Beijing Cuts Itself Down to Size
Transcription
Beijing Cuts Itself Down to Size
P2HW287000-0-A00100-1--------AL Duterte Makes the Right Moves on Tax Reform ARTS | A9 OPINION | A10 ISTOCK SAYING GOODBYE TO MUSICAL GODS THURSDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2016 ~ VOL. XLI NO. 31 As of 12 p.m. ET DJIA 18155.71 À 0.15% What’s News NIKKEI 16840.00 g 1.09% STOXX 600 338.56 g 0.47% BRENT 51.89 g 0.99% GOLD 1253.00 unch. EURO 1.1021 g 0.31% S amsung slashed its profit forecast due to its Galaxy Note 7 recall, reflecting the widening impact of the crisis on the tech giant. A1, A2 Thai stocks and the baht dropped after royal authorities said the ailing king’s condition was unstable. B1 China proposed strengthening its policies on internet safety for children, which could force tech firms to make changes to meet the requirements. B2 Japan’s Kirin Holdings agreed to take a minority stake in Brooklyn Brewery. B2 Toyota is in talks with Suzuki over an alliance to share the burden of developing self-driving cars and low-cost vehicles. B2 World-Wide Trump plans to renew his nationalist themes and amplify his attacks on Clinton to try to depress Democratic voter turnout, as he faces opposition inside and outside his party. A1 Clinton’s staff sought to contain fallout from her use of a private email server, hacked emails show. A7 Singapore urged China to engage “constructively” with regional players and the U.S. to ease tension in the disputed South China Sea. A3 Pakistan’s high court is set to hear the appeal of a Pakistani Christian whose death sentence for blasphemy sparked an international outcry. A3 Hong Kong’s new pro-democracy lawmakers mangled their oaths in a show of defiance against China during a swearing-in ceremony. A3 China’s stimulus measures appear to have stabilized the economy, but the government now faces a resulting housing bubble. A3 The two lawyers representing Salah Abdeslam, the main suspect in the Paris terror attacks, stepped down in protest at his detention conditions. A4 Texas, once a star, is now a sore spot for the U.S. economy after over two years of slumping oil prices. A7 CONTENTS Arts & Ent............... A9 Business & Fin.. B1-3 Capital Account.... A2 Crossword.............. A12 Finance & Mkts.. B5-8 Heard on Street.... B8 Markets Digest..... B6 Opinion.............. A10-11 Personal Journal.. A12 Technology............... B3 U.S. News.................. A7 Weather................... A12 World News....... A2-6 China: RMB28.00; Hong Kong: HK$23.00; Indonesia: Rp25,000 (incl PPN); Japan: Yen620 (incl JCT); Korea: Won4,000; Malaysia: RM7.50; Singapore: S$5.00 (incl GST) KDN PP 9315/10/2012 (031275); MCI (P) NO. 106/10/2015; SK. MENPEN R.I. NO: 01/ SK/MENPEN/SCJJ/1998 TGL. 4 SEPT 1998 s Copyright 2016 Dow Jones & Company. All Rights Reserved RUNGROJ YONGRIT/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY Mitsubishi Heavy plans to shrink its shipbuilding business after a dramatic fall in orders and a heavy loss from its cruise-ship operations. B1 BY JONATHAN CHENG AND EUN-YOUNG JEONG HOPE: People in Bangkok wished 88-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej well Wednesday. Thai markets sank after news of his ill health. B1 Trump’s New Attack Plan Republican candidate’s approach involves nationalist themes, criticism of Clinton BY MONICA LANGLEY Donald Trump, faced with opposition inside and outside his party, plans to renew the nationalist themes that built Boycott Roils Hong Kong his base and amplify his noholds-barred attacks against Hillary Clinton to try to depress Democratic voter turnout, his advisers said. Following the release of a recording of his lewd comments about women, and several highprofile Republican defections over the weekend, Mr. Trump has effectively given up the conventional wisdom of trying to reach voters far outside his core of support, one high-level Republican supporter said. The new strategy emerged Tuesday on Mr. Trump’s Twitter account when he sent out messages attacking Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan as a weak leader after Mr. Ryan said he wouldn’t appear with the nominee. “It’s so nice that the shackles have been taken off me and I can now fight for America the way I want to,” Mr. Trump wrote. Later, in an interview with Bill O’Reilly of Fox News, Mr. Trump seemed to suggest that if he wins the election Mr. Ryan should be removed, saying the speaker “maybe wouldn’t be there, maybe he’ll be in a different position.” Mr. Trump is trying to use his break with many party leaders as a lever to ramp up Please see PLAN page A7 DOWNSIDE OF U.S. TECH BOOM: TOO FEW JOBS Dashed employment promises of the late 1990s fuel discontent crosoft Corp., even though their combined stock-market value is twice as big. Photosharing service Instagram The technology revolution A Wall Street Journal series had 13 employees when it has delivered Google examining the economic roots was acquired for $1 billion searches, Facebook friends, of America’s populist discontent by Facebook in 2012. iPhone apps, Twitter rants Hiring in the computer and and shopping for almost anychip sectors dove after comthing on Amazon, all in the panies shifted hardware production outside past decade and a half. the U.S., and the newest tech giants needed What it hasn’t delivered are many jobs. relatively few workers. The number of technolGoogle’s Alphabet Inc. and Facebook Inc. ogy startups fizzled. Growth in productivity had at the end of last year a total of 74,505 Please see TECH page A8 employees, about one-third fewer than MiBY JON HILSENRATH AND BOB DAVIS BOBBY YIP/REUTERS Ericsson’s shares tumbled after the company issued a profit warning, citing a 19% sales decline in its mobile-network equipment business. B1 DLR ¥104.43 À 0.89% Samsung Slashes Its Profit Forecast A Prayer for Thailand’s Ailing Leader Business & Finance Big U.S. banks are creating structures that would allow critical parts to keep functioning, even if the parent company has to file for bankruptcy. A1 ASIA EDITION WSJ.com FRACAS: Pro-democracy lawmakers tear ballots in the vote for Legislative Council chair. A3 U.S.’s Giant Banks Try Self-Help For Crises BY JOHN CARNEY Regulators want to prevent taxpayers from having to ever again bail out big banks. Their latest idea: make the banks bail themselves out. Previously, banks had struggled to persuade regulators they had a plan—called a “living will”—that would allow them to be dismantled and shut down if they got into trouble without taxpayers taking a hit. Now, banks are creating new structures that would allow their most important parts to keep functioning, even if the parent company had to file for bankruptcy. The aim is to avoid the kind of market chaos that could cause economic harm. To this end, there was a small structural change in the public portions of living wills Please see BAILOUT page A2 THE GREAT UNRAVELING McDonald’s Graffiti Problem: Artists and Their Lawyers i i i Burger chain is accused of stealing ‘taggers’ work to decorate restaurants What McDonald’s may not have anticipated is that the When McDonald’s Corp. re- street is undergoing its own cently introduced a grungy, branding revolution. Artists graffiti-themed décor to res- who view the urban landscape taurants across its European as a giant canvas are no longer market, the company hailed outlaws in the dusk, but are the new design as “exciting increasingly showcased in museums and gallerand fresh.” ies and pursued by Graffiti artists deep-pocketed art have a different buyers. The emdescription for the brace of graffiti burger chain’s has made artists faux-graffiti plasDash Snow’s tag more possessive of tered walls: copytheir designs, more right infringement. The design scheme, offi- sensitive to their reputation cially titled “Extreme” in and, along with the higher McDonald’s brochures, is stakes, more inclined to sue. McDonald’s is the defendant meant to target youthful consumers by using “graffiti-like in the latest of a growing visual language on the walls to handful of graffiti copyright remind people that McDonald’s clashes. In one recent case, the is a brand of the streets,” as plaintiff is the former girlthe company’s former chief friend of the late rebel artist Please see SNOW page A8 brand strategist explained. SEOUL—Samsung Electronics Co. cut its preliminary third-quarter earnings guidance figures on Wednesday, a day after announcing it would permanently discontinue its troubled Galaxy Note 7 smartphone. In a reflection of the widening financial impact of its product-safety crisis, the South Korean technology giant lowered its operating profit estimate for the three months ended Sept. 30 to 5.2 trillion Korean won ($4.6 billion) from an initial estimate of 7.8 trillion won. It also lowered its expected revenue for the quarter to 47 trillion won from an original estimate of 49 trillion won. Ericsson Shares Plunge on Warning Sweden’s networking giant said third-quarter earnings would evaporate, sending its stock down 20%. B1 Last week, Samsung said its preliminary third-quarter earnings guidance figures took into account the Galaxy Note 7 recall. The new numbers factor in the increased likelihood that customers will seek a refund for their Galaxy Note 7 rather than an exchange for a Samsung phone, leading to lower anticipated earnings for the quarter. “The expected direct cost of the discontinuation of the Galaxy Note 7 has been reflected,” a company spokeswoman said. The full impact of the crisis involving phones that are at risk of catching fire is expected to play out over several months. On Tuesday, most analysts pegged the cost of the Galaxy Note 7 debacle at about $4 billion, including recall expenses and lost sales. Lee Seung-woo, an analyst at IBK Securities in Seoul, said he is expecting the company to report a small operating loss in the third quarter for Samsung’s mobile division. If that occurs, it would mark the unit’s first quarterly loss since before its first Note series phone was released in 2011. For the last three months of the year, Mr. Lee is projecting a mobile-operating profit between 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion won. Oracle #1 Cloud ERP BY JACOB GERSHMAN 2,802 228 Oracle Cloud ERP Customers Workday Cloud ERP Customers “Oracle has their act together better than SAP” Aneel Bhusri, Workday CEO Midsize and large scale Enterprise Fusion ERP Cloud customers. cloud.oracle.com/erp or call 1.800.ORACLE.1 Copyright © 2016, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. P2HW287000-0-A00200-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. A2 | Thursday, October 13, 2016 WORLD NEWS Squeeze on Bank Profits Poses Wider Risks S even years since the global financial crisis, banks don’t look like a source of trouble. They’re making money and have thickened their buffers against bad loans, while extensive new rules have excised much of the risk from their operations. The stock market, though, tells a darker story. It thinks banks are barely able to earn more than what investors charge them for funds. The reasons are complex but CAPITAL boil down to ACCOUNT this: rock-botGREG IP tom or negative interest rates, tougher regulation and weak economic growth have severely squeezed bank profitability. An industry that can’t earn more than its cost of capital is an industry destined to shrink. This matters to more than just the banks and their shareholders. When central banks ease the supply of credit, they rely on banks to transmit the benefits to the broader economy by making loans, handling trades and moving money between people, companies and countries. Shrinking, unprofitable banks hobble that transmission channel. No politician wins votes by feeling sorry for banks. Quite the opposite: Democratic presidential nominee BAILOUT Continued from page A1 released last week by the biggest U.S. banks. This involved the creation of a holding company to sit between the shareholder-owned parent company and its subsidiaries. The new companies will house resources meant to support banking and brokerage units in times of crisis. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it had created a new entity to fill this role, while Bank of America Corp. is using an existing subsidiary. Citigroup Inc. said it has similar plans. The new entities will be a sort of emergency backup bank within the bank, a vehicle for internal bailouts. The Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the two agencies that must sign off on living wills, pushed the banks to pursue the new type of holding com- Hillary Clinton would make it easier to punish miscreant bankers while charging banks a new “risk” fee. Some finance officials, however, are starting to worry. “We don’t have a banking crisis, we have a profitability crisis,” Hans Jörg Schelling, Austria’s finance minister, said recently. Central banks in Europe and Japan are skittish about cutting interest rates even further for fear of undermining their banks. The point is illustrated well by a recent study by Natasha Sarin and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, both of Harvard University, and presented at the Brookings Institution. They decided to assess the stability of banks not as regulators do, which usually means looking at capital (such as shareholders’ equity), but as markets do. They examined the behavior of common shares, preferred shares, options, credit default swaps and various valuation yardsticks. They discovered that markets think banks are much more likely to lose half their market value than before the crisis. They interpret this as a “decline in the franchise value of major financial institutions, caused at least in part by new regulations.” The counterintuitive implication: Rules designed to make banking safer may, pany in April guidance, according to people familiar with the matter. The suggestion came from an eight-word phrase in a 23-page memo that received little attention outside of banks, they said. The Fed and FDIC declined to comment. The change could cause unease among regulators outside the U.S. It potentially could lead banks to keep less capital at overseas subsidiaries and make it less likely they would support all their global operations in times of trouble. The upshot could be a push by non-U.S. regulators to require banks to provide additional support locally for subsidiaries. That would mirror the approach U.S. regulators have taken toward the subsidiaries of foreign banks. “The best and most transparent way to deal with this would be an international agreement among regulators,” said Karen Petrou of research Market Discount Investors are assigning much lower values to banks than they did a decade ago, often less than those banks’ book value. Average ratio of bank market value to book value Large U.S. banks: Precrisis average* Postcrisis average† Wells Fargo 2.77 1.44 Goldman Sachs 1.04 J.P. Morgan Chase 1.42 0.98 Morgan Stanley 2.14 1.84 0.83 Citigroup 2.31 0.70 Bank of America 2.15 0.63 Other U.S. banks: Midsize institutions (avg.) 2.25 1.25 Non-U.S. banks: Canada 1.89 U.K. 0.91 Japan 0.59 Italy 0.57 Germany 0.48 2.16 1.77 0.72 France 2.43 1.44 1.55 1.14 *Usually 2002–07 †Usually 2010–15 Source: Natasha Sarin and Larry Summers, Harvard University & Brookings Institution THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. by endangering their longterm viability, ultimately achieve the opposite. One telling data point is the decline in the ratio of banks’ market value to the value their books say they are worth. For example, Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc., which traded at about double their book value before the crisis, have since traded below, as have banks in France, Germany, Japan and Italy. That means investors think that banks will be earning negative returns on their assets, after costs. And indeed, the Institute for International Finance, which represents global banks, and advisory firm Federal Financial Analytics. “But those efforts have failed. Regulators can’t agree. Each, quite reasonably, wants to protect the interests and financial systems of their home country.” Critics of the new approach said the creation of new entities is a move in the wrong direction. “They try to fight complexity with more complexity,” said Cornelius Hurley, director of the Boston University Center for Finance, Law & Policy. Moreover, the undertaking to some drifts far from the original idea for living wills, created by the Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law. “We’re just lurching from one idea to the next, creating a jerry-built system of financial regulation,” Ms. Petrou said. The wills were originally envisioned in the wake of the financial crisis as a way to make it possible for a big bank to fail without a taxpayer- funded bailout. The latest wills were drafted in response to faults cited by the Fed and FDIC in banks’ 2015 plans. The stakes are high. The wills’ process gives the regulators enormous power; in an extreme case, the Fed and FDIC could order the breakup of a big bank even before it runs into any trouble. What is being created is a ‘jerrybuilt system of financial regulation.’ The wills now revolve around a scenario in which the parent holding company of a failing firm enters into bankruptcy. Meanwhile, its subsidiaries—commercial banks, broker-dealers, merchant banks— survive and are protected. This is done by moving capital and funds to the subsidiar- finds that since 2010, European, Japanese and U.S. banks have on average been earning less than their cost of capital. Regulation is part of the reason. To better buffer loan losses, banks must now hold more capital such as shareholders’ equity, which spreads profits across more shares. To deal with sudden outflows of funds, they must hold more highly liquid short-term assets, such as Treasury bills, which earn less than loans. T his has been compounded by the sluggish economy, which has held back loan growth, and by monetary policy. Banks profit from the spread between the interest they charge on loans and pay to depositors. But loan rates have been pulled down as central banks hold shortterm rates at or below zero and buy bonds, and banks are reluctant to pass that on to depositors by charging to hold their money. Moreover, when central banks buy bonds, they pay with newly created cash that sits on banks’ balance sheets earning nothing, or less. This can explain a lot of the problems in Europe’s banks, including Deutsche Bank, which is facing a potential multibillion dollar U.S. penalty over crisis-era mortgage activity. The German powerhouse has nearly ies, even as the parent holding company fails. That protects creditors and counterparties of the subsidiaries, a move it is hoped that prevents the kind of turmoil that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Regulators support that general idea, but have been critical of how it would work in practice. Moving capital and funds between subsidiaries in a time of stress can be tricky. When the parent runs into trouble, creditors and regulators may seek to prevent resources from being moved between a firm’s various arms, regulators have warned banks. This is particularly problematic for global banks; foreign regulators or local creditors may attempt to protect resources to shield subsidiaries or branches in their home country. Regulators in their April guidance told banks to keep sufficient resources in subsid- BY JONATHAN CHENG SEOUL—A worsening crisis over faulty Samsung Electronics Co. smartphones has thrust the conglomerate’s heir apparent, Lee Jae-yong, into his first critical leadership test. In a series of phone calls on Tuesday with Samsung’s mobile chief, D.J. Koh, and other executives, Mr. Lee decided to pull the plug on the Galaxy Note 7, a highly regarded smartphone that Samsung had hoped would outflank Apple Inc.’s new iPhone, according to a person briefed on Mr. Lee’s conversations. Instead, it had become an albatross as the company struggled to cope with a string of reports about the device catching fire. On Tuesday, Samsung told Galaxy Note 7 users world-wide to immediately switch off their devices. Mr. Lee’s decision, which came more than a month after Samsung first issued a global recall of 2.5 million smartphones, is an attempt to ringfence once and for all a reputational crisis that looked poised to spread far beyond the Galaxy Note 7, the person familiar with the matter said. Samsung declined to make Mr. Lee available for an interview, or to comment about his role in the Galaxy Note 7 crisis. “Samsung needs to act swiftly and move on to protect their brand image,” Mark Newman, an equity analyst for Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in Hong Kong, said Tuesday. He argued that Samsung should even consider ditching the Galaxy Note series altogether. Analysts argued that the company has its flagship Galaxy S series to fall back on, which outsells the Galaxy Note at a rate of roughly three to one. The Note 7’s woes came just as Samsung was getting back on track after two years of falling profit. Consumers had flocked back to its phones, helping push Samsung’s stock price toward all-time highs and reaffirming the company’s place as the world’s dominant manufacturer of smartphones by revenue. Samsung’s shares tumbled 8% on Tuesday—the company’s biggest one-day decline in eight years. Its move to discontinue the Galaxy Note 7 is likely to lift the holiday sales of rivals, including China’s Huawei Technologies Co. and Apple. Alphabet Inc.’s Google—the maker of Android, which powers most Samsung devices—is making a renewed push into smartphones. Adding to the raft of challenges that Mr. Lee faces, U.S. hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. last week launched a campaign to split Samsung Electronics in two ahead of a shareholder vote later this month, where Mr. Lee is expected to win a board seat for the first time. Since his father was incapacitated by a heart attack more than two years ago, Mr. Lee, a 48-year-old Samsung Group vice chairman and the third-generation scion of South Korea’s biggest business empire, has been thrust into the limelight, overseeing a sprawling conglomerate whose businesses span the gamut from shipbuilding to life insurance, refrigerators to biologic drugs. Mr. Lee remains distant from day-to-day decision-making, largely delegating the handling of the Note 7 fiasco, ANDY RAIN/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY; AHN YOUNG-JOON/ASSOCIATED PRESS (TOP) Phone Crisis Tests Samsung Heir Apparent Top, company heir apparent Lee Jae-yong. Samsung is ceasing Galaxy Note 7 production. for instance, to executives like Mr. Koh, the mobile chief. Mr. Lee’s low-key approach stands in contrast to his father, Samsung Chairman Lee Kun-hee, a restless manager who would occasionally insert himself into key decisions. In one mid-1990s incident that has now become Samsung lore, the elder Mr. Lee, angered by the shoddy crafts- manship of his company’s products, had 2,000 employees watch as a heap of 150,000 phones was set aflame, with bulldozers dispatched to crush the remains. His son has maintained his focus on the conglomerate’s broader direction. This includes a long-term campaign to divest Samsung of unwanted parts like its defense and chemicals arms, while reshaping the conglomerate’s hidebound culture. Mr. Lee has promoted maternity leaves and sabbaticals, pushed his executives to spend more time in the U.S. and made proficiency in English a bigger factor in determining which executives get promotions. One key trait he shares with his father: a sense of paranoia about Samsung’s recent ascendance, according to a person familiar with his thinking. The younger Mr. Lee, in conversations, has described the consumer-electronics business, and smartphones in particular, as a cutthroat world where fortunes can turn on a dime and where Samsung is fighting less for dominance than for “survival,” according to the person. Mr. Lee pushed for a recall of Galaxy Notes 7s in early September in hopes of quickly stemming potential damage to the brand, according to the person, overruling executives who sought to play down early reports of fires as a statistical blip. As reports began emerging late last month that Samsung’s replacement phones were also suffering from the same problems, Mr. Lee was at first reluctant to throw in the towel, the person said. But after a Southwest Airlines flight was evacuated last week after reports of a smoking Samsung smartphone, he began leaning toward a total shutdown of the product, the person said. Conferring with Mr. Koh and G.S. Choi, another top lieutenant, in daily phone briefings, Mr. Lee argued that U.S. aviation authorities’ continued insistence that the Galaxy Note 7 must be shut off during flights would hamper the brand. While Mr. Lee has remained behind the scenes throughout the crisis, there are signs that he could begin to assert himself more publicly, particularly after a shareholder meeting later this month where he is set to win a board seat at Samsung Electronics—his first-ever on any of Samsung Group’s 58 affiliates. The new position will give him legal responsibility within a conglomerate in which his power and influence have so far been exercised through nonofficial channels, the person familiar with the matter said. Marcelo Claure, the chief executive of Sprint Corp., on Tuesday said he had spoken directly with Mr. Lee about the Galaxy Note 7 problems, as well as other Samsung executives. “They have always been straightforward about what the issues were,” he said. Mr. Claure said he expected Samsung to recover quickly. “Brands recover when you make great products, and they do make great products,” Mr. Claure said. “It’s a blow but it’s not a fatal blow.” —Eun-Young Jeong and Ryan Knutson contributed to this article. €123 billion ($135 billion) tied up in cash and centralbank deposits. Meanwhile, its investment banking revenue has been sapped by regulations and docile markets. George Karamanos, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette and Woods, says if current interest rates persist, by 2020 European banks’ profits will drop 20% and Deutsche Bank will be unprofitable. Wells Fargo & Co. seemed to separate itself from its peers by boosting the number of products such as accounts and credit cards each customer bought. But in the process, many customers ended up with accounts and cards they didn’t want. Not only did that business earn nothing for Wells, it brought a $185 million penalty, a Justice Department investigation and some $20 billion in lost market value. Indeed, investors must now discount the possibility that any bank could be one scandal away from indictment and a crippling, multibillion dollar fine. Banks have responded by exiting or downsizing businesses that carry the most reputational risk, such as international money transfers and issuing mortgages to less creditworthy borrowers. Those who blame many of the economy’s ills on a wasteful and overgrown financial sector will no doubt cheer this retreat. Everyone else should worry. iaries to deal with potential problems and be prepared for the parent company to deploy funds as needed. Regulators cautioned this has its own problems. First, it is almost impossible to know where a problem will emerge and to have the right amount of resources at the right subsidiary. Second, keeping assets at the parent holding company increases the chance an outside creditor could try to grab them in bankruptcy. That is where the new entities come into play. They will hold resources that can be rushed to support subsidiaries. But they won’t have liabilities to outside parties, such as debt, and will be based in the U.S. That will make it harder for outside creditors or foreign regulators to try to grab assets. The important thing is that this will happen now or in the near future, not when a crisis is a hand. That should prevent creditors or shareholders from later claiming that the maneuvers were fraudulent transfers or a breach of the company’s fiduciary duty, according to J.P. Morgan’s will submission. CORRECTIONS AMPLIFICATIONS Readers can alert The Wall Street Journal to any errors in news articles by emailing wsjcontact@wsj.com. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. 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By web: http://wsj-asia.com By email: service@wsj-asia.com By phone: Hong Kong: 800 901 216; Australia: 0011 8000 322 8482; China: 400 991 1174; India: 000 800 440 1938; Indonesia: +62 21 2970 2702; Japan: 0120 779 868; Korea: 0030 844 0063; Malaysia: 1800 804 612; New Zealand: 0800 442 434; Philippines: 1800 1441 0033; Singapore: 1800 823 2042; Taiwan: 00801 444 141; Thailand: 001800 441 8323 P2HW287000-0-A00300-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, October 13, 2016 | A3 WORLD NEWS Singapore Urges China to Ease Tensions On visit to Australia, leader also moves to complete $1.7 billion defense deal CANBERRA, Australia— Singapore urged Beijing to engage “constructively” with other regional players—including the U.S.—to ease tensions in the disputed South China Sea, even as the city-state wraps up a deal here to sharpen its military skills. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong told Australia’s Parliament at the start of a twoday visit on Wednesday that both allies wanted a “stable and orderly world in which countries big and small can prosper in peace.” “This requires an open and inclusive social regional order where all the major powers can participate,” he said. Singapore has faced growing diplomatic pressure from Beijing as regional tensions flare over competing territorial claims in the South China Sea. While Singapore has professed its neutrality, some in China see it as siding with U.S.-led efforts to pressure Beijing into accepting an international tribunal’s decision in July that rejected China’s claims. Beijing has denounced the ruling as illegitimate. Singapore regularly hosts U.S. Navy warships, including aircraft carriers and submarines, transiting through the region, while its military fre- LUKAS COCH/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY BY ROB TAYLOR Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, left, and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in the legislature in Canberra on Wednesday. quently trains with American counterparts. Mr. Lee described the U.S. as “playing a major role in fostering peace and stability in Asia,” and added: “We wish to strengthen our cooperation with China. We welcome China in engaging constructively with the region.” China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to a request to comment. Mr. Lee’s Australian counterpart, Malcolm Turnbull, said Canberra and Singapore wanted regional stability and were “at one in defending the rule of law and rejecting the proposition that might is right.” On Thursday, the two men were to complete a deal announced in May under which Singapore will spend US$1.7 billion to upgrade two Australian military bases at Townsville and Shoalwater Bay, north of Brisbane. Singapore plans to send up to 14,000 troops a year there by 2021 for four-month training rotations, up from a maximum of 6,600 now. Singapore’s Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen said in April that rising nationalism and “this troubled peace around us” was driving the country’s military spending. The U.S. has been using Australia’s vast training areas to carry out military exercises, as part of Washington’s rebal- ancing of forces to the AsiaPacific region. The Marines and Air Force have been expanding their footprints in the northern Australian port of Darwin, while U.S. combat ships have begun 10-month patrol rotations through Singapore. Mr. Lee, in the first address to Australia’s Parliament by a Singaporean leader, said both nations were reliant on unfettered sea trade and wanted to “keep the region open.” Both countries already hold regular joint military exercises, while a squadron of Republic of Singapore Air Force aircraft is based at an Australian Air Force base in Western Australia state. “We feel quite at home in each other’s countries,” Mr. Lee said. For its part, Australia in February outlined a 195 billion Australian dollar (US$148 billion) military modernization centered on the navy. The Asia-Pacific region will hold half of the world’s submarines and advanced combat aircraft within the next two decades, strategic planners say, as Asian nations modernize their militaries and hedge against the possibility of a superpower conflict. Singapore was Australia’s fifth-largest trade partner last year, with two-way export and investment flows valued at A$19 billion. The U.S. ranked third, while China was Australia’s most important trade relationship. —Chun Han Wong in Beijing contributed to this article. Economy Stable, But Focus Is on Housing Bubble BEIJING—Stimulus measures appear to have stabilized China’s economy over the past few months, but the government now faces a resulting housing bubble that it needs to contain without choking off growth, economists say. The economy likely grew 6.7% from a year earlier in the third quarter, the same pace as the previous quarter, according to a median forecast of 16 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Overall, those polled expect to see stable or improved performance when the government reports statistics for September and the third quarter in coming days. China’s challenge is to curb the property market without arresting growth. Behind the sustained pace is a push by Beijing to expand fiscal spending and new credit. One effect has been what some have called a government-sponsored property bull market. Fast-rising housing prices in many cities, after several years during which the overbuilt property market dragged on overall growth, are now causing alarm among economists and some officials. Rising household and corporate-debt levels amid an overheating property market may cause a chain reaction that could eventually threaten the global economic recovery, economists at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group said in a research re- port Tuesday. “The property frenzy is worrisome,” the ANZ report said. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang struck a temperate note on the risks this week, in overall positive remarks about the economy. The official Xinhua News Agency quoted Mr. Li as saying Tuesday that growth this year, especially in the third quarter, is “better than expected,” with robust job creation. “There are many discussions now about China’s debt and property-market risks, among other issues,” Mr. Li said. “I think we need to look at these issues objectively.” He said local governments will adopt suitable measures to ensure steady development of the property market. Already, at least 17 Chinese cities have imposed restrictions on real-estate purchases in the past week to cool the homebuying fever. A challenge for Beijing is to control the hot market without arresting economic growth. To maintain the momentum, policy makers should advance long-pledged structural reforms, such as overhauling state enterprises, said Jianguang Shen, an economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. Aside from a sustained rate of growth, economists also expect to see modest improvements in business activities in the coming release of data. Value-added industrial output likely rose 6.4% in September from a year ago, up slightly from 6.3% year-to-year growth in August, the Journal’s survey of economists showed. —Liyan Qi BOBBY YIP/REUTERS Customers inspected packaged foods in a fresh produce section at a newly opened Wal-Mart Store in Tianjin in September. A swearing-in ceremony to kick off Hong Kong’s legislative session descended into farce Wednesday as newly elected prodemocracy lawmakers intentionally mangled their oaths in a show of defiance against Beijing. They also displayed flags declaring that Hong Kong isn’t a part of China, and called for “democratic self-determination” for the semiautonomous Chinese city during the oath-taking session. [Leung Kwok-hung and Ted Hui, in photo, were restrained by security guards when they tried to block the election of the chairman of the Legislative Council.] The provocative actions foreshadow what is expected to be a chaotic term for Hong Kong’s semidemocratic Legislative Council after a group of youthful candidates were elected in September, adding to the opposition’s numbers. The freshman lawmakers represent some of the new wave of grass-roots groups that emerged from the wake of 2014’s massive pro-democracy street protests, which failed to win concessions from Beijing but sparked a rising independence movement and a political awakening among the city’s young. Sixtus Leung, 30, of the Youngspiration party, draped a blue flag with the words “Hong Kong is not China” over his shoulders and crossed his fingers as he held a Bible while he spoke. His colleague Yau Wai-ching laid the same flag on the table in front of her when it was her turn. They recited the oath in English but appeared to deliberately mispronounce the word China as Shina, an old fashioned Japanese term for the country that some see as derogatory. Another lawmaker, Lau Siulai, who founded her own party, Democracy Groundwork, recited the oath very slowly. She took about 10 minutes to repeat the declaration, which has less than 100 words, by pausing for a few seconds after each one, as the rest of the council chamber listened in silence. —Associated Press Pakistan Court to Hear Blasphemy Case BY SAEED SHAH AND QASIM NAUMAN ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—A Pakistani Christian woman whose death sentence for blasphemy sparked an international outcry is due to have her appeal heard by the country’s highest court this week. Asia Bibi was convicted six years ago after being accused by Muslim villagers of denigrating the Prophet Muhammad following an argument over a drink of water. Ms. Bibi denies the charge. The Catholic farmworker’s case became one of the country’s most high-profile blas- AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES QILAI SHEN/BLOOMBERG NEWS New Hong Kong Pro-Democracy Lawmakers Defy Beijing A poster shows Asia Bibi, who will appeal her conviction and death sentence for blasphemy this week in the Supreme Court. phemy convictions, with Pope Benedict XVI among those who called for mercy for the mother of five. A Pakistani politician was shot dead by his bodyguard after speaking out in support of her. Ms. Bibi’s lawyer, Saif ul Malook, receives death threats and, in prison, she is kept separate from others for her safety. Of countries that outlaw blasphemy, Pakistan has among the highest number of blasphemy cases, with the law used against Muslims and religious minorities alike. Humanrights groups say the legislation is open to abuse, with fabricated allegations often used to settle grudges. Mobs frequently attack the accused even before they get to court. The appeal will be heard at the Supreme Court, the last legal forum open to Ms. Bibi, in Islamabad on Thursday. On a hot day in June 2009, Ms. Bibi, now 51 years old, was picking fruit with other women laborers in a field in Ittan Wali village 40 miles west of Lahore, the capital of Punjab province, said her husband, Ashiq Masih. She went to fetch them some water. However, some of the Muslim workers refused to take water from her, a Christian, igniting an argument, according to her statement to police. Five days later that quarrel turned into an accusation of blasphemy, lodged by a local Muslim cleric who wasn’t present during the altercation who claimed Ms. Bibi had denigrated the Prophet Muhammad during the argument, her husband said. She was beaten by villagers, her clothes torn and she was handed over to police, he added. The success of the appeal will hinge on proving that testimony of two women who argued with Ms. Bibi is false, said her lawyer, Mr. Malook. Attempts to contact the two women were unsuccessful. “Now that the hearing is upon us, I can only pray that the court gives us justice,” said Mr. Masih, who is in hiding. He fled the village with their children after his wife’s arrest, fearing for their safety, and hasn’t returned. He lives elsewhere doing odd jobs. “Our whole life was in that village. That’s where I grew up,” Mr. Masih said. Cecil Chaudhry, executive director of National Commission for Justice and Peace, a Catholic group in Pakistan, said the prominence of Ms. Bibi’s case meant that its outcome was important for religious minorities, some 5% of the population. “The blasphemy issue instills a constant fear in the minds of the minority community,” he said. P2HW287000-0-A00400-1--------AL A4 | Thursday, October 13, 2016 HK JP KO ML SI IN UK FR MN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. PR WORLD NEWS Paris-Attack Lawyers Quit Attorneys say they are protesting suspect Salah Abdeslam’s round-the-clock surveillance in jail ANDREY RUDAKOV/BLOOMBERG NEWS BY INTI LANDAURO Mr. Putin attended a panel discussion in Moscow on Wednesday. Putin Says West Unfair Over Syria PARIS—The two lawyers representing Salah Abdeslam, the main suspect in the investigation of the Paris terror attacks that killed 130 people in November, have stepped down in protest at his detention conditions. Attorney Frank Berton said Mr. Abdeslam is under surveillance 24 hours a day and that, as a result, the suspected terrorist will invoke his right to remain silent, backtracking on an initial claim that he would cooperate with the French investigation. Mr. Berton, who had represented Mr. Abdeslam since he was transferred to France following his arrest in Belgium in March, and Sven Mary, who had represented him in Belgium, said on French TV channel BFM that they would no longer be defending him. “We have both decided to renounce the defense of Salah Abdeslam; it is not an abandonment, it is a resignation. We know, are convinced—and he told us—that he won’t speak and will use his right to remain silent,” Mr. Berton said. The lawyers said Mr. Abdeslam plans to represent himself in future. A spokeswoman for the Justice Minister, who oversees jails in France, wasn’t immediately available for comment. Mr. Abdeslam, 27, is the only surviving suspect in the MICHEL SPINGLER/ASSOCIATED PRESS; KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES; BELGIAN FEDERAL POLICE/EPA Frank Berton and Sven Mary represented Salah Abdeslam, the main suspect in last year’s attacks, after he was transferred to France following his arrest in Belgium in March. Nov. 13 Paris attacks. He was arrested in the Brussels neighborhood he grew up in after a four-month manhunt. His noncooperation decision is a setback for French and Belgian investigators who are counting on him to provide more information about the network that was behind the terror attacks in Paris in late 2015 and in Brussels in March of this year. They also want to know how he managed to avoid being captured between November 2015 and March 2016. When he was transferred to France in late April, Mr. Abdeslam had said through his lawyers that he was eager to talk with French judges. Mr. Mary and Mr. Berton blamed the French authorities’ constant surveillance of Mr. Abdeslam in his top-security jail cell for his decision to remain silent. “When they observe your acting 24 hours a day, even with an infrared camera, you go crazy,” Mr. Berton said. Justice Minister JeanJacques Urvoas, who oversees jails in France, won’t comment on the lawyers questioning, a spokeswoman said. He has said in the past French authorities established the constant surveillance to prevent Mr. Abdeslam committing suicide and contacting other inmates. Olivier Morice, who represents about 40 families of victims at the Bataclan concert hall, claimed the lawyers’ withdrawal is “political posturing.” “They seek to move the debate away from their client’s responsibility in the attacks into a questioning of the state,” Mr. Morice said. “It’s typical defense line used by terrorists in court.” Mr. Abdeslam is alleged to have been in charge of part of the logistical operation behind the Nov. 13 operation, such as renting cars and rooms used by the terrorists—his brother among them—and driving some of them to their targets on the night of the rampage, which killed 130 people and left hundreds injured in several areas in the French capital. Unlike others involved in the attacks, who blew themselves up or were subsequently killed, Mr. Abdeslam arranged for two friends to pick him up and drive him back to Brussels, where all the attackers had come from a few days before. He is thought to be the only survivor among those who hit Paris that night. Burdened German Cities Tell Refugees to Go Berlin Approves Draft Law to Cut Migrant Aid ESSEN, Germany—Thomas Kufen, the mayor of this rustbelt town in western Germany, thinks his city has a bad case of refugee overload. Since the beginning of the year, some 7,150 refugees have flocked to Essen from other towns, twice as many as the city was allocated for the whole year under Germany’s complex burden-sharing mechanism. This, Mr. Kufen says, is more than it can handle. So when parliament passed a law this summer allowing overburdened cities to send jobless refugees back to the states where they were first assigned, Mr. Kufen thought he had found the solution to his problem. “As a big city we already are doing integration work for the entire country. But there is a limit to our capacity that we don’t want to put to the test,” Mr. Kufen said. The case of Essen and the new residency restrictions underline how Berlin is scrambling to regain control of last year’s historic refugee inflows and to fend off a mounting popular backlash. It also shows that while Berlin has gradually tightened its liberal policies, the goal of integrating the newcomers remains fraught with pitfalls. When the flow of refugees reached its peak a year ago, Germany initially dispatched the newcomers across the country, spreading the cost of looking after them. But once the migrants had obtained BERLIN—Germany moved to curb social benefits for citizens from other European Union countries in a bid to prevent migrants abusing its generous welfare system. EU migrants who have never worked in the country won’t be able to enjoy most social and unemployment benefits for the first five years here, according to a draft law approved by the cabinet on Wednesday. The law seeks to clarify confusion over recent court rulings. A German federal court ruled recently that nonworking EU migrants were entitled to social benefits after six months in the country, but the EU’s top court had ruled in a previous case that Germany was allowed to deny social benefits to EU nationals. Germany’s tougher line on welfare for EU migrants comes as German towns are struggling with the financial burden of caring for last year’s influx of refugees and migrants, and the government is trying to quell growing discomfort in the country with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-door migrant policies that have boosted the popularity of the populist, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party. The AfD scored unprecedented electoral wins in recent state elections amid voter concern since Germany received nearly one million migrants and refugees last year. —Ruth Bender BY LAURA MILLS MOSCOW—Russian President Vladimir Putin lashed out at the West over Syria on Wednesday, saying the U.S. and Europe were unfairly placing blame on Moscow for the breakdown of a cease-fire. Mr. Putin said a September airstrike on a humanitarian convoy in Aleppo—an attack that U.S. officials blamed on Syria and its ally, Russia—was “the work of extremist groups.” “It was a terrorist organization. And we know that the Americans know about that, but they prefer to take a different position, they prefer to make sweeping accusations against Russia,” he said at an investor conference in Moscow on Wednesday. Mr. Putin also accused Western powers of using Russia’s veto of a U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria drafted by France to further undermine Moscow’s role in the peace process. He said France knew in advance that Russia would veto the resolution in its current form, but proceeded with a Security Council vote anyway. “They didn’t do it so that the resolution would pass,” he said. “And why? In order to escalate the situation and to inflame anti-Russian hysteria in their controlled media.” RUTH BENDER/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL BY RUTH BENDER Maisoun Mahmoud Khalaf moved to Essen with her son Ali in July. Now they have to move on. asylum, they were free to settle anywhere. As a result, some regions, like the old industrial Ruhr area, with housing left empty after a coal-mining decline and already existing migrant communities, have become magnets for Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans. With many unable to support themselves because they can’t speak German or don’t have the right job qualifications, the influx is turning into a heavy financial burden. Since Aug. 6, refugees who don’t work or study have to live in the state they were originally sent to for three years. In Essen, that means some 2,500 refugees who moved here, but failed to register before then, are being told to leave and those who received benefits will be cut off. Mazen Sheikh Alhadedeen is one of those asked to go. After struggling to find an apartment in the Bavarian village of Miltenberg, the 26-year-old moved to Essen with his wife. But he said he couldn’t get an appointment to register with the overstretched immigration office in time. “I have an apartment now, a place in German class, I don’t want to go back,” Mr. Alhadedeen said. He is challenging the rule in court. City officials said they are aware of a growing number of court filings. That is just one hurdle in enforcing the law. The legislation leaves open many questions—such as which administration is in charge, who can be exempted, and whether cities can force refugees to leave, officials say. Maisoun Mahmoud Khalaf, a 45-year-old Syrian, feels caught amid the uncertainty. After Essen warned her in a letter that she would stop receiving benefits, she agreed to move back to Schwerin in eastern Germany with her 7-year-old son. Days before the looming deadline last month, local au- thorities hadn’t told her who would pay for her transportation, so she took the offer of a driver for €350. She had only just bought the bed and fridge for the newly renovated apartment she left behind. “I regret I moved now. If only I had known about all this trouble,” she said. Mr. Kufen acknowledged some people are hit hard but insists the law is vital. In 2015, Essen spent €130 million ($145 million) on refugees, only half of which is reimbursed by the federal government, he said. Kindergartens, schools and housing will cost millions more. The neighboring city of Gelsenkirchen, also popular with migrants, is equally concerned. Some 800 refugees who were told to return to other states will be cut off from social benefits at the end of October. “I don’t know if we would do the refugees a favor by allowing them to stay,” said HansJoachim Olbering, in charge of social affairs for Gelsenkirchen. “We have an unemployment rate of 15%. What sort of an integration prospect can we offer to someone except social benefits and an apartment?” Back in Essen, Ahmad Hmedi from the Syrian-German Association is convinced the Syrian community will continue to grow. He is advising his fellow countrymen to challenge evictions and points out that refugees who obtained asylum in 2015 still remain free to move. “Others will come,” he said. “The city is still popular.” BY JUAN FORERO TIENDA NUEVA, Colombia— Colombian voters’ rejection of the government’s peace deal with Marxist guerrillas has fueled concern that the country’s simmering conflict could reignite. But out here in the remote savanna, the rebels say they won’t be the ones fighting. “To fight, you need two, and we’ve decided we won’t be the second party,” said Federico Nariño, the nom de guerre for a midlevel commander of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, which has under 6,000 men under arms. Since the peace agreement’s surprise defeat in a plebiscite this month, the guerrillas haven’t redeployed into their jungle redoubts or carried out military drills. Instead, they have largely spent their days as they did this past weekend at a major guerrilla camp here: lolling in hammocks and playing soccer on muddy patches. However shocked by voters’ “no” to the deal, rebels and their commanders alike said they still believe peace is within reach after 52 years of fighting that claimed 220,000 lives. “The news that the world should know is that the war is over and we are going to find— I have no doubt—alternatives to the problems we have now,” said Luis Antonio Losada, a member of the FARC’s ruling secretariat. “A return to war is not an alternative.” The rebels’ attitude could buy President Juan Manuel Santos some crucial time as he seeks to work on a new, modified pact to address the concerns of critics including former President Álvaro Uribe, who has blasted the deal as a sellout to the rebels. The political foes have met and plan further talks. The government also wants to formally extend a cease-fire that was agreed to last only through the end of the month. On Colombian radio Tuesday, Mr. Uribe stood firm that tougher punishments for guerrillas were needed, including banning them from holding public office. But he has eased away from earlier calls for jail time, saying they could be confined to farms instead of prison. The FARC began fighting in 1964, and its troops say it has survived so long by distrusting the state and taking every extra precautions. But Mr. Losada, better known by the nom de guerre Carlos Antonio Lozada, spoke of the trust the group has built with both Mr. Santos’s government and the armed forces’ high command. “We built something important and decisive for this [peace] process, and that’s trust between the armed forces and the insurgency.”“Perhaps, the area where there’s less risk is in the military, I’d say,” said Mr. Losada, a compact, bald man who has been crisscrossing this region addressing his charges’ concerns since the vote. the impasse. “We built something important and decisive for this [peace] process, and that’s trust between the armed forces and the insurgency.” This past weekend, 230 reb- els sat in the rain under a large tarpaulin and listened as a commander outlined details of the 297-page accord. Most said they believed the deal would soon be fixed, allowing them to disarm and become members of a political party. But more conflict isn’t out of the question. Byron Yepes, a 56year-old commander who says he has fought for 33 years, says rebels wouldn’t agree to a pact that set jail time for the leaders. “We don’t want war, but if they force us, we have to,” he said. Though many rebels in the area still carry around their Galil assault rifles, Mr. Yepes and others here said peace remains the most likely option. And in this disciplined, hierarchical militia, the message from the top is that rebels will soon lay down their weapons forever. Most fighters here—young men and women as well as the occasional haggard fighters with 30 years in the bush—described dreaming of a new chapter. “No one’s worried,” said a 37-year-old fighter who goes by JUAN FORERO/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ‘War Is Over,’ Colombia Rebels Say Rebels in a makeshift jungle classroom listen to a commander tell them about the peace accord. the nom de guerre Jefferson. He recalled surviving firefights, bombings and strafing, including .50-caliber gunfire from an attack helicopter that ripped chunks out of his left leg. Now, he reads Bogotá newspapers, collects firewood, and ponders finishing school. “This is our daily life now,” he said. —Kejal Vyas in Bogotá contributed to this article. P2HW287000-0-A00500-2--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. * Thursday, October 13, 2016 | A5 ADVERTISEMENT Export Food, Not Jobs Let’s start a national conversation about how to double the sales of the American food production industry and create millions of new American jobs. At the inaugural Global Food Forum hosted by The Wall Street Journal in New York City on October 6, Anthony Pratt, Executive Chairman of Pratt Industries, delivered the sponsor’s opening remarks. Here are the key points: • • • • • • America is the world’s food superpower and food production is its largest industry. 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Pratt Industries was proud to be the lead sponsor of The Wall Street Journal Global Food Forum Pratt Industries, one of the largest corrugated box manufacturers in the United States, proudly supports the American food industry! www.prattindustries.com P2HW287000-0-A00600-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. A6 | Thursday, October 13, 2016 WORLD NEWS Eurozone Industry Gains Strength U.K.’sMay Defends Data ease concerns that drop in pound following Brexit vote will affect EU exports BY PAUL HANNON The eurozone’s factories, mines and utilities stepped up production in August, easing worries that the pound’s sharp falls in the wake of the U.K.’s June vote to leave the European Union would have an immediate impact on exports from the currency area to its second-largest overseas market. The pound tumbled in the vote’s aftermath, and last week resumed its declines as investors remain uncertain about how a departure from the EU will affect the U.K.’s economy. That depreciation makes goods manufactured in the eurozone more expensive for British buyers, which could harm sales. Indeed, figures released by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics last week showed imports from the rest of the EU hit a record high in August. However, figures released by the EU’s statistics agency Wednesday showed industrial output in the eurozone was 1.6% higher than in July, and 1.8% up on August 2015. That was a slightly stronger performance than had been expected, with economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last week having estimated that output rose 1.5%. Eurostat also cut its estimate for the decline in output during July to 0.7% from 1.1%. The pickup was led by Ger- many, the eurozone’s largest exporter to the U.K. But there were also significant increases in France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. There was a big drop in Irish output, but that tends to be highly volatile from one month to the next. The increase is unlikely to fully allay concerns about the impact of Brexit. The jump in production is unlikely to fully allay concerns among policy makers about the impact of Brexit on the eurozone economy. Currency moves can take many months to translate into canceled or reduced export orders, while the renewed and sharp decline at the same, weak pace in the third quarter. Modest as it is, there are continuing signs that the recovery that began in mid-2013 is becoming more deeply rooted. Figures also published by Eurostat on Wednesday showed house prices rose by 1.4% in the second quarter from the first three months of the year, while they were up 2.9% on a year earlier. Some critics of the ECB’s stimulus programs—which include negative interest rates— have warned of a rising threat of fresh asset bubbles. But there were few signs of overheating in Eurostat’s figures, with prices rising by 5.3% in Germany and just 0.8% in France, while the annual increase in Austria moderated to 9% in the second quarter from 13.4% in the first. in the pound’s exchange rate over recent days may take a fresh toll on British purchases from the eurozone ahead of the busy Christmas shopping period. Speaking Saturday during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi poured cold water on any hopes that Britain’s vote would have negligible economic consequences. “The event is very significant,” he said. “To think that it won’t have any consequence would be to hope for too much.” The eurozone economy slowed in the three months to June, and despite August’s pickup in industrial production, surveys and other economic figures indicate it grew Portugal Seen Risking Debt-Crisis Relapse World Watch CHINA Soccer Team’s Failure Fuels National Angst Back-to-back losses over the past week have all but derailed China’s World Cup qualifying campaign, prompting soulsearching over the country’s lavishly funded bid to become a global soccer power. China crashed to a 2-0 defeat in Uzbekistan on Tuesday, just days after a morale-sapping home loss to war-torn Syria, leaving it at the bottom of its qualifying group. Chinese head coach Gao Hongbo took responsibility and resigned, but others pointed to a chronic underinvestment in grass-roots soccer, masked by the increasingly free-spending ways of elite professional clubs. “So what if broadcast rights to the Chinese Super League were sold for an astronomical 8 billion yuan ($1.2 billion)? So what if foreign players in the Chinese Super League are now worth hundreds of millions of yuan?” asked the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, People’s Daily. Some respected sports commentators echoed the sentiment on social media. Soccer is China’s top spectator sport, but its national men’s team ranks 78th globally and has only once qualified for the World Cup, in 2002. —Chun Han Wong Portugal struggles to grow and lower its debt. GDP, change from a year earlier Quarterly data Investment Quarterly data 3% 15% 2 10 1 5 Debt-to-GDP ratio 140% 130 120 0 0 –5 –1 110 –10 –2 –15 –3 –20 –4 –25 100 90 –30 –5 2010 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 2010 ’11 80 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 2010 ’11 Source: Portuguese statistics agency (GDP and investment); International Monetary Fund (debt-to-GDP) rope is from overcoming the hangover from the debt crisis that early in this decade challenged the euro currency’s survival. In Germany, the eurozone’s dominant country, officials worry that Portugal’s loosening of its fiscal policies over the past year has raised the risk of a new crisis and the need for another bailout program. “Portugal is making a major mistake if they no longer stick to what they have committed to,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said in late June, “They will have to request a new program. And they will get it.”Mr. Schäuble’s tough talk reflecting ed his longstanding view that Southern European debtor countries such as Portugal and Greece need to take the medicine of fiscal rigor and economic overhauls if they want to leave the crisis era behind them. His comment stirred anger in Portugal, where Prime Minister António Costa brushed aside concerns of a debt default. Still, talk persists of a possible new debt crisis here, and its likely fallout for Europe. “A bailout request for Portugal, while unlikely to have the spillover effects to other countries we saw in 2011,...would again raise questions about the future of the eurozone and would likely make the political climate in Europe even more hostile,” said David Schnautz, a strategist at Frankfurt-based Commerzbank. Recent indicators show Portugal’s economy struggling more than expected. On Friday, the central bank forecast a 1.8% decline this year in gross fixed capital formation, a measure of public and private investment in the country. The economy is growing at an annual rate of 0.9%, half what the government esti- JAPAN the killing of Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Imam Hussein, during Islam’s seventh-century split into Sunni and Shiite sects. Hussain Ali, a nearby resident, described hearing two explosions early in the evening, followed by the sound of gunfire. Streets around the mosque were swiftly cordoned off by security forces, Mr. Ali said. The Taliban, Afghanistan’s largest insurgent group, denied responsibility for Tuesday’s attack. The group, which regularly stages terror attacks in the capital, is mostly Sunni but has called attacks on Shiites un-Islamic. Afghanistan is a majority Sunni country and has been largely spared the sectarian strife ravaging other countries in the region. Machinery Orders End Winning Streak Japanese core machinery orders, a leading indicator of business investment, were down 2.2% in August from July, the first decline in three months, government data showed Wednesday. The decline was smaller than the 5.5% forecast by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and the Nikkei. Compared with a year earlier, orders were up 11.6%. August economic data was scattered—retail sales down 1.1% from July, industrial production up 1.5%, exports flat. Business investment for the year ending in March is expected to be up 4.6%, according to the Bank of Japan’s tankan survey released this month. —Mitsuru Obe ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa brushes concerns aside. mated for this year, as consumption and exports register only modest growth. While other European economies are also struggling, ratings firms have singled out Portugal’s low growth and high public and private debt But a series of unclaimed kidnappings and the deadly bombing in Kabul targeting ethnic Hazaras in July, a mostly Shiite minority group, has revived concerns about the persecution of Shiites. Police had warned civilians in Kabul to be vigilant ahead of Tuesday’s ceremony because of a heightened risk of attack. —Ehsanullah Amiri SWITZERLAND Authorities Expand Probe of 1MDB Fund Switzerland’s Office of the Attorney General expanded its scrutiny of Malaysian public investment fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd., or 1MDB, by opening a criminal probe of a small Swiss lender recently penalized as a toxic combination. Remedies applied under the country’s €78 billion ($87.6 billion) bailout program now look insufficient. Starting in 2011, a center-right government raised taxes, cut spending and overhauled the labor market in an effort to reduce the budget deficit and encourage hiring. Unlike troubled eurozone peer Greece, Portugal left the bailout program, in 2014. But the appetite for change waned last year as elections approached. Promises to make the public sector leaner and more efficient were scrapped. The IMF and the European Commission, Portugal’s bailout lenders, said the government failed to tackle a high privatesector debt that limited investment and growth. Mr. Costa’s Socialist government, which came to office in November with the support of three far-left parties, quickly reversed cuts in public-employee salaries. It has also raised the minimum wage and begun to eliminate a special tax on income. The retreat from austerity was meant to spur consumption and boost the economy. That hasn’t happened. Consumption rose 1.7% on year in the second quarter compared with 2.6% in the first and a 2.4% forecast for 2016, Portugal’s statistics agency said. Families are slowing their consumption of durable and nondurable goods. The IMF said the policy reversals “generated uncertainty that appears to be a significant factor behind the slowdown in investment.” —Marcus Walker in Berlin contributed to this article. for its 1MDB ties. The Swiss attorney general’s office said on Wednesday that internal “deficiencies” at Zurichbased Falcon Private Bank AG may have caused it to fail to prevent alleged money laundering associated with 1MDB. The Swiss authorities opened a broad 1MDB investigation last year, and have previously said they placed another Swiss bank, BSI SA, under a related criminal probe. The status of that probe is unclear. The Wall Street Journal reported last year that the Swiss attorney general’s office was examining transactions tied to 1MDB that were made through Falcon. A spokesman for the bank said on Wednesday that it has been cooperating with the attorney general’s office, and AFGHANISTAN Gunman Kills 14, Wounds 26 in Kabul At least one gunman attacked worshipers at a popular Shiite shrine in Kabul on Tuesday, Afghan officials said, killing at least 14 people and wounding 26 others on one of the sect’s holiest days of the year. It was the latest in a string of assaults targeting Shiite muslims in Afghanistan, following a July sectarian bombing claimed by the Islamic State extremist group that killed 80 people in the capital. There was no claim of responsibility for Tuesday’s attack. It began at one of the busiest times at the Kart-e-Sakhi shrine, as hundreds gathered to commemorate the Ashura day of mourning that commemorates CARLOS GARCIA RAWLINS/REUTERS LISBON—With his company’s pottery selling briskly, Joaquim Beato, president of Molde Faianças SA, said ideally he would plow some of the profit into research and new-product development. Instead the company won’t spend a single euro. Mr. Beato said he worries the Portuguese his company’s sales in Europe will slacken as economies across the continent slow and import less. He is also concerned about obstacles at home—uncertainty over the Socialist government’s policies and the difficulty of borrowing from a banking system burdened by bad loans. “Between investing and not investing, it is just safer not to invest,” said Mr. Beato, who employs about 100 people. “My mood right now is ‘Let’s go easy.’ ” Portugal’s souring investment climate and weak economic growth are raising concern across Europe and beyond that the country, which required an international bailout five years ago, could choke again on a debt that is now nearly 130% of its gross domestic product. The International Monetary Fund warned in September that while the debt is manageable for now, risks to Portugal’s capacity to repay are rising, leaving the country “uniquely vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment.” A Portuguese relapse would deal a blow to the morale of a European Union already reeling from sluggish growth, populist politics and Britain’s decision to leave the bloc. It would show just how far Eu- Losing Steam HORACIO VILLALOBOS/CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES BY PATRICIA KOWSMANN Mourners in Jérémie, Haiti, on Wednesday carried the coffin of a woman killed by Hurricane Matthew. Brexit Stance BY NICHOLAS WINNING LONDON—Prime Minister Theresa May’s government on Wednesday defended itself from accusations it isn’t giving lawmakers enough say in its plans to leave the European Union, saying it welcomed scrutiny but needed to protect its negotiating position. Since announcing last week that the government would trigger the two-year window for exit talks by the end of March, the Conservative leader has come under increasing pressure over her decision to plan and negotiate Brexit without parliamentary approval. She has also described in general terms the government’s approach, taking a hard line on demands for control over immigration in opposition to EU rules for access to its tariff-free single market. Many in Parliament have questioned that direction, worried that the economy would suffer. At a debate called by the opposition Labour Party, lawmakers criticized the government over what they said was its lack of transparency. Keir Starmer, Labour’s spokesman on leaving the EU, said the government was being too opaque about a move with such major repercussions. “It’s hard to think of a more significant set of decisions with…serious consequences than the terms upon which we leave the EU,” he said. A spokeswoman for the government reiterated that there would be no vote on triggering Article 50. The government is facing a legal challenge on the decision, with the case due to start on Thursday. Speaking on behalf of the government, David Davis, the minister in charge of the Department for Exiting the European Union, said it welcomed parliamentary scrutiny, but “it must not be used as a vehicle to undermine the government’s negotiating position.” Mary Creagh, a Labour member of Parliament, said that while Britons had voted to leave the EU, they didn’t vote for “their food to become more expensive, the wages of low-paid workers to be hit, and for jobs to be lost in the manufacturing, agricultural and banking sectors, which is what we are in danger of if we choose the wrong exit from the European Union.” that it “will continue to do so in order to contribute to an expeditious clarification of the allegations against the bank.” A spokeswoman for BSI declined to comment. The latest disclosure follows announcements from regulators in Switzerland and Singapore that cited alleged breaches of money laundering rules at Falcon related to its dealings with 1MDB. On Tuesday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore ordered Falcon to shut down its local branch, while Switzerland’s financial regulator Finma ordered the bank to disgorge 2.5 million Swiss francs ($2.5 million) in what it said was illegally generated profit. The alleged misappropriation of billions of dollars from 1MDB has been the focus of investigations in a number of countries. The Swiss attorney general’s office recently said it suspects an alleged “Ponzi scheme” at the fund, which was established in 2009 by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak. The Wall Street Journal has previously reported that global investigators believe more than $1 billion originating from 1MDB landed in Mr. Najib’s bank accounts. Mr. Najib has denied any wrongdoing. 1MDB has denied wrongdoing and has said it is cooperating with authorities. Switzerland’s Finma said on Tuesday that roughly $3.8 billion in assets associated with 1MDB were transferred to accounts at Falcon between 2012 and last year, and “were generally moved on quickly.” The bank’s management had been alerted to the unusual and relatively risky transactions, Finma said, but failed to properly investigate them. —John Letzing P2HW287000-0-A00700-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, October 13, 2016 | A7 U.S. NEWS Team was in touch with agencies, lawmakers over campaign response to use of private server BY BYRON TAU AND COLLEEN MCCAIN NELSON WASHINGTON—Hillar y Clinton’s political team sought to contain any potential fallout over her use of a private email server by communicating with government agencies, enlisting help of congressional allies and managing public statements, newly released emails show. Hacked emails belonging to Clinton campaign Chairman John Podesta were posted by the website WikiLeaks this week, showing her staff debating the tone and substance of responses to media after the 2015 disclosure of her use of a private email server while leading the State Department during President Barack Obama’s first term. In several electronic exchanges, almost all from last year and this year, Mrs. Clinton’s staff appeared to be in communication with government officials about the email issue. One campaign official is shown telling colleagues about a coming procedural step, which was part of the public record, that he suggests he learned from Justice Department officials. In another case, an attorney for Mrs. Clinton appeared to know the contents of a State Department document release concerning speeches by former President Bill Clinton before it was made public. Mrs. Clinton’s presidential campaign hasn’t confirmed or denied the authenticity of the email trove posted by WikiLeaks, but a spokesman said the release of apparently stolen internal communications showcases Russian attempts to interfere in the U.S. election on behalf of Mrs. Clinton’s Republican rival, Donald Trump. U.S. intelligence agencies have publicly accused Russia of directing hacks and leaks aimed at top Democratic Party officials, but they haven’t reached a conclusion in the specific breach of Mr. Podesta’s emails. Mr. Podesta told reporters Tuesday that he had been in touch with the Federal Bureau of Investigation about what he called a “criminal hack.” “If you think you’d like all the contents of all your emails for 10 years dumped into public, think about how that feels. It doesn’t feel great,” Mr. Podesta said. Campaign spokesman Brian Fallon, who worked at the Justice Department before joining the campaign in 2015, is shown in the emails to be giving a heads-up about a preliminary hearing in a lawsuit brought by a Vice News reporter against the State Department. Justice Department attorneys were representing their colleagues at State in the matter. The information provided to Mr. Fallon was in the court’s docket. “DOJ folks inform me there is a status hearing in this case this morning, so we could have a window into the judge’s thinking about this proposed production schedule as quickly as today,” Mr. Fallon wrote to his colleagues on the campaign. The Clinton attorney, Heather Samuelson, is shown providing a detailed accounting of Mr. Clinton speeches discussed in documents that were to be released by State. She also reported how much the former president, who commanded sixfigure sums for his speaking engagements, was paid. “There is one request where speaking fee would have been paid by Turkish govt—WJC’s office declined this,” Ms. Samuelson wrote, referring to Mr. Clinton. “And one speaking engagement with fee from Canadian government, which he did do.” Ms. Samuelson didn’t return a request for comment. State Department spokesman John Kirby said that the agency “does not comment on alleged TOM WILLIAMS/CQ ROLL CALL/GETTY IMAGES Emails Show Role Of Clinton’s Camp Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and campaign Chairman John Podesta in Washington. leaked documents,” but that it is common practice for the department to contact any organization or person whose proprietary or personal information might be involved in a Freedom of Information Act release. The Obama administration has acknowledged some communication with Mrs. Clinton’s campaign staff, given that the emails involved government records and eventually a Federal Bureau of Investigation probe that was closed with a recommendation against the prosecution of Mrs. Clinton or her team. Mrs. Clinton’s campaign was also in touch with at least two Senate Democrats, Patrick Leahy Continued from Page One support among his base, which includes many voters who feel estranged from the party establishment. The decision means that a campaign already marked by personal attacks is primed to grow uglier in the remaining four weeks. Mr. Trump plans to keep up a relentless assault on Mrs. Clinton, including her use of a private email server and allegations about her husband, former President Bill Clinton, with the intention of keeping some of her supporters home on Election Day, his advisers said. “As more and more Republicans defect, it’s no surprise that Donald Trump is getting more and more desperate,” said Clinton press secretary Brian Fallon. “In the closing weeks, he can run his campaign however he chooses, but Hillary Clinton is going to continue talking about her positive vision for improving the lives for everyday Americans.” It remains questionable whether Mr. Trump’s strategy can turn around the electoral math. His core supporters don’t make up a majority of the electorate, and many analysts see no path to victory unless he adds to them, even if Mrs. Clinton’s vote total is driven down. And a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows him trailing the Democratic nominee by 9 percentage points among likely voters, though his standing improved after his performance in Sunday’s debate, particularly with Republicans. MIKE SEGAR/REUTERS PLAN Donald Trump broke from debate preparation to greet supporters on Saturday in New York City. Mr. Trump’s advisers said they and their candidate are convinced he can win, noting that in the three weeks before the first debate, Mr. Trump climbed in the polls to even or ahead of Mrs. Clinton. Most Republican lawmakers wouldn’t comment on their candidate’s announced change of tone. A written statement provided by Mr. Ryan said the Wisconsin congressman was “focusing the next month on defeating Democrats, and all Republicans running for office should probably do the same.” Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who worked on the presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney and George W. Bush, said Mr. Trump’s approach would drive turnout among his base, “but alienating his own party and swing voters won’t grow his vote. His remarks and tactics can have the adverse effect of energizing the Democratic base.” Mr. Trump began losing ground after his panned performance in the first presidential debate last month, which was followed by news of a nearly billion-dollar business loss in the mid-1990s that may have shielded him for years from federal income taxes. After the debate, Mr. Trump persisted in tweets and in comments on the campaign trail about the weight gains of a former Miss Universe, the woman mentioned by Mrs. Clinton dur- ing the first debate as the target of humiliating remarks by Mr. Trump. Then on Friday, all attention turned to the video of Mr. Trump’s talking about groping women’s genitals and forcibly kissing women. Mr. Trump huddled with advisers in New York City that night. That is when they resolved to implement the “scorched earth” strategy that had been held in reserve, one adviser said. The campaign recruited appearances by three women who had accused Mr. Clinton of sexual misconduct and a fourth angry at Mrs. Clinton for her work as a legal-aid lawyer defending a man accused of raping the woman Texas Becomes a Drag on the Economy BY ERIN AILWORTH AND BEN LEUBSDORF HOUSTON — Texas helped lead the U.S. out of recession, thanks in part to the shale-drilling revolution. But after more than two years of slumping oil prices, the state is now a sore spot for the national economy. Petroleum prosperity helped usher in an economic boom in Texas, which added one out of every seven new American jobs from 2010 to 2014. But since the end of 2014, the state has lost more than 91,000 jobs in oil and gas extraction and miningsupport activities, nearly half of the total national job losses in those categories. Texas payrolls were up 1.6% in August from a year earlier, trailing the national pace of job growth for the 11th consecutive month. The collapse in oil prices— from more than $100 a barrel in June 2014 to roughly $50 today—has been felt nationwide. But the largest economic impacts are in Texas, the nation’s second-most-populous state, which accounts for roughly 9% of U.S. economic output. The Texas economy grew 3.9% a year on average from 2010 to 2015, nearly twice the U.S. pace, according to data from the U.S. Commerce Department. But the state’s output barely grew in this year’s first quarter, weighed down by losses in the mining sector, which includes the oil-and-gas industry. The Texas-centered energy bust has sent national business spending lower. The hiring slowdown in Texas accounts for some of the national deceleration in job creation since last year. And the Texas-centered energy bust has helped drive a national pullback in business spending on structures and equipment, a drag on overall economic growth. While the pain in the oil patch hasn’t driven the state into recession, Houston, the nation’s energy capital and fourthlargest city, is on the brink. The Houston metro area saw healthy growth in economic output in 2015, according to the Commerce Department. But the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has said its index of Houstonarea economic conditions signaled a “modest contraction” in the first half of 2016 and that while the worst of the oil bust may be in the past, “Houston is not yet recovering.” Bill Gilmer, an economist at the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston, estimates that 70,000 energy-related jobs have disappeared in the area since late 2014. He believes more losses are on the way. “We may very well be in a modest recession right now,” he said. Houston has a thriving medical-center complex and a bustling trade port, the second-largest in the U.S. by total tonnage. But the fall in oil prices is wearing on the metro area, home to nearly 6.7 million people. The region’s unemployment rate in August was 5.8%, up from 4.9% a year earlier—one of the largest year-over-year jumps among big U.S. metro areas. The vacancy rate in Houston skyscrapers has risen to nearly 16% from 11% when oil prices began falling in the summer of 2014, according to NAI Partners, a commercial-real-estate firm. Consumer spending, which accounts for most U.S. economic output, has weakened in Houston. Data from the state comptroller’s office shows city sales-tax revenue down about 4.5% this year. The bust has cut into the state’s coffers. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, along with the state’s lieutenant governor and speaker of the house, in June called on all state agencies to cut 4% from their 2018-19 biennial budgets. —Lynn Cook contributed to this article. of Vermont and Dianne Feinstein of California, as the campaign worked to quell a controversy about classified email discovered in Mrs. Clinton’s inbox. “Talked to Leahy’s CoS [chief of staff] yesterday who says that they are working on another letter to State asking about over classification. He didn’t have a ton of details. Sounds like they are working with Feinstein,” one of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign staffers wrote to colleagues. A spokesman for Mr. Leahy said overclassification has “long, long been a policy concern” for the senator. A spokesman for Ms. Feinstein said concern about overclassification was “not a new policy issue for her.” In other instances, Mrs. Clinton’s staff debated the tone of the campaign’s response and whether humor was politically risky. In one exchange, Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri floated the idea of Mrs. Clinton “making a joke about the email situation at the Emily’s List dinner tonight,” referring to a group that supports pro-choice Democratic women. “We don’t know what’s in the emails, so we are nervous about this,” said Mandy Grunwald, a campaign media consultant. —Laura Meckler, Rebecca Ballhaus and Peter Nicholas contributed to this article. when she was a girl. Mr. Clinton has denied the allegations. On Saturday, as leading Republicans withdrew their endorsements for the GOP nominee, Mr. Trump prepared for the debate. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus received many calls and emails from Republicans urging him to pull his funding from the Trump campaign. Most donors and elected officials weren’t aware that Mr. Priebus participated in Mr. Trump’s debate preparation. In rapid-fire fashion, according to two people there, the RNC chairman asked Mr. Trump questions such as: “I’m a dreamer with illegal-immigrant parents and a little brother, what will you do with me?” and, “I’m a laid-off factory worker, how specifically can you bring back my job?” Supporters had gathered on the street below, and Mr. Trump put on a suit jacket and went downstairs to greet them. He returned upbeat, several advisers said, and resolved to fight harder against his opponents, including those in his own party. Around 6 p.m., he retired to his penthouse for the night. The advisers looked at each other. They wanted their boss to prepare more, but they also noticed that Mr. Trump seemed re-energized. Only five people in the campaign knew the four women would appear with Mr. Trump before the debate. On Sunday, they were brought before news cameras. When the debate began, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump didn’t shake hands. The Re- publican nominee took the stage ready to deliver on his goal of going on the attack. Mrs. Clinton raised public revulsion over Mr. Trump’s taped comments about women, as well as his earlier remarks disparaging Hispanics and Muslims. A new Wall Street Journal/ NBC News poll suggests Mr. Trump’s performance might have stopped his political bleeding. He had trailed Mrs. Clinton by 11 points in Journal/NBC News polling on Saturday and Sunday, conducted shortly after disclosure of the videotape. Mrs. Clinton’s lead in the polls fell Monday. Mr. Trump narrowed the gap with more support from Republicans, the poll found. Some 83% of Republicans said in postdebate polling that they would vote for Mr. Trump in a head-tohead matchup against Mrs. Clinton, up from a weak 60% in weekend surveys. Over the three days of polling, before and after the debate, Mrs. Clinton’s lead stood at nine percentage points, 46% to 37%, among likely voters on a ballot including third-party candidates After attacking the Clintons during Sunday’s debate, Mr. Trump moved against GOP leaders who had never fully embraced him as candidate or nominee. Mr. Trump has said they risk alienating his supporters who make up the biggest share of the Republican base. “I may be limping across that finish line,” Mr. Trump said at a a rally Monday. “But I’m getting across that finish line.” U.S. Watch IMMIGRATION Funds Running Out For Detaining Illegals The Department of Homeland Security is a month away from running out of money to detain illegal immigrants—a fresh sign of federal budget dysfunction emerging less than two weeks after Congress funded the government through early December. Homeland Security officials planned to ask the White House for a quick transfer of funds to enable them to continue to detain undocumented immigrants, according to officials familiar with the discussions. If they don’t get more money by early November, officials will be forced to stop holding newly captured illegal immigrants, including high-priority arrests at the border, the officials said. The shortfall has caught the Obama administration by surprise, coming so soon after Congress passed a continuing resolution to keep the government operating through Dec. 9. The measure passed in September aims only to maintain funding at previous levels, which has turned out to be far short of the money needed to handle a new influx of undocumented people entering the U.S. —Devlin Barrett NORTH CAROLINA More Deaths Possible After Floods Kill 19 Floodwaters continued to rise in eastern North Carolina, and at least 19 people in the state have died as a result of Hurricane Matthew, Gov. Pat McCrory said Wednesday. Most of the deaths were from drowning, Mr. McCrory said, and more deaths were possible, as some rivers weren't expected to crest until the weekend. The number of people killed in the U.S. by the storm is now at least 30. Flooding has driven thousands in North Carolina from their homes. There were 143,000 customers without power, and schools, courts and many businesses remained closed, Mr. McCrory said. —Valerie Bauerlein P2HW287000-0-A00800-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. A8 | Thursday, October 13, 2016 FROM PAGE ONE TECH SNOW Continued from Page One Dash Snow. The suit accuses McDonald’s of painting him as a corporate sellout and putting his legacy at risk. Jade Berreau, the administrator of his estate and mother of his only child, alleges that hundreds of McDonald’s restaurants across the globe are adorned with replica images of “SACE”—the tag, or signature, used by Mr. Snow. He died in 2009 at the age of 27. Mr. Snow, the lawsuit says, would never have consented to what it calls a “brazen” misappropriation of the Soho artist’s “original graphic expression.” “Nothing is more antithetical to Mr. Snow’s outsider ‘street cred,’ ” says the complaint, filed last week in Los Angeles federal court, “than association with corporate consumerism—of which McDonald’s and its marketing are the epitome.” McDonald’s said its graffiti décor, which also includes partment of Labor. U.S. tech workers are getting a smaller piece of the economic pie created from what they produce. As of 2014, employee compensation in computer and electronic-parts making was equal to 49% of the value of the industry’s output, down from 79% in 1999, according to the Commerce Department. While other tech jobs have been created in sectors such as software publishing, that growth is smaller than the losses in tech manufacturing. Since 2002, the number of tech startups has slowed, hurting job creation. In a 2014 study, economists Javier Miranda, John Haltiwanger and Ian Hathaway said the growth of tech startups accelerated to 113,000 in 2001 from 64,000 in 1992. That number slumped to 79,000 in 2011 and hasn’t recovered, according to the economists’ calculations using updated data. The causes include global competition and increased domestic regulation, says Mr. Haltiwanger, an economics professor at the University of Maryland. Another problem is that fewer tech companies have gone public, which can enrich early employees and spawn more jobs as companies grow. Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business, says there were 548 initial public offerings of technology-related companies from 2001 to 2015. and authenticity. Commercial misuse can be “morally offensive to them,” said Mr. Deitch. An early booster of the genre, Mr. Deitch, while at MOCA, co-curated a major exhibit of graffiti and other street art. In New York, he invited Mr. Snow and collaborator Dan Colen to turn his Grand Street gallery into a giant hamster nest. Mr. Snow, a scion of arts aristocracy (he was a greatgrandson of French-American arts patron and oil-industry heiress Dominique de Menil), acquired a reputation as the “Kurt Cobain” of the New York gallery world. As a teen, he roamed subway tunnels and rooftops, snapping Polaroids and spraying his “SACE” tag. His photographs, collages and sculptures often contained scabrous images of sex and hard drugs, or featured his own body fluids. Some art critics see Mr. Snow as a shock-mongering poseur. His admirers say he effectively captured a post-9/11 sense of angst and doom. Museums like the Whitney in New York and London’s Saatchi Gallery have also promoted his work. One piece, a defiled New York Post cover of Saddam Hussein, sold for $8,000 last month at Sotheby’s. Other Snow works have commanded six figures. Mr. Snow’s mystique also extended to his reckless lifestyle, which ultimately doomed him. In July 2009, his family confirmed reports that he had died of a drug overdose. The perceived association with McDonald’s has “diminished the value of Mr. Snow’s work,” Ms. Berreau’s complaint alleges. In a statement made through her lawyer, she said that suing was a last resort. Ms. Berreau’s lawsuit alleges “straightforward copyright infringement.” But proving that may not be so simple, said Christopher Buccafusco, an intellectualproperty scholar at Cardozo School of Law in New York who isn’t involved in the case. For Ms. Berreau to prevail, he said, she’ll have to show that McDonald’s interior designers copied the “SACE” logo and also prove that the tag in question possesses an originality distinguishable from generic graffiti. “Courts and the U.S. Copyright Office have been pretty resistant to the notion that the design of letters is copyrightable,” the professor said. If McDonald’s prevails, that won’t guarantee a win in the court of public opinion. The company was on the defensive earlier this year when a Brixton location in South London got a graffiti makeover. Some residents saw it as misguided pandering. “In an inner-city area like Brixton, tagging is a bit of blight,” said Jay Rayner, restaurant critic for London’s Observer and longtime Brixton resident. While he admires some graffiti in the area as “fantastic,” he deems McDonald’s indoor-tagging to be “just a bit crass.” A McDonald’s spokeswoman defended the aesthetic, saying that the new look had been generally well-received. After rising in the 1990s, employment at computer and electronic firms has fallen by more than 40%, though a smaller number of jobs has been created in other tech sectors. Number of employees Inflation-adjusted total payroll value 2.0 million $1.00 billion Manufacturing computers and electronics 1.5 1.0 Manufacturing computers and electronics 0.75 0.50 Recession Software publishing 0.5 0.25 0 Software publishing 0 1990 ’00 ’10 ’15 1990 ’00 200 0 1996 2.8 ’00 ’10 IPO year 2015: Fitbit 2015: 2.6 2014:: Weibo, 2014 GoPro, Alibaba 2.4 2012:: Facebook, 2012 Trulia, Yelp 2.2 ’15 Technology IPOs, by year Total employees at all companies with IPOs in a specific year 3.0 million ’10 400 Few technology companies are doing initial public offerings, which can help spawn more jobs as those companies grow. And companies that went public in the five years before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 have more employees overall than those with IPOs since then. 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2009:: Ancestry.com, 2009 OpenTable 2.0 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 1.8 1.6 1.2 1999: 1999: Priceline, Expedia, CareerBuilder 1.0 1998: 1998: eBay 1.4 2004:: Google, 2004 Salesforce.com 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 1997:: 0.8 1997 Ameritrade, 0.6 Amazon.com 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 0.4 0.2 0 1996 ’97 ’98 ’99 2000 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 Note: Manufacturing figures are through September; publishing figures are through August; IPO figures are for full years. Sources: Labor Department (payrolls, employees); professors Jay Ritter, Martin Kenney and Donald Patton (IPO employment) Andrew Van Dam, Jon Hilsenrath and Bob Davis/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. NeXT Inc., another computer maker, to revitalize U.S. manufacturing. Macintosh computers rolled off the line at an Apple factory “like a Holiday Inn toaster turns out toasted bagels,” says Brent Schlender, who co-wrote a biography of Mr. Jobs. By the time Mr. Jobs died in 2011, Apple made nearly every one of its products outside America, largely in Asia. Apple halted U.S. manufacturing in 2004 and didn’t resume until 2013, when it began producing Amazon.com uses robots at about a third of its warehouses in the U.S. Above, a site in Tracy, Calif. scrawl on hanging light fixtures, is one of a dozen interior-design motifs recently introduced as part of a broader reimaging of stores. A company spokeswoman declined to comment on the litigation. A similar infringement action was brought against the company in March by Eric Rosenbaum, a Los Angeles tattoo artist also known as Norm. He alleged in federal court there that McDonald’s ripped off a graffiti work he titled “NO-R-M Fire Escape on Bartlett” over boarded-up windows on a vacant Brooklyn building. Mr. Rosenbaum said he spotted an image that looked suspiciously like “Norm” on a wall at a Tokyo McDonald’s several years ago. Similar “tags,” or letters in graffiti parlance, are splashed on McDonald’s walls in France and London, too. Mr. Rosenbaum doesn’t object to the commodification of his work. “Since 2000, Norm has been a street artist for hire,” his complaint says, listing companies such as CocaCola Co. and Rockstar Inc. as Mac Pro personal computers in Austin, Texas. Apple says it employs about 80,000 workers in the U.S., or two-thirds of the company’s overall workforce. About half the U.S. employees have retail jobs. An Apple spokeswoman says it is “creating jobs in new industries like the App Economy,” or apps developed for the iPhone, and is “a major contributor to U.S. manufacturing” by buying American-made components and materials. Mr. Schlender, the Jobs biographer, says it made sense to assemble the iPod outside the U.S. when production began in 2001. “The components were hard to make, and putting them together was a labor-intensive job because everything was so small,” he says. “You had to piece it together by hand.” The computer-hardware exodus spread. International Business Machines Corp., the company that turned computers into a big business, was born in Endicott, N.Y., and built its first factories there. From 2001 to 2015, though, employment in computer and electronics manufacturing in surrounding Broome County fell about two-thirds to 3,055 jobs. Warehouses and transportation companies scooped up some laid-off workers at salaries of less than half those paid in high-tech manufacturing, says Christian Harris, an analyst for the New York State De- From 1990 to 2000, by contrast, 1,853 went public. The latest generation of hot tech startups has attracted a mountain of venture-capital funding and gigantic valuations, led by Uber Technologies Inc., which was worth $68 billion as of June. The influx of wealth has created more prosperity in Silicon Valley but exemplifies the economic polarization rippling through America. WhatsApp had more than 450 million users world-wide when Facebook bought the messaging service for $19 billion in 2014, turning founder Jan Koum into a billionaire several times over. At the time of the acquisition, WhatsApp had 55 employees. Economists call the phenomenon “skill-biased technical change.” The spoils of growth go to those few people with skills and luck and who are best positioned to take advantage of new technology. The five largest U.S.-based technology companies by stockmarket value—Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook and Oracle Corp.—are worth a combined $1.8 trillion today. That is 80% more than the five largest tech companies in 2000. Today’s five giants have 22% fewer workers than their predecessors, or a total of 434,505 as of last year, compared with 556,523 at Cisco Systems Inc., Intel, IBM, Oracle and Microsoft in 2000. Amazon uses 45,000 small robots at about one-third of its U.S. warehouses to automate order processing. The robots look like bread boxes on wheels, lifting modular shelves stuffed with products and carrying the shelves to workers who pick out pieces. An Amazon spokesman says the company has added about 200,000 employees since it began using the robots in early 2012. Amazon has 268,000 employees world-wide. In coming decades, machines are likely to replace new forms of routine work done by humans. From 1991 to 2001, the number of secretaries declined about 35%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of textile and apparel workers fell 37%. For a long time, those with bachelor’s degrees in science seemed to be safe from automation-related layoffs because their cognitive knowledge was tough for computers to duplicate. Less-educated workers who dispense personal service, such as home health aides or masseuses, also seemed safe. Harvard University economist David Deming estimates that the hollowing-out of work spread to programmers, librarians and engineers between 2000 and 2012. As much as $2 trillion worth of human economic activity could be automated away using existing technologies, such as Amazon’s robots, in coming years, consulting firm McKinsey & Co. estimates. Knightscope Inc., based in Mountain View, Calif., makes robots that serve as night watchmen. About three dozen are on patrol, including at shopping malls, corporate campuses such as Microsoft’s in Mountain View and the new home arena of the Sacramento Kings. Knightscope clients pay $7 an hour per robot. “Robots don’t complain,” says Stacy Stephens, a Knightscope co-founder and vice president of marketing and sales. “There’s no pension. And there’s no worker’s comp,” he adds. Technology Booms, But Not For American Workers DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG NEWS Continued from Page One and wages slowed, and income inequality rose as machines replaced routine, low- and middleincome, human-powered work. This outcome is a far cry from what many political leaders, tech entrepreneurs and economists predicted about a generation ago. In 2000, President Bill Clinton said in his last State of the Union address: “America will lead the world toward shared peace and prosperity and the far frontiers of science and technology.” His economic team trumpeted “the ferment of rapid technological change” as one of the U.S. economy’s “principal engines” of growth. The gap between what the tech boom promised and then delivered is another source of the rumbling national discontent that powered the rise this year of political outsiders Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. The tech-powered disappointment is subtler than the anger caused by the impact of China’s import invasion and the perceived failures of government institutions like the Federal Reserve in guiding the economy. Instead, it stems from the idea that Americans expected larger economic gains from these amazing new machines and the companies that created them, not a widening between the haves and have-nots. “There is a growing sense of frustration that people haven’t seen the progress that their parents and grandparents did,” says Erik Brynjolfsson, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist whose work has chronicled how technology widens the income gap between rich and poor. “That frustration spills into the political arena.” In 1997, Time magazine named computer-chip maker Intel Corp.’s chief executive, Andrew S. Grove, who died in March 2016, as “Man of the Year.” Amazon.com Inc. CEO Jeff Bezos won in 1999. Companies spent billions of dollars reprogramming their computers for the Year 2000 bug, and profitless dot-com startups won giant valuations from optimistic investors. The bursting of the dot-com bubble in early 2000, the recession in 2001 and deepening globalization proved to be turning points for the tech economy and its broader impact on American prosperity. U.S. tech companies accelerated the reshuffling of their sup- ply networks to China and elsewhere in Asia, places filled with growth potential and cheap labor. Hardware makers concentrated production overseas to supply U.S. and foreign computer makers. After rising through the 1990s, total employment at computer and electronic firms in the U.S. sank to 1.03 million in August 2016 from 1.87 million in 2001, according to Labor Department statistics. Employment at semiconductor makers fell by half to 359,000 in the same period. In the 1990s, Micron Technology Inc. was a successful example of how far the tech industry reached beyond its nexus in Silicon Valley. Based in Boise, Idaho, Micron was founded by Idaho farmers and businessmen, including the late billionaire J.R. Simplot, who supplied McDonald’s Corp. with most of its frozen french fries and had “MR SPUD” license plates on his pickup truck. Micron’s workforce quadrupled to 18,800 between 1994 and 2000, with the growth overwhelmingly in the U.S. The company fought with Japan in the 1980s to restrict imported memory chips and protect its U.S. base. These days, Micron is a case study in how technology companies have exported jobs to other countries. As of 2013, the most recently disclosed data, Micron had 11,300 workers in the U.S., down from 14,000 in 2000. The company’s non-U.S. workforce surged to 19,600, mainly in China and other Asian nations, from 4,800. Securities filings show that the percentage of employees at Micron who were in the U.S. shrank to 37% from 74% in the same period. The company stopped disclosing the annual percentage in 2014. A Micron spokesman says much of the growth outside the U.S. came from acquisitions. “What we’re doing is replacing more resources there to support the growing customer base—both the multinationals that are leveraging the low labor-cost areas in China, in particular, as well as the indigenous Chinese manufacturers,” Mike Sadler, Micron’s head of sales, told analysts in 2014. He is now Micron’s strategic chief. The Semiconductor Industry Association says semiconductors remain a big U.S. business and are America’s third-largest export, trailing cars and aircraft. Apple Inc. followed a similar path. Co-founder Steve Jobs made it a mission early in his Apple career and after creating past employers. The problem, his lawyers contended, was that McDonald’s alleged “unauthorized use” of Norm stained his reputation and caused the artist to lose several six-figure licensing deals and contracts. Mr. Rosenbaum’s lawyers withdrew the lawsuit in May. They declined to elaborate. The plaintiff in the Snow case, meanwhile, appears to be digging in. “Our highest priority is securing the immediate removal of this artwork from all McDonald’s stores to prevent any further trauma to Dash’s family or his legacy,” said Jeff Gluck, the lawyer representing Ms. Berreau. Art dealer Jeffrey Deitch, former director of The Museum of Contemporary Art, Los Angeles, said some street artists are so antiestablishment that they refuse to allow their work to be displayed at all. Others, he said, are more amenable and will work for a corporation—if they feel the project has “the right attitude” P2HW287000-0-A00900-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, October 13, 2016 | A9 ARTS & ENTERTAINMENT A Picture of Picasso As a Portrait Master BY ANNA RUSSELL AFTER THEIR LOVE AFFAIR SOURED, Dora Maar remarked of Pablo Picasso’s work, “All his portraits of me are lies. They’re all Picassos, not one is Dora Maar.” Over eight decades, Picasso produced tens of thousands of paintings, photos, prints, sculptures and ceramics. At every point, he showed a fascination with portraits, his own and others. Now, some of them are taking center stage at a new exhibition at London’s National Portrait Gallery. “Picasso’s Portraits” follows the artist’s gaze through about 80 depictions of friends, lovers, patrons and others in his circle. Several works on loan will appear in the U.K. for the first time, before moving to Barcelona’s Picasso Museum in the spring. The artist’s earliest attempts, made as a teenager under the direction of his father, are realistic. Those paintings were easy for him, says curator Elizabeth Cowling. “The struggle was to do something more conceptual,” she says. “To pare a face down to an essence that epitomized the person.” In the sketchbooks of his late teenage years, Picasso turned away from naturalism, repeatedly casting in simple lines and bold colors the faces of his artist friends who popularized the Barcelona cafe Els Quatre Gats. In 1901, when Picasso was around 20, the poet Jaume Sabartés was sitting in a Parisian cafe waiting for the artist to arrive. “Just when my desolation was keenest, Picasso appeared,” Sabartés wrote. A few days later, so did a portrait of the poet—a surprise for Sabartés, since Picasso had made no sketches at the cafe and had painted from memory. Sabartés said later that he had fallen “like a fly into the trap of Picasso’s stare.” Picasso often used portraiture to experiment. He made portraits in his blue and rose periods, named after colors predominant in two stages of his early career, and in his photos and sculptures. Sometimes the artist tried different styles on the same model, capturing his lover Fernande Olivier in cubist and sculptural iterations that appear in the show. He rarely worked on commission and kept many of the portraits in his own collection or gave them as gifts to his subjects. “By the 1920s, having one’s portrait drawn by Picasso was a badge of honor in the art world,” Ms. Cowling writes in the exhibition catalog. Some of Picasso’s most famous portraits are cubist masterpieces: faces with eyes askance and noses turned out at odd angles. “There are so many realities that in trying to encompass them all one ends in darkness,” he said in the late 1950s. “That is why, when one paints a portrait, one must stop somewhere, in a sort of caricature.” The exhibition includes renderings of the composer Igor Stravinsky, the French author and filmmaker Jean Cocteau and the Spanish artist Santiago Rusiñol. Ms. Cowling limited the show to portraits of named individuals, leaving out works with an unknown sitter. So the nameless “The Old Guitarist” isn’t featured. Not all of the portraits came easily. When Picasso went to paint Gertrude Stein in 1905, he found himself stalled. Long, intense sittings were required until, according to Stein, a frustrated Picasso finally declared, “I can’t see you anymore when I look.” Only when the avant-garde author left for a trip to Italy was Picasso able to complete the portrait, which now hangs in New York’s Metropolitan Museum of Art. Picasso usually preferred not to paint an individual from life, says Ms. Cowling, but Stein was pleased. “For me, it is I, and it is the only reproduction of me which is always I, for me,” the author said. Toward the end of his life, Picasso sped up production, sometimes churning out multiple works a day. He turned increasingly to art of the past. Ms. Cowling included these riffs on oldmaster paintings in which the artist sometimes blends more than one subject—or works himself into the canvas. Picasso spent four months working from Velázquez’s famous group portrait, “Las Meninas” (often translated as “The Ladies-in-Waiting”). The London exhibition includes a few works from this Picasso series. In 1972, at the age of 91, Picasso completed one of his final self-portraits, in which his face appears angular and skull-like. “I think maybe I touched on something,” he told a biographer at the time. “It’s not like anything I’ve done before.” That late portrait is in the London exhibition as well. This large-scale celebration of his portraits, which ends in London on Feb. 5, probably wouldn’t have surprised the artist. “You have an interesting face. I would like to do a portrait of you,” he told another lover, Marie-Thérèse Walter, in 1927, according to John Richardson’s “A Life of Picasso.” “I feel we are going to do great things together. I am Picasso.” ART Crowdfunding A Relic BY INTI LANDAURO ALL THE KING’S HORSES and all the king’s men couldn’t put Humpty together again, but the Louvre is hoping that with €500,000 ($555,000) it can take apart and put back together a 50ton ancient Egyptian mausoleum. The Paris museum this week launched a crowdfunding campaign to restore the 4,400-year-old tomb, a tactic it has used since 2010 to both purchase objects such as the 18th-century Teschen Table (€800,000) and restore pieces including the second-century Winged Victory of Samothrace (€1 million). In recent years, the Louvre has increased its appeals to donors as the state, which accounts for about 50% of its financing, has capped funding. The mausoleum is one of the most important objects in the Louvre’s Ancient Egypt collection, says Vincent Rondot, director of Egyptian Antiquities at the museum. To address decades of wear and tear and new findings related to its original structure, the museum plans to remove the limestone bricks from the current structure so they can be cleaned and reassembled into a new, larger structure, adding missing pieces found in the museum’s depository. The restoration campaign, launched Tuesday, had drawn an estimated 240 donors by Wednesday, reaching 6% of the funding goal. In previous projects, donations averaged €150-€200. Acquired by the Louvre in 1902-03, the mausoleum was part of a larger structure known as a mastaba built above the burial site of Egyptian nobleman Akhethotep in Saqqara, the necropolis for the ancient Egyptian capital Memphis. The narrow chapel, now located in the museum’s Sully wing, is decorated with sculpted and painted frescoes, including a large portrait of Akhethotep. Mr. Rondot says the current display, set up in 1934, is now considered slightly inaccurate. During excavations carried out in Saqqara since the 1990s, scientists linked to the Louvre discovered that the mausoleum stood almost 20-feet tall—much larger than the existing Louvre structure. Mr. Rondot‘s team later found four blocks belonging to the mastaba in the Louvre’s depository. MUSÉE DU LOUVRE SUCCESSION PICASSO/DACS LONDON, 2016 (2) Picasso’s ‘Woman in a Hat (Olga)’ (1935), left. Below, the artist’s wife was painted in a more realistic mode in ‘Portrait of Olga Picasso’ (1923). MUSIC BY JIM FUSILLI Indio, Calif. DESERT TRIP, the three-day concert held last weekend here, was a chance to honor and say a collective goodbye to Bob Dylan, Paul McCartney, the Rolling Stones, the Who, Neil Young and Roger Waters of Pink Floyd, once musical miraclemakers and now mostly predictable, seasoned entertainers. Given that it’s been quite a long while since they were near the top of their game, expectations needed to be managed downward. But for the most part, Desert Trip succeeded as a celebration and music event. On Friday night, Mr. Dylan and his five-piece band opened Desert Trip with a defiant performance. Sitting in a semicircle with Mr. Dylan on grand piano or singing at center stage without his guitar, the group offered familiar Dylan standards and explored his more recent recordings: “High Water (For Charley Patton),” “Pay in Blood” and a poignant “Love Sick.” Mr. Dylan said not a word to the audience and after 15 songs, he and the band left the stage, returned to play a stinging “Masters of War,” and then departed, having set the bar high for the remaining acts. Anyone who has seen the Rolling Stones in the past 20 years could have guessed much of the setlist, but the band delivered, especially when the blues were on display. Mick Jagger broke out his harmonica for several tunes, in- cluding Eddie Taylor’s “Ride ’Em On Down,” a song that will appear on the Stones’ all-blues “Blue and Lonesome,” an album scheduled for a December release. A nasty “Midnight Rambler” allowed guitarists Keith Richards and Ron Wood to engage in slinky interplay. Mr. Jagger joked that Desert Trip was in fact “the Palm Springs retirement home for genteel English musicians,” but if the Stones are no longer dangerous disrupters, they can still rock the blues deep into the night. Similarly, on Sunday evening, the Who performed without much edge, but plenty of muscle and enough special moments to allow the audience to revel in its legend. His voice faltering and with cues missed, Roger Daltrey had a rough evening, so what worked best were the extended outros and instrumentals including “The Rock” from “Quadrophenia” and excerpts from “Tommy” with Pete Townshend raging on guitar above the supple power provided by bassist Pino Palladino and Zak Starkey. In “My Generation,” Mr. Daltrey sang the line “I hope I die before I get old” without irony, adding, “We’re still here.” A triumphant finale of “Won’t Get Fooled Again” proved the Who was more than merely present. Like a grizzled balladeer arriving to dispense wisdom on love and nature, Mr. Young opened Saturday’s show with a solo set of his reliable folk tunes. He was joined by Promise of the Real and guitar- ist Micah Nelson, who support him on his 2015 anti-agribusiness album, “The Monsanto Years.” The band gave the singer-songwriter’s early songs a lift, particularly with their pleasing vocal harmonies, but Mr. Young was determined to showcase “The Monsanto Years,” which is inferior to his most notable work, and his set lost its momentum before concluding with snarling electric rock. Mr. McCartney’s Saturday night program was overwhelming, wonderfully so: With his long-time four-piece backing band, he dug deep into the Beatles catalog for relative obscurities “I’ve Got a Feeling,” “I’ve Just Seen a Face,“ “Being for the Benefit of Mr. Kite” and a gorgeous version of “And I Love Her”—and sang “In Spite of All the Danger,” recorded by the Quarrymen, featuring Mr. McCartney, John Lennon and George Harrison, in 1958. During the dazzling 37-song set, Mr. McCartney embraced sentimentality without becoming maudlin, paying tribute to Lennon with “Here Today,” written after his death; performing Harrison’s “Something”; and inviting a clearly thrilled Mr. Young to join in during a three-song medley. Playing his knotty bass parts with disarming ease, honoring Jimi Hendrix by soloing on electric guitar on “Foxy Lady,” and moving to piano for his sing-along ballads “Let It Be” and “Hey Jude,” among others, Mr. McCartney’s performance was Desert Trip’s best. The festival concluded with a GETTY IMAGES Genuflecting to Rock Gods Mick Jagger and Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones perform at Desert Trip. performance by Roger Waters, who, like Mr. McCartney, went well beyond his most familiar songs. He revived rarities from Pink Floyd’s “A Saucerful of Secrets” and “Meddle,” from 1968 and ’71, respectively, and explored the band’s brimming catalog by tying together songs from various albums into unique medleys. Mr. Waters also took best advantage of the festival’s 240-foot-wide, high-definition video screen above the stage with trippy or confrontational films and photography to support his ambitious prog rock, folk and highbrow pop. The result was an extraordinary spectacle. Prior to the event, Desert Trip, which will be repeated here this weekend, was an easy target for snark by those who mocked it as boomer self-indulgence—Oldchella and Geezerpalooza, they called it. But delivered with admirable professionalism, occasional flashes of brilliance and even a touch of sentimentality, the music justified both lifelong loyalty and a threeday celebration. Whether it came along several decades too late or right on time, Desert Trip was an unforgettable experience. Mr. Fusilli is the Journal’s rock and pop music critic. Email him at jfusilli@wsj.com and follow him on Twitter @wsjrock. P2HW287000-0-A01000-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. A10 | Thursday, October 13, 2016 OPINION REVIEW & OUTLOOK R Philippine Tax Reform odrigo Duterte has adopted some pay no tax at all. The bills would simplify the alarmingly populist policies in his first income-tax brackets and index them to infla100 days as Philippine President, in- tion. The tax on investment income would cluding extrajudicial killings fall to 10% from 20%, and Duterte moves in the of suspected drug dealers. But the estate tax and realhis economic program is detax to 6% from 20%. right direction: lower estate signed to promote fast growth Those changes could free up rates, fewer loopholes. the market for land and rather than pander to the demands of the left wing. In parother assets, since title is ofticular, he deserves praise for ten left in the name of dead grasping the nettle of tax reform. people to avoid taxes. Last overhauled in 1997, the tax code needs The bad news is that class warfare is reapurgent attention. Because tax brackets were pearing. Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez not indexed to inflation, Filipinos earning originally proposed that the top marginal rate minimum wage in Manila pay a 25% marginal on personal income would fall to 25%. But now tax rate. The top rate of 32% applies to annual an extra tax on the “ultra rich” means that the income above $10,284. top rate would effectively rise to 35% on inOfficially Filipinos pay the highest income come above $102,902. taxes in Southeast Asia. But most find ways to That would have little impact on the coundodge the tax man, meaning the government try’s richest families, whose income comes says it collects a mere 6.2% of the income tax from investments. Instead it would hit the owed. By comparison, the U.S. Internal Reve- most talented and productive professionals, nue Service estimates it collected 83.7% of giving them less incentive to seek additional taxes owed from 2008 to 2010. work. Currently fewer than 1,000 filers report The Philippines’ tax on corporate profits such income. is the highest in the region at 30%, but corThe reform packages also remove exempruption and loopholes mean companies pay tions from the value-added tax and increase ex11.6% of that bill. The government take from cise taxes on fuel and sugar to make up for cutcorporate tax is 3.5% of GDP, much less than ting the income and profits rates. And the final neighbors with lower rates. More than one- bill contains a hodgepodge of luxury and excise third of the country’s blue-chip companies taxes in case revenues fall short. But most likely have so many deductions that they pay the tax receipts will rise as lower rates encourage minimum 2% of their profits. The punitive compliance, especially if the reforms are folrates thus fail at their most basic purpose of lowed by a tax amnesty as proposed. raising revenue. The new Philippine President’s shoot-fromLast month Mr. Duterte introduced five the-lip personal style is doing harm to the rule legislative packages to bring down rates and of law and foreign policy. But he seems to unwiden the tax base. The corporate-profit tax derstand that tax reform will promote growth rate would fall to 25%, while the minimum and help him pay for his public building plans, rate would rise to 15% and deductions would expected to cost 7% of GDP in coming years. be cut. That’s an improvement, but Indonesia The country desperately needs new roads, railplans to cuts its corporate tax to between ways, seaports and airports to keep up with the 17% and 20%. 7% growth rate that Mr. Duterte inherited, and Individuals earning less than $5,142 would tax reform is crucial to the effort. F Clinton’s Me-Too Tax Credit or several years a group of conservative tion to be valuable. The tax freebie does nothmedia types in the U.S. has lectured Re- ing to increase economic growth and it costs publicans that the key to their political a bundle in lost revenue. salvation is to expand the Mrs. Clinton began her Hillary picks up a child tax credit. Well, they’ve campaign with a promise to now found their candidate— increase the credit—details to favorite idea of GOP Hillary Clinton, and therein come, as they did Tuesday— redistributionists. lies a political lesson. and also boost the separate This week Mrs. Clinton procredit for child-care expenses posed to double the current and mandate “free” maternity $1,000 per child tax credit to $2,000 up to age leave. Donald Trump answered with his own 4. She’d also expand eligibility to people who expanded child subsidy in September—a dearen’t working or earning very little. duction that would allow parents to write off Oh, and in a press release, the Clinton cam- the average state-cost of child care for up to paign threatened that the new proposal is “only four kids while applying the earned-income tax a down payment” on other family-friendly tax credit to deliver more benefits to low-income ideas—or not-so-family-friendly. Mrs. Clinton non-taxpaying families. is promising “tax relief” for “those without The political lesson is that once Republicans children, and with older children.” If it takes cede the liberal premise that the tax code is a village to raise a child, she now wants to sub- the appropriate venue for social engineering, sidize the entire village. liberals will always come through with a higher The child tax credit, which was created in transfer payment and a chicken-in-every-tax1997, is a tutorial in how social spending pot pitch. Marco Rubio proposed lifting the through the tax code becomes its own politi- child tax credit to $2,500, not that it did him cal engine. It was originally a $500 deduction. much political good. The George W. Bush tax bill of 2001 converted But if Mr. Rubio were the GOP nominee, a it to a partially refundable credit of $1,000, lot would be different in this race. For example, on the notion that low-income Americans Mrs. Clinton would probably have proposed don’t owe enough income taxes for a deduc- tripling the credit to $3,000. M A Pound of Worry arkets have reacted sourly to British As for households, they rely on imports Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit for more than 40% of the clothes they buy, agenda, with the pound on Tuesday 30% of their food, half of their shoes and hitting a historic low against nearly 57% of the spare Those theories that a basket of currencies. Some parts for their cars. Britain of our Keynesian friends are sterling’s fall will help the also imports much of its saying that’s nothing to worry fuel, and the weak pound is U.K. economy? Wrong. helping to push gasoline about, since a falling currency will also boost British exports prices to their highest level and gain market share by in a year and rising. That making them cheaper. Not quite. means employers will quickly face demands It’s true that some U.K. merchants—luxury for higher wages as a weak pound leads to retailers and hotels come to mind—have prof- higher prices. ited as a weak pound makes Britain more atTo protect themselves from these effects, tractive to foreign visitors. A September sur- U.K. firms have been raising, not cutting, vey of manufacturers also shows export orders pound-denominated prices. As the pound fell are picking up somewhat, though manufactur- 15% between November 2015 and July, exporters also are starting to worry about the poten- ers increased pound-denominated prices by tial for rising import costs. 11%, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. But those benefits obscure the limits to This would be a boon if companies used their how much Britain can gain from a cheaper additional sterling profits to invest in capital pound. In Japan a 40% yen depreciation be- upgrades and additional capacity at home. But tween 2012 and 2014 barely budged export British businesses are likely to delay investvolumes. Japanese export growth still trails ments while they wait to see what trading rethat of neighbors such as South Korea, lations Britain develops after Brexit and against which a weak yen is supposed to offer whether Mrs. May will liberalize the economy an advantage. to stimulate growth. Given these worries, it’s This happens because demand for exports especially hard to see how a slumping pound from economies such as Britain’s depends on will magically boost exports. more than simple price competition. Britain Japan again leads the way: Despite rising long ago replaced price-sensitive industries profitability for exporters as the yen deprecisuch as textiles and cars with pharmaceuticals, ated, capital expenditure hasn’t returned to its precision tools and other ultra-high-tech com- pre-2008 level and companies instead are panies whose customers will buy their prod- hoarding cash or engaging in financial engiucts at nearly any price because they can’t neering such as a record level of share buyeasily find substitutes. backs this year. Meanwhile, the costs of a cheap pound will Rather than pretend that a plunging pound be considerable for an economy as dependent is a disguised blessing, Brexit supporters on imports as Britain is. Roughly 25% of the should treat it as a warning. Global investors, value of Britain’s final exports originated on whom Britain depends to finance its trade abroad in the form of imported inputs in 2011, deficit, are worried about regulatory, trade and the most recent year for which we have data, immigration policies that would deter investand that figure has risen steadily. Rising in- ment and depress growth. Britain can’t devalue put costs limit any pricing benefits from a its way to success. Only an aggressive freecheap pound. trade, pro-liberalization agenda will work. The Kompromat Attack On Donald Trump Republican voters knew Donald Trump was a philandering playboy before they nominated him—one of the many reasons choosing him was a BUSINESS mistake. WORLD Philandering is a By Holman W. standard part of the Jenkins, Jr. process by which a wife is traded in for a younger one, which Mr. Trump did twice. No secret tape is necessary. In one of his memoirs, Mr. Trump boasts of the “very happily married and important women” who supposedly succumbed to his improbable charms. Still, talk about importing Russian methods (i.e., “kompromat”) into the U.S. election, with the tape leak, tax leak and the stagy cameo by the aggrieved beauty queen. Then came the Obama administration’s formal accusation on Friday of Russian meddling in the political process. This seemed less aimed at warning off Russia than at underscoring a Democratic talking point that Mr. Trump is a Russian agent. For the sake of America, the election better be a blowout, because otherwise “rigged” will be the cry from Breitbart and the rest of the pro-Donald media. Mr. Trump, with his glaring deficiencies and vulnerabilities, was always going to be the most stringent test of whether it’s plausible for anybody other than a career politician to get elected president. And yet the tape fuss is hard to grok from a certain perspective. The American people twice elected Bill Clinton knowing he was a compulsive womanizer. His party put him up for re-election in 1996 despite the apparent knowledge of many senior members that he had conducted a sexual liaison with a 22-year-old White House intern. Even today, his presidency is remembered fondly by the American people. His wife, who stuck by him through serial infidelities, is now riding his long-term coattails to the White House. The only difference is that Mr. Trump hasn’t spent considerable private and public resources covering up his indiscretions, because he didn’t treat them as indiscretions. They were a selling point of his public persona. To Trump voters and the undecided, nothing changed in the past week. If you supported, or were thinking about supporting Mr. Trump, you were already discounting his marital history, his flamboyant lifestyle (advertised repeatedly on Howard Stern’s radio show), his bankruptcies, his use of realestate-friendly tax loopholes. You supported him, presumably, because of his stance that the globalization megatrend has been managed with scant concern for its effect on American workers. Yet Trumpism may surprise us by turning out to be less a death cry of the working class than a harbinger of its reappreciation. The kompromat attack on Mr. Trump clearly has its orchestrated elements—witness the readiness of Mrs. Clinton’s media allies to follow up her mention of the offended 1996 Miss Universe in the first debate. Witness the media’s seamless leap to treat the infantile sex banter of two man-babies on an upholstered bus as the equivalent of “sexual assault.” His gross foibles are an easy target, but isn’t the election about more than that? Mrs. Clinton spoke of having private and public stances on issues in one of her Goldman Sachs speeches. She should have mentioned a third principle: Democrats run on character assassination, as Mr. Obama also did against Mitt Romney, rather than frankly own up to a rent-seeking, social-engineering, Big Government agenda that voters reject when it’s presented plainly to them. With his debate performance the real-estate developer didn’t revive his presidential hopes but showed he can remain a populist icon on which future media ambitions can be built. Mr. Trump, we’re likely to find, doesn’t actually plan to lose the $100 million he claims to have spent on the race. (He is not stupid.) NBC is in an interesting position, having sat on a tape in its possession for 11 years on which Mr. Trump was unwittingly recorded mugging for an apparently appreciative NBC TV personality. The network claims it was the victim of a leak. When do first-class news organizations leak their scoops to their competitors? NBC was Mr. Trump’s partner in “The Apprentice.” It must have thousands of hours of outtakes. Let’s hear it all, NBC, the stuff that makes Mr. Trump look good, bad or indifferent, in the name of balance. Otherwise, perhaps the network would like to register as a pro-Clinton PAC. God, Man and Politics— We Can All Do Better At sundown on Tuesday I began the annual fast for Yom Kippur— the Day of Repentance. In the Jewish tradition, true repentance requires an unqualified POLITICS verbal acknowledg& IDEAS ment of wrongdoing, By William genuine remorse (as A. Galston distinguished from, say, “I’m sorry if my statement offended anyone”), and the sincere, determined resolve not to repeat the wrong. In the case of sin against another human being rather than God alone, repentance also requires an effort to appease the wronged party with a direct apology as well as material compensation when appropriate. I will leave it to my readers to determine how close today’s politicians come to meeting this test. But the real point of Yom Kippur isn’t so much to stand in judgment over politics as to remind us of the significance of what lies outside and beyond politics. In fact, it is a critique of the mind-set to which we are prone to succumb when we make politics central to our lives. Consider two passages from the Yom Kippur liturgy. The first—an assault on our pride—is the injunction to set aside our daily preoccupations and see our lives from the perspective of the Divine. It reads: “What are we? What is our life? Our goodness? Our righteousness? Our power? Our victories? What shall we say in Your presence, Lord our God and God of our ancestors? Heroes count as nothing in Your presence, famous people are as if they never existed, the wise seems ignorant, and the clever ones as if they lack reason. The sum of their acts is chaos; in Your presence the days of their lives are futile.” This is—and I must underscore the point—not a rejection of worldly concerns. Judaism is not an otherworldly religion. How could it be, when so much of its law and theology is devoted to the way Jews conduct their daily lives, when every act is regulated with an eye to the imitation of divine attributes as we are given to understand them? Nor do the liturgy’s piercing questions and crushing pronouncements endorse an existentialist outlook. Our lives are not meaningless. But they only take on meaning when we are forced—or force ourselves—to remain aware of the limits of our striving. Only America’s greatest president— Abraham Lincoln—in his greatest speech—the Second Inaugural—came close to achieving this feat. Lincoln dared to interpret the Civil War as a divine punishment—visited on all Americans—for the sin of slavery. Despite the intensity of this conflict, he insisted, we must strive to act in the spirit of “malice toward none” and “charity for all.” This speech is a standing rebuke to the spiritual myopia of today’s mean-spirited partisanship. Another passage from the Yom Kippur service attacks our confidence that we are the masters of our fate and that we can plan with confidence for the future. Our lives, rather, are contingent and unpredictable. “On the Fast of the Day of Repentance it is sealed: Who will live and who will die; who will live a long life and who will come to an untimely end.” The issue is not only whether we will live, but also how. On Yom Kippur, reads the liturgy, it will be determined “Who will be at peace and who will be troubled; who will be serene and who will be disturbed; who will be tranquil and who will be tormented; who will be impoverished and who will be enriched; who will be brought low, and who will be raised up.” From the divine perspective, these particular judgments are threads in a fabric of justice and mercy. But we are not privy to this standpoint. From our human perspective, which is all we have, these judgments seem chaotic and frightening. No matter how smoothly our lives seem to be proceeding, we and the ones we love are vulnerable to appalling reverses that come suddenly, seemingly from nowhere. We cannot lead our own lives as though we could die tomorrow. Nor can leaders conduct the affairs of state as though a catastrophe could nullify their best efforts. The task, rather, is to maintain a nearly contradictory duality—passionate immersion in our worldly mission, coupled with the abiding awareness of its fragility and its limits. Surely we can do better—as individuals, as community members, as citizens, as a nation. I will emerge from this Yom Kippur with renewed hope that the better angels of our nature can prevail over the ugliness of the present day. P2HW287000-0-A01100-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, October 13, 2016 | A11 OPINION By Judy Shelton T he International Monetary Fund last week sharply lowered its growth forecasts for the U.S. and other advanced economies. Only three months ago, in July, the IMF was predicting U.S. growth of 2.2% this year. But in the October edition of its World Economic Outlook report, that figure has been cut to 1.6%. The report’s authors blame “political discontent” and policy uncertainty for the deteriorating prognosis—in other words, they’re worried about Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the IMF is forecasting dismal 1.1% growth for the United Kingdom in 2017, which is half the Conservative leaders in the U.S. and Britain are standing up for those left behind by ultralow rates. 2.2% it predicted in April before Britons voted in June to leave the European Union. The downgrade reflects the fund’s opinion that uncertainty over Brexit will depress consumer spending as well as business investment and hiring. In both cases, as Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s chief economist, recently told the press, the problem has to do with the political consequences of sluggish economic performance. “In short, growth has been too low for too long,” he said, “and in many countries its benefits have reached too few, with political repercussions that are likely to depress global growth further.” No one would disagree that disappointing economic results since the 2008 financial meltdown have spawned political agitation. People want change. But it’s interesting— quite telling, really—that the IMF assumes democratically determined outcomes will make things worse. Maybe a new Republican administration in the White House will actually shake up the status quo by launching a successful pro-growth economic agenda. Maybe Brexit will prove liberating and serve to enhance the U.K.’s growth potential. The IMF plays an instrumental role in global finance, and its innate disdain for the wisdom of voters helps fan widespread political dissatisfaction. It suggests that elites, as they pursue broad economic objectives, disregard the hardship that their policy decisions impose on many average workers. The fact that some people—global financialmarket participants—are enriched by those same policies fuels social and political tensions. The monetary policies enacted by the world’s leading central banks are a predominant mechanism for doling out differential financial rewards— exacerbating income inequality in the process. The Federal Reserve’s ultralow interest rates, intended to stimulate economic growth, have flooded wealthy investors and corporate borrowers with cheap money, while savers with ordinary bank accounts have been obliged to accept next-to-nothing returns. Yet unconventional monetary policy has failed to deliver the anticipated boost to growth. Worse, the Fed’s large-scale interventions in credit and investment markets have created significant distortions that threaten financial stability. We can’t ASSOCIATED PRESS/BLOOMBERG A Trans-Atlantic Revolt Against Central Bankers U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Theresa May. expect Main Street to passively absorb the costs of a future Wall Street bailout; there is a limit to public patience with monetary policy that not only smacks of favoritism but might also be causing more harm than good. Mr. Trump has expressed strong views about the Fed’s dubious contribution to economic well-being. He appears to have struck a chord with voters by challenging both the model and the motives of an independent government agency that insists on exercising total discretion. Mr. Trump readily admits that, as a developer, he likes low interest rates; at the same time, he recognizes that others have been penalized by the Fed’s monetary-policy decisions. As he said in a Sept. 12 CNBC interview: “The people that were hurt the worst are people that saved their money all their lives and thought they would live off their interest, and those people are getting just absolutely creamed.” Mr. Trump also believes that “we are in a bubble right now” and that it may well come crashing down with the next uptick in interest rates, which he says is being delayed for political reasons. Questioning the judgment of Fed officials is considered out of bounds—one isn’t supposed to “politicize” America’s central bank. But in a similarly audacious move, British Prime Minister Theresa May took on her own nation’s central bank in an Oct. 5 speech at her Conservative Party’s annual conference. “People with assets have got richer,” she said. “People without them have suffered. People with mortgages have found their debts cheaper. People with savings have found themselves poorer.” The “bad side effects” of the Bank of England’s “superlow interest rates and quantitative easing,” Mrs. May said, have taken a toll on social and political relations. The British leader may not have caused monetary officials to bristle quite as much as Mr. Trump did with his overt charge of political bias, but her message was undeniably confrontational: “A change has got to come, and we are going to deliver it, because that’s what a Conservative government can do.” Both Mr. Trump and Mrs. May say that the economy should work for everyone—not merely the privileged few. A nation’s government should act in the interests of everyday, working-class people. If fundamental reforms are needed to ensure that central-bank policies don’t stratify citizens into winners and losers, so be it. Money should function as a reliable measuring tool and dependable store of value—not as an instrument of government policy. It’s not as if the IMF has any new prescriptions. In a Sept. 28 speech at Northwestern University, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde dismissed as “pessimists” those who think central banks are not stimulating economic growth. “In my view, there is more policy space—more room to act—than is commonly believed,” she declared. “Monetary policy in advanced economies needs to remain expansive at this stage.” Pesky voters, it seems, have had quite enough. Ms. Shelton, an economist, is the author of “Money Meltdown” (Free Press, 1994) and co-director of the Sound Money Project at the Atlas Network. She is a member of the Trump Economic Advisory Council. From Crisis to Creative Destruction at Samsung By Geoffrey Cain T he Galaxy Note 7 recall and cancellation isn’t the first time Samsung has suffered a quality crisis. But the scale and nature of this fiasco shows that the company can no longer rely on its traditional approach to setbacks. Instead, it must look for new ways to drive the company’s development. Samsung has long used crises to motivate employees. In 1995, the new mobile phones that Chairman Lee Kun-hee sent out as gifts proved to be faulty. He had workers don headbands that read “quality first” and smash $150 million worth of phones and fax machines. Then they lighted a bonfire. Then a bulldozer razed whatever remained. It may have been overkill, but Chairman Lee wanted to send a clear message: If we keep making bad products, we’ll come back and do this again. It’s a story that is repeated constantly within the company. This time, there were no mass incinerations, no tears shed, no Samsung Men standing in formation. That’s partly because Chairman Lee has been hospitalized ever since his heart attack in May 2014. His son, Jay Y. Lee, Samsung’s vice chairman, is effectively running the company. More importantly, Samsung, having reached the top of the global industry, can no longer rely on the culture of crisis that once kept it moving. The Galaxy Note 7 blunders far outstrip what happened in 1995— and are unthinkable for a world-class corporation. Samsung now needs to prevent crises so it can stay on top, not use them to catch up. Today the company is staffed by some of the world’s finest engineers and designers whose careers don’t depend on an emperor. The workforce is more professionalized but less enthusiastic. Employees say the company is beset by bureaucracy, complacency and petty internal politics—similar to the problems that undid erstwhile rival Sony. Under Vice Chairman Lee, Samsung has made some progress at reform, selling off noncore assets and affiliates to trim down this sprawling empire. But the pace of change has been modest. Now an unusual trifecta of problems is suddenly converging, offering Vice Chairman Lee an opportunity to Combustible smartphones are a symptom of deeper management problems at the Korean company. prove himself. In the short term, he will have to reboot the Galaxy phone brand. In the long term, he’ll need to define a clearer direction into new growth areas and against Chinese handset makers. Finally, and the most sensitive of all, he’ll need to simplify Samsung’s complicated ownership structure and smooth relations with shareholders such as Elliott Management. The solutions for the first two depend on fixing the company’s hierar- chical culture. The rush to beat Apple’s iPhone—and the reluctance of its authoritarian bosses to have an open dialogue about Samsung’s problems—probably contributed to the Galaxy Note 7 fiasco. Vice Chairman Lee will need to dismiss aging managers who are too enamored with Samsung’s old engineerfocused culture. He’ll need to make room for a new generation of thinkers in marketing, design, software and other creative fields who can be entrusted to manage their own affairs. Lay-offs will invoke a different kind of crisis, but one that Samsung needs to have to open space for a younger and less authoritarian generation. Addressing this dynastic culture will require uncomfortable steps. That includes weakening the founding Lee family’s hold on Samsung Group. This is the vast web of companies that own pieces of each other through cross-shareholding. For decades, activist shareholders have challenged this notoriously unaccountable governance structure. The Lee family effectively controls the group—including its crown jewel, Samsung Electronics—with a relatively small number of shares. Passing control across generations has created governance problems, including criminal convictions and presidential pardons of Chairman Lee, and the convictions of a handful of other executives. Weaning Samsung off a culture of reverence for its founding family will require untangling its cross-shareholding structure and forming a holding company. On Oct. 5, Elliott Management proposed just this sort of consolidation. Samsung hasn’t publicly responded. But it’s in the longterm interests of both the Lee family and minority shareholders to streamline Samsung’s ownership structure. This will free up its people and resources to make good products rather than play family politics, and raise its undervalued share price on stronger investor confidence in its governance. Mr. Cain, a Seoul-based journalist, is writing a book about Samsung due from Crown. Europe Flounders to Fill the Void Left by America In interviewing Barack Obama in July 2010 for his book “Obama’s Wars,” Bob Woodward asked the president, “You can’t lose a war or be perEYE ON ceived to lose a war, EUROPE can you?” By John Mr. Obama anVinocur swered: “I think about it not so much in the classic, do you lose a war on my watch? I think about it more in terms of do you successfully prosecute a strategy that results in the country being stronger rather than weaker at the end of it.” Six years later, after Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, the U.S. still isn’t winning—this time, against Islamic State’s slaughterhouse ideology. And by ducking under the couch in the face of Russia’s successful engagements in Syria and Ukraine. The newest loss is unconscionable. Russia and Syria’s bombing of Aleppo is an abomination, a siege of humankind’s moral sense. And Mr. Obama’s failing response is a dismal one: an evasion of reality by a U.S. president, projecting the image of a defeatist America at the edge of nihilism. The result among American allies in Europe isn’t a sudden assertion of their own responsibility. Instead, there’s a burst of heightened nationalism, opportunism and anti-Americanism. Or pro-Russian accommodation, including reports last week of hard-line German right-wingers jeering at Chancellor Angela Merkel with shouts of “Merkel to Siberia, Putin to Berlin.” In France, Le Figaro has written of America’s “impotence” and its “humiliation” by Russia. Last week, Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung ran a commentary with the headline: “The World’s Policeman Quits the Job.” “The U.S. president,” the commentary said, “once the sheriff in the Mid- dle East, is there but only with a pocketknife. That fills no one with respect or fear. The American world power has nothing more to say in the Middle East. Its allies don’t take it seriously, and its opponents even less.” That’s a marker of considerable contempt. If you consider Mr. Obama’s 2010 articles of faith on judging the success of American power in relation to his action in Syria, Ukraine or against Islamic State—rejecting the country’s “classic” win/lose report card in favor of his notion of “successfully prosecuting” conflicts in vague, intellectualized terms—then he misled both Americans and their European friends. The evidence comes from his 2006 book, “The Audacity of Hope,” where the would-be president made this promise: “So long as Russia and China retain their own large military forces and haven’t fully rid themselves of the instinct to throw their weight around . . . there will be times when we must again play the role of the world’s reluctant sheriff. This will not change—nor should it.” Mr. Obama added that he opposed the idea that the United Nations Security Council “should have a veto over our actions.” Washington’s absence gives European leaders free rein to indulge their worst foreign-policy instincts. Now, while Germany pushes to set up a European Union military headquarters distinct from NATO, Germans there argue to its allies in Brussels that this inept U.S. has lost too much trust for the EU to ignore, a European official told me. As the argument goes, there is no America to intervene where it is needed, and too much of an overbearing U.S. where it is unwanted. For America-taunters, here’s a free-fire zone. Last week, Sigmar PUBLISHED SINCE 1889 BY DOW JONES & COMPANY Rupert Murdoch Executive Chairman, News Corp Robert Thomson Chief Executive Officer, News Corp Gerard Baker Editor in Chief William Lewis Chief Executive Officer and Publisher Rebecca Blumenstein, Matthew J. Murray Deputy Editors in Chief DEPUTY MANAGING EDITORS: Michael W. Miller, Senior Deputy; Thorold Barker, Europe; Paul Beckett, Asia; Christine Glancey, Operations; Jennifer J. Hicks, Digital; Neal Lipschutz, Standards; Alex Martin, News; Ann Podd, Initiatives; Andrew Regal, Video; Matthew Rose, Enterprise; Stephen Wisnefski, Professional News; Jessica Yu, Visuals Paul A. Gigot, Editor of the Editorial Page; Daniel Henninger, Deputy Editor, Editorial Page WALL STREET JOURNAL MANAGEMENT: Trevor Fellows, Head of Global Sales; Suzi Watford, Marketing and Circulation; Joseph B. Vincent, Operations; Larry L. Hoffman, Production EDITORIAL AND CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS: 1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y., 10036 Telephone 1-800-DOWJONES DOW JONES MANAGEMENT: Ashley Huston, Chief Communications Officer; Paul Meller, Chief Technology Officer; Mark Musgrave, Chief People Officer; Edward Roussel, Chief Innovation Officer; Anna Sedgley, Chief Financial Officer; Katie Vanneck-Smith, Chief Customer Officer OPERATING EXECUTIVES: Jason P. Conti, General Counsel; Nancy McNeill, Corporate Sales; Steve Grycuk, Customer Service; Jonathan Wright, International; DJ Media Group: Almar Latour, Publisher; Kenneth Breen, Commercial; Edwin A. Finn, Jr., Barron’s; Professional Information Business: Christopher Lloyd, Head; Ingrid Verschuren, Deputy Head Notable & Quotable Heather Mac Donald, writing Sunday in “Trumped-Up Outrage” on City Journal’s website: Now why might it be that men regard women as sex objects? Surely the ravenous purchase by females of stiletto heels, push-up bras, butthugging mini-skirts, plunging necklines, false eyelashes, hair extensions, breast implants, butt implants, lip implants, and mascara, rouge, and lipstick to the tune of billions a year has nothing to do with it. Females would never ever exploit their sexuality to seek attention from men. . . . The sudden onset of Victorian vapors among the liberal intelligentsia and political class at the revelation of Trump’s locker-room talk is part and parcel of the Left’s hypocrisy when it comes to feminism and sexual liberation. . . . But the feminists can’t have it both ways: declaring that women should be equal to men in all things and then still demand a chivalric deference to female’s delicate sensibilities. Either women are the same as men or they’re not. It is particularly galling to see the selective resurrection of Victorian values from the same crowd that has been pushing transgender locker rooms on the world, in an effort to destroy the last shred of girls’ innate sexual modesty. Gabriel, the Social Democrat vice chancellor in Mrs. Merkel’s government, visiting Iran with 100 German businessmen, chose to “remind” the White House of “the United States commitment to get an effective dismantling of its sanctions” handicapping Iran. This without a word from the vice chancellor about the Iranian combat role as Russia’s cohort in Syria. New sanctions against Russia for its criminal assault on Aleppo? The German government’s special Russia representative, Gernot Erler, also a Social Democrat, spoke of such sanctions as “acts of desperation” that must be avoided. This kind of ignominy metastasizes when it is not met with real push-back from America. France sees no prospect of any meaningful Obama administration inyour-face beyond some marginal gesticulation. It has expressed resentment about being excluded from the collapsed U.S.-Russia Syrian ceasefire talks. And it has made clear, not incorrectly, that it considers Mr. Obama’s fade on bombing Syria in 2013 to be precipitous to the rise of Islamic State and the involvement of Russia and Iran in Syria. As a response to Russia’s veto last week of France’s Security Council motion to stop Russian aircraft savaging Aleppo—Moscow’s fifth concerning Syria—President François Hollande should call off his invitation to Vladimir Putin for a visit to the French capital on Oct. 19. The cancellation would be a small sign of solidarity among allies without much determination or leadership. Most of all, it would deny Mr. Putin a symbolic victory lap in Paris— and spare France for the sake of the West from having to give a respectable podium to a man who intends to tear the transatlantic relationship even further apart. P2HW287000-0-A01200-1--------AL THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. A12 | Thursday, October 13, 2016 PERSONAL JOURNAL. How Samsung Can Win Back Consumers’ Trust Start with third-party phone testing and stronger oversight We carried the Galaxy Note 7 in our jeans after Samsung promised it wouldn’t explode. We left it charging when we weren’t home. We recommended it to readers and friends. A 13-year-old girl was at school when her just-replaced Note 7 started burning in her hand. Her father, Andrew Zuis, told us that her principal kicked the flaming device into a puddle to extinguish it. That’s hard to forget. On Tuesday, Samsung took the extraordinary step of permanently halting the sale PERSONAL and production of TECHNOLOGY the Note 7—not only the 2.5 million phones it recalled just a month ago, but the ones meant to replace them as well. There’s no word for a “re-recall” because it would imply such a lapse in judgment that it’s just unimaginable. Samsung said it is “taking our customer’s safety as our highest priority.” This much is clear: If you have a Note 7, power it down immediately and get a refund or swap it for a different phone. There’s no reason to believe other Samsung models are dangerous, but we wouldn’t blame anyone for thinking twice before buying Samsung again. This incident has focused attention on the potential for battery fires across the smartphone industry. Know how many U.S. federal laws are in place to require safety certification of the whole phone before it hits the market? Zero. Know who was responsible for the only marking on the Note 7 related to battery safety? Samsung itself was. We think there ought to be From left, the Samsung Galaxy Note 7; replacement Note 7 smartphones belonging to Abby Zuis of Farmington, Minn., and Shawn Minter of Richmond, Va., caught fire. more protections for consumers— and if Samsung wants to win back our trust, it should start by leading the way on smartphone safety standards. The battery problem As smartphones push batteries to the limit, the electronics industry is literally playing with fire. As tech columnists, we’ll accept some of the blame. We frequently insist companies should increase battery life and improve charging times without reducing capabilities. Now we want to talk frankly about the dangers that introduces on devices we carry so close to our bodies. Ordinarily, lithium-ion batteries are relatively safe—they fail at a rate of about one in 10 million, according to the certification firm UL, which works with manufacturers globally to prevent electrical fires and other hazards. But as batteries grow ever more dense, that leaves an ever thinner margin for error in design and manufacturing. It’s not just Samsung that’s at risk of explosion. Last month, an Apple iPhone 7 Plus burned after being damaged in shipping, Apple said. Just ask the Federal Aviation Administration: So far this year, it has recorded 23 smoke, fire or explosion incidents involving batter- ies aboard aircraft. In 2014, there were just nine. This is why many airlines ask you to remove batteries from checked luggage, and flight attendants now offer a Note 7 warning along with instructions on how to use your flotation device. Leading theories about what went wrong with the Note 7 point to a faulty design that crammed a high-capacity battery into too small space. Samsung has also been a part of a few recent trends—such as physically sealed batteries, superfast charging and the adoption of USB-C ports—and that could contribute to the problems. What can you do to reduce your risk? Aim to use chargers that are made by the company that produced your device. At the very least, use a UL-certified charger from a trusted brand. Never use a product if the battery might have been pierced or bent. And, in all seriousness, get a fire extinguisher for your house, and know how to use it. lk t Kolkata T oky Tokyo Taipe p Taipei Hanoi k k Bangkok AERE ong Kon Hong Kong Manila 1 g p Singapore ©2016 Dow Jones & Co. Inc. All rights reserved. 6DJ3313 If you can’t find six more 8 14 9 15 10 16 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 32 33 34 35 37 Stationary 40 46 29 30 42 43 44 47 50 55 51 52 56 58 53 54 57 59 Ice Tomorrow Hi Lo W 11 0 s 17 9 c 18 7 s 34 20 s 15 5 s 34 23 t 15 12 r 31 23 pc 35 16 s 25 17 t 23 10 c 24 18 pc 21 15 r 32 25 pc 22 10 pc 31 23 t 27 19 t 15 11 r 23 12 s 24 20 sh 33 25 pc 7 1 pc 21 13 s 26 24 pc 25 14 s 30 21 s 20 15 pc 13 5 s 14 9 r 18 9 s 16 7 pc Today City Hi Lo W Ottawa 14 0 r Paris 12 8 sh Philadelphia 22 8 c Phoenix 34 19 s Pittsburgh 15 2 sh Port-au-Prince 33 22 t Portland, Ore. 17 13 r Rio de Janeiro 31 23 pc Riyadh 35 15 s Rome 21 16 t Salt Lake City 24 14 pc San Diego 23 17 pc San Francisco 21 17 c San Juan 32 26 pc Santiago 25 10 pc Santo Domingo 31 23 t Sao Paulo 27 20 c Seattle 15 12 r Seoul 21 10 pc Shanghai 22 19 c Singapore 34 26 pc Stockholm 8 0 pc Sydney 18 12 sh Taipei 27 24 c Tehran 27 14 s Tel Aviv 32 23 s Tokyo 18 15 r Toronto 13 3 sh Vancouver 14 10 r Washington, D.C. 24 11 pc Zurich 11 4 pc 26 Glance 3 Grassy expanse 27 His second inauguration was the first to be televised 4 Pitcher’s spot 28 Surface 29 Alpha Canis Majoris 30 Postpone 7 Business letters 48 49 2 Throw in 6 Lusty feeling, with “the” 39 41 25 Brand pitched by Halle Berry and Emma Stone Down 1 “Three Days of the Condor” org. 5 Plying with port 36 38 45 12 19 31 Cold 11 60 35 In bad shape 8 Kia subcompact 36 Telemarketing equipment 9 Cold quarter 38 Warbler’s output 10 Without modification 39 Confine WELCOMING THE FIRST FAMILY | By Dan Fisher 11 Pound pest 41 Crone’s cousin 12 Battery component 45 Silent sort Across 26 Start of Hillary’s 1953 feat? 1 Derivative course 15 Splits 46 Speedy runner 18 In agreement 47 Simple stuff Today Hi Lo W 10 7 sh 28 23 sh 30 21 pc 30 24 pc 30 24 pc 31 21 pc 21 14 c 31 25 t 28 10 s 15 8 pc 31 19 s 24 17 pc 13 9 c 23 15 pc 17 8 sh 31 25 t 16 2 s 25 10 pc 31 24 pc 13 10 r 14 5 s 32 21 pc 17 2 r 3 1 c 32 21 s 23 12 pc 36 21 s 31 20 s 21 9 c 16 7 pc 30 20 pc Tomorrow Hi Lo W 15 9 r 30 25 sh 31 22 t 31 26 s 30 23 pc 31 21 pc 19 13 s 31 24 t 26 12 s 19 15 pc 32 20 pc 24 17 pc 14 9 sh 23 16 pc 19 7 sh 33 25 pc 21 12 s 25 11 t 30 24 pc 14 13 r 19 14 s 31 20 pc 12 2 s 5 1 c 33 21 s 24 15 t 35 20 s 31 22 s 17 7 s 21 16 s 30 20 pc B F J W O A R T O N X N E H V W Y M S I Z C B E A S I F I U V B F R Z B O H I F N N P S A L B A S C J R F Q S T P M Y O E T G S B O F I O U C A R X T C V K F E 31 1959 album “___ With Elvis” 5 Fan sound 9 Float on the breeze 32 Gushing reviews 33 Wasikowska of “Crimson Peak” 13 Conceit 14 Order with scrolls 34 Trajan’s Column on the capitals location 16 Getaway 35 Blunts destination 36 Rue, e.g. 17 Unshakable 37 Words with roll opponents of or rampage King George III? 38 Player’s pace 20 Trident-shaped letters 39 Jeopardy 21 Plagues 43 Madison Bumgarner, e.g. 44 Chinchilla’s home 45 1968 Cliff Robertson movie 48 PC brains 49 Bearer of a “This is the Hindenburg” sticker? 55 Story lines 48 Give up 22 Typeface designer Giambattista 50 Clamor R P O D R J C Q D H S H V L O C U I B V U T M V G I F I G I U Q J F M I F I D I I C O M I I A R K I T C M B F K Q N K F A I 52 Reed of music 53 Prez before Jack 24 West Virginia excavation 56 AC-to-DC converter 57 Joint hit 58 Company dining hall Solve this puzzle online and discuss it at WSJ.com/Puzzles. H 51 “Sesame Street” Muppet in a tutu 23 1967 hit for the Spencer Davis Group 40 Mediterranean 59 Call for property of Spain 22 Yellowstone herd that’s part of a 60 Spotted dick conspiracy? ingredient 24 Bucket of bolts N 42 Drank like a dog 19 Hall’s partner s City Amsterdam Anchorage Athens Atlanta Baghdad Baltimore Bangkok Beijing Berlin Bogota Boise Boston Brussels Buenos Aires Cairo Calgary Caracas Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Detroit Dubai Dublin Edinburgh Frankfurt 7 Flurries b Melbourne Tomorrow Hi Lo W 12 9 pc 11 1 s 24 17 s 28 16 s 36 18 s 17 6 s 32 25 c 23 11 s 11 6 pc 19 10 sh 17 9 sh 14 6 s 15 9 c 23 15 pc 33 22 s 8 -4 i 32 26 pc 23 11 pc 17 9 s 30 21 pc 28 10 pc 16 7 s 35 27 s 12 8 sh 12 6 sh 16 9 pc 6 18 22 Snow Today Hi Lo W 12 7 pc 9 1 pc 24 15 pc 29 16 s 35 19 s 21 8 pc 33 26 t 22 10 s 8 2 pc 20 9 sh 19 13 c 19 8 c 13 7 pc 23 10 t 34 22 s 3 -3 c 32 24 pc 26 13 s 14 4 s 25 19 c 24 10 pc 13 4 pc 34 26 s 12 6 c 12 6 c 13 7 pc 5 20 T-storms Sydney ydneyy 4 13 Rain City Geneva Hanoi Havana Hong Kong Honolulu Houston Istanbul Jakarta Johannesburg Kansas City Las Vegas Lima London Los Angeles Madrid Manila Melbourne Mexico City Miami Milan Minneapolis Monterrey Montreal Moscow Mumbai Nashville New Delhi New Orleans New York City Omaha Orlando 3 Showers JJakarta k t s...sunny; pc... partly cloudy; c...cloudy; sh...showers; t...t’storms; r...rain; sf...snow flurries; sn...snow; i...ice 2 17 Warm la LLumpur p Kuala Global Forecasts Did cutting corners cause the original Note 7 problem? Why did Samsung ship “fixed” phones without knowing for sure they were safe? (The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said it signed off on them.) Samsung hasn’t offered a detailed explanation, or shared its research process. It did host a Sept. 2 event in South Korea with journalists, where DJ Koh, head of Samsung’s smartphone business, answered questions. But it was far less revealing than a similar media event, on Apple’s campus in 2010, where Steve Jobs held a marathon Q&A session with reporters to discuss the iPhone 4’s questionable antenna. Apple regained consumer trust, and the iPhone continued its steady march. The Note 7’s problems are much more serious, yet we know far less. Samsung launched its recall without first enlisting the CPSC and its legal powers, earning it a rebuke from organizations such as Consumer Reports. Another strike: It didn’t offer cash refunds to all customers world-wide. In some cases, it only offered replacement Note 7s. For Samsung’s brand, this bad PR—amplified by flight attendants before every takeoff—has business implications beyond this Note 7. We have strongly recommended its phones for the past two years, and often pointed out how much better its features were than Apple’s. Now, even people who have long loved Samsung are walking away. The WSJ Daily Crossword | Edited by Mike Shenk -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 h gh Shanghai lh h New D Delhi h Karachi Seoul Samsung’s big miss When you look at electronics devices and their packaging and marketing materials, you may see all kinds of safety indicators. The Note 7 was certified by the CTIA, Shown are today’s noon positions of weather systems and precipitation. Temperature bands are highs for the day. iji Beijing America’s wireless consortium. Many U.S. carriers require this for their phones. The CTIA tested the phone and battery to ensure they met international quality standards. But the “CE” on the phone’s back only indicates that Samsung complied with European Economic Area safety, health and environmental standards. This may involve testing, but it’s a declaration of compliance, not third-party certification. The mark is also found on iPhones. The Note’s charging plug was certified by the UL. However, the phone wasn’t. Should the entire smartphone get UL (or other third-party) certification, like laptops? We think so. Sajeev Jesudas, president of UL’s consumer business, says there weren’t international safety standards for complete smartphones until relatively recently. Phones used to be considered less risky because of their low voltage. Self-policing issues Weather Riyadh h FROM LEFT: GEORGE FREY/GETTY IMAGES; ANDREW ZUIS; SHAWN MINTER BY GEOFFREY A. FOWLER AND JOANNA STERN 54 Pay stub listing Previous Puzzle’s Solution J A F A R A M O R E H A G S A T E E P O R K B A R R E L S N A P L E V I I W O N A N M C O A E S A I S S T A K A C Q U I D U P I A P T R I F I E C I C E T S A B I E S I D T T O A A X L E R O U G E T K O S R E F O I N E E A K L G E L L L A A T N E O S C A B I A S I D R S A L U S E S C C H O I A N B R A T E I G H T F E E Y S A A C R WB E E H E N N O D E T N E E D R A S H M E S A S this ad isn’t for you. Introducing WSJ Pro Financial Regulation—a premium, professional membership that puts the insight of The Wall Street Journal and the unrivaled data and resources of Dow Jones at your fingertips. From exclusive news and analysis on financial regulation and its impact, to networking events and email alerts—WSJ Pro Financial Regulation gives you the tools you need to excel. Use our insight to your advantage. Sign up for a complimentary 14-day trial today Go to wsj.com/pro/finreg