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THE MESSENGERS
What birds tell us about threats from climate change
and solutions for nature and people
FOREWORD
Recommended citation: BirdLife International and National Audubon Society (2015)
The messengers: what birds tell us about threats from climate change and solutions for nature and people. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA:
BirdLife International and National Audubon Society.
ISBN NUMBER
978-0-946888-97-9
v
BirdLife International is the world’s largest nature conservation Partnership. Together we are 119 BirdLife Partners worldwide – one per
country – and growing with 13 million members and supporters, over 7,000 local conservation groups and 7,400 staff. BirdLife’s vision is a
world rich in biodiversity, where people and nature live in harmony. We are driven by our belief that local people, working for nature in their own
places and connected nationally and internationally through our global Partnership, are the key to sustaining all life on this planet. This unique
local-to-global approach delivers high impact and long-term conservation for the benefit of nature and people. BirdLife is widely recognised
as the world leader in bird conservation. Rigorous science informed by practical feedback from projects on the ground in important sites and
habitats enables us to implement successful conservation programmes for birds and all nature.
For more information, please contact:
BirdLife International
The David Attenborough Building
Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
Tel: +44 1223 277318 – Fax: +44 1223 277200
Email: birdlife@birdlife.org – Internet: www.birdlife.org
BirdLife International is a UK-registered charity, no. 1042125
The National Audubon Society saves birds and their habitats throughout the Americas using science, advocacy, education and on-the-ground
conservation. Audubon’s state programs, nature centers, chapters and partners have an unparalleled wingspan that reaches millions of people
each year to inform, inspire, and unite diverse communities in conservation action. Since 1905, Audubon’s vision has been a world in which
people and wildlife thrive. In 2014, Audubon published research showing climate change threatens hundreds of North American bird species;
its Climate Initiative aims to create greater demand for climate solutions – while protecting the places on the ground birds need now and in a
warmer future. Audubon is a nonprofit conservation organization and is the official BirdLife International Partner in the United States.
Learn more at www.audubon.org/climate and @audubonsociety
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COMPILERS
STUART BUTCHART, ALI NORTH, EDWARD PERRY, PEPE CLARKE, TRIS ALLINSON, GARY LANGHAM
v
CONTRIBUTORS
PETER ADAMÍK, MALCOM AUSDEN, ROBI BAGCHI, DAVID BAKER, MARK BALMAN, COLIN BEALE, RICHARD BRADBURY, MARK O'BRIEN,
ARIEL BRUNNER, IAN BURFIELD, CYRIL CAMINADE, MATTHEW CARROLL, DAVID DIAZ, KERRY EMANUEL, MIKE EVANS, ROB FIELD,
JAUME FORCADA, MORTEN FREDERIKSEN, RICHARD GREGORY, CHRISTINA HAGE, IAN HENDERSON, BRIAN HUNTLEY, ANDREA JONES,
ZBIG KARPOWICZ, SIMON LLOYD, ADE LONG, ANDREW MCKECHNIE, JENNY MERRIMAN, MICHELA PACIFICI, JAMES PEARCE-HIGGINS,
TOWN PETERSON, ROGER SAFFORD, IVAN SCRASE, LYNSY SMITHSON-STANLEY, PHIL STEPHENS, DIANA STRALBERG, NICOLAS TUBBS,
JORGE VELÁSQUEZ, ALKE VOSKAMP, ROSS WANLESS, JAMES WATSON, OLLY WATTS, STEVE WILLIS, CHAD WILSEY, BLAIR WOLF
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PROJECT COORDINATORS
MELANIE HEATH and PEG OLSEN
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The presentation of material in this report and the geographical designations employed do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the
part of BirdLife International concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area, or concerning the delineation of its frontiers or boundaries.
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THE PRODUCTION OF THIS REPORT WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE GENEROUS SUPPORT
OF THE JOHN D. AND CATHERINE T. MACARTHUR FOUNDATION
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FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT THE ACCOMPANYING WEBSITE AT
#BIRDSTELLUS
HTTP://CLIMATECHANGE.BIRDLIFE.ORG •
Over time and across cultures, birds have sent us signals about the health of our environment. The canary in the coal mine offered that most precious resource, time – a
small window in which humans could escape toxic gases. Miners no longer use songbirds as early warning systems, but birds are our closest connection to wildlife on the
planet and they still tell us about the health of the places people and birds share. Never before has their message – climate change is here and a threat to the survival of
birds and people – been as clear or as urgent.
This first-ever global synthesis by the 119-nation BirdLife International Partnership
draws on research from multiple disciplines and every continent. The findings are consistent across both: climate change attacks the natural systems that birds and people
rely upon. This synthesis emphasizes solutions to both buy us more time and to build
natural resilience for generations of people to come.
This report highlights the cost efficiency, importance and practical benefits of
nature-based solutions that can be implemented now, everywhere. While birds and
other wildlife tell us compelling stories about the impacts of climate change, only
people can act as nature’s negotiators. We can contribute to a set of solutions that humankind will need to employ if we are to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
We decided to collect and share examples of such solutions now because we are at a
critical juncture in the climate change conversation. The 21st Conference of the Parties
COP for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to be held in
Paris, shines a spotlight on how world leaders plan to help societies adapt to and limit
future warming. Technologies to speed up the clean energy transition and policies to
reduce carbon emissions will, of course, be critical parts of the response. But nature
itself can contribute common sense, locally-appropriate solutions.
Right before this report went to press Paris was wounded by terrorists. For people
like us, who strive to protect life in all its forms, the attack on human life is an atrocity
that we condemn. The COP gathering, which aims to build a brighter and safer future
for all, is a unique opportunity to emphasize our message: we cherish, nurture and
protect life. Because this is our Nature.
Patricia Zurita
CEO BirdLife International
BIRDLIFE INTERNATIONAL & NATIONAL AUDUBON SOCIETY THE MESSENGERS
David Yarnold
CEO National Audubon Society
3
INTRODUCTION
RED-CROWNED CRANES Grus japonensis
PHOTO DAVID COURTENAY/AUDUBON PHOTOGRAPHY AWARDS
THE MESSENGERS
WHAT BIRDS TELL US ABOUT THREATS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
AND SOLUTIONS FOR NATURE AND PEOPLE
Birds are far better known than most other animals, and they
are powerful messengers for the natural world. They are telling
us how climate change poses risks to nature and people worldwide. This synthesis of hundreds of scientific studies illustrates
the many ways that climate change threatens birds and other
wildlife. It describes actions underway to help nature adapt, and
also shows for the first time how the BirdLife Partnership is implementing nature-based solutions across the world to reduce
climate risks and build people’s resilience.
CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY HAVING
NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON NATURE
Many species are already struggling to adapt to the pace of
warming. Rising temperatures are driving species’ distributions
poleward and toward higher ground. Migration and breeding cycles are changing, leading to disrupted relationships with prey,
predators and competitors. In many cases, these effects have
driven population declines.
