Waverley Employment Land Review Update

Transcription

Waverley Employment Land
Review Update
August 2014
Table of contents
Chapter
Pages
Executive Summary
Scope and purpose of study
Key findings
1
1
1
1.
Introduction
About this report
Methodology
3
3
3
2.
Employment land supply
Introduction
Total stock
Survey of designated employment sites
Sources of employment floorspace supply
Key messages
5
5
5
6
10
19
3.
Analysis of local property market
Introduction
Property market indicators
B-Class commercial property market
Conclusion
21
21
21
25
27
4.
Stakeholder consultation
Introduction
Existing situation
Type of B-use class demand
Policy issues
Opportunities and constraints for future growth
Conclusions and implications
29
29
29
29
30
30
30
5.
Future employment land requirements
Introduction
Methodology
Scenario 1: Experian based scenario
Scenario 2: Higher growth scenario
Scenario 3: Trend based scenario
Conclusions
32
32
32
32
34
35
37
6.
Future employment site supply requirements
Introduction
Refining a future portfolio of employment sites
Supply update
Demand / supply balance
Conclusions
39
39
39
39
42
44
7.
Conclusions and policy implications
Supply and demand balance
Policy implications
Implementation
A.1.
Experian forecasting methodology
Introduction
46
46
47
49
51
51
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Regional and local area forecasts
Full-time equivalent employment definition
A.2.
Summary Site Results
51
52
54
Tables
Table 2-2
Table 2-6
Table 2-7
Table 2-8
Table 2-9
Table 5-1
Table 5-2
Table 5-3
Table 5-4
Table 5-5
Table 5-6
Table 5-7
Table 5-8
Table 5-9
Average Size of Premises (sqm)
Summary of B-class Floorspace Unimplemented Permissions
Vacant parcels in surveyed designated employment development sites
Land with scope for intensification / redevelopment (medium – long term)
Proposed employment site boundary amendments
Employment density and plot ratio assumptions
Waverley Employment Forecasts – Experian based scenario (full time equivalent jobs)
Waverley B use class floorspace need (sqm) – Experian based scenario
Waverley B use class land need (ha) – Experian based scenario
Assumed employment growth 2013-2031 (FTEs) – Higher growth scenario
Additional floorspace and land requirements – Higher growth scenario
Trend-based employment projections
B use class floorspace need (sqm) – Scenario 3
B use class land need (ha) – Scenario 3
6
13
14
16
18
32
33
33
34
35
35
36
37
37
Figures
Figure 2-1
B-class Floorspace in Waverley Borough 2000 to 2012
6
Figure 2-2
Quality of Vacant B-class Floorspace in Employment Development Sites
11
Figure 3-1
Total office floorspace leased by type (March 2012 - March 2014) and average rental
23
Figure 3-2
Total industrial floorspace leased by type (March 2012 – March 2014) and average rental 24
Figure 3-3 Total B class employment floorspace premises leased by type (March 2012 – March 2014) (sqm)
25
Figure 3-4
Availability of industrial and office floorspace against last quoted rental value
25
Figure 3-5
Marketed industrial and office floorspace by quality and average rental (£ per sqm)
26
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Executive Summary
Scope and purpose of study
Atkins Ltd were commissioned to update key elements of the Waverley Employment Land Review (ELR)
undertaken by Atkins in 2008 and previously updated in 2011 on behalf of Waverley Borough Council in
order to analyse the future demand for employment land in the Borough to 2031.
The Waverley Employment Land Review provides a robust evidence base and associated policy
recommendations to assist in the development of the Council’s planning policies and land allocations. The
study assesses the current provision for employment land in the Borough and provides an assessment of the
commercial property market and likely future demand for employment land and premises.
The study has involved a comprehensive assessment of the future demand for employment land that
complies with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG),
including the need to be more flexible and responsive to market signals.
Key findings
Supply of employment floorspace
A total of 150 employment areas are identified by Waverley Borough Council as employment areas, which
provide around 264,000 sqm of B class employment floorspace. Warehousing & distribution (B8) constitutes
the largest proportion with a 42% share of total B-class employment floorspace, which is followed by office
development with a 33% share and light and general industrial (B1c / B2) with a combined share of 25%.
In total, 70 sites were identified as achieving a threshold of 0.5ha. Appraisals were conducted for 67 of these
employment areas (which achieved over 0.5ha in area and were not omitted due to redevelopment etc). The
major purpose of the site appraisals was to identify vacant / opportunity land that could contribute to the
future employment land supply up to 2031. For this reason, the assessment focuses on sites of at least 0.5
ha, as these represent the greatest opportunity for development and intensification.
Demand for employment floorspace
Three scenarios have been developed to understand Waverley’s future employment growth prospects:

Experian based scenario - based on the outputs of Experian’s employment forecasting model:
(B1a/b = increase 42,000 sqm; B1c/B2 = decline -13,600 sqm; B8 = increase 22,300 sqm)

Higher growth scenario – uses Experian’s forecasts as the starting point but assumes a higher level
of employment growth:
(B1a/b = increase 63,100 sqm; B1c/B2 = decline -9,100 sqm; B8 = increase 33,400 sqm)

Trend-based scenario - based on Waverley’s historic job levels between 2000-2012:
(B1a/b = increase 11,000 sqm; B1c/B2 = decline -21,400 sqm; B8 = decline -7,600 sqm)
Source of supply
Potential sources of employment floorspace supply provide around 59,900 sqm of employment land that
could be brought forward in the short to long term:

Employment floorspace from vacant land in surveyed employment areas (short term): total gain of
around 37,000 sqm;
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


Employment floorspace from the intensification of land in surveyed employment areas (medium-long
term): total gain of around 24,100 sqm;
Employment floorspace from the intensification of land in surveyed employment areas (long term):
total gain of around 14,300 sqm; and
Commercial development pipeline: total loss of around 15,600 sqm.
Supply – demand balance
The Table below sets out the relationship between the estimated demand and supply of employment
floorspace in the Borough by type of floorspace.
Supply/demand floorspace balance by 2031 (sqm)
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
Experian based
-31,700
25,300
15,600
9,200
Higher growth
-52,700
32,100
4,400
-16,200
-600
33,100
45,400
77,900
Trend based
The comparison of the potential supply of employment floorspace with the forecast demand is summarised
below:



Office and R&D floorspace –demand for B1a/b floorspace is projected to outstrip supply under all
three scenarios. Taking the middle point between the Experian-based and Trend-based scenarios,
Waverley is projected to need some 16,000 sqm of additional B1a/b floorspace by 2031.
Light industrial and general industrial floorspace – overall the demand for floorspace is anticipated to
decline, leading to a surplus of industrial land under all three scenarios. The main challenge is
therefore to safeguard good quality industrial sites and consider the release of surplus sites that are
not fit for purpose.
Warehousing and storage – the capability to meet anticipated demand is satisfied under all three
scenarios and a surplus is projected. This is dependent on the identified supply coming forward for
development.
Future employment land need
Overall, Waverley has historically recorded low levels of employment growth as the Council’s policies have
mainly focused on preserving the character of Waverley’s market towns. This is expected to continue to be
the case over the coming years resulting in relatively modest levels of employment growth and additional
employment land requirements. Employment growth is mainly expected to come from B1 sectors and
primarily from small and medium sized enterprises.
Under the trend based scenario, Waverley will have no net additional employment land requirements over
the period to 2031, with the projected increase in B1 demand balanced out by the forecast decline in B2 and
B8 land requirements. Under the Experian-based scenario Waverley is forecast to need approximately 7 ha
of additional employment land by 2031.
The above are based on a purely quantitative assessment of supply and demand however. A key challenge
for Waverley will be to safeguard its good quality employment sites in order to be able to meet the needs of
local businesses while releasing surplus industrial and warehousing land that is not fit for purpose in order to
help relieve the strong housing pressures.
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1.
Introduction
About this report
1.1.
This report updates key elements of the Waverley Employment Land Review (ELR) undertaken
by Atkins in 2008 and previously updated in 2011. This update provides up to date analysis of
the Borough’s employment land supply as well as an assessment of the likely demand for
employment land and premises over the period to 2031.
1.2.
The structure of the report is as follows:






1.3.
Chapter 2 presents an analysis of Waverley’s current employment land supply;
Chapter 3 presents an analysis of Waverley’s commercial property market;
Chapter 4 presents the findings of the stakeholder consultation undertaken as part of this
study;
Chapter 5 examines the likely future demand for employment land in Waverley;
Chapter 6 sets out the supply demand balance for employment land in Waverley; and
Chapter 7 presents the report’s conclusions and policy implications.
It is noted that because of the rounding of the numbers presented in this report there may be
instances that numbers may not appear to completely add up. This is entirely the result of
rounding as it is considered best not to present numbers with many decimals in this report. This
is the case for two reasons. Firstly for presentation and legibility reasons but primarily because
numbers with many decimals imply a level of accuracy that cannot be achieved when dealing
with long-term forecasts.
Methodology
1.4.
1.5.
1.6.
The study has involved a comprehensive assessment of the future demand for employment land
that complies with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and the Planning Practice
Guidance (PPG), including the need to be more flexible and responsive to market signals.
The Primary Objective of Assessing Need
Guidance for assessing economic development needs has been targeted at supporting local
planning authorities to objectively assess and provide evidence for the development needs for
economic development. The stated primary objectives for assessing economic development
needs is to identify the future quantity of land or floorspace required for economic development
uses including both the quantitative and qualitative needs for new development and to provide a
breakdown of that analysis in terms of quality and location and to provide an indication of gaps in
current land supply.
Defining need
The guidance defines ‘need; for economic development. It is outlined that ‘need’ should address
the total quantity of economic floorspace required, based on quantitative assessments and
consider the qualitative requirements for each market segment. Additionally the guidance
recommends that any assessment of need should be realistic in taking account of the particular
nature of that area (for example geographic constraints and the nature of the market area).
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1.7.
1.8.
Demand analysis
An examination of the future employment needs in Waverley Borough was undertaken that draws
upon the Estates Gazette (EGI) commercial property database to identify ‘market signals’, such
as vacancy rates, stock and rental levels by location and property type. A stakeholder
consultation was undertaken to gain an understanding of the needs and aspirations of
businesses in the study area.
An assessment of the future employment needs in Waverley over the period to 2031 was
undertaken based on a range of employment growth scenarios:



1.9.
1.10.
1.11.
Experian based scenario;
Higher growth scenario; and
Trend-based scenario.
Property market & stakeholder consultation
A property market analysis was undertaken for the Borough and analysis of the wider context in
neighbouring boroughs was undertaken. In addition, a consultation took place with key
stakeholders to obtain local views on employment land need.
Supply analysis
1
A robust assessment of 67 existing employment sites (that achieved a site area over 0.5ha) was
undertaken this collected a mixture of qualitative and quantitative data. Site issues and scope for
change were analysed to assess their suitability for employment uses and ability to meet future
business accommodation requirements to 2031.
Potential sources of employment floorspace supply provide were identified that could be brought
forward in the short to long term.
1.12.
Supply – demand balance
The estimated demand and supply of employment floorspace in the Borough was considered by
taking account of the supply and comparing this against the demand outputs of the three
scenarios.
1.13.
Recommendations
The study concludes with policy recommendations for achieving a demand – supply balance and
meeting employment demands for the period to 2031.
1
The following sites were omitted from the analysis. Site 4 - Expedier House and Site 109 - 6a Wrecclesham Road have been redeveloped for housing.
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2.
Employment land supply
Introduction
2.1.
This chapter provides an overview of the total stock of existing B-class employment land and
provides the headline results of the comprehensive review of employment areas and premises
within the Borough of Waverley. The results of this analysis provide the basis upon which to
consider how future employment land requirements (detailed in Chapter 5) can be met.
Total stock
2.2.
Valuation Office Agency (VOA) data provides the most recently available details of business units
in Waverley Borough that are subject to business rates. The VOA assesses the 1.8 million nondomestic properties in England and Wales that are liable for business rates and collects
information on these properties, including the type of property, the location, the floorspace and
rateable value. Commercial data sourced from Estates Gazette (EGi) provides details of
currently marketed B-class floorspace within the Borough. The two sources of data together allow
for the identification of the total stock of B-class employment land within the Borough.
2.3.
B-class floorspace located within designated employment development sites and undesignated
employment sites has been considered. The employment development sites are protected for
employment generating uses in the Council’s Local Plan (as show in Table 2.1). Undesignated
employment development sites relates to employment floorspace that is located outside of the
designated employment development sites.
2.4.
The VOA data (Table 2-1) identifies that Waverley Borough has approximately 264,000 sqm of
B-class use employment floorspace. The majority of this floorspace consists of warehousing &
distribution (B8) with a 42% share of total B-class employment floorspace. The next largest share
of B-class employment floorspace accommodates office development with a 33% share of total
B-class employment floorspace. Light and general industrial (B1c / B2) development constitutes
the smallest share of B-class employment floorspace with a combined share of 25%.
2
Table 2-1 Total Stock of B-class Employment Land
Location
B1a/b (sqm)
B1c (sqm)
B2 (sqm)
B8 (sqm)
Total (sqm)
Designated Employment
3
Development Sites
25,373
21,357
4,798
40,712
92,240
Undesignated
4
Employment Sites
61,670
28,463
10,434
71,197
171,764
Total (sqm)
87,043
49,820
15,233
111,908
264,004
33%
19%
6%
42%
100%
Total (%)
5
Source: Atkins based on VOA and EGI data
2.5.
Table 2-2 provides an indication of the average size of different B-class premises within
Waverley Borough. Average warehousing premises (B8) are the largest at 269 sqm. The overall
2
Employment Development Sites (protected under Policy IC2 – Safeguarding Suitably Located Industrial and Commercial Land)
identified on the proposals map of the Adopted Local Plan, April 2002
3
Includes 134 sites
4
Employment Development Sites that contain B class uses and are located within Waverley Borough and are not included on the
proposals map of the Adopted Local Plan, April 2002
5
Site 102 – Mullard Space Science Laboratory has been estimated.
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average for all premises is 130 sqm. There is little variation in average premises size designated
employment development sites and undesignated employment sites,
Table 2-2 Average Size of Premises (sqm)
Borough
B1a/b (sqm)
B1c (sqm)
B2 (sqm)
B8 (sqm)
Total (sqm)
Designated Employment
Development Sites
101
142
171
259
157
Undesignated
Employment Sites
68
118
230
276
118
Average (sqm)
75
127
208
269
130
Source: Atkins based on VOA data, 2010
2.6.
Figure 2-1 presents estimates of total B-class use floorspace in Waverley for the period 2000 to
2012 using Valuation Office Agency (VOA) latest available data. Office floorspace has steadily
risen, whilst industrial floorspace has grown at a steady rate over the 12 year period. It should be
noted that the variation in total floorspace between Figure 2-1 and Table 2-1 is as a result of
differences in how the VOA experimental data in Figure 1 has been analysed compared to the
data in Table 2-1. The key differences are: the classification of properties (VOA do not classify by
use classes); timing and content of data extracts (Figure 2-1 relates to VOA data as at 1st April
each year); geography (VOA use post code level data); rounding (the experimental data is
rounded to the nearest 1,000 sqm).
B class employment floorspace (sq.m)
Figure 2-1
B-class Floorspace in Waverley Borough 2000 to 2012
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Industrial
Office
Total
Source: VOA – Commercial and Industrial Floorspace and Rateable Value Statistics (2000– 2012) Experimental Data.
Survey of designated employment sites
2.7.
A total of 150 employment areas are identified by Waverley Borough Council as employment
6
areas. 70 sites of these sites were identified as achieving a threshold of 0.5ha. Appraisals were
6
The Local Plan (2002) identifies that of this total, there are 51 designated employment areas are protected under Policy
IC2 – Safeguarding Suitably Located Industrial and Commercial Land.
6
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conducted for 67 of these employment areas (which achieved over 0.5ha in area and were not
omitted for the reasons stated below).
2.8.
The major purpose of the site appraisals was to identify vacant / opportunity land that could
contribute to the future employment land supply up to 2031. For this reason, it was determined
that sites should be assessed that achieved a land area of more than 0.5 ha, as these represent
the greatest opportunity for development and intensification.
2.9.
Of the 70 sites (achieving over 0.5 ha), three of the sites were omitted from the site analysis due
to the following reasons:
2.10.
2.11.

