The Asian Strategy
Transcription
The Asian Strategy
The Asian Strategy July, 2012 This document contains forward-looking statements in regard to forecasts, targets and plans of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (“MUFG”) and its group companies (collectively, “the group”). These forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to the group and are stated here on the basis of the outlook at the time that this document was produced. In addition, in producing these statements certain assumptions (premises) have been utilized. These statements and assumptions (premises) are subjective and may prove to be incorrect and may not be realized in the future. Underlying such circumstances are a large number of risks and uncertainties. Please see other disclosure and public filings made or will be made by MUFG and the other companies comprising the group, including the latest kessantanshin, financial reports, Japanese securities reports and annual reports, for additional information regarding such risks and uncertainties. The group has no obligation or intent to update any forwardlooking statements contained in this document. In addition, information on companies and other entities outside the group that is recorded in this document has been obtained from publicly available information and other sources. The accuracy and appropriateness of that information has not been verified by the group and cannot be guaranteed. The financial information used in this document was prepared in accordance with accounting standards generally accepted in Japan, or Japanese GAAP. 2 Contents The Outline of Asia (1) Millenary Changes in GDP (AD1~2050) 5 (2) Changes from Asian Financial Crisis 6 (3) Shift in Demographics 7 (4) Overview of Japan’s Financial History 8 (5) Financial Markets in Major Countries in Asia 9 The Asian Strategy (1) Commitment to Asia Spanning Two Centuries 11 (2) Mid-Term Business Plan in Asia 12 (3) Targeted Countries / Region and Key Strategies 13 (4) Asian Strategy (i)~(iii) 14~16 Appendix (1) Global Network (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea) 18 (2) Global Network (South East Asia, India, Oceania) 19 (3) Overview of Recent Investments and Alliances in Asia 20 3 The Outline of Asia 4 Millenary Changes in GDP (AD1~2050) Asia was the economic center with more than half of the world GDP until the middle of the 19th century. The center has moved to Europe and the US since then, however, it is widely expected to return to Asia by the middle of the 21st century. Changes of Regional GDP Share (AD1~2050) 1841: Opium War 1858: Indian Revolt Asia Era Europe Era 100% 17% 75% 17% 22% 14% 3% 7% 3% 6% 29% 1% US Era 6% 45% 61% 61% 62% Asia Era 7% 7% 47% 39% 18% 31% 59% 70% 40% 20% 33% 50% 31% 40% 57% 1600 1700 Asia 1820 Americas 30% 52% 29% 27% 29% 33% 2000 2010 2015 20% 10% 0% 1500 60% 37% 18% 1000 80% 30% 2% 4% 37% 1 100% 7% 23% 12% 63% 5% 29% 32% 50% 25% 2008: Financial Crisis 90% 26% 24% 2% 4% 10% 11% 12% 1945: WWII 1870 1900 Europe 1950 2050 1 0% Middle East & Africa (Source) AD1~1950:Angus Maddison、2000~2015:IMF、2050:Asian Development Bank (Note) 1. Asia includes 5 Central Asia, 3 Caucasian countries and Iran only for 2050. 5 Changes from Asian Financial Crisis Current-account to GDP ratio and foreign exchange reserves of major countries in Asia have improved and increased while the external debt to GDP ratio has declined since the Asian financial crisis. The economic situation has improved significantly with higher resistance to economic crisis. Current-account to GDP ratio and Foreign Exchange Reserves of major countries in Asia Thailand Indonesia Vietnam -15% -15% External debt to GDP ratio 2010 0% 2010 0% Malaysia -15% -15% 0% 0% 15% 15% 15% 15% 30% 30% 30% 30% 45% 45% 45% 45% 60% 60% 60% 75% 75% 75% 90% 90% 90% 60% -7% 1997 0% 7% 14% -7% 1997 0% 7% 14% 2010 2010 1997 75% 1997 90% -7% 0% 7% 14% -7% 0% 7% 14% Current-account to GDP ratio China Korea -15% 2010 External debt to GDP ratio 0% 15% -15% 0% 0% 15% 1997 India -15% 2010 Philippines -15% 0% 2010 15% 1997 1997 30% 30% 30% 45% 45% 45% 45% 60% 60% 60% 60% 75% 75% 75% 75% 90% -7% 7% 14% -7% 0% 7% 14% -7% 2010 30% 90% 90% 0% 1997 15% 90% 0% 7% 14% -7% 0% 7% 14% Current-account to GDP ratio (Source) BTMU Economic Research Office Foreign exchange reserves / Imports 6 Shift in Demographics One of the factors of Asia’s economic growth is its demographic bonus where the working age population shows increase over the dependent population. Asia is expected to constantly have countries with demographic bonus and to maintain high growth. Ratio of Working Age to Dependent Population1 2.6 Chart East Asia 2.4 Rising Demographic bonus Declining Demographic onus Japan Europe Southeast Asia South Asia 2.2 North America 