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Co-benefits and Low-Carbon Societies in Asia: Is there a Role for GHG Mitigation Technologies? Yohji Uchiyama Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems University of Tsukuba International e a o a Workshop o s op o on a Co Co-benefits be e s Approach, pp oac , Hayama, aya a, Feb.13, eb 3, 2012 0 1 Background 【International trend toward the development of low carbon society】 EU:advocate 60-80 % GHG reduction under the level of 1990 up to 2050 Japan:governmental vision to reduce GHG by 25 % under the level of 1990 up to 2020, supposing participation of major powers in GHG reduction targets 【Difficulty of international agreement】 No agreement of reduction targets because of confliction among countries involved in COP,UNFCCC COP UNFCCC 【Japanese situation】 ●grappling with effective measures toward new vision ●serious consideration of Asian countries achieving remarkable economic growth ●contributing to develop low carbon societies in Asia by transfer of Japanese environmental technologies 【Situation of Newly industrializing economy and developing countries】 ●escaping from poverty ●solving local pollutions of air, water and soil ●shortage of investment funds 【Japanese role】 【J l 】 ●To contribute sustainable development of Asian countries ●To transfer advanced environmental technologies to NIE and DCs by CDM projects 【Necessity of co-benefits study】 ●Cooperative Win-win relationship between developed and developing countries? ●Could mitigating technologies be economically transferred? ●GHG reduction potential of mitigating technologies if co-benefit effect is included? Outline of the Project j 【Pre-research】 “Developing Integrated Evaluation Method for CO2 Mitigating Technologies in Asia Asia” (FY2007~2009) 【Objectives】 Estimating economical co-benefits to reduce both CO2 emission and air pollutions, ll ti and d clarifying l if i technological t h l i l potential t ti l off mitigating iti ti technologies to achieve low carbon societies in Asia 【Methodologies】 g Integrated Asian 3E (energy, environment and economic) Model which combines global optimal energy analysis model (Asian GOAL model) with life cycle analysis, environmental impact assessment and pp for various energy gy chain systems y economic value added approach ● ● ● ● 【Results】 Environmental potentials to reduce air pollutions as well as CO2 emissions in Asian countries up p to 2030 Economical effect of co-benefit obtained by mitigating technologies 【Policy Implication】 Supporting Suppo t g CDM C projects p ojects in Asian s a countries cou t es Providing for research materials to support the global worming policy 3 of IPCC since 2013 Promotion system of the project Project Advisory board Sub-theme Sub-theme 1 2 University of Tsukuba AIST Sub-theme 3 Sub-theme 4 AIST AIST 4 Sub themes of the Project Sub-themes 【【Sub-theme 1】 】 University of Tsukuba LCA of mitigating energy systems for Asian countries b using by i energy-chain h i LCA model d l and d GIS d database t b 【Sub-theme 2】 AIST S i l survey on perception Social ti for f environmental i t l burdens of mitigating technologies 【Sub theme 3】 AIST 【Sub-theme Analysis of external cost including co-benefit effect for mitigating technologies 【Sub-theme 4】AIST Analysis of mitigating technology development in 5 Asian countries including co-benefit effect Structure of the Project (Period: FY2010-2012) Estimating external cost Long-Term Energy Demand in Asian Countries 【 Subtheme 3: AIST 】 Economical Evaluation of Mitigation Technologies Including Co-benefit Effect Post-Kyoto (REDD, SCM) Benefit Cost Environmental Credit Environmental Economic Value 【Subtheme 2: AIST】 Social Survey on Perception of Mitigation Technologies Co-benefit 8 800 7 700 6 600 5 500 4 400 3 300 2 200 1 100 00 Capacity ( GW) 設備量 (億 億kW) Energy and Environmental Policy, Statistical Database in Asian Countries 【 Subtheme 4: AIST 】 Analysis of Mitigation Technologies Development in Asian Countries Considering