgrave16.
The Mulgrave precinct is predominantly zoned 4(a) General Industrial; with sections of 4(b) Light Industrial as
well as an area zoned 3(b) Business Special. The industrial areas contain industrial park-style developments
(e.g. McGraths Hill Business Park) and stand alone light industrial businesses. These businesses are typically
manufacturing, auto-related, warehousing, storage and other local industries. The 3(b) area includes bulky
goods retailing (e.g. Home Central McGraths Hill - Bunnings, Harvey Norman etc) and a new 1,500sqm ALDI
supermarket on Curtis Road off Windsor Road.
The Mulgrave precinct generally consists of larger lots (>10,000sqm) with smaller lots (<5,000sqm) located in
the northern and southern parts of the precinct. The majority of the vacant land consists of larger sites.
In total there are around 192,000sqm GFA of industrial floorspace within the precinct (143,000sqm General
Industrial and 49,000sqm Light Industrial). Furthermore there are around 11,500sqm GFA of business
floorspace within the precinct (bulky goods, retail etc) 17.
South Windsor
The South Windsor industrial and employment land precinct is located around 11km north west of Box Hill. The
precinct is bound by the railway line in the north, to the west by the residential area and by rural land to the
east. In total there are around 53ha of industrial zoned land and 2.5ha of commercial zoned land within South
Windsor18.
The South Windsor precinct is predominantly zoned 4(a) General Industrial. There is also some land zoned
4(b) Light Industrial to the north of the precinct. The precinct consists of a range of industrial uses, particularly
timber related manufacturing business and industrial park-style developments (e.g. Woodlands Industrial
Estate).
The precinct generally consists of lots between 2,500sqm and 5,000sqm. There are also a couple of larger lots
i.e. up to 10,000sqm.
In total there are around 207,000sqm GFA of industrial floorspace within the precinct (193,000sqm General
Industrial and 14,000sqm Light Industrial). Furthermore there are around 20,000sqm GFA of commercial
floorspace within the precinct19.
16
SGS 2008
17
SGS 2008
18
SGS 2008
19
SGS 2008
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
10.3 Blacktown
Blacktown LGA is a popular location for transport, storage, manufacturing, distribution and logistics
businesses. Blacktown has the largest stock of zoned industrial land in Sydney. In total there are around
1,280ha of industrial zoned land (around 700ha of which is vacant), 806ha of employment lands and 190ha of
business zoned land within the LGA20.
There are a number of industrial and employment land precincts within the Blacktown LGA, including (but not
limited to) Blacktown/Kings Park (210ha), Seven Hills (210ha), Arndell Park (160ha), Huntingwood (130ha),
Glendenning/Rooty Hill (210ha), Riverstone-Vineyard (84ha) and Eastern Creek (700ha).
However, with the exception of Kings Park and Riverstone-Vineyard, these precincts are located outside the
vicinity of Box Hill, and as a result, do not directly influence future industrial and employment land uses at Box
Hill.
Kings Park
The 100ha21 Kings Park industrial precinct is located in the Blacktown North SLA, around 13km south of Box
Hill. The precinct is bound by Faulkland Crescent and Camorta Close in the north, Sunnyholt Road to the east
and to the west by Harvey Road. It lies directly north of the Blacktown industrial precinct.
Kings Park is an established industrial area, and is zoned 4(a) General Industrial to the south of Vardys Road
and 4(b) Light Industrial to the north of the precinct. Kings Park is also subject to State Environmental Planning
Policy (SEPP) Employment Lands.
The precinct consists of a range of industrial uses, including industrial park-style developments (e.g. the new
‘X-Change’ and ‘Signature’ Business Parks) and stand alone warehouses and industrial strata units. There are
also a range of businesses located in Kings Park, including (but not limited to) auto-related, self-storage,
building supplies, furniture manufacturers as well as other local businesses.
Riverstone-Vineyard
Riverstone-Vineyard, located 6km south west of Box Hill, is a predominantly rural residential area, with some
industrial land uses (around 8ha22). Part of Vineyard is located in Hawkesbury LGA. The existing RiverstoneVineyard industrial precinct is bound by Victoria Street in the north, the east by Hamilton Street, Riverstone
Parade to the west and to the south by Hobart Street. The existing precinct is zoned 4(a) General Industrial.
The precinct mainly comprises older stand alone factories and warehouses accommodating a range of
businesses including building and electrical supplies and local manufacturing businesses.
20
Source: Employment Lands for Sydney Action Plan, NSW Department of Planning (March 2007)
21
Hill PDA Estimate
22
Blacktown City Council
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
10.4 Planned Centres and Proposed Developments
The North West Structure Plan provides a guide to the location of future employment lands within the Growth
Centre. The specific location of each Precinct will be resolved through detailed Precinct Planning. The table
below summarises the primary industrial and employment lands Precincts.
Table 20 - North West Growth Centre Industrial and Employment Land Precincts to 2031
Release Precincts
Anticipated Function
Box Hill Industrial
Riverstone
Riverstone West
Riverstone West
Riverstone West
Marsden Park
Vineyard
Total
Light industrial and business park
Light industrial
Business Park
General Industrial
Light Industrial
Business Park
Employment Areas
Estimated Land
Provision
147ha
14ha
16ha
72ha
16ha
303ha
TBC
568ha
Estimate Number
of Jobs
TBC
TBC
12,000
10,000
TBC
22,000
In addition to the above planned industrial and employment land precincts, there are also a number of specific
developments in the pipeline in the vicinity of Box Hill. The table below summarises these developments,
including their approximate distance to the Box Hill.
Table 21 - Proposed Industrial and Employment Land Developments
Development
Distance to
Box Hill
7km
Total Additional
Floorspace
88,800sqm
Orbital Enterprise
Park, Marsden Park
8km
200ha
(developable area)
Norwest Business
Park
14km
At least
40,000sqm
Warwick Lane Mixed
Use Development
18km
n/a
Eastern Creek
20km
n/a
Minchinbury
Employment Park
20km
90,000sqm to
100,000sqm
Riverstone West
Warehouse
Comments
Construction of an 85,000sqm warehouse facility and
3,800sqm of ancillary offices. Major project application and
preliminary environmental assessment submitted.
