Weekly Credit Update

Weekly Credit Update
27 January 2015
Investment Research
www.danskebank.com/CI
Analyst
Lars Holm
+45 45 12 80 41
laho@danskebank.com
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 24 of this report.
Contents
- Market news
- Trade ideas
- Company news
- Chart pack
- List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations
2
What’s on our mind
- General credit market news
• The long-awaited ECB announcement on Thursday took most of the
focus last week. Despite a large QE programme being expected, the
ECB positively surprised the market, announcing an open-ended
programme of monthly purchases of EUR60bn. Very importantly, the
ECB will continue asset purchases until it sees an improvement in
the outlook for inflation.
• The larger-than-expected QE programme gave further fuel to the
already tight credit markets, with the European IG index, iTraxx main,
tightening 6bp week on week and the HY index, iTraxx crossover,
tightening some 27bp week on week.
• However, that was last week’s news. This week has started off on
totally different ground with the Greek election. The anti-austerity
party Syriza got 149 out of 300 seats in the parliament and has
repeated its claim of a writedown of the nation’s debt and an end to
austerity. Unsurprisingly, EU leaders and the IMF’s Christine
Lagarde have already refused any special treatment for Greece but
we still expect this to draw some market intention over the coming
period.
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)
3
Buy SEB AT1 CALL 2020 – sell Nordea AT1 CALL 2024
•
Although Nordea (AA-/NO,
Aa3/NO, AA-/S) is the largest
and most diversified Nordic
bank, which has earned it a onenotch higher rating than, for
example, SEB (A+/NO, A1/NO,
A+/PO), we think the
diversification could be a
disadvantage over the coming
period.
•
We are increasingly worried
about the negative spillover
from the oil price plunge on the
Norwegian economy, which in
tandem with a contracting
Finnish economy and the
Russian geopolitical situation
could end up hitting Nordea
from several sides. In this
perspective, SEB is a more pure
play on Sweden, the most stable
Nordic country at present.
•
In our view, the main risk factor
is missed coupon payments
should one or both banks come
under financial distress.
•
We have an ‘Overweight’ rating
on SEB and an ‘Underweight’ on
Nordea and do not believe a
14bp pickup for a four-year
maturity extension is
worthwhile.
Indicative Z-spread
offer (bp)
425
NDASS '24 (BBB/NR)
SEB '20 (NR/Ba1u)
400
375
350
325
300
2014
2015
2016
AA+/AA/AA-
2017
A+/A/A-
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
2018
2019
2020
BBB+/BBB/BBB-
2021
2022
BB+/BB/BB-
2023
2024
2025
Not rated by S&P/Moody's
2026
4
Credit overview SEB AT1 and Nordea AT1

We recommend buying SEB AT1 2020 and selling Nordea AT1 2024, as the Nordea AT1
gives only a 14bp pickup for four-year maturity extension.
SEB AT1 2020
NDA AT1 2024
ISIN:
XS1136391643
US65557DAL55
Currency:
USD
EUR
Issue ratings:
Ba1/S, BBB-/PO (Moody’s,
Fitch)
BBB/NO, BBB/S (S&P,
Fitch)
Coupon:
5.75%
6.125%
First call:
13 May 2020
23 September 2024
Cash price:
100.6 (indicative)
100 (indicative)
CoCo trigger:
8% CET1 fully loaded Basel
III. Fully discretionary
coupons.
8% CET1 fully loaded Basel
III. Fully discretionary
coupons.
YTC:
5.58%
6.14%
Z-spread:
+414
+428
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
5
Buy Securitas 2021 – sell Securitas 2017
•
Securitas is rated BBB/Stable
outlook by S&P. Despite this,
the Securitas 2021 bond
trades wider than the BBBcurve ,while the Securitas
2017 bond trades at the BBB+
curve. We recommend buying
the Securitas 2021 versus the
Securitas 2017. Pickup 57bp
(Z-spread) for four-year
maturity extension.
•
The Stable outlook reflects
S&P’s view that Securitas will
continue to benefit from robust
free operating cash flow as a
result of limited capex. At the
same time, S&P believes that
ongoing cost savings will help
maintain operating margins at
their current levels.
•
In our view, a risk factor for the
2021 bond could be increased
M&A spending, aiming to
increase Securitas’s high-tech
security solution exposure.