Site 4 - Expedier House - has been redeveloped for housing.

Site 109 - 6a Wrecclesham Road - has been redeveloped for housing.
Sites without land area information in the Council’s records were checked for inclusion in the site
analysis. From this analysis the following sites (that may have been over 0.5ha) were omitted for
the following reasons:

Sites 51, 104,119 and 137 had no information on size of site or location.

Site 73 – Scats and Site 128 – Fresham Garden Centre are used for retail.

Site 133 – Blacknest farm has been redeveloped for housing
Table 2-3 identifies the distribution of B class employment floorspace across the 67 sites, which
equates to around 154,160 sqm. The largest concentrations of floorspace is located at site 136
Dunsfold Park, Dunsfold (around 35,820 sqm), site 61 Coxbridge Business Park, Farnham
(around 15,140 sqm) and site 41 Farnham Trading Estate, Farnham (around 10,250 sqm).
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Table 2-3
Total Occupied B-class Floorspace in Surveyed Employment Development Sites
Total B-class Floorspace Percentage Share of
in Surveyed Designated Total B-class Floorspace
Land Area
Employment
in Surveyed Designated
Settlement
(ha)
Development Sites
Employment
(sqm)
Development Sites (%)
Site
No.
Site Name
1
Bramley Business Centre
Bramley
0.5
977
0.6%
5
Weyside Park
Godalming
3.2
6,900
4.2%
6
Westbrook Mills
Godalming
2.2
901
0.5%
9
Mill Pool House / The Old
Mill / Rover Court
Godalming
0.7
1,557
0.9%
10
Mountain House / Craven
House
Godalming
0.7
1,083
0.7%
11
Smithbrook Kilns
Cranleigh
2.35
1,934
1.2%
19
Lion & Lamb Yard
Farnham
0.6
490
0.3%
27
Romans Business Park
Farnham
0.9
3,139
1.9%
28
Romans Industrial Park
Farnham
0.5
689
0.4%
29
Farnham Business Centre
Farnham
29
603
0.4%
30
Riverside Park Industrial
Estate
Farnham
0.6
2,273
1.4%
32
Millennium Centre
Farnham
0.9
693
0.4%
33
Headway House
Farnham
0.7
73
0.0%
34
Astra Works
Cranleigh
0.5
174
0.1%
36
Jewson Ltd
Cranleigh
0.8
433
0.3%
38
Abbey Business Park
Farnham
1.4
1,010
0.6%
39
Farnham Business Park
Farnham
1.9
3,279
2.0%
40
Hurlands Business Park
Farnham
0.5
1,200
0.7%
41
Farnham Trading Estate
Farnham
9.7
10,225
6.2%
42
Monkton Park
Farnham
1.0
1,392
0.8%
43
Bourne Mill Business Park
Farnham
1.3
1,468
0.9%
44
Grovebell Industrial Estate
Farnham
1.0
1,662
1.0%
46
Hewitts Industrial Estate
Cranleigh
3.0
5,515
3.4%
48
Unicorn Trading Estate
Haslemere
0.7
474
0.3%
50
Kings Road Industrial
Estate
Haslemere
1.4
2,849
1.7%
52
Preymead Industrial Estate
Farnham
0.5
3,965
2.4%
54
Fisher Lane Factory
Chiddingfold
0.9
886
0.5%
55
Little Mead Industrial Estate
Cranleigh
2.1
2,470
1.5%
56
Weydown Industrial Estate
Haslemere
1.8
1,624
1.0%
57
Whitesales Rooflights
Cranleigh
0.6
1,969
1.2%
58
Weyburn Works
Godalming
3.5
-
0.0%
60
Tanshire House / Oak
house
Godalming
1.3
740
0.5%
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Land Area
Employment
Settlement
(ha)
Development Sites
Employment
(sqm)
Site
No.
Site Name
61
Coxbridge Business Park
Farnham
8.7
16,046
9.8%
62
Manfield Park
Cranleigh
1.9
3,384
2.1%
63
Moor Park House
Farnham
3.5
177
0.1%
65
Surrey Sawmills
Farnham
0.9
657
0.4%
67
Godalming Business Park
Godalming
0.8
1,426
0.9%
69
Ashcombe Court
Godalming
0.8
39
0.0%
88
Coopers Place
Wormley
1.7
3,993
2.4%
91
Depot Witley Station
Wormley
0.6
888
0.5%
92
Corium House & Innovation
House
Godalming
0.9
1,227
0.7%
93
Langham Park
Godalming
1.8
1,169
0.7%
94
Anvil Park / Wurth House
Godalming
1.5
23
0.0%
95
Cranleigh Brickworks
Cranleigh
20
830
0.5%
96
Hogs Back Sandpit
Farnham
27.9
-
0.0%
97
Woodside Park Industrial
Estate
Godalming
2.1
4,249
2.6%
98
Coombers Ltd (Sawmills)
Haslemere
0.9
329
0.2%
99
Chiddingfold Storage Depot
Dunsfold
2.8
1,987
1.2%
101
Longdene House
Haslemere
1.5
948
0.6%
102
Mullard Space Science
Laboratory
Ewhurst
13.7
-
0.0%
103
Old Ewhurst Brickworks
Ewhurst
4.6
91
0.1%
110
Guildford Road Trading
Estate
Farnham
1.4
2,439
1.5%
111
Swallow Tiles Ltd
Cranleigh
0.9
531
0.3%
112
Jewsons
Godalming
0.8
462
0.3%
114
Stonebridge House
Godalming
0.1
468
0.3%
118
WBC Depot
Farnham
1
448
0.3%
122
Borelli Yard
Farnham
0.5
254
0.2%
125
Brokenbog
Churt
2.4
685
0.4%
127
The Old Sand Pit
Farnham
0.9
2,035
1.2%
134
SCC Highways Depot
Milford
0.9
131
0.1%
136
Dunsfold Park
Dunsfold
39.4
44,161
26.8%
138
Gastonia Coaches
Cranleigh
0.6
9,286
5.6%
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Land Area
Employment
Settlement
(ha)
Development Sites
Employment
(sqm)
Site
No.
Site Name
142
Catteshall Manor
Godalming
8.9
15
0.0%
146
Smithbrook Barns
Bramley
0.9
169
0.1%
148
Harvest Wood Products Ltd
Tilford
2.2
171
0.1%
149
Greenhills Rural Enterprise
Centre
Tilford
2.0
2,860
1.7%
236.95
164,503
100.0%
Total
Source: Atkins based on VOA and EGI data
Sources of employment floorspace supply
2.12.
The Borough has a number of potential sources that could bring forward new employment
floorspace, as follows:
Vacant floorspace
2.13.
Vacant floorspace refers to vacant premises which are marketed (vacant land is considered
below). The EGI availability data has been analysed to give an indication of the current availability
of B-class floorspace. Table 2-4 identifies the amount of vacant floorspace in the Borough
including all vacant floorspace that is in the EGI database. It should be noted that there may be
other floorspace currently available that is not currently being marketed.
2.14.
Site work undertaken as part of this study also identified vacant B-class floorspace within
premises where this was advertised. The largest proportion of vacant B-class floorspace within
premises which was identified during employment land appraisals was within site 136 Dunsfold
Park, Dunsfold and site 5 Weyside Park, Godalming.
2.15.
Table 2-4 presents EGI data and VOA data. The EGI data identified that Waverley Borough has
approximately over 28,200 sqm of B-class floorspace that is being actively marketed; the majority
is B1a/b use class with some 17,600 sqm and followed by B8 (around 5,000 sqm). Vacancy rates
have been identified by calculating vacant floorspace as a percentage of total B-class floorspace
as outlined in Table 2-1.
2.16.
There is currently a vacancy rate of 11% of all B-class floorspace in the Borough, which is
considered to be an acceptable level of vacancy which allows for churn in the market (based on
Consultants’ experience). The highest proportion of vacancy is located within the undesignated
Employment Development Sites (9%). The highest concentration is in B1a/b use classes with a
vacancy rate of 6%.
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
10
Table 2-4 Vacant Floorspace and Vacancy Rate by Use Class
B1a/b
Location
B1c
B2
B8
Total
sqm
%
sqm
%
sqm
%
sqm
%
sqm
%
Designated
Employment
Development Sites
1,121
0%
0
0%
1,121
0%
1,121
0%
3,363
1%
Undesignated
Employment
Development Sites
16,502
6%
594
0%
3,893
1%
3,893
1%
24,881
9%
Total
17,623
7%
594
0%
5,014
2%
5,014
2%
28,244
11%
Source: Atkins based on EGI and VOA data. Figures in the table are rounded
2.17.
Figure 2-2 illustrates the quality of vacant premises within employment sites identified by
Waverley Borough Council. Second hand - Grade B floorspace makes up 92% of vacant premises
within, followed by existing new build (4%). New and refurbished premises are more attractive to
new investors and are therefore potentially more likely to be occupied more quickly than secondhand buildings.
Figure 2-2
Quality of Vacant B-class Floorspace in Employment Development Sites
7
New - New Build
(existing)
New - New Build (under
construction)
New - Refurb (existing)
Second-hand Grade B
Source: Atkins based on EGI data
2.18.
Table 2.5 provides an analysis of vacant floorspace by employment area. The main concentration
of vacant floorspace (B1a) is located in site 135 – Dunsfold Park (8,341 sqm), site 5 – Weyside
Park (1,641 sqm) and site 120 – Bridge House (1,248 sqm).
2.19.
It should be noted that the figures shown in Table 2-5 are based on a post code analysis of EGI
‘availability data’. Where reference was made to more than one B-class activity for a given EGI
data point the consultants have assumed an even split of the total floorspace area (sqm).
7
Identified by Waverley Borough Council
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
11
Table 2-5 Vacant Floorspace by Employment Development Site (sqm)
Office
B1a
(sqm)
Light /
General
Industrial
B1c/B2
(sqm)
8
Warehouse /
Storage &
Total
Distribution (sqm)
(B8) (sqm)
No.
Site Name
Settlement
Designation in
Local Plan
(2002)
5
Weyside Park
Godalming
IC2
1,641
0
0
1,641
8
Surrey Place / Courtyard
House
Godalming
IC2
246
0
0
246
13
St Georges Yard
Farnham
Not designated
40
0
0
40
17
St James House
Farnham
Not designated
317
0
0
317
27
Farnham
IC2
184
184
184
552
30
Estate
Farnham
IC2
176
176
176
528
31
Riverside Business Park
Farnham
IC2
32
156
32
221
40
Farnham
IC2
-
470
0
470
41
Farnham
IC2
149
149
149
448
55
Cranleigh
IC2
66
66
66
199
56
Haslemere
IC2
71
71
71
214
59
Elm House
Godalming
IC2
29
0
0
29
61
Farnham
IC2
644
131
131
906
71
Highfield
Godalming
Not designated
762
0
0
762
76
Network House
Godalming
Not designated
377
0
0
377
92
House
Godalming
IC2
162
162
162
485
110
Guildford Road Trading
Estate
Farnham
IC2
149
149
149
448
114
Stonebridge House
Godalming
Not designated
165
0
0
165
120
Bridge House
Farnham
Not designated
1,248
0
0
1,248
121
Victoria House
Farnham
Not designated
182
0
0
182
124
The Court Yard
Farnham
Not designated
198
0
0
198
136
Dunsfold Park
Dunsfold
Not designated
2,780
2,780
2,780
8,341
150
Alfold Business Centre
Alfold
Not designated
199
0
0
199
9,819
4,495
3,901
18,215
Total
Source: Atkins based on EGI data
Commercial development pipeline
2.20.
8
Within Waverley Borough there are valid as yet unimplemented B-class planning permissions
which would result in a total net loss of 15,561 sqm of B-class floorspace. A net loss was identified
for office (B1), industrial (B2), while a net gain has been identified for warehousing (B8) and office
(B1a), as shown in Table 2.6.
Identified by Waverley Borough Council
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
12
Table 2-6 Summary of B-class Floorspace Unimplemented Permissions
Use Class
Proposed
(sqm)
Proposed Loss of Bclass floorspace (sqm)
Net (sqm)
Office (B1)
3,235
- 11,634
- 8,399
0
- 5,020
- 5,020
1,476
0
1,476
0
- 3,618
- 3,618
4,711
- 20,272
- 15,561
Industrial (B2)
Warehousing (B8)
Office / Warehousing (B1/B8)
Total
Source: Waverley monitoring data (June 2011- August 2013)
Evaluation of surveyed designated employment development sites
2.21.
The site assessment of 67 designated employment development sites has been undertaken in
accordance with the key criteria set out in the NPPG.
2.22.
The site assessments considered the following factors and characteristics and the results are
summarised in Appendix B:




