Presentation

International Expert Symposium - “Coping with Droughts”
Building a Community of Practice on Drought Management Tools
19th – 21 th November 2014, Santiago, Chile
Drought
Monitoring and Forecasting
in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto
Eduardo Martins
FUNCEME
Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Context
Monthly Climatology of Precipitation
FEB
MAR
MAY
APR
JUN
JUL
AUG
OCT
SEP
NOV
DEC
Seasonality of rain determined by N-S migration of the ITCZ
Rain Start: ITCZ reaches Southernmost (February)
Rain End: ITCZ migrates North of Equator (June-July)
Annual
Precipitation
Climatology of Precipitaion in Ceará
Seasonality of Orós Inflow
Annual
Evaporation
JAN
400
350
Mean
300
Median
Shalow soils, cristaline embasement which can frequently
be seen at the surface, higher evaporation, a highly
concentrated rainfall regime
Flow (m^3/s)
Quantile
(75)
250
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
12
Ephemeral rivers: run during few months of the first semester
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Context
High Variability of Rainfall
Regions
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Monitoring Network
FUNCEME Monitoring Center
METEOSAT Satellite Reception
(FUNCEME)
S Band and X Band
Meteorological Radars
(FUNCEME)
Meteorological DCPs
(84 stations)
550 Raingage Stations
149 Reservoirs Data
Tropical Atlantic Buoys Data
(COGERH)
(Pirata Project)
(FUNCEME)
(FUNCEME)
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Climate Forecast System
The state climate forecast includes:
1.Global Climate Models ECHAM 4.6,
CFSv2 +1 (CAM3)
Multi-ensemble: CPTEC/INPE (3GCMS),
INMET & FUNCEME (ECHAM4.6)
4
Regional
Climate
Models
(dynamical/statistical) + 1 (WRF 3.5) 
MRM
March  AMJ
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Water Forecasting System
RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTS & WATER ALLOCATION
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Water Forecasting System
RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTS – DYNAMICAL MODELS
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Water Allocation
Demand/Supply Scenarios Runs
SIGA - Integrated System for Management of Water Allocation
Evapotranspiration
Aridity Index
1971-2000
Precipitation
GCMS RESULTS FOR NE BRAZIL
2041-2070
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
WATER ALLOCATION IMPACTS
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Application on Rainfed Agriculture
40°0'0"W
Pedoclimatic Suitability
39°0'0"W
Assaré
Campos Sales
Farias Brito
Granjeiro
Aurora
Altaneira
7°0'0"S
7°0
Caririaçu
Potengi
Nova Olinda
Barro
Juazeiro do Norte
Crato
Santana do Cariri
Salitre
Araripe
Milagres
Dry Years
Barbalha
Crop
Abaiara
Missão Velha
Mauriti
Porteiras
Jati
C1 - C1
Plena
(sem
limitações
climáticas)
- Full
(without
climatic
limitation)
Penaforte
C4 - Moderada (por deficiência Hídrica)
C4 - Moderate (due to water deficiency)
C5 - Inapta (por severa dificiência hídrica)
C5 – Unsuitable (due to severe water deficiency)
8°0'0"S
8°0
40°0'0"W
40°0'0"W
Map of climatic
suitability
Beans
39°0'0"W
39°0'0"W
Assaré
Campos Sales
Farias Brito
Granjeiro
Aurora
Altaneira
7°0'0"S
Regular Years
Restrictive and/or
potential factors of soil
and climate
Map of pedological
suitability
Brejo Santo
Jardim
Legend
Legenda
7°0
Caririaçu
Potengi
Nova Olinda
Barro
Juazeiro do Norte
Santana do Cariri
Salitre
Crato
Araripe
Milagres
Barbalha
Abaiara
Missão Velha
Mauriti
Porteiras
Brejo Santo
Jardim
Legend
Legenda
Jati
C1 - Plena (sem limitações climáticas)
C1 - Full (without climatic limitation)
Penaforte
C2 - Plena (com excesso hídrico)
C2 - Full (with excess of water)
C4 - Moderada (por deficiência Hídrica)
C5 – Moderate (due to water deficiency)
8°0'0"S
8°0
40°0'0"W
40°0'0"W
39°0'0"W
39°0'0"W
Assaré
Campos Sales
Map of pedoclimatic
suitability
Farias Brito
Granjeiro
Aurora
Altaneira
7°0'0"S
7°0
Caririaçu
Potengi
Nova Olinda
Barro