Co-benefits 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Mi i i TTechnologies Mitigation h l i Air Pollutant Emission CO2 Emission CO2 Credit 【Subtheme1: Univ. Tsukuba】 EEvaluation al ation of Energy Technology Options by Energy Chain LCA and GIS CDM CO2 Mitigation Energy technology options 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2 emission reduction Contribution C t ib ti to t Policy P li Judgment J d t for Technology Transfer and 6 Establishing Low-carbon Society 【Sub-theme1】 LCA of mitigating energy systems for Asian countries by using energy-chain LCA model and GIS database Output for sub-theme 2 and 4 Evaluation of efficiency, environmental burdens and costs of technologies LCA for production and O&M of each process 1200 Overall Efficiency (unit factor) R materials Raw t i l extr. t 既存石炭 1000 C Conversion i T Transportation t ti Utili ation Utilization Energy-chain Accumulative CO2 emissions (unit factor) Raw materials extr. Outputs off CO2 emissions O i i ffor processes (example) 積算CO2排出原単位[g-CO2/kW Wh] (Investigation, Data collection) Conversion Transportation Utilization Total costs (unit factor) Raw materials extr. Conversion Transportation Utilization Evaluation of advanced fossil fuel power and renewable technologies with GIS database 800 USC 600 NGCCローリー NGCCタンカー 400 NGCCパイプライン 200 0 設備 燃料採掘 燃料輸送 運用 廃棄物処理 Local environmental burdens from GIS analysis(CO2,SOx,NOx, etc.) 662 575 311 ● China (advanced thermal power+CCS, Biomass, solar, wind) ● India (advanced thermal power+CCS) ● Kazakhstan (wind, hydropower) 283 230 842 207 757 512 434 602 484 412 517 IGCC 274 NGCC 247 197 IGCC USC 遼寧省 175 USC NGCC ウイグル自治区 IGCC USC 山西省 NGCC 614 524 248 677 165 592 346 269 IGCC 219 140 319 246 USC 重慶市 IGCC 646 NGCC 556 280 197 IGCC 251 172 USC 広東省 NGCC 1000 0 2005 2025 USC 上海市 NGCC Optimization Analysis of Coal Transportation ~Effect of introducing of advanced coal-fired technology~ Amount of coal from each region to Guangdong (a) and from Shanxi to each region (b) by the transportation cost minimization 内モンゴル Inner Mongolia 内モンゴル Inner Mongolia Hebei 河北省 河北省 Hebei Tianjin 天津市 Shanxi 山西省 山西省 Shanxi 陝西省 Shaanxi Shandong 山東省 陝西省 Shaanxi Henan 河南省 江蘇省 Jiangsu Jiangs 河南省 Henan Waterways Waterways 湖南省 Hunan Guizhou 貴州省 30 million ton Jiangxi 江西省 上海市 Shanghai 浙江省 Zhejiang 75 million ton 福建省 Fujian Railways Highways Fujian 福建省 Yunnan 雲南省 広西省 Guangxi Guangdong 広東省 Railways Highways In the USC replacement case, the amount of coal transported from the northern part by the coastal transportation decreases. Guangdong 広東省 (a) to Guangdong (b) from Shanxi Total T t l annuall amountt off CO2 emission i i ffor coall ttransportation t ti ffrom the entire China with and without the USC replacement. Annual CO2 emission (Mt-C CO2) 200 Waterways 180 Railways 160 Highways 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Cost minimized (Conv. Coal) Cost minimized (USC) 41.7% of the CO2 emission is reduced. The reduction ratio of the coastal transportation and the road transportation are large, and both become about half. CO2 emission i i ffrom th the railway il ttransportation t ti is not reduced. 【Sub-theme2】 Study on environmental awareness for mitigation technology Goal: For the total evaluation of benefit caused by mitigation projects such as CDM including, identify the unit economical value of co-benefits. Social survey to estimate WTP (Willingness to pay) for avoiding damages on health by air pollutants • FY2010: Social survey was performed in the central part of Beijing. Urban Area • FY2011: Survey in rural parts in Shanxi is now in going on. Rural Area Survey Method(Beijing) Method: Face to face survey Sampling:Multi-stage systematic sampling Number of respondents: 700 WTP to avoiding damage on health by air pollutants: Ask willingness g to buy y Nebulizer + Medication at current price for the decrease of mortality rate by 0.05%/year for ten years (Subjects were shown the probability of survival rate on after ten years for each age and