III VI VIII - La Repubblica.it
Transcription
III VI VIII - La Repubblica.it
Supplemento al numero odierno de la Repubblica Sped. abb. postale art. 1 legge 46/04 del 27/02/2004 — Roma MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 Copyright © 2008 The New York Times JENS MEYER/ASSOCIATED PRESS MARKETS ARE FALLING. BUT WHEN WILL THEY HIT BOTTOM? WORLD TRENDS A sexual awakening by way of the Web. III By ALEX BERENSON LOT OF SMART people have tried to call the bottom on Wall Street this year. So far, they have all been wrong. Since the financial crisis first hit in August 2007, markets — and the financial industry — have gone through a series of swoons, each more dizzying than the last. Recently, the crisis reached a new pitch, as Lehman Brothers, the fourth-largest United States investment bank, filed for bankruptcy; the insurance giant, American International Group, had to submit to a government bailout; and Washington Mutual, the largest savings and loan, A SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Invasive species may not be so evil after all. saw its shares briefly fall below $2. Now even Wall Street’s professional optimists have given up predicting exactly when their industry might stabilize. One senior executive at a top investment bank, speaking anonymously, recently observed that there was no ending in sight. Until now, the cataclysm in the banking and securities industry has damaged but not derailed the rest of the economy, and the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department signaled that they were not ready to bail out Lehman Brothers with taxpayer money. Econo- VI Continued on Page IV ARTS & STYLES Fashion’s eternal quest for what’s next. VIII A New Generation of Rockers Rage Against the Machine Can music change the world? Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones once claimed that “music has probably had more effect on pulling down the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union than all the rockets and all the politicians.” Others might argue that there was a bit more to it than LENS that. But music did have something to do with changing the course of history in the 1960s and early ’70s, in the United States, and at other times in other places. In his historical play “Rock ’n’ Roll,” Tom Stoppard followed the exploits of the Plastic People of the Universe, an anarchic Czech band that flourished during the Prague Spring of 1968, then struggled for two decades against government repression. But for Mr. Stoppard the band, and the freedom and promise of rock music in general, were a cornerstone of the Velvet Revolution that ended Communism. “The play perhaps could be called ‘It’s Not Only Rock ’n’ Roll,’ ” he told The Times’s Jon Pareles last year, “because it’s not.” If young people inflamed by Western music did indeed drive the peaceful upheavals of years past, then what about the repressive regimes of 2008? In “Heavy Metal Islam: Rock, Resistance and the Struggle for the Soul of Islam,” Mark LeVine dreams of a music-fueled domino effect sweeping the Muslim world. Mr. LeVine, a Jewish professor of Middle Eastern history and a guitarist who once played with Mick Jagger, discovered nascent youth music scenes seething with rebellion in North Africa and the Middle East. In his book, reviewed in The Times in July by Howard Hampton, he encounters Cairo metalheads, Palestinian M.C.’s, Iranian Iron Maiden fanatics, Moroccan thrash girls and Dubai Goths. Their music is frequently branded “satanic” and some practitioners are hauled off to prison for “shaking the foundations of Islam.” Yet, in the power chords of the Middle East, Mr. Levine sees “a model for communication and cooperation.” If Arab youth can become rapt followers of an Israeli death-metal band called Orphaned Land, he argues, anything is possible. The Chinese government, for one, fears the power of music to mold the mood of the populace. The state-monopolized radio, Howard French reported in the Times last year, allows nothing but the blandest pop songs, urging listeners to be happy and have fun. Nevertheless, even in a land where the slightest dissent is met with harsh punishment a furtive alternative music movement is emerging. Liu Sijia, the bass player for an underground Shanghai band called Three Yellow Chicken, sings about poverty and civil rights. “The greatest utility of these pop songs is that they aren’t dangerous to the system,” he told Mr. French. “If people could hear underground music, it would make them feel the problems in their lives and want to change things.” Meanwhile, in Havana’s underground, a brash young punk rocker named Gorki Luis Águila Carrasco is howling with rage at Cuban Communism. His expletive-laced lyrics, shouted over the primal roar of his band, Porno para Ricardo, attack the regime of Raúl and Fidel Castro head on. And as Marc Lacey reported in a Times article this month, he has landed in jail under charges of “social dangerousness.” He remains defiant. “I am against everything that limits my personal liberty,” Mr. Gorki said. It remains to be seen if another Velvet Revolution is on the horizon anywhere in the world. But a new generation of rappers and rockers is definitely rising, risking prison to indict the powerful, incite calls for freedom or just have fun. Repubblica NewYork II MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 O P I N I O N & C O M M E N TA RY E DIT OR IAL S OF TH E T IME S Barry Goldwater celebrated a “rugged individualism,” but the reality is that humans are deeply interconnected. A Bad Nuclear Deal President Bush has failed to achieve so many of his foreign policy goals, but recently he proved that he can still get what he really wants. The administration bullied and wheedled international approval of the president’s ill-conceived nuclear deal with India. The decision by the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (which sets rules for nuclear trade) means that for the first time in more than 30 years — since New Delhi used its civilian nuclear program to produce a bomb — the world can sell nuclear fuel and technology to India. Mr. Bush and his aides argued that India is an important democracy and dismissed warnings that breaking the rules would make it even harder to pressure Iran and others to abandon their nuclear ambitions. The White House will now try to wheedle and bully Congress to quickly sign off on the deal. Congress should resist that pressure. The nuclear agreement was a bad idea from the start. Mr. Bush and his team were so eager for a foreign policy success that they neglected to insist on important conditions. They extracted no promise from India to stop producing bomb-making material. No promise not to expand its arsenal. And no promise not to resume nuclear testing. The administration — and India’s high-priced lobbyists — managed to persuade Congress in 2006 to give its preliminary approval. But Congress insisted on a few important conditions, including a halt to all nuclear trade if India tests another weapon. That didn’t stop the White House from insisting on more generous terms from the suppliers’ group. When New Zealand and a group of other sensible countries tried to impose similar restrictions, the administration pulled out all of the diplomatic stops. (Officials proudly reported that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made at least two dozen calls to governments around the world to press for the India waiver.) The suppliers’ group gave its approval after India said it would abide by a voluntary moratorium on testing — but it does not require any member to cut off trade if India breaks that pledge. Congress’s restrictions were a sensible effort to limit the damage from this damaging deal and maintain a few shreds of American credibility when it comes to restraining the spread of nuclear weapons. Lawmakers should hold off considering the deal at least until the new Congress takes office in January. And they must insist that at a minimum, the restrictions already written into American law are strictly adhered to. The next president will have to do a far better job containing the world’s growing nuclear appetites. And for that, he will need all of the moral authority and leverage he can muster. Europe’s Russia Problem President Nicolas Sarkozy of France did not go to Moscow earlier this month with a strong diplomatic hand, and the Russians knew it. President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia agreed to withdraw his troops from most of Georgia by mid-October, but he insists on keeping nearly 8,000 in the two breakaway enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Those, he says, are now independent. Russia cannot be allowed to redraw Georgia’s (or anyone else’s) borders by force. Until the Europeans stand together — and with the United States — against Moscow’s bullying, Russia’s leaders will feel little pressure to change their behavior. The European Union is divided between the desperately frightened and the myopically complacent. In the first group are former Soviet satellites, like Poland and the Baltic states, which have earned their fear, joined by Britain. In the second are Germany, Italy and France (Mr. Sarkozy is the exception), which have put trade and a thirst for Russian energy ahead of everything else. If the second group believes that they are somehow immune from Moscow’s bullying, then they should take another look at their dependence on Russian energy supplies. Georgia’s pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili, eagerly fell into Moscow’s trap when he tried to retake South Ossetia by force and gave Moscow the pretext to invade Georgia. That blunder makes it even less likely that Georgia will regain full control over the Direttore responsabile: Ezio Mauro Vicedirettori: Mauro Bene, Gregorio Botta, Dario Cresto-Dina Massimo Giannini, Angelo Rinaldi Caporedattore centrale: Angelo Aquaro Caporedattore vicario: Fabio Bogo Gruppo Editoriale l’Espresso S.p.A. • Presidente onorario: Carlo Caracciolo Presidente: Carlo De Benedetti Consigliere delegato: Marco Benedetto Divisione la Repubblica via Cristoforo Colombo 90 - 00147 Roma Direttore generale: Carlo Ottino Responsabile trattamento dati (d. lgs. 30/6/2003 n. 196): Ezio Mauro Reg. Trib. di Roma n. 16064 del 13/10/1975 Tipografia: Rotocolor, v. C. Colombo 90 RM Stampa: Rotocolor, v. C. Cavallari 186/192 Roma; Rotonord, v. N. Sauro 15 - Paderno Dugnano MI ; Finegil Editoriale c/o Citem Soc. Coop. arl, v. G.F. Lucchini - Mantova Pubblicità: A. Manzoni & C., via Nervesa 21 - Milano - 02.57494801 • Supplemento a cura di: Alix Van Buren, Francesco Malgaroli two enclaves, but their ultimate status must be decided by international mediation, not Russian occupation. Flush with oil and gas wealth, Moscow has leverage, but not as much as it believes. European energy importers would have more leverage if they started pooling their buying power and stockpiling strategic reserves. Few