AS TEMPERATURES RISE, THREATS TO PEOPLE
AND NATURE WILL INCREASE
As warming continues, negative impacts on bird and human populations will multiply and intensify. While some species may benefit from rising temperatures, it’s likely that more than twice as
many species will lose out than will thrive. The key problems are:
Smaller living spaces
The majority of species are expected to experience shrinking
ranges, which will increase the risk of extinction.
Population declines
Many species will not be able to shift their distributions as fast
as climate changes or advance their breeding to match seasonal changes.
New communities and interactions
The composition of ecological communities will be disrupted.
Changes in predators, competitors and habitats will all pose
significant threats.
Current threats exacerbated
Climate change will exacerbate existing threats, such as habitat
fragmentation, diseases and invasive alien species.
Impacts on human health and well-being
People’s lives and livelihoods will be increasingly threatened
by climate change, with diverse impacts including loss of
homes, shortages of food and freshwater and increased incidence of disease.
Human responses could exacerbate climate impacts
People will have to mitigate and adapt to climate change, deploying new energy sources, migrating and creating new farmland. This could have substantial negative impacts for nature
and people who depend on it.
CLIMATE-SMART CONSERVATION AND NATURE-BASED
SOLUTIONS REDUCE CLIMATE RISKS
AND BUILD RESILIENCE FOR BIRDS AND PEOPLE
Despite the multiple threats climate change creates and exacerbates, this report sends a message of hope: we can reduce
the severity of climate change, and help species and people
adapt to a changing world.
As leaders of nature-based solutions, BirdLife International
Partners have the tools to ensure that climate solutions benefit
nature and the human communities that depend on it for their
livelihoods, protection and recreation.
From tropical forests in Indonesia to peatlands in Belarus, the
BirdLife Partnership is conserving and restoring carbon-rich
ecosystems, cutting global greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing the impacts of climate change on people and nature.
Mitigating climate change is imperative but not sufficient: helping life to adapt to a changing world is also crucial. BirdLife’s
network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) will
be ever more important as climate change shifts and shrinks
many species’ ranges, while protecting other intact natural
habitats and interconnecting corridors will also help life to
move and adapt.
BirdLife Partners across the globe are promoting and implementing ecosystem-based adaptation to build people’s resilience to storm surges, drought, flooding and other hazards, and
ensure ecosystems continue to support livelihoods in the face
of climate change.
Birds help people to engage with nature and understand the impacts of climate change. They are sending us powerful messages:
x
x
x
x
Cut emissions.
Help species adapt.
Invest in nature-based solutions for people.
Act now.
5
CONTENTS
CURRENT IMPACTS
8
PROJECTED IMPACTS
20
CASE STUDY 22
CASE STUDY 46
CASE STUDY 59
South-East Asian forest birds
will decline due to climate
change and deforestation.
Climate change is being
incorporated into
conservation spatial planning.
Climate Resilient Altitudinal
Gradients (CRAGs) provide
a focus for action in East Africa.
CASE STUDY 47
CASE STUDY 60
Many IBAs are projected to
experience high turnover in bird
species of conservation concern.
Mobilising citizen scientists
is aiding climate planning
in Washington, USA.
Restoring tidal marshes
in San Pablo Bay, USA,
benefits people and birds.
CASE STUDY 11
CASE STUDY 24
Recent bird population trends
in Europe show a strong signal
of climate change.
Some species have traits
that make them particularly
susceptible to climate change.
The degree of disruption to
bird communities in IBAs will
increase through the 21st century.
22
52
CASE STUDY 23
CASE STUDY 1
10
31
34
SOLUTIONS FOR PEOPLE
AND NATURE
53
CASE STUDY 48
34
61
44
Monitoring is even more
important under climate change.
CASE STUDY 35
Promoting smart, clean energy
helps avoid negative impacts.
61
CASE STUDY 61
53
46
Enhancing the resilience
of Sahel habitats provides
long-term benefits.
64
CASE STUDY 49
CASE STUDY 2
CASE STUDY 12
CASE STUDY 25
CASE STUDY 36
More species have responded
negatively than positively
to recent climate change.
Climate change
will increase the number
of species under threat.
Bird communities in California
will undergo substantial
disruption under climate change.
Promoting bird-friendly energy
infrastructure on the Red Sea
flyway benefits migratory birds.
11
22
35
Protected areas are helping
species to persist within existing
ranges and to colonise new areas.
CASE STUDY 62
54
46
CASE STUDY 50
CASE STUDY 3
CASE STUDY 13
CASE STUDY 26
CASE STUDY 37
Temperature changes explain
the declines in endemic
bird populations in Mexico.
There are projected to be
more losers than winners
under climate change.
Widespread and substantial
shifts are projected for
Colombian bird communities.
Strategically deploying
power lines minimises
bird electrocutions.
14
23
35
Identifying new sites
increases the resilience
of the IBA network.
Species are shifting
their ranges polewards.
14
CASE STUDY 14
CASE STUDY 27
CASE STUDY 38
47
Bird species richness in South
Africa is projected to decline
across different habitats.
Extreme weather events
will increase in frequency
and intensity.
Promoting environmental
safeguards for bioenergy helps
avoid detrimental outcomes.
23
38
Creating new wetland habitat
helps Bitterns adapt in the UK.
47
15
CASE STUDY 15
CASE STUDY 28
Half of North American
species are threatened by
climate-induced range loss.
Exposure to infectious disease
is likely to increase.
15
Most species will
experience range
contraction and shifts.
26
18
Some East African species
are projected to lose all their
suitable habitat by 2085.
CASE STUDY 18
Hosts of brood-parasitic
Common Cuckoos
are breeding earlier than
migratory cuckoos arrive.
Sea level rise will cause
trouble for birds on low-lying
islands in the Pacific.
27
27
30
CASE STUDY 20
Catastrophic bird mortality
events will increase
during extreme heat waves.
CASE STUDY 10
Climate-driven reductions
in krill numbers have caused
Adélie Penguin declines.
42
43
30
Restoring forests in the
Philippines’ Sierra Madre provides
benefits for people and nature.
49
Managing the matrix
of suitable habitat
between key sites will aid
movement of species.
CASE STUDY 43
CASE STUDY 56
Implementing REDD+ in Sierra
Leone reduces emissions while
benefitting birds and people.
Assisting colonisation
will help African Penguins
impacted by climate change.
49
CASE STUDY 44
CASE STUDY 57
Restoring mangroves in Mexico
enhances carbon sequestration
and benefits the community.
Conserving mangroves
in the Neotropics provides
a natural sea defence.
49
The threat from avian malaria
will increase for Hawaiian birds.
31
Converting natural habitats
to oil palm for bioenergy is bad
for birds and climate change.
43
THE MESSENGERS NATIONAL AUDUBON SOCIETY & BIRDLIFE INTERNATIONAL
CASE STUDY 45
CASE STUDY 58
Conservation planning
is incorporating climate change.
Realigning coasts helps
protect communities.
52
Connecting birds and
people helps mobilise
climate change action.
66
Empowering Burundi’s
Serukubeze community
to take climate action.