gender with/without Nebulizer and Medication sets.) A scene of survey Results from the survey in Beijing Data D t is i analyzed l d by b fitting fitti log-logistic models • F x 1 a c z b log x 1 e i i ij Median value of WTP for the decrease of mortality rate by 0.05%/year for ten years: 1,300 RMB F(x):Ratio F( ) R ti off persons who h b buy a nebulizer at price x ci: Coefficient for independent variable zij: Value of the Attribute i for data jj N Now evaluating l ti th the value l off RMD/DALY Effects of Respondents’ Attributes • Household Income: High WTP by High income Household • Academic Background: High WTP by person graduated from university • Exercise: High WTP by persons who has habit of exercise • • • Smoking habit: Not significant Age: Not significant Gender: Not significant Di t ib ti Distribution off H Household h ld Annual A l Income I Examples of Fitting Log-logistic Models AIC a b Income Class Education (University or higher) Smoking Habit non-Exercise Age 30-39 Age 40-49 Age 50-59 Gender(female) The figures in parentheses are the t values. 2,537.5 2,474.6 -5.80 ( -19.7 ) -7.48 ( -17.9 0.95 ( 28.9 ) 1.02 ( 28.6 -0.28 ( -4.9 ) -0.22 ( -3.7 -0.36 ( -2.4 0.11 ( 0.7 1 26 1.26 ( 8.1 81 -0.03 ( -0.2 0.15 ( 0.7 0.23 ( 1.0 0.19 ( 1.1 2,468.0 ) -7.22 ( -20.3 ) 1.01 ( 28.6 ) -0.22 ( -3.7 ) -0.41 ( -2.9 ) ) 1.26 1 26 ( 8.1 81 ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) Technological and economical assessment of mitigation technologies in new offset mechanism 【Sub-theme3】 Goal: Extending environmental impact assessments with co-benefit within whole Asian region ① Role of sub3 is to connect sub1&2 for detailed investigation in present day of China and sub4 for whole Asian region until 2050. ② Applications and modifications of a Japanese LCIA method (named LIME) are investigated for valuing co-benefits in Asian region region. ③ To develop methods for the valuation as well as social survey, to provide quick response to civil services, compensating rigorous statistical study in sub2. On going work (corresponding to the main goals above) [1] modification of LIME: ・revisions of DoseR Response relations l ti based on latest scientific knowledge for energy related i impacts t ・carrying out social survey in several Asian countries to measure M Marginal i l Willi Willingness To Pay (MWTP) [2] application of LIME: to provide methods to other th sub b themes th to t adopt LIME of status quo to future Asian regions Methods and preliminary results Modification of LIME: measure MWTP via internet social surveys Significance of this study ・Very few studies simultaneous social survey covering wide area in foreign countries, which come to face technical barriers. ・Very V few f studies di for f b benefit fi transfer f in i Japan J Carrying out social survey- easier said than done 1. improvement of questionnaires - presenting ti “l “levell off payment” t” - Numbers of choices, attributions, … - Easy to understand … 2. Survey cities - finished; fi i h d Singapore, Si Jakarta J k t - On going; Bangkok, Shanghai, HCMC Preliminary results All the attributions (i.e., payment and the four safeguard subjects) are significance level of 1%, except loss of plants in Singapore (10%). We could successfully demonstrated that MWTP could be obtained b i d ffrom only l some 100 samples l via i iinternet survey. Singapore (S$) Jakarta (1000Rp) 227.5 1504.0 Loss of natural resources 65.1 475.5 Loss of animal species 66.2 531.8 Loss of plants 55.5 809.0 Loss of human health 【 Sub‐theme4】Analysis of mitigation technologies development in Asian countries considering co-benefits Goal: G l T To evaluate l t th the enhancing h i effect ff t off co-benefits b fit in i technology t h l ttransfer f b by a llongterm top-down modeling, based on bottom-up data supplied by sub-theme 1, 2 & 3 Optimal Generation Planning Model Six major power grids in China Time span 20062026 Sub-theme1 Mitigation Technologies g • Advanced Thermal Power + CCS • Renewable Technological & Energy