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (Source) UN (Note) 1.Working age: between 15 and 64, Dependent population: up to 14 and 65 or over 7 Overview of Japan’s Financial History Asia consists of various countries which vary in economic fundamentals, regulations, and financial development. It is essential to consider what and how each country is in making the strategies and business plans. History of Japanese banks, GDP growth rate, and GDP per capita (2010) Demographic Bonus Economy Oil Shock High Growth Demographic Onus Stable growth Bubble Low growth Korea $20,700 Taiwan $18,500 China's coastal areas $12,800 Malaysia $8,423 Philippines Cambodia Thailand India $2,123 China (avg.) $4,992 Myanmar$814 Vietnam $1,370 $1,173 $742 Indonesia $4,382 0 Big Bang 20% 15% GDP per capita (Japan/USD) 10% Real GDP growth rate *Shanghai in 2009 (National Bureau of Statistics of China) (Source) IMF and Cabinet Office $3 K < <$10 K $10 K < 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2001 2002 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1975 -5% 1976 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1967 1968 1966 1964 1963 1961 1962 1965 <$3 K 5% 0% $2,974 1960 GDP per capita $43,100 Lift a ban on financial holding companies Full liberalization of foreign exchange Financial System Reform Act $31,500 Full liberalization of deposit interest rate Report released by Japan-US Yen-Dollar Plaza Accord Hong Kong Lifting of a ban on mutual entry into bank, trust bank and securities 10,000 Liberalization of overseas capital transactions 20,000 Deregulation of domestic investments from foreign investors Tokyo Olympics 30,000 Osaka Expo Opening of Tomei and Meishin Expressway 40,000 Full revision of Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Singapore $30 K < 8 Financial Markets in Major Countries in Asia Diverse Asian countries are classified into three categories. As the degree of economic / financial development differs, expected financial needs and banking business also vary. Figure 1: Classification of Major Asian Countries (2010) Japan-dependent economies Thailand, 35% Self-sustaining economies 15% Taiwan, 23% Australia, 12% Trade with Japan2 12% Korea, 23% China, 7% 9% Philippines, 29% Indonesia, 10% Malaysia, 12% Vietnam, 23% Hong Kong, 2% 6% Degree of Japanese companies’ entry into the market3 Singapore, 10% Peripheral countries 3% India, 12% Myanmar, 1% Pakistan, 4% 0% -3% 3% 8% 13% Japan’s ODA1 18% 23% (Source) IMF and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan Figure 2: Stages of Financial Development by Economy Type GDP per capita Stage Banking business Self-sustaining economies Japan-dependent economies Peripheral countries USD 13,000 or more Under USD 8,000 Under USD 1,000 Growth - Maturity Development Dawn Advanced Advancement started Mainly deposits and loans (Note) 1. Japan’s cumulative ODA to the country divided by GDP of the country (2009) 2. Volume of trade with Japan divided by total trade of the country (2010) 3. Cumulative direct investment by Japan divided by the total direct investments to the country (2009) 9 The Asian Strategy Commitment to Asia Spanning Two Centuries BTMU's presence in Asian stretches back to the 19th century (as Yokohama Shokin Bank). Despite interruptions due to war and internal conflicts our commitment has continued through two centuries. A long-term relationship with Asia. Cambodia Representative office Branch Subsidiary 1956 Thailand 1936 1940 1945 Vietnam 1920 1962 1952 1942 1945 2012 1967 1962 1956 1993 1996 1975 Indonesia 19181919 19571959 Myanmar 19181919 Philippines 1945 19181919 1945 1954 1995 1984 1953 1977 Singapore 1916 1919 India 1894 1900 1941 19541957 1941 1953 China 1893 1890 1900 1900 1980 1945 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 2007 1995 1990 2000 2010 11 Mid-Term Business Plan in Asia Next stage in Asia business – to become a financial group with an increasing global presence Build a solid industry position as a No.1 foreign bank in Asia (outside Japan) by constantly upgrading the business model from the perspectives of business expansion and internal controls. Strategies EMEA Build a strong organization to address the accelerated business expansion of clients into Asia and tightening local regulations. Support office administration, assisting expansion of businesses in Asia. CrossRegional CrossRegional B Enhanced Office Functions Americas St re ng th en in g C Enhanced Office Functions Strengthening of Asian HQ Functions Strengthen cooperation within and beyond Asia to support companies expanding business globally. C Q B Unified Approach H A Content HQ Support A Regionally Unified Approach ASIA 12 Targeted Countries / Region and Key Strategies Targeted Countries / Region (Figures in 2010) Greater China (China, Taiwan