Glacier

Climate change, glacier retreat and water resources availability in
high mountain cities: case of Bolivia
Edson RAMIREZ Ph.D.
Institut of Hydraulics and Hydrology, San Andrés University (IHH-UMSA)
La Paz - Bolivia
Photo: E.Ramirez ©
Glaciers and Altitude Water Resources
Climate and Environmental Indicators
 The evolution of water resources
 The variability of the climate – hydrosphere – cryosphere in high
altitude regions
Past
1000 years
Present
Instrumental data
Future
Tropical Glaciers distribution in the world
5% of the world’s mountain glaciers
99% are concentrated in the Andes
70% in Perú, 20% in Bolivia, 10% in the rest
Location of the “Cordillera Real”
BOLIVIA
Amazon
Andes
Water glaciers uses
Tuni-Condoriri
Hydropower
Lake Titicaca
Zongo
Water Supply
Irrigation
Hydropower
La Paz
El Alto
Mururata
These glaciers were selected mainly because of the influence of ice melting on
water resources for human consumption and hydropower generation for the city of
La Paz and El Alto.
Tropical glaciers respond to:
- Precipitation (Snow/Rainfall)
- Temperature
- Humidity
- Cloudiness
- Solar Radiation
- “El Niño” Climatic Events.
Dynamics of a glacier
Glacier fluctuation since the Litle Ice Age
Glacier actuel
1912±9 AD
1871±9 AD
1734±12 AD
1808±10 AD
1686±14 AD
Charquini glacier (Bolivia)
Source:
Rabatel et al. 2005 (IRD)
160
¿Why the Bolivian glaciers are sensitive?
120
100
80
Rainfall
Precipitation
60
40
JUL
AGO
JUN
ABR
MAY
FEB
MAR
DIC
ENE
NOV
SEP
OCT
JUL
AGO
JUN
ABR
MAY
FEB
Melting
Radiacion Solar Incidente a 5150m (ORE), maxima diaria, 2003-2004
1800
SWIncMax(cor)
Polinómica (SWIncMax(cor))
1600
Radiacion Solar Max Inc
0
MAR
20
ENE
Precipitación (mm)
140
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
17/8/03
6/10/03
25/11/03
14/1/04
4/3/04
23/4/04
12/6/04
1/8/04
20/9/04
Radiation
Storage
During the summer
(Rainy season)
Fotos: E. Ramirez ©
In the Past
In the Past:
Andean Ice Cores for
climate reconstruction
IN THE LAST CENTURY
(Hoffmann, Ramirez et. al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters)
In the Present
Foto:E.Ramirez ©
Aerial photogrammetric missions since
1956 to 2009
Photogrammetric mission in 2009
Bolivian Air Force & IHH-UMSA
Zongo cumulative mass balance reconstruction since 1956
Recent studies shows the advantage of digital photogrammetric tecniques in
order to reconstruct glaciological mass balance.
The glaciological mass balances were calculated using yearly field
measurements and adjusted according to photogrammetric data.
Source: Soruco 2009 , Annals of Glaciology
Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)
JAXA - RESTEC
Zongo Glacier
ELA: 5500 m
Contacts in RESTEC:
Dr. Makoto ONO
Dr. Nobuhiro TOMIYAMA
COMBINING NEW TECHNOLOGIES: ALOS – DGPS - LIDAR
DGPS – Thales Z-Max
Source: IHH
3D – Laser scanner
Zongo glacier:
Bolivia
CASES OF STUDY IN BOLIVIA:
ZONGO GLACIER (HUAYNA POTOSI) & CHACALTAYA
6100 m
5300 m
Beginning of the Glacier Monitoring Program in Bolivia: 1991
1975
Huayna Potosí
Chacaltaya
Source: (IHH-UMSA) ©
1987
Huayna Potosí
Chacaltaya
Source: (IHH-UMSA) ©
2000
Huayna Potosí
Chacaltaya
Source: (IHH-UMSA) ©
2009
Huayna Potosí
Chacaltaya
Source: (IHH-UMSA) ©
Chacaltaya Glacier
1994
Geographical position: 16º21’S-68º07’W
Altitude range: 4700-5396 m
Catchment area: 0.52 km2
Glacier area in 2007: 0.003 km2
General exposure: South
2005
Photos:
B.Francou (IRD)©
E.Ramirez (IHH-UMSA) ©
0
-200
-50000
-400
-100000
-600
-150000
antizana 15A
antizana15b
-800
-200000
yanam arey
broggi
-1000
-250000
pastoruri
uruashraju
-1200
Cajap
-300000
2009
Cumulative area evolution (m²)
Cumulative length evolution (m)
0
Zongo (area)
-1400
Charquini-S (area)
-350000
Chacaltaya (area)
-1600
1930
-400000
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Ramirez et. al 2001; Journal of Glaciology
Foto: E. Ramírez ©
Erupción del Pinatubo
MASS BALANCE DE FOR CHACALTAYA GLACIER SINCE 1991
Source: IRD-IHH
Water resources in La Paz
The city of La Paz, administrative capital of Bolivia, is located at 3600 m
a.s.l. with a population of one million inhabitants.