66
Exchanging knowledge
and lessons in East Africa
helps communities cope
with climate change.
67
CASE STUDY 68
59
There are still knowledge gaps,
and uncertainties remain in
the projected impact of climate
change on nature and people.
67
59
FOREWORD
3
INTRODUCTION
5
60
CASE STUDY 34
19
CASE STUDY 21
6
CASE STUDY 55
42
65
CASE STUDY 67
58
48
CASE STUDY 42
CASE STUDY 33
Poorly planned responses
to coastal flooding
have negatively impacted
waterbirds in the Netherlands.
19
Creating stepping stone
habitat patches may
aid range expansion.
CASE STUDY 64
CASE STUDY 66
58
48
CASE STUDY 41
Conserving forests in Paraguay
benefits climate, wildlife
and local communities.
CASE STUDY 32
Bioenergy expansion
without careful planning
will drive biodiversity loss.
CASE STUDY 19
Extreme weather will lead
to more frequent mass
mortality in European Shags.
The impact of climate change
on human communities
alters the assessment
of the vulnerability of IBAs.
A new approach to forest
conservation has been
developed in Indonesia.
CASE STUDY 54
39
CASE STUDY 31
18
CASE STUDY 9
39
65
CASE STUDY 65
55
CASE STUDY 53
Enhancing habitat corridors
allows species to move
among key sites.
Conserving the High Andean
wetlands supports
birds and people.
Building resilient montane
forest landscapes in Uganda
improves livelihoods.
48
CASE STUDY 40
CASE STUDY 30
Climate change is expected to
drive mass migration of people.
CASE STUDY 17
CASE STUDY 8
Higher temperatures have
increased predation by edible
dormice on woodland birds.
Restoring peatlands in Belarus
reduces carbon emissions
and saves waterbirds.
CASE STUDY 29
Impacts on food production
may be substantial.
CASE STUDY 16
CASE STUDY 7
Mismatches between
the timing of breeding
and food supply are affecting
Arctic shorebirds.
38
26
CASE STUDY 6
Bird communities are
becoming more dominated
by warm-adapted species.
CASE STUDY 39
55
CASE STUDY 52
Managing the hydrology
of peatland sites could help
Golden Plovers adapt
to climate change.
CASE STUDY 5
Rising temperatures are
forcing montane species
to move to higher altitudes.
64
CASE STUDY 63
54
CASE STUDY 51
CASE STUDY 4
Promoting sustainable
agricultural systems
increases resilience in the
Southern Cone grasslands.
60
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR POLICYMAKERS
68
REFERENCES
70
7
COMMON CUCKOO Cuculus canorus
PHOTO NEIL BOWMAN/MINDEN
CURRENT IMPACTS
Climate change is not just a concern for the future, but is already
disrupting life on our planet. Birds are the planet's messengers,
telling us that climate change is already posing danger.
Recent research has documented impacts that include:
x Distribution shifts polewards and to higher
ground to escape warming temperatures.
x Disrupted interactions with predators, competitors and prey.
x Mismatches in the timing of migration, breeding and food supply.
x Population declines resulting from these and other effects.
CURRENT IMPACTS
POPULATION TRENDS FOR WARM
AND COOL-ADAPTED SPECIES IN EUROPE
SPECIES' RESPONSES
TO RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
Source Gregory et al. (2009) PLoS One 4: e4678.
Source Pacifici et al. in review.
120
L
E
G
E
N
D
110
100
WARM-ADAPTED SPECIES
90
49%
24%
13%
14%
?
v
u
=
UNCERTAIN
NEGATIVE
POSITIVE
NON-SIGNIFICANT
COOL-ADAPTED SPECIES
80
70
POPULATION INDEX
60
YEAR
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
CASE STUDY 1
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
CASE STUDY 2
0 1
RECENT BIRD POPULATION TRENDS
IN EUROPE SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Warm-adapted species (those whose distributions are projected to expand under
climate change) have increased in abundance in Europe over recent decades, while
cool-adapted species (those whose distributions are projected to contract) have
decreased in numbers. The ratio of trends
for the two sets of species – the Climatic
Impact Index – shows a strong signal of
climate change on bird populations since
about 1990, with increasing values showing the overall impact of climate change on
birds is growing. Recent results for North
America are similar.
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS ALREADY
AFFECTING SPECIES
IN MANY, MOSTLY
NEGATIVE, WAYS
CETTI'S WARBLER
Cettia cetti
WARM-ADAPTED
SPECIES
COOL-ADAPTED
SPECIES
0 1
MORE SPECIES HAVE RESPONDED
NEGATIVELY THAN POSITIVELY
TO RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is not just
a concern for the future:
it is already impacting species.
Climate change has been
identified as an important driver
of bird population trends across
northern continents since the
1980s. A quarter of species
studied in detail already show
negative responses to recent
climate change, while only one
in eight responded positively.
A recent review of the scientific literature
shows that 24% of the 570 bird species
studied in detail around the world have
been negatively affected by climate change
to date, while only 13% have responded
positively. For half of all species, the impact
remains uncertain. Most negative impacts
demonstrated to date have related to reductions in abundance and range size.
ROUGH-LEGGED
BUZZARD
Buteo lagopus
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
YELLOWHAMMER
Emberiza citrinella
ARCTIC LOON
Gavia arctica
THE CLIMATIC IMPACT INDEX
FOR COMMON EUROPEAN BREEDING BIRDS
FREQUENCY OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF NEGATIVE IMPACTS
ATTRIBUTED TO RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
Source Gregory et al. (2009) PLoS One 4: e4678.
Source Pacifici et al. in review.
TYPE OF DECLINE
130
L
E
G
E
N
D
81%
x
ABUNDANCE
x
RANGE SIZE
x
SURVIVAL RATE
1%
x
BREEDING SUCCESS
0.2%
x
RECRUITMENT
120
28%
110
CLIMATIC IMPACT INDEX
24%
100
90
2%
INDEX
SET TO 100 IN 1980
80
YEAR
70
1980
10
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% Species
11
1,500 m
COMPARED TO 1979, KEEL-BILLED TOUCAN Ramphastos sulfuratus
AND OTHER LOWLAND SPECIES IN COSTA RICA NOW OCCUR
AT ELEVATIONS UP TO 1,500 m BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
PHOTO ANDY MORFFEW
18.5 km
GREY JAY Perisoreus canadensis HAS SHIFTED ITS RANGE NORTHWARDS BY AN AVERAGE
OF 18.5 km IN 26 YEARS, AND WARMER AUTUMNS HAVE BEEN LINKED TO REDUCED BREEDING
SUCCESS IN CANADA, LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED PERISHING OF HOARDED FOOD
PHOTO ELAINE R. WILSON
CURRENT IMPACTS
GAINS AND LOSSES SINCE 1950 OF BIRDS RESTRICTED TO MEXICO
SQUARES SHOW SAMPLED AREAS FROM WHICH PATTERNS WERE INTERPOLATED. GREEN INDICATES LOW VALUES, RED INDICATES HIGH VALUES
PERCENTAGE OF SPECIES SHIFTING THEIR DISTRIBUTIONS
TO HIGHER OR LOWER ALTITUDES
L
E
G
E
N
D
Source Peterson et al. (2015) Sci. Adv. 1: e1400071.