However, Securitas has stated
several times that it is
committed to a ‘solid
investment grade rating’.
•
We have an overall
Marketweight recommendation
on Securitas.
90
Corporates: BBB80
70
60
SECUSS '21 (BBB/NR)
Corporates: BBB
ISSDC '20 (BBB-/Baa3)
Corporates: BBB+
50
GFSLN '18 (BBB-/NR)
SECUSS '18 (BBB/NR)
40
GFSLN '17 (BBB-/NR)
30
20
SECUSS '17 (BBB/NR)
10
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
6
Credit overview of Securitas bonds

We recommend buying Securitas 2021 and selling Securitas 2017 – 57bp pickup for
four-year maturity extension.
Securitas 2017
Securitas 2021
ISIN:
XS0751937185
XS0996455399
Currency:
EUR
EUR
Credit
ratings:
BBB/S
BBB/S
Coupon:
2.75%
2.625%
Maturity:
28 February 2017
22 February 2021
Cash price:
105 (indicative)
108 (indicative)
Callable:
No. Investors have put option
in case of change of control
at principal amount.
No. Investors have put
option in case of change of
control at principal amount.
YTM:
0.28%
1.11%
Z-spread:
+17
+74
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
7
Recent trade ideas
Type
Sector spread
Trade
Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB
AT1
Curve spread
Swith from SECUSS '17 to
SECUSS '21
Outright
SASSS '17
Idea
We have an ‘Overweight’ rating on SEB and an
‘Underweight’ rating on Nordea and do not believe in a
14bp pickup for a four-year maturity extension.
The Securitas 2021 bond trades wider than the BBBcurve, while the Securitas 2017 bond trades at the BBB
+ curve. We recommend buying the Securitas 2021.
We believe the SAS 2017 offers an attractive
absolute value – supported by adequate liquidity.
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Curve spread
Outright
Switch from ATCOA '19 to
ATCOA '23
VLVY' 17 or VLVY'19
Outright
NYNAAB '18
Outright
COMHSS '19
The Atlas Copco 2019s trade tighter than the average
‘A+’ rated EUR corporate. Go out the curve and buy the
'23s.
We see the VLVY cash curve as attractively valued
and an (uncertain) downgrade is more than priced into
spreads.
NYNAAB '18's, which we see as 'B+' indicatively trade
far too cheaply relative to the industrial 'B+' curve.
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Curve spread
Switch from SKFBSS '19 to
SKFBSS '18 or '20
COMHSS '19 looks cheap compared with other rated
and unrated issues in SEK. Trades like a B+ but is
officially rated BB-.
SKF’s 2020s and 2018s offer attractive value relative to
the rating (‘BBB+’ NO and ‘Baa1’ S) Downgrade seems
priced in already.
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
26-Jan-15
-8
23-Jan-15
81
18-Dec-14
807
18-Dec-14
16
27-Nov-14
72
25-Nov-14
640
19-Nov-14
450
18-Nov-14
2
See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations.
Source: Danske Bank Markets
8
Company news from the past week
Name
News
YIT: Streamlines Russian units (finally) and says that its Q4 housing starts in Russia decreased
'significantly'. We estimate Q4 starts in Russia were 850, down 55% y/y and 10% versus Q3 - in
line comment. Also, completion of several large projects has been expected but timing has been
uncertain (depends on authorities' paper work). This is likely to trigger several EURm positive
IFRIC 15 items on EBIT but have limited cash flow impact as the majority of these apartments
YIT
have been sold and are visible in cash flow. While boosting IFRS earnings in Q4, focus and
guidance are based on non-IFRS numbers (i.e. percentage of completion). Summary: Small
positive but does not take away H1 sales risks in Russia. Still, banks probably will not 'force' share
issue provided that YIT lowers housing starts and continues to lower net debt. We have a 'B'
shadow rating with a negative outlook on YIT.
Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge (Hold, no outstanding EUR benchmark issues): books a NOK300m loss
due to its NOK615m total exposure to Russia via two ownership stakes of 10% in Tavrichesky
Bank (TB) and 75% in North-West1 Alliance Bank (NW1). The reason for the writedown is mainly
liquidity issues in TB, while NW1 is funded more or less solely by NONGNO. NONGNO has tried to
Sparebank 1 Nord-Norge e
unwind its Russian exposure for a while and will continue to do so going forward but the current
conditions are not favourable in this regard. No negative read-through to other Norwegian banks
as NONGNO is the only one with such exposure but Nordea might come into focus today due to
its Russian subsidiary.
UPM will close 675,000 tonnes of paper capacity by end-March 2015, having concluded
employee negotiations. The paper mills in question represent around 2% of total European paper
capacity and the closure is part of UPM's EUR150m cost-cutting programme announced last year,
i.e. this capacity closure is not an addition to what was already planned. Continued capacity
UPM
closures are needed to stave off pricing pressure on the European graphic paper market and UPM
has been at the forefront of this for a while to its own benefit but also that of other European
players in the industry such as Stora Enso and Metsä Board, with the latter recently announcing
that it plans to exit the paper business fully. We have a Marketweight recommendation on UPM.
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Implication
Credit positive
Credit negative
Credit positive
9
SSAB
SSAB has issued a preliminary estimate for 4Q operating profit at SEK100-150m, excluding nonrecurring items. This is somewhat below the market estimate of SEK250m. SSAB plans to write
down certain book values related to the Rautaruukki aquisition, mainly in Fortaco and Ruukki
construction. Overall, this will mean a decrease in goodwill from the acquisition of around SEK0.3bn.
The writedowns have no impact on cash flow but have a negative impact of around 2pp on SSAB’s
debt/equity ratio, which was 53% as at 30 September 2014. On the positive side, SSAB is making
good progress on its synergies with around SEK300m acheived so far. Full synergies are now
expected to arrive one year earlier in the second half of 2016. The original goal was to achieve
annual cost synergies of SEK1.4bn within three years, with SEK350m of this in 2015.
Credit neutral
Color Group
In December 2012, Color Line AS received a writ filed by Bastø Fosen AS claiming damages of up
to NOK992m for loss of profits. The grounds for the claim are that Bastø Fosen failed in an
attempt to launch a ferry route between Sandefjord and Strømstad in 1998 as a consequence of
an alleged tortuous breach of competition law on the part of Color Line AS. Color Line AS rejected
the claim. The Oslo District Court ruled that the question of whether the limitation period for filing
claims had expired should be heard in separate proceedings. The District Court ruled in June
2013 that any claim would be time-barred and accordingly ruled in favour of Color Line AS. Bastø
Fosen appealed the ruling to the Borgarting Court of Appeal. At end-September 2014, the court
ruled that Bastø Fosens claims brought forward were obsolete and without merit, which is why
Color Line won the appeal case. All legal costs were imposed on Bastø Fosen AS. At end-October
2014 Bastø Fosen AS decided to appeal the ruling once more to the high court. Following today´s
news it is evidenced that the High Court has rejected to accept appeal case. Although expected,
we find this news positive for Color Group bonds since it finally rules out any significant cash
leakage from this front. In addition to the described and concluded case above, Color Group has
received a writ from Nye Kystlink AS with a claim for damages of up to approx. NOK1.3bn. The writ
follows a conciliation complaint filed in December 2012. The grounds for the claim for damages
are direct losses and loss of profits and capital returns relating to Nye Kystlink’s legal
predecessor’s of a ferry business between the ports of Brevik and Hirtshals and Langesund and
Strømstad in the period 2004-2008. Having assessed the various writs the Board of Color Group
so far has not found it necessary to make any provisions in the accounts for the Kystlinnk claims
(at least according to our knowledge). Presumably since they expect this second case is similar to
the Bastø Fosen case above.
Credit positive
Source: Danske Bank Markets
10
Company news from the past week
Store Enso
Metso
Stora Enso has taken a writedown on assets in its graphic paper production business. Some
are
related to the recent sell off of the Uetersen paper mill in Germany. As the writedown
not will
affect cash flow, this is credit neutral and not unexpected given the ongoing weakness
the
in
graphic paper market. We have a Marketweight recommendation on Stora Enso.
Credit neutral
Metso announced the sale of its process automation unit (PAS) as previously communicated
when the strategy was updated in late 2014. The PAS business was left behind following the
divestment of the Pulp, Paper & Power business in 2013. The value of the transaction is EUR340
and Metso's net debt should be significantly reduced following the completion of the transaction,
which will be sometime in Q2. Pro forma we expect to see adjusted net debt to decline from 1.7x
currently to around 1.1-1.3x. Metso's annual EBITDA will decline by around EUR40m pro forma.
Overall, this is postive at least short term. A leverage lower than 1.5x is not really needed to
maintain a 'BBB' rating and as such one could fear that Metso's will use the proceed for M&A or
addtional shareholder payouts. Metso's mainshareholder is Cevian, with 13.8% of the capital. We
have a Marketweight recommendation on Metso.
Credit positive
Source: Danske Bank Markets
11
Selected new issues
Selected new issues
Date
Issuer
23/01/2015
Terna Spa
23/01/2015 Enagas Financiaciones Sa
21/01/2015
Adif Alta Velocidad
20/01/2015 Jpmorgan Chase & Co
20/01/2015
Ald International
Coupon
0.875%
1.25%
1.875%
EUR003M +55bps
0.75%
CCY Volume
EUR 1 000 m
EUR 600 m
EUR 1 000 m
EUR 750 m
EUR 500 m
Maturity
Feb/22
Feb/25
Jan/25
Jan/20
Jan/18
S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM
/ Baa1e / BBB+e
52
/ / A-e
65
/ Baa3e / BBB+e
119
A / / A+e
55
BBB / /
66
Source: Danske Bank Markets
12
Chart pack: euro spreads and returns
Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices
IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100
Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices
HY total Rreturn, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
13
Chart pack: relative value
iTraxx vs iBoxx
EUR CDS spreads – Nordic banks
Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)
Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
14
Chart pack: general market development
European swap and government yields
3M TED-spread, US and euro area
Euro swap curve spread
Euro/USD basis swaps
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
15
Chart pack: fund flows
Europe, net sales
US, net sales
Sweden, net sales
Norway, net sales
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
16
Chart pack: macro
GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted
Purchasing Managers’ Indices
Euro area y/y change in bank lending
Euro area lending standards
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
17
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Ahlstrom Oyj
Akelius Residential Ab
Ambu A/S
Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S
Arla Foods Amba
Atlas Copco Ab
Avinor As
Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As
Bank Norwegian As
Beerenberg Holdco Ii As
Bw Offshore
Cargotec Oyj
Carlsberg Breweries A/S
Cermaq Asa
Citycon Oyj
Color Group As
Com Hem Holding Ab
Danfoss A/S
Danske Bank A/S
Dfds A/S
Dlg Finance As
Dna Ltd
Dnb Bank Asa
Dong Energy A/S
Dsv A/S
Eg Holding
Eika Boligkreditt As
Eika Gruppen As
Electrolux Ab
Elenia Oy
Elisa Oyj
Entra Eiendom As
Rating
B+
BBBBBBBBB+
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
Stable
BBBStable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
Stable
BB-
Stable
BBB
B
ABBB
A-
Moody's
Rating Outlook
BBB+
Stable
Baa1
Stable
A
AA-
Stable
Stable
A2
A1
Stable
Stable
Baa2
Neg
Fitch
Rating Outlook
Stable
BBB+
BBB
B
BB+
BBB-
BBBBBBBB-
S&P
Rating Outlook
BBB
Stable
Baa2
Stable
BBBBB
A
Stable
Stable
Neg
A3
Stable
BBB
Stable
A
Stable
B+
Stable
Stable
Stable
A+
BBB+
Stable
Stable
A1
Baa1
BBB
Stable
Wr
BBB
Pos
Baa2
Neg
Stable
BBB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
WD
Stable
Stable
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
Mads Rosendal
Louis Landeman
Jakob Magnussen
Brian Børsting
OVERWEIGHT
Mads Rosendal
Mads Rosendal
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
Ola Heldal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Øyvind Mossige
Øyvind Mossige
Mads Rosendal
Brian Børsting
UNDERWEIGHT
Knut-Ivar Bakken
Louis Landeman
Niklas Ripa
Ola Heldal
Jakob Magnussen
Niklas Ripa
Mads Rosendal
Ola Heldal
T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKETWEIGHT
Jakob Magnussen MARKETWEIGHT
Brian Børsting
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
MARKETWEIGHT
Jakob Magnussen
OVERWEIGHT
Ola Heldal
OVERWEIGHT
Ola Heldal
18
Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5
Danske Bank
Company
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec
Farstad Shipping Asa
BB
Neg
BBFingrid Oyj
Finnair Oyj
BB
Stable
Fortum Oyj
Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab
Fred Olsen Energy Asa
BB+
Neg
G4S Plc
Getinge Ab
BB+
Neg
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd
B
Heimstaden Ab
BB
Stable
BBHemso Fastighets Ab
BBB+
Stable
BBB
Hkscan Oyj
BB
Stable
Hoist Kredit Ab
BBStable
B+
Husqvarna Ab
BBBPos
Ikano Bank Ab
BBB
Stable
Investor Ab
Iss A/S
J Lauritzen A/S
B
Stable
BJernhusen Ab
AStable
Jyske Bank A/S
Kesko Oyj
BBB
Stable
Klaveness Ship Holding As
BBStable
B+
Loomis Ab
BBBStable
Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab
BBB+
Stable
Meda Ab
BBStable
Metsa Board Oyj
Metso Oyj
Ncc Ab
BBBStable
Neste Oil Oyj
BBBStable
Nokia Oyj
Nokian Renkaat Oyj
BBB+
Stable
Nordea Bank Ab
S&P
Rating Outlook
Moody's
Rating Outlook
Fitch
Rating Outlook
A+
Stable
A1
Stable
A+
Stable
ABBB+
Neg
Stable
A2
Neg
A-
Neg
BBB-
Stable
AABBB-
Stable
Stable
A1
Stable
A-
Stable
Baa1
Neg
B+
BBB
Pos
Stable
B1
Baa2
Pos
Stable
BB
Pos
Ba2
Pos
BB
Stable
AA-
Neg
Aa3
Neg
AA-
Stable
Analyst(s)
Øyvind Mossige
Jakob Magnussen
Brian Børsting
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
Louis Landeman
Sondre Stormyr
Louis Landeman
Louis Landeman
Brian Børsting
Gabriel Bergin
Louis Landeman
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
Brian Børsting
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Gabriel Bergin
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Brian Børsting
Louis Landeman
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
Mads Rosendal
Louis Landeman
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Recomm.
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
19
Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5
Company
Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa
Norwegian Property Asa
Nykredit Bank A/S
Nynas Group
Odfjell Se
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa
Olympic Shipping As
Orkla Asa
Outokumpu Oyj
Pohjola Bank Oyj
Posten Norge As
Postnord Ab
Prosafe Se
Ramirent Oyj
Saab Ab
Sampo Oyj
Sandnes Sparebank
Sandvik Ab
Sas Ab
Sbab Bank Ab
Scania Ab
Schibsted Asa
Seadrill Ltd
Securitas Ab
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab
Skanska Ab
Skf Ab
Sognekraft As
Solstad Offshore Asa
Spar Nord Bank A/S
Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As
Sparebank 1 Nord Norge
Rating
BBBBB-
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
B+
Stable
B+
B+
BBB+
B+
BBB+
B
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Pos
Pos
ABBB+
BB
BB+
BBB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BBB+
Stable
BBB
BB+
Stable
Stable
BBB+
Stable
BBB
BBBBB+
A-
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
S&P
Rating Outlook
Moody's
Rating Outlook
Fitch
Rating Outlook
A+
Neg
Baa2U
Stable
A
AA-
Neg
Aa3
Neg
A+
Wr
Baa2
Stable
B+
B
B
BBB
BA
A-
Neg
Stable
Neg
Stable
Wr
A2
Stable
Neg
BBB
A+
Stable
Neg
Wr
A1
Neg
BBB+
Neg
Baa1
Stable
A2
Neg
BB
A+
BBB
B+
A
Analyst(s)
Brian Børsting
Ola Heldal
Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm
Jakob Magnussen
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Ola Heldal
Øyvind Mossige
Ola Heldal
Mads Rosendal
Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm
Ola Heldal
Gabriel Bergin
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
Louis Landeman
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Ola Heldal
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
Pos
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
Jakob Magnussen
Øyvind Mossige
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm
Recomm.
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
20
Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5
Company
Sparebank 1 Smn
Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa
Sponda Oyj
St1 Nordic Oy
Statkraft Sf
Statnett Sf
Statoil Asa
Steen & Strom As
Stena Ab
Stockmann Oyj Abp
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd
Stora Enso Oyj
Storebrand Bank Asa
Sunnfjord Energi As
Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys
Swedavia Ab
Swedbank Ab
Swedish Match Ab
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab
Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca
Svenska Handelsbanken Ab
Sydbank A/S
Tallink Group As
Tdc A/S
Teekay Offshore Partners Lp
Tele2 Ab
Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson
Telenor Asa
Teliasonera Ab
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Thon Holding As
Tine Sa
Rating
BBBBB
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
B+
BB+
Stable
Stable
BBB+
BBBAA-
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Fitch
Rating Outlook
AStable
Stable
A-
AA+
AA-
Stable
Stable
Stable
Aaa
Wr
Aa2
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
Stable
B2
Stable
BB
BBB+
Stable
Neg
Ba2
Baa2
Stable
Neg
WD
A+
BBB
Neg
Stable
A1
Baa2
Neg
Stable
A+
AAA-
Stable
Neg
Baa1
Aa3
Baa1
Stable
Neg
Neg
AA-
BBB
Neg
Baa3
Stable
BBB
BBB+
A
ABBB
Stable
Stable
Stable
Neg
Baa1
A3
A3
Wr
Stable
Stable
Neg
BBB+
BB
BBB-
Stable
BB
Stable
BB-
BBBBB
Stable
Stable
B+
BBB+
BBB+
Moody's
Rating Outlook
A2
Neg
A2
Neg
Stable
Stable
BBB+
BBB
S&P
Rating Outlook
Stable
Stable
ABBB
Analyst(s)
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Louis Landeman
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
Niklas Ripa
Mads Rosendal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Mads Rosendal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Gabriel Bergin
Pos
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Niklas Ripa
Stable
Ola Heldal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Ola Heldal
Stable
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Stable
Ola Heldal
Stable
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Recomm.
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
21
Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5
Company
Upm-Kymmene Oyj
Vasakronan Ab
Vattenfall Ab
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Victoria Park Ab
Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa
Rating
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
A-
Stable
BBBBBBBB-
Pos
Stable
Stable
S&P
Rating Outlook
BB+
Stable
A-
B+
Stable
Moody's
Rating Outlook
Ba1
Stable
A3
Stable
Fitch
Rating Outlook
WD
A-
Neg
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
Mads Rosendal
MARKETWEIGHT
Louis Landeman
Jakob Magnussen MARKETWEIGHT
Niklas Ripa
OVERWEIGHT
Louis Landeman
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
22
Fixed Income Credit Research team
Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst
Head of Credit Research
+45 45 12 85 05
hova@danskebank.com
Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst
Industrials
+45 45 12 85 19
brbr@danskebank.com
Ola Heldal, Analyst
TMT
+47 85 40 84 33
olh@danskebank.com
Louis Landeman, Analyst
TMT, Industrials
+46 8 568 80524
llan@danskebank.com
Lars Holm, Senior Analyst
Financials
+45 45 12 80 41
laho@danskebank.dk
Sondre Dale Stormyr, Analyst
Offshore Rigs
+47 85 40 70 70
sost@danskebank.com
Mads Rosendal, Analyst
Industrials, Pulp & Paper
+46 8 568 80594
madro@danskebank.com
Gabriel Bergin, Analyst
Strategy, Industrials
+46 8 568 80602
gabe@danskebank.com
Henrik René Andresen, Analyst
Credit Portfolios
+45 45 13 33 27
hena@danskebank.com
Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst
Utilities, Energy
+45 45 12 85 03
jakja@danskebank.com
Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst
High Yield, Industrials
+45 45 12 80 47
niri@danskebank.com
Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst
Oil Services
+47 85 40 54 91
omss@danskebank.com
Knut-Ivar Bakken, Analyst
Fish Farming
+47 85 40 70 74
knb@danskebank.com
Bjørn Kristian Røed, Analyst
Shipping
+47 85 40 70 72
bred@danskebank.com
23
Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is
Lars Holm, Senior Analyst.
Analyst certification
Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the
research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further
certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
expressed in the research report.
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the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
25