go transit feasibility study

Transcription

GO TRANSIT FEASIBILITY STUDY
FINAL REPORT
Prepared for the City of Kawartha Lakes
By
APRIL 2013
GO Transit Feasibility Study
FINAL REPORT – April 2013
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................... I
1. INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................1
1.1
Study Context ............................................................................................................................... 1
1.2
Study Objective ............................................................................................................................. 2
1.3
Study Scope .................................................................................................................................. 2
2. STUDY AREA ................................................................................................................................2
2.1
Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 2
2.3
Comparison of Service Areas ........................................................................................................ 4
2.4
Existing Transit Service ................................................................................................................. 5
3. EXISTING AND FUTURE TRAVEL DEMAND (TTS) .............................................................................5
3.1
Existing Travel Demand (2006) ..................................................................................................... 5
3.2
Peterborough/Kawartha Lakes Travel Demand ........................................................................... 8
3.3
School Trip Travel Demand ......................................................................................................... 11
3.4
Fleming College Survey Results .................................................................................................. 12
3.5
Park and Ride Survey .................................................................................................................. 13
3.5.1
Passenger Survey ........................................................................................................... 14
4. TRANSIT IMPROVEMENT OPTIONS .............................................................................................15
4.1
Development and Preliminary Screening of Options ................................................................. 15
4.3
Service Level/Schedules.............................................................................................................. 19
4.4
Potential Passenger Demand...................................................................................................... 20
5. OPTION DISCUSSION ..................................................................................................................25
6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................28
APPENDICES
Appendix A
Appendix B
Appendix C
Transit Schedules
Potential Transit Service Schedules
Fleming College GO Transit Survey – Summary Report
Page i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This study has been undertaken to assess the feasibility of providing improved transit services within the
City of Kawartha Lakes. In particular, the study reviewed the implications for initiating a new GO Bus
service between Lindsay and the GO Rail line in Oshawa in south Durham. The study also reviewed the
potential and implications for initiating a bus service between Lindsay and Peterborough.
The findings and conclusions of the assessment are summarized as follows:
1. The current population of the City of Kawartha Lakes is approximately 73,200 with approximately
20,300 residing within the Town of Lindsay. Over the last five years there has been a decline in
population in the City of Kawartha Lakes area surrounding Lindsay while the Town itself has
increased in population. The City of Kawartha Lakes Official Plan, 2011, predicts a growth in
population to 100,000 by 2031 with approximately half of the growth taking place within the Town
of Lindsay.
2. The Fleming College Lindsay campus currently has an enrolment of approximately 1500 students
and is expected to grow over the next few years.
3. The GO Bus service initiated to Peterborough in 2009 has experienced reasonable success and has
reached the forecast ridership based on available 2011 counts. At this ridership level the cost
recovery is approximately 57%. (based on GO passenger figures and costs)
4. Based on the Transportation for Tomorrow Survey (TTS) data for 2001 and 2006, travel demand
between Peterborough and the City of Kawartha Lakes (including Lindsay on its own) and Toronto
has declined. Travel demand between Peterborough and overall the City of Kawartha Lakes has
increased while travel between Lindsay and Durham decreased slightly. Note that 2011 TTS data has
not been made available to date.
5. In 2006, over 21,000 trips were made between City of Kawartha Lakes and the Region of Durham.
Of these trips nearly 6300 were related to Lindsay proper and of those nearly 2100 travelled to/from
lower Durham (south of Rossland Rd.)
6. Over 4300 trips were made between the City of Kawartha Lakes and the City of Toronto of which
approximately 1000 were related to the Town of Lindsay. The majority of these trips were to/from
downtown Toronto and south of Highway 401 between Scarborough and Etobicoke.
7. Based on past trends, travel between the City of Kawartha Lakes and Toronto and lower Durham is
likely to see limited if any growth and could decline further. This could be confirmed when the 2011
TTS travel statistics become available.
8. Based on TTS statistics as well as data collected during the study, there is significant latent demand
for transit services in the City.
9. Four transit service options were reviewed. The performance for all of the options is reasonable
with revenue cost ratios ranging from 38% to 75%.
10. Of the two GO Transit options considered to provide service between Lindsay and the Lakeshore GO
Rail line, Option 2, the weekday extension of the Port Perry service via Highways 7A and 35,
performs best given the lower cost of the service. However, this option would be less attractive to
Page E-i
potential passengers than the direct service offered by Option 1 due to the extended travel time of
the routing. A new weekend service could attract additional passengers on the portion of the route
south of Port Perry.
11. The Option 1 service, direct to Oshawa GO Station (Figure E1), indicates reasonable performance
with basic service.
12. GO Transit should be formally requested to consider the implementation of the Option 1 basic
service. If the response is negative, the City could consider the implementation of Option 3, the
shuttle service to the Clarington North P&R lot, as a precursor to future GO Transit service.
13. Option 4, the service between Lindsay and Peterborough, is meant to serve a latent demand for
such a connection. In addition to general demand for travel in this corridor, this has been confirmed
by the survey of Fleming College students. There is potential for the excess costs to be shared with
the City of Peterborough and/or Fleming College.
Page E-ii
1.
Introduction
1.1
Study Context
The City of Kawartha Lakes wishes to examine the feasibility and potential for improving transit
throughout the municipality and beyond including enhanced links to the Greater Toronto and Hamilton
area.
At present, the nearest access to GO Transit service for residents of the City of Kawartha Lakes is the
Clarington North Park and Ride lot located at Highway 35, north of Highway 115 just south of the hamlet
of Pontypool. This lot is currently served by the Peterborough GO Transit Route No. 88 operating from
Trent University at the north end of the City to the Oshawa GO Station in western Oshawa south of
Highway 401.
GO Transit, a division of Metrolinx, operates an extensive network of interregional transit including
seven rail lines and numerous bus routes. The current GO Transit network serves the Greater Toronto
and Hamilton Area (GTHA) as well as the regional municipalities of Waterloo and Niagara, the cities of
Orangeville, Guelph, Barrie, and parts of Simcoe, Wellington, and Peterborough counties.
Since 2008, the expansion of the GO Transit network has been guided by two long term planning
documents:
a) The Big Move, 2008, which focuses primarily on improving transportation within the GTHA; and,
b) GO2020, 2008 which covers the existing GO Transit service area as well as the Greater Golden
Horseshoe area.
GO2020 committed GO Transit to consider service extensions to all urban growth centres outside the
GTHA. Since then, service has been extended to all urban growth centres except Brantford, which is
outside the GO Transit service area. (O.Reg. 189/09). GO Transit now serves twenty-four of the twentyfive urban growth centres designated by the Province in the Growth Plan for Greater Golden Horseshoe,
2006.
GO2020 and the Big Move plans did not identify the possibility of a new service to the City of Kawartha
Lakes as the municipality is outside of the GTHA and does not contain a designated urban growth centre.