2.23.
2.24.
Location & existing planning designations
Property Appraisal - size, type, age and condition of premises
Access and parking
Vacancy and scope for change.
The desk-top analysis and the site appraisals have identified vacant land with potential for
development and also land with opportunity for intensification as follows:
Vacant Land (short – medium term)
Within the existing employment areas there are some key vacant sites which can be developed
for employment uses. It is important to identify these opportunities as these areas are a potential
supply of employment land. Some 6.21 ha of vacant land in the existing employment areas was
identified using satellite photography and was verified on site in early June 2014, are set out in
Table 2-7.
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
13
Table 2-7
No.
Settlement
58
Weyburn
Works
Godalming
Vacant parcels in surveyed designated employment development sites
Vacant Parcel
55
Vacant Parcel Location
Vacant
Parcel
Area (Ha)
3.5 (whole
site is
derelict)
0.04
Cranleigh
Little
Mead
Industrial
Estate
91 Depot
Witley
Station
Wormley
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
0.64
14
No.
Settlement
Vacant Parcel
61
Coxbridge Farnham
Business
Park
Vacant Parcel Location
Vacant
Parcel
Area (Ha)
61 (north) =
0.16 ha
61 (south) =
0.32 ha
103 Old
Ewhurst
Ewhurst
Brickworks
1.51
Total
6.21
2.25.
Land with Scope for Intensification / Redevelopment (medium – long term)
Approximately 4.02 ha of land has been identified where sites with scope for intensification or
regeneration, as set out in Table 2-8.
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
15
Table 2-8
No.
Land with scope for intensification / redevelopment (medium – long term)
Land with Scope for intensification
Settlement
/ redevelopment
Land Parcel Location
Land
Parcel
Area
(ha)
0.12
48 – Unicorn
Trading
Estate
Haslemere
43 – Bourne
Mill Business
Park
Farnham
0.71
65 – Surrey
Saw Mills
Farnham
0.86
(whole
site)
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
16
Land with Scope for intensification
Settlement
/ redevelopment
No.
61 –
Coxbridge
Business
Park
Farnham
Land Parcel Location
Land
Parcel
Area
(ha)
61
(west) =
0.94 ha
61 (east)
= 1.19
ha
135 – The
Common
House
Garage
Dunsfold
Total
2.26.
2.27.
9
0.2
4.02
Dunsfold Park Opportunity (long term)
Dunsfold Park is a former Canadian World War Two Air Base. After the war the site was used by
the aerospace industry including by BAe for development of the Harrier jump jet. At its peak the
site employed 1,300 people. The majority of the site is made up of greenspace and old runways
which mean that, although the site covers a total area of 248 ha around 210 ha is previously
9
developed land. Part of the site is used for B class uses.
Dunsfold Park has approximately 130 business premises, with 85 permanent occupiers and
numerous temporary occupiers, the park employs around 700 people although a proportion of
these are lorry drivers so are not permanently based on-site. There is a good mix of occupiers on
the site carrying out light industrial manufacturing, storage and office uses. The park acts has a
cluster of high end automotive businesses, which are attracted by the secure nature of the site
and the large runway spaces that enable testing of vehicles, these businesses include designing,
testing and repair. There also a cluster of business related to the TV production including set and
costume design and there is also a BBC studio on site.
Refer to Site 136 Dunsfold Park in Appendix B.
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
17
2.28.
Dunsfold Park Ltd is considering strategic options for the redevelopment of the Aerodrome
although an application for a mixed-use development was refused in September 2008
(WA/2008/0788). The owners are actively promoting the site for a mix of housing, employment
and other uses.
2.29.
The promoters of the site have indicated that they are actively assessing three development
options comprising of: 1,800 homes, 2,600 homes and 3,400 homes. In each case additional B
class floorspace could be delivered. For 1,800 homes there could be 2,200 sqm of B1a/b, 4,500
B1c/B2 and 7,624 B8. For 2,600 homes there could be 9,440 B1a/b, 6,099 B1c/B2 and 7,624 B8
and for 3,400 homes there could be 12,000 B1a/b, 18,000 B1c/B2 and 7,624 B8 uses.
2.30.
Employment site boundary amendments
Amendments to designated employment site boundaries (as verified on site) are set out below in
Table 2-9:
Table 2-9
No
Settlement
114
Stonebridge
House
Godalming
8 Surrey
Place /
Courtyard
House
Proposed employment site boundary amendments
Designated employment
development site boundary area
(ha)
1.01ha
0.09 ha
0.09 ha
0.18 ha
Godalming
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Proposed employment site
boundary area (ha)
18
No
Settlement
122 - Borelli
Yard
Designated employment
development site boundary area
(ha)
Proposed employment site
boundary area (ha)
Farnham
0.54 ha
0.04 ha
Key messages
2.31.
Waverley Borough has approximately 264,000 sqm of B-class employment floorspace, 35% of
which is located within designated employment development sites. In terms of share of total stock
the majority is warehousing (B8) with a 42% share and office (B1a ) with a 33% share of total
stock.
2.32.
The level of vacancy within the Borough is around 11%, with the highest concentration by some
margin in office (B1a) with 7%. There are low levels of vacancy for industrial (B1c/B2) and
warehousing (B8) with a 2% share.
2.33.
The Borough has a number of potential sources that could bring forward new employment
floorspace, as follows:



Vacant Floorspace (EGI data) - This represents approximately 28,200 sqm of actively
marketed B-class employment space. This presents a source of supply, for the market to
function efficiently. There will always need to be flexibility and a range of choice in premises to
allow for movement of business and to allow business to expand or start up. This current
supply provides a vacancy level of around 6% which is considered to be a low level of
vacancy level for the Borough. This level of vacancy provides a lack of flexibility for market
churn.
Commercial Development Pipeline – Recent monitoring data supplied by Waverley Borough
Council identifies that there is valid but as yet unimplemented B use class planning
permissions, which would result in a net loss of approximately 15,600 sqm of B-class
floorspace.
Vacant land (short – medium term) – This represents approximately 6 ha of potential B-class
employment space. This presents a source of supply that could deliver 37,000 sqm of B-class
employment floorspace.
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
19