Russians — and certainly not Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s many business class partners — are eager to go back to the bad-old days of isolation. The Bush administration has correctly recognized that unilateral action is unlikely to make a difference. The message must come from both sides of the Atlantic that there can be no business as usual until Russia returns to playing by the rules. Europe has deferred talks with Russia on a new economic and security pact until it completes its promised troop withdrawal. That is not enough. The European Union should not resume talks until Russia agrees to admit European monitors to both South Ossetia and Abkhazia and to international mediation on the enclaves’ status. More complacency will only feed Russia’s ambitions. That can’t be good for Europe or anyone else. SLIM AARONS/HULTON ARCHIVE/GETTY IMAGES DAVID BROOKS The Social Animal voucher at it.” Schools are bad. Throw a voucher. Health care system’s a mess. Replace it with federally funded individual choice. Economic anxiety? Lower some tax rate. The latest example of the mismatch between ideology and reality is the housing crisis. The party’s individualist model cannot explain the social contagion that caused hundreds of thousands of individuals to make bad decisions in the same direction at the same time. A Republican administration intervened gigantically in the market to handle the Bear Stearns, Freddie and Fannie debacles. But it has no conservative rationale to explain its action, no language about the importance of social equilibrium it might use to justify itself. The irony, of course, is that, in preGoldwater days, conservatives were incredibly sophisticated about the value of networks, institutions and invisible social bonds. You don’t have to go back to Edmund Burke and Adam Smith (though it helps) to find conservatives who understood that people are socially embedded creatures and that government has a role (though not a dominant one) in nurturing the institutions in which they are embedded. That language of community, institutions and social fabric has been lost, and now we hear only distant echoes — when social conservatives talk about family bonds or when John McCain talks at a forum about national service. If Republicans are going to fully modernize, they’re probably going to have to follow the route the British Conservatives have already trod and project a conservatism that emphasizes society as well as individuals, security as well as freedom, a social revival and not just an economic one and the community as opposed to the state. creatures. Psychologists have shown that we are organized by our attachments. Sociologists have shown the power of social networks to affect individual behavior. What emerges is not a picture of selfcreating individuals gloriously free from one another, but of autonomous creatures deeply interconnected with one another. Recent Republican Party doctrine has emphasized the power of the individual, but underestimates the importance of connections, relationships, institutions and social filaments that organize personal choices and make individuals what they are. This may seem like an airy-fairy thing. But it is the main impediment to Republican modernization. Over the past few weeks, Republicans have talked a lot about change, modernization and reform. Despite the talk, many of the old policy pillars are the same. We’re living in an age of fastchanging economic, information and social networks, but Republicans are still impeded by Goldwater’s mental guard-rails. If there’s a thread running through the gravest current concerns, it is that people lack a secure environment in which they can lead their lives. Wild swings in global capital and energy markets buffet family budgets. Nobody is sure the health care system will be there when they need it. National productivity gains don’t seem to alleviate economic anxiety. Inequality strains national cohesion. In many communities, social norms do not encourage academic achievement, decent values or family stability. These problems straining the social fabric aren’t directly addressed by maximizing individual freedom. And yet locked in the old framework, the Republican Party’s knee-jerk response to many problems is: “Throw a Near the start of his book, “The Conscience of a Conservative,” Barry Goldwater wrote: “Every man, for his individual good and for the good of his society, is responsible for his own development. The choices that govern his life are choices that he must make; they cannot be made by any other human being.” The political implications of this are clear, Goldwater continued: “Conservatism’s first concern will always be: Are we maximizing freedom?” Goldwater’s vision was highly individualistic and celebrated a certain sort of person — the stout pioneer crossing the West, the risk-taking entrepreneur with a vision, the stalwart hero fighting the collectivist foe. The problem is, this individualist description of human nature seems to be wrong. Over the past 30 years, there has been a tide of research in many fields, all underlining one old truth — that we are intensely social creatures, deeply interconnected with one another and the idea of the lone individual rationally and willfully steering his own life course is often an illusion. Cognitive scientists have shown that our decision-making is powerfully influenced by social context — by the frames, biases and filters that are shared subconsciously by those around. Neuroscientists have shown that we have permeable minds. When we watch somebody do something, we recreate their mental processes in our own brains as if we were performing the action ourselves, and it is through this process of deep imitation that we learn, empathize and share culture. Geneticists have shown that our behavior is influenced by our ancestors and the exigencies of the past. Behavioral economists have shown the limits of the classical economic model, which assumes that individuals are efficient, rational, utility-maximizing INTELLIGENCE/ORI AND ROM BRAFMAN The Surest Way to Lose Is Not Playing to Win It’s one of the most perplexing phenomena in sports. An underdog team plays aggressively, takes chances, makes bold moves and,gains the lead. But then something changes. Now on top, the team becomes afraid of losing its lead and abandons its aggressive attack, instead playing cautiously and conservatively. Rather than focusing on winning, the team begins to play not to lose. Without realizing it, teams fall victim to a psychological force called loss aversion. Simply put, we feel the pain of a loss more intensely than the pleasure associated with a gain. As a result, coaches and players become paralyzed by the fear of losing the lead. But playing conservatively often spells their downfall: creative teams become fearful and protective, creating an opportunity for the opposing team to catch Ori Brafman and Rom Brafman are co-authors of “Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior.” Ori Brafman, M.B.A., is an international speaker on organizational behavior and management. His brother Rom Brafman, Ph.D., is a psychologist who lectures on interpersonal dynamics. Send comments to brafmans@nytimes.com. up. The very same loss aversion that plagues sports teams also plays out in the game of politics. And in the United States presidential race, Barack Obama is its most recent victim. Mr. Obama was an underdog who made his mark by being bold and creative. He took risks and challenged conventional truisms to capture the Democratic nomination. But once he secured the nomination and was sitting on a comfortable poll lead over his Republican opponent, Mr. Obama started playing not to lose. The young superstar began acting like a worried grandpa. Moving cautiously to avoid stumbling, Mr. Obama chose a safe and predictable vice presidential candidate in Senator Joseph R. Biden. Now, there’s nothing wrong with Mr. Biden. But there’s nothing exciting about him either. Until recently, it was John McCain who was the more traditional, safe candidate. When it came to vice presidential choices, however, Mr. McCain abandoned the safe play and instead gambled with his pick. Sarah Palin is lively, unconventional and intriguing. THE NEW YORK TIMES IS PUBLISHED WEEKLY IN THE FOLLOWING NEWSPAPERS: CLARÍN, ARGENTINA ● DER STANDARD, AUSTRIA ● Pundits can argue (rightly) that she is an unknown, that her record as governor is spotty, and that her claims of achievement are merely hyperbole. Yes, the list of her faults is long. But love her or hate her, Ms. Palin is exciting. She represents the aggressive play — the type aimed at actually winning. Ironically, she embodies the same characteristics that Mr. Obama had during the Democratic primaries. While the election campaign has yet to play out, in this round Mr. McCain was the one who was playing to win. And that’s a potent reminder. Any of us can fall victim to loss aversion, whether it’s I.B.M. protecting its mainframe business and losing out to Microsoft, Yahoo failing to innovate its search technology and giving Google the opportunity to grab market share, or General Motors guarding its lucrative sport utility vehicle business and allowing Toyota to run away with the hybrid car market. The challenge for any successful leader, be it in business, politics, or sports, is to avoid playing not to lose. Although it feels as if we’re playing it safe, when we let loss aversion take over, we’re handing over the victory to an opponent playing to win. LA SEGUNDA, CHILE ● EL ESPECTADOR, COLOMBIA ● LISTIN DIARIO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ● EL UNIVERSO, ECUADOR ● LE MONDE, FRANCE ● SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG, GERMANY ● PRENSA LIBRE, GUATEMALA ● THE ASIAN AGE, INDIA ● LA REPUBBLICA, ITALY ● ASAHI SHIMBUN, JAPAN ● SUNDAY NATION, KENYA ● KOHA DITORE, KOSOVO ● REFORMA GROUP, MEXICO ● VIJESTI, MONTENEGRO ● LA PRENSA, PANAMA ● MANILA BULLETIN, PHILIPPINES ● RZECZPOSPOLITA, POLAND POLITIKA, SERBIA ● EL PAÍS, SPAIN ● THE TIMES, SOUTH AFRICA ● UNITED DAILY NEWS, TAIWAN ● THE OBSERVER, UNITED KINGDOM ● THE KOREA TIMES, UNITED STATES ● EL NACIONAL, VENEZUELA Repubblica NewYork MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 III WORLD TRENDS In Tangle of Lips, a Sex Rebellion in Chile By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO SANTIAGO, Chile — It is just after 5 p.m. in what was once one of Latin America’s most sexually conservative countries, and the youth of Chile are bumping and grinding to a reggaetón beat. At the Bar Urbano disco, boys and girls ages 14 to 18 are stripping off their shirts, revealing bras, tattoos and nipple rings. The place is a tangle of lips and tongues and hands, all groping and exploring. About 800 teenagers sway and bounce to lyrics imploring them to “Poncea! Poncea!”: make out with as many people as they can. And make out they do — with stranger after stranger, vying for the honor of being known as the “ponceo,” the one who pairs up the most. Chile, long considered to have among the most traditional social mores in South America, is crashing headlong into that reputation with its precocious teenagers. Chile’s youths are living in a period of sexual exploration that, academics and government officials say, is like nothing the country has witnessed before. “Chile’s youth are clearly having sex earlier and testing the borderlines with their sexual conduct,” said Dr. Ramiro Molina, director of the University of Chile’s Center for Adolescent Reproductive Medicine and Development. The sexual awakening is happening through a booming industry for 18-andunder parties, an explosion of Internet connectivity and through Web sites like Fotolog, where young people trade suggestive photos of each other and organize weekend parties, some of which have drawn more than 4,500 teenagers. The online networks have emboldened teenagers to express themselves in ways that were never customary in Chile’s conservative society. “We are not the children of the dictatorship; we are the children of democPascale Bonnefoy and Tomás Munita contributed reporting. Parties in Santiago encourage teenagers to ‘‘poncea,’’ or make out with as many people as they can. Above, a couple at a bus stop. PHOTOGRAPHS BY TOMÁS MUNITA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES racy,” said Michele Bravo, 17, at a recent afternoon party. “There is much more of a rebellious spirit among young people today. There is much more freedom to explore everything.” The parents and grandparents of today’s teenagers fought hard to give them such freedoms and to escape the book-burning times of General Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship. But in a country that legalized divorce only in 2004 and still has a strict ban on abortion, the feverish sexual exploration of the younger generation is posing new challenges for parents and educators. Sex education in public schools is badly lagging, and the pregnancy rate among girls under 15 has been on the rise, ac- cording to the Health Ministry. Indeed, adolescent sexuality has changed throughout Latin America, Dr. Ramiro said, and underlying much of the newfound freedom is an issue that societies the world over are grappling with: the explosion of explicit content and social networks on the Internet. Chilean society was shaken last year when a video of a 14-year-old girl eagerly performing oral sex on a teenage boy on a Santiago park bench was discovered on a video-hosting Web site. The episode became a national scandal, stirring finger-pointing at the girl’s school, at the Internet provider — at everyone, it seemed, but the boys who captured the event on a cellphone and distributed the video. Chile’s stable, market-based economy has helped to drive the changes, spurring a boom in consumer spending and credit unprecedented in the country’s history. Chile has become Latin American’s biggest per-capita consumer of digital technology, including cellphones, cable television and Internet broadband accounts, according to a study by the Santiago consulting firm Everis and the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Navarra in Spain. Chileans are plugged into the Internet at higher rates than other South Americans, and the highest use is among children ages 6 to 17. Therein lies a cen- tral factor in the country’s newfound sexual exploration, said Miguel Arias, a psychologist and head of the Santiago consulting firm Divergente. Fotolog, a photo-sharing network created in the United States, took off in the last two years in this country. Today Chile, which has a population of 16 million, has 4.8 million Fotolog accounts, more than any other country, the company says. Again, children ages 12 to 17 hold more than 60 percent of the accounts. Party promoters use Fotolog, as well as MSN Messenger, to organize their weekend gatherings. At the Bar Urbano disco recently, a 17-year-old boy, Claudio, danced with Francisca Durán, also 17, whom he had just met, and soon the two were kissing and rubbing their bodies together. Within minutes they separated and he began playing with the hair of another girl. Soon, they, too, were kissing passionately. Claudio, who declined to give his last name, made out with at least two other girls that night. “This is about being alive,” Cynthia Arellano, 14, said after the Bar Urbano party. “It is all about dancing, laughing, changing the words of the songs to something dirty.” And with a slight giggle, she said, “Well, it’s about making out with other boys.” A Memory May Be a Smoking Gun By ANAND GIRIDHARADAS MUMBAI, India — The new technology is, to its critics, Orwellian. Others view it as a weapon against terrorism that could render waterboarding and other harsh interrogation methods obsolete. Some scientists predict the end of lying as we know it. Now, well before any consensus on the technology’s readiness, India has become the first country to convict someone of a crime relying on evidence from this controversial machine: a brain scanner that is said to reveal signs that a suspect remembers details of the crime in question. Lie detection technologies, generally regarded as promising but unproved, have yet to be widely accepted as evidence — except in India, where in recent years judges have begun to admit brain scans. But it was only in June, in a murder case in Pune, in Maharashtra State, that a judge explicitly cited a scan as proof that the suspect’s brain held “experiential knowledge” about the crime that only the killer could possess, sentencing her to life in prison. Psychologists and neuroscientists in the United States, which has been at the forefront of brain-based lie detection, variously called India’s application of the technology to legal cases “fascinating,” “ridiculous,” “chilling” and “unconscionable.” “I find this both interesting and disturbing,” Henry T. Greely, a bioethicist in California, said of the Indian verdict. “We keep looking for a magic, technological solution to lie detection. Maybe we’ll have it someday, but we need to demand the highest standards of proof before we ruin people’s lives based on its application.” Law enforcement officials from several countries, including Israel and Singapore, have shown interest in the brain-scanning technology and have visited government labs that use it in interrogations, Indian officials said. This latest Indian attempt at getting past criminals’ defenses begins with an electroencephalogram, or EEG, in which electrodes are placed on the head to measure electrical waves. The suspect sits in silence, eyes shut. An investigator reads aloud details of the crime — as prosecutors see it — and the resulting brain images are processed using software built in Bangalore. The resulting brain images are processed to detect whether, when the crime’s details are recited, the brain lights up in specific regions — the areas that, according to the technology’s inventors, show measurable changes when experiences are relived. The Brain Electrical Oscillations Signature test was developed by Champadi Raman Mukundan, a neuroscientist who formerly ran the clinical psychology department of the National Institute of Mental Health and Neuro Sciences in Bangalore. Despite the technology’s promise, many experts in the fields of psychology and neuroscience were troubled that it was used to win a criminal conviction before being validated by any independent study and reported in a respected scientific journal. After passing an 18-page promotional dossier about the BEOS test to a few of his colleagues, Michael S. Gazzaniga, a neuroscientist in California, said: “Well, the experts all agree. This work is shaky at best.’’ But one British forensic psychologist who has met the investigators using the test said he found the presentation highly convincing. “According to the cases that have been presented to me, BEOS has clearly demonstrated its utility in providing admissible evidence that has been used to assist in the conviction of defendants in court,’’ Keith Ashcroft, a frequent expert witness in the British courts, said in an email message. Even as the debate continues, researchers are developing new uses for the technology. No Lie MRI, a company in California, promises on its Web site to use the scans to help with developing interpersonal trust and military intelligence, among other tasks. In August, a committee of the National Research Council in Washington predicted that, with greater research, brain scans could eventually aid “the acquisition of intelligence from captured unlawful combatants’’ and “the screening of terrorism suspects at checkpoints.” “As we enter more fully into the era of mapping and understanding the brain, society will face an increasing number of important ethical, legal and social issues raised by these new technologies,” Mr. Greely and his colleague Judy Illes wrote last year in the American Journal of Law & Medicine. If brain scans are widely adopted, they said, “the legal issues alone are enormous.” “At the same time,” they continued, “the potential benefits to society of such a technology, if used well, could be at least equally large.” An Indian judge says a brain scan proves a criminal’s guilt. Repubblica NewYork IV MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 WORLD TRENDS Wall Street Looks Ahead As a ‘Golden Era’ Ends Investors Ask When Will The Market Hit Bottom? By LOUISE STORY and EDMUND L. ANDREWS From Page I mists generally predict that the United States will grow slowly over the next few months but avoid a deep recession, especially if oil prices fall further, easing pressure on consumers, and exports remain strong. But as the Wall Street crisis moves into its second year, the risks to the overall economy are increasing. Until the worst turmoil on Wall Street ends, the economy will struggle, said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University, Channel Islands, who studies financial markets. “Until and unless we have financial markets stabilize, I don’t think we will see a meaningful recovery in housing, and therefore in the economy,” Dr. Sohn said. Steven Wieting, the United States economist for Citigroup, said: “We’re describing the U.S. economy as recessionary.” Unfortunately, Mr. Wieting — and other economists — say that the Federal Reserve and the government have few good options left to ease the pressure on financial firms or the economy. The Fed has taken several measures to buoy the financial industry, such as allowing more banks access to lowinterest, short-term loans. Yet Wall Street continues to struggle through the aftereffects of the biggest speculative bubble in history. Financial services companies have cut more than 100,000 jobs this year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an executive placement firm, and deeper layoffs may come this fall, including thousands of workers from Lehman and possibly Merrill