The Marsden Park Industrial Precinct has been fast
tracked for development. Around 200ha of the 445ha is
owned by Marsden Park Developments who are proposing
the Orbital Enterprise Park. First buildings may be
completed by 2011. Not yet decided whether it will be
developed as a business park or logistics hub.
Several commercial developments planned, approved or
under construction. These include Circa Building A
(12,000sqm), Atlas (17,000sqm) and Eclipse (10,000sqm).
$400m redevelopment of the Warwick Lane site. Will
include community, commercial office, retail, residential
and public car parking. Blacktown Council has deferred
the project indefinitely.
Numerous employment land and industrial developments
planned, approved or under construction in Eastern Creek.
Includes a number of industrial warehouses, as well as
distribution/logistics centres (K Mart, Best & Less,
Woolworths, Myer).
Concept Planned Approval for a precinct Masterplan
covering almost 22ha, to be developed into warehousing,
light industrial, high tech & business park purposes.
Commencement likely in late 2011 (completion mid to late
2014).
Source: Reed Construction Data 2010, Hill PDA Research 2010.
In addition to the above there are also a significant number of smaller industrial and employment land
developments (i.e. <$20m) in the pipeline in the vicinity of Box Hill (i.e. stand alone warehouses or small
commercial office developments). Many of these developments have been deferred.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
11. EMPLOYMENT PROFILING
11.1 Resident Workforce by Occupation
The characteristics of the resident workforce are an important factor in defining a region’s employment
strengths and weaknesses. The term ‘resident workforce’ refers to the workforce within a particular area.
According to the 2006 ABS Census, a persons place of usual residence is the place where a person lived or
intended to live for a total of six months or more in 2006. It is important to note that the resident workforce (or
labour force) need not necessarily work within that area, but may travel outside the local government boundary
to work.
The resident workforce by occupation for the Hills Shire, and Blacktown and Hawkesbury Local Government
Area’s is summarised in the table below. The results indicate that the North West of Sydney is home to a large
proportion of professional and ‘knowledge workers’.
Table 22 - Resident Workforce by Occupation (2006)
Occupation
Managers
Professionals
Community & Personal Services
Clerical and Administrative
Sales Workers
Technicians & Trade
Machinery Operators & Drivers
Labourers & Related
Inadequately described
Unemployed
Total
Hills Shire
16.8%
25.4%
6.5%
17.2%
10.2%
11.2%
3.2%
4.8%
1.7%
3.2%
100.0%
Blacktown
LGA
8.1%
14.1%
13.5%
7.4%
17.6%
8.7%
10.5%
11.1%
2.2%
6.8%
100.0%
Hawkesbury
LGA
12.6%
14.6%
17.9%
8.5%
14.9%
8.2%
7.8%
9.6%
1.7%
4.1%
100.0%
Sydney SD
NSW
12.5%
22.5%
7.6%
15.8%
9.0%
12.0%
5.7%
7.6%
2.0%
5.3%
100.0%
12.8%
19.9%
8.1%
14.5%
9.1%
12.8%
6.1%
9.0%
1.8%
5.9%
100.0%
Source: 2006 ABS Census Data
The most common occupation for resident workers in the Hills Shire are professionals, following by other white
collar occupations (managers, clerical and administration, sales workers). Hawkesbury LGA had higher
proportions of professionals, managers and sales workers in line with trends across the Hills Shire. By
comparison, Blacktown LGA had a more even spread of occupations across residents, although with a higher
proportion of residents working as machinery operators, labourers and in community and personal services
than the Hills Shire.
11.2 Resident Workforce by Industry
The 2006 ABS Census also indicates which industries working residents are employed in. Across all Local
Government Areas were a high proportion of residents working in retail trade, health care, social assistance
and manufacturing. This was inline with trends experienced across Sydney and greater NSW.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
Table 23 - Resident Workforce by Industry (2006)
Industry
Hills Shire
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & waste
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information media & telecommunications
Financial & insurance
Rental, hiring & real estate
Professional, scientific & technical
Administrative & support
Public administration & safety
Education & training
Health care & social assistance
Arts & recreation
Other services
Inadequately described/Not stated
Unemployed
Total
0.6%
0.1%
9.1%
0.8%
7.8%
7.1%
11.2%
4.4%
3.3%
2.4%
6.0%
2.1%
9.2%
2.7%
4.5%
8.3%
9.8%
1.2%
3.9%
2.3%
3.2%
100.0%
Blacktown
LGA
0.5%
0.1%
13.7%
1.0%
6.8%
6.3%
10.1%
4.7%
6.9%
1.8%
5.1%
1.2%
4.5%
3.1%
5.6%
5.0%
9.1%
0.9%
3.7%
3.1%
6.8%
100.0%
Hawkesbury
LGA
3.0%
0.2%
10.8%
1.0%
11.1%
4.8%
10.0%
5.0%
4.9%
1.7%
2.3%
1.5%
4.5%
2.4%
8.4%
7.4%
8.3%
1.4%
4.4%
2.6%
4.1%
100.0%
Sydney SD
NSW
0.4%
0.2%
9.2%
0.8%
6.7%
5.3%
10.0%
5.7%
5.1%
2.8%
6.1%
1.7%
8.4%
3.2%
5.3%
6.8%
9.4%
1.4%
3.5%
2.7%
5.3%
100.0%
2.5%
0.7%
9.0%
0.9%
6.9%
4.4%
10.5%
6.2%
4.7%
2.2%
4.7%
1.6%
6.9%
2.9%
5.7%
7.1%
9.8%
1.3%
3.6%
2.5%
5.9%
100.0%
Source: 2006 ABS Census Data
The Hills Shire had a greater proportion of residents working in professional, scientific and technical industries
which may be due to the proximity of the Shire to the Norwest Business Park, Macquarie Park and Macquarie
University cluster of scientific and technical industries. By comparison, Hawkesbury LGA had a higher
proportion of residents working in construction than the remaining LGA’s and NSW.
11.3 Where Do Residents Work?
Journey to work data, as compiled by the NSW Ministry of Transport’s Transport Data Centre, from ABS
Census data, uses employment counts for specific locations to analyse the likes of commercial centres,
daytime population, profile of resident workforce, industry trends and method of travel to work. The following
table indicates where working residents from the Hills Shire travel to for employment.
Table 24 - Where Do the Hills Shire Residents Work?