In discussions with GO transit staff, it was suggested that all new routes must be “thoroughly examined
to determine its potential viability and suitability.” New routes must meet “a minimum level of
productivity (e.g. revenue-cost ratio, and, in future, passenger km/revenue kilometer) for the service
operating at a minimum frequency (e.g. 30 minute headways for peak period, peak direction service)
over a period of at least two hours.”
Page 1
1.2
Study Objective
The primary objective of this study is to examine the potential for improving transit throughout the City
of Kawartha Lakes and beyond. This includes a review of enhanced interregional links to the Greater
Toronto and Hamilton area through the provision a new GO service between the City of Kawartha Lakes
and the Lakeshore GO Rail line as well as a connection between Lindsay and Peterborough.
1.3
Study Scope
To determine the feasibility of any improved transit service the study addresses the following:
• Potential ridership;
• Required levels of service (frequency, span of service);
• Optimal routing and stop locations;
• Location of required layover and bus driver facilities;
• Location of any supporting infrastructure; and,
• An analysis of potential costs and revenues for the service.
2.
Study Area
2.1
Overview
The study area focuses on the City of Kawartha Lakes, City of Peterborough, Peterborough County, the
Region of Durham and the City of Toronto. Connections to other municipalities outside of the study
area were considered as deemed appropriate. (See Figure 1)
2.2
Background
Consideration of improved transit services within the City of Kawartha Lakes and to other surrounding
municipalities was brought about following the introduction of GO Transit service from the City of
Peterborough to the GO Oshawa Rail Station in 2009.
The Peterborough service provides 10 weekday trips and 6 Sat/Sun weekend trips in each direction from
Trent University to the Oshawa GO Rail Station. The route operates on local streets within
Peterborough and via Highways 115/401 to the Oshawa GO Station and serves a number of park and
ride lots along the way including south Peterborough, Cavan/Millbrook, Clarington North (Highway 35)
and Clarington (Highway 2).
Page 2
Total ridership averages approximately 275 passenger per week day and 255 passengers on weekend
days. (Feb. 2011) The daily riderhip is comparable to the ridership estimate developed in the feasibility
report prepared in 2006 even though the demand was based on a more frequent service and on
projected travel growth between Peterborough and Toronto which has not occurred. In fact, travel
demand between the two centres is declining based on the TTS data for 2001 and 2006.
The City of Kawartha Lakes, formed in 2001, is an amalgamation of the communities of Victoria County.
The large region is centred on the Town of Lindsay, the largest municipality in the City. The overall
population for the City is approximately 73,000 (2011 census) with approximately 20,000 people
residing in the Town of Lindsay. This compares to approximately 135 000 in the County of Peterborough
of which approximately 78,000 live in the City of Peterborough.
Page 3
In terms of age distribution, approximately 20% of Peterborough residents are over the age of 65 while
in Lindsay that figure is over 25%.
2.3
Comparison of Service Areas
The Peterborough GO service terminates within the City of Peterborough but also draws from the whole
of Peterborough County. Similarly, a proposed service to the City of Kawartha Lakes would focus on the
Town of Lindsay but draw from the passenger demand from the City as a whole. The following provides
a comparison of the two service areas and their growth in population between 2001 and 2011.
Table 2.1 illustrates that the Town of Lindsay has approximately one quarter the population of the City
of Peterborough. The growth in population for both municipalities for the last ten years has been about
one percent annually. However, for the remaining area of City of Kawartha Lakes and the County of
Peterborough, while population grew between 2001and 2006, it declined between 2006 and 2011.
Table 2.1 - POPULATION GROWTH
2001
2006
Growth
%
Annual
Grth %
2011
Growth
%
Annual
Grth %
Kawartha Lakes
(incl. Lindsay)
69,179
74,561
5,382
7.78%
1.54%
73,214
-1,347
1.81%
0.35%
Kawartha Lakes
(w/o Lindsay)
51,422
55,200
3,778
7.35%
1.40%
52,860
-2,340
4.24%
-0.88%
Town of
Lindsay
17,757
19,361
1,604
9.03%
1.80%
20,354
993
5.13%
1.00%
Peterborough
County (incl.
City)
125,856
133,080
7,224
5.74%
1.15%
134,933
1,853
1.39%
0.28%
Peterborough
County (w/o
City)
53,856
57,674
3,818
7.09%
1.40%
56,235
-1,439
2.50%
-0.50%
City of
Peterborough
72,000
75,406
3,406
4.73%
0.90%
78,698
3,292
4.37%
0.86%
Origin: Statistics Canada
Page 4
2.4
Existing Transit Service
Can-Ar Coach provides bus service in the form of one trip each way between Toronto and Haliburton
through Lindsay. The adult fare for trips between Lindsay and to Toronto is $34.50 per trip.
Local transit provides service within the Town, 6 days per week between 7 am and 7 pm.
No transit service is provided from Lindsay on Highway 35 south to Highway 115/401 and Oshawa GO
Station.
In the area, Greyhound provides 8 trips between Peterborough and Toronto, 7 days per week at a
standard cost of $18.50 per trip. Various fares are available ranging from $12.05 to $22.50.
Current schedules for the above services are attached in Appendix A.
GO Transit provides 10 trips weekdays between Trent University and Oshawa GO Station and 6 trips
Saturdays, Sunday and Holidays. The standard adult fare from Trent University to Oshawa is $12.10 and
$16.90 to Union Station. Various fare category discounts are available.
3.
3.1
Existing and Future Travel Demand (TTS)
Existing Travel Demand (2006)
To assist in the development of potential ridership for a new transit service originating in Lindsay, an
analysis was undertaken using the 2006 Transportation for Tomorrow survey results. The following
Tables 3.1 and 3.2, provide a comparison for trips to/from the City of Kawartha Lakes, mainly Lindsay,
and the City and County of Peterborough. (The 2011 TTS results have not been made available to date)
Trips to Lower Durham (south of Rossland Road) are also shown since proximity to the GO service
should have an impact on trip generation/attraction to any service.
From a County and City perspective, Peterborough County generates nearly 97% more trips than the
City of Kawartha Lakes with only 78% greater population.
The tables also illustrate that the greatest travel demand, other than local area trips for both
Peterborough County/City and the City of Kawartha Lakes/ Town of Lindsay, is to/from Durham Region
with a secondary demand to/from the City of Toronto.
