2-1 Aggregate Output (Continued)

Transcription

CHAPTER 2:
INDICADORES Y EL
MODELO
MACROEOCNÓMICO
Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, Macroeconomics: A European Perspective, 1st Edition, © Pearson Education Limited 2010
El flujo circular de la Renta
DA
Bienes y Servicios
OA
PRECIOS - GASTOS
MERCADO DE
BIENES Y
SERVICIOS
FAMILIAS
(CONSUMO)
Y
FLUJO REAL
FLUJO MONETARIO
EMPRESAS
(PRODUCCION)
MERCADO DE
FACTORES DE
PRODUCCION
RENTAS - SALARIOS
Factores de Producción
El modelo macroeconómico
DA= C+I+G+ (X-M)
DA
PIB
RN
RPD=RF
Y
OA
PNB
PNN
Macromagnitudes
PNBpm = PIB - rfe + rfn
PNNpm = PNBpm - Amortizaciones
PNNcf = PNNpm - Imp.Indirectos + Subv.
Renta Nacional = PNNcf
RPD = RF = RN - Imp.Directos +
Transferencias - Beneficios + Dividendos
RPD = RF = Consumo + Ahorro
Demanda Agregada
Componentes de la DA
C
C
C
Cprivado
I
I
I
Cpúblico
G
G
G
Iprivada
X
Ipública
X
Demanda
Interna
X
X
-M
-M
Demanda
Final
-M
-M
PIB pm
PIB pm
PIB pm
PIB pm
Output, PIB, Oferta Agregada
2-1 Aggregate Output
Slide
2.11
• National income and product accounts are an
accounting system used to measure aggregate
economic activity.
GDP: Production and Income
• The measure of aggregate output in the national
income accounts is gross domestic product, or GDP.
Slide
2.12
• There are three ways of defining GDP:
1. GDP is the value of the final goods and services
produced in the economy during a given period.
• A final good is a good that is destined for final
consumption.
• An intermediate good is a good used in the
production of another good.
PIB
Renta Nacional Bruta (PPA) 2007
Slide
2.14
(billones de $)
www.jmokean.com
14
PIB
por habitante
y en PPA
PIBph
y pobreza
Slide
2.17
2. GDP is the sum of value added in the economy
during a given period.
• Value added equals the value of a firm’s
production minus the value of the intermediate
goods it uses in production.
Contabilidad Nacional 2009
Slide
2.18
Sectores Productivos
Miles Millones €
% PIB
Agricultura
25.995
2.46
Energía
28.208
2.68
Industria
121.917
11.57
Construcción
105.522
10.1
Servicios
698.097
66.24
Impuestos
74.215
7.04
1053.914
100
P.I.B. pm
Sectores Productivos % PIB 2007
Slide
2.19
Alemania
España
USA
Francia
Reino Unido
Japón
India
Brasil
China
Agricultura
1
3
1
2
1
1
18
5
12
Industria
30
30
23
21
24
30
29
31
48
Servicios
69
67
76
77
75
69
53
64
40
Slide
2.20
3. GDP is the sum of incomes in the economy during
a given period.
Table 2.1
The composition of GDP by type of income, 1970 and 2007
Contabilidad Nacional 2009
Slide
2.21
Agentes Económicos
Asalariados
Millones de €
516.799
% PIB
49.04
Excedentes
460.711
43.71
Impuestos
76.404
7.25
1053.914
100
P.I.B. pm
Slide
2.22
Nominal and Real GDP
• Nominal GDP is the sum of the quantities of final goods
produced multiplied by their current price.
• Nominal GDP increases over time because:
– The production of most goods increases over time.
– The prices of most goods also increase over time.
• Real GDP is constructed as the sum of the quantities
of final goods multiplied by constant (rather than
current) prices.
Slide
2.23
To construct real GDP, multiply the number of cars in
each year by a common price. Suppose we use the price
of the car in 2000 as the common price. This approach
gives us, in effect, real GDP in chained (2000) euros.
Slide
2.24
Nominal and real GDP in the EU15 since 1970
Since 1970, nominal GDP in the EU15 increased by a factor of 14. Real GDP
increased by a factor of 2.5
Figure 2.1
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database
Slide
2.25
The terms nominal GDP and real GDP each have many
synonyms:
• Nominal GDP is also called dollar GDP or GDP in current
euros.
• Real GDP is also called GDP in terms of goods, GDP in
constant euros, GDP adjusted for inflation, or GDP in 2000
euros.
• GDP will refer to real GDP, and Yt will denote real GDP in
year t.
• Nominal GDP and variables measured in current dollars will
be denoted by a euro sign in front of them—for example, $Yt.
for nominal GDP in year t.
Slide
2.26
GDP: Level Versus Growth Rate
Real GDP per capita is the ratio of real GDP to the population
of the country.
GDP growth equals:
(Yt − Yt −1 )
Yt −1
•
Periods of positive GDP growth are called expansions.
•
Periods of negative GDP growth are called recessions.
GDP: Level Versus Growth Rate
Growth rates of GDP in the EU15 and in the USA since 1970
Since 1970, both the EU15 and the US economies have gone through a series
of expansions, interrupted by short recessions