and Hong Kong) India Indonesia Korea Self-sustaining economies (Stage of growth – maturity) Peripheral countries (Stage of dawn) Japan-dependent economies (Stage of development) Self-sustaining economies (Stage of growth) USD 4,000 (China) – USD 31,000 (HK) USD 1,000 USD 3,000 USD 20,000 1.37 billion (top in the world) 1.21 billion (second in the world) 0.24 billion (fourth in the world) 0.05 billion (twenty-fifth in the world) USD 6.6 trillion USD 1.6 trillion USD 0.7 trillion USD 1 trillion USD 1,021.0 billion USD 135.0 billion USD 61.0 billion USD 71.0 billion The remaining years of population bonus 5 years 30 years 15 years 0 years RORA (=pretax income / risk assets) Taiwan 0.7% - China 1.6% 1.6% 3.3% 1.3% USD 5.0billion USD 20.0billion USD 0.01billion USD 30.0billion Type GDP per capita Population GDP Revenue pool (2015E) Outstanding of securitization (2009) Key strategies Promote trade finance business by capturing trade flow of client companies. Capture RMB settlement business associated with trading / investments. Participation in primary and secondary bond markets business. (Source) UN, IMF etc. Expand settlement business Support collaboration for client companies focusing between client companies on domestic sales. focusing on domestic sales and local companies. Capture large infrastructure development deals and Promote trade finance investment deals. business, capturing company’s trade flow. Opening branches in areas favored by Japanese Consider moving into SMEs, companies. retail business. Strengthen marketing to global companies in Korea. Providing support for diverse financing needs including securitizations and overseas projects. 13 Asian Strategy (i) Solid increase in gross profits with both Japanese and non-Japanese. Growing in CIB and forex income in addition to loans income. Ensuring a good revenue balance in each region. Aiming to increase gross profits for FY14 by 50% from FY11. Gross profits1 Gross profits by regions By segment (¥bn) By product (¥bn) 100 100 80 80 38.1 33.4 60 16.2 60 31.0 28.8 11.0 40 12.0 20 32.7 39.0 44.6 4.2 50.7 14.0 14.1 10.9 40 12.2 13.4 12.6 12.8 11.9 6.2 23.4 25.2 FY10 H2 Non-Japanese FY11 H1 FY11 H2 Japanese India 10% Greater China 37% 9.0 28.7 34.7 ASEAN 38% 0 FY10 H1 Korea 8% 8.2 20 0 Oceania 7% 17.8 FY10 H1 FY10 H2 FY11 H1 Loans Fees and commissions CIB FY11 H2 Deposits Forex (Note) Exchange rates: Those adopted in business plan ($/¥=95, others) 1. Figures for gross profits are those from customer business 14 Asian Strategy (ii) Increased lending balance in each country through adopting strategy to the characteristics of each market. China Hong Kong (US$bn) Australia (US$bn) 14.5 15.0 15.0 12.7 10.3 10.0 6.8 6.5 7.6 6.9 15.0 Non-Japanese 6.0 6.7 Non-Japanese 0.0 End End End End Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Non-Japanese Japanese Japanese Non-Japanese 15.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 5.9 Japanese 6.8 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 End End End End Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Non-Japanese 7.8 Korea (US$bn) 5.5 7.5 End End End End Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 (US$bn) 4.8 6.5 0.0 Indonesia 7.0 4.3 6.2 End End End End Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Japanese (US$bn) 10.0 10.0 5.0 Thailand 15.0 9.1 8.5 0.0 End End End End Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Japanese (US$bn) 8.0 5.0 India 5.0 15.0 7.2 End End End End Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Non-Japanese (US$bn) 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 (US$bn) 11.3 5.0 5.0 Singapore Japanese 3.6 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.0 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.6 0.0 End End End End Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Non-Japanese Japanese End End End End Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Non-Japanese Japanese (Note) Loans outstanding on consolidated basis, counted by the nationality of each borrower for internal management purpose. Excl. financial institution. 