Juazeiro do Norte
Santana do Cariri
Salitre
Crato
Wet Years
Araripe
8°0'0"S
Milagres
Barbalha
Missão Velha
Abaiara
Porteiras
Mauriti
Brejo Santo
Jardim
Jati
Legend
Legenda
Penaforte
C1 -C1
Plena
(sem
limitações
climáticas)
- Full
(without
climatic
limitation)
C2 - Plena (com excesso hídrico)
C2 - Full (with excess of water)
8°0
92 days
73%
2013
64%
2014
2014
Total duration of dry spells (days)
2013
Crop Loss (%) - Jan to May
Total Duration of Dry Spells (days) - Jan to May
102 days
2012
Crop loss (%)
2013
Crop loss (%)
Total duration of dry spells (days)
2012
2012
Total duration of dry spells (days)
Drought Impact on Rainfed Agriculture
Total Duration of Dry Spells x Crop loss - Jan to May
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
2014
Crop loss (%)
77 days
29%
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Northeast Drought Monitor
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Northeast Drought Monitor
Three Pillars of Drought Preparedness
1. Monitoring and
forecasting/early
warning
2. Vulnerability/
resilience and impact
assessment
3. Mitigation and
response planning and
measures
Foundation of a drought
plan
Identifies who and what
is at risk and why
Pre-drought programs and
actions to reduce risks
(short and long-term)
Indices/ indicators linked
to impacts and action
triggers
Involves monitoring/
archiving of impacts to
improve drought
characterization
Feeds into the
development/ delivery of
information and decisionsupport tools
Well-defined and
negotiated operational
response plan for when a
drought hits
Safety net and social
programs, research and
extension
STATE MET SERVICES/ EMATERS
Northeast Drought Monitor
INTEGRATION OF DATA BANK
METEOROLOGY
ANA
CEMADEN
CPTEC
INMET
•
•
•
•
•
STATE MET SERVICES
5 categories of drought
Initial frequency: monthly
Integration of data:
meteorological, hydrological and
agricultural
Participatory and collaborative
tool
Local validation
MAPA
INMET/
CONAB+CEMAD
EN
AGRICULTURE
INTEGRATION OF DATA BANK
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
ANA
CEMADEN
WATER RESOURCES
CPTEC
STATE WATER AGENCIES
INTEGRATION OF DATA BANK
15
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Main Indicators (12, 4 and 3 months):
• SPEI (Standardized Precipitation
•
Evapotranspiration Index)
SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)
Map generated with
SPEI12+ SPI12 +
SPEI 3 and 4 + SPI 3 and 4
Northeast Drought Monitor
Information to support decision:
•Soil moisture (Calculated Soil Moisture
Ranking Percentile – Monthly CPC/NOAA)
•Vegetation Index (Vegetation Health Index –
VHA – NESDIS/NOAA)
•Precipitation (accumulated and anomaly)
Map generated with SPEI12+
SPI12 + SPEI 3 and 4 + SPI 3
and 4 + impact indicators
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará
Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins
meiry@funceme.br
Northeast Drought Monitor
Planning for drought preparedness and how public policy
actions and contingency are triggered by the categories
indicated in the Monitor
Normal or
wet conditions
- Constant monitoring and
forecasting
- Implement long-term
mitigation actions outlined in
the drought plan (e.g.,
infrastructure and research)
Entering drought
- Implement short-term
mitigation actions; indicators
have associated triggers that
link with Drought Monitor
categories to spur actions in
vulnerable sectors pre-defined
in the drought plan
Immersed in
extreme drought
- Implement emergency
response actions; indicators
have associated triggers that
link with Drought Monitor
categories to spur actions in
vulnerable sectors pre-defined
in the drought plan
Normal or
wet conditions
- Back to emphasizing
monitoring and forecasting
and implementing long-term
structural activities in the
drought plan
International Expert Symposium
“Coping with Droughts”
Building a Community of Practice on Drough Management Tools
19th – 21 th November 2014, Santiago, Chile
Thank you!
meiry@funceme.br
www.funceme.br