American Furniture Industry: What Will it Take to

Transcription

Anderson Bauman Tourtellot Vos & Co.
An ABTV Industry Watch Report
The American Furniture Industry:
What Will It Take to Survive?
The first decade of the 21st century has not been kind to the American furniture industry.
Having experienced the “Asian Invasion,” which rapidly eliminated nearly all domestic wood
production and disrupted upholstery production, the industry is now facing a severe economic
slowdown, with incoming orders 20 to 40 percent below normal levels. The combined impact of the
competitive off-shore onslaught and the domestic economic meltdown has put unbearable pressure
on all furniture players, without exception.
Industry leaders Ethan Allen, La-Z-Boy, and Furniture Brands have watched helplessly as
already slim profits turned into robust losses, and stock prices plummeted. Industry niche players,
even the best of the lot, have scrambled to cut costs, shut down plants, and abandon marketing
programs. Bankruptcies and orderly liquidations have been numerous, especially in the retail sector,
and many more are yet to come. Typically, it takes time to bury a furniture company, for no matter
how mortally wounded it may be, the liquidation of assets keeps it afloat longer than expected.
There is no rising tide to save the fleet. The aggregate demand for furniture is shrinking and
the traditional channel of distribution is following in its path. Assuming the economy turns and that
order levels improve, the survivors will face far less competition than before and may well have
some interesting opportunities. During the near-catastrophic period from 2002 to the present,
virtually all aspects of the industry have changed, so it will take new strategies and tactics to cope
with the emerging structure. There can be no going back to the old ways. The likelihood of the
‘same old same old’ returning is about as good as the Dodgers returning to Brooklyn.
The industry is obviously going through a transformation, but the emerging form is not so
easy to envisage. Upholstery manufacturing has changed; conventional wood manufacturing has
disappeared; some retail channels are gone, while others have emerged; and heretofore neglected
areas like information technology, systems, logistics, and global sourcing have become essential, not
peripheral.
The purpose of this white paper is to get a good fix on the current state of the industry and
to project from that some semblance of what we might expect in the future. Unfortunately, the
severity of the economic downturn makes it difficult to distinguish what works from that which
does not.
FURNITURE INDUSTRY WATCH REPORT
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Significant findings include the following:

Consumer shopping patterns are changing dramatically as the Baby Boomer generation
leaves the stage.

The retail channel of distribution continues to fragment with traditional formats losing
ground to new venues.

Superior product remains the most important variable, but information technology and
logistical expertise are growing in importance.

Appallingly inadequate marketing continues to plague the industry. Having failed to
establish meaningful brand names of their own, suppliers have been forced to “rent”
licensed brands from designers and celebrities.

The industry remains unable to compete globally on the basis of price, but there may be
an opportunity to compete on the basis of quality and customization.

Efforts to consolidate the industry continue to be met with fierce resistance. Agility
trumps size.