Figure 2.2
Crecimiento Base 100
Slide
2.28
Real GDP, Technological Progress and
the Price of Computers
Slide
2.29
• A tough problem in computing real GDP is how to deal with
changes in quality of existing goods. One of the most difficult
cases is computers.
• The approach used by economists to adjust for improvements
is to look at the market for computers and how it values
computers with different characteristics in a given year.
• This approach, which treats goods as providing a collection of
characteristics— here speed, memory and so on—each with
an implicit price, is called hedonic pricing (hedone means
“pleasure” in Greek).
Slide
2.30
2-2 The Other Major Macroeconomic
Variables
The Unemployment Rate
Because it is a measure of aggregate activity, GDP is
obviously the most important macroeconomic variable. But
two other variables tell us about other important aspects of
how an economy is performing:
• Unemployment
• Inflation
Desempleo
Slide
2.32
Variables (Continued)
• Employment is the number of people who have a job.
• Unemployment is the number of people who do not
have a job but are looking for one.
• The labour force (población activa) is the sum of
employment (ocupados) and unemployment:
L = N + U
Labour force = Employment + Unemployment
Slide
2.33
• The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of people
who are unemployed to the number of people in the labour
force:
U
u=
L
Unemployment rate = Unemployment/Labour force
Estimates based on the LFS show that the average
unemployment rate in the European Union (EU15) in 2008 was
7.1%. In the USA, a survey called the Current Population Survey
(CPS) during 2007, showed that 144.4 million people were
employed and 7.0 million people were unemployed, so the
unemployment rate was 7.0/(144.4 + 7.0) × 100
Tasas de Paro (2011)
Slide
2.34
Estados Unidos
Japón
China
Reino Unido
Canada
Euro Zona
Francia
Alemania
Grecia
Italia
Holanda
España
Irlanda
Portugal
Rusia
Brasil
India
Australia
México
Argentina
Singapoure
4,7
9,1
7,9
7,2
7
5,3
6
2,1
6,5
10
9,9
16,6
8
12,1
21,2
14,4
10,8
5,6
5,3
2,1
0
- TNP/NAIRU
6,1
5
10
15
versión: jmokean (UPO)
20
Slide
2.36
• The Current Population Survey (CPS) is used to
compute the unemployment rate. (En España tenemos
dos estadísticas la EPA y el Paro Registrado).
• Only those looking for work are counted as unemployed.
Those not working and not looking for work are not in the
labour force. (Población No Activa).
• People without jobs who give up looking for work are
known as discouraged workers (desanimados).
labor force
Participation rate = population of working age
Población Potencial: más de 16 años a la edad de jubilación.
Slide
2.37
Unemployment rates in the euro area, UK and USA since 1993
Since 1993, the unemployment rate has fluctuated between 4% and 11%,
going down during expansion and going up during recessions
Figure 2.3
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database, July 2009
PIB y Paro - TNP / NAIRU / Ley de Okun
Histéresis del desempleo / Economía Sumergida
Slide
2.38
PIB
20
21,9
21,5
20,6
20,6
19,5
Paro
17,8
16,3
15
8
24,2
22,9
22,6
22,4
21,5
20,8
18,1
17,3
16,3
16,3
20
18,8
17,2
15,9
Paro
14,5
14,1
13,3
11,44
10
6
11,4
11,3
11,2
10,3
9,2
8,7
8
8,67
4
2
% PIB
25
0
7,03
5
5,25
4,53
3,74
2,93
2,53
2,13
1,79
-2
0
-4
71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1
3
5
7
9 11
versión: jmokean (UPO)
Slide
2.39
Why do Economists Care About Unemployment?
• Economists care about unemployment for two reasons:
• Because of its direct effects on the welfare of the
unemployed.
• Because it provides a signal that the economy may not
be using some of its resources efficiently.
Inflación
Slide
2.41
The Inflation Rate
Inflation is a sustained rise in the general level of
prices—the price level.
The inflation rate is the rate at which the price level
increases.
Symmetrically, deflation is a sustained decline in the
price level. It corresponds to a negative inflation rate.
Índices de Precios y Series de Datos
Slide
2.42
Precios de Consumo
I.P.C
Inflación
Subyacente
IPC Armonizado
(Mensual / Acumulado / Interanual)
Deflactor del PIB
Índices Sectoriales
Deflactando series: Base 100
Estacionalidad, Tendencia, Ciclo y Variaciones
erráticas (residuos) de las series
Inflación mensual
Slide
2.43
IPC: Tasa Interanual
Slide
2.44
IPC: Armonizado
Slide
2.45
Slide
2.47
The Inflation Rate
The GDP Deflator
The GDP deflator in year t, Pt, is defined as the
ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP in year t:
P=
t
Nominal GDP
t
Real GDP
t
$Y
=
t
Y
t
The GDP deflator is what is called an index
number—set equal to 100 in the base year.
Slide
2.48
The Inflation Rate
The GDP Deflator
The rate of change in the GDP deflator
equals the rate of inflation:
( Pt − Pt −1 )
Pt −1
Nominal GDP is equal to the GDP deflator
multiplied by real GDP:
$Yt = Pt Yt
Slide
2.49
The Inflation Rate
The Consumer Price Index
• The GDP deflator measures the average price of output,
while the consumer price index, or CPI, measures the
average price of consumption, or equivalently, the cost of
living.
• The CPI gives the cost in dollars of a specific list of goods
and services over time, which attempts to represent the
consumption basket of a typical urban consumer.
Slide
2.50
The Inflation Rate
The set of goods produced in the economy is not the same as
the set of goods purchased by consumers, for two reasons:
• Some of the goods are sold to firms, to the government or to
foreigners.
• Some of the goods are not produced domestically but are
imported from abroad.
Slide
2.51
The Inflation Rate
Inflation rate, using the HICP and the GDP deflator in the euro area
since 1996
The inflation rates, computed using either the HICP or the GDP deflator,
are largely similar
Figure 2.4
Source: Eurostat, OECD Statistics Database
Slide
2.52
The Inflation Rate
Figure 2-4 yields two conclusions:
• The HICP and the GDP deflator move together most of the
time. In most years, the two inflation rates differ by less than
0.5%.
• There are clear exceptions to the first conclusion. In
1998, 2002 and 2009, the increase in the HICP was slightly
smaller than the increase in the GDP deflator. That means
that the price of goods consumed in the euro area (measured
by the HICP) was lower than the price of goods produced in
the euro area (measured by the GDP deflator).
Slide
2.53
The Inflation Rate
Why do Economists Care About Inflation?
Economists care about inflation for two reasons:
• During periods of inflation, not all prices and wages rise
proportionately, inflation affects income distribution.
• Inflation leads to other distortions.
2-3 The Short Run, the Medium Run
and the Long Run
Slide
2.54
The level of aggregate output in an economy is determined
by:
• Demand in the short run, say, a few years.
• The level of technology, the capital stock and the labour
force in the medium run, say, a decade or so.
• Factors such as education, research, saving and the
quality of government in the long run, say, a half century
or more.
2-4 A Tour of the Book
Slide
2.55
Figure 2.5
The organisation of the book
2-4 A Tour of the Book (Continued)
Slide
2.56
The book is organized into three parts:
• A core which has three parts – the short run, the medium
run and the long run.
• Three extensions which explore the role of
expectations, closed economies, pathologies and
policies.
• Europe in progress: monetary and economic integration.
El modelo macroeconómico
Sectores
Mercados
Funciones de
Comportamiento
Variables a
determinar
Políticas
Económicas
Políticas de
Demanda:
Familias.
Empresas.
Sector Público.
Sector Exterior.
Bienes y
Servicios.
Activos:
C, I, G, X,M, T,S.
Md, Ms.
Dinero.
Bonos.
Trabajo.
Ns, Nd.
Y (PIB)
P (IPC)
U (Paro)
tc
r
Fiscal.
Monetaria.
Comercial.
Políticas de
Oferta:
Rentas.
Estructural.
Key Terms
Slide
2.58
• System of National Accounts,
(SNA)
• Aggregate output
• Gross domestic product,
(GDP)
• Gross national product, (GNP)
• Intermediate good
• Final good
• Value added
• Nominal GDP
• Real GDP
• Base year
• GDP at current prices
• GDP in terms of goods, GDP at
constant prices, GDP adjusted
for inflation
• Real GDP per capita
• GDP growth
• Expansion
• Recession
• Hedonic pricing
• Employment
• Unemployment
Key Terms (Continued)
Slide
2.59
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Labour force
Unemployment rate
Labour force survey (LFS)
Not in the labour force
Discouraged worker
Participation rate
Underground economy
Inflation
Price level
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Inflation rate
Deflation
GDP deflator
Index number
Cost of living
Harmonised Index of
Consumer Prices (HICP)
Consumer price index (CPI)
Short run
Medium run
Long run
El flujo circular de la renta
El flujo circular completo
El flujo circular completo
DA
Y
OA

2-1 Aggregate Output (Continued)

Transcription

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