Lynch, which was quickly sold to Bank of America the same weekend Lehman filed for bankruptcy. Yet the picture may not be entirely bleak. When the chaos finally ends, Wall Street will almost certainly be smaller and more risk-averse. That change could eventually put the economy on firmer footing. This year’s crisis appears to mark the end of a bubble in the financial markets that has lasted nearly two decades. The speculation began in technology stocks in the 1990s and turned to real estate, commodities and private equity buyouts this decade. Along the way it powered the New York City economy and helped drive income inequality nationally. While the stock market has not been as frenzied this decade as it was at the end of the 1990s, rampant speculation took over many other financial markets, Mr. Wieting said. “In the last couple of years, financial activity be- MARK LENNIHAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS After Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, thousands faced layoffs. The headquarters in New York early that day. came less related than we’ve seen before to real economic developments,” he said. Now Wall Street is reeling. Because banks have limited capital to absorb losses, investors worry that those losses will overwhelm them. The problem has been worsened by the financial instruments that banks and hedge funds and insurance companies have created to swap loans and risk with each other. In theory, those products can help investors and companies diversify risk, but they are nearly impossible to value. “Investors just don’t know what these assets are worth,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “There’s no transparency. It’s totally up to management to decide what these assets are worth and tell their accountants.” For example, Lehman said recently that it had $20 billion in tangible equity. But shareholders valued Lehman at only $2 billion as of September 12, proof that they did not have confidence in the way Lehman had calculated its assets. Now investors are demanding that banks like Washington Mutual raise capital or sell their assets to raise cash and prove that they are solvent. But when banks are under pressure, they cannot easily find new investors or purchasers for their assets. It is as if a family were told to sell their home overnight, for cash, or lose it. They would surely receive a far lower price than the property would generate in a more orderly sale. So, one by one, the banks that took on the most risk are facing the real possibility of going under. Those with stronger balance sheets, such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, are suffering much less. For Wall Street, the lesson has been sobering — and is unlikely to be forgotten for several years, said Dr. Sohn, the California State economist. “The restraint in the credit markets will last quite some time,” Dr. Sohn said. In the mortgage business, which saw the worst excesses, loan practices may remain stricter for at least a decade, he said, with both positive and negative results. The speculation that has produced wide swings in commodities prices and vacant subdivisions across California and Florida may become less prominent. But people who want to buy homes may continue to struggle to get mortgages, even if they have excellent credit. Companies that need loans to expand, or just to survive rough economic patches, will also have a harder time finding financing. “We went overboard,” Dr. Sohn said. “As a result, the financial market is imposing some discipline on our behavior, and it’s painful. But that’s how the system works.” The old Wall Street is giving way to a new one. As the tectonic shifts within the American financial industry are shaking the world’s markets, many experts are predicting a new period of painful change for Wall Street. The predictions were sobering. Investment banks will be smaller. Their profits will be leaner. Jobs in finance will be scarcer. And the outsize role of Wall Street in the American economy will shrink. It is still unclear what lies ahead for Wall Street now that only two major American investment banks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, remain independent. While Wall Street has gone through tough times before only to emerge bigger and stronger, some question whether the industry can rebound quickly after using high levels of leverage, or borrowed money, to binge on risky investments. Those investments have proved to be disastrous. Worldwide, financial companies have reported more than $500 billion in charges and losses stemming from the credit crisis — a figure some experts say could eventually exceed $1 trillion. “We’ve gone from a golden era of banking and financial services,” Kenneth D. Lewis, the chief executive of Bank of America, said in a press briefing on September 15, as the bank he heads prepared to buy Merrill Lynch. “It’s going to be tougher,” Mr. Lewis said. “There are going to be fewer companies, and we are going to have to be better at what we do.” As investors tried to comprehend the abrupt downfall of two of Wall Street’s mightiest firms — Lehman Brothers, which spiraled into bankruptcy, and Merrill Lynch, which was bought by Bank of America — even optimists said the immediate future would be difficult. United States Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and the United States Federal Reserve are paving the way for the few strong survivors to lead an industry turnaround, while letting the weaker ones fail or be subsumed by larger rivals. Missteps in the mortgage market cost Merrill Lynch more than $45 billion over the last year. Its sale could be a step toward the broader consolidation within the industry. “We are all in this business conditioned to cycles in crises and we’re also conditioned to markets snapping back relatively quickly because the crisis can be identified and measured,” said Donald B. Marron, chief executive of the private equity firm Lightyear Capital, which is focused on financial services, and former chief of PaineWebber Group. “What’s different now is you can’t do either.” Executives like John A. Thain, the chief executive of Merrill and a former Goldman executive, say investment banks will need large bases of deposits to shore up their capital for times of trouble. “As we go forward, size is going to matter,” Mr. Thain said. Mr. Paulson has said to executives that greater consolidation on Wall Street could increase risk in the financial system, because the risks will be concentrated in a smaller number of firms. But Treasury officials view risk as the lesser of two evils, if the alternative is to prop up sick firms and increase instability. What seems to be clear to most everyone on Wall Street is that the era of large trading profits and deals fed by extreme bank borrowing is over, at least for now. That will clamp down profits across the industry for some time. Wall Street has always used other people’s money to amplify its profit, but in recent years, the use of debt ballooned. The finance industry’s credit market instruments increased more than one and a half times in the last decade, to $15 trillion last year, according to Moody’sEconomy.com, and climbed at a pace that was two times faster than the growth of the broad economy. At its peak last year, investment banks had borrowed $32 on average for every dollar of their assets, according to research from Ladenburg Thalmann, a financial services company. The bor- With fewer firms, the risks in the financial system are concentrated. rowing helped the industry turn record profits, hire more people and pay out immense bonuses. And it pumped up financial stocks, making them the largest segment of the Standard & Poor’s 500-share index from 2001 until this spring. Wall Street reinvents itself all the time. Many executives say it will do so again, even as historical firms and others face questions about their futures. As Wall Street firms of all size reduce their borrowing to reduce risk, it comes in some cases at the cost of higher profits. The shift has forced senior executives to rethink business models, and more firms are focusing on their tried and true asset management units. Already, Wall Street firms are reducing their debt levels, and regulators are expected to create new rules about leverage (the degree to which an investor is using borrowed money), liquidity and capital levels. The rules, if strict, could force Goldman and Morgan Stanley to merge with a bank that has customer deposits, a steady source of capital, and thus is buffered from collapse. The financial sector seems poised for lower paydays across the board. “They can’t borrow, so they’re going to have cut down,” said Peter J. Solomon, chairman of an independent investment bank that bears his name. “As they cut down, they will have to fire people.” Hedge Funds Losing Glamour. Also Money. By LOUISE STORY Making millions — or even a few billion — by managing a hedge fund has been a running dream on Wall Street in recent years. But suddenly even the masters of this $2 trillion universe are falling on hard times, at least by their own gilded standards. Hedge funds, those secretive investment vehicles for the rich and, increasingly, the not-so-rich, are supposed to make money whether markets go up or down. But many of them are being swept up in the turmoil in the financial world. The funds’ returns are sinking, and so are those big paydays for their managers, whose riches have helped redefine modern notions of wealth and helped drive up the price of everything from Picassos to Manhattan penthouses. Several big funds have faltered in recent weeks, some of them spectacularly so. While many funds are still flying high, the average hedge fund has lost more than 4 percent this year, according to Hedge Fund Research, putting the industry on course for its worst year on record. The dimming fortunes of the industry have implications far beyond the rarefied world of hedge funds. Over the last decade, the size of this industry grew fivefold, as public pension funds, corporate pension funds and university endowments poured billions of dollars into these vehicles, in hopes of marketbeating returns. A prolonged downturn might prompt some investors to rethink these investments or demand lower fees from managers, who typically collect annual management fees of 2 percent and then take a 20 percent cut of any profits. Trouble at hedge funds also might draw government scrutiny, given the amount of pension money sitting within these unregulated firms. “Everyone is looking for a panacea, everyone is looking for a quick way to make money fast, and everyone is pinning their dreams on the backs of these hedge funds,” said Dan McAllister, the treasurer and tax collector of San Diego County, whose pension fund lost money when a hedge fund called Amaranth collapsed two years ago. “But maybe it’s time to be a little cautious, and it’s time to look at things with a more discreet eye.” While