The unprecedented macro-economic compression is distorting company performance
across the entire industry, masking the results of individual companies.
Consumers Decide “Pretty Good” Is Good Enough
As the Baby Boomers aged, they were expected to buy a lot of furniture. Instead, they
shunned elaborate purchases of home furnishings. Even the most conspicuous consumers, after
spending extravagantly on oversized homes, showed little interest in fine furniture. Instead, they
furnished their million dollar homes with $599 sofas—or nothing at all. Many McMansions featured
rooms completely devoid of furniture. When they did buy furniture, they often selected inexpensive
‘disposable’ items from stores like IKEA, Rooms-to-Go, or Pottery Barn.
Unlike automobiles, appliances, and electronics, well-made wooden furniture hardly ever
wears out. It keeps occupying space and rarely needs replacing. New houses feature built-in cabinets
and walk-in closets with enough storage room to eliminate the need for dressers and chests. Even
the new flat screen televisions have made the armoire entertainment center obsolete. Unless there is
a growing population with an expanding housing industry, the demand for new wood furniture all
but disappears.
Style changes can trigger demand, but wood furniture styling moves with glacial velocity. In
the last 50 years, casual styling has moved from Colonial to Country, a short trip, and formal styling
has moved from early 18th Century to late 18th Century reproductions.
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Prior to the Baby Boom generation, consumers usually grew tired of upholstered products
before they wore out, but upholstery stylists have pushed neutral fabrics that never seem to grow
old.
In essence, the furniture industry faces a consumer audience composed of people who are
largely indifferent to the category and unwilling to spend much on it. This situation is nothing new
to the mass-market segment, but in the upper-end, the impact has been severe. Amazingly enough,
no one seems to be doing any market research on consumer shopping patterns, so efforts to market
the products are based on guess-work and usually resort to price discounting, which has limited
appeal. Price elasticity does not always apply to furniture. When women’s dresses are discounted, the
customer feels the need to buy more dresses, but when sofas are marked down, the customer still
only needs to buy one.
Channel of Distribution Continues to Fracture
Changing consumer shopping patterns have been matched by changes in the retail channel
of distribution. The Internet has become an important factor, though more as a medium than as a
retail channel. The need to see and touch the product coupled with transport and handling issues
have kept the Internet at bay. Big Box retailers, like Costco, have been drawn to furniture, but they
have not been successful. Department stores, like Macy’s, used to consider furniture the lynchpin to
the entire home-goods category. Today they are reluctant players. The upper-end purveyors, the
‘carriage trade’ stores, have disappeared, but interior designers remain a factor. Regional chains come
and go and national chains never seem to find lasting success. Hybrids, like Crate & Barrel and
Room & Board, combine ‘bricks’ and ‘clicks’ with great looking catalogs to capture the so-called
‘lifestyle’ category.
Finally, the big push to establish single brand, dedicated company stores has failed, with the
notable exception of Ethan Allen, La-Z-Boy, and perhaps Ashley. The move to a vertical structure
by Ethan Allen in the 1960s was at first dismissed by the rest of the industry as sheer folly. As it
unfolded, however, it became the envy of the industry. Ethan Allen executive Pat Norton moved
over to La-Z-Boy and was able to create a successful store program there, but no one else succeeded
until the arrival of Ashley. Several of the industry’s top brands attempted to establish store
programs, with horrible results. Drexel Heritage moved in and out of various store programs so
many times that they alienated their independent dealer base and lost credibility. Thomasville had
initial success, but then it crashed and burned. Broyhill, Lane, Henredon, Pennsylvania House,
Hitchcock, Norwalk, and others tried to become retailers without success. Today, only a few remain
open. Bassett, Stickley, and Baker operate stores in trading areas where they had difficulty getting
regular dealers to meet their needs. Mitchell Gold stores are an unknown. Furniture Brands still has
a few stores that they would like to close were it not for the lease obligations. It is unlikely that any
of these stores make money.
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At times, it seems that there is a genetic difference between manufacturers and retailers. You
can be one or the other, not both. The retail cauldron continues to bubble, causing much toil and
trouble for the retailer and supplier. Consumers keeps sending distress signals saying their needs are
not being met, but the retail responses are inadequate.
By its nature, furniture is a space-eater requiring large retail footprints and warehouses. This
means high fixed costs. It is also hard to handle as it goes from the factory packing room to a
container, to a truck or rail car, to a port, to a ship, to another port, to another truck, to a
warehouse, to a delivery truck, to a consumer’s home. This means high variable costs. Together, it
means the consumer pays at least twice as much as the material, labor, and overhead cost of the
product when it was packed.
A lot of this waste could be eliminated with the advent of a new retail format that requires
less space. The technology to do this exists, but no one seems to be taking the lead in applying it.
Product Is Still King, but Its Crown Is Slipping
Furniture insiders have long claimed that the product itself is the key determinant of sales.
During the shopping process, consumers, largely female, quickly dismiss the items they do not want
and respond favorably to those that reflect their self image. No amount of marketing or selling can
change this. Others, largely male, have insisted that most of the product looks the same anyway
(“It’s just a sea of brown.”), so more attention should be paid to non-product variables.
Without question, the product is still king. The ‘over the top’ styling of the pre-meltdown
period has been toned down somewhat, partially as a way to reduce cost, but the inevitable return to
flashier styles could boost sales in a recovery. However, dependence on product while neglecting
other variables can no longer be tolerated. Logistical expertise and the use of information
technology are becoming the new keys to differentiation. No one ever raves about the product
styling at Ethan Allen or Ashley, yet both of these brands have outperformed the field. Their
customer service and use of computers make the difference, not their products.
Traditionally, the industry has been known for sub-standard customer service. Upholstery
‘broken promises’ were usually a result of unreliable fabric suppliers, and missed casegoods ship
dates were caused by erratic factory schedules. The consumer has been greatly inconvenienced by
this woeful practice, and the advent of off-shore production has exacerbated the situation. Those
companies that manage their supply chain, no matter how lengthy, will gain competitive advantage
by virtue of service reliability and inventory management.
In the meantime, the new product development process is badly in need of streamlining.
Fraught with waste, the old process is costly and slow. Worse still, the results are only occasionally
successful. It has been estimated that less than one third of new wood product introductions actually
make it into production and only half of those retail well. Predicting winners may always remain an
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art, but the development process can be rationalized much more effectively. The idea of testing new
product has always met with resistance and only spot usage of this technique has been made. In an
admirable attempt to change this, Furniture Brands claims it is testing new products now. It remains
to be seen how they will be able to avoid tipping their hand and giving their competitors the chance
to copy their new introductions before they get to market.
Design piracy continues to be a real problem. Prior to the globalization of furniture,
producers could at least keep new designs under wraps in their factories until the products were
shown at market. The ‘knock-off artists’ could then copy them right away or wait to see if they sell
at retail before doing so. Now, there may well be opportunities to see the prototypes in Asia before
they get to market. Frequently, Asian producers are pleased to show you what they produce for their
other customers.
This blatant practice of copying is often encouraged by retailers, but it only serves to confuse
the consumer and lead to a sameness of design offerings. Most of all, it hurts the innovative
companies that invest in fresh designs that are needed to attract new consumers and generate sales
growth. The only way for the innovators to cope with this is by staying ahead of the imitators and
improving their speed to market. This can be accomplished by rationalizing the new product
development process, yet scant attention has been given to this concept.
Can Factory-less Execs Learn to Live with the Consumer?
It is no secret that the industry has long been factory-oriented and blissfully unaware of the
end user. Now the factories are shut down, and it is time to turn management attention to the end
user. The ongoing lack of marketing in the industry is striking. Furniture people know how to make
furniture. It remains to be seen whether or not they know how to market furniture. Now that they
have taught the Asians how to make it, they simply must become adept at marketing and
distribution, or those functions will also be handed over to the offshore producers.
Not that long ago, nearly all consumer electronics were produced and marketed in America.
The strong line-up of brands included Magnavox, GE, Sylvania, Motorola, Emerson, Zenith, and a
host of niche players, like Scott, Fisher, Harmon-Kardon, and KLH, aimed at the audiophile
segment. The development of solid state components and color televisions added a huge stimulus to
sales, but in the late sixties imported electronic ‘chassis’ started to arrive from Japan. Soon, they
began to show up in lower-cost models, but they were not taken seriously. After all, in those days,
“made in Japan” meant cheap and shoddy. Despite this, in a few short years, the Americans ceased
making nearly all consumer electronics and let the Japanese have the business. But what about those
wonderful brands? A few migrated to other segments; most disappeared. Now the market is served
by companies with names like Sony, Mitsubishi, Samsung, Panasonic, and LG.
The same thing can happen in furniture. Some offshore producer will become frustrated
with his American customer/partner and decide to buy him out. This may already be happening. If
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the buyers happen to pick up a number of stores and a good brand name in the process, they will
become formidable competitors. If the domestic companies do not develop marketing skills and the
ability to infuse their brands with meaning, they will be wiped out as quickly as Magnavox was
silenced by Sony. American retailers and suppliers, large and small, can no longer treat marketing like
an unwanted house guest.
Making the Move from Provincial to Global
Historically, American producers considered the export market to be a waste of time and
made only token attempts to develop international sales. They had enough domestic business to
keep their plants running and the export business was tricky. Americans were not comfortable
dealing with currency fluctuations, style and size differences, language issues, oceangoing freight
procedures, and cultural idiosyncrasies. They lacked the patience required to build export sales.
Likewise, when it came to importing component parts and finished goods, the same indifference was
in evidence. They paid lip service to the need to be a global organization and looked for reasons to
justify the lack of imports. The easiest culprits were quality and delivery reliability, but in truth, the
American factories had their own problems with these issues.
The headlong rush to move production offshore has abated somewhat and it appears that
the obituary for the middle man was premature. Most retailers do not have the appetite to go
directly to offshore suppliers due to the risks and the overhead required. They prefer to buy from
domestic importers. Meanwhile, the Chinese have cooled some of their ardor for furniture
production, just as the Taiwanese did in the 1990’s. The cyclical demand, rising labor costs, and
pollution concerns have led to widespread plant closings. The Vietnamese and Indonesians have
absorbed some of the business, but they are no match for the Chinese.
Staying on top of international economies and political movements, not to mention the
constraints our own Congress imposes, requires a sophisticated management team and visionary
leadership. Due to the downsizing and offshoring of the last 10 years, the furniture ranks have been
depleted, and fresh blood is needed.
Consolidation Strategies Continue to Fail
Michael Porter warned years ago that unless you can change the underlying reasons why
some industries are fragmented, efforts to consolidate them will be met with overwhelming
resistance. The furniture industry is a poster child for Porter’s observation. Fifty years of
consolidation efforts have failed to make a dent in the ranks of players. The underlying reasons for
this fragmentation include the lack of economies of scale, heavy design emphasis, fragmented
consumer tastes, readily available substitutes, no size advantage, low entry barriers, and weak brand
loyalty. Porter says the presence of just one of these factors will block consolidation, yet all seven of
them persist in the furniture business. Is it any wonder that the industry remains fragmented?
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The focused niche players fare better in this chaotic structure, because they are more agile;
but the large, publicly held companies continue to struggle.

La-Z-Boy managed to lose a modest $13.5 million on sales of $1,450.9 during fiscal 2008,
and in 2009 the company watched sales drop 15.4% and reported losses of $121.3 million.
By stressing upholstery over casegoods and targeting the middle price points, management
has avoided the big losses.

Furniture Brands, on the other hand, managed to lose $385.9 million on sales of
$1,743,176 in fiscal 2008. For an encore, they lost another $20.2 million on a 30% drop in
sales in the first half of 2009.

Ethan Allen, historically the best company in the business, reported a loss of $52.7 million
on sales of $674.3 million in fiscal 2009. For the fourth quarter, sales declined a staggering
41.5%, resulting in a loss of $16.9 million.
The smaller, privately held companies suffer in silence without the need to report results
publicly. Finding a bright spot is not easy, but one company certainly merits recognition. Ashley
Furniture, based in Arcadia, Wisconsin far from the industry base in High Point, has captured the
#1 position as a retailer and the #1 position as a supplier. They have done this by stressing customer
service and information technology.
Lean Really Works, but…
With nearly all wood production and a healthy chunk of upholstery manufacturing already
relocated off shore, it is easy to ignore the need to improve operations, but the cost is high.
Furniture casegoods construction has traditionally relied on lots of work-in-process parts stacked on
carts getting pushed through the factory using lots of indirect labor roughly following a flexible
schedule. Management was expected to pack a certain amount of dollars per day but the items they
packed may or may not have been on the schedule. As long as you could afford excess inventory,
inaccurate delivery promises, and heavy indirect labor costs, the system worked well enough.
In the early 1990s, Masco and others tried to introduce so called Lean Manufacturing
techniques that would permit the production of one item at a time. They were right to do so, but
they botched the job and the old-line wood production people rejected the idea. Later, it took hold
in a few places and began to pay big dividends at Henredon and Hickory Chair. Among the benefits
were dramatic reductions of inventory, improved quality and fewer repairs. Finally, 20 years after the
introduction of the idea, it is taking hold. Furniture Brands cited it in their second quarter
conference call, and Ethan Allen announced a complete transformation of their domestic wood
manufacturing to essentially a custom operation.
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Upholstery production, unlike the wood ‘push’ system, has typically ‘pulled’ orders through
the operations, but the plants were laid out by sequential departments and lots of work-in-process
inventory, extra indirect labor expenses, and missed schedules were the norm. The application of
Lean Manufacturing here meant organizing the plant around cells that cluster the relevant workers
to build the whole item as a team. The results are most impressive, with big reductions in
throughput time, work-in-process inventory, and shop floor space. But again, not many companies
have taken advantage of the cellular method. It is easier to cling to the old ways.
Making the Lean Conversion takes skill and fierce, almost religious, dedication at the top. It
also costs money and should not be attempted timidly. Innovative manufacturing methods do not
seem to fit furniture operations as well as expected. Dozens of companies have tried to implement
Enterprise Resource Planning systems only to incur huge expenses and experience massive
disruptions. And those few who got to the finish line found the payoff to be marginal. Likewise,
efforts to reduce lead times have not resulted in sales increases. A reduction from three months to
three weeks will make an impact, but cutting lead times to one or two weeks means nothing to the
consumer who may be repainting the room and will refuse delivery that fast.
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So far, this year does not look any better…
Now, on the following page is a look at the Top 25 Sources for the U.S. Furniture Market as
reported by Furniture/Today.
Note that sales dropped 10.4% on average and over half of the companies had double digit
sales declines. Only three companies had sales increases and well-regarded companies, like Stanley,
Hooker, and Ethan Allen, had some of the largest declines. Also, the famous brands fared no better
than the non-branded firms, and the high-end suffered along with the low.
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Retailers had to contend with similar adversity as housing construction stopped and consumers learned
to live with the furniture they already owned. Here is a look at the top stores broken out by
conventional vs. specialty formats. As with the suppliers, the picture is equally dreary for the retailers.
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Marketing Holds the Hope for Revival
As has been stated, many furniture companies will not survive this recession. Those that
have a chance to survive should look to sales and marketing to get out in front while most of their
competitors are still in a foxhole.
In every recession, companies that continued with their marketing and advertising activities
through the worst times stood out from competitors, since marketing is often the first area that is
cut when budgets need to be trimmed. History has shown that those who keep focusing on
marketing often gain market share that persists for years, if not decades, after the economy
rebounds.
In furniture companies, of course, marketing has traditionally been weak. Leaders in the
industry have long been reluctant to try to grasp the consumer’s perspective or to try to improve the
customer experience. Even dire circumstances have not induced furniture companies to try to learn
from other consumer goods sectors.
It’s time for furniture manufactures to take the blinders off. Furniture companies determined
to stay alive will need to be open to change – in technology and in what information they capture
and make use of, in manufacturing and distribution, and most of all in marketing and branding.
Furniture executives would do well to study the fashion industry, and to learn why women
will pay $500 for a plain black dress when quite similar garments are to be had for $100 or even $50.
The answer of course is branding. The company that can sell the dress for $500 has created a
perception in the consumer’s mind of what the label stands for. The company has found a way to
add value to a product. It is not weakness for furniture executives to look at Proctor & Gamble, VF
Corporation, Unilever, Toyota Motor Corporation, Colgate Palmolive, Ralph Lauren and others to
learn new marketing techniques for their own brands.
Companies that have the cash reserves to attack the market as the recession ends should also
be looking closely at their product lines and their people. This may be the time to scrap certain lines
and to think about introducing new products. It is definitely the time to scrutinize the sales and
marketing workforce, eliminating marginal performers and hiring the most skilled people to be had.
Needless to say, very good people are on the market now, not only in sales and marketing but in
every other discipline as well.
This is a time to put a management team together that is focused on building a brand that
will withstand the ups and downs of the economy and give the consumer of their products a reason
to buy. The alternative is to compete with the low-cost producer and private label brands. In that
type of scenario, the company’s destiny will forever be dictated by others such as suppliers and
retailers that will put margins under continuous pressure. The ability to make money will be
diminished and may mean the eventual liquidation of many within the furniture sector.
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Conclusion
As difficult as the last decade has been for furniture, the long-awaited ‘recovery’ may not be
any easier. As demand picks up, production will have to increase, and this takes working capital.
Who will provide it? The retail channel has been damaged. Where will the repairs come from? The
offshore producers have been questioning their business models. Will they be there when you need
them? Consumers have survived without buying furniture for a long time. What will bring them
back? Many brands are disappearing.
The furniture industry needs to reject the old formulas that no longer get results, to replace
the old dogmas that have lost their meaning, to refuse to settle for mediocrity, and to insist on
world-class performance. It’s the only way to survive.
This report was produced by Anderson Bauman Tourtellot Vos (ABTV), a turnaround
management firm headquartered in Greensboro, NC, in collaboration with Michael K.
Dugan, author of The Furniture Wars: How America Lost a Fifty Billion Dollar Industry
and Chair of the Business School at Lenoir-Rhyne University in Hickory, NC. Mr. Dugan
advises ABTV on matters relating to the furniture industry.
The tables found on pages 10-14 of this report were contributed by Mann, Armistead &
Epperson and Furniture/Today.
For questions or more information about this report, contact:
Peter Tourtellot
Managing Director
Anderson Bauman Tourtellot Vos
230 North Elm St., Suite 1650
Greensboro, NC 27402
p: 336.275.9110
e-mail: ptourtellot@ABTV.com
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