LGA
The Hills
Parramatta
Sydney
Blacktown
Other
Total
No. Residents
23,890
9,210
8,310
6,219
36,464
84,093
Proportion
28.4%
11.0%
9.9%
7.4%
43.4%
100.0%
Source: ABS 2006, Journey to Work, Unpublished Data 2006
The results indicate that 23,890 people or only 28.4% of the total resident workforce live and work within the
Hills Shire. This means a significant number of residents leave the Shire boundary to work to other locations.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
The results indicate the most common place of work after the Hills Shire is Parramatta, the Sydney CBD and
Blacktown. This is not completely unsurprising, given the high proportion of white collar workers in the Shire
and the high concentrations of commercial office accommodation in the CBDs of Parramatta, Blacktown and
Sydney.
11.4 Where do Workers Come from?
Journey to work data also indicates where employees working in the Hills Shire live (i.e. who fills the jobs
located within the Shire). Results indicate around 52,113 jobs are located within the Hills Shire. Almost half of
these jobs are filled by local residents (45.8%). Around 14.3% of remaining workers reside in Blacktown, 8.6%
from Hornsby and 5.9% from Parramatta.
Table 25 - Where Do Workers in the Hills Shire Come From?
LGA
The Hills
Blacktown
Hornsby
Parramatta
Other
Total
No. Residents
23,890
7,439
4,463
3,076
13,245
52,113
Proportion
45.8%
14.3%
8.6%
5.9%
25.4%
100.0%
Source: ABS 2006, Journey to Work, Unpublished Data 2006
11.5 Jobs versus Working Residents
Given there are 84,093 working residents in the Hills Shire and 52,113 jobs located within the Shire, there is a
shortfall of some 31,980 jobs for local residents. The proportion of jobs in the Shire to the number of resident
workers in the Shire was 62% in 2006. This is lower than the average for the North West Region of 78% 23.
The Hills Shire Council has identified the need to foster the ongoing growth and diversity of local businesses
as a critical step in the development of the Shire’s economy into the future. In the Hills 2026 community
consultation process, residents identified the importance of working closely with small businesses as a major
employer of local residents. Some strategies suggested in The Hills 2026 Project Report include24:
§
Continuing to encourage small and large business to maintain the position as a leading hub for
national business;
§
Developing a strategy for growing small to medium enterprises plus home based businesses; and
§
Investigating the infrastructure and resource needs of the local industry sectors to ensure that
adequate provision of services is maintained and enhanced for the future, and attract new business
and interest to the area.
23
24
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
11.6 Employment Growth in the Growth Centre
There were approximately 237,000 jobs in the North West Subregion in 2001. Growth since 1981 was above
the average growth rate for the Greater Metropolitan Region. The North West Subregional Strategy (20062031) indicates the Subregion has an employment capacity target of 130,000 new jobs, which is 24% of the
total target for Sydney.
Table 26 - Job Growth in the North West Subregion to 2001 to 2031
LGA
Hills Shire
Blacktown
Blue Mountains
Hawkesbury
Penrith
Total
2001
53,000
83,000
19,000
24,000
58,000
237,000
2031
100,000
128,000
26,000
27,000
86,000
367,000
Growth to 2031
47,000
45,000
7,000
3,000
28,000
130,000
Source: North West Subregional Strategy (2006-2031), NSW Department of Planning.
Significant employment growth is expected to occur in Strategic Centres of the North West Subregion as well
as some larger local centres. Expected job growth in Strategic Centres of the Subregion to 2031 is provided
below.
Table 27 - Job Growth in Strategic Centres 2001 to 2031
Centre
Penrith Regional City
Blacktown Major Centre
Rouse Hill Planned Major Centre
Growth to 2031
11,000
25,000
5,000
3,000
9,000
Relevant to this study, the Subregional Strategy also sets an overall employment capacity target of an
additional 47,000 jobs for the Hills Shire from 2001 to 2031 comprising:
§
Norwest Business Park 25,000 jobs;
§
Castle Hill Major Centre 3,000 jobs;
§
Rouse Hill Major Centre 9,000 jobs; and
§
Rest of the Shire 10,000 jobs.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
12. DEMAND FOR EMPLOYMENT LAND
The following Chapter investigates the changing demand for employment generating floorspace other than
shopfront related space. These other forms of employment generating uses can be located in town centres,
business parks, industrial lands, special use zones, rural lands and in a minority of cases in residential areas.
The growth or decline of industries in these zones will have an impact on the extent of land required and the
appropriate form of planning controls.
12.1 Methodology for Determining Demand
The methodology used for forecasting demand for industrial zoned land is a bespoke employment lands
demand model (ELDM) developed by Hill PDA. This method converts job forecasts to land area requirements
by industry type within a defined “trade zone” or sub-regional area.
The 2005 Metropolitan Strategy identified a need for an adjustment to the concept of regional ‘containment’ in
response to the increasingly westward growth of the metropolitan area. There is now a focus on
accommodating growth in Sydney’s Outer Western Subregions. The rationale for this is to limit travel times for
residents on the urban fringe so that jobs, major shopping, and recreational activities, would be within a
reasonable travel time.
As a result, Hill PDA has defined the “trade zone” subject to the demand modelling by a target drive time of
approximately 15 to 20 minutes. For the purpose of the forecast this area has been defines as the Statistical
Local Areas (SLA) of Baulkham Hills North, Blacktown North and Hawkesbury.
The Hill PDA ELDM converts jobs to land area requirements by utilising three basic steps:
§
Apportion jobs by job types to the broad zones – rural, business, industrial and special uses;
§
Applying required floorspace areas (GFA in square metres) to each job by job type by zone; and
§
Dividing the result by a most likely floorspace ratio for each zone.
The demand for employment and industrial land from this job catchment is then compared the supply of zoned
and planned employment land in the catchment.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
Figure 8 - Statistical Local Areas (15 to 20 minute drive time)
Hawkesbury
Box Hill
Baulkham
Hills (North)
Box Hill
Industrial
Blacktown
(North)
Source: MapInfo (based on 2006 ABS Boundaries), Hill PDA 2010
12.2 Demand based on TDC Job Forecasts
The NSW Transport Data Centre establishes an employment projection of 11,900 and 24,300 additional jobs
for Baulkham Hills North, Blacktown North and Hawkesbury SLAs by 2036 (respectively). These 2009
forecasts are based on the detailed analysis of employment growth across the Sydney Greater Metropolitan
Region by industry category.