2.34.
Land with scope for intensification (medium – long term) – This represents approximately 4 ha
of potential B-class employment space. This presents a source of supply that could deliver
24,100 sqm of B-class employment floorspace.
Dunsfold Park Opportunity (long term) - The site covers some 248 hectares and consists mainly of
greenspace and old runways. The owners are actively promoting the site for a mix of housing,
employment and other uses. There are potentially three levels of housing growth that could be
delivered: 1,800 homes, 2,600 homes and 3,400 homes. In each case additional B class
floorspace could be delivered. For 1,800 homes there could be 2,200 sqm of B1a/b, 4,500
B1c/B2 and 7,624 B8. For 2,600 homes there could be 9,440 B1a/b, 6,099 B1c/B2 and 7,624 B8
and for 3,400 homes there could be 12,000 B1a/b, 18,000 B1c/B2 and 7,624 B8 uses.
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
20
3.
Analysis of local property market
Introduction
3.1.
This section provides an examination of Waverley’s market for B-class uses drawing upon the EGI
(Estates Gazette) commercial property database to identify ‘market signals’, such as vacancy
rates, stock and rental levels by location and property type. The following provides a summary of
our property market research; it provides detail on recent market activity across the Borough
according to the main property market indicators, including rents, investment deals and leasing
activity and discussions with local commercial agents.
Property market indicators
3.2.
10
The property market indicators that were analysed for Waverley include rents, investment deals
and leasing activity using the EGI market data and discussions with local commercial agents.
Comparisons were made against other key competing centres, including Guildford (Surrey),
Working (Surrey) and Alton (East Hampshire).
Office rents
3.3.
Typical monthly rents for office premises currently marketed, range from £65 - £300 per sqm with
an average of £170 per sqm. Higher quality offices such as new build, business park office space
and second hand grade A are attracting an average asking rent of £160 - £300 per sqm,
according to the EGI market data. Second hand B grade and new refurbished office space
typically had an average rent of £65 - £160 per sqm. Local commercial agents identified that good
quality office accommodation typically achieved rental values of £160 - £195 per sqm and older
office accommodation typically achieved around £110 - £130 per sqm depending on specifications
offered.
3.4.
There are variable rents between the towns. The largest range of rents are in Cranleigh, which
ranges from £85 - £275 and Farnham, which ranges from £65 - £300. Godalming ranges from
£130 - £300 and Haslemere ranges from £130 – £190, which is the town with least variance in
rental value.
3.5.
In comparison, Guildford achieved higher starting rents at £300 - £325 per sqm, while Working
achieved lower rents ranging £200 - £215 per sqm. In East Hampshire, Alton was achieving lower
rents between £75 - £160 per sqm. Taking into account local commercial agents price points and
current marketed properties the average office floorspace in Waverley was valued at £150 per
sqm, positioning the Borough below Guildford and Working but at a similar level to Alton (in East
Hampshire) in the market place. Waverley’s office market is relatively weak in comparison to
major centres’ of Guildford and Working.
Industrial rents
3.6.
EGI market data identified that typical monthly rents for industrial (B1c/B2 and B8) typically
ranged from £70 - £140 with an average of £90 per sqm. Local commercial agents identified that
good quality industrial premises typically achieved realistic rental values of £85 - £120 per sqm
and lower grade industrial space achieving £65-£85 per sqm.
3.7.
There are variable rents between the towns. The largest range of rents are in Farnham, which
ranges from £75 - £140. Cranleigh ranges from £85 - £95, Godalming ranges from £70 - £80 and
Haslemere ranges from £90 - £95, which is the town with least variance in rental value.
10
This includes analysis of key town areas of Cranleigh, Farnham, Haslemere and Godalming.
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
21
3.8.
Other competing neighbouring centres are achieving a variety of market rents. Alton (East
Hampshire) is achieving typically lower at between £55 and £75 per sqm, whilst Guildford has
much higher rents of between £85 - £130 per sqm.
3.9.
Taking into account local commercial agents price points and the current marketed properties the
average industrial floorspace in Waverley was valued at £85 per sqm, which is lower than
Guildford but higher than Alton.
3.10.
There is perceived to be a lack of new build developments catering for industrial uses, although
local commercial agents noted that some premises have been refurbished. The stakeholder
consultees identified that the Borough was suffering from ageing industrial stock, with several
locations considered to be coming to the end of their usable life e.g. Hewitts Industrial Estate.
Investment deals
3.11.
The volume of transactions across Waverley has been limited in recent years as occupiers
retrench in the recessionary conditions. There have been quite a few sale and investment
transactions in both office and industrial sectors in Waverley in 2012 – 2014, with ten sales for
11
industrial units and 12 sales recorded for office units. In general industrial (B1/B2/B8) most sales
transactions were for units of between 475 sqm and 610 sqm with price varying between
£275,000 and £340,000.
3.12.
There were a couple of transactions for warehouse / distribution uses over 6,875 sqm. In (B1a)
office sales most transactions were between 75 sqm to 325 sqm with transaction values varying
between £185,000 and £425,000 million. There were a couple of transactions for office premises
over 1,500 sqm according to EGi data.
3.13.
Taking into account local commercial agents price points and current marketed properties the
average office floorspace in Waverley was valued at £150 per sqm, positioning the Borough below
Guildford and Woking but at a similar level to Alton (in East Hampshire) in the market place.
Waverley’s office market is relatively weak in comparison to major centres’ of Guildford and
Woking with business parks achieving higher rents as a result of offering better quality and
providing consolidated services (e.g. broadband).
Leasing activity
3.14.
In comparison to investment deals, there has been a consistent stream of leasing activity in
Waverley, particularly for industrial space.
3.15.
New office leases in the Borough totalled 9,283 sqm between March 2012 and March 2014 (EGI).
On average the amount of floorspace leased was 166 sqm with a typical small-medium sized
premises between 50 sqm and 500 sqm.
11
General Industrial as per EGI classification included B1 use classes, which was assumed to be small support office space within the
industrial development
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
22
Figure 3-1
average rental
Total office floorspace leased by type (March 2012 - March 2014) and
10,000
170
9,000
165
8,000
160
7,000
155
6,000
5,000
150
4,000
145
3,000
140
2,000
135
1,000
-
130
(B1a) Office
Area (sq.m)
(B1b) Business Park Total
£ per sq.m
Source: Atkins based on EGI data, 2013/2014
3.16.
Figure 3-1 shows the total office floorspace leased by type and the average annual rental for the
period March 2012 to March 2014. Typically 86% of all office space leasing was for office
development (B1a), whilst the remaining 14% was in research / business parks (B1b use class).
Office space (B1a use class) leased at an average rental of £165 per sqm (depending on size and
location) while research / business parks (B1b use class) was leased at a lower average rent of
£145 per sqm. The average leased area per transaction for research / business parks was slightly
larger at 215 sqm, while regular office space was at an average floorspace of 165 sqm. Farnham
had 59% of transactions at an average floorspace size of 171 sqm, compared to 39% in
Godalming, although the average size of transactions in Godalming was larger at 235 sqm for the
same period.
3.17.
New industrial leases in Waverley have totalled 10,027 sqm of floorspace between March 2012
and March 2014, with an average premises floorspace of 327 sqm. Figure 3.2 shows the total
industrial floorspace leased by type and the average annual rental for the period March 2012 to
March 2014. Typically 22% of all leasing was in dedicated Industrial parks (B2 use classes) with
an average rental rate of £70 per sqm and around 78% in general industrial space (B1/B2/B8 use
classes)12 with an average rental rate of £83 per sqm. The floorspace per transaction for industrial
parks was similar with industrial parks (B2 use classes) achieving an average of 365 sqm and
industrial space (B1/B2/B8 use classes) achieving an average of 290 sqm. Farnham had 53% of
12
EGI classification for general industrial includes B1 uses classes which is assumed to small office to support industrial uses
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
23
transactions at an average floorspace size of 78 sqm, compared to 40% in Cranleigh, although
the average size of transactions in Cranleigh was larger at 285 sqm for the same period.
Figure 3-2 Total industrial floorspace leased by type (March 2012 – March 2014) and
average rental
9,000
85
8,000
80
7,000
6,000
75
5,000
4,000
70
3,000
2,000
65
1,000
-
60
(B2) Industrial Park
Area (sq.m)
(B1/B2/B8) General Industrial
£ per sq.m
3.18.
Figure 3-3 shows the total volume of B class employment floorspace leased across the four major
towns of Cranleigh, Godalming, Farnham and Haslemere.
3.19.
In the industrial market, Farnham has received the largest volume of floorspace leased (10,374
sqm), whilst Haslemere has received the least (432 sqm). In the office market, Farnham and
Cranleigh have achieved a similar volume of leased office floorspace, with 1,249 sqm and 1,163
sqm, respectively over the last two years.
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
24
Figure 3-3 Total B class employment floorspace premises leased by type (March 2012 –
March 2014) (sqm)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Cranleigh
Farnham
Industrial (B1/B2/8)
Godalming
Office (B1a/b)
Haslemere
Total
B-Class commercial property market
3.20.
Figure 3-4 shows the distribution of available B-class commercial floorspace by type against the
most recent asking price. The EGI data identifies that Waverley has over 57,361 sqm of actively
marketed B-class use employment vacant floorspace.
Figure 3-4
Availability of industrial and office floorspace against last quoted rental value
16000
180
14000
160
12000
140
120
10000
100
8000
80
6000
60
4000
40
2000
20
0
0
Light Industrial /
Business Units
Mixed Industrial - B1,
B2, B8
Area (sq.m)
Office
Serviced Office
(Average rent £ per sq.m)
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
25
3.21.
The majority of available B-class commercial floorspace is concentrated in mixed industrial
(B1/B2/B8) floor space (75%) which constituted 42,905 sqm, office floorspace (B1a) accounted for
24% of available floorspace, this equated to 13,650 sqm of floorspace and 56 sqm of serviced
office space. In contrast light industrial / business units (B1c use class) constituted 1% of the
market with around 750 sqm of floorspace. Almost all the available office and industrial
floorspace was distributed between Cranleigh around 32 units (63% total floorspace) and
Farnham around 62 units (22% of total floorspace).
3.22.
Figure 3-5 shows EGI data on current actively marketed office and industrial space by quality
against the most recent asking price. The quality of office and industrial space shows that 70% of
all actively marketed space is second-hand grade B, across 105 units (94% of total units). The
second hand Grade B stock was concentrated in mixed industrial (39 units) and office (66 units).
There were six actively market design and build property and only two new build properties. This
may lead to limit the choice of industrial and office space quality and development flexibility
options offered to future tenants looking to invest in the Borough.
Figure 3-5
Marketed industrial and office floorspace by quality and average rental (£ per sqm)
30,000
160
140
25,000
120
20,000
100
15,000
80
60
10,000
40
5,000
20
-
New - New Build
(existing)
New - New Build (under New - Refurb (existing)
construction)
Area (sq.m)
Second-hand (Retail)
Second-hand Grade B
Averaage Rent (£ per sq.m)
Office
3.23.
Waverley is not considered to be a prime office market, in contrast to destinations that are in
closer proximity to London, such as Guildford. Part of the reason for this is the constrained office
supply in terms of both quantity and quality which affects the attractiveness of the Borough,
especially for larger businesses. Waverley’s office market is considered to serve locally based
companies and is perceived by local commercial agents to be struggling to attract and retain
larger multinational corporations, e.g. relocation of the WWF.
3.24.
Local commercial agents in the area identified that leasing inquiries for office space tended to be
for smaller sized units between 140 - 185 sqm serving the needs of small local businesses. Car
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
26
parking facilities and / or good access to the railway station were considered to be important
factors in determining the desirability of office locations.
3.25.
The quality of office space was not raised as a key concern with most local commercial agents
agreeing that landlords were quite flexible on the requirements and rental rates offered to
businesses. Local commercial agents noted that whilst there was a lack of new office stock, some
of the premises have undergone refurbishment.
Industrial
3.26.
Local commercial agents consider that there is medium demand for B1c/B2 industrial units from
local businesses operating in the Borough. There is considered to be a lack of supply of suitable
B1c/B2 stock across the Borough. There is an insufficient supply of employment locations with
enough capacity to accommodate additional B1c/B2 industrial uses across the Borough. Local
commercial agents consider that additional sites need to be brought forward for B1c/B2 class
development, in order to accommodate SME’s.
3.27.
Local commercial agents identified that leasing inquiries for industrial space tended to be for units
between 185 and 200 sqm primarily from local businesses expanding within the area. Typically
demand was in light industrial space which was confirmed by the EGI market data reflecting a lack
of available properties in this category. Local commercial agents identified that locally businesses
are looking beyond Waverley towards East Hampshire, which is considered to have more
available industrial stock and flexibility to accommodate a range of B class uses.
Conclusion
3.28.
The volume of commercial investment transactions for employment premises (B use class) has
been fairly active given the recent recession with 22 transactions between 2012 and 2014. For the
same period there has been a consistent stream of leasing activity with102 recorded transactions
within the Borough, which indicates that key centres within Surrey may have been less affected
than other parts of the UK, due to its resilient local economy, and transport links with central
London. The transaction activity was particularly concentrated around Farnham.
3.29.
By comparing rent levels between Waverley and competing centres it has been possible to
position the Borough within the wider office market. In terms of office rents in Waverley, it is
positioned below Guildford and Working (Surrey) but at a similar level to Alton (in East
Hampshire) in the market place.
3.30.
Waverley’s industrial market is considered to be constrained by a lack of flexible industrial
premises that can accommodate SME’s. The number of leasing transactions was marginally
lower for industrial when compared to office space, however industrial and office achieved a
similar total of floorspace leased during 2012 to 2014. The reason being that perceived demand
for office and industrial space consisted of local businesses expanding to small-medium sized
units typically less than 2,000 sqm each. Local commercial agents confirmed that there was
minimal demand for larger office space, while most of the remaining demand was from smaller
local businesses around Waverley.
3.31.
The majority of actively marketed B-class commercial floorspace is concentrated in the industrial
market (B1, B2 & B8 use classes), which has a 78% share of the total stock with the rest in the
office market. Local commercial agents noted there was demand for light industrial business units
(B1c/B2 use classes) which was confirmed by EGI data that showed a lack of availability of
marketed space in this category.
3.32.
Analysis of EGI market data showed that 94% of the marketed B-class stock was second hand
grade-B, which may limit the options and flexibility offered to potential businesses looking to invest
in the Borough. Local commercial agents agreed that the flexibility of premises to accommodate a
1.0 | June 2014
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mix of uses (light industrial with supporting office uses) was a major decision criteria. In addition,
local commercial agents acknowledged that local businesses looking to expand were looking
beyond the Borough towards East Hampshire, which is considered to be offering better quality,
availability and location for light industrial B class premises.
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4.
Stakeholder consultation
Introduction
4.1.
This section summarises the key findings of the stakeholder consultation undertaken as part of
this study. A consultation event was held in Godalming in March 2014 to discuss local
employment land issues and to inform the findings of this study.
4.2.
The consultation event was attended by stakeholders representing Waverley Borough Council,
and local businesses and property agents active in the area. The purpose of the consultation
event was to capture local perspectives on Waverley’s economic growth prospects, challenges
and opportunities and their implications for the supply and demand for employment land and
premises.
4.3.
It should be noted that the consultation feedback discussed in this section reflects the views of the
stakeholders that attended the consultation event and does not necessarily coincide with the
views of Waverley Borough Council. The following represents a summary of the key issues raised
at the stakeholder consultation event.
Existing situation
4.4.
Stakeholders expressed their view that Waverley is suffering from ageing industrial stock, with
several locations considered to be coming to the end of their usable life (Hewitts Industrial Estate
was used as an example). Other competing neighbouring Boroughs, including Working, Horsham,
East Hampshire are considered to be offering better quality, availability and location of B class
premises.
4.5.
Transport congestion was identified as an important issue which is likely to intensify in the coming
years as more businesses relocate from the Borough and more residents have to travel further to
work. Furthermore, local businesses rely on employees that commute from the south as housing
is more affordable in the south and the coastal areas.
4.6.
The combination of the above factors is likely to put greater pressure on Waverley’s transport
network as well as those of neighbouring authorities including Woking, Weybridge and Guildford.
4.7.
Stakeholders expressed concern that some multinationals such as World Wildlife Fund have
relocated from the Borough and that the Borough does not appear to be attractive to larger
businesses.
Type of B-use class demand
4.8.
Stakeholders identified a clear lack of new B class development coming forward in recent years.
They suggested there is demand for new site allocations for B class uses on greenfield and
brownfield sites, particularly for a mix of uses, including B1a(office) and B1c / B2 (light and
general industrial).
4.9.
Current and future demand for premises is generated mainly by small and medium sized
enterprises (SME’s), including high-tech businesses. This demand is mostly for business units
between 140 sqm and 185 sqm. Increasing home-working trends are affecting the type of demand
for employment premises and this trend is likely to increase in the future.
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Policy issues
4.10.
It was suggested that planning policy could be developed that applies a mix of uses (e.g. similar to
housing policy H4). Stakeholders also said that greater clarity is required on the Council’s strategy
for business and economic development. As an example, Catteshall Lane is identified as a key
employment site, however housing and employment sites have both been allowed at this location.
4.11.
Stakeholders expressed the view that a ‘blanket’ protection policy covering existing employment
development sites is not suitable; instead protection policy should be applied more flexibly to
account for the co-existence of complimentary uses.
4.12.
It was also suggested that the projected employment growth in lower paid employment sectors is
likely to have implications for affordable housing supply and demand.
Opportunities and constraints for future growth
4.13.
Stakeholders identified the need to accommodate new employment as new residential
development comes forward to ensure that the economy remains balanced.
4.14.
Improving broadband (capacity and availability) is essential for businesses (particularly
businesses that rely on the use of the internet for their operations). Mobile phone coverage (which
impacts on the use of smartphones) was also identified as needing improvement.
4.15.
Business locations need to have good transport connections and while Waverley benefits from a
good location and good transport connectivity, traffic congestion remains a constraint to growth.
Access to public car parking was identified as being important for new commercial developments.
4.16.
The historic under provision of B2/B8 sites and the resultant lack of availability was considered to
constrain growth. Stakeholders thought that despite the decline in manufacturing, small scale
industrial premises are still required.
4.17.
In terms of future opportunities, Waverley has the opportunity to become a more businessorientated location, as it currently benefits from good strategic connections to the A3, the London
to Portsmouth railway line and proximity to the two main London airports (Gatwick and Heathrow).
Future growth in Waverley is likely to come from small and medium sized businesses, primarily in
B1 sectors including professional services and businesses related to the digital economy.
However Godalming has a very limited supply of employment premises for business start-ups.
4.18.
Any new employment sites need to have flexibility in order to be able to respond to future
business requirements. In the east of the Borough, Dunsfold Industrial Estate is a popular
location for businesses, but not all employers will be looking to be accommodated at this site.
The west of the Borough provides considerable opportunity but this depends on greenbelt land
release. More centrally, Haslemere is heavily constrained whereas Godalming provides more
opportunities but more clarity is required on sites, such as Catteshall lane.
Conclusions and implications
4.19.
Most of the views expressed at the consultation event are in line with the findings of the rest of the
analysis. Stakeholders said that most of the current demand for employment land and premises is
coming from small and medium sized B1 businesses and this is likely to continue in the future.
The Borough’s constrained employment land supply is affecting demand with a limited amount of
B class developments coming forward in recent years. Good quality infrastructure (including
transport and broadband) is important for retaining existing businesses and attracting new ones to
the Borough. Stakeholders also expressed the view that despite the decline in manufacturing,
small scale industrial premises are still required but demand is constrained by the limited supply.
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4.20.
The views expressed at the consultation workshop in combination with the findings of the property
market analysis presented in the previous chapter provide useful local insights. The volume of
commercial investment transactions and leasing activity for B use class premises over the period
2012-2014 suggest that Waverley along with key centres within Surrey have been less affected
than other parts of the UK by the recent recession. This indicates the Borough’s economy is well
placed to take advantage of the economic recovery but the limited supply of employment land and
premises and limited pipeline of future developments are likely to constrain the ability of existing
businesses to grow and the Borough’s ability to attract new investment.
4.21.
The lack of flexible B class premises that can accommodate SMEs is of particular importance
given the important role that SMEs play in the local economy. The implication of the above is that
if the Borough has aspirations for economic growth and employment creation, it needs a wider
variety of employment sites.
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5.
Future employment land
requirements
Introduction
5.1.
The following section assesses Waverley’s future employment growth prospects and the resulting
demand for employment land and premises by use class (B1a/b, B1c, B2 and B8). The analysis is
based on Experian’s September 2013 sector-level employment forecasts.
5.2.
It is noted that forecasts provide an indication of what might happen in terms of future employment
growth but are not definitive. It is difficult to predict future trends at any time but particularly so in
the current context of prolonged economic uncertainty. With this caveat in place, employment
forecasts do provide an indication of future economic trends and are a useful tool for informing
employment land policy.
Methodology
5.3.
Analysis in this section considers a range of future employment growth secenarios including a
scenario based on Experian’s sector-specific employment forecasts for Waverley over the period
to 2031, a higher growth scenario that assumes higher levels of growth in the B1c, B2 and B8 use
class sectors (primarily manufacturing and warehousing) and a trend-based scenario based on
historic employment growth trends.
5.4.
Employment sectors have been mapped to the core B1a/b (business), B1c (light industrial), B2
(general industrial) and B8 (storage and distribution) “employment” uses and job numbers have
been converted to floorspace and land demand by applying appropriate employment density and
plot ratio assumptions. The employment densities used are in line with the HCA’s Employment
Densities Guide 2nd Edition (2010) while the plot ratios used are the same as those used in the
previous Waverley Employment Land Review and Update and are in line with the ODPM’s
Employment Land Reviews: Guidance Note (2004). These employment density and plot ratio
assumptions are summarised in Table 5-1 below.
Table 5-1
Use Class
B1a/b
B1c
B2
B8
5.5.
Employment density and plot ratio assumptions
Employment Density
Plot Ratio
2
75%
2
40%
2
40%
2
50%
12m per FTE
47m per FTE
36m per FTE
70m per FTE
It should be noted that all figures presented in this Chapter have been rounded and therefore may
not completely add up.
Scenario 1: Experian based scenario
5.6.
Scenario 1 is based on the outputs of Experian’s employment forecasting model (released in
September 2013). Experian’s detailed local level forecasts are based on an integrated regional
sectoral model of the UK. The model is constructed on the basis that each UK region and each
sector of the economy is treated as an economic entity in its own right, for which forecasts can be
made using historic relationships between variables. In broad terms, the historical performance of
county economies is interpreted in terms of their share of the regional economy of which they are
1.0 | June 2014
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a part. In turn, the performance of local authority areas is based on their share of their
encompassing county. For each sector of the economy (38 categories), equations are produced
for output and employment that explain the observable relationship between these variables at the
local and regional level. A full description of Experian’s forecasting methodology is presented in
Appendix A.
According to Experian’s model, full time equivalent employment (FTE) across all sectors is
forecast to increase from 49,050 FTEs in 2013 to approximately 57,500 FTEs in 2031, an
increase of approximately 17%. The number of FTEs in B use class sectors is forecast to increase
from 23,600 in 2013 to 27,100 in 2031, an increase of approximately 15%. A summary of
Experian’s employment forecasts is presented in Table 5.2 below.
5.7.
Table 5-2
Waverley Employment Forecasts – Experian based scenario (full time
equivalent jobs)
2013
2016
2021
2026
2031
Change
2013-2031
18,280
19,020
20,180
20,940
21,780
3,500
B1c
790
810
800
780
760
-40
B2
1,250
1,220
1,100
1,020
930
-330
B8
3,300
3,410
3,510
3,570
3,610
320
Total B use
class
23,620
24,450
25,580
26,300
27,080
3,460
Total (all use
classes)
49,050
50,800
53,320
55,360
57,520
8,470
Use Class
B1a/b
Source: Experian, Atkins
5.8.
B1a/b employment in the Borough is expected to increase by 19.2% over the period to 2031 while
employment in B1c and B2 sectors is forecast to decline by 4.8% and 26.1% respectively. B8
employment is forecast to increase by 9.7%. The total number of B class jobs in the Borough is
forecast to increase by approximately 3,460 jobs (14.6%).
5.9.
Based on the above employment forecasts and the employment density and plot ratio
assumptions summarised in Table 5.3. Waverley’s floorspace and land requirements over the
period 2013-2031 are forecast to be as follows:
Table 5-3
Waverley B use class floorspace need (sqm) – Experian based scenario
2013
2016
2021
2026
2031
Change
2013-2031
B1a/b
219,300
228,200
242,100
251,200
261,400
42,000
B1c
37,300
38,100
37,600
36,600
35,500
-1,800
B2
45,100
43,800
39,600
36,700
33,400
-11,800
B8
230,700
238,400
245,600
249,600
253,000
22,300
Total floorspace
532,500
548,600
564,800
574,100
583,200
50,700
Use Class
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33
Table 5-4
Waverley B use class land need (ha) – Experian based scenario
Use Class
2013
2016
2021
2026
2031
Change
2013-2031
B1a/b
29.2
30.4
32.3
33.5
34.9
5.6
B1c
9.3
9.5
9.4
9.1
8.9
-0.5
B2
11.3
11.0
9.9
9.2
8.3
-2.9
B8
46.1
47.7
49.1
49.9
50.6
4.5
Total land
96.0
98.6
100.7
101.7
102.7
6.7
5.10.
According to the Experian based scenario scenario, B1a/b land demand will grow by 5.6ha
(19.2%) over the period 2013-2031 while need for B1c land will decline by 0.5ha (-4.8%). Demand
for B2 land is forecast to decline by 2.9ha (-26.1%) while demand for B8 land is forecast to
increase by 4.5ha (9.7%).
5.11.
The overall employment land need in the Borough is forecast to increase by 6.7ha (6.9%). This
however assumes that all surplus B1c and B2 land will be re-used to meet the growing need of
businesses in the B1a/b and B8 sectors. It is possible that some of the surplus B1c and B2 land
could be used to accommodate demand in B1a/b and B8 sectors (which are projected to grow)
but it is likely that some of the poorer quality industrial sites would not be fit to accommodate the
needs of B1a/b and B8 businesses.
5.12.
On top of this, an allowance should be made for any designated employment development sites
that could be lost to other uses over the assessment period. Taking the above into consideration,
the implications of Scenario 1 are that Waverley should plan for at least 10.1 ha (5.6 + 4.5) of new
employment land over the period 2013-2031.
Scenario 2: Higher growth scenario
5.13.
Scenario 2 follows a similar methodology to Scenario 1 but assumes a higher level of employment
growth than the Experian forecasts. This is based on the findings of the market review and
stakeholder consultation which both suggest that Waverley’s economic growth is constrained by
the limited supply of employment land and premises as well as other issues such as traffic
congestion and the availability of modern infrastructure.
5.14.
The above suggest Waverley has further economic growth potential and Scenario 2 tests the
employment land implications of achieving 50% higher growth (compared to Scenario 1) between
2013 and 2031. In essence, this scenario represents a more optimistic outlook on Waverley’s
economic growth prospects which could be achieved by addressing some of the Borough’s
current growth constraints.
5.15.
Based on the findings of Scenario 2, employment in B use class sectors is forecast to increase by
5,489 jobs over the period 2013-2031 compared to a growth of 3,456 jobs under Scenario 1
(Table 5.5).
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Table 5-5
Assumed employment growth 2013-2031 (FTEs) – Higher growth scenario
Change 2013-2031
(Scenario 1)
Change 2013-2031
(Scenario 2)
3,500
5,260
B1c
-40
-30
B2
-330
-220
B8
320
480
3,460
5,490
Use Class
B1a/b
Total floorspace
Source: Atkins
5.16.
Based on the above employment projections, Waverley’s employment land requirements over the
period 2013-2031 are forecast to increase by approximately 12.8ha (Table 5.6). This assumes
that all surplus B1c and B2 land (forecast to be approximately 2.3 ha) will be reused for B1a/b and
B8 purposes and that all currently available employment sites will remain in employment use with
no losses to other uses. Allowing for the above and for an element of flexibility, the implications of
Scenario 2 are that Waverley would require at least 15.1 ha of new employment land by 2031.
Table 5-6
Additional floorspace and land requirements – Higher growth scenario
Additional floorspace
requirements 2013-2031 (sqm)
Additional land
requirements 2013-2031 (ha)
B1a/b
63,100
8.4
B1c
-1,200
-0.3
B2
-7,900
-2.0
B8
33,400
6.7
Total floorspace
87,400
12.8
Use Class
Source: Atkins
Scenario 3: Trend based scenario
5.17.
Scenario 3 is a trend-based scenario based on Waverley’s historic job levels between 20002012. As Figure 1 illustrates, other than a notable drop from 60,000 jobs in 2003 to 55,000 jobs
in 2004, there were only relatively small changes in the Borough’s job numbers over the period
2000-2012. Overall, the median number of jobs was approximately 59,000 with job numbers
rising to no higher than 61,000 (in 2000 and 2011).
5.18.
Projecting these historic job numbers into the future, Waverley’s job numbers are expected to
stay within the 59,000 – 61,000 range over the period to 2031 and would therefore generate no
additional employment land requirements.
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Figure 1
Waverley jobs, 2000-2012
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: ONS
5.19.
Applying Experian’s sectoral breakdown proportions to the trend based projections, Waverley’s
employment projections are summarised in Table 5-7 below. B use class job numbers are
projected to increase marginally with most of the growth in B1a/b sectors counter balanced by
the decline in B1c, B2 and B8 sectors.
Table 5-7 Trend-based employment projections
2013
2016
2021
2026
2031
Change
2013-2031
18,020
18,410
18,610
18,910
18,930
910
B1c
780
790
740
700
660
-130
B2
1,240
1,180
1,010
920
810
-430
B8
3,250
3,300
3,240
3,220
3,140
-110
23,670
23,590
23,750
23,540
250
Use class
B1a/b
Total B use class
23,290
13
Source: Atkins (all figures are rounded)
5.20.
The only use class that is projected to generate growing demand is B1a/b which is projected to
need 11,000 sqm of additional floorspace by 2031. Due to the forecast decline in industrial and
warehousing employment numbers however, total employment floorspace need is projected to
decrease by approximately 18,000 sqm (Table 5-8).
5.21.
These floorspace requirements translate into an indicative need of 1 ha of additional B1a/b land.
This is likely to be covered by the surplus industrial and warehousing land, suggesting that there
13
Figures for 2013 are slightly different between Tables 5-2 and 5-7 as a result of rounding and different
sources being used.
1.0 | June 2014
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is no overall need for additional employment land allocations (Table 5-9). It should be noted
however that this is a purely quantitative assessment that assumes all existing employment sites
will remain in employment use over the period to 2031 and that any surplus B1c, B2 and B8 land
will be able to accommodate the growing demand for B1a/b uses.
Table 5-8 B use class floorspace need (sqm) – Scenario 3
2013
2016
2021
2026
2031
Change
2013-2031
B1a/b
216,200
220,900
223,300
226,900
227,200
11,000
B1c
36,800
36,900
34,600
33,000
30,900
-5,900
B2
44,500
42,400
36,500
33,100
29,000
-15,500
B8
227,400
230,800
226,500
225,400
219,900
-7,600
Total
floorspace
525,000
531,000
520,900
518,500
507,000
-18,000
Use class
Source: Atkins (all figures are rounded)
Table 5-9 B use class land need (ha) – Scenario 3
2013
2016
2021
2026
2031
Change
2013-2031
B1a/b
29
29
30
30
30
1
B1c
9
9
9
8
8
-1
B2
11
11
9
8
7
-4
B8
45
46
45
45
44
-1
Total land
95
95
93
92
89
-5
Use class
Source: Atkins (all figures are rounded and may not completely add up)
Conclusions
5.22.
The scenario testing undertaken in this chapter provides a range of future employment land
requirements ranging from a surplus of 5 ha (Scenario 3) to the need for 13 additional hectares
(Scenario 2). Experian’s base forecasts suggest a need for approximately 7 ha of additional land
over the period to 2031.
5.23.
A common theme across all three scenarios is the projected growth in B1a/b employment (and
therefore floorspace and land requirements) and the decline in B1c/B2. Under scenarios 1 and 2,
B8 employment and land requirements will also increase over the period to 2031.
5.24.
Which scenario is more likely to materialise will depend on a wide range of local and external
factors including the Borough’s economic development strategies and objectives (in terms of
targeted employment growth levels and attraction of new businesses) and national and
international economic conditions which affect economic performance at the local level.
5.25.
Given Waverley Council’s long-term policy of maintaining the character of its market towns and
the resulting constraints on significant levels of economic growth, it is considered that the
scenario that is more realistic and better aligned to the Council’s policies and aspirations is one
that lies between the Experian-based scenario and the Trend-based scenario. It is also aligned to
the EM3 LEP’s strategy which does not specifically target the Borough or towns within it for
economic growth, although it looks to support SMEs and the rural economy.
1.0 | June 2014
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5.26.
It is recommended that both Scenarios 1 and 3 are used as the basis for planning Waverley’s
future employment land policies but the findings of the higher growth scenario should also be
taken into consideration, emphasising the need for flexible policies and flexibility in site
designations so that the Borough is well placed to meet future requirements.
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6.
Future employment site supply
requirements
Introduction
6.1.
Chapters 3, 4 and 5 have highlighted the main issues facing Waverley in terms of current supply
and future demand for employment land and premises. This section assesses the suitability of
existing identified employment sites in Waverley to meet future business accommodation
requirements to 2031
6.2.
The process undertaken can be summarised as follows:



The amount of additional floorspace that needs to be provided in order to meet future
requirements has been identified. This yields an estimate of net land requirements to be
provided during the period to 2031 (Chapter 5);
The designated employment development sites have been evaluated in terms of their
suitability for future employment use (see below); and
Recommendations on amount of floorspace potentially available (see below).
Refining a future portfolio of employment sites
Future employment land requirements
6.3.
The implications of the above employment projections in terms of future employment floorspace
requirements are set out in Chapter 5. In the period to 2031, 3,460 additional B Use Class FTE
jobs are projected under the Experian based scenario, 300 under the Trend-based scenario and
5,180 under the Higher growth scenario.
6.4.
All scenarios project additional need for B1a/b employment floorspace in the period to 2031. In
gross terms, this ranges from 11,000 sqm under the Trend-Based Scenario, up to 42,000 sqm
under the Experian based scenario and 63,100 sqm under the Higher Growth Scenario.
6.5.
All scenarios project overall declines in demand for B1c & B2 employment floorspace in the
period to 2031. The decline in requirements for B1(c) and B2 range from -13,600 sqm under the
Experian based scenario to –20,400 sqm under the Higher growth scenario and -21,400 sqm
under the Trend-based scenario,
6.6.
The Experian-based and higher-growth scenarios project overall increases in demand for B8
employment floorspace in the period to 2031. This increase ranges from 22,300 sqm under the
Experian based scenario to 33,400 sqm under the Higher growth scenario. There is a decline in
B8 employment floorspace under the Trend-based scenario (-7,600 sqm).
6.7.
In order to meet employment land requirements to 2031, it is necessary to firstly identify
employment locations which have the physical potential to accommodate future growth. This has
been achieved through the ‘taking stock’ assessment, comprehensive site appraisals presented
in Chapter 2 and review of the local property market in Chapter 3.
Supply update
6.8.
In order to assess ways in which future demand can be met, we have examined a range of
potential sources of supply, which include:

Vacant B Class Floorspace (source: EGI);
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



6.9.
Employment Floorspace from Vacant Land in surveyed employment areas (short term);
Employment Floorspace from Intensification of Land in surveyed employment areas
(medium-long term);
Employment Floorspace from Intensification of Land in surveyed employment areas
(long term);
Commercial Development Pipeline.
Table 6.1 sets out a breakdown of potential employment floorspace. It should be noted that
vacant floorspace can only go a certain way in meeting the future needs for employment
floorspace as there will always need to be a degree of vacant floorspace in a properly functioning
market, and also the requirements for new floorspace are largely for B1(a) floorspace and B8
floorspace and therefore some of the vacant employment floorspace is not appropriate to meet
these needs. Future employment floorspace needs are also sensitive to the market need for
quality and location of premises.
Vacant land supply and land for intensification assumptions
6.10.
The amount of floorspace potentially available from vacant land at each of the employment sites
(identified through site appraisal surveys) has been estimated (refer to Table 6-1).
6.11.
With regard to opportunity land at the employment sites, the potential additional capacity arising
from redevelopment and / or intensification has been estimated by halving the above plot ratios
for each type in order to make an allowance for existing floorspace which is replaced during the
redevelopment process.
6.12.
Plot ratio relates total gross floor area to the area of the site, e.g. two storey building covering half
a site would have a plot ratio of 1:1 (equivalent to 100%). Table 6-1 shows that there is
potentially 59,900 sqm of floorspace that could be developed in surveyed employment areas on
vacant land and through intensification of existing employment areas.
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40
Table 6-1 Vacant Land and Land identified for Intensification / Redevelopment
Developable
Land (60%)
Area of Land
Floorspace (sqm)
Size of Land
Land
B1(a)/b
(ha)
(sqm)
Employment Floorspace from Vacant Land (short-medium term)
Site
B2 / B1(c)
B8
Total
58
3.5
35,000
21,000
6,300
4,200
10,500
21,000
55
0.04
400
240
72
48
120
240
91
0.64
6,400
3,840
1,152
768
1,920
3,840
61n
0.16
1600
960
288
192
480
960
61s
0.32
3,200
1,920
576
384
960
1,920
103
1.51
15100
9060
2718
1812
Sub
6.17
61,700
37,020
11,106
7404
Total
Employment Floorspace from Intensification of Land (medium – long term)
4530
9060
18,510
37,020
48
0.12
1,200
720
216
144
360
720
43
0.9
9,000
5,400
1,620
1,080
2,700
5,400
65
0.86
8,600
5,160
1,548
1,032
2,580
5,160
61w
0.94
9,400
5,640
1,692
1,128
2,820
5,640
61e
1.19
11,900
7,140
2,142
1,428
3,570
7,140
240
600
1,200
4,824
12,060
24,120
4,500
7,624
14,324
135
0.2
2,000
1,200
360
Sub
4.02
40,200
24,120
7,236
Total
Employment Floorspace from Intensification of Land (long term)
14
136
2,200
Commercial Development Pipeline
15
Total
- 10,208
-5,020
-333
-15,561
10,334
11,708
37,861
59,903
Source: Atkins
6.13.
Table 6-2 sets out the pipeline of potential B class employment floorspace. There is potentially
44,340 sqm of floorspace available from the various sources of supply. The majority of this
floorspace supply will be for B1c/B2 and B1a uses.
6.14.
Table 6-2 identifies the pipeline of potential B class employment jobs that could come forward
using the floorspace identified in Table 6-1 as the basis. The number of jobs is calculated using
average employment density assumptions (see chapter 5) and are summarised below:



6.15.
14
15
16
B1(a) (Offices) – 12
16
B2 and B1(c) (General Industrial) – 42
B8 (Storage and Distribution) – 70
Table 6-2 shows that the potential floorspace supply available in Waverley up to 2031, has the
potential to accommodate approximately 1,680 jobs.
Developers’ assumptions of delivering 1,800 homes, 2,200 sqm of B1a/b, 4,500 sqm of B1c/B2 and 7,624 sqm of B8
Assumes 50:50 split of floorspace for office/warehousing (B1/B8) category
Applies employment density assumption of 42, which is the average of 36 sqm (B1c) and 47 sqm B2.
1.0 | June 2014
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41
Table 6-2 B Class Employment Jobs (No.) - Supply 2013-2031
Area of Land
Developable
Land (60%)
Floorspace (sqm)
Size of
Land
B2 /
Site
Land
B1(a)/b
(sqm)
B1(c)
(ha)
Employment Floorspace from Vacant Land (short-medium term)
Employment (No.)
B8
Total
B1(a)/b
B2 /
B1(c)
B8
Total
525
100
150
775
58
3.5
35,000
21,000
6,300
4,200
10,500
21,000
55
0.04
400
240
72
48
120
240
6
1
2
9
91
0.64
6,400
3,840
1,152
768
1,920
3,840
96
18
27
142
61n
0.16
1600
960
288
192
480
960
24
5
7
35
61s
0.32
3,200
1,920
576
384
960
1,920
48
9
14
71
103
1.51
15100
9060
2718
1812
4530
9060
Sub
6.17
61,700
37,020
11,106
7404
18,510
37,020
Total
Employment Floorspace from Intensification of Land (medium – long term)
227
43
65
334
926
176
264
1,366
48
0.12
1,200
720
216
144
360
720
18
3
5
27
43
0.9
9,000
5,400
1,620
1,080
2,700
5,400
107
20
30
157
65
0.86
8,600
5,160
1,548
1,032
2,580
5,160
129
25
37
190
61w
0.94
9,400
5,640
1,692
1,128
2,820
5,640
141
27
40
208
61e
1.19
11,900
7,140
2,142
1,428
3,570
7,140
179
34
51
264
135
0.2
2,000
1,200
360
240
600
Sub
4.02
40,200
24,120
7,236
4,824
12,060
Total
Employment Floorspace from Intensification of Land (long term)
1,200
30
6
9
44
24,120
786
222
281
1,290
17
136
Commercial Development Pipeline
Total
2,200
4,500
7,624
14,324
183
107
109
399
10,208
-5,020
-333
-15,561
-851
-120
-5
-975
10,334
11,708
37,861
59,903
861
279
541
1,681
18
Source: Atkins - figures are rounded to the nearest whole number
Demand / supply balance
6.16.
For the market to function efficiently and to allow effectively for churn, choice and flexibility, it will
always be necessary for pipeline supply to be in excess of projected levels of future demand. In
simply planning for an amount of supply which matches future estimates of demand in
quantitative terms, the operation of the market will be distorted which would result in a significant
element of demand not being met. In allowing employment growth to materialise through new
development, a surplus in supply is required to ensure that actual demand can be met in terms of
location, type, timing, quality and size.
6.17.
Table 6-3 sets out the relationship between the estimated demand and supply of employment
floorspace in the Borough by type of floorspace. It takes the total supply identified in Table 6-1
from the outputs of the three scenarios (identified in Chapter 5). Whilst there is a significant
pipeline of potential industrial supply, there is a significant shortfall in the supply of office
floorspace (under the Experian based and Higher growth scenarios).
17
18
Developers’ assumptions of delivering 1,800 homes, 2,200 sqm of B1a/b, 4,500 sqm of B1c/B2 and 7,624 sqm of B8
Assumes 50:50 split of floorspace for office/warehousing (B1/B8) category
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Table 6-3 Supply/demand floorspace balance by 2031 (sqm)
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
Experian based
-31,700
25,300
15,600
9,200
Higher growth
-52,700
32,100
4,400
-16,200
-600
33,100
45,400
77,900
Trend based
Note: Negative values indicate shortfall, positive values indicate surplus
Source: Atkins
6.18.
Under the Experian based scenario, Waverley is projected to have a shortfall of some 31,700
sqm of B1a/b floorspace by 2031. The Borough is projected to have surplus B1c/B2 and B8
floorspace so there is potential to reuse some of the surplus industrial land to meet the growing
demand for office floorspace. However it is unlikely that the surplus industrial and warehousing
land will be able to meet the additional demand for office floorspace (because of factors such as
location, quality, layout etc).
6.19.
Under the higher growth scenario, Waverley is projected to have a shortfall of some 52,700 sqm
of B1a/b floorspace. Even assuming that all surplus industrial (B1c/B2) floorspace can be reused
for B1a/b, the Borough is still forecast to have a shortfall of some 16,200 sqm.
6.20.
Under the trend based scenario however, Waverley’s available supply of employment floorspace
is projected to be sufficient to meet the Borough’s needs over the period to 2031 for all B class
uses.
Office and R&D - B1a/b
6.21.
Demand for B1a/b floorspace is projected to outstrip supply under all three scenarios. Taking the
middle point between the Experian-based and Trend-based scenarios, Waverley is projected to
need some 16,000 sqm of additional B1a/b floorspace by 2031. Some of this could come from
the re-use of surplus B2 and B8 land but taking into account quality, location and accessibility
factors it is possible that some new B1a/b sites may need to be allocated over the planning
period in order to meet demand.
6.22.
Premises with potential for redevelopment or intensification in the designated employment
development sites are unlikely to come forward in the short-term as it requires current occupiers
to vacate the current premises before it can be redeveloped. For some of the vacant land
opportunities there may be a need for the Council to help facilitate land assembly to enable
development. These sites are also likely to have potential to accommodate B1 uses.
6.23.
Consequently, it is important not to assume that not all vacant floorspace can contribute to
meeting future elements of demand. It will be essential that planning policy encourages the
refurbishment and/or redevelopment of unsuitable or obsolete business floorspace in the
Borough. Planned and committed supply will not always be translated into the physical provision
of floorspace. In this context, it will be important to protect existing, viable employment areas and
not rely on potential supply that may not reach the market place.
6.24.
In planning for meeting future demand, it will be essential to ensure that supply can respond to
market needs in terms of the type of premises required. For example, the current undersupply of
office floorspace will need to be addressed and demonstrates the need to safeguard office
development, especially in the context of changes of Permitted Development Rights that facilitate
the conversion of office to residential uses.
6.25.
The scale of opportunities provides choice and flexibility in the range and type of locations.
However, the pace at which the Borough can accommodate growth is dependent on the process
of redevelopment and re-provision of suitable floorspace within development proposals and the
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43
capability of the market and financial institutions to support regeneration and the redevelopment
of premises.
Light industrial and industrial activities – B1(c)/B2
6.26.
Overall it is anticipated that industrial (B2) and light industrial (B1c) employment and associated
floorspace and land demand will decline over the plan period. Depending on the scenario, the
level of decline in demand ranges from 13,600 sqm to 21,400 sqm. On balance, this provides a
surplus of industrial space in the range of 25,300 sqm to 33,100 sqm.
6.27.
Through changes permitted under the Use Class Order 2013 (No.1101), B2 use class premises
(up to 500 sqm in size) may be converted to B1a/b or B8 through the market. The VOA data
identifies that 97% of total occupied B1c premises are below 500 sqm, whilst also 92% of total
occupied B2 premises are also below 500 sqm. This equates to 39,101 sqm of B1c use and
7,272 sqm of B2 use floorspace.
6.28.
Taking into account this potential the supply of opportunities for development this would meet the
future projected quantitative estimates of future demand for warehousing (B8) under the Higher
growth scenario. Some premises may be suitable for conversion for local business needs, given
that the average size of B8 premises in designated employment development sites is 269 sqm.
However, the conversion of these premises to B8 uses also relies on existing occupiers vacating
the premises, which may not come forward in the short-term. These factors will have an
important impact on the actual balance between future demand and supply.
Warehousing and storage uses – B8
6.29.
Waverley is projected to have sufficient B8 floorspace under all three scenarios. In fact, taking
the middle point between the Experian-based and Trend-based scenarios, Waverley is projected
to have a surplus of some 30,000 sqm B8 floorspace by 2031. The emphasis should therefore be
on the quality rather than quantity of warehousing / logistics sites. Good strategic transport
connections are of particular importance to B8 businesses so well located and accessible sites
that are well occupied should be safeguarded. Planned and committed supply will not always be
translated into the physical provision of floorspace. In this context, it will be important to protect
existing, viable employment areas and not rely on potential supply that may not reach the market
place.
6.30.
Any surplus B8 sites that are clearly not meeting business needs (this is usually reflected in
vacant premises and sites) should be considered for release to other uses. However, when
considering any surplus B8 land, it is important not to assume that all vacant floorspace can
contribute to meeting future elements of B1a/b demand.
6.31.
In planning for meeting future demand, it will be essential to ensure that supply can respond to
market needs in terms of the type of premises required. In addition, emerging employment land
supply policies and associated designations should provide sufficient choice and flexibility to
meet the varying needs of the market.
Conclusions
6.32.
Chapter 6 has identified the potential supply of B class floorspace that could be available in the
Borough up to 2031. The identified supply of floorspace comes from various sources including:
existing vacant employment premises; vacant land and redevelopment opportunities in surveyed
employment areas; unimplemented planning permissions for commercial development. The
potential supply is equivalent to approximately 60,000 sqm of employment floorspace and this
could potentially accommodate some 1,680, jobs.
1.0 | June 2014
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44
6.33.
The comparison of the potential supply of employment floorspace with the forecast demand
identified in Chapter 5 indicates the following:



6.34.
Office and R&D floorspace - the supply of potential opportunities identified in quantitative
terms is below the projected levels of demand under all three scenarios. Short term
opportunities are unlikely to be met through existing vacancies. In the longer term premises
with potential for redevelopment or intensification in the existing employment development
sites could come forward, although there may be a need for the Council to help facilitate land
assembly to enable development. Existing employment development sites will continue to
contribute to meeting the requirements of occupiers who require standalone employment
premises as well as managed workspace and other types of lower cost accommodation.
Light Industrial and Industrial floorspace – overall the demand for floorspace is anticipated to
decline, leading to a surplus of industrial land. Fit for purpose industrial sites should be
safeguarded to maintain a diverse range of business activities in the Borough while surplus
sites that are not fit for purpose should be considered for relase to alternative uses.
Warehousing and Storage – the identified supply of B8 land is projected to meet future need.
Surplus sites that are not likely to attract interest should be considered for release.
Under all scenarios, it will be important that the Borough provides accommodation that is flexible
and affordable and meets the needs of SMEs. Despite the anticipated decline in need for light
industrial and general industrial floorspace the existing employment development sites will
continue to play an important role in providing premises to meet the needs of existing industrial
occupiers, and to provide a reservoir of employment land to meet other identified employment
needs including B8 uses.
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7.
7.1.
Conclusions and policy implications
This section sets out our conclusions and recommendations for taking forward employment land
policies in Waverley.
Supply and demand balance
7.2.
The employment growth projections set out in Chapter 5 identify potential B class employment
growth of between 250 – 5,180 jobs over the period to 2031, with the Experian-based scenario
forecasting 3,460 additional FTE jobs. In all scenarios the job growth is anticipated to be largely in
B1 class jobs (office based jobs), whilst B1c and B2 jobs (light and general industrial and
manufacturing) are forecast to decline.
7.3.
For the purpose of land use planning it is important to convert the forecast jobs growth into
additional floorspace need. Given the forecast growth in jobs that will require B1a class
floorspace, the demand for B1a floorspace will range between 11,000 sqm and 63,100 sqm in the
period to 2031. All scenarios project overall declines in demand for B1c and B2 employment
floorspace ranging while the Experian-based and Higher growth scenarios project an overall
increase in demand for B8 employment floorspace.
7.4.
It is recommended that Wavereley Borough Council considers the findings of all three scenarios
when it develops its employment land policies. On balance, however, the more realistic scenario
is one that lies between the Experian-based and Trend based projections. It is therefore
recommended that both Scenarios 1 and 3 are used as the basis for planning Waverley’s future
employment land policies but the findings of the higher growth scenario should also be taken into
consideration, emphasising the need for flexible policies and flexibility in site designations so that
the Borough is well placed to meet future requirements.
7.5.
7.6.
7.7.
Vacant floorspace
There is currently a significant amount of vacant floorspace in the surveyed employment areas
and in smaller sites across the Borough, totalling some 28,200 sqm. This represents
approximately 11% of total floorspace. The vacant floorspace has a role to play in meeting some
of the future demand, but in any market there will be a need for a level of vacancy to allow for
movement of businesses to meet their needs. A normal level of vacancy in a buoyant market
could be considered to be between 7-10%. Therefore not all vacancy will be used to meet growth
needs. There will also be issues with the type and quality of some units not meeting the
requirements of businesses looking to move to the Borough or start up.
Commercial development pipeline
Another source of supply is the existing commercial development pipeline (sites that have
planning permission but have not been implemented). Although in terms of proposed B class use
floorspace, there is almost 4,700 sqm of floorspace in the pipeline, when the existing floorspace at
these sites is taken into account the net figure represents a decline of 15,600 sqm. As such this
source of floorspace does not have the potential to meet the future floorspace needs of the
Borough in quantitative terms.
Vacant land (short – medium term)
There are some short to medium term opportunities for new floorspace in the surveyed
employment areas, where there is a total of around 6 ha of vacant land, which could
accommodate a total of 37,000 sqm of new floorspace.
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7.8.
7.9.
Land with scope for intensification (medium – long term)
Approximately 4 ha of land which could accommodate potentially 24,100 sqm of net floorspace
could be realised if the surveyed employment areas were redeveloped to intensify the use.
However, these are medium to longer term opportunities as they will require land assembly and
significant investment.
Dunsfold Park opportunity (long term)
The site covers some 248 hectares and consists mainly of greenspace and old runways. The
owners are actively promoting the site for a mix of housing, employment and other uses. In each
case additional B class floorspace could be delivered. For 1,800 homes there could be 2,200 sqm
of B1a/b, 4,500 B1c/B2 and 7,624 B8. For 2,600 homes there could be 9,440 B1a/b, 6,099
B1c/B2 and 7,624 B8 and for 3,400 homes there could be 12,000 B1a/b, 18,000 B1c/B2 and
7,624 B8 uses
7.10.
Chapter 6 has quantified the potential from each of the above sources to assess what the
theoretical supply and demand balance in the Borough, might be, in terms of meeting both the
floorspace and job growth forecasts. This has shown that theoretically there is sufficient
floorspace either at present or planned to be developed, to meet the forecast needs for B1c/B2
floorspace needs. However, there is also likely to be a shortfall in the amount of floorspace to
meet the forecast needs for B1a/b floorspace (under the Experian-based and Higher growth
scenarios).
7.11.
It should be noted that the quantitative assessment reflects a level of uncertainty inherent in the
job forecasts and the supply of sites needs to provide for a choice of size, quality, type and
location of premises, and therefore aligning supply completely with demand. Providing a precise
match of sites and premises is not realistic accounting for the functioning of the market and not
the purpose of the exercise. However, balancing the supply and demand does allow the Council
to consider what policy approaches they will need to take forward to meet the future employment
needs in the Borough and to promote growth that responds to market signals.
7.12.
The key finding from this exercise is that the surveyed employment areas and smaller sites are
providing a significant reservoir of land and floorspace for SMEs and other types of businesses
that are not likely to be provided in the Borough’s opportunity areas. If the Borough is to continue
to cater for the ongoing needs of general industrial and light manufacturing businesses and to
meet some of the forecast need for more B8 floorspace, the Council should continue to retain
policy protection for both the employment areas and the smaller sites.
Policy implications
7.13.
Waverley’s employment land policies need to be aligned to the national policy context which
emphasises providing a supply of good quality employment sites to meet the needs of the
business community and supporting existing and growing sectors within the local economy.
7.14.
The National Planning Policy Framework sets out that local planning authorities should plan
positively and proactively to encourage sustainable economic growth. This should include
supporting existing business sectors, promoting high-value growth sectors (e.g. knowledge-based,
creative and high-tech industries) and adopting a flexible approach which takes account of the
potential for needs which cannot be anticipated or to allow for rapid changes in economic
circumstances.
7.15.
Ensuring a supply of good quality, well located employment sites is maintained will help to support
investment by existing business and growth in the local business base. Demand is likely to
continue to be driven by small and medium sized businesses, primarily operating in B1 sectors.
Experian’s forecasts show employment growth in B1a/b and B8 sectors but the results of the
1.0 | June 2014
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47
stakeholder consultation and market analysis suggest there is also demand for industrial uses
(primarily light industrial) which is currently constrained by the lack of supply.
7.16.
The NPPF requires local authorities to be responsive to market signals to ensure that there is
adequate provision of the right type of employment land to meet the needs of the business
communities. This study represents part of the evidence base to identify what the market requires
in terms of employment land needs. The Consultants recommend that in order to respond to
market signals the Council should do the following:




Undertake regular reviews of the employment land every 3-5 years as appropriate
Undertake surveys of businesses to understand local businesses needs and aspirations
this will require an appropriate sample size and will need to explore aspirations for
growth / expansion, perceptions of the suitability of the location, type, size and quality of
the premises.
Continue to carry out and monitor employment areas through regular annual or bi-annual
surveys, assessing quantity of occupied and vacant floorspace, but also assessing the
quality of the premises and wider site environment.
Consult regularly with local property agents to gain perspectives of local market
conditions.
7.17.
Waverley’s industrial market is currently constrained by a lack of flexible industrial premises that
can accommodate SME’s. However, it is important that Waverley provides a continuing supply of
land suitable for B2 and B8 uses as well as premises meeting the needs of businesses of all sizes
in order to maintain a healthy mix of business.
7.18.
The findings of the stakeholder consultation event and market analysis suggest that the limited
supply of employment land and premises and limited pipeline of future developments are likely to
constrain the ability of existing businesses to grow and the Borough’s ability to attract new
investment. At the same time, Experian’s employment forecasts suggest that the Borough is likely
to need between 6.7 ha (Experian-based scenario) and 10.0 ha (high growth scenario) of
additional employment land by 2031. Whilst a negative supply of -5.4 ha is required under the
trend based growth scenario.
7.19.
The above make a strong case for safeguarding good quality existing sites and exploring
opportunities to intensify economic activity on employment sites where appropriate (and without
affecting the character of Waverley’s market towns). The study’s recommendations are
summarised below:
 The Council needs to safeguard its good quality existing supply of employment land,
protecting sites that are fit for purpose (e.g. well-located and well-performing) and
redeveloping sites for continued employment use where improvements are necessary or
redevelopment at higher density is possible.
 Encourage intensification of uses within existing employment development site locations
where appropriate.
 Review vacancy levels across employment sites, identify any particular issues or
constraints affecting occupancy rates and devise a strategy for addressing these issues.
 Sites that are not fit for purpose and unlikely to meet future business needs should be
considered for release (e.g. for residential redevelopment to help meet the Borough’s
housing needs). Any release of employment land should not adversely affect the Borough’s
ability to meet the needs of local businesses.
 Define the wider Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA) and assess employment land
requirements at that level. This will assist the Borough in developing planning policy for
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48
employment needs that are a closer fit to the real economic market, and ensure that most
of the impacts of the policy area will be contained.
 The Council should work proactively with landowners and developers to bring forward new
employment land provision and the development or intensification of existing allocations. In
addition the report has identified a number of potential sources of supply including vacant
land, land with scope for intensification and the Dunsfold Park opportunity.
 The Council identifies 150 sites in employment use. The Local Plan (2002) identifies that of
this total, there are 51 designated employment areas are protected under Policy IC2 –
Safeguarding Suitably Located Industrial and Commercial Land. The remaining sites
should be reviewed and an employment designation should be applied in order to
safeguard the supply from future redevelopment for alternative uses.
 Ensure that the Borough provides a good variety of employment sites that meet the needs
of the local business base (primarily small and medium sized enterprises).
 The Council should keep monitoring the supply and demand for employment land and
premises and maintain flexible policies that will enable it to respond to future opportunities
for economic and business growth and investment when these arise.
Implementation
7.20.
To help meet the forecast the consultants recommend that there will be a need for a much more
proactive approach to economic development within the Council; the following provides
recommendations on potential implementation measures that could assist with this.
Guidance on the provision of B-Class floorspace within mixed use
schemes
7.21.
In order for the Council to maximise the economic development potential of sites within the
Borough we recommend that further planning guidance in the form of an SPD could provide a
clearer basis for applicants and the Council’s Development Management and economic team to
maximise the opportunities for employment generating floorspace within development proposals.
7.22.
Guidance is required on types of employment provision which can be accommodated:






7.23.
Maximising location potential
Occupier needs and requirements (Size and type of premises reflecting mix of sectors
and SMEs)
Configuration and design of premises.
Conversion and refurbishment projects
Fit out requirements
Management and disposal options
Illustrative worked examples could show how to assess the level of B-Class provision which can
be accommodated in different market locations accounting for market viability issues.
Monitoring
7.24.
This study has provided further evidence that can be used in support of the Borough’s
employment land policies; this will need to be updated on a periodic basis to ensure that the
Council is responding appropriately to market signals.
7.25.
The Council could carry out regular surveys of the employment areas (every two years) which
provides useful information on the quantity of B class floorspace. However, the Council should
ensure that the information collected is shared widely within the Council in particular with those
1.0 | June 2014
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49
officers that are responsible for economic development. This would help the Council develop a
more proactive approach to planning for employment land and supporting economic
development.
Further sector based analysis
7.26.
The Council should undertake analysis of IDBR data at an individual premises level. This would
provide the opportunity to provide detailed analysis of the business base, including emerging
clusters of firms. This would also enable detailed analysis of employment densities by sector,
premises and location which the Council could use when scrutinising planning applications.
Funding
7.27.
A proposed growth fund could be used to support improvements in access/branding/signage
improvements – possibly utilising CIL/Business rates retention from premises (area by area
basis).
An investment fund for B-Class premises development/management represents another
opportunity. There is potential for the Council to consider a joint venture approach with private
sector development sector partner.
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50
A.1. Experian forecasting methodology
Introduction
Experian’s Regional Planning Service methodology is based on a top-down approach to regional
forecasting; therefore views on the UK economy form the basis of the regional view. The UK as a
whole is modelled on the basis of relationships at the national level.
The starting point for the forecasts is a wide range of historical economic data that is collected at a
highly disaggregated level and covers all the major economic indicators. The majority of this data
come from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Data also come from a number of other
sources including the Labour Force Survey, the CBI’s survey of manufacturing industries, and the
European Commission’s survey of consumer confidence.
These data describe the historical performance of the UK economy and its constituent regions.
After ensuring consistency between data from different sources and vintages, equations are
constructed to represent the historical relationships between the several indicators. Each equation
explains the performance of a particular indicator in terms of a number of other indicators. There
is an equation for all the major indicators, at the national and regional level.
The overall forecasting approach is based on a methodology that combines long-term supply and
demand influences with short-term demand side influences. In the short- to medium-term, the
performance of the UK and regional economies is driven by demand side influences. However,
supply potential is the long-term determinant of growth.
The model is used to produce an initial forecast which is evaluated by regional and sector experts
in light of their detailed knowledge. Alterations are made for significant pieces of inward
investment, or infrastructure development, or changes to European funding, in the form of ‘add
factors’. A new forecast is then produced, which is again subject to rigorous inspection. This
process continues until those ultimately responsible for the forecast are satisfied with the results.
Regional and local area forecasts
Experian’s Regional Sectoral Model (IRSM) of the UK is constructed on the basis that each UK
region and each sector of the economy is treated as an economic entity in its own right, for which
forecasts can be made using historic relationships between variables. These relationships differ
between regions and sectors on the basis of their differing economic structures, historic
performances and so on. At the same time, the UK as a whole is modelled on the basis of
relationships at the national level. By solving at both levels simultaneously, the model produces
forecasts that are entirely internally consistent. The forecasts position each region in a genuine
national and sectoral context and thus accurately reflect the economic dynamics of each region.
County and local/unitary authority area (LAD) forecasts are prepared once national and regional
forecasts are finalised. The key feature at this geographical level is that far fewer reliable
economic data are available. Experian make use of employment data, drawn from the Annual
Business Inquiry along with surveys such as the Labour Force Survey.
In broad terms, the historical performance of county economies is interpreted in terms of their
share of the regional economy of which they are a part. In turn, the performance of the LAD areas
is based on their share of their encompassing county. For each sector of the economy (30
categories, SIC92 definition), equations are produced for output and employment that explain the
observable relationship between these variables at the local and regional level.
1.0 | June 2014
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51
The models are solved to initially produce forecasts of output for each of the counties for each of
the 30 categories. In broad terms, if a county X has accounted for a steadily rising share of a
sector P in region Y, then its share will continue to increase into the future. This applies whether
the sector is increasing or decreasing in size at the regional level. These calculations are
executed for every sector and every county in a region. All county totals must sum to regional
totals. Output forecasts in each county in each industry are translated to employment by using
wider regional productivity trends. The process is then repeated to produce forecasts for local
areas relative to their wider counties.
Figure A.1 Experian sub-national model overview
Planning
Constraints
Migration
Demographics
Local schools/
college
performance
Qualifications
Employment
Industrial
Structure
GVA
Airport
Access
Productivity
The forecasts derived from the methodology set out above are entirely demand driven which,
evidence has shown, works particularly well over the short-to-medium term. Over the longer-term,
supply-side factors become more important in influencing the performance of economies.
These supply-side factors are incorporated in Experian’s long-term county model. These include
labour supply, labour force quality, infrastructure, population density and ethnic mix, which help
determine potential participation rates (the potential for people to be economically active for a
given employment rate), productivity and employment rates. Labour supply is shaped largely by
demographic developments, and these play a key role in long-term economic development. The
Experian county model combines official trends-based population projections with a policy based
adjustment based on housing development allocations as outlined in each of the regional spatial
strategies set out by Regional Assemblies.
The longer-term supply-side and short-to-medium demand-side models are drawn together, and
the whole process culminates with a set of county and sub-county level forecasts that are entirely
consistent with the national and regional forecasts upon which it is based.
Full-time equivalent employment definition
Starting in early 2012, Experian changed the definition of full-time equivalent employment used in
its forecasting model. Therefore, the Experian forecasts used for this update will not be entirely
consistent with those used in previous studies.
1.0 | June 2014
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52
The previous definition of Full-Time Equivalent employment (used in history and forecasts) was as
follows:
FTE = SELF + FULL + 0.4*PART
Where SELF, FULL and PART were self-employment, full-time employment and part-time
employment respectively. Effectively, this embodied two assumptions:
 Self-employed work full time
 Part time employment is 40% of full-time employment
These two assumptions are applied to all industries and regions. Each industry, region or industryregion pair uses its own definition of full-time employment.
The new definition is based on total hours worked and is as follows:
FTE = (HOURS)/(37.8*13)
The new FTE definition uses a constant yard-stick of full-time employment for all industries,
regions and industry-region based on thirteen working weeks in a quarter at 37.8 hours a week.
37.8 hours is the average hours worked by a full-time worker in the UK between 1990 and 2009.
The advantage of the new FTE definition is that the previously nebulous concept of full-time
worker has been replaced by a constant definition. This makes it easier to meaningfully compare
employment across industries and regions.
Further, it takes account of the fact that self-employed workers often either do not work full-time
or, alternatively, work longer than the typical full-time employee. In addition, although 40% is
approximately the ratio between full-time and part-time workers hours for the UK economy as a
whole, this varies between industries and regions.
This new definition also recognises the effects of short-time, layoffs and overtime, the amount of
which vary across the economic cycle.
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53
A.2. Summary Site Results
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
54
Site ID
Name
Town
Issues
Suitability for continued
employment use
Scope for change
No particular issues - 1
vacant unit.
Suited to continued
employment use - Small scale
good quality employment site
well occupied and located
within village centre.
No Scope for change - site
fully built out and likely to
remain as it is for the
foreseeable future.
Some vacant floorspace
but not considered to be at
a level that would be a
concern.
Suited to continued
employment use - Purpose built
office park, good quality well
landscaped and adequate
parking etc, good access to the
strategic road network.
No scope for change - site
fully built out and no real
opportunities for expansion
or redevelopment.
2.20
No particular issues site
fully occupied.
Suited to continued
employment use - Good quality
purpose built Office campus
premises with landscaping and
parking etc. Edge of town
location but fairly close to
station and town centre.
No Scope for change - site
foreseeable future.
0.70
Appears to be fully
occupied. Premises in
good condition.
Suited to continued
employment use - office
complex located close to town
centre and station. With mix of
new purpose built offices and
converted mill buildings.
No scope for change - site is
foreseeable future.
Suited to continued
employment use - office
campus park, well landscaped,
very close to town centre and
station.
Short term scope for change
- site fully built out, but given
prior notification notice on
Craven house there is likely
to be a loss of office
floorspace to residential.
Mountain House is occupied
at present, but if the
occupiers vacate the offices
could be converted.
Size
1
Bramley Business Centre
Bramley
0.52
4
Expedier House
Hindhead
Site redeveloped for housing
5
6
9
Weyside Park
Westbrook Mills
Mill Pool House / The Old Mill /
Rover Court
Godalming
Godalming
Godalming
3.18
10
Mountain House / Craven
House
Godalming
0.67
Craven house is vacant
and prior notification notice
at the site indicates that it
is likely to be converted to
residential.
11
Smithbrook Kilns
Cranleigh
2.35
Mostly used for retail but
some offices above, and
workshop use
Suitable for continued use as
mixed use site including some
office and workshop use.
Some scope for expansion
of site, but given isolated
location, unlikely to be
suitable
19
Lion & Lamb Yard
Farnham
0.57
Site is mainly used for
retails with some office
Site is used for retail not B
employment uses
Site is used for retail not B
employment uses
Site ID
Name
Town
Size
employment use
Scope for change
Units along East Street
frontage are used for retail
Suited to continued
employment use - Modern B1c /
B8 units. Fully occupied
foreseeable future.
Long term scope for change
- site occupied, but in the
long term the site could be
redeveloped to provide a
more intense form of mixed
use including employment.
Issues
above ground floor.
27
Farnham
28
Romans Industrial Park
Farnham
0.50
Units along East Street
frontage are used for retail
Suited to continued use offices above retail, close to
town centre and strategic road
network. Office accommodation
likely to be fair condition.
29
Farnham Business Centre
Farnham
29.00
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - modern
small light industrial park. Units
in good condition.
fully built out and occupied
and likely to remain as it is
for foreseeable future.
30
Estate
0.59
1 vacant unit
Suited to continued
small light industrial park. Units
in good condition.
0.91
Some vacant floorspace,
but not considered an
issue as in good condition
and should be able to re
let.
suited to continued employment
use - modern office park with
landscaping and parking. Close
to town centre and good access
to strategic road network.
fully built out and mostly
occupied and likely to
remain as it is for
foreseeable future.
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
office park with landscaping
and parking. Close to town
centre and good access to
32
33
Millennium Centre
Headway House
Farnham
Farnham
Farnham
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August 2014
0.86
0.65
56
Site ID
34
36
38
39
40
41
Name
Astra Works
Jewson Ltd
Abbey Business Park
Farnham Business Park
Town
Cranleigh
Cranleigh
Farnham
Farnham
Farnham
Farnham
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August 2014
Size
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
0.50
Occupied in fair condition.
Access for larger vehicles
off Guildford Road could
be an issue
Suited to continued
employment use - single
occupier industrial unit in fair
condition
0.79
Occupied by Jewsons in
fair condition
Suited to continued
employment use - single
occupier building yard / trade
counter in fair condition
3 or 4 small vacant units
advertised
Suited to continued
employment use - good quality
purpose built rural business
park.
No scope for change - the
site could be expanded to
the east of site but given the
rural location of the site, it is
likely not to be suited to
expansion.
Some vacant floorspace
advertised
Suited to continued
business park, well laid out and
landscaped. Good access to
the strategic road network.
fully built out and well
occupied, likely to remain as
it is for the foreseeable
future.
2 units to let
Suited to continued
employment use - Good quality
two storey B1 / B8 units.
Landscaped and sufficient
parking and servicing. Well
located for strategic road
network.
site is fully built and well
occupied, it is likely to
foreseeable future.
1 vacant unit
Suited to continued
industrial park with a mix of unit
sizes and types.
future.
1.39
1.90
0.52
9.71
57
Site ID
42
43
44
46
48
Name
Monkton Park
Bourne Mill Business Park
Grovebell Industrial Estate
Hewitts Industrial Estate
Unicorn Trading Estate
Town
Farnham
Farnham
Farnham
Cranleigh
Haslemere
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - small
purpose built managed estate.
Fully let and in good condition,
landscaped with adequate
access and parking.
future.
Occupied but some units in
poor condition
Suited to continued
employment use - front of site is
poor quality, but well used for
car sales, car washing and
vehicle sale. Units to rear are in
good condition and modern
units, fully occupied with
adequate parking and servicing.
Well located for strategic road
network.
Medium term scope for
change - site could be
partially redeveloped to
intensify use. The existing
units are of poor quality and
currently used for sui generis
uses.
0.99
1 new unit under
construction
Suited to continued
employment use - site well
occupied and good access to
strategic road network. Units in
good condition / fair condition
built out with new units
under construction, it is well
occupied and likely to
remain as it is in foreseeable
future.
3.00
Some vacancy - units not
in good condition so
reoccupation may prove
difficult
Suited to continued
employment use - site is well
laid out and access and
servicing is reasonable. Access
to the B1230 is good. However
some of the units are in poor
condition.
change - site could be
redeveloped to provide
modern industrial units in the
medium term.
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - well
occupied and fair to good
condition site. Located close to
station and centre of
Haslemere.
- area used for open storage
of containers, could be
redeveloped for more
intensive use.
Size
1.01
1.31
0.74
58
Site ID
50
52
54
55
56
57
Name
Kings Road Industrial Estate
Preymead Industrial Estate
Fisher Lane Factory
Whitesales Rooflights
Town
Haslemere
Farnham
Chiddingfold
Cranleigh
Haslemere
Cranleigh
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
1.37
Fully occupied. Access
could be an issue.
Suited to continued
condition site. Mix of unit sizes
and ages. Located close to the
centre of Haslemere.
0.53
Fully occupied. Access for
small vehicles only,
servicing within site is
difficult.
Suited to continued
employment use - occupied
mostly for open storage of
vehicles, and vehicle repairs. In
fair condition.
fully occupied and appears
suited to occupier needs,
likely to remain as it is for
foreseeable future.
0.88
Site fully occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - site is in
good condition, it is isolated,
but performing a role providing
rural employment opportunities.
occupied, and likely to
foreseeable future. Given
rural location expansion or
intensification of use would
not be suitable.
2.11
Vacant cleared plot
available. Some vacant
floorspace. Access and
turning for large vehicles
could be an issue.
Suited to continued
employment use - site has been
redeveloped over time so there
are a range of unit types and
styles, some are fairly. recently
and in good condition.
- vacant plot
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
condition site. Located close to
station and centre of
Haslemere.
foreseeable future.
Single occupier site - fully
occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - occupied by
a single occupier for storage
distribution and offices. In good
condition and fit for purpose.
fully built out and appears to
be meeting occupier needs
for the foreseeable future.
Size
1.79
0.64
59
Site ID
58
60
61
62
63
65
Name
Weyburn Works
Tanshire House / Oak house
Manfield Park
Moor Park House
Surrey Sawmills
Town
Godalming
Godalming
Farnham
Cranleigh
Farnham
Farnham
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
Derelict site
Suited to continued
employment use - isolated site
but adjacent to existing
business park, and reasonable
access to the A3.
- the site is derelict and
could be redeveloped for
employment uses
Well occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - isolated site
but high quality business park,
and reasonable access to the
A3.
fully built out likely to remain
as it is for the foreseeable
future.
Good site layout and
access. Good quality site.
Suited to continued
employment use - high quality
business park, and excellent
access to the strategic road
network.
- there are two vacant plots
to be developed. In the
medium term, the areas to
the eastern end of the site is
underutilised (used for open
storage) and could be
intensified, as is the area to
the west.
1.86
1 or 2 vacant units
Suited to continued
business park, edge of
Cranleigh good access to the
fully built and well occupied,
out likely to remain as it is
3.50
Could not gain access to
site as controlled gated
entry
Unclear if site is still used for B1
use - part of site has been
redeveloped for residential, the
Courtyard may also have been
converted to residential
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - meeting
current occupier needs.
Located on edge of Farnham
Size
3.50
1.29
8.70
0.86
60
change - the site could
redeveloped for more
intense use.
Site ID
67
69
88
91
92
Name
Godalming Business Park
Ashcombe Court
Coopers Place
Depot Witley Station
House
Town
Godalming
Godalming
Wormley
Wormley
Godalming
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August 2014
Size
0.80
0.82
1.65
0.64
0.92
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
Business centre. Centrally
located in Godalming, good
access to strategic road
network
No scope for change - fully
built out and well occupied.
Likely to remain as it is for
the foreseeable future.
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - fair / good
quality industrial site. Centrally
located in Godalming, good
network
Well occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - purpose built
industrial estate, located in
village of Wormley providing
rural employment opportunities,
units vary in age but all in good
condition.
Occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - located close
to station and in village. Site is
used mostly for open storage
and has portcabin
accommodation.
change - site is underutilised
and could be redeveloped
for more intensive B1c / or
B8 use.
Fully occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - Fair
condition, purpose built light
industrial units. Fully occupied.
Central location and good
network.
61
Site ID
Name
Town
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
Suited to continued
occupied and in good condition.
land that was previously
vacant is being built out for a
Sainsbury’s extension.
93
Langham Park
Godalming
1.79
Large part of site being
redeveloped as an
extension to Sainsbury’s.
Surrey Data park also
recently been constructed.
94
Anvil Park / Wurth House
Godalming
1.48
Site now residential
Site now developed for
residential
residential.
95
Cranleigh Brickworks
Cranleigh
19.98
Site occupied by single
occupier
Suited to continued
employment use - isolated rural
location, and buildings on site
are in poor condition.
No scope for change - likely
to remain as it for
foreseeable future.
96
Hogs Back Sandpit
Farnham
27.90
Sandpit in use
Site suited to continued
employment use - site is
occupied and used as a sandpit
site is likely to continue as it
is for the foreseeable future.
well occupied some vacant
floorspace
Suited to continued
employment use - Units all in
fair condition. Centrally located
in Godalming, good access to
Long term scope for change
- the site is well occupied
and some units are newer,
but there are some units that
are older and in a few years
may be in need of
redevelopment to upgrade
Site occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - Site is
located just outside
Camelsdale, but it is
inaccessible to the strategic
road network, and offering local
employment opportunities.
fully occupied and appears
suited to occupier needs,
foreseeable future.
97
98
Woodside Park Industrial
Estate
Coombers Ltd (Sawmills)
Godalming
Haslemere
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Size
2.08
0.89
62
Site ID
99
101
102
Name
Chiddingfold Storage Depot
Longdene House
Mullard Space Science
Laboratory
Town
Dunsfold
Haslemere
Ewhurst
2.78
1.47
13.69
employment use
Scope for change
Suited to continued
employment use - site is suited
to continued use for storage.
Located remotely but
No scope for change - there
is some undeveloped land
on the site however this is
area is wooded and may not
be suitable for further
development (due to policy
constraints). Site is likely to
foreseeable future.
Suitable for its existing use Offices in converted property
although out of town and
access limited.
- this is related to potential
conversion back to
residential via PD. There is
no scope to intensify use of
the site as this is not
considered appropriate in
this location.
Secured site, access not
available but appears to be
entirely occupied by UCL
space science lab
Suited to continued
employment use - site is
occupied and appears to be
meeting the specific needs of
the current occupiers.
occupied and although there
is space within the site for
more buildings the need for
this would be driven by the
current occupier, and would
be dependent on meeting
any policy constraints.
Part of the site is occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - part of the
site is used for car breakers,
although the quality of the site
is poor.
Short / medium term scope
for change - the part of the
site that accommodated the
brickworks is derelict.
Issues
Occupied
Not clear if any vacancy.
Access is limited
103
Old Ewhurst Brickworks
Ewhurst
4.63
109
6a Wrecclesham Road
Farnham
Site redeveloped for housing
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Size
63
Site ID
Name
Town
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
110
Guildford Road Trading Estate
Farnham
1.44
1 vacant unit
Suited to continued
employment use - Units all in
fair / good condition. Good
access and parking, good
network.
111
Swallow Tiles Ltd
Cranleigh
0.88
Site now residential
residential
residential.
Site occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - occupied by
builders merchants, well
located on strategic road
network.
fully built out and occupied.
foreseeable future.
1 vacant unit
Suited to continued
occupied converted premises
No scope for change Stonebridge house is well
occupied. Other surrounding
land uses (including
residential and health
centre) limit future scope on
site.
0.95
Fully Occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - site is used
as a Council recycling centre
and is suited to continued use
for this purpose
occupied by council
recycling centre and likely to
remain as it is for
foreseeable future
0.54
Front of site is used for
retail predominantly.
Offices to rear.
Suited to continued
employment use - town centre
location suited to small scale
office use.
No scope for change although if units became
vacant and owner wanted to
convert to residential under
PD the buildings would be
suitable for conversion.
112
114
118
122
Jewsons
Stonebridge House
WBC Depot
Borelli Yard
Godalming
Godalming
Farnham
Farnham
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Size
0.76
0.1
64
No scope for change - well
occupied site, fully built out
Site ID
125
127
134
135
136
Name
Brokenbog
The Old Sand Pit
SCC Highways Depot
The Common House Garage
Dunsfold Park
Town
Churt
Farnham
Milford
Dunsfold
Dunsfold
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Size
2.38
0.91
0.91
0.70
39.43
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
Site occupied
Site is currently used for
storage and repair of bathroom
items. Items are stored in a
range of glasshouses and
sheds. Site is poor quality
employment site, given the
condition of buildings and the
location of the site which is very
isolated. Suited to current
occupier needs but suitability
for continued employment use
is questioned.
More suited to an
agricultural use
Single occupier
Suited to continued
employment use - site has a
single occupier supplying soil.
Good access to strategic road
network.
No scope for change- site
occupied by company and
foreseeable future
Single occupier
Suited to continued
employment use - used as
Council household recycling
centre
occupied as a HRC and
likely to remain in this use
Occupied.
Suited to continued
employment use - isolated
location but occupied and in
buildings in fair condition,
providing rural employment
opportunities.
No scope for change - there
is some undeveloped land
on the site however the site
is in an isolated location, so
more intense development
of the site is not likely to be
appropriate. Site is likely to
foreseeable future.
1 or 2 vacant units
Suited to continued
employment use - fair to good
quality premises, some
knowledge based industries
linked with university and some
start ups. Rural location.
- immediate opportunities for
infill development on vacant
plots within the existing part
of the site that is built up.
Scope for much larger
development as part of
mixed use redevelopment of
the wider site.
65
Site ID
138
142
146
148
149
Name
Gastonia Coaches
Catteshall Manor
Smithbrook Barns
Harvest Wood Products Ltd
Greenhills Rural Enterprise
Centre
Town
Cranleigh
Godalming
Bramley
Tilford
Tilford
1.0 | June 2014
August 2014
Issues
employment use
Scope for change
0.56
Occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - fully
occupied site in good condition.
Garage and car sales.
fully built out and occupied.
foreseeable future.
8.90
Converted manor appears occupied although
difficult to tell if fully
occupied. Access issues.
Suited to continued
employment use - converted
manor building used for offices.
Out of town location
Short term Scope for change
- could potentially converted
B1 to C3 via PD. No scope
for change in terms of further
intensification of site, given
out of centre location and
access issues.
Some vacancy
Suited to continued
rural employment site.
fully built out, well occupied,
foreseeable future.
Site occupied single
occupier
Site is used for Sui generis
purposes. Suited to continued
use for timber products, but not
likely to be suited to a more
intense B class use given the
isolated location and access by
minor roads.
No scope for change - New
sheds being constructed.
Well occupied
Suited to continued
employment use - the site
provides good quality business
locations, but is very isolated
and access via minor roads. It
is suited to continued use but
further intensification of the site
would not be considered
appropriate.
No scope for change potential for expansion but
not considered appropriate
given isolated rural location
Size
0.90
2.23
2.00
66
Ilias Drivylas
Principal Economist
Euston Tower
286 Euston Road
London
NW1 3AT
ilias.drivylas@atkinsglobal.com
0203 2148 887
© Atkins Ltd except where stated otherwise.
The Atkins logo, ‘Carbon Critical Design’ and the strapline
‘Plan Design Enable’ are trademarks of Atkins Ltd.

Waverley Employment Land Review Update

Transcription

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