15 Asian Strategy (iii) Upgrade the Asian business model and become established as the leading foreign bank. Improve products and services while strengthening marketing within and beyond the region through commercial bank/trust bank/securities cooperation; improve regional governance by bringing Head Office functions to the Asian front line. Greater China (China/HK/Taiwan) z Through steps such as obtaining a first foreign bank certification for each of new operations, such as issuing RMB bonds in China mainland, establish position as a first class foreign bank z Strengthen loan and settlement business, etc. by cooperating with branches (20 locations) within the region. Upgrade RMB-related business z Aim to expand network centered on China Comparison with foreign banks’ subsidiaries in China (2011) z No.2 in net business profits after HSBC among local branches of foreign banks1, as a result of close relationships with Korean corporations z Strengthen marketing and aim for core bank status, assisting Korean corporations with globalization. (Set up Global Korean Business Office) z Strengthen securitization, ECA finance, project finance and capital market business (Note) 1.Japanese banks: Apr 10 - Mar 11, other foreign banks: Jan 10 - Dec 10 Indonesia (¥bn) 120 114.1 80 57.7 43.0 40 Korea z Having opened the branch more than 40 years ago, solid business base centered on Japanese corporations. Top lender among foreign banks z Capture more infrastructure/resource finance and M&A projects. Strengthen business with financial institutions and syndicated loans z Strengthen local group synergies (CIMB, etc) 61.5 23.5 19.2 0 BTMU HSBC Citi Gross profit Net business profits Australia (Source) Company disclosures Exchange rates: RMB/¥=14.03 z Strengthen project finance and resource/ infrastructure-related loans to large non-Japanese organizations (Setting up the Perth branch to make 3 branches in Australia and Australian Structured Finance Office) z Alliance with AMP, one of the Australian “big 5” financial institutions India z Strengthen loan and cross-selling business to major non-Japanese corporations z Achieve critical mass in S&T business by bringing it under joint control with Global Markets z Further strengthening largest network of any Japanese bank by opening new branches (now 3 branches) 16 Appendix 17 Global Network (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea) China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea China Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (China) established in 2007. BTMU (China) operates a total of sixteen offices, eleven branches and five sub-branches. Headquartered in Shanghai, each BTMU (China) branch provides full banking services including foreign currency and RMB deposits, loans, remittances, trade settlement, and exchange. In addition, derivative transactions, internet banking, and information services are provided. Shenyang Beijing Korea Rep. office opened in 1966, a year after the restoration of diplomatic ties. First Japanese bank to open a branch in 1967. Dalian Tianjin Seoul Beijing First foreign bank rep. office opened in 1980; BTMU was the first foreign bank to upgrade Beijing rep. office to branch status (1995). First Japanese bank to open sub-branch in Beijing EconomicTechnological Development Area, a concentrated area for Western companies (2011). Covers North China, excluding Tianjin. Qingdao Shenyang First Japanese bank rep. office opened in 2005, upgraded to branch status in 2012. Collects and analyses information on Liaoning (excl. Dalian), Jilin, and Heilongjiang provinces. Tianjin First Japanese bank rep. office opened in 1987, upgraded to branch status in 1995. Tianjin Binhai Sub-branch opened in Binhai Finance Zone (2007) with a high concentration of Japanese companies. Chengdu Rep. office opened in 1995, upgraded to branch status in 2010 (sole Japanese bank branch in Western China). Wuxi Shanghai Wuhan Qingdao Branch opened in 2011. Covers Shandong Province. Chengdu Shenzhen Branch opened in 1986 (first Japanese bank to establish a branch in China). Guangzhou Rep. office opened in 1984, upgraded to branch status in 2008. First Japanese bank sub-branch opened in Guangzhou Nansha Development Zone (2010), a concentrated area for leading international companies (automobile, petrochemical, steel, IT). Hong Kong Over fifty years history with rep. office opened in 1952, becoming Hong Kong Branch in 1953. Three offices: Hong Kong and Kowloon branches, East Tsim Sha Tsui sub-branch. Supports business connections between Japanese and nonJapanese companies. The Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou branches jointly support customers in the South China region. Wuhan Branch opened in 2012. Covers Hubei and Hunan provinces. Taipei Shanghai Rep. office opened in 1982, upgraded to branch status in 1991, first among foreign banks. Sub-branch opened in Hongqiao (Western Shanghai) in 2011, a concentrated area for Japanese companies. Covers East China excluding Jiangsu Province. Wuxi First Japanese bank rep. office opened in 1997, upgraded to branch status in 2006. Covers Jiangsu Province. Shenzhen Guangzhou Kowloon Hong Kong Dalian Rep. office opened in 1984, upgraded to branch status in 1992. First foreign bank sub-branch opened in Dalian Economic & Technological Development Area in 2007, a concentrated area for Japanese companies. Subsidiary (incl. subsidiary’s branch, sub-branch) Branch, Sub-branch Taiwan Rep. office opened in 1990, became Taipei Branch in 1993. Supports business connections between Japanese and local companies. Representative Office 18 Global Network (South East Asia, India, Oceania) South East Asia, India, Oceania Pakistan Karachi Branch opened in 1953 (only Japanese bank office); has an over eighty year history through the former Yokohama Shokin Bank. Focusing on collection of information related to Japan’s ODA. New Delhi Bangladesh Dhaka Rep. Office opened in 1990 (only Japanese bank office). Focusing on collection of information related to Japan’s ODA. Myanmar Yangon Rep. Office opened in 1995. Maintains a nearly uninterrupted business history since the opening of the former Rangoon Rep. Office in 1954. Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City Branch opened in 1996, Hanoi Branch in 1998; has a long business history (including temporary closure) through the 1920 establishment of the former Yokohama Shokin Bank’s Saigon Branch. Through alliance with local bank, offers cash collection service using local bank networks. Karachi India Presence in India for more than fifty years: Mumbai Branch opened in 1953, New Delhi Branch in 1963, Chennai Branch in 1996. Covering all India through three branches; BTMU is the only Japanese bank with an office in South India. Japanese staff provide Indian market information from Mumbai Branch Sales & Trading Department. Australia Subsidiary opened in 1985. Covering entire country through a three office network in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Engages in investment banking business including Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) syndicated loans and securitization. Business alliance with investment promotion agency for Victoria state, Invest Victoria. Dhaka Mumbai Hanoi Yangon Bangkok Manila Phnom Penh Chennai Thailand Over fifty years history with rep. office opened in 1952, becoming Bangkok Branch in 1962. Retains BTMU Leasing(Thailand)Co., Ltd. which offers equipment and other leasing services. Business alliance with the Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI). Ho Chi Minh City Kuala Lumpur Labuan Singapore Jakarta Cambodia Opened rep. office in Phnom Penh in 2012. Surabaya Bandung Singapore Over fifty years history with rep. office opened in 1954, becoming Singapore Branch in 1957. Retains head office functions for Asian Business Division, Asian Investment Banking Division, eBusiness and IT Initiatives Division, Corporate Research Division, and more. Perth Sydney Auckland Melbourne New Zealand Rep. office opened in Wellington in 1972, moved to Auckland (only Japanese bank office) and acquired branch status in 1996. Subsidiary (incl. subsidiary’s branch, sub-branch) Branch, Sub-branch Philippines Rep. office opened in 1953, became Manila Branch in 1977; has an over ninety year history through the former Yokohama Shokin Bank. Business alliance with the Board of Investments, Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA). Malaysia Rep. office opened in 1957, upgraded to Kuala Lumpur Branch in 1959, became BTMU (Malaysia) in 1994. Handles Ringgit as a commercial bank (local subsidiary). Offers offshore financial services at Labuan Branch. Offers financial services including investment banking and Islamic finance. Penang Sub-branch opened in 2012. Indonesia Over fifty years history with rep. office opened in 1957, becoming Jakarta Branch in 1968. Nine offices: Jakarta Branch, Surabaya and Bandung sub-branches, six service points in industrial towns near Jakarta. Through alliance with local bank, offers cash collection service using local bank networks. Business alliance with the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). Representative office 19 Overview of Recent Investments and Alliances in Asia Pursued investments and alliances, focusing on high-quality Asian companies. Investments and alliances1 China Investment in and business alliance with Bank of China (BTMU, Jun 06) China Invest in asset management subsidiary of Shenyin & Wanguo Securities to make an equity method affiliate (MUTB, Apr 11) India Business alliance with ICICI (MUSHD, Aug 06), Tata Capital (MUSHD, Aug 08) Indonesia Investment in Bank Nusantara Parahyangan (BTMU, Dec 07) Vietnam Business alliance with Vietcombank (BTMU, Nov 06) Malaysia Business alliance with CIMB (BTMU, Oct 06), additional investment in CIMB (BTMU, Aug 11) Korea Business alliance with Daewoo Securities (MUSHD, Jan 07) Hong Kong Additional investment in Dah Sing Financial Holdings to make an equity method affiliate (BTMU, Jun 08), business alliance with Dah Sing Financial Holdings (BTMU, Sep 08) Australia Capital and business alliance with AMP Capital Holdings to make an equity method affiliate (MUTB, Mar 12) (Note) 1. As of End Mar 12 20