This data is distributed by LGA, SLA and Travel Zones. It is important to note the TDC employment forecasts
are made on particular assumptions regarding the global economy, increased productivity and the national
growth of Gross Domestic Product. Their assumptions include data relating to land releases, local area
population growth rates, industry trends about office space and storage, government policy on education and
health and so on.
The TDC’s employment forecasts take into account planned major developments and employment land
releases in areas that have not have had strong historical employment growth. The TDC also makes
adjustments for areas with very high rates of population growth, for example the North West Growth Centre,
where historical employment trends do not accurately reflect the future levels of jobs. The TDC has applied a
rate of 8 jobs per 100 new residents, which was then applied to the respective Travel Zones.
The TDC indicates the NSW Department of Planning population projections are used as the basis for
calculating workforce projections for the region. This is done by applying the projected labour force
participation and unemployment rates to the projected population.
Ref: C10059
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Hill PDA
The resulting projections of the workforce (at 5 year intervals corresponding to Census years) are used as
control totals for subsequent forecasts of employment at lower geographical levels. Once projections of total
employment are estimated, total region employment is then disaggregated using three forecast review
modules by TDC.
TDC forecast jobs for the three SLAs to 2036 are provided below.
Table 28 - Forecast Jobs in the North Baulkham Hills, North Blacktown and Hawkesbury SLAs to 2036
Industry
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Information media & telecomm.
Government Administration
Education
Health & Community
Cultural and Recreation
Personal and Other
Unclassified
Total
2006
2,200
105
7,158
393
5,840
2,786
6,117
3,501
2,060
585
854
4,956
3,917
6,150
4,442
684
2,372
1,488
55,608
2011
2,291
97
7,580
521
6,198
2,805
6,876
4,473
2,318
752
1,086
5,771
4,129
6,554
4,795
813
2,631
1,679
61,370
2016
2,355
106
8,072
600
6,306
2,990
7,992
5,318
2,432
807
1,225
6,476
4,249
7,275
5,549
858
2,898
1,820
67,327
2021
2,496
118
8,899
711
6,863
3,226
9,375
6,281
2,745
865
1,471
7,221
4,637
8,430
6,551
935
3,315
2,051
76,190
2026
2,552
125
9,697
812
7,398
3,352
10,746
7,310
3,028
899
1,767
8,190
4,879
9,518
7,558
1,007
3,676
2,184
84,699
2031
2,613
133
10,466
906
7,844
3,481
11,908
8,217
3,326
915
2,053
9,084
5,129
10,511
8,369
1,055
3,986
2,316
92,309
2036
2,686
141
10,864
1,012
8,085
3,520
12,785
8,878
3,579
928
2,208
9,627
5,418
11,462
9,066
1,101
4,218
2,451
98,027
Source: TDC October 2009
Whilst the TDC employment forecasts are widely used for planning purposes, as with any means of forecasting
long term trends there are limitations with their accuracy. Of particular relevance to this study is the potential
for changes to the rate of population growth and how this may affect the quantum of employment growth.
The Hill PDA ELDM converts jobs to land area requirements by:
§
Apportion jobs by job types to the broad zones – rural, business, industrial and special uses;
§
Applying required floorspace areas (GFA in square metres) to each job by job type by zone; and
§
Dividing the result by a most likely floorspace ratio for each zone.
The apportionment of jobs to the land use zones was based on data from benchmarked local government
areas. For the purpose of the exercise we selected Campbelltown, Liverpool, Camden, Baulkham Hills and
Warringah. The source of data is “Journey to Work” from the 2006 Census which provides destination of work
by industry type down to local travel zone levels.
The apportionment of jobs to the zones and required GFA per worker is presented in the following tables.
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Table 29 - Apportionment of Jobs to Zones
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Utilities
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information Media and Telecomm.
Financial and Insurance Services
Professional, Scientific & Technical
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts and Recreation Services
Other Services
Unclassified
TOTAL
Commercial
Centre
Industrial
Business
Park
Special
Uses
Residentia
l
TOTAL
5%
5%
5%
10%
10%
5%
70%
70%
5%
35%
55%
50%
70%
45%
30%
25%
30%
40%
34%
5%
5%
75%
60%
55%
75%
17%
15%
75%
30%
0%
0%
15%
10%
10%
30%
35%
15%
34%
0%
0%
20%
10%
20%
20%
13%
10%
20%
30%
40%
45%
10%
10%
15%
20%
15%
35%
23%
0%
0%
0%
20%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
30%
30%
15%
10%
5%
4%
5%
5%
0%
0%
15%
0%
0%
5%
0%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
15%
15%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Source: Hill PDA Estimate based on 2006 Journey to Work Benchmarks
Table 30 - Required GFA per Worker (sqm)
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Financial and Insurance Services
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Public Administration and Safety
Education and Training
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts and Recreation Services
Other Services
Unclassified
TOTAL
Commercial
Centre
Industrial
Business
Park
Special
Uses
35
35
35
35
35
45
45
60
45
45
25
25
25
35
35
35
35
35
39
35
35
80
80
80
80
85
80
200
600
40
50
50
60
60
60
60
60
93
45
45
50
80
50
60
60
70
60
60
35
40
40
50
50
50
50
50
50
35
35
80
80
80
80
85
80
220
650
35
45
45
60
60
60
60
60
61
Dividing the resultant floorspace by floorspace ratios (FSRs) provides an absolute net land area requirement.
A limitation with this method is the considerable variation in FSR that occurs between areas. Business zones in
particular can vary from a single storey shopping centre with ample at grade outdoor parking to multi-storey
buildings with basement, multi-deck and/or roof top parking.
Assumptions need to be made about the likely FSRs based on land economics and characteristics of the
defined area. Generally in fringe metropolitan areas the FSR is quite low – below 0.6:1 as this is the most cost
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effective form of delivery although recently there have been cases of development at higher densities (e.g.
Rouse Hill Town Centre). Business parks in suburban areas, such as Norwest, are generally developed to a
density between 0.8:1 and 1:1.
Most industrial lots are developed at an FSR between 0.5:1 and 0.8:1. Many planning instruments allow 1:1
but the economics of achieving this is difficult due to cost implications. There are some land uses in industrial
areas that have a much lower FSR because much of the activity is outdoors including for example: recycling,
vehicle hiring yards, storage and wholesale of outdoor landscape, building materials, etc.