An increasing migratory flow from the countryside has formed the city
of “El Alto” (3800 m a.s.l.), also about one million inhabitants, that
borders La Paz.
Photo: P. Ginot
Tuni-Condoriri
Huayna Potosi
Tuni
Chacaltaya
Milluni
Ciudad de
El Alto
Laderas
Este y Oeste de
La ciudad de La Paz
(Fuente: E. Ramirez)
Pérdida de Areas
Cuenca Condoriri
CONDORIRI
3,000
y = -1E-07x3 + 0,0004x2 - 0,3587x
2,500
R2 = 0,9782
Area (km2)
2,000
1,500
1,000
0,500
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
-0,500
1950
0,000
2045
Año
Pérdida de Areas
Cuenca Tuni
TUNI
1,600
1,400
Area (km2)
1,200
1,000
y = -2E-07x3 + 0,0007x2 - 0,6464x
2
R = 0,9618
0,800
0,600
0,400
0,200
Año
Source: IHH-UMSA, IRD
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
-0,200
1955
Glacier surface losses for the period
1956 – 2006
Condoriri: 44%, Tuni: 55%
1950
0,000
2025
2009
Demanda vs Oferta de Cuenca
PROYECCIÓN
Demand
Demanda
The analysis of the water
demands and supplies for “El Alto”
shows a break in 2009, where the
demand will surpass the water
supply.
(Ramirez & Olmos, 2006)
Mapa Fuente: Aguas del Illimani
¿What about the future?
Future climate in a world with double the preindustrial carbon dioxide
(CO2) concentrations, according to general circulation
models
!!!!! Uncertainty in
precipitation prediction !!!!
Bradley et al. SCIENCE Vol (312) 23 Junio 2006
The process of adaptation to the impacts of the climatic change will depend
besides the water resources management
Water availability
- Precipitation
- Melting (Glacier)
(Vulnerable to climatic change)
Uses of Water
- Efficient use of water
(Vulnerable to the inefficient use of the water)
At the present the city of “El Alto” loses in the water supply system even of
50%.
References:
Francou, B., Ramirez, E., Cáceres, B., Mendoza, J., Glacier Evolution in the Tropical
Andes during the Last Decades of the 20th Century: Chacaltaya, Bolivia, and Antizana,
Ecuador, AMBIO a Journal of the human environment, 29 (7) 416-422, 2000.
Ramirez, E., Francou, B., Ribstein, P., Descloitres, R., Guérin, R., Mendoza, J., Gallaire,
R., Pouyaud, B., Jordan, E., Small-sized glaciers disappearing in the Tropical Andes, A
case study in Bolivia : The Chacaltaya Glacier, 16°S, Journal of Glaciology, 47, 187194, 2001.
Hoffmann, G., E. Ramirez, J.D. Taupin, B. Francou, P. Ribstein, R. Delmas, H. Dürr, R.
Gallaire, J. Simões, U. Schotterer, M. Stievenard, and M. Werner, Coherent isotope
history of Andean ice cores over the last century, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (4),
1179-1182, 2003.
Ramirez, E., G. Hoffmann, J.D. Taupin, B. Francou, P. Ribstein,N.Caillon, F.A. Ferron,
A. Landais, J.R. Petit, B. Pouyaud, U. Schotterer, J.C. Simoes, and M. Stievenard, A
new Andean deep ice core from the Illimani (6350 m), Bolivia, Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 212 (3-4), 337-350, 2003.
Ramirez, E., B. Francou, C. Olmos, A. Román, C. Ramallo, P. Garreta, T. Berger, F.
Ledezma, A. Soruco and R. Fuertes (2007). Deshielo de la Cuenca del Tuni-Condoriri y
su Impacto sobre los Recursos hídricos de las ciudades de La Paz y El Alto. La Paz,
(Final Report) Ministry of Develpment, Vice-Miniestry of Planificationl : 150.
Thank you very much for your attention
Photo: E.Ramirez