big hedge funds have gone under in the past, and many small ones fail every year, the current problems are more far-reaching than in the past. Funds are warning investors that the markets have become increasingly difficult to predict. They are having a tougher time making money now that Wall Street banks have reduced the amount of money they are willing to lend to the funds in order to safeguard themselves. It is now 5 to 10 percent more expensive for hedge funds to borrow from banks than it was a year ago, and banks are increasingly hesitant to lend to hedge funds for long periods. In recent weeks, several funds have closed, most notably a fund run by Ospraie Management. Rumors about troubled hedge funds like Atticus Capital have unsettled the broader markets. Already, hedge funds are planning for harder times ahead. Fund managers are planning to slash employee bonuses in December, according to study to be released this week by Glocap, a hedge fund recruiting firm. “This is probably one of the worst Jonathan Weiss quit the Glenview Capital fund because he believed the industry is going in the wrong direction. NICOLE BENGIVENO/THE NEW YORK TIMES years for performance of hedge funds — it’s been a bloodbath,” said Adam Zoia, chief executive of Glocap, which began tracking hedge fund compensation in 2001 and has never recorded a down year until now. Some of the young people who flocked to the hedge fund industry have begun to doubt its future. Jonathan Weiss quit his job at Glen- view Capital, a large hedge fund in New York, in January, despite earning a large bonus last year. He said he did not like the way the industry was moving away from its entrepreneurial roots. His friends called him crazy. “They called me up wondering why was I walking away from this supposed golden ticket,” Mr. Weiss, 28, said. “It’s because I knew it wasn’t a golden ticket.” Repubblica NewYork MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 V MONEY & BUSINESS A Harsh Disparity in Pay for Working Women in Germany By SARAH PLASS FRANKFURT — Maria Schaad, an ambitious 41-year-old businesswoman, considers herself lucky. After the birth of each of her sons, now 7 and 3, her employer, a major pharmaceutical company, allowed her to work flexible, reduced hours — a perk that is far from a given in Germany. But her luck extended only so far: though Ms. Schaad had once set her sights on a position in management, her career stagnated after she started a family, she said, even though she had earned an M.B.A. after she became a mother. “At some point, women have to make a decision,” she said matter-of-factly. “Having children means you have to make compromises” at work. Millions of working mothers — and sometimes fathers — have to make often difficult trade-offs when it comes to work and family, but labor experts say the calculus is especially harsh in Germany, a country that despite having a woman Wage gap narrows across E.U., but is stagnant in Germany. chancellor and sitting at the center of supposedly liberal Europe, has one of the widest gender wage gaps on the Continent. Only Cyprus, Estonia and Slovakia have equal or greater gaps, according to a study by the European statistics service, Eurostat. Across the Continent, women on average made 15.9 percent less than men in 2007. That gap has narrowed each year since 2001, when women made 20.4 percent less than men, according to a recent report released by the European Union foundation that has studied the trend for years. The wage difference in Germany is just one of the disparities between working men and women, especially mothers, that government and union leaders say are creating a drag on female participation in the work force and, consequently, on economic growth, at a time when Germany may be teetering on the edge of recession. And they point to a range of societal and governmental barriers that are hindering change. Since 2000, German working women on average have gone from earnROLF OESER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES ing 26 percent less than Maria Schaad, at her home office in Germany, says: ‘‘Having men to making 24 percent less than men in 2006, the children means you have to make compromises’’ at work. last year for which statistics are available, according to data provided by the government statistics ern Germany, largely because the average hourly wage for men in this part of the country is almost bureau, Destatis. Ingrid Sehrbrock, deputy chairwoman of the 50 percent more than for men in the former East German Federation of Trade Unions, calls Ger- Germany. Some human resources experts even point to man pay inequity a “scandal.” Europe’s commissioner for employment and social affairs, Vladimir less aggressive salary negotiations by women. Spidla, recently called on German employers “to (Coaching programs aimed at women have mushreally apply the principle of equal pay for equal roomed over the last decade.) But there are also societal and policy pressures. work.” New data suggests that Germany is going in the For example, mothers who work are sometimes opposite direction. While the wage gap between derided as Rabenmutter, or “raven mothers.” women and men is narrowing across the Euro- The phrase — based on the erroneous belief that pean Union and in the United States, it is stagnant ravens fly away, leaving their nests behind — refers to women who pursue careers instead of being in Germany. There are many reasons that Germany has homemakers. It is more common in the west than continually been in the European cellar. Outright in the east of the country. Silke Strauss, 42, said she could not have atgender discrimination is one, researchers say. Maternity leave is another: men get promoted while tained her present position had she decided to have their female colleagues take time off to have chil- children. She was just named managing partner of a management consulting firm, and is the only dren. “The dilemma is that while 50 percent of the ju- female partner among eight men. “It would simnior employees are female, they pretty much dis- ply not work with children, not with the amount of appear on their way to middle management,” said flexibility that is expected,” she said. Ms. Schaad said young women who want both a Heiner Thorborg, a human resources consultant in career and children had better hurry. In business, Frankfurt and a vocal critic of gender inequality. The income gap is smaller for younger women she said, “Realistically, a woman who has not who have not had children. It is greatest in west- made it by 40 has no chance to make it at all.” ROBERT STOLARIK FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES Money often creates problems for many married couples. They should keep a budget and make big financial decisions together, experts say. Financial Compatibility Is One Key to Marital Bliss By TARA SIEGEL BERNARD Marrying a person who shares your attitudes about money might just be the smartest financial decision you will ever make. In fact, when it comes to finances, your marriage is likely to be your most valuable asset — or your largest liability. While most of us marry for romantic reasons, marriage at its core is a financial union. The economies achieved by pairing up are fairly obvious. However, the costs of divorce can be financially devastating, especially when children are involved. And, not surprisingly, money often creates problems for many couples. “Most people think people break up over sex issues and children issues — and those are issues — but money is a huge factor in breaking up marriages,’’ said Susan Reach Winters, a divorce lawyer in Short Hills, New Jersey. These guidelines are compiled from the successfully married and from experts on psychology, divorce and finance: TALK AND SHARE GOALS Before marrying, couples should have a talk about their financial health and goals. They should ask each other tough questions. “In my ideal plan for couples, they would have a meeting every week on their finances,’’ said Karen Altfest, a financial planner who runs the New York firm L. J. Altfest & Company, with her husband. “That way, they are in sync with each other’s goals.’’ Eric Gundlach, 53, of Owings Mills, Maryland, who has been married for 29 years, said he and his wife, Ann-Michele, “made our expectations explicit.’’ These included sending their son to private school and having big experiences, like traveling, in lieu of purchasing things. RUN A HOME LIKE A BUSINESS Make a budget and keep track of earnings, expenses and debts. And structure your business as a partnership; when it comes to making big financial decisions and setting goals, do it together. “When they are making the decisions together, they really have ownership of those decisions and any results of those decisions,’’ said Mary Ann Sisco, national wealth adviser at JPMorgan’s private wealth management division. “Even if you have negative results, you tend to weather the storm better.’’ Share responsibilities, too. Though one partner tends to control the finances, advisers recommend rotating tasks. BE SUPPORTIVE OF CAREERS Having a supportive partner helps you professionally, which should trickle down to your mutual bottom line. “Marrying the right person helps you succeed in your career through encouragement and support, the only kind of support that comes through a supportive, intimate relationship,’’ said Mr. Gundlach. ENJOY, BUT WITHIN REASON Create a cash cushion, and live a lifestyle you can sustain. Many people who were earning a lot of money at hedge funds or financial firms that went bust are learning these lessons now. MAINTAIN SOME INDEPENDENCE Pooling resources is important, but so is maintaining a degree of financial independence. Carve out some money for both partners to spend on things that make them happy. And when cutting back, it’s essential that each person make sacrifices. INVEST IN YOUR MARRIAGE Spend it — time and money — together. Go on dates. “What that does is enliven the marital foundation,’’ said Gary S. Shunk, a Chicago therapist who specializes in wealth issues. “It’s a kind of investment into the heart and soul of the relationship.’’ Repubblica NewYork VI MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY For the Brain, Recalling Is Like Reliving By BENEDICT CAREY Scientists have for the first time recorded individual brain cells in the act of summoning a spontaneous memory, revealing not only where a remembered experience is registered but also, in part, how the brain is able to recreate it. The recordings, taken from the brains of epilepsy patients being prepared for surgery, demonstrate that these spontaneous memories reside in some of the same neurons that fired most furiously when the recalled event was experienced. Researchers had long theorized as much, but until now had only indirect evidence. Experts said the study was all but conclusive: For the brain, remembering is a lot like doing (at least in the short term, as the research says nothing about more distant memories). The experiment, which was reported September 5 in the journal Science, is likely to open a new avenue in the investigation of Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia, some experts said. It could also help explain JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES Charting individual cells solves a part of the memory puzzle. how some memories seemingly come out of nowhere. The researchers were even able to identify specific memories in subjects a second or two before the people themselves reported experiencing them. “I cannot think of any recent study that’s comparable,” said Michael J. Kahana, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, who was not involved in the research. “It’s a really central piece of the memory puzzle and an important step in helping us fill in the detail of what exactly is happening when the brain performs this mental time travel.” The new study moved beyond most previous memory research in that it focused not on recognition or recollection of specific symbols but on free recall — whatever came into people’s heads when, in this case, they were asked to remember short film clips they had just seen. This ability to richly reconstitute past experience often deteriorates quickly in people with Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia, and it is fundamental to so-called episodic memory, the catalog of vignettes that together form our remembered past. In the study, a team of American and Israeli researchers threaded tiny electrodes into the brains of 13 people with severe epilepsy. The implants are standard procedure in such cases, allowing doctors to pinpoint the location of the Scientists are learning more about how we create a remembered past. mini-storms of brain activity that cause epileptic seizures. The patients watched a series of 5- to 10-second film clips, some from popular television shows and others depicting animals or landmarks like the Eiffel Tower. The researchers recorded the firing activity of about 100 neurons per person; the recorded neurons were concentrated in and around the hippocampus, a sliver of tissue deep in the brain known to be critical to forming memories. In each person, the researchers identified single cells that became highly active during some videos and quiet during others. More than half the recorded cells hummed with activity in response to at least one film clip; many of them also responded weakly to others. After briefly distracting the patients, the researchers then asked them to think about the clips for a minute and to report “what comes to mind.” The patients remembered almost all of the clips. And when they recalled a specific one — say, a clip of Homer Simpson — the same cells that had been active during the Homer clip reignited. In fact, the cells became active a second or two before people were conscious of the memory, which signaled to researchers the memory to come. “It’s astounding to see this in a single trial; the phenomenon is strong, and we were listening in the right place,” said the senior author, Dr. Itzhak Fried, a professor of neurosurgery at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of Tel Aviv. Dr. Fried said that the single neurons recorded firing most furiously during the film clips were not acting on their own; they were, like all such cells, part of a circuit responding to the videos, including thousands, perhaps millions, of other cells. In studies of rodents, including a paper that appeared the same day in the journal Science, neuroscientists have %3').-1+ ' #*6321 &,-/* 5,* "3'-1 $*0*0(*34 Scientists measuring brain activity in epilepsy patients have recorded individual brain cells in the act of recalling a spontaneous memory. Watching film clips Below, a single neuron was monitored while a patient watched a series of 48 five-second film clips. The neuron was quiet during almost all of the clips but responded strongly to a clip of ‘‘The Simpsons.’’ 5 SECONDS Baseline firing rate Hollywood clip 5 SECONDS Response firing rate Statue of Liberty clip Remembering the clips The patient was then asked to think about the clips and say what came to mind. The neuron began firing rapidly a second or two before the patient named “The Simpsons.” 5 SECONDS Hertz 15 10 5 ‘‘The Simpsons’’ clip 5 SECONDS Hertz 15 10 5 SPEAKING WORDS SPOKEN ‘‘The Hollywood sign’’ Sources: Itzhak Fried; Science ‘‘ahmm ...’’ ‘‘The Simpsons’’ THE NEW YORK TIMES shown that special cells in the hippocampus are sensitive to location, activating when the animal passes a certain spot in a maze. The firing pattern of these cells forms the animals’ spatial memory and can predict which way the animal will turn, even if it makes a wrong move. Some scientists argue that as humans evolved, these same cells adapted to register a longer list of elements — including possibly sounds, smells, time of day and chronology — when an experience occurred in relation to others. Single-cell recordings cannot capture the entire array of brain circuitry involved in memory, which may be widely distributed beyond the hippocampus area, experts said. And as time passes, memories are consolidated, submerged, perhaps retooled and often entirely reshaped when retrieved later. Though it did not address this longerterm process, the new study suggests that at least some of the neurons that fire when a distant memory comes to mind are those that were most active back when it happened, however long ago that was. “The exciting thing about this,” said Dr. Kahana, the University of Pennsylvania professor, “is that it gives us direct biological evidence of what before was almost entirely theoretical.” Exotic Species May Aid, Not Smother, Diversity By CARL ZIMMER REGISTER YOUR PLACE TODAY AT THE WORLD’S LEADING LUXURY BUSINESS CONFERENCE. JOIN SUZY MENKES, THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE’S RENOWNED FASHION EDITOR, AND AN ILLUSTRIOUS LINE-UP OF LUXURY INDUSTRY LEADERS AND DECISION-MAKERS FOR TWO DAYS OF IDEAS, INSIGHTS AND INSPIRATION AT THE IMPERIAL, NEW DELHI ON DECEMBER 3RD & 4TH. CONFIRMED SPEAKERS INCLUDE: H.E. 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When Europeans began arriving in New Zealand, they brought with them alien plants — crops, garden plants and stowaway weeds. Today, 22,000 non-native plants grow in New Zealand. Most of them can survive only with the loving care of gardeners and farmers. But 2,069 have become naturalized: they have spread out across the islands on their own. There are more naturalized invasive plant species in New Zealand than native species. It sounds like the makings of an ecological disaster: an epidemic of invasive species that wipes out the delicate native species in its path. But in a paper published in August in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Dov Sax, an ecologist at Brown University in Rhode Island, and Steven D. Gaines, a marine biologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, point out that the invasion has not led to a mass extinction of native plants. The number of documented extinctions of native New Zealand plant species is a grand total of three. Exotic species receive lots of attention and create lots of worry. Some scientists consider biological invasions among the top two or three forces driving species into extinction. But Dr. Sax, Dr. Gaines and several other researchers argue that attitudes about exotic species are too simplistic. While some invasions are indeed devastating, they often do not set off extinctions. They can even spur the evolution of new diversity. “I hate the ‘exotics are evil’ bit, because it’s so unscientific,” Dr. Sax said. Dr. Sax and his colleagues do not agree with many other experts on invasive species. Their critics argue that the speed with which species are being moved around the planet, combined with other kinds of stress on the environment, is having a major impact. There is little doubt that some invasive species have driven native species extinct. But Dr. Sax argues that they are far more likely to be predators than competitors. In their new paper, Dr. Sax and Dr. Gaines analyze all of the documented extinctions of vertebrates that have been linked to invasive species. Four-fifths of those extinctions were because of introduced predators like foxes, cats and rats. The Nile perch was introduced into Lake Victoria in 1954 for food. It then began wiping out native fish JOHN KLEBER Most traditional views of ecology see alien plants and animals as invaders that are usually harmful to native species. But the “exotics are evil” view may be wrong. by eating them. “If you can eat something, you can eat it everywhere it lives,” Dr. Sax said. But Dr. Sax and Dr. Gaines argue that competition from exotic species shows little sign of causing extinctions. This finding is at odds with traditional concepts of ecology, Dr. Sax said. Ecosystems have often been seen as having a certain number of niches that species can occupy. Once an ecosystem’s niches are full, new species can take them over only if old species become extinct. But as real ecosystems take on exotic species, they do not show any sign of being saturated, Dr. Sax said. In their paper, Dr. Sax and Dr. Gaines analyze the rise of exotic species on six islands and island chains. Invasive plants have become naturalized at a steady pace over the last two centuries, with no sign of slowing down. In fact, the total diversity of these islands has doubled. Fish also show this pattern, said James Brown of the University of New Mexico. “The overall pattern almost always is that there’s some net increase in diversity,” he said. But critics, including Anthony Ricciardi of McGill University in Montreal, argue that today’s biological invasions are fundamentally different from those of the past. It is estimated that humans are now moving 7,000 species a day. In the process, species are being thrown together in combinations that have never been seen before. “If you pour on more species, you don’t just increase the probability that one is going to arrive that’s going to have a high impact,” Dr. Ricciardi said. “You also get the possibility of some species that triggers a change in the rules of existence.” Repubblica NewYork MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 VII E D U C AT I O N In Clash of Faith and Science, a Delicate Task By AMY HARMON ORANGE PARK, Florida — David Campbell wrote “Evolution” and displayed it on a screen. He scanned the faces of the sophomores in his Biology I class. Many of them, he knew from years of teaching high school in this Jacksonville suburb, had been raised to take the biblical creation story as fact. His gaze rested for a moment on Bryce Haas, a football player who attended the 6 a.m. prayer meetings of a Christian athletes group in the school gymnasium. “If I do this wrong,” Mr. Campbell remembers thinking on that humid spring morning, “I’ll lose him.” In February, the Florida Department of Education modified its standards to explicitly require, for the first time, the state’s public schools to teach evolution, calling it “the organizing principle of life science.” Spurred in part by legal rulings against school districts seeking to favor religious versions of natural history, over a dozen other states have also given more emphasis in recent years to what has long been the scientific consensus: that all of the diverse life forms on Earth descended from a common ancestor, through a process of mutation and natural selection, over billions of years. But in the United States, where evangelical Protestantism and other religious traditions stress a literal reading of the biblical description of God’s individually creating each species, students often arrive at school fearing that evolution, and perhaps science itself, is hostile to their faith. Some come armed with “Ten questions to ask your biology teacher about evolution,” a document circulated on the Internet that highlights supposed weaknesses in evolutionary theory. Others write their opposition on homework assignments. Many just ignore it. With a mandate to teach evolution but little guidance as to how, science teachers are contriving their own ways to turn a culture war into a lesson plan. How they fare may bear on whether a new generation of Americans embraces scientific evidence alongside religious belief. “If you see something you don’t understand, you have to ask ‘why?’ or ‘how?’ ” Mr. Campbell often admonished his students at Ridgeview High School. Yet their abiding mistrust in evolution, he feared, jeopardized their belief in the basic power of science to explain the natural world — and their Allie Farris, far left, and Bryce Haas with their teacher, David Campbell, who helped develop Florida’s rules on teaching evolution. Kenny Krantz studied a fossil. PHOTOGRAPHS BY DARON DEAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES Evolution theory for some who believe God created all species in the last 10,000 years. ability to make sense of it themselves. Passionate on the subject, Mr. Campbell had helped to devise the state’s new evolution standards, which are being phased in this fall. A former Navy flight instructor with a straightforward manner, he fought hard for their passage. But with his students this spring, he found himself treading carefully, as he tried to bridge an ideological divide that stretches well beyond his classroom. The poor treatment of evolution in some state education standards may reflect the public’s wide- ly held creationist beliefs. In Gallup polls over the last 25 years, nearly half of American adults have consistently said they believe God created all living things in their present form, sometime in the last 10,000 years. But a 2005 defeat in federal court for a school board in Dover, Pennsylvania, that sought to cast doubt on evolution gave legal ammunition to evolution proponents on school boards and in statehouses across the country. Mr. Campbell, 52, who majored in biology while putting himself through Cornell University on a Reserve Officers Training Corps scholarship,had been teaching evolution anyway. But like nearly a third of biology teachers across the country, and more in his politically conservative district, he regularly heard from parents voicing complaints. One morning at Ridgeview, he bounced a pink rubber ball on the classroom floor. “Gravity,” he said. “I can do this until the end of the semester, and I can only assume that it will work the same way each time.” He grabbed the ball and held it still. “Can anybody think of a question science can’t answer?” “Is there a God?” said a boy near the window. “Good,” said Mr. Campbell, an Anglican who attends church most Sundays. “Can’t test it. Can’t prove it, can’t disprove it. It’s not a question for science.” Bryce raised his hand. “But there is scientific proof that there is a God,” he said. “Over in Turkey there’s a piece of wood from Noah’s ark that came out of a glacier.” Mr. Campbell chose his words carefully. “If I could prove, tomorrow, that that chunk of wood is not from the ark, is not even 500 years old and not even from the right kind of tree — would that damage your religious faith at all?” Bryce thought for a moment. “No,” he said. The room was unusually quiet. “Faith is not based on science,” Mr. Campbell said. “And science is not based on faith. I don’t expect you to ‘believe’ the scientific explanation of evolution that we’re going to talk about over the next few weeks.” “But I do,” he added, “expect you to understand it.” By TAMAR LEWIN and class (“so refreshing”) and her classmates’ Women’s colleges are a dwindling breed in the engagement in politics. On their trip to the Middle East, the American United States. So earlier this year the admissions deans of deans visited American international schools, the five leading women’s colleges — Bryn Mawr, British-model schools, Indian-model schools, coBarnard, Mount Holyoke, Wellesley and Smith, educational schools filled with children of expaall in the northeastern United States — went re- triates and schools of local girls who do not much cruiting to a place where single-sex education is mix with men. more than a niche product: the Middle East. Reactions varied, according to e-mail messagFor three weeks they visited schools in Jor- es from counselors and students at the schools, dan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and the United but over all the region seemed fertile ground for Arab Emirates, describing what a liberal-arts recruiting. For some families, the colleges reprewomen’s college can offer academically ambi- sented a compromise between the familiarity of home and an all-out plunge into American ways. tious students. “You could almost see light bulbs going off Everywhere, they talked about how women benefited from having their own colleges where in students’ minds, as if, ‘Why didn’t I think of them a while ago?’ ” said Jenwomen make up a large part nifer Melton, a counselor at the of the faculty and students are American School in Dubai. encouraged to excel in maleIn the 1960s, there were dominated fields like science about 300 women’s colleges in and math. And they flaunted the United States; now there their accomplished alumnae, are fewer than 60. But Bryn including Hillary Rodham Mawr, Barnard, Mount HolyClinton, Katharine Hepburn oke, Wellesley and Smith — and Madeleine K. Albright. known as the Sisters, those of “We still prepare a disprothe storied Seven Sisters left portionate number of women after Radcliffe merged with scientists,” Jenny Rickard, Harvard and Vassar began dean of admissions at Bryn admitting men — are thriving, Mawr, near Philadelphia, attracting record numbers of said in describing the presentations. “We’re really about high-achieving applicants, the empowerment of women who are drawn by their history and enabling women to get a of academic prominence. top-notch education.” Still, most American high Like universities across school girls never consider apthe United States, the five plying to a women’s college. So women’s colleges are expand- All-women schools say single- an influx of applications from the Middle East would be espeing their overseas recruiting, sex education is beneficial. cially welcome. and although reaching out to Wellesley College in 1906. Over all, the deans said, sellthe Middle East seems logical ing single-sex education was to them, in some ways it is an less difficult than selling the liberal arts in a reodd fit. While single-sex schools in the Middle East gion where professional education is more the are protected environments, reflecting women’s norm. “The question we got most often was, ‘What traditional roles in Muslim society, the American colleges are liberal strongholds where students would I do afterwards?’ ” said Ms. Rickard. Several high school counselors said their stufiercely debate political action and gender identity. Middle Eastern students who already attend dents had been impressed with the lively confithese colleges tell of a transition that can be jar- dence of the deans, viewing them as role models. Diane Anci, dean of admission at Mount Holyoke, ring. Pasangi Perera Weerasingag, who attended in Massachusetts, recalls a like moment. “After one long presentation in Dubai, where a coeducational British-model high school in Dubai, said that when she arrived at Mount Holy- the audience was rapt,” she said, “one of the girls oke last year, she was shocked by the presence of came up afterward, very bright-eyed, and said: ‘I so many lesbians among the students. But she ad- don’t know exactly what I want to do, but I know justed, she says, and now loves the environment, I want to do great things. And I know if I come to with the widespread willingness to discuss race one of your schools, I will do great things.’ ” Siège social : 27, avenue de Friedland - 75008 Paris - RCS 187 500 038 - Imprimeur : Contrast Women’s Colleges Look to the Mideast Learn on Monday Lead on Tuesday Gil Mendelson, HEC MBA 2009 HEC Part Time MBA. The MBA with immediate impact.* www.mba.hec.edu Repubblica NewYork VIII MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 ARTS & STYLES The Endless Runway’s Fading Aura ROSENBACH MUSEUM AND LIBRARY, PHILADELPHIA Maurice Sendak says he is thrilled with the coming film by Spike Jonze based on his book “Where the Wild Things Are” (1963). Concerns Beyond Where The Wild Things Are By PATRICIA COHEN Maurice Sendak’s 80th year which ONLINE: MAURICE SENDAK ended with his birthday earlier this More on the author and illustrator, summer was a tough one. He has been including interviews, articles and gripped by grief since the death of reviews: nytimes.com/books his longtime partner; a recent triplebypass has temporarily left him too weak to work or take long walks with his dog; and he is plagued by Norman was a boy); he hates anything to do with God or religion, and Judaism Rockwell. Or, to be more accurate, he is (“We were the ‘chosen people,’ chosen plagued by the question that has re- to be killed?”); he hates Salman Rushpeatedly been asked about Norman die (for writing an excoriating review Rockwell: was he a great artist or a of one of his books); he hates syrupy animation, which is why he is thrilled mere illustrator? “Mere illustrator,” he said, repeat- with Spike Jonze’s coming film of his ing the phrase with contempt. It’s not book “Where the Wild Things Are.” Was there anything he had never that Mr. Sendak, who has illustrated more than 100 books, including many been asked in interviews? He paused he wrote, is angry that people question for a few moments and answered, Rockwell’s talent; rather, he fears he “Well, that I’m gay.” He lived with Eugene Glynn, a psyhas not risen above the “mere illustrachoanalyst, for 50 years tor” label himself. before Dr. Glynn’s death Never mind that Mr. in May 2007. He never told Sendak’s originality and his parents: “All I wanted emotional honesty have was to be straight so my changed the shape of chilparents could be happy. dren’s literature; that his They never, never, never work is featured in museknew.” ums; that he has designed Children protect their costumes and sets for opparents, Mr. Sendak said. eras, ballets and theater; JOYCE DOPKEEN/ It was like the time he had that he has won a chest THE NEW YORK TIMES a heart attack at 39. His full of awards and prizes. Mr. Sendak has had mother was dying from As the playwright Tony cancer, and he decided Kushner, one of his collab- a year of turmoil. to keep the news to himorators, said, “He’s one of self, something he now the most important, if not the most important, writers and artists regrets. His latest book is one he started ever to work in children’s literature. In fact, he’s a significant writer and artist about four years ago, right after Dr. Glynn became sick with lung cancer. in literature. Period.” Mr. Sendak protested, “But Tony is Mr. Sendak is mostly finished with it, but he admitted that for the first time, my friend.” Even his heart attack isn’t good “I feel extremely vulnerable.” He is afraid, not of death, but of not enough. People aren’t impressed with a triple bypass, he lamented; now it being able to finish his work: “I feel has to be a quadruple: “You feel like like I don’t have a lot of time left.” He spends his days pondering his such a failure.” That Mr. Sendak fears that his work heroes: Mozart, Keats, Blake, Melis inadequate, that he is racked with ville and Dickinson. He admires and insecurity and anxiety, is no surprise. yearns for their “ability to be private, For more than 50 years that has been the ability to be alone, the ability to folthe hallmark of his art. The extermi- low some spiritual course not written nation of most of his relatives and mil- down by anybody.” Mr. Sendak is quick to insist that a lions of other Jews by the Nazis; the intrusive, unemployed immigrants vast distance stands between his own who survived and crowded his par- accomplishments and theirs. “I’m not ents’ small apartment; his sickly one of those people,” he said. “I can’t childhood; his mother’s dark moods; pretend to be.” Still, he has the feeling that “I will do his own ever-present depression — all lurk below the surface of his work. something yet that is purely for me but He is not, as children’s book writers will create for someone in the future are often supposed, an everyman’s that passion that Blake and Keats did grandpapa. His hatreds are fierce and in me.” grand. He hates his uncle (who made What he has failed to consider, a cruel comment about him when he though, is that he may already have. NEW YORK — The catwalks at Fashion Week in early September were filled with nude, the color no one has ever been. The talented and obscure young designer Patrik Rzepski, whose clothes are sold in three boutiques in Asia, opened the week with a show in which ESSAY the models came out clad in nude-colored skintight leggings that zippered up the back like a stocking seam. “People think beautiful means innocent,” Mr. Rzepski said. “I think beautiful can be tough as nails.” When it comes to Fashion Week, truer words have rarely been uttered. The sisters Kate and Laura Mulleavy offered a parade of nude dresses as form-fitting as Band-Aids and roughly the same color. Derek Lam presented a veritable nude symphony with a nude jersey tunic and a nude double georgette onepiece and then a nude striped knit pointelle mesh dress. If nude has been everywhere, so too have zippers and flounces and dégradé effects that recall the Hollywood designer Jean Louis and, lastly, a million references to the un-killable 1980s, the decade that looks even more insipid the second time around (or the third, if one considers that much seen on New York runways shamelessly reprises the collective homage to “Dynasty,” the television soap opera, on offer in Europe a season ago). There is no putting off the rumblings heard throughout Fashion Week that the business, in its unprecedented international expansion, may have lost sight of some key fundamentals. Like music, fashion is a tribal business. While it used to be the case that mainstream designers observed this by taking style cues from punks or hiphop artists or surfers or skateboarders, they are now forced to contend with the reality that those people are less readily exploited than before. These days they all want their own lines. “We’re living in a karaoke world,” Malcolm McLaren, the music impresario, fashion visionary and cultural gadfly, said recently, his voice rising to an animated pitch as he stood on the red carpet at the Calvin Klein anniversary party. What specifically aroused Mr. McLaren was next month’s auction at Christie’s London of rarities from the archives of the high-end vintage store Resurrection, which includes a variety of 1970s items attributed to Mr. McLaren and Vivienne Westwood, who if they did not invent the aesthetics of punk, formalized them commercially. In Mr. McLaren’s view, which he has pursued in the news media and also in court, the McLaren and Westwood garments are mostly modern copies. Whether that is so (Christie’s stands by their authenticity), the larger questions Mr. McLaren raises have bearing on the hollowness of much contemporary aesthetic production, fashion not excluded. What is the point of cultural GUY TREBAY JASON DECROW/ASSOCIATED PRESS Derek Lam had a parade of nude dresses during New York Fashion Week, which some say may be losing personality. Above, the actress Mena Suvari, left, with Simone Sestito in the Prada store; a Ruca party, right. PHOTOGRAPHS BY ELIZABETH LIPPMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES artifacts if they are not connected to any specific culture? “Warhol’s 15 minutes have gone mad,” Mr. McLaren said as groups of interchangeable demi-celebrities marched by. “Everyone is going around trying to authenticate the fake.” Versions of Mr. McLaren’s ideas seemed to come up again and again during Fashion Week. Fashion, said the great model Veruschka — born Vera Gottliebe Anna Gräfin von Lehndorff-Steinort in what was then East Prussia in 1939 — was still a tribal world when she came on the scene in the 1960s. Her work is celebrated, or memorialized, in a lavish new Assouline book as large as a tombstone and, at $500, costing nearly as much. “Diana Vreeland was always open to the new, to interesting things,” she remarked, referring to the Vogue editor who had a keen eye for talent and none for the bottom line. “She didn’t look at the money market. She didn’t ask the cost of things. Sometimes I ask myself, ‘Why are people remembering me?’ My answer is that the people I worked with, Dick Avedon and the others, put so much into the pictures. A photograph has an aura, and so in many fashion images you look at now, there is no aura. The light is out.” People in fashion and possibly even the business itself have lost personality, the designer Miguel Adrover lamented one morning at his temporary studio on Lower Broadway. Throughout the loft, people from his team worked silently on a series of unique garments, made under the sponsorship of the German organics manufacturer Hess Natur. “These days the fashion culture feels so empty,” he said in his idiosyncratic English. Mr. Adrover quit New York four years ago to open a bar in his native Majorca. Back for a brief Fashion Week appearance, he remarked that his commitment to the scene is provisional. “Everything next, next, next, everything V.I.P., it’s an empty idea,” he said. Mr. Adrover said: “You don’t feel like digging for meaning right now in fashion, because you dig and dig, and you don’t find nothing.” And then he went on digging regardless — as everyone does, fueled by the often unaccountable optimism that the hunt for the new and the next always seems to inspire. Brooklyn Rapper Ventures Into the Independent Film Business By MELENA RYZIK NICOLE BENGIVENO/THE NEW YORK TIMES Adam Yauch, once a Beastie Boy, has added an independent-film distribution division to his firm. Every day the Beastie Boy known as MCA, who spent years rapping about girls and parties and the five boroughs of New York, goes to work in an office. Sure, it’s a cool one: the former headquarters of a paint company, it is a loftlike space filled with surfboards, skateboards, flea market paintings and his fellow Beastie Mike D.’s records. In this atmosphere of dudes, MCA has become the Boss. Of course, it’s been a long time since MCA, born Adam Yauch, was known only as a hip-hop artist. In the 1990s he and his band mates founded an indie record label, Grand Royal, and a related magazine; both eventually folded. Under the name Nathanial Hörnblowér, he has directed many of the Beastie Boys’ music videos and their 2006 concert film. This year, under his own name, he released “Gunnin’ for That #1 Spot,” a From music videos for the Beastie Boys to acclaim at Cannes. documentary about high school basketball players. Now, despite formidable odds, he is pursuing his cinematic interests with a new division of his company, Oscilloscope, which acquires, produces and distributes independent movies. Its latest release is “Flow,” a documentary about global water problems. Also on the schedule is “Wendy and Lucy,” a Cannes favorite starring Michelle Williams that will screen at the New York Film Festival on September 27 and 28. As part of Oscilloscope Laboratories, which includes a recording studio and production facilities, Oscilloscope Pictures will operate in a model similar to an independent record label, Mr. Yauch, 44, said over green tea in a de facto conference room at his office in TriBeCa, in lower Manhattan. “What I really liked about indie record labels — the indie record labels that I liked, anyway — is that things were done in-house,” he said. Unlike most independent film distributors, which outsource nonglamorous aspects of moviemaking like poster design, marketing and DVD production, Oscilloscope’s employees — a tour revealed 10 young guys in skate shoes and headphones bent over laptops — will handle everything themselves, including handpicking which theaters their films will end up at. The company’s hands-on style has a built-in appeal for indie auteurs like Kelly Reichardt, the director of “Wendy and Lucy.” “It seemed like a lot of ways that they were working was similar to how I’ve been making films,” Ms. Reichardt said. For now the office is more of a draw than the stage for Mr. Yauch. “I don’t know if I’ll ever keep playing music in such a public way,” he said. “I don’t know if I’ll always want to make records. Thrusting myself into that world, having the record company kind of like ramming records down people’s throat, that can be a weird experience. When you’re trying to market something on a large scale, sometimes it’s nicer to just do something a little more subtly.” He sipped his green tea. “Yeah,” he said, “I could see doing this for a long time.” Repubblica NewYork