UPWARD
LOSSES OF SPECIES
12%
5%
5%
DOWNWARD
13%
22%
24%
NO CHANGE
35%
34%
36%
27%
44%
54%
64%
76%
24%
88%
29%
26%
78%
71%
17%
61%
60%
41%
36%
35%
30%
15%
29%
9%
GAINS OF SPECIES
CASE STUDY 3
NORTH
AMERICA
NEW
GUINEA
ITALY
PERÙ
BORNEO
The gains and losses of endemic bird species from sampling points across Mexico
in recent decades have been influenced
mainly by temperature change. Substantially more endemic species have been lost
from particular locations than gained.
CLAY-COLOURED THRUSH
Turdus grayi
GAINS
RECENT CLIMATE
CHANGE HAS DRIVEN
POPULATION DECLINES
AND DISTRIBUTION
SHIFTS
WORTHEN'S SPARROW
Spizella wortheni
3
MEAN NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE DISTRIBUTION
OF SPECIES IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA
Rising temperatures
and other recent changes
in climate have significantly
impacted species’ populations.
Although warming has
increased the abundance
of some adaptable species in
temperate regions, it has driven
declines in a much larger number
of species, and has resulted
in distribution shifts to higher
latitudes or altitudes. This has
already resulted in significant
changes in the composition
of bird communities.
SOUTH-EAST
ASIA
FRENCH
ALPS
1.38
km/year
UPWARD
Source Archaux (2004) Ibis 146: 138–144; Peh (2007) Condor
109: 437–441; Zuckerberg et al. (2009) Glob. Change Biol. 15:
1866–1883; Popy et al. (2010) J. Biogeogr. 37: 57–67; Maggini
et al. (2011) Ecol. Model. 222: 21–32; Forero-Medina et al. (2011)
PLoS One 6: e28535; Reif & Flousek (2012) Oikos 121: 1053–
1060; Harris et al. (2012) Raffles B. Zool. 25: 197–247; Tingley et
al. (2012) Glob. Change Biol. 18: 3279–3290; Auer & King (2014)
Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 23: 867–875; Freeman & Freeman (2014)
PNAS 111: 4490–4494.
DOWNWARD
OCHRACEOUS BULBUL
Alophoixus ochraceus
INCREASE IN COMMUNITY TEMPERATURE INDEX FOR BIRDS DURING 1990-2008
THE HEIGHT OF EACH ARROW IS PROPORTIONAL TO THE MAGNITUDE OF CHANGE
CASE STUDY 6
North America
non-breeding
305 species
1966-2013
2
0.012471
BIRD COMMUNITIES
ARE BECOMING MORE DOMINATED
BY WARM-ADAPTED SPECIES
1.26
km/year
0.68
km/year
North America
breeding
40 species
1979-2009
0
Many montane species are shifting their
ranges upslope to track suitable climate,
but there is considerable variation in responses, with some studies finding that
a significant proportion of species have
shown no change yet, or even shifted to
lower elevations, likely owing to changes in
rainfall patterns.
CHEQUER-THROATED
YELLOWNAPE
Chrysophlegma humii
1.84
km/year
Long-term studies in Europe and North
America show that many species are shifting their distributions northwards. Elsewhere, the picture is a little more complicated, with birds in Australia shifting their
distributions in multiple directions.
Source Zuckerberg et al. (2009) Glob. Change Biol. 15: 1866–
1883; Auer & King (2014) Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 23: 867–875;
Environmental Protection Agency (2014); Virkkala & Lehikoinen
(2014) Glob. Change Biol. 20: 2995–3003; Gillings et al. (2015)
Glob. Change Biol. 21: 2155–2168.
CALIFORNIA
RISING TEMPERATURES
ARE FORCING MONTANE SPECIES
TO MOVE TO HIGHER ALTITUDES
Source Devictor et al. (2012) Nature Climate Change 2: 121–124.
SPECIES ARE SHIFTING
THEIR RANGES POLEWARDS
SWITZERLAND
CASE STUDY 5
LOSSES
14
NEW YORK
STATE
0
TEMPERATURE CHANGES EXPLAIN
THE DECLINES IN ENDEMIC BIRD
POPULATIONS IN MEXICO
CASE STUDY 4
CZECH
REPUBLIC
Finland
breeding
94 species
1970-2012
UK
breeding
122 species
1990-2010
0.48
km/year
New York State
breeding
129 species
1983-2003
0.003174
0.00327
UK
CZECH REPUBLIC
0.003649
0.001193
NETHERLANDS
FRANCE
SWEDEN
The Community Temperature Index reflects the relative composition of warm and
cool-adapted bird species in Europe. It shows
that between 1990 and 2008, there was
a shift of communities to warm-adapted
species, owing to the increasing abundance and arrival of such species and decreasing abundance and local extinction of
cool-adapted species. These shifts have
happened slower than the changes in temperature across Europe during this period.
15
50%
THE EUROPEAN POPULATION OF ATLANTIC PUFFIN Fratercula arctica
IS CURRENTLY DECLINING AT A RATE EXCEEDING 50% OVER THREE GENERATIONS.
CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES IN FISH STOCKS ARE LIKELY A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR
PHOTO KEVIN VANDE VUSSE/AUDUBON PHOTOGRAPHY AWARDS
50%
OWING TO RAPID DECREASES IN SEA-ICE EXTENT,
ADÉLIE PENGUIN Pygoscelis adeliae POPULATIONS IN THE SOUTH
SHETLAND ISLANDS HAVE DECLINED BY OVER 50% SINCE THE LATE 1970s
PHOTO JO CREBBIN/SHUTTERSTOCK
CURRENT IMPACTS
CLIMATE CHANGE HAS CAUSED MISMATCHES
BETWEEN TIMING OF BREEDING AND PEAK FOOD AVAILABILITY
BODY MASS FOR BAIRD’S SANDPIPER CHICKS HATCHING
DURING OR OUTSIDE THE PERIOD OF PEAK FOOD SUPPLY
PREDATION RATES OF CAVITY-NESTING BIRDS
BY EDIBLE DORMICE
Source McKinnon et al. (2012) Can. J. Zool. 90: 961–971.
Source Adamık & Kral (2008) J. Zool. 275: 209–215.
30
CLIMATE CHANGE
HAS MOVED
THE PEAK ABUNDANCE
OF CRANEFLY LARVAE
EARLIER
ABUNDANCE
OF CRANEFLY LARVAE
0.5
L
25
E
G
E
N
D
0.4
20
0.3
1980-1984
0.2
2001-2005
15
10
MASS ON DAY 8
5
0.1
PROPORTION OF PREDATED BROODS
0
0
ARRIVE FROM MIGRATION
EGGS LAID
CASE STUDY 7
EGGS HATCH
CHICKS FEED
TIME
CHICKS HATCHING DURING
PEAK FOOD SUPPLY
COLLARED FLYCATCHER
Ficedula albicollis
CHICKS HATCHING OUTSIDE
PEAK FOOD SUPPLY
EARLIER PEAK
ABUNDANCE
CHICK
GROWTH RATE
In the Czech Republic, higher temperatures have allowed populations of the Edible Dormouse Glis glis to increase, leading
to more frequent predation on the nests
of woodland birds such as Great Tit Parus
major and Wood Nuthatch Sitta europaea,
although this does not yet appear to have
impacted population trends.