Page 5
Table 3.1 – 2006 ALL DAY REGIONAL TRIP GENERATION
Region
From
Kawartha
Lakes
2,264
10,512
1,822
613
126
168
To
Kawartha
Lakes
2,078
10,903
1,950
518
145
274
From
Peterborough
County
1,701
5,897
690
590
173
93
To
Peterborough
County
1,722
6,048
772
707
165
159
1
2
3
4
5
6
Toronto
Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
98
99
Niagara
Waterloo
Guelph
Wellington
Orangeville
Barrie
Simcoe
Kawartha Lakes
Peterborough City
Peterborough County
Orillia
Dufferin
Brantford
Brant
External
Unknown
126
248
35
61
0
236
1,110
104,114
6,400
1,854
602
42
0
0
1,639
0
38
157
0
17
21
324
1,136
104,114
6,359
1,850
584
46
17
0
1,592
0
87
71
16
20
16
82
457
8,210
192,371
31,337
0
17
42
0
4,166
0
52
91
16
60
33
113
454
8,254
192,483
58,774
0
17
79
0
3,925
0
TOTAL
131,972
132,123
246,036
273,924
3,433
3,432
3,108
3,038
Lower Durham
32.7%
31.5%
52.7%
50.2%
Note: City of Kawartha Lakes includes Lindsay trips and Peterborough County includes
City of Peterborough trips.
Origin:2006 TTS
Page 6
Table 3.2 – 2006 ALL DAY REGIONAL TRIPS
Region
1
2
3
4
5
6
Toronto
Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
98
99
From City of To
City
of From Town To Town
of Lindsay
of Lindsay
Peterborough
Peterborough
1,058
3,632
467
406
133
0
1,149
3,783
418
331
165
47
557
2,972
472
135
32
109
488
3,297
505
132
32
92
Niagara
Waterloo
Guelph
Wellington
Orangeville
Barrie
Simcoe
Kawartha Lakes
Peterborough City
Peterborough County
Orillia
Dufferin
Brantford
Brant
External
Unknown
18
16
16
20
16
82
360
6,359
164,935
27,548
0
17
0
0
1,716
0
36
36
16
20
16
96
323
6,400
164,935
27,436
0
17
0
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
0
86
186
59,730
1,850
617
19
0
0
0
442
0
0
0
0
0
21
69
162
59,628
1,864
561
19
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
206,799
205,224
67,224
66,870
1,877
1,858
996
1,086
52%
49%
34%
33%
Lower Durham
Origin: 2006 TTS
Page 7
3.2
Peterborough/Kawartha Lakes Travel Demand
Table 3.3 below summarizes the results of the TTS survey for the years 2001 and 2006 for trip
generation from Peterborough, the City of Kawartha Lakes and Lindsay in particular. Although it should
be mentioned that the sample size of the surveys is relatively small and may be prone to skewing, the
data does reveal some interesting information about trip demand in the defined study areas.
Table 3.3 - PETERBOROUGH /KAWARTHA LAKES
TRIP GENERATION
Peterborough to Toronto
Toronto to Peterborough
2001
1,754
1,825
2006
1,058
1,149
Growth %
-696
-39.7%
-676
-37.0%
Peterborough County to Toronto
Toronto to Peterborough County
1,012
1,068
643
573
-369
-495
-36.5%
-46.3%
Lindsay to Toronto
Toronto to Lindsay
581
786
557
488
-24
-298
-4.1%
-37.9%
Kawartha Lakes to Toronto w/o Lindsay
Toronto to Kawartha Lakes w/o Lindsay
1,725
1,851
1,707
1,590
-18
-261
-1.0%
-14.1%
Peterborough to Lower Durham
Lower Durham to Peterborough
1,349
1,386
1,877
1,858
528
472
39.1%
34.1%
Lindsay to Lower Durham
Lower Durham to Lindsay
1,174
1,112
996
1,086
-178
-26
-15.2%
-2.3%
Kawartha Lakes to Lower Durham w/o Lindsay
Lower Durham to Kawartha Lakes w/o Lindsay
2,113
2,386
2,437
2,346
324
-40
15.3%
-1.7%
Peterborough County to Lower Durham
Lower Durham to Peterborough County
1,113
1,200
1,231
1,180
118
-20
10.6%
-1.7%
Origin: 2001 and 2006 TTS
The figures indicate that travel between Peterborough and Toronto and Lindsay and Toronto has
declined significantly. Travel between Lindsay and Lower Durham has declined while travel between
Peterborough and Lower Durham has increased. Trips from Peterborough County and the City of
Kawartha Lakes (w/o Lindsay) to Lower Durham have increased while trips from Lower Durham to those
areas have decreased slightly.
Page 8
The following tables provide a greater breakdown of the trips to and from the City of Kawartha Lakes
and Lindsay, in particular, for trip destinations in Toronto and Durham.
Toronto Trips
Table 3.4A - Trip Purpose - Kawartha Lakes to Toronto Trips
%
Lindsay
to
Toronto
%
Kawartha
Lakes
w/o
Lindsay
934
17
1,142
118
42.2%
0.8%
51.7%
5.3%
222
17
263
54
39.9%
3.1%
47.3%
9.7%
712
0
879
64
43.0%
0.0%
53.1%
3.9%
2,211
100.0%
556
100.0%
1,655
100.0%
Trip Purpose
Kawartha
Lakes to
Toronto
Work
School
Discretionary
Other
Total
%
Table 3.4B - Trip Purpose - Kawartha Lakes from Toronto
Trips
%
Lindsay
from
Toronto
%
Kawartha
Lakes
w/o
Lindsay
953
0
923
202
45.9%
0.0%
44.4%
9.7%
205
0
212
71
42.0%
0.0%
43.4%
14.5%
748
0
711
131
47.0%
0.0%
44.7%
8.2%
2,078
100.0%
488
100.0%
1,590
100.0%
Trip Purpose
Kawartha
Lakes
from
Toronto
Work
School
Discretionary
Other
Total
%
Origin: 2006 TTS
As indicated work trips account for between 40-47% of all trips to and from Toronto. School trips are
minimal at 3% to Toronto but 0% in the reverse direction. As illustrated, discretionary trips also account
for a high percentage of overall trip demand and other trips account for the remainder.
Page 9
Durham Region Trips
3.5A - Trip Purpose - Kawartha Lakes to Durham Trips
%
Kawartha
Lakes
w/o
Lower
Durham
%
Trip Purpose
Kawartha
Lakes to
Durham
%
Lindsay
to
Lower
Durham
Work
School
Discretionary
Other
4,966
239
4,418
889
47.2%
2.3%
42.0%
8.5%
606
0
265
125
60.8%
0.0%
26.6%
12.6%
4,360
239
4,153
764
45.8%
2.5%
43.6%
8.0%
Total
10,512
100.0%
996
100.0%
9,516
100.0%
3.5B - Trip Purpose - Kawartha Lakes from Durham Trips
%
Lindsay
from
Lower
Durham
%
Kawartha
Lakes
w/o
Lower
Durham
5,002
171
4,562
1,168
45.9%
1.6%
41.8%
10.7%
624
0
269
193
57.5%
0.0%
24.8%
17.8%
4,378
171
4,293
975
44.6%
1.7%
43.7%
9.9%
10,903
100.0%
1,086
100.0%
9,817
100.0%
Trip Purpose
Kawartha
Lakes
from
Durham
Work
School
Discretionary
Other
Total
%
Origin: 2006 TTS
Similarly for Durham trips, work makes up between 40 and 45% of the demand except for trips to
Lindsay where work accounts for nearly 60% of all trips. There are no school trips to/from lower
Durham but school trips to/from the remainder of Durham Region account for 1.5-2.5% of all trips. The
zone containing Durham College and OUIT attracted 35 or about 15% of the total school trips from the
City of Kawartha Lakes. Again, discretionary trips account for a high percentage of total trips and other
trips account for the remainder.
