International return migration and remittances in Brazil

International return migration and remittances in Brazil∗
André Braz Golgher♣
Key-words: international migration, remittances.
ABSTRACT
In the end of the nineteen century and in the beginning of the twentieth, Brazil was one of
the major places of population attraction in the World. However, since the eighties, this
country shows a tendency to lose population to the rest of the Globe. Many international
emigrants from Brazil still live in other countries, nonetheless a sizable proportion return
after a period abroad. Most migrants tend to return to their original place of residence or to
somewhere close to their origin, as social ties binds together migrants and friends and
family that did not migrate, enhancing the possibility that a migrant while abroad will send
remittances to these individuals.
We empirically discussed these topics in this paper. Most Brazilians international
migrants return from just a few countries: Paraguay, United States and Japan. The destiny
of these flows are very localized: some border states for the first of these countries, such as
Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso; São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais
for the second; and São Paulo and Paraná for the third. Moreover, specific microregions
from these states concentrated most international return migrants, as was characterized by
the multivariate technique of Cluster Analyses. Although the destiny was highly
concentrated, and surely are the remittances sent, we could not apprehend effectively this
type of transfers from other types of earnings using the 2000 Demographic Census data
aggregated for microregions. However, the results for households’ distributions in
municipality did show some insightful relations between international return migration and
remittances, although analyses via contingence table did not show statistical significance.
∗
Trabalho apresentado no XVI Encontro Nacional de Estudos Populacionais, realizado em Caxambu- MG –
Brasil, de 29 de setembro a 03 de outubro de 2008.
♣
Cedeplar/UFMG
International return migration and remittances in Brazil∗
André Braz Golgher♣
INTRODUCTION
In the end of the nineteen century and in the beginning of the twentieth, Brazil was one of
the major places of population attraction in the World. Approximately until the sixties in
this last century, Brazil still had a positive international net migration (Fusco et al, 2002).
However, recently, since the eighties, the country showed a tendency to lose population to
other countries in the World (Prefeitura de São Paulo, 2002). For instance, Brazilian net
migration was estimated as -2034161 and -1114890 respectively for the period between
1980 and 1990 and between 1991 and 1996 (Golgher, 2004).
Normally, migrants search for better opportunities in the labor market and also for
places with greater quality of life. Another feature that promotes migration is the migrants´
possibility to send remittances to friends or members of his family that did not migrate.
These transfers impact on the households’ wellbeing in the place of origin
decisively, as was observed by Hagen-Zanker and Castillo (2005) for El Salvador, given
that a bulk part of remittances are used to cover basic necessities in the household, such as
food, housing and utilities. Remittances are also important for human capital investments
on children, and as a cushion against shocks, environmental or macroeconomic, minimizing
risks (Hagen-Zanker and Casillo, 2005; Vasconcelos, 2005).
Although remittances are vital for many households, as they may increase their
budget, they are not always seen as beneficial for the society as a whole. These transfers
should not be seen as an exogenous source of income with no further impact on the local
society, as they may be a potential substitute for home earnings, changing decisions of who
stay behind. Moreover, the local economy loses labor force, as migrants go abroad, and this
may also have a negative impact. Besides that, especially for developing economies, where
∗
Trabalho apresentado no XVI Encontro Nacional de Estudos Populacionais, realizado em Caxambu- MG –
Brasil, de 29 de setembro a 03 de outubro de 2008.
♣
Cedeplar/UFMG
households’ earnings tend to be small, inequality may increase with remittances (Barham
and Boucher, 1998).
Besides being important to micro aspects of the family life and locally, in a macro
perspective, remittances may also play a decisive role in the economy. In many countries,
mostly low income ones with a considerable proportion of its´ citizens living abroad,
remittances are a large part of the GDP (data for 2002), such as in Haiti (33%), in
Nicaragua (29%), in Jamaica (23%), in El Salvador (18%) and in Honduras (16%) (Orozco,
2004; Hagen-Zanker and Castillo, 2005). In Brazil, this proportion was much smaller,
around 1%, and, hence, less important in a macroeconomic perspective.
Even though the numbers are small as a percentage of the Brazilian whole economy,
the total amount of remittances sent to Brazil is one of the largest among the countries in
the World. In Latin America, it was the second largest, losing only to Mexico, with over 5
billion US dollars sent in 2003. Moreover, it was observed an increasing tendency during
the 2001-2003 period, when remittances more than doubled (Orozco, 2004).
Moreover, these figures are normally underestimated. The real amount of money
sent is much higher than the officially recognized. Besides that, migrants do not only
transfer cash, but also send goods, such as computers, household appliances, etc.
(Vasconcelos, 2005).
In Brazil, although the total per capita amount received as remittances is small, this
may not be true when only the receiving households are considered. For instance, in a study
for Nicaragua (Barham and Boucher, 1998), it was noticed that for those households that
received remittances more than one third of total household income was from them, and the
number was much smaller if all households were taken into account.
Remitters and their families are forging a new kind of family – the transnational one
(Vasconcelos, 2005), strengthening the importance of social nets for migration (Soares,
2004; Fusco, 2006; Hagen-Zanker and Casillo, 2005). While some members stay in their
origin, others go abroad in search for new economic opportunities.
Social nets are also important when migrants return to their country of origin, as a
sizable proportion return home after a period abroad. Many of these migrants tend to return
to their original place of residence or to somewhere close to their origin.
Based on this brief discussion, this paper has three main objectives. The first one is
to present some data for the international return migration in Brazil, giving an overview of
the process. The second is to determine the areas of preferential international return in
Brazil for different flows. Thirdly, we discuss remittances and the possibility to use the
2000 Census data to study this topic.
In order to do so, we divided this paper in six sections, including this introduction.
The second presents descriptive data for international return migration in Brazil, including
data for microregions with the use of maps. The third determines the microregions of
preferential areas of return with the use of the multivariate technique of Cluster Analyses.
The next section presents the results for remittances and discusses the possibility to use the
2000 Census data for this purpose with data for microregions. Then, section five discusses
the possibility to use this data but for municipalities. Last section concludes the paper.
DESCRIPTIVE DATA ABOUT INTERNATIONAL RETURN MIGRATION IN
BRAZIL
In this section, we present some descriptive data about international return migration in
Brazil. We used the Brazilian Demographic Census of 2000 as database. This database has
the information of place of residence in the reference date of the Census and also five years
before this. Native Brazilians that were in Brazil in 2000 and that declared a different
country of residence in 1995 were considered international return migrants in the period of
1995-2000.
Table 1 shows the number of these migrants by continent of origin. Nearly half of
them had as origin another country in South America, 44.4% of the total, many in steps of
migration that were not very large. Asia, Central/North America and Europe had similar
numbers, between 16% and 20% of the total. The two other continents, Africa and Oceania,
had much smaller numbers, less than 3% for each.
Table 1 – Native Brazilians by region of return in 1995/2000 - Continents
Number of return
migrants
Region
Proportion (%)
Africa
1602
2.4
Asia
10969
16.3
Central/North America
11390
16.9
Europe
13094
19.4
Oceania
South America
Total
467
29911
67433
Source: FIBGE, 2000
0.7
44.4
100.0
Most Brazilians returned from just a few countries. Table 2 shows in order of
magnitude the ten countries that had more than 1000 return immigrants for the 1995-2000
period. They represented more than 80% of all the return migrants in Brazil. Three
countries, Paraguay, United States and Japan, were the origin of more than 58% of the total,
all of them with more than 9000 return migrants. The flows retuning from these three
countries are further discussed in details. The other countries in the table, five in Europe
and two in South America, had numbers between 1500 and 3000.
Table 2 – Native Brazilians by region of return in 1995/2000 - Countries
Number of return
Region
migrants
Proportion (%)
Accumulated proportion (%)
Paraguay
20857
30.9
30.9
United States
9624
14.3
45.2
Japan
9009
13.4
58.6
United Kingdom
2836
4.2
62.8
Argentina
2344
3.5
66.2
Bolivia
2092
3.1
69.3
Portugal
1953
2.9
72.2
France
1931
2.9
75.1
Italy
1866
2.8
77.9
Germany
1527
2.3
80.1
Source: FIBGE, 2000
Table 3 shows the proportion of the flows from Paraguay, United States, Japan and
the rest of World by the Brazilian state of destiny. The flows from Paraguay had as
preferential destiny states that were contiguous to this country, such as Paraná and Mato
Grosso do Sul. These two states were the destiny of more than 66% of all return migrants
from this country. Besides this, two other states that were close to Paraguay, Mato Grosso
and Santa Catarina, were the destiny for other 18.5% of the migrants. That is, 85% of the
migrants from this country had as destiny one of these four states in relatively short steps of
migration. For the other two countries discussed, the United States and Japan, the
distribution of migrants among the Brazilian states as destiny was very different. Only three
states were the destiny for over 58% of the return migrants from the USA: São Paulo, Rio
de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. Two other states had also considerable flows from this
country, which are the Federal District and Paraná. These five states had approximately
70% of all return migrants from the USA. For Japan, the flows were concentrated in two
destinies, São Paulo and Paraná, as 70% of all the migrants had one of these states as
destiny. These distributions differ from the observed for the rest of the world, which is
more evenly distributed.
Table 3 – Native Brazilians by region of place of residence in 1995 for each state in Brazil
Origin
Rest of
Destiny
Paraguay
United States
Japan
World
Total
Acre
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.2
Alagoas
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.3
0.2
Amapá
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.3
Amazonas
0.0
0.7
0.6
1.7
0.9
Bahia
0.2
2.9
0.5
3.5
2.0
Ceará
0.1
1.2
0.3
2.0
1.1
Espírito Santo
0.1
3.2
0.7
1.6
1.2
Federal District
0.6
9.1
2.0
7.9
5.0
Goiás
0.1
3.6
2.2
2.9
2.1
Maranhão
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.4
0.2
Mato Grosso
12.0
1.2
2.2
1.6
4.8
Mato Grosso do Sul
20.5
1.0
6.3
1.9
8.1
Minas Gerais
0.7
12.7
5.9
5.6
5.1
Pará
1.2
1.2
2.1
1.7
1.5
Paraíba
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.8
0.5
Paraná
46.1
6.6
26.9
7.8
22.0
Pernambuco
0.1
3.4
0.9
2.6
1.7
Piauí
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
Rio de Janeiro
0.4
19.0
2.4
14.0
8.9
Rio Grande do Norte
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.9
0.4
Rio Grande do Sul
2.5
2.5
0.6
5.2
3.4
Rondônia
2.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
1.3
Roraima
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.6
Santa Catarina
São Paulo
Sergipe
Tocantins
Total
6.5
6.3
0.0
0.0
20857
2.6
1.9
26.4
43.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
9624
9009
Source: FIBGE, 2000
5.7
26.7
0.5
0.5
27943
5.0
22.5
0.2
0.2
67433
We also analyzed the number of return migrants by microregion of destiny. The
number of international return migrants was divided by the local population in order to
obtain a relative number. Given the large number of microregions in Brazil, over five
hundred in 2000, we present the results with the use of maps, one for each country of
origin. The trend for the flows from Paraguay is very clear, as is shown in map 1 (best
analyzed in colors). The numbers in the legend represent the number of international return
migrants per 10000 inhabitants. All microregions are located: near de border, such as the
ones in the states of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Santa Catarina; or in the north of state
of Mato Grosso, which is the south frontier of occupation of the Amazon forest. There are
very few return migrants from Paraguay in the other regions.
The numbers for the USA are shown in map 2. They are much smaller than the ones
observed above for Paraguay and some results should not be considered due to small
sample fluctuations. Hence, it will be given particular attention only to the general trends.
An area with microregions from the east of Minas Gerais and from part of Espirito Santo is
one region of high values for the relative number of return migration from the USA. This
map also shows another area of high values in Rio de Janeiro state. These are the two main
areas of attraction for return migrants from the USA. Other medium or large size urban
centers are also among the areas of attraction, such as: Brasília (DF)/Goiânia (GO) axis,
Poços de Caldas (MG), Londrina (PR), Vitória (ES) and Florianópolis (SC).
Nearly all the largest relative flows from Japan had as destiny only one large area of
attraction that includes the north of Paraná, the east of Mato Grosso do Sul and the
southwest of São Paulo, as is shown in map 3.
Map 1 – Relative number of international return migrants from Paraguay
Immigrants from Paraguay
17
4
1
0
Source: FIBGE, 2000
Map 2 – Relative number of international return migrants from the USA
Immigrants from the USA
1,2
0,2
0,1
0
Source: FIBGE, 2000
Map 3 – Relative number of international return migrants from Japan
Immigrants from Japan
2,6
0,3
0,1
0
Source: FIBGE, 2000
DETERMINATION OF PREFERENTIAL AREA OF RETURN WITH CLUSTER
ANALYSES
The relative data presented above in maps was analyzed also with the multivariate
technique of Cluster Analyses. This technique attempts to identify relatively homogeneous
groups of cases based on selected characteristics. The objective here is to determine more
specifically the areas of preferential destiny for each one of the origins. In order to identify
these areas more insightfully, the relative number of migrants from each country was
adjusted so that the three modified distributions had approximately the same mean and
maximum values.
A study with five clusters classified all microregions in Brazil. Three of them are
shown, respectively for the flow from Paraguay, from the USA and from Japan, in table 4,
5 and 6. All the other microregions were classified in the other two clusters with few return
migrants from one of these countries and the results are not shown.
Table 4 shows the microregions that were classified in the cluster that had large
flows from Paraguay. It can be verified that there were short distance flows, to Mato
Grosso do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina; and longer distance ones, to Mato Grosso, as
was verified in map 1.
Table 4 – Microregions with large flows or return migrants from Paraguay
Microregions
Alta Floresta (MT), Alto Teles Pires (MT), Arinos (MT), Aripuanã (MT), Colíder
(MT), Paranatinga (MT), Primavera do Leste (MT) and Sinop (MT).
Mato Grosso do Sul
Dourados (MS) and Iguatemi (MS).
Paraná
Capanema (PR), Cascavel (PR), Foz do Iguaçu (PR), Francisco Beltrão (PR),
Guarapuava (PR), Palmas (PR), Paranavaí (PR), Toledo (PR) and Umuarama (PR).
Santa Catarina
São Miguel d'Oeste (SC).
Source: FIBGE, 2000
State
Mato Grosso
The microregions that were classified in the cluster with large flows from the USA
are showed in table 5. We observe two large areas: one with the three first states in Minas
Gerais and the one from Espírito Santo state; and the one with microregions of Rio de
Janeiro. Five other microregions are observed, one with more than two million inhabitants,
Brasília (DF), one with over 300 thousand people, Poços de Caldas, and the other three
with under 120 thousand inhabitants, Faxinal (PR), Floriano (PI) and Jaguariaíva (PR).
Due to small sample fluctuations, the results for these last three should be analyzed with
caution
Table 5 – Microregions with large flows or return migrants from the USA
Microregions
Aimorés (MG), Governador Valadares (MG), Mantena (MG) and Poços de Caldas
(MG)
Espírito Santo
Barra de São Francisco (ES)
Rio de Janeiro
Macacu-Caceribu (RJ), Santa Maria Madalena (RJ), Santo Antônio de Pádua (RJ)
and Serrana (RJ)
Others
Brasília (DF), Faxinal (PR), Floriano (PI) and Jaguariaíva (PR)
Source: FIBGE, 2000
State
Minas Gerais
Table 6 shows the microregions that were classified in the cluster that had large
flows from Japan. It can be observed that all of them were located in a large area with the
north of Paraná state, the east of Mato Grosso do Sul and the southwest of São Paulo, as
also observed in the map.
State
São Paulo
Table 6 – Microregions with large flows or return migrants from Japan
Microregions
Araçatuba (SP) and Tupã (SP)
Paraná
Mato Grosso do Sul
Assaí (PR), Floraí (PR), Londrina (PR) and Maringá (PR)
Cassilândia (MS), Nova Andradina (MS) and Paranaíba (MS)
Source: FIBGE, 2000
ANALYSES OF REMITTANCES FOR MICROREGIONS
The regions of preferential return areas may be among the ones in which remittances are
mostly important in the household budget. The 2000 Brazilian Census classified individuals
earnings in different categories for persons aged 10 years and above. These are: wages from
labor market; earnings related to pensions or to retirement; earnings from rent; earnings
related to alimony, allowance and donation; earnings from other official governmental
programs; and other types of income. This section discusses the distribution of these types
of earnings for microregions in Brazil. The main objective is to verify if microregions
located in areas with high levels of international return migration present a different profile
than other areas, with special attention to earnings from alimony, allowance and donation,
where remittances should be declared.
Table 7 shows some descriptive statistics about these types of earnings for
microregions. Labor income was more than half of total income in all of them and ranged
between 52.3% and 94.9% of the total with a mean over 75%. Earnings related to pensions
and retirement were the second category in magnitude with mean 17.7%, and with a range
between 2% to 42%. All the other types of earnings had much smaller means, although the
category other types of income had a quite large maximum. Notice that the values for
alimony, allowance and donation are quite small in all microregions with mean around 1%.
Table 7 – Descriptive statistics for the different types of earnings
Type of earning
Minimum Maximum
Labor income
52.3
94.9
Earnings related to pensions and retirement
2.1
42.3
Earnings from rent
0.1
5.1
Alimony, allowance and donations
0.2
2.2
Earnings from other official governmental programs
0.0
2.4
Other types of income
0.0
19.7
Source: FIBGE, 2000.
Mean
76.7
17.7
2.0
1.0
0.4
2.3
Table 8 compares the mean value of each type of earnings between a specific group and
the other microregions in Brazil that were not in any group of preferential destiny. The data
was analyzed separately for the microregions presented in tables 4 to 6. Besides that,
microregions that were in the preferential area of return from Paraguay were studied separately
for the ones with destiny in Mato Grosso and for the ones with destiny in Mato Grosso do Sul,
Paraná and Santa Catarina. The data for the microregions in the USA group were also divided
in two.
When the microregions with high proportions of immigrants from Paraguay were
compared with the rest of Brazil that was not among the preferential areas of return, it was
noticed that this first group had higher values for labor income and lower for earnings related
to pensions and retirement. All the other types of earnings did not show differences with
statistical significance. These same differences were observed when the microregions in Mato
Grosso were compared to the others. Notice also, contrary to the initially expected, that
earnings from alimony, allowance and donation were smaller in this area of preferential
destiny. All the other analyses did not show any statistical significance for the comparisons,
that is, the distribution of earnings in the different categories was similar among them and the
microregions that were not classified as a preferential area of return of any country.
Table 8 – Comparison for the different types of earnings for different groups of microregions
Group analyzed
Type of earning
Labor income
Comparison
group
All
From Paraguay
To MS,
To MT
PR or SC
All
From the USA
To MG or
To RJ
ES
From
Japan
All
76.4
81.7
87.5
77.8
76.6
79.4
70.8
79.2
Pensions and
retirement
17.9
13.1
7.71
16.6
17.7
15.4
23.3
15.1
Earnings from
rent
1.97
2.03
2.03
2.02
1.94
1.75
1.74
2.03
1.02
0.93
0.67
1.11
0.93
0.81
1.05
1.05
0.38
0.37
0.22
0.47
0.49
0.29
0.65
0.38
Alimony,
allowance and
donation
Earnings from
other official
government
programs
Other types of
income
Number of
microregions
2.29
1.90
1.83
1.95
2.34
2.30
2.39
515
20
8
12
13
4
4
Source: FIBGE, 2000. Note: Numbers bold faced are significant at 5%
2.26
9
ANALYSES OF REMITTANCES FOR MUNICIPALITIES
The data presented above did not show a different profile for the microregions that were
located in a main area of international immigrants’ absorption. Notice that the data was a
mean for microregions and not specifically for households. Hence, differences in
households’ profiles may be blurred due to the small proportions of them that receive
remittances, while the great majority does not receive this type of transfer.
Therefore, below, we discuss the data for remittances more focused and
disaggregated geographically. We continued to use data for alimony, allowance and
donation, but this data was filtered, as the interest here is in remittances. In order to
diminish the effects of earnings from alimony and allowance, earnings received by single
students that were under 25 years old, that is, the ones with the higher probability of
receiving allowance, were not included in the analyses. Moreover, the households with a
divorced women as a sole parent living with sons under 21 for students and under 18 for
non-students were also not included in the analyses, because these type of household
arrangement are the most prone to receive transfers as alimony.
In order to focus specifically on the household budget, we selected the ones that
were among the 1% with the highest earnings owing to the filtered data of alimony,
allowance and donation. The proportion of these households in each municipality in Brazil,
5507 in the 2000 Census. There were 138 Brazilian municipalities that had a proportion of
households in the upper percentile of earnings due to the filtered data of alimony,
allowance and donations above 3%. The great majority had small populations. Only three
of them, Ribeirão das Neves (MG), São Carlos (SP) and Brasília (DF) had a population
above 100 thousand inhabitants. Most municipalities, 91 out of 138, are located in five
states: Minas Gerais, with 16 of them, São Paulo, with 30, Paraná, with eight, Santa
Catarina, with 14, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 23. These states are discussed separately
below.
Map 4 shows these same results, but only for the municipalities in Minas Gerais
state. There are 16 municipalities with a proportion above 3%, six of them between João
Monlevade and Governador Valadares, located in the center-east of the state, area of
preferential destiny for the flow from the USA, all of them with population below 20
thousand inhabitants in 2000.
Map 4 – Municipalities with proportion of households in the upper percentile for donations above 3% in
Minas Gerais
Proportion
3 to 100 (16)
0 to 3 (837)
Source: FIBGE, 2000.
Next map shows the results for the states of São Paulo and Paraná. There was a
reasonable number of selected municipalities, 30 for the first and 8 for the last. Some areas
had many municipalities among these 38. Those are: the northwest of São Paulo, 12 of
them; and the region located form the center/southwest of São Paulo and the north of
Paraná, also with 12 municipalities. Notice that part of these areas is among the
microregions of preferential destiny for the flows from Japan.
Map 5 – Municipalities with proportion of households in the upper percentile for donations above
3% in São Paulo and Paraná
Source: FIBGE, 2000.
The states of Santa Catarina, with 14 municipalities, and of Rio Grande do Sul, with
23, also had many municipalities with high values for the proportion of households in the
upper percentile. It can be seen that two areas concentrate most of these municipalities. One
in the center of the Rio Grande do Sul state with 16 of them, and another in the west of
Santa Catarina and north of Rio Grande do Sul. When we compare the microregions that
receive international migration from Paraguay with the proportion of households with high
values of donations, only a small part of Santa Catarina shows high values for both.
Emigration from Europe and from, the rest of the World (results not shown) may explain in
part the results obtained for donations in the center of Rio Grande do Sul.
Map 6 – Municipalities with proportion of households in the upper percentile for donations above
3% in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul
Source: FIBGE, 2000.
These comparisons give some evidence of a positive correlation between areas of
preferential destinations for international return migrants and remittances. However, we
compared these same data via contingency tables and chi-square statistics for each one of
the areas of preferential destinations. None of the areas showed a statistically significant
result, that is, we could not reject the null hypotheses that municipalities with high values
for donations were randomly distributed among the microregions.
CONCLUSION
Brazilian data showed that international return migration is concentrated is some areas. The
three larger flows are respectively from Paraguay, from the USA and from Japan, each has
its´ own area of preferential destination, as some microregions: of border states for the first
of these countries, such as Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso; of São Paulo, Rio
de Janeiro and Minas Gerais for the second; and of São Paulo and Paraná for the third.
These areas may have a reasonable proportion of households with individuals who
used to live in them and now are living abroad. Some of this interaction can be verified by
the return of international migrants, but quite poorly. Surveys specially made to addresses
this topic would enhance greatly the possibility of analyses, not in the scope of the 2000
Demographic Census.
Despite the large amounts of remittances received in Brazil, surely a large
proportion of the households’ budget for many families, most in these areas of preferential
destination, the 2000 Demographic Census data was not a effective source to analyze this
type of transfers, although we could observe some blurry evidences, even with data for
municipalities regarding the distribution of households´ earnings. This may be caused by
limitations of both datas: for international return migration, the number are small even for
aggregated data in microregions; and for filtered earnings from allowance, alimony and
donations for households in municipalities, remittances is one of other possibilities and may
be poorly classified.
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