Assuming a FSR of 0.8:1 in the business zones and a FSR of 0.65:1 in the industrial zone and 1:1 in the
business park demand for employment land is provided in the following table.
Table 31 - Required Land Area for Employment Areas by Census Year by Land Use Type (hectares)
Employment Zone
Commercial Centre
Industrial
Business Park
Special Uses
TOTAL
2006
115.0
305.7
63.2
49.3
533.1
2011
131.2
335.6
70.4
53.5
590.8
2016
148.6
358.7
77.3
60.2
644.8
2021
171.5
399.2
87.3
70.1
728.1
2026
194.3
435.6
97.1
79.6
806.6
2031
214.4
469.2
106.0
87.7
877.3
2036
229.9
492.6
112.3
95.2
930.0
Source: Hill PDA Estimate by applying required floor space per worker to number of workers
Assumes the following FSRs: 0.8:1 in commercial centres; 0.65:1 in industrial and 1:1 in Business Parks
Industrial floor space per worker is assume to increase at a rate of 0.5% every year
Assumes Internal Roads to Developable Area at the following rates: 20% in commercial centres; 20% in industrial and 20% in Business Parks
The above areas are net hectares and include areas for internal roads assumed to be 20% of the developable
area for commercial centres, industrial and business park zones and 10% of special use zones.
12.3 Demand Based on Job Containment Target
There are two drivers of employment within a local or Subregional area:
§
Population based: to serve the local population including schools, local shopping centres and
personal services etc; and
§
Other based: is referred to as “footloose” or “strategic” employment in the 2009 SGS report25. This is
employment that is attracted to an area by other factors including proximity to motorways, ports,
airports, public transport and other infrastructure, other markets, industrial agglomeration, etc. In
some cases the competition for jobs between areas can be quite wide. Businesses that meet this
definition may be defined as base industries.
Approximately one in three jobs may be regarded as population based. The SGS Study on employment and
retail demand in the Growth Centres developed benchmark employment numbers for the North West Growth
Centre to indicate the appropriate number of jobs within or adjacent to the Growth Centre given economic
development and integrated land use and transport planning objectives.
Based on the ratios of jobs to local workers for LGAs in the North West Subregion a ratio of 0.75 jobs to
workers were set as a benchmark for the North West Growth Centre. Hill PDA has adopted this 75%
25
Growth Centres Employment & Retail Strategy, SGS (2009)
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containment rate target for the North West Growth Centre. To reach this target some base industries need to
locate in the area.
The TDC job forecasts fall short of meeting the target of 75%. The ratio of jobs to working residents in 2006
was 86% (including part time workers). Assuming 2.2 part time workers equals one full-time equivalent worker
(FTE) the ratio was only 65%. Based on the TDC job forecast and the forecast of households in the subject
SLAs this ratio is expected to fall further to 48% assuming the level of FTE per household remains constant at
1.33 and the level of part time to total employed persons remains constant at 25.4%.
In order to correct this Hill PDA revised the forecast progressively upwards to meet the job ratio target of 75%
by 2031. This is shown in the following table.
Table 32 - Revised Forecast Jobs in the North Baulkham Hills, North Blacktown and Hawkesbury SLAs
to 2036
Industry
Mining
Manufacturing
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Information media & telecomm.
Government Administration
Education
Health & Community
Cultural and Recreation
Personal and Other
Unclassified
Total
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2,200
105
7,158
393
5,840
2,786
6,117
3,501
2,060
585
854
4,956
3,917
6,150
4,442
684
2,372
1,488
2,355
100
7,789
536
6,369
2,882
7,066
4,597
2,382
773
1,116
5,931
4,243
6,735
4,928
835
2,703
1,725
2,716
122
9,310
691
7,273
3,449
9,218
6,134
2,805
931
1,413
7,469
4,900
8,390
6,400
990
3,343
2,099
3,136
148
11,180
894
8,622
4,053
11,777
7,891
3,448
1,086
1,848
9,072
5,825
10,590
8,230
1,175
4,165
2,577
3,537
174
13,439
1,125
10,253
4,645
14,893
10,131
4,197
1,246
2,449
11,350
6,762
13,191
10,475
1,395
5,095
3,027
3,871
197
15,508
1,342
11,622
5,158
17,645
12,175
4,928
1,355
3,042
13,460
7,599
15,575
12,400
1,563
5,906
3,432
4,201
220
16,990
1,582
12,644
5,505
19,996
13,884
5,598
1,451
3,454
15,057
8,474
17,926
14,178
1,721
6,596
3,834
55,608
63,066
77,653
95,716
117,386
136,776
153,310
Applying the same floorspace and FSR requirements as the TDC demand forecast to the above results,
derives the following demand for occupied land area.
Table 33 - Forecast Occupied Land Area (Absolute Ha) to 2036 Based on Job Containment
Zone
Commercial Centres
Industrial
Business Parks
Special Uses
Total Demand
2006
115.0
313.3
63.2
49.3
540.8
2011
134.9
354.0
72.4
55.0
616.2
2016
171.4
424.5
89.2
69.5
754.5
2021
215.5
514.6
109.6
88.1
927.8
2026
269.3
619.4
134.6
110.3
1,133.6
2031
317.7
713.3
157.1
130.0
1,318.0
2036
359.6
790.8
175.6
148.8
1,474.7
The table shows demand for around 790ha of industrial zoned land by 2036. Again the above areas include
the area for local roads assumed at 20% of total developable area.
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12.4 Supply versus Demand
The final stage is to compare existing and planned employment and industrial land supply to the estimated
demand for this type of land to 2036.
Table 34 - Industrial and Business Park Land Supply vs. Demand
Forecast Demand
Existing Supply:
Baulkham Hills North SLA^
Blacktown North SLA^^
Hawkesbury SLA**
Subtotal Existing Supply
Planned Supply:
Riverstone
Riverstone West
Marsden Park
Vineyard
Subtotal Planned Supply
Total Supply
Supply Versus Demand
Industrial (ha)*
703
Business Park (ha)
85
52.1
108
107
267.1
-
14
88
241.5
343.5
610.6
(180)
16
67.4
83.4
83.4
(92)
* Includes Bulky Goods. ** South Windsor and Mulgrave only. ^ Annangrove Road and Mile End Road only.
^^ Kings Park and Existing Riverstone-Vineyard only
As the results show by 2036 there will be demand for around 790ha of industrial land as compared to the
611ha of supply (excluding potential supply at Box Hill) based on a target 75% containment rate (ratio of jobs
to working residents). This results in an undersupply of some 180ha of industrial land. The Annangrove
industrial area immediately adjacent to Box Hill has around 100ha of vacant land which can support much of
this demand.
Similarly for business park land, by 2036 planned supply of 83.4ha will be 92 hectares less than the 176ha
required.
However based on the TDC forecast there is a surplus of industrial land in the order of 118 hectares and a
deficiency of business park land in the order of 27 hectares.
Job density (workers per hectare) in the industrial zones is around 50 to 55. Not all sites zoned industrial and
for business parks will necessarily develop. It is usually desirable to “oversupply” the market in the order of
10% or more to ensure adequate price competition between land owners in delivering land for industrial and
business park development. The above figures suggest that land supply for industrial uses may be deficient.
It will be even more deficient for business park uses.
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13. IMPLICATIONS FOR INDUSTRIAL AND
EMPLOYMENT LANDS IN BOX HILL
13.1 Considerations for the North West Growth Centre
Norwest Business Park is widely recognised as having experienced significant growth and corporate attention
which has resulted in demand for extensive commercial and retail development. With the recent decline in the
Australian Economy and the flow on implications of changes in the Global economy, the capacity of large firms
to continue to expand and redevelop their headquarters could however change significantly in the future. It is
understood that there is around 5.4ha of vacant land available at Norwest.
Additionally, the development of new business parks (e.g. Marsden Park and Riverstone West) coupled with
the growth of other Business Parks in Sydney’s west and north (Sydney Olympic Park, Rhodes and Macquarie
Park) may also influence the continued realisation of Norwest’s growth. The proximity of these alternative
destinations to Sydney CBD, their location within the Global Arc and active marketing will provide alternative
prestigious options for companies to Norwest and other proposed business parks in the North West Growth
Centre.
Furthermore, Hill PDA understands there are discussions regarding new business parks at Rouse Hill Major
Centre and Edwards Road (north-east of the existing Annangrove Road industrial precinct). However, the
details of these proposals have not yet been confirmed.
Norwest also plays an important role as a result of the nature of employment it provides and the important
correlation this has with the skills of the local labour force. As a Business Park with a range of major tenants
and good quality office stock, Norwest has attracted large international companies with a focus on high skilled
jobs in information, communications, finance and technology. These jobs suit the skill profile of the Hills Shire
labour force and growth in these industries would minimise the need for residents to travel outside of the LGA.
A decline in industrial jobs and a forecast increase in skilled jobs also give rise to the success of Norwest,
largely due to the greater efficiencies of technology and mechanisation. Increases in jobs in property and
business services, communications, finance and insurance will also go some way to minimise the decline at
this level, however, the scale of commercial growth will not exceed the decline in industrial floorspace demand
in many cases.
Centres such as Norwest and Rouse Hill are the exception to this. The scale of their projected growth will
result in a net increase in demand for commercial and industrial land across the Hills Shire and the North West
Growth Centre, highlighting their significant importance to local job growth.
The employment destination of residents of the North West Growth Centre will become an increasingly
important issue especially if public rail transport is not extended past Rouse Hill. By providing additional
employment suited to these residents, job containment will improve and the number of residents leaving for
work should reduce.
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Another key issue for consideration is the provision of localised services and jobs that support urban function.
These services include auto repairs, household repairs and trades. These businesses are often marginalised
from centres owing to their appearance and potential for noise or smell. For these reasons they are well suited
to light industrial zones (such as the Annangrove Road Precinct) that are located in close proximity to the
centres and urban areas they serve.
Increasingly, owing to competition from alternative uses (particularly bulky goods retailing) these uses are
becoming outpriced and forced to relocate to alternative areas. In high value areas they are often forced to
relocate to other LGA’s with more affordable land. Despite this, local communities still depend on these
services and accordingly greater strain is placed on road infrastructure as residents and businesses are
required to travel further to access them.
13.2 Role and Function of Industrial and Employment Land
in Box Hill
Excluding potential supply at Box Hill, by 2036 there will be demand for around 790ha of industrial land as
compared to the 611ha of supply. This results in an undersupply of some 180ha of industrial land. The
Annangrove Industrial Area adjacent to Box Hill has around 100 hectares of vacant land which could absorb
much of this demand. The planned supply of business parks of 58ha will be less than one third of overall
demand for 176ha by 2036.
In addition to the retail centres employment lands should be provided for Box Hill in the order of 100 hectares
for light industrial and between 80 and 90 hectares for a business park.
Any area below the targeted level for employment uses would jeopardise the achievement of the job targets. If
site constraints limit the ability to achieve these numbers then alternative accommodation should be
considered. Business Park land will be required in the longer term if not in Box Hill then elsewhere in the
locality. Riverstone West will provide an adequate amount of land over the next decade but by around 2021 to
2026 Box Hill could potentially accommodate additional growth in demand.
Local Industry
Smaller, appropriately sized industrial areas provide local services to emerging populations. Preliminary urban
design options have provided for 41ha industrial land to the northern side of Annangrove Road. Given the
location of this site directly north of the existing Annangrove Road Light Industrial Precinct, the site would be
appropriate for local service industrial and urban services to meet demand from surrounding residential
populations. In that sense, it can be viewed as an extension to the existing Precinct.
Land uses can include the likes of auto smash repairers, tyre centres, car detailing, small warehouses, small
manufacturers, wholesaling, and building and construction services.
Principles for light industrial lands are as follows:
§
Attempt to preserve light industrial land adjacent to major/arterial roads.
§
Create and/or improve buffer areas around land zoned light industrial to reduce environmental impact
and land use conflict.
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§
Encourage the use of light industrial land to provide residential support services (including car and
house repairs).
§
Provide a range of lot sizes to accommodate a variety of industry types.
In this instance the IN2 Light Industrial Zone under the Department of Planning’s LEP Template may be
appropriate. The objectives of this zone are to:
§
Provide a wide range of light industrial, warehouse and related land uses;
§
Encourage employment opportunities and to support the viability of centres;
§
Minimise any adverse effect of industry on other land uses; and
§
Enable other land uses that provide facilities or services to meet the day to day needs of workers in
the area.
Business Park
Council and the Department of Planning have indicated interest in planning for a Business Park along Windsor
Road west of the intersection with Terry Road equivalent to around 50ha of land. In such a case the following
are key requirements for business parks that should be considered:
§
Business parks should be located in areas that will support the existing network of commercial
centres and can be accessed.
§
Business parks should only permit businesses that require large floor plates (more than 1,000sqm).
Those businesses that are purely office related and require small floor plates (i.e. local accountants,
solicitors, etc) should not be permitted within business parks but encouraged in commercial/retail
centres to help support their viability.
§
An Economic Impact Assessment should be undertaken at the rezoning or development application
stage, which needs to justify their location. It also should include an impact statement with regards to
the established centre hierarchy, and its use of existing and proposed infrastructure; and
§
Future business parks must demonstrate a contribution to subregional economic and job growth.
Based on the analysis within this report, Box Hill has some potential to become an attractive location for
commercial overflow owing to its road connectivity to Rouse Hill Major Centre and forecast residential
populations in the North West Growth Centre. Other attributes of Box Hill include lower land values and rents
comparative to locations and an increasing professional skilled local workforce into the future.
However, given existing, planned and proposed business park developments in Norwest, Rouse Hill, Marsden
Park, and so on, this may be in the very long term. Notwithstanding this, the potential long term take up for
such a use does not preclude planning for it now.
The key is to provide a flexible zoning to allow interim land uses to develop so the land is not sterilised and
undevelopable until such time as commercial office development in this location is desired. The most
appropriate short to medium term land use in this instance would be general industrial. Land uses in this
instance could include the likes of depots, freight transport facilities, warehouses or distribution centres.
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In this instance there are various zones under the Department of Planning’s LEP Template which may be
appropriate including the B5 Business Development Zone, B6 Enterprise Corridor Zone and B7 Business Park
Zone. A comparison of the objectives of these zones is provided below:
§
B5 Business Development Zone: enable a mix of business and warehouse uses, and specialised
retail uses that require a large floor area, in locations that are close to, and that support the viability
of, centres.
§
B6 Enterprise Corridor Zone: promote businesses along main roads and to encourage a mix of
compatible uses, provide a range of employment uses (including business, office, retail and light
industrial uses) and residential uses (but only as part of a mixed use development) and maintain the
economic strength of centres by limiting retailing activity.
§
B7 Business Park Zone: provide a range of office and light industrial uses, encourage employment
opportunities and enable other land uses that provide facilities or services to meet the day to day
needs of workers in the area.
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Part C
Draft Indicative
Layout Plan
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14. DRAFT INDICATIVE LAYOUT PLAN
This report was prepared to assist the design brief for the indicative layout plan. In accordance with above
findings AECOM prepared the draft Indicative Layout Plan prepared which is shown on the map below (over
page). Maximum employment numbers were calculated from the assigned land areas and floor space ratios
by assigning employment densities and efficiency ratios to the different zones. The employment levels are
calculated in the table below.
Table 35 - Estimated Employment Calculations
Worker
Density
(GLA/
worker)
Internal
Efficiency
Worker
Density
(GFA/
worker)
FSR
External
Efficiency*
Jobs /
Dev. Ha
Hectares
No. of
Jobs
GLA
(sqm)
35.0
82.5%
42.4
1.00
77.5%
182.7
58.4
10,668
373,395
31.0
82.5%
37.6
0.70
77.5%
144.4
2.9
419
12,979
Light Industrial
(Annangrove Rd)
80.0
100.0%
80.0
0.65
77.5%
63.0
60.4
3,803
304,265
Town Centre
31.0
77.5%
40.0
0.50
77.5%
96.9
9.2
891
27,629
Village Centres
31.0
80.0%
38.8
0.50
77.5%
100.0
5.5
550
17,050
136.4
16,332
735,318
Non Residential
Land Use Type
Business Park
(Windsor Rd)
Business (Adjoin
Town Centre)
Total
* Allowance for internal roadways
Note the above numbers include both full-time and part-time workers. The vast majority of workers in the
business park and industrial zone will be full-time but in the commercial centres as much as 60% of workers
are expected to be casual and part-time.
The mix is appropriate although the business park at 58 hectares is a little smaller than the 80 hectares
recommended in Part B and the industrial zone at 60 hectares is more than adequate to meet BTS job
forecasts but a little below the 100 hectares recommended in Part B to meet the 75% job containment target.
Furthermore the commercial centres zones are a little small to achieve single level retail with at grade parking.
To achieve 45,000sqm or more leasable space it will be necessary for the FSR to achieve at least 0.5. This
will require a large proportion of parking and/or loading facilities to be provided either below and/or above the
retail level.
Ref: C10059
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Ref: C10059
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DISCLAIMER
This report is for the confidential use only of the party to whom it is addressed (the client) for the specific
purposes to which it refers. We disclaim any responsibility to any third party acting upon or using the whole or
part of its contents or reference thereto that may be published in any document, statement or circular or in any
communication with third parties without prior written approval of the form and content in which it will appear.
This report and its attached appendices are based on estimates, assumptions and information sourced and
referenced by Hill PDA and its sub consultants. We present these estimates and assumptions as a basis for
the reader’s interpretation and analysis. With respect to forecasts we do not present them as results that will
actually be achieved. We rely upon the interpretation of the reader to judge for themselves the likelihood of
whether these projections can be achieved or not.
As is customary, in a report of this nature, while all possible care has been taken by the authors to prepare the
attached financial models from the best information available at the time of writing, no responsibility can be
undertaken for errors or inaccuracies that may have occurred both with the programming or the financial
projections and their assumptions.
This report does not constitute a valuation of any property or interest in property. In preparing this report we
have relied upon information concerning the subject property and/or proposed development provided by the
client and we have not independently verified this information excepted where noted in this report.
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Appendix 1 - NORTH WEST GROWTH CENTRE PRECINCTS
Alex Avenue
Alex Avenue was one of the first release Precincts in the North West Growth Centre. It is bounded by
Burdekin Road to the south, Schofields Road to the north, Richmond Rail Line to the west and the Second
Ponds Creek release area to the east.
The Alex Avenue Precinct was rezoned for urban development in May 2010. The 420ha Precinct will deliver
capacity for more than 6,300 new dwellings to accommodate 18,000 residents. It will also feature:
§
32ha of open space;
§
Two new schools with adjoining playing fields;
§
At least 25,000sqm of retail space; and
§
A new railway station at Schofields with a commuter car park.
North Kellyville
North Kellyville was rezoned in December 2008. It was one of the first release Precincts in the Growth Centres
and the first in the North West Growth Centre to be placed on exhibition via the Precinct Planning process.
The North Kellyville Precinct is around 707ha and is bounded by Smalls Creek to the west, Cattai Creek along
the east and north, and Samantha Riley Drive to the south.
The North Kellyville Local Centre will be focused around a traditional ‘main street’, with two supermarkets, a
range of specialty shops and commercial floorspace (both shopfront and shop top). The centre has a potential
floorspace of up to 15,000sqm. It is envisaged that this centre will ultimately have a multipurpose community
centre, child care centre and a medical centre, with a primary school located nearby.
Hezlett Road Village will be located at the junction of Hezlett Road and Samantha Riley Drive and incorporate
up to 3,000sqm of retail and commercial uses. With a convenience retail focus, this centre is likely to
incorporate one small supermarket and a range of specialty shops, with potential for a service station. The
centre will be characterised by a compact urban form, and active ground floor uses such as shops, restaurants
and cafes to activate streets and encourage social interaction.
The Stringer Road Neighbourhood Centre will be located at the intersection of Stringer Road, Barry Road and
Hillview Road, opposite sporting fields. Providing up to 1,000sqm of retail floorspace for uses such as cafes
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Hill PDA
and restaurants, this centre will provide for the small-scale retail and community use needs of the local
community. It is envisaged that the centre will consist of mixed use buildings, with retail uses on the ground
floor and residential uses above.
Marsden Park Industrial
The Marsden Park Industrial Precinct in the North West Growth Centre is the first Precinct to be released
under the Precinct Acceleration Protocol. The planning of the Precinct will be fully funded by the proponent,
who will deliver this planning and major infrastructure at no additional cost to the Government - fulfilling a key
condition of the Protocol.
The 551ha Precinct will deliver employment land and investment to Sydney's northwest region. Marsden Park
Industrial Precinct was placed on exhibition in April 2010, with infrastructure construction to start as early as
next year. The Marsden Park Industrial Precinct has the potential to provide land for around 10,000 jobs for
Sydney’s northwest. The draft plans for the Marsden Park Industrial Precinct feature:
§
67ha of business park;
§
36ha of bulky goods retailing;
§
200ha of light industrial land; and
§
A mix of residential housing close to the planned Marsden Park town centre just to the north of the
Precinct to accommodate 3,200 people.
Riverstone
Riverstone is bounded by Bandon Road to the north, Schofields Road to the south, Richmond Rail Line to the
west and First Ponds Creek and Windsor Road to the east. The Riverstone Precinct was rezoned for urban
development in May 2010. The 975ha Precinct will deliver capacity for more than 9,000 new dwellings to
accommodate almost 27,000 residents. It will also feature:
§
14ha of employment land;
§
Three new primary schools and a new K-12 school;
§
A new railway station at Vineyard with a commuter car park;
§
Neighbourhood centres at Vineyard and Schofields;
§
A new community services hub at Riverstone; and
§
Upgrades to major roads.
Landcom is also involved in the Masterplanning of Riverstone. Landcom is working in liaison with the local
landowners, the NSW Government and Blacktown City Council to facilitate the coordinated and viable
development of the Riverstone Scheduled Lands.
Riverstone West
The 285ha Riverstone West Precinct is located to the west of the Richmond Rail Line between Riverstone and
Vineyard stations, and extending west to Eastern Creek. The rezoned Precinct the potential for over 12,000
new jobs t has been planned and rezoned for development.
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The Riverstone West Precinct is approximately 285ha, located west of the Richmond rail line between
Riverstone and Vineyard stations and extending west to Eastern Creek. The key features of the draft
Riverstone West Precinct Planning Package include:
16ha of land zoned for commercial uses (B7) in a business park setting with up to 250,000m2 of commercial
office floorspace;
§
72ha of land zoned for industrial uses (IN1), with approximately 500,000m2 of industrial floorspace;
§
16ha of land zoned for light industrial uses (IN2);
§
An intermodal facility and new electricity substation; and
§
Potential for a sustainable energy plant, located in the vicinity of the existing STP and Transgrid
substation.
Development provided for by this plan is estimated to cater for up to 12,000 jobs.
Riverstone West Rezoned
The Government Gazette of 7 August 2009 formally rezones Riverstone West by making an Amendment to
State Environmental Planning Policy (Sydney Region Growth Centres) 2006 (the Growth Centres SEPP). The
Riverstone West Precinct is the first employment Precinct within the North West Growth Centre to be
completely planned, publicly exhibited and rezoned via the Government's successful Precinct Planning
Process.
A public exhibition of the draft Precinct Plans was held in March and April 2009. Feedback during this process
has led to the rezoning of land which has the potential for 12,000 jobs.
Colebee
Colebee was rezoned through the Local Environmental Plan process undertaken by Blacktown City Council.
The development delivered the first homes to the Growth Centres.
Area 20
The Area 20 Precinct is in the Blacktown LGA and is one of the first release Precincts. Following a Precinct
Boundary Review Process, the planning for Area 20 will now encompass a portion of land from Riverstone
East Precinct. At around 245ha, the area to be planned will have capacity for around 2,500 new dwellings,
including higher-density housing.
It will be bounded by Windsor Road and Schofields Road, with Second Ponds Creek flowing through the
centre. It sits opposite the Rouse Hill Regional Centre. The Precinct also takes in part of Rouse Hill Regional
Park and Rouse Hill House and Farm.
Schofields
Schofields Precinct is one of the second release Precincts in the North West Growth Centre. It is bounded by
Grange Avenue to the north, Quakers Hill Parkway to the south, Richmond Rail Line to the east and Eastern
Creek to the west.
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The 424ha Schofields Precinct is expected to accommodate around 5,000 dwellings and a population of
14,000 people. The Precinct will be supported by a new Town Centre in the Alex Avenue Precinct and new rail
station as part of the Quakers Hill to Richmond Duplication Project. The Schofields Precinct currently consists
of a mix of urban areas, farming lands and the Schofields Aerodrome site.
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Hill - Growth Centres

Transcription

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