Page 10
3.3
School Trip Travel Demand
Both Peterborough and Lindsay are centres for higher level education facilities that draw students from
outside the communities. In the case of Peterborough, both Trent University and Fleming College have
established facilities. Lindsay is also the home of a Fleming College campus. In addition, in south
Durham, the Ontario University Institute of Technology and Durham College have campuses within an
easy bus ride of Oshawa GO station.
The current Peterborough GO service originates at Trent University and carries a significant number of
students on a daily and weekly basis to and from the University. In determining potential demand for
service between Lindsay and the Lakeshore GO line in Oshawa, information was collected on the current
student populations for all of the education facilities. Table 3.6, below, summarizes the information
collected.
Table 3.6 – Potential Student Demand
Students from Students
Full Time Lindsay/
from
Peterborough* Durham
Students
Facility
Fleming College – Lindsay*
1,575
8%
8%
Fleming College – Peterborough*
4,325
10%
9%
Trent University – Peterborough
7,000
100 (4 in
residence)
NA
Durham College – Oshawa
8,000
67
NA
OUIT – Oshawa
9,000
20-25 per year
80-100%
commute
NA
*NOTE: Students attending Frost Campus living in Peterborough or attending
Sutherland campus living in Lindsay. (From student survey)
Following the inquiry to Fleming College re student demand for bus service, the administration
undertook a travel survey of students at both the Lindsay (Frost) and Peterborough (Sutherland)
campuses. The full results of the survey are included as Appendix C of this report. A summary of the
results is outlined below.
Page 11
3.4
Fleming College Survey Results
Fleming College undertook a web based travel survey of travel demand for bus service between Lindsay
and Oshawa GO station and between Lindsay and Peterborough. The survey was emailed to all
registered students at both the Frost (Lindsay) and Sutherland (Peterborough) campuses and asked that
it be returned by a November 18, 2012 deadline. Over 600 valid surveys were returned. The following
Table 3.7 provides the highlights from the survey with regard to existing and potential travel demand.
Table 3.7 - Fleming Student Travel Survey
Student population
Survey Response
Percent response
Live in Durham during school
Commute from Durham*
Use GO service for commute
Currently use GO service Peterborough to Oshawa
Would use service Lindsay to
Oshawa
Currently travel between Lindsay
and Peterborough
Would use service if provided
between Lindsay and Peterborough
Lindsay
1,575
313
19.9%
Peterborough
4,325
289
6.7%
8.0%
18.0%
3.1%
9.0%
19.0%
2.9%
33.0%
56.0%
93.0%
58.0%#
62.0%
49.0%
77.0%
50.0%
NOTE:
*Discrepancy between living in and commuting from Durham.
# Irrational response, not used in any calculations
As might be expected there was a strong survey response from the Frost Campus in Lindsay since transit
service to and from points outside the area is virtually non-existent. Survey results suggest that:
•
•
•
•
•
8% of responding students currently commute from the Region of Durham to the Frost Campus
in Lindsay.
33% of responding Frost students make some use of the existing Peterborough GO service.
93% of responding Frost students would use a service from Lindsay to Oshawa GO station if
implemented.
62% of responding Frost students currently travel to/from Peterborough on occasion.
77% of responding Frost students would use a transit service between Lindsay and
Peterborough if implemented.
Page 12
In addition, of the 125 comments submitted with the student survey, 80 or 64% supported the
implementation of a bus service between Lindsay and Oshawa GO Station and 42 or 34% supported the
implementation of a transit service between Lindsay and Peterborough.
3.5
Park and Ride Survey
In order to assist in determining potential demand for a bus service, on November 15 and 22, 2012, a
field survey of designated park and ride lots was undertaken to identify the number of cars from the City
Kawartha Lakes and Lindsay, in particular. License plates were recorded for cars parked in each lot and
a trace was completed by the MTO using postal codes to determine residence of the vehicles. The
following Table 3.8 summarizes the findings of the survey.
Table 3.8 – Results of License Plate Trace Survey
Location
Oshawa GO Station
Newcastle P&R
Clarington N. P&R
Hwy 35/7A P&R
Lindsay P&R
Total
Trent University
Peterborough S. P&R
Cavan/Millbrook P&R
Total
Overall Total
Cars
1,591
31
16
4
23
1,665
KL
9
0
4
0
8
21
%
0.6%
0.0%
25.0%
0.0%
34.8%
1.3%
Lindsay
5
0
1
2
10
18
%
0.3%
0.0%
6.3%
50.0%
43.5%
1.1%
Total
14
0
5
2
18
39
%
0.9%
0.0%
31.3%
50.0%
78.3%
2.3%
70
80
47
197
0
0
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1
0
1
2
1.4%
0.0%
2.1%
1.0%
1
0
1
2
1.4%
0.0%
2.1%
1.0%
1,862
21
1.1%
20
1.1%
41
2.2%
The results of the survey suggest that there are a limited number of people from the City of Kawartha
Lakes currently taking advantage of the park and ride opportunities presented.
Page 13
3.5.1
Passenger Survey
In addition to the license plate trace, the opportunity was taken to interview some of the passengers
boarding the existing Peterborough GO bus. The following Table 3.9 summarizes the responses.
Table 3.9 - Bus Passenger Survey
Inbound
Outbound
Total
%
Trip purpose
Work
School
Other
Total
5
2
8
15
19
2
8
29
24
4
16
44
54.5%
9.1%
36.4%
100.0%
Origin
Peterborough
15
15
100.0%
24
2
3
29
92.3%
6.9%
10.3%
100.0%
6
3
6
15
40.0%
20.0%
40.0%
100.0%
23
2
3
1
29
23
2
3
1
29
79.3%
6.9%
10.3%
3.4%
100.0%
8
4
1
3
2
11
29
17
5
1
3
2
16
44
38.6%
11.4%
2.3%
6.8%
4.5%
36.4%
100.0%
Toronto
Oshawa
Other
Total
Destination
Toronto
Oshawa
Other
Total
24
2
3
29
6
3
6
15
Peterborough
Cavan
Newcastle
Lindsay via Clarington
Total
Commute Frequency
Irregular
Weekly
2 days per week
3 days per week
4 days per week
5 days per week
Total
9
1
0
0
0
5
15
Page 14
The results illustrate that over 50% of trips are for work purposes and 10% for school while the
remainder are discretionary trips. Forty percent (40%) of trips were destined to Toronto, 20% to
Durham and the remainder to other locations. Nearly 40% of trips were regular (5 days per week) as
well as irregular and the remaining 20% were occasional (1-4 times per week).
4.
4.1
Transit improvement Options
Development and Preliminary Screening of Options
The following are considered to be viable service routing options for improved transit service in the City
Kawartha Lakes. The focus of the improved service is to provide a connection from the City of Kawartha
Lakes to the Lakeshore GO rail service. In addition, consideration was also given to the provision of
service between Lindsay and Peterborough. The route options are shown on Figure 2.
Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station
Provide similar service to Peterborough route with direct service from downtown Lindsay to the Oshawa
GO station. (Carried Forward)
Lindsay to meet Peterborough service at Highway 35/115
Provide GO or private service from downtown Lindsay to meet all Peterborough route trips at existing
park and ride lot at Highway 35/115. (Carried Forward)
Lindsay to meet rerouted Peterborough service at Highway 35/7A
Provide GO or private service from downtown Lindsay to meet all Peterborough route trips rerouted via
Highway 7A to Highway 35 at existing park and ride lot at Highway 35/7A. (Eliminated)
Lindsay to meet service in Port Perry
Provide GO or private service from downtown Lindsay to meet all GO Transit Port Perry route trips in
downtown Port Perry. (Eliminated)
Extended Port Perry service to Lindsay
Extend current GO Transit Port Perry trips to downtown Lindsay. (Carried Forward)
Lindsay to Peterborough
Provide a service from downtown Lindsay to the Peterborough bus terminal. This route could be
provided as an addition to transit service in the region and also act as a connection to the existing GO
service to Oshawa GO Station. (Carried Forward)
Table 4.1 provides a high level screening of the options based on consideration of directness of route,
travel time, areas served, need to transfer, and diversion of existing passengers. Of the six options
outlined, three were carried forward as options to provide service to the existing GO Rail corridor. The
Page 15
fourth secondary option, providing service between Lindsay and Peterborough, was also carried forward
for evaluation.
All options serving Lindsay would be routed via Fleming College with a layover on William Street south
of Kent Street. A suitable layover location would be arranged with the City of Kawartha Lakes.
Page 16
Figure 2
Page 17
Table 4.1 - PRELIMINARY SCREENING OF OPTIONS
OPTION
Distance
(est.)
Option 1
From downtown
Lindsay to Oshawa GO
81km
Station
Est. time Schedule Dist. To GO Time to GO
Comments
61 min
plus 4
stops
86 min
81 km
70 min
30 min
plus 2
stops
40 min
81 km
Integrate with existing Peterborough GO route with a transfer at Clarington P&R. Interim
70 min
solution requiring separate carrier. Transfer requirement a deterrent.
plus transfer
Carry Forward
Direct GO route from Lindsay to Oshawa GO with no transfers. Pick up at park and ride
Yes as Option 1
locations in Lindsay, Hwy 7A/35, Pontypool Hwy 35/115, Bowmanville.
Option 2
From downtown
Lindsay to Hwy 35/115 35km
Yes as Option 3
Option 3
From downtown
Lindsay to
Peterborough Terminal 45 km
56 min
60 min
NA
10%
Option 4
From downtown
Lindsay to Port Perry
48km
41 min
2 stop
45 min
145 min
Integrate with existing Peterborough GO route with a transfer at Peterborough bus
terminal. Longer route taking passengers out of their way. Not viable as connection to
GO rail network. Could be viable as additional route to provide service between Lindsay
and Peterborough for shopping and school trips.
Yes as a
secondary route
as Option 4
plus transfer
76 km
Integrate with existing Port Perry GO route with a transfer in Port Perry to Whitby GO.
85 min
Longer route with separate carrier. Transfer required a deterrent.
plus transfer
No
Option 5
From Peterborough to
Oshawa via Hwy 7A,
Hwy 35, Hwy 115
94 km
Option 6
Extend Port Perry GO
service to Lindsay
76 km
71 min
plus 4
stops
100min.
94 km
80 min
Estimated ten percent plus additional travel time for Peterborough route. Integrate with
short route using separate carrier from Lindsay. Consider as an interim solution.
Transfer requirement for Lindsay passengers a deterrant. Misses Cavan park and ride
but serves Cavan and Bethany directly. Not favoured by GO Transit due to impact of
increased travel time (plus 10 min) on existing passengers.
86 min
90 min
76 km
86 min
Cheaper alternative to direct connection to Oshawa. 6-7 trips per day. Similar to Option
4 . No transfer required.
No
Yes as Option 2
Page 18
4.3
Service Level/Schedules
The City of Kawartha Lakes set a minimum level of weekday service to be provided for a GO service
between Lindsay and the Oshawa GO Station as follows:
•
•
•
•
3 peak direction trips in each rush period
1 off peak direction trip in each rush period
1 midday trip in each direction
1 evening trip in each direction
The following service options were considered for evaluation.
Option 1 - Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station
Two service options were developed for this alternative:
1) Minimum level providing 6 weekday trips per day in each direction per the defined scope of
work. Weekend and holiday trips are optional.
2) Greater level of service similar to Peterborough service with 10 weekday trips in each direction
and 6 trips per direction on Saturdays, Sundays and Holidays.
Option 2 - Extend Port Perry GO service to Lindsay
This option builds on the GO service that terminates in Port Perry on weekdays. Based on the current
schedule there is no opportunity to extend weekend trips as the service is all routed through Port Perry
to Beaverton.
1) Seven (7) existing southbound trips are extended north to Lindsay via Highways 7A and 35. Five
(5) existing northbound trips are extended to Lindsay and one new trip is added in the am to
provide off peak directional service.
2) Add new weekend service similar to Peterborough service operating from Whitby GO Station via
Port Perry to Lindsay.
Option 3 - Provide separate service from Lindsay to meet Peterborough service at Clarington North
P&R (Highways 35/115)
1) Meet a minimum number of trips (6) of the Peterborough service in each direction. Weekend
service optional.
2) Meet all of the Peterborough trips in each direction both daily and on Saturday, Sunday and
Holidays.
Page 19
Option 4 – Provide a separate service between downtown Lindsay and Peterborough Bus Terminal
stopping at Fleming College and designated stops along Lansdowne Street.
1) Bi-hourly service between 7:00am and 7:00pm. Weekend and holiday service is optional.
Connects Lindsay to downtown Peterborough as well as connecting two Fleming campuses.
Potential service schedules for the options are included in the Appendix B of this report.
4.4
Potential Passenger Demand
As noted earlier, the longer term ridership estimates developed for the Peterborough service in 2006
resulted in figures very close to the ridership demands of November 2011 provided by GO Transit even
though travel demand between Peterborough and Toronto has declined. For this reason and the fact
that there are demographic similarities between Peterborough and Lindsay, it was considered
reasonable to use the Peterborough report methodology as a base the Kawartha Lake estimates.
The following Table 4.2 provides a comparison of demographics for the Cities of Peterborough and
Kawartha Lakes. As illustrated, Lindsay has a slightly higher average household size, a higher average
age and a higher percentage of trips destined to/from Toronto and Durham.
Characteristic
Table 4.2
City of
City of Kawartha
Peterborough
Lakes
2.4 pers.
2.5 pers.
42.8 yrs
48.4 yrs.
86%
89%
Average Household Size1
Median Age1
Percentage Car
Transportation1
Daily Toronto Trips2
0.5%
0.8%
Daily Durham Region
1.8%
4.4%
Trips2
1
Source: Statistics Canada Catalogue No.92-591-XWE, Ottawa, 2007
2
Source: 2006 TTS Survey
Town of Lindsay
2.7 pers.
47.6 yrs.
NA
0.8%
4.7%
The estimates outlined later are total daily trips to and from Lindsay. For this study, Lindsay was chosen
as the focus for transit trip generation for the City of Kawartha Lakes region since it is assumed that any
demonstration of current and future need for transit will depend on the development in this area. The
population of Lindsay has increased by 5% from 2006 to 2011 while the wider City of Kawartha Lakes
population has decreased. Also the student population within the City is expected to grow over the next
few years and, based on the student survey, would contribute significantly to the transit ridership share.
A survey of students at Fleming College – Frost Campus in Lindsay was performed during the fall of
2012. The survey was web based and the student body was notified via e-mail. It is unclear if the
respondents were representative of an unbiased sample of the student population since, given the
Page 20
nature of web based surveys, the respondents may be biased towards students with a vested interest in
having the service. Therefore a linear expansion rate for the sample relative to the entire student
population is not appropriate in this instance. For the purposes of this study it was assumed that the
respondents to the survey represent most of the students who would potentially use the transit
connection between Lindsay and Oshawa. Therefore the survey results were taken as a complete
sample of all students who have some interest in the transit service and the results were not scaled to
the total student population at the college.
The Frost Campus is one of the major trip generators within the Lindsay area and will likely account for
many of the transit trips on a day to day basis. However, from the results of the survey it is clear that
most students would prefer to travel at frequencies less than 2 trips per week rather than daily. This
could result in large day-to-day variations in demand for transit capacity with Sunday and Friday being
the peak days since students would tend to be travelling to and from the campus around the week-end
period. Any provision of a transit service connection should take these travel characteristics into
account.
Ridership estimates were developed for the four route options below:

Lindsay – Oshawa, a GO Transit connection from Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station with stops at the
park and ride facilities along the way. Two levels of service were considered: a basic service
with 6 trips per day and a full service similar to the Peterborough route with 10 trips per day.

An extension of existing GO Transit Port Perry service providing service from Lindsay to the
Whitby GO Station. Extending the existing Port Perry trips was considered a basic service. The
demand could reach the direct to Oshawa full service estimate but may require the addition of
more trips.

A shuttle service connection from Lindsay to the Clarington North Park and Ride lot at Highway
35/115 where users can connect to the existing Peterborough-Oshawa GO bus service. The
shuttle service would meet all trips of the Peterborough GO service but, due to the transfer,
could attract a lower demand.

A separate service between downtown Lindsay to the Peterborough bus terminal in downtown
Peterborough. Demand for a bi-hourly service is shown as a range from basic to full service
although only the one level of service is considered.
The Peterborough service experiences a large increase in ridership on Fridays compared to the other
days of the week. It is believed that this increased Friday demand is mainly a result of the significant
portion of the student population who stays in Peterborough during the week and travel to their
permanent place of residence for week-ends.
Page 21
A similar trend of increased ridership on Fridays is expected for a transit connection between Lindsay
and Oshawa since Lindsay has a significant student population as well. A survey of the students at
Fleming College - Frost Campus indicate that a high percentage of transit trips to and from the area are
irregular trips. Of the students surveyed 9% indicated they would use a transit service between Lindsay
and Oshawa GO Station 5 or more times a week or 3-4 times per week. 43% would use the service
between 1-2 trips per week and 38% less than 1 trip per week.
Transit trip ridership estimates are summarized in Table 4.3 below with additional details in the attached
Table 4.4. These estimates are for average typical week-day. Based on the Peterborough ridership
patterns, consideration must be given to the higher average trip ridership on Fridays. In some cases,
extra buses may be required to accommodate the higher demand.
Table 4.3 – Ridership Demand Estimates
Lindsay to Oshawa GO Connection
Full Service
Basic Service
Port Perry Extension
Upper Limit
Lower Limit
2013
185
2015
197
2031
270
146
157
215
185
146
197
157
270
215
181
146
247
201
94
130
70
98
Shuttle To Clarington North Park and Ride
Upper Limit
169
Lower Limit
136
Lindsay to Peterborough Connection
Upper Limit
88
Lower Limit
66
It is estimated that ridership on a Lindsay to Oshawa GO route would range from 146 to 185 passenger
during the early years of operation. This estimate is also considered reasonable for the extension of
service from Port Perry given the limited options available to Lindsay residents and students.
The shuttle service demand is expected to be somewhat less given the introduction of a transfer at the
Clarington North P&R lot. However, similar to the Port Perry extension, the lack of available options
would still make the shuttle service an attractive travel alternative.
On weekends, the Peterborough GO demand is 93% of that experienced on weekdays. For all options of
the Lindsay service, 75% of the weekday demand is considered a more conservative estimate and is
used in the revenue calculations.
The daily demand for service on a Lindsay to Peterborough service is expected to range from 70 to100
passengers per day based on resident and student travel desires. A portion of this demand is based on
Page 22
attracting half of the current bus plus GO Rail ridership from the 2006 TTS data. If these numbers failed
to materialize the over range could be lower. However, since no transit service currently exists in this
corridor, latent demand could be higher particularly for students travelling between the campus
locations. As noted earlier, the student survey numbers have not been factored up to the entire student
body population.
4.5
GO Transit Comments on Ridership Estimate
GO Transit reviewed the feasibility report and provided some comments on the ridership projections
indicating that they believed certain of the numbers to be somewhat high. A further review of the
background information resulted in a slight reduction in the forecast demand for the student travel.
However, since the regular demand forecast was based on the previous Peterborough feasibility study
methodology that had provided a forecast very close to the current demand, it was decided to leave
those figures unchanged. It is believed that the forecast range of ridership covers the possibility of not
reaching the projected levels.