EDIBLE DORMOUSE
Glis glis
INCREASED
ABUNDANCE
GREAT TIT
Parus major
BAIRD’S SANDPIPER
Calidris bairdii
HOSTS OF BROOD-PARASITIC COMMON
CUCKOOS ARE BREEDING EARLIER
THAN MIGRATORY CUCKOOS ARRIVE
INCREASED
PREDATION
THE PROPORTION OF HOSTS THAT ARE RESIDENT
OR SHORT-DISTANCE MIGRANTS PLOTTED AGAINST SPRING TEMPERATURES
ADÉLIE PENGUIN POPULATION RESPONSES TO SEA-ICE EXTENT
AT SIGNY ISLAND, SOUTH ORKNEY ISLANDS
Source Møller et al. (2011) Proc. R. Soc. B 278: 733–738.
Source Forcada et al. (2006) Global. Change. Biol. 12: 411–423.
-60.12
-60.42
-60.72
-61.02
CASE STUDY 10
-61.32
0.3
0.8
HIGH LOCAL ICE COVER
HIGH FOOD SUPPLY
LOW SEA-ICE EXTENT
LOW FOOD SUPPLY
0.2
L E G E N D
L E G E N D
0.1
0.6
SEA-ICE EXTENT
(° LATITUDE)
0
Proportion of
hosts that are
resident or shortdistance migrants
0.4
-0.1
INTERANNUAL
POPULATION
CHANGE
-0.2
0.2
-0.3
Increase in spring
temperature since
1990 (°C yr-1)
0
-0.4
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.25
0.75
1.25
1.75
2.25
2.50
2
CLIMATE-DRIVEN REDUCTIONS
IN KRILL NUMBERS HAVE CAUSED
ADÉLIE PENGUIN DECLINES
-61.50
1.0
TREND LINE
0
HIGHER TEMPERATURES HAVE
INCREASED PREDATION BY EDIBLE
DORMICE ON WOODLAND BIRDS
Species interact with
predators, parasites,
competitors and other species
that they eat. Climate change
is already disrupting these
interactions through changes
in the abundance of interacting
species, the quality of food
supply or timing of biological
processes. Such effects have
probably been more significant
than the direct impacts
of rising temperatures
and other climatic shifts.
CLIMATE CHANGE
IS DISRUPTING
THE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN SPECIES
CRANEFLY LARVAE
TIPULIDAE
3
As spring temperatures have increased
since 1990, proportionately fewer nests
of resident and short-distance migratory hosts are being parasitized by
long-distance migratory Common Cuckoo
Cuculus canorus in Europe, as these hosts
are breeding earlier than the cuckoos are
arriving. This may explain cuckoo declines
in some countries (although overall trends
have been stable since the late 1990s, at
least in western/central Europe).
SPECIES
WOOD NUTHATCH
Sitta europaea
CASE STUDY 9
Increasing temperatures in the high Arctic
are bringing forward breeding times for
some shorebirds such as Baird’s Sandpiper
Calidris bairdii, but not always in line with
advances in the timing of peak abundance
of the insects that sandpiper chicks feed
on. Chicks raised outside the period of peak
food abundance grew significantly more
slowly, which may have subsequent effects
for chick survival and recruitment. Similar
results have been found for some populations of European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula
hypoleuca in the Netherlands.
18
BLUE TIT
Parus caeruleus
0
MISMATCHES BETWEEN THE TIMING
OF BREEDING AND FOOD SUPPLY
ARE AFFECTING ARCTIC SHOREBIRDS
CASE STUDY 8
GREAT TIT
Parus major
AIR TEMPERATURE
(° C)
The abundance of krill (Euphausiacea),
which dominates the Southern Ocean foodweb, depends on sea-ice extent. Warming
around the Antarctic Peninsula has reduced
the survival of juvenile Adélie Penguins
Pygoscelis adeliae as a result, while the
contraction of sea-ice away from food-rich
coastal upwellings has limited their access
to food. Along with more spring blizzards
causing breeding failure, climate change
has caused significant population declines.
19
COMMON LOON Gavia immer
PHOTO RICHARD PICK/AUDUBON PHOTOGRAPHY AWARDS
PROJECTED IMPACTS
As warming continues, threats to humans and birds will multiply
and intensify. Although some species may benefit, most will not.
A review of recent scientific research shows that as the planet warms:
x Climate change will result in more losers than winners.
x Most bird species are expected to experience
shrinking ranges, increasing the risk of extinction.
x Many species may not shift their distributions as fast
as climate changes, resulting in population declines.
x Ecological communities and interactions
between species will be disrupted.
x Current threats, including extreme weather
and diseases, will be exacerbated.
x People will experience many of the same risks,
and their responses could endanger nature.
PROJECTED IMPACTS
NUMBER OF SPECIES
VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
POTENTIAL ADAPTERS
MAY BE AT RISK
PERCENTAGE OF SPECIES PROJECTED TO UNDERGO RANGE EXPANSION OR EXPERIENCE MORE SUITABLE CLIMATE WITHIN THEIR DISTRIBUTIONS
BY THE END OF THE 21ST CENTURY (‘WINNERS’) VERSUS RANGE CONTRACTION OR LESS SUITABLE CLIMATE (‘LOSERS’)
POTENTIAL PERSISTERS
MAY NOT BE AT RISK
60
1,496
species
58.5%
493
species
EXPOSED
4,920
SPECIES
40
38.2%
20
0
SENSITIVE
6,290
SPECIES
1,511
species
42.2%
-20
LOW
ADAPTIVE
CAPACITY
5,337
SPECIES
1,599
species
64
species
12%
370
species
34.9%
32.4%
431
species
343
species
-41.8%
-60
-62.2%
E
G
E
N
WINNERS
LOSERS
% SPECIES
REGION
D
439
species
-40
2,323
species
L
-57.8%
-68.4%
-78.2%
-80
-88.4%
-100
HIGH LATENT RISK
NOT CURRENTLY AT RISK
CASE STUDY 11
AFRICA
HIGHLY VULNERABLE
AT GREATEST RISK
Source Foden et al. (2013) PLoS One 8: e65427.
0
MORE SPECIES
ARE PROJECTED
TO DECLINE UNDER
CLIMATE CHANGE
THAN ARE LIKELY
TO BENEFIT
COLLARED MYNA
Acridotheres albocinctus
MAY NOT BE
AT RISK
AT GREATEST
RISK
TAIWAN BARWING
Actinodura morrisoniana
CASE STUDY 12
EUROPE
EUROPE
(PROTECTED AREAS)
NORTH
AMERICA
CASE STUDY 13
0
THERE ARE PROJECTED
TO BE MORE LOSERS THAN WINNERS
UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Results from studies across different regions show that, on average, there are
projected to be more than twice as many
species whose populations and distributions may decline under climate change
than the number that are expected to increase. Generalist species are typically
likely to increase in population and range,
while specialist species are expected to
decline. The magnitude of these declines
is expected to increase with the severity of
climate change.
SLATY-HEADED
PARAKEET
Psittacula himalayana
WINNERS
LOSERS
WHITE-SHOULDERED
STARLING
Sturnus sinensis
PROJECTED SPECIES RICHNESS OF SOUTH AFRICAN BIRD COMMUNITIES
AVERAGED ACROSS THREE CLIMATE MODELS FOR TWO BIOMES
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SPECIES AT RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THOSE EVALUATED AS THREATENED BY BIRDLIFE ON THE IUCN RED LIST
3
ASIA
Although some species
are projected to benefit
from climate change
because their distributions
and populations are expected
to expand, there are likely to
be many more species that lose
out. Worryingly, many threatened
species are likely to become
more imperilled, while most
of the species projected to be
impacted (according to recent
studies) were not previously
recognised as under threat,
implying that the challenge
for conservation will grow
substantially.
SOME SPECIES HAVE TRAITS
THAT MAKE THEM PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
More than 2,300 bird species worldwide
are highly vulnerable to climate change
because they have a combination of high
sensitivity to its impacts (e.g. through their
dependence on other species), low ability
to adapt (e.g. by dispersal) and a high exposure to changing climate.
AFRO-PALEARCTIC
MIGRANTS
Source Huntley et al. (2008) PLoS One 3(1): e1439;
Barbet-Massin et al. (2009) Biol. Lett. 5: 248–251;
Hole et al. (2009) Ecol. Lett. 12: 420–431; Araújo et al.
(2011) Ecol. Lett. 14: 484–492; Bagchi et al. (2013) Glob.
Change Biol. 19: 1236–1248; Langham et al. (2015)
PLoS One 10: e0135350.
CASE STUDY 14
2
Source Huntley & Barnard (2012) Diversity Distrib. 18: 769–781.
CLIMATE CHANGE WILL INCREASE THE
NUMBER OF SPECIES UNDER THREAT
Globally, a quarter of ‘highly climatically
vulnerable’ bird species (based on their biological characteristics) are listed as threatened on the IUCN Red List, while only 1% of
climatically threatened or vulnerable bird
species in North America have been identified as of concern on the Red List. This suggests that climate change will increase the
number of threatened species and affect
those that are already in trouble. The magnitude of these effects will be related to the
degree of climate change.
22
BIRD SPECIES RICHNESS IN SOUTH
AFRICA IS PROJECTED TO DECLINE
ACROSS DIFFERENT HABITATS
20
608-851 species
CLIMATEVULNERABLE
7,550-7,793
SPECIES
THREATENED
1,455
SPECIES
15
L E G E N D
10
GRASSLAND
FYNBOS
5
MEAN SPECIES
RICHNESS
Source Foden et al. (2013)
PLoS One 8: e65427.
17-26% OF CLIMATE-VULNERABLE
SPECIES ARE THREATENED
48-56% OF THREATENED SPECIES
ARE CLIMATE-VULNERABLE
0
PRESENT
2025
2055
2085
YEAR
While some species of South African birds
are projected to expand their distributions
under climate change, more are projected
to contract, leading to average reductions
of 30-40% in the number of species in bird
communities in grassland and fynbos by
2085. This is likely to influence the functioning of ecosystems, especially since important pollinators such as Malachite Sunbird
Nectarinia famosa are projected to decline
more than other species on average.
23
8m
GREAT FRIGATEBIRD Fregata minor BREEDING COLONIES IN THE
PACIFIC ARE LARGELY RESTRICTED TO ISLANDS WITH A MAXIMUM
ELEVATION OF 8 m, MAKING THEM VULNERABLE TO SEA LEVEL RISE
PHOTO DANIELA A NIEVERGELT
36%
THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION OF ONE COLONY
OF EMPEROR PENGUINS Aptenodytes forsteri
IN ANTARCTICA IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 36% BY 2100
PHOTO CHRISTOPHER MICHEL
PROJECTED IMPACTS
NUMBER OF NORTH AMERICAN SPECIES CLASSIFIED
AS CLIMATE ENDANGERED, CLIMATE VULNERABLE AND CLIMATE STABLE
L
E
G
E
N
PROJECTED SPECIES RICHNESS OF 14 ENDEMIC SPECIES ACROSS TIME
GRAPHIC IS LOOKING DUE NORTH 'UP' THE ALBERTINE RIFT VALLEY
D
Source Langham et al. (2015) PLoS One 10: e0135350.
L
Source Unpublished data from BirdLife International, Durham
University, Wildlife Conservation Society, Makerere University,
Nature Uganda, ACNR Rwanda, ABO Burundi, Albertine Rift
Conservation Network and the RSPB.
IN ONE SEASON
18
species
CLIMATE ENDANGERED
Projected loss of >50% of current range,
with no net increase in range extent
166
species
G
E
N
D
WARMER COLOURS
INDICATE HIGHER RICHNESS
DARKER GREY COLOURS
REPRESENT HIGHER ELEVATION
BOTH SUMMER AND WINTER
108
species
E
PRESENT
2025
2085
CLIMATE VULNERABLE
Projected loss of >50% of current range,
with net increase in range extent
22
species
CLIMATE STABLE
Projected loss of <50%
of current range
46
species
228
species
NUMBER OF SPECIES
0
50
100
CASE STUDY 15
150
200
250
300
CASE STUDY 17
0
HALF OF NORTH AMERICAN
SPECIES ARE THREATENED
BY CLIMATE-INDUCED RANGE LOSS
In North America, modelling by National
Audubon (BirdLife in the USA) shows that
53% of species are projected to lose more
than half of their current geographic range
by the end of the 21st century. For 40% of
these species, loss occurs without associated range expansion, while for the others,
loss of current range is coupled with the
potential to colonize new areas. Based on
these results, one-fifth of species are classified as ‘climate endangered’, and another
third of species are classified as ‘climate
threatened’.
CASE STUDY 16
MANY SPECIES
WILL EXPERIENCE
DISTRIBUTION SHIFTS
AND POPULATION
DECLINES
AMERICAN TREE
SPARROW
Spizella arborea
CLIMATE
STABLE
CLIMATE
ENDANGERED
SOME EAST AFRICAN SPECIES
ARE PROJECTED TO LOSE ALL
THEIR SUITABLE HABITAT BY 2085
Results from studies across
the world suggest that
a high proportion of species
are projected to experience
distribution shifts and range
contractions, and their
populations may decline even
faster. Many montane species
will experience decreased
population sizes as their ranges
shift upslope, while those
species restricted to low-lying
islands will be impacted
by rising sea levels.
Bird communities in the Albertine Rift Valley
of East Africa are likely to be forced upslope
by an average of 350 m by 2085. Some
areas in the valley are projected to support none of the endemic species by 2085,
with at least one species – Red-collared
Mountain-babbler Kupeornis rufocinctus
– projected to lose all climatically suitable
habitat in the region.
LOSE
SOME HABITAT
REGAL SUNBIRD
Nectarinia regia
LOSE
ALL HABITAT
RED-COLLARED
MOUNTAIN-BABBLER
Kupeornis rufocinctus
AMERICAN BITTERN
Botaurus lentiginosus
MAXIMUM ELEVATIONS OF IBAs ON ISLANDS IN OCEANIA
TO WHICH SPECIES ARE RESTRICTED (TOTAL=147 IBAs)
AVERAGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS BY THE END OF THE 21ST CENTURY
3
0
CASE STUDY 18
2
Source BirdLife International data (2015).
MOST SPECIES WILL EXPERIENCE
RANGE CONTRACTION AND SHIFTS
Results from studies by BirdLife and others
around the world show that, on average,
species are projected to face 10-30% declines in their geographic range sizes, with
30-70% of their current distributions projected to become unsuitable by the end of
the 21st century.
Source Huntley et al. (2008) PLoS One 3(1): e1439; Hole et al.
(2009) Ecol. Lett. 12: 420–431; Barbet-Massin et al. (2009) Biol.
Lett. 5: 248–251; Doswald et al. (2009) J. Biogeogr. 36: 1194–
1208; Huntley et al. (2012) Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 21: 668–681;
Bagchi et al. (2013) Glob. Change Biol. 19: 1236–1248; Langham
et al. (2015) PLoS One 10: e0135350.
26
120
NORTH AMERICA 468 species
100
L E G E N D
80
SOUTHERN AFRICA
78 species
60
% OF CURRENT
RANGE
REMAINING
SUITABLE
8m
8m
7m
ASIA 370 species
EUROPE 429 species
% RANGE SIZE
CHANGE
10 m
10 m
EUROPEAN WARBLERS 17 species
AFRO-PALEARCTIC
SONGBIRDS 64 species
AFRICA 1,602 species
5m
5m
40
Polynesian
Ground-dove
Alopecoenas
erythropterus
20
Atoll
Fruit-dove
Ptilinopus
coralensis
Christmas
Shearwater
Puffinus
nativitatis
Great
Frigatebird
Fregata
minor
Kiritimati
Reed-warbler
Acrocephalus
aequinoctialis
0
0
20
40
60
SEA LEVEL RISE WILL CAUSE
TROUBLE FOR BIRDS ON LOW-LYING
ISLANDS IN THE PACIFIC
80
100
Tuamotu
Kingfisher
Todiramphus
gambieri
Tuamotu
Sandpiper
Prosobonia
parvirostris
Species on low-lying islands are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise. In
Oceania, seven species are entirely restricted to islands with a maximum elevation of < 10 m, including the Critically
Endangered Polynesian Ground-dove Alopecoenas erythropterus. Sea level rise
will also impact seabirds. For example, in
Midway Atoll, Hawaii, a sea level rise of
2 m would flood 39-91% of Black-footed
Albatross Phoebastria nigripes nests.
27
57%
THE AREA OF LOW MALARIA RISK FOREST AT ONE KEY SITE
FOR ‘I‘IWI Vestiaria coccinea ON HAWAII (HANAWI) IS PROJECTED
TO DECLINE BY 57% WITH A 2˚ C RISE IN TEMPERATURE
PHOTO JACK JEFFREY PHOTOGRAPHY
90%
CLIMATE CHANGE IS PROJECTED TO CAUSE ALLEN’S HUMMINGBIRD
Selasphorus sasin TO LOSE 90% OF ITS BREEDING RANGE BY 2080,
WITH ONLY 7% OF ITS RANGE PROJECTED TO REMAIN SUITABLE
PHOTO ALEXANDER VIDUETSKY/AUDUBON PHOTOGRAPHY AWARDS
PROJECTED IMPACTS
MODELLED PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION OF EUROPEAN SHAG COLONIES
IN RELATION TO WEATHER THAT IS MORE EXTREME THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE
AREA OF FOREST AT HIGH, MEDIUM
OR LOW RISK FROM AVIAN MALARIA
Source Frederiksen et al. (2008) J. Anim. Ecol. 77: 1020–1029.
Source Benning et al. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 99: 14246–14249.
1.0
14
L
0.9
E
G
E
N
D
L
12
E
G
E
N
D
0.8
10
0.7
0.6
8
PROBABILITY
OF COLONY EXTINCTION
0.5
LOW RISK
MEDIUM RISK
6
0.4
HIGH RISK
VARIATION IN SURVIVAL
DUE TO EXTREME WEATHER
0.3
4
HAKALAU NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGEE
(HAWAII)
0.2
2
0.1
TEMPERATURE
0
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
CASE STUDY 19
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
CURRENT
+2 °C
CASE STUDY 21
0
EXTREME WEATHER WILL LEAD
TO MORE FREQUENT MASS MORTALITY
IN EUROPEAN SHAGS
Extreme weather events are projected to
cause more frequent mass mortality for
European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis,
with increased rainfall and onshore wind
causing mass mortality ‘wrecks’. Population models show the potential negative
impacts of increasingly variable weather,
with an increased likelihood of population
extinction.
Extreme weather events
are projected to increase
in intensity and frequency,
which will likely have negative
impacts on many species.
Climate change will also increase
the severity of existing threats,
for example, by increasing
the frequency of fires,
or by facilitating
the spread of disease
or invasive alien species.
CLIMATE CHANGE
WILL ADD TO
AND EXACERBATE
EXISTING THREATS
INCREASED
EXTREME WEATHER
EUROPEAN SHAG
Phalacrocorax aristotelis
CASE STUDY 20
3
CATASTROPHIC BIRD MORTALITY
EVENTS WILL INCREASE
DURING EXTREME HEAT WAVES
Severe heat waves, which occasionally kill
large numbers of birds in hot desert environments, are predicted to increase in
intensity, frequency and duration. Hotter
temperatures will substantially increase
water requirements, particularly for small
birds, severely reducing survival times. This
is projected to occur much more frequently
by the 2080s, increasing the frequency of
catastrophic mortality.
1990s
2080s
DAYS DURING
JULY PER DECADE
SURVIVAL TIME (h)
Climate change is likely to reduce the area
of malaria-free habitat for endemic birds
threatened by introduced diseases in Hawaii, as the projected lifting of the cloudbase shifts the malaria risk zone to higher
altitudes.
MOSQUITO
Culex quinquefasciatus
SHIFTING UPSLOPE
LOSING MALARIA
REFUGIA
PALILA
Loxioides bailleui
SURVIVAL TIME FOR SMALL BIRDS IN THE US BY 2080
COMPARED WITH 1990s TEMPERATURES
PROJECTED % DECLINE IN POPULATION SIZE AND HABITAT AREA BY 2050
FOR THREE INDONESIAN FOREST BIRD SPECIES
Source McKechnie & Wolf (2010) Biol. Lett. 6: 253–256.
Source Harris et al. (2014) Diversity. Distrib. 20: 773–785.
CASE STUDY 22
90
-5
80
-10
70
-15
60
-20
50
-25
40
-30
30
-35
20
-40
10
-45
0
-50
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
2
SOUTH-EAST ASIAN FOREST BIRDS
WILL DECLINE DUE TO CLIMATE
CHANGE AND DEFORESTATION
0
100
L E G E N D
0
THE THREAT FROM AVIAN MALARIA
WILL INCREASE FOR HAWAIIAN BIRDS
INCREASED
MASS MORTALITY
30
AREA (Thousand hectares)
-38.6%
-29.5%
L E G E N D
% CHANGE
POPULATION SIZE
Climate change and deforestation together create multiple problems for endemic South-East Asian forest birds such as
White-eared Myza Myza sarasinorum.
Projections suggest distributions will decline by 19-42% and population sizes by
19-62%. Lowland species will be hit hardest by deforestation, while climate change
is the dominant threat for montane species.
HABITAT AREA
31
54%
ONLY 54% OF THE LILAC-BREASTED ROLLER'S
Coracias caudatus CURRENT DISTRIBUTION
IS PROJECTED TO RETAIN SUITABLE CLIMATE BY 2085
PHOTO CHARLES PETERSON/FLICKR
98%
THE AREA OF SUITABLE MONTANE FOREST FOR QUEENSLAND’S
ENDEMIC GOLDEN BOWERBIRD Prionodura newtoniana
COULD CONTRACT BY 98% GIVEN A 3° C INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE
PHOTO ETIENNE LITTLEFAIR
PROJECTED IMPACTS
CASE STUDY 23
3
PROJECTED TURNOVER OF SPECIES
OF CONSERVATION CONCERN IN IBAs IN AFRICA
PROJECTED BIRD SPECIES TURNOVER IN CALIFORNIA BY 2070
COLOURS REPRESENT DISSIMILARITY BETWEEN CURRENT AND FUTURE AVIAN COMMUNITY COMPOSITION, BASED ON THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FOR 60 FOCAL SPECIES
Source Hole et al. (2009) Ecol. Lett. 12: 420–431.
Source Stralberg et al. (2009) PLoS One 4: e6825.
MANY IBAs ARE PROJECTED TO
EXPERIENCE HIGH TURNOVER IN BIRD
SPECIES OF CONSERVATION CONCERN
Turnover in the bird species occurring in
IBAs in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to
be high under future climatic scenarios.
However, 88-92% of species of conservation concern are projected to have suitable
climatic conditions remaining by 2085 in at
least some sites where they currently occur. This demonstrates that existing IBAs
will remain important for conservation under climate change.
CASE STUDY 24
L
E
N
D
DISSIMILARITY INDEX
% SPECIES
TURNOVER
0 – 20
21 – 40
41 – 60
61 – 80
81 – 100
500 km
1
Bird community composition in two Asian
IBA networks is also projected to change
dramatically under future climatic scenarios, with an increase in species turnover
from 19% in 2025 to 43% by 2085. Models suggest that 45% of species will have
less suitable climate in these sites by 2085,
highlighting the level of disruption projected to occur in communities.
BIRD COMMUNITIES
WILL BE DISRUPTED
IN PROTECTED AREAS
AND IMPORTANT BIRD
AND BIODIVERSITY
AREAS
ASHY PRINIA
Prinia socialis
PROJECTED TO OCCUR
IN MORE IBAs
PROJECTED TO OCCUR
IN FEWER IBAs
TIBETAN SNOWCOCK
Tetraogallus tibetanus
The bird species
of conservation concern
for which IBAs have been
identified may not remain in
these sites as climate changes,
while other species may
colonise as climate becomes
suitable. Such turnover will be
high in the majority of IBAs and
protected areas. While these site
networks as a whole will provide
suitable conditions for nearly
all species of conservation
interest, disruption of bird
communities may affect
ecosystem functioning
and the benefits to people.
PROJECTED TURNOVER IN SPECIES OF CONSERVATION
CONCERN IN ASIAN IBAs BY 2085
SIMILARITY BETWEEN CURRENT AND PROJECTED SPECIES
RICHNESS FOR 2050 ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA
Source Bagchi et al. (2013) Glob. Change Biol. 19: 1236–1248.
Source Velasquez-Tibata et al. (2013) Reg. Environ. Change 13: 235–248.
0 – 0.203
0.204 – 0.285
0.286 – 0.4
0.401 – 0.5
0.501 – 0.808
200 km
CASE STUDY 25
0
BIRD COMMUNITIES IN CALIFORNIA
WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL
DISRUPTION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
Community disruption may lead to completely novel avian assemblages (i.e. combinations of bird species that do not occur
together anywhere at present) across
10-57% of California’s land area by 2070.
Even in areas retaining species currently
present, turnover rates are expected to be
high, resulting in a range of new species
interactions.
WOOD DUCK
Aix sponsa
GAIN
RANGE
LOSE
RANGE
MOUNTAIN QUAIL
Oreortyx pictus
CASE STUDY 26
2
WIDESPREAD AND SUBSTANTIAL
SHIFTS ARE PROJECTED
FOR COLOMBIAN BIRD COMMUNITIES
LOWER MEKONG (140 IBAs)
L
E
G
E
N
D
L
% SPECIES TURNOVER
E
G
E
N
SIMILARITY INDEX
0 – 20
21 – 40
0.04 – 0.22
0.23 – 0.4
41 – 60
61 – 80
0.41 – 0.58
0.59 – 0.77
0.78 – 0.95
150 km
81 – 100
34
G
L E G E N D
THE DEGREE OF DISRUPTION TO BIRD
COMMUNITIES IN IBAs WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE 21ST CENTURY
EASTERN HIMALAYA (163 IBAs)
E
D
Bird community structure is projected to
change dramatically in Colombia, with consequences for species interactions and
ecosystem function. Average species richness is expected to decline by up to 84%
in some regions, with the similarity of current species richness and future richness
projected to be as low as 30%. Such widespread and substantial shifts in bird communities will likely occur both within and
beyond protected areas.
35
52 M
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BY 2100, AN ADDITIONAL
52 MILLION PEOPLE IN 84 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
WILL BE VULNERABLE TO COASTAL STORM SURGES
PHOTO WUTTHICHAI/SHUTTERSTOCK
25 M
BY 2050, AN ADDITIONAL 25 MILLION CHILDREN MAY
BE EXPOSED TO MALNUTRITION OWING TO LOWER
CROP YIELDS RESULTING FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
PHOTO VALÉRIE BATSELAERE, PABLO TOSCO
PROJECTED IMPACTS
TOTAL POWER DISSIPATED ANNUALLY
BY TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
SIMULATED CHANGE IN WHEAT YIELDS IN THE TROPICS IN RESPONSE TO TEMPERATