Toekomst van het volwassenenonderwijs - Dirk Van Damme

RLLL-RLLL-DOC-1516-029
TOEKOMST VAN HET
VOLWASSENENONDERWIJS
Dirk Van Damme
OECD/EDU/IMEP
Schema
• Demografische, sociaal-economische en
onderwijsuitdagingen en trends
• Het aanhoudende probleem van lage competenties
• Participatie
• Worden competenties gewaardeerd op arbeidsmarkt en
in samenleving?
• Leermotivatie en leerklimaat
• Beleidsvragen
• Enkele conclusies
UITDAGINGEN EN TRENDS
Uitdagingen en trends
• Demografie en migratie
• Nog steeds lage werkzaamheidsgraad ouderen,
dus veel actieve vroeggepensioneerden
• Blijvende instroom laaggeschoolde en
laaggeletterde jongvolwassenen
• Werkloosheid en inactiviteit
• Steeds hogere en complexere competentie-eisen
China
Indonesia
Mexico
Turkey
Costa Rica
Brazil
Portugal
Saudi Arabia
Spain
Colombia
Iceland
Italy
South Africa
Chile
New Zealand
Norway
Greece
Sweden
Denmark
Belgium
EU21 average
OECD average
Netherlands
France
Latvia
United Kingdom
Australia
Luxembourg
Hungary
Germany
Lithuania
Estonia
United States
Austria
Ireland
Finland
Israel
Switzerland
Slovak Republic
Canada
Slovenia
Poland
Czech Republic
Russian Federation
Korea
Percentage of 25-34 year-olds with attainment below upper
secondary education (2014)
70
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hogere en complexere competenties
6
Hogere en complexere competenties
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution (US)
70
Nonroutine interpersonal
65
Nonroutine analytic
60
55
50
45
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
40
Routine cognitive
35
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2006
2009
7
LAGE COMPETENTIES NOG
STEEDS ERG REËEL PROBLEEM
Percentage of adults at each literacy level
Japan
Finland
Netherlands
Sweden
Australia
Norway
Estonia
Slovak Republic
Flanders (Belgium)
Canada
Czech Republic
Average
Denmark
Korea
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Germany
United States
Austria
Poland
Ireland
France
Cyprus¹ ²
Spain
Italy
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent
Mean and .95
confidence interval
for mean
Skills of adults
Literacy
5th
25th
75th
95th
Japan
Finland
Netherlands
Australia
Sweden
Norway
Estonia
Flanders (Belgium)
Russian Federation³
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Canada
Average
England (UK)
Korea
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Denmark
Germany
United States
Austria
Northern Ireland (UK)
Poland
Ireland
France
Spain
Italy
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
PIAAC mean literacy proficiency scores for 25-64 yearolds by educational attainment (2012)
Tertiary Education
Below upper secondary education
Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education
330
310
290
270
250
230
210
11
Proficiency in problem solving in technology-rich
environments
Young adults (16-24 year-olds)
All adults (16-65 year-olds)
Sweden
Finland
Netherlands
Norway
Denmark
Australia
Canada
Germany
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Japan
Flanders (Belgium)
Average
Czech Republic
Austria
United States
Korea
Estonia
Slovak Republic
Ireland
Poland
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
Level 2
Level 3
12
Percentage of adults with good information and communication technologies and
problem-solving skills, by educational attainment (2012)
Tertiary
Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education
Below upper secondary
%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Russian Federation
Estonia
Poland
Korea
Ireland
Canada
Slovak Republic
Japan
Austria
United States
Average
England/N. Ireland
(UK)
Germany
Flanders (Belgium)
Denmark
Australia
Finland
Norway
Czech Republic
Sweden
The Netherlands
0
PARTICIPATIE EN EFFECT
Less than 50% of adults participate in formal and/or
non-formal education in a given year in Flanders
Adult participation in formal and/or non-formal education (2012)
%
100
90
80
70
66
66
66
64
64
59
60
58
56
56
53
53
51
51
50
50
50
49
48
47
42
40
36
35
33
30
25
20
20
10
Russian Federation
Italy
Slovak Republic
Poland
France
Japan
Spain
Austria
Flanders (Belgium)
Czech Republic
Korea
Ireland
Average
Estonia
Germany
Australia
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Canada
United States
Netherlands
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
Finland
0
Ongelijkheden in participatie in PIAAC
Likelihood of participating in adult education and training, by
level of literacy proficiency
Odds Ratio
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4/5
8
7
6
5
Reference group:
Below Level 1
4
3
2
1
17
Participatie volgens arbeidsmarktstatus
%
Employed
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Unemployed
Inactive
The higher the level of skills, the more likely the
participation in employer-sponsored education
Participation in employer-sponsored formal and/or non-formal education, by skills and readiness to use
information and communication technologies for problem solving (2012)
Group 4
(Good ICT and problem-solving skills)
Group 3
(Moderate ICT and problem-solving skills)
Group 2
(Failed ICT core test or minimal problem-solving skills)
%
Group 0
(No computer experience)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Russian Federation
Poland
Japan
Slovak Republic
Austria
Korea
Flanders (Belgium)
Czech Republic
Germany
Ireland
Average
Estonia
Canada
England/N. Ireland
(UK)
Australia
Sweden
United States
Netherlands
Finland
Norway
Denmark
0
Semi-skilled blue-collar occupations
Elementary occupations
Russian Federation
Semi-skilled white-collar occupations
Italy
Skilled occupations
Slovak Republic
France
Poland
Austria
Spain
Japan
Korea
Czech Republic
Flanders (Belgium)
Average
Canada
Ireland
Germany
Estonia
Australia
United States
England/N. Ireland
(UK)
Netherlands
%
80
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
Finland
Participation in employer-sponsored education, by occupation (2011, 2012)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Proficiency growth
Actual and predicted literacy proficiency for 26-27 year olds in PIAAC.
•
Proficiency predicted on basis of average PISA reading score in 2000, estimated
years in education by age 27 and labour market conditions over 2008-2011
310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
Actual
Predicted
KWALIFICATIES MAAR OOK
COMPETENTIES ZIJN VAN BELANG
Relatief belang formeel onderwijs en
geletterdheid op loon
Relatief belang formeel onderwijs en
geletterdheid op loon
The effect of education and literacy on labour
market participation
25
Employment rate and earnings by educational
attainment and literacy - Flanders
Average monthly
earnings ($USD)
Employment rate (%)
100
5000
90
4500
80
4000
70
3500
60
3000
50
2500
40
2000
30
1500
20
1000
10
500
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4/5
Earnings
0
0
ISCED 0/1/2
ISCED 3/4
ISCED 5/6
26
Maar sociale effecten van competenties zijn geringer
Likelihood of positive social and economic outcomes among highly literate adults
(scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)
Average
Germany
England (UK)
Flanders (Belgium)
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
Odds ratio Good to
excellent
health
Being
Employed
High levels of Participation in High levels of
trust
volunteer
political
activities
efficacy
High wages
27
An individual with higher levels of literacy is more likely
to trust others
Proportion of adults reporting that they trust others, by PIAAC literacy proficiency level (2012)
%
Level 1 or below
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4 or 5
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Slovak
Republic
Estonia
Italy
Czech
Republic
France
Korea
Germany
Japan
Ireland
Poland
England/N.
Ireland (UK)
Average
Flanders
(Belgium)
Canada
Spain
Austria
United States
Australia
Finland
Netherlands
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
0
LEERKLIMAAT
Kwalificatie-behoefte
Leerbehoefte
Field-of-study mismatch
Leervraag
Participant, wanting learning activities
Participant, not wanting learning activities
Non-participant, wanting learning activities
Non-participant, not wanting learning activities
United States
Denmark
Korea
Sweden
Estonia
Canada
Spain
Ireland
Finland
Germany
Norway
Average
England/N. Ireland (UK)
Australia
Netherlands
Austria
Japan
France
Flanders (Belgium)
Czech Republic
Italy
Poland
Slovak Republic
Russian Federation*
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Participatie en leervraag
BELEIDSVRAGEN
Enkele beleidsvragen
• Financiering
– Toenemende belang niet-publieke financiering in
post-initiële educatie
– Overheid trekt zich terug op financiering
leerplichtonderwijs
– Rol bedrijfsleven in beroepsgerichte en duale
trajecten
– Discussie ondersteuning kwetsbare studenten en
vraagstimulering
Enkele beleidsvragen
• Professionalisering leraren
– Heel uiteenlopende systemen
– Vaak aparte opleidingsroutes en certificering
leraren volwassenenonderwijs, maar soms ook
geen echte noodzaak certificering
– Zij-instroom en part-time aanstellingen
Enkele beleidsvragen
• Institutionalisering
– Aparte systemen van volwassenenonderwijs erg
zeldzaam
– Vaak ingebed in hoger onderwijs (community
colleges) of beroepsonderwijs
– Belangrijk: systemen van credit-transfer
– EVC-systemen zijn veel minder succesvol dan
verwacht, maar meestal decentraal, op niveau
instellingen georganiseerd
ENKELE CONCLUSIES
Enkele conclusies
• (Droom van een) levenslang lerende samenleving
nog niet gerealiseerd
• Objectieve kwalificatie-behoefte relatief laag,
subjectieve leervraag relatief zwak, leerklimaat
relatief slecht
• Onderwijssysteem schermt risico’s
ongekwalificeerdheid en laaggeletterdheid
onvoldoende af
• Vraagstimulering bij kwetsbare doelgroepen blijft erg
belangrijk
Enkele conclusies
• Arbeidsmarkt wordt stilaan meer competentie- en
minder kwalificatie-gedreven
• Relatief goede verticale match kwalificaties en skills
met arbeidsmarktnoden, maar wel inhoudelijke
mismatch
• Arbeidsmarkt niet flexibel genoeg om mismatches
ook te vertalen in leervraag
• Impact competenties op sociale uitkomsten en
sociale cohesie relatief beperkt
Dank!
dirk.vandamme@oecd.org
www.oecd.org/edu/ceri
twitter @VanDammeEDU
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