environmental performance Willingness To Pay ・SO SOx ・NO NOx ・PM ・CO2 Evaluation of environmental co benefit co‐benefit Potential enhancement of mitigation technologies development by considering co‐benefits ■Objective j function for baseline[Profit [ of power p suppliers] pp ] OBJBL= t(1+d)‐(t‐2006)g(Ig,t‐Kg,t‐OMg,t‐Fg,t) Ig,t=Sales of electricity,Kg,t= Capital cost,OMg,t= O&M cost,Fg,t= Fuel cost,g=Grid,t=Time,d= Discount rate Sub-theme2 Sub theme2 Sub-theme3 Output of Sub-theme 4 Enhanced development by considering co‐benefits ■Objective function for the potential of current CDM [Profit of power suppliers+Sales of CER] OBJCDM= OBJBL + t(1+d)‐(t‐2006)gCg,t Capacity development y by current CDM Cg,t= Sales of CER(Carbon price× CER) ■ Objective function for the potential of CDM considering Obj ti f ti f th t ti l f CDM id i environmental co‐benefit [Profit of power suppliers+Sales of CER + Co-benefits] OBJCB= OBJCDM + t(1+d)‐(t‐2006)k,tbk,t*Dek,t k= Air pollutants(SOx, Nox, CO2, PM) bk= Value of co‐benefits per ton of pollutant emission Dek= Emission reduction of pollutants below baseline attributed to CDM Today Around 2030 13 Preliminary analysis of enhanced performance of CDM considering co‐benefits, assuming temporal values of co‐benefit of SOx and NOx emission reduction Potential Capacity Development (GW) Emissions of SOx and NOx Y Year 2011 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (million ton per year) 12 10 8 Current CDM CDM with co-benefit Current CDM East Grid USC (GW) CDM with co-benefit Southern Grid IGCC 6 4 2 0 Year 2016 2006 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2016 2021 2026 Annual Nox Emission(Base Line) Annual Nox Emission(current CDM) Annual Nox Emission(CDM with co-benefits) Current CDM CDM with co-benefit East Grid Current CDM CDM with co-benefit Southern Grid Annual SOx Emission(Baseline) Annual SOx Emission(current CDM) Annual SOx Emission(CDM with co-benefits) USC IGCC 14 Overview on co-benefits from key lowcarbon technology viewpoints (1) What is a sustainable technology? gy ・Technologies and systems to contribute the development of a sustainable society What are promising CO2 mitigation options? ・ High g efficient technologies g and energy gy improvement p of utilization systems in both energy demand and supply sides ・ High efficient transportation technologies and clean energy vehicles ・ New N technologies h l i to shift hif ffuels l ffrom coall or oilil to naturall gas or renewable energy ・ CCS system t 15 ・ Nuclear power plant Overview on co-benefits from key lowcarbon technology viewpoints (2) Which electric power technologies would contribute economically to reduce CO2 emission? ・ Advanced coal fired power plants such as USC and IGCC ・ Natural N t l gas combined bi d cycle l ・ Transport shift from truck and ship to railroad ・ Coal Coal-fired fired power plant with CCS system ・ Hydro, wind, biomass and PV What are barriers to install mitigating g g technologies g for CDM projects? ・ ・ ・ ・ High economic growth and rapid technological progress in Asian countries Increase in level of baseline for CDM project Difficulty to understand and estimate external costs of global warming Heavy decline in carbon credit as well as less external costs of carbon emission than those of environmental pollutants 16 Key messages on Role for GHG Mitigation Technologies ● Advanced coal technologies such as USC and IGCC as well as fuel switch from coal to natural gas are promising to mitigate GHG p of infrastructure on fuel transport p ● Improvement and electric grid network is indispensable to promote GHG mitigation technologies ● CO2 reduction costs of renewable energy are higher than those of advanced fossil-fired fossil fired power technologies ● Reversed situation of co-benefits between CDM 17 project and pollution control project Thank you for your kind attention! Acknowledgment This research is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (E-1001) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. 18