Page 23
Table 4.4 - Ridership Estimate Details
Base Demand
Full Service
Shuttle Connection to Clarington Park and Ride
Direct Connection to Oshawa GO Station
Daily Trips
Daily Peak Period Work
Trips To/From Downtown
Toronto
GO Rail To Downtown
Transit+GO Rail To
Downtown
Bus
Other
Lindsay to South Durham
Trips
Trips
Total
Student transit trips from
Frost College
** % Estimated
2031
Switch to GO Bus
Service
2013
2015
2031
to Switch to GO
Bus Service
*** % Estimated to
2013
2015
2031
Switch to GO Bus
Service
2013
2015
2031
2006
2011
2015
2031
13
103
14
108
15
117
20
161
22
50
3
56
3
60
4
80
22.0
50.0
3
56
3
60
4
80
18.7
42.5
3
48
3
51
4
68
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
34
66
37
36
69
40
39
75
55
53
103
100
50
5
38
19
4
41
20
4
55
27
5
100.0
50.0
5.0
38
19
4
41
20
4
55
27
5
100.0
42.5
4.3
38
16
3
41
17
3
55
23
4
50.0
0.0
2.3
19
0
2
20
0
2
27
0
2
2082
2186
2366
3248
1
23
24
32
1.0
23
24
32
0.9
19
21
28
0.0
0
0
0
3714
2333
3900
2450
4221
2652
5795
3640
0
0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
1.0
41
43
58
N/A
14
Total
42
185
46
197
66
270
Total
42
185
46
197
66
270
Total
42
169
46
181
66
247
Total
27
88
29
94
42
130
Base Demand
Basic Service
Daily Trips
Daily Peak Period Work
Trips To/From Downtown
Toronto
GO Rail To Downtown
Transit+GO Rail To
Downtown
Bus
Other
Lindsay to South Durham
Trips
Trips
Total
Student transit trips from
Frost College
* % Estimated to
% Estimated to
Switch to GO Bus
Service
2013
2015
Direct Connection to Oshawa GO Station
Shuttle Connection to Clarington Park and Ride
* % Estimated to
** % Estimated to
*** % Estimated to
2006
2011
2015
2031
% Estimated to
Switch to GO Bus
Service
13
103
14
108
15
117
20
161
17
33
2
37
3
39
3
53
17.0
33.0
2
37
3
39
3
53
14.5
28.1
2
32
2
33
3
45
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
34
66
37
36
69
40
39
75
55
53
103
100
39
1
38
14
1
41
15
1
55
21
1
100.0
39.0
1.0
38
14
1
41
15
1
55
21
1
100.0
33.2
0.9
38
12
1
41
13
1
55
18
1
50.0
0.0
2.3
19
0
2
20
0
2
27
0
2
2082
2186
2366
3248
0.5
11
12
16
0.5
11
12
16
0.4
10
10
14
0.0
0
0
0
3714
2333
3900
2450
4221
2652
5795
3640
0
0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0.0
0
0
0
0.5
18
19
26
N/A
14
Total
42
146
46
157
66
215
Total
42
146
46
157
66
215
Total
42
136
46
146
66
201
Total
27
66
29
70
42
98
2013
2015
2031
Switch to GO Bus
Service
2013
2015
2031
Switch to GO Bus
Service
2013
2015
2031
Switch to GO Bus
Service
2013
2015
2031
N/A - not available
Source: 2006 TTS Survey
Population growth for Town of Lindsay 2006 to 2011 is around 5 percent, hence trips assumed to increased by this much as well over 2006
2.0% compounded year over year, since population for Lindsay in 2011 census is 20,300 and projected to grow to 30,000 by 2031
Based on student survey with no expansion factor
Source: GO Transit Service Extension to Peterborough Feasibility Study, September 2006
* The Port Perry Extension is assumed to provide similar travel time and convenience to connect to the Lakeshore trains when compared to the Lindsay - Oshawa connection and as a result the estimated ridership is assumed to the similar.
**
For shuttle connection to GO Bus Line - assumed 10 minute increase in trip time over direct connection to Oshawa GO Station to dismbark, wait, embark on connecting line, i.e. about 15% increase in travel time and decrease in utility of service. Assume decrease of similar
proportion in ridership switch
***
For connection to GO Bus Line at Peterborough - assumed 40 minute increase in trip time over direct connection to Oshawa GO Station involves joining transit in Lindsay, travel to Peterborough, dismbark, wait, embark on connecting line, i.e. about 45% increase in travel
time. This is a significant decrease in the utility and convenience of the service for travellers going southwest to Durham and Toronto, it is unlikely that everyday travellers will want to go east and connect to go southwesterly. The assumption is that there will be some switch of
current Lindsay to/from Peterborough trips to transit and some of the Frost Campus Students would also make use of this connection.
Page 24
5.
Option Discussion
The following section discusses the various route and service options and forecast performance. Table
5.1 provides a summary of estimated costs and revenues for the options.
Option 1 - Lindsay to Oshawa GO Station
This option provides a service to Oshawa GO Station comparable to the current GO service to
Peterborough. The service would operate from the existing Lindsay Transit terminal point in the
downtown area, serve the park and ride facilities on Highway 35 south of Highway 7, Highway
7A, Clarington North at Highway 35/115 and Newcastle at Highway 2 on its way to the Oshawa
GO Station. From a passenger point of view, this service would be the most attractive in that it
provides a direct and fast service to the Lakeshore GO service as well as providing good access
to lower Durham and its regional transit services.
The level of service could be tailored to the demand. However, the more frequent the service,
the more attractive to potential passengers. Weekend service is a definite plus given the
student demands and experience with the Peterborough route. Route performance would
range between 38% and 50% Rev/Cost ratio with weekend service included.
Option 2 - Extend Port Perry GO service to Lindsay
This option provides a more cost effective alternative from a service point of view by extending
the existing service from Port Perry. (unless additional full trips were added from Whitby GO
Station) However, while more cost effective, it would not be as attractive to potential
passengers. The service would be limited to the existing trips terminating at Port Perry and the
travel time to the Lakeshore GO rail service would be longer. The route would serve the Lindsay
P&R lot but none of the others along Highway 35 unless a new facility was constructed at
Highway 7A/35.
As mentioned, the level of service would be fixed based on the current Port Perry trips.
Currently, it would not be possible to provide weekend service unless additional trips were
added. For weekday service only, and assuming a range of ridership similar to the Oshawa
service, route performance would range between 60% and 75% Rev/Cost since the cost is based
on the extension of service beyond Port Perry only. Due to the longer trip time involved with
this service, it is likely to attract the lower limit of forecast passenger demand.
If weekend service was added and ridership demand was assumed to be 75% of total route
ridership, overall performance would range between 58% and 73% Rev/Cost.
Page 25
Option 3 - Provide separate service from Lindsay to meet Peterborough service at Clarington North l
P&R (Highways 35/115)
This option provides a shuttle service between downtown Lindsay and the Clarington North P&R
facility, at Highway 35/115, where it would meet the existing service trips of the Peterborough
GO bus route. Selection of this option is viewed as a precursor to implementation of a GO
service between Lindsay and Oshawa GO Station. It would provide a service that is not available
today and it would allow an evaluation of service demand prior to the implementation of a full
service by GO Transit. However, the introduction of a transfer mid route, no matter how
convenient, is a drawback to attracting full passenger potential.
This service would be subcontracted to a private transportation company at a lower cost than
GO Transit services. Based on the estimated passenger demand, performance would range
between 51% and 65% Rev/Cost including the weekend service. Cost to the City would range
from $110,000 to $157,000 annually depending on the passenger demands.
Option 4 – Provide a separate service between downtown Lindsay and Peterborough Bus Terminal
stopping at Fleming College and designated stops along Lansdowne Street.
This service is an additional option above and beyond those considered to connect the City of
Kawartha Lakes to the Lakeshore GO Rail line. It would serve latent demand for travel between
Lindsay and Peterborough, particularly for student travel generated by Fleming College and
Trent University. This service would be subcontracted to a private transportation company.
Based on the estimated passenger demand, performance would range between 43% and 57%
Rev/Cost, including the weekend service. Cost to the City would range from $82,000 to
$110,000 annually depending on the passenger demands. There is potential to share theses
costs with the City of Peterborough and/or Fleming College. However, each municipality has
policies regarding the operation of services outside the municipal boundaries that would need
to be addressed.
Page 26
Table 5.1 Route Performance
Option
Rev. Hrs. Cost/Hr. Ann Cost.
Pass.
Avg Fare Ann. Rev. Rev/Cost
/Day
Option 1 - Oshawa
Weekdays Full
with weekends 75% of pass.
Weekdays Basic
$1.28M
$1.76M
$845,363
$1.07M
185
140
145
110
$10.82
$10.11
$10.82
$10.11
$502,427
$672,744
$393,794
$534,476
40.8%
38.2%
54.8%
50.1%
Option 2 - Port Perry Whitby
Weekdays Upper Limit
Weekdays Lower Limit
$697,700
$919,788
$697,700
$919,788
185
140
145
110
10.82
10.11
10.82
10.11
$502,427
$672,744
$393,794
$534,476
74.7%
73.1%
59.4%
58.1%
$247,361
$325,517
$247,361
$325,517
170
125
135
100
$3.65
$3.40
$3.65
$3.40
$155,746
$214,348
$123,680
$168,098
63.0%
65.8%
50.0%
51.6%
$135,540
$191,700
$135,540
$191,700
90
65
65
50
$3.65
$3.40
$3.65
$3.40
$82,454
$109,400
$59,550
$81,822
60.8%
57.1%
43.9%
42.7%
Option 3 -Shuttle 35/115
Option 4 - Lindsay/Peter.
21.9
45
21.9
45
12
45
12
45
NOTE:
1. Average fares based on current Peterborough route bus fares to Oshawa GO Station and an
assumption on passenger fare category percentages.
2. Option 1 and 2 costs provided by GO Transit.
3. Option 3 and 4 cost/hr. provided by City of Kawartha Lakes assuming a private carrier.
4. Cost estimates based on 251 weekdays and 104 Sat., Sun., and Hol.
5. Weekend demand for all options assumes 75% of weekday demand.
6. Ridership numbers rounded to closest 5 passengers.
Page 27
6.
Summary and Conclusions
This report reviewed the potential for improving transit service within the City of Kawartha Lakes. In
particular, options were developed to connect connecting the Town of Lindsay with the GO Transit Rail
system in south Durham and with the City of Peterborough. A summary of the findings and conclusions
of the study are as follows:
1. The current population of City of Kawartha Lakes is approximately 73,200 with approximately
20,300 residing within the Town of Lindsay. Over the last five years there has been a decline in
population in the City of Kawartha Lakes area surrounding Lindsay while the Town itself has
increased in population. The City of Kawartha Lakes Official Plan, 2011 predicts a growth in
population to 100,000 by 2031 with approximately half of the growth taking place within the
Town of Lindsay.
2. The Fleming College Lindsay campus currently has an enrolment of approximately 1500 student
and is expected to grow over the next few years.
3. The GO Bus service initiated to Peterborough in 2009 has experienced reasonable success and
has reached the forecast ridership based on available 2011 counts. At this ridership level the
cost recovery is approximately 57%. (based on GO passenger figures and costs)
4. Based on the Transportation for Tomorrow Survey (TTS) data for 2001 and 2006, travel demand
between Peterborough and the City of Kawartha Lakes (including Lindsay on its own) and
Toronto has declined. Travel demand between Peterborough and overall the City of Kawartha
Lakes has increased while travel between Lindsay and Durham was stagnant. Note that 2011
TTS data has not been made available to date.
5. In 2006, over 21,000 trips were made between the City of Kawartha Lakes and the Region of
Durham. Of these trips nearly 6300 were related to Lindsay proper and of those nearly 2100
travelled to/from lower Durham (south of Rossland Rd.)
6. Over 4300 trips were made between the City of Kawartha Lakes and the City of Toronto of
which approximately 1000 were related to the Town of Lindsay. The majority of these trips were
to/from downtown Toronto and south of Highway 401 between Scarborough and Etobicoke.
7. Based on past trends, travel between the City of Kawartha Lakes and Toronto and lower Durham
is likely to see limited, if any, growth and could decline further. This could be confirmed when
the 2011 TTS travel statistics become available.
8. Based on TTS statistics as well as data collected during the study, there is significant latent
demand for transit services in the City.
9. Four transit service options were reviewed. The performance for all of the options is reasonable
with revenue cost ratios ranging from 38% to 75%.
10. Of the two GO Transit options considered to provide service between Lindsay and the Lakeshore
GO Rail line, Option 2, the weekday extension of the Port Perry service via Highways. 7A and 35,
performs best given the lower cost of the service. However, this option would be less attractive
to potential passengers than the direct service offered by Option 1 due to the extended travel
Page 28
time of the routing. A new weekend service could attract additional passengers on the portion
of the route south of Port Perry.
11. The Option 1 service, direct to Oshawa GO Station, indicates reasonable performance with basic
service.
12. GO Transit should be formally requested to consider the implementation of the Option 1 basic
service. If the response is negative, the City could consider the implementation of Option 3, the
shuttle service to the Clarington North P&R lot, as a precursor to future GO Transit service.
13. Option 4, the service between Lindsay and Oshawa, is meant to serve a latent demand for such
a connection. In addition to general demand for travel in this corridor, this has been confirmed
by the survey of Fleming College students. There is potential for the excess costs to be shared
with the City of Peterborough and/or Fleming College.
Page 29

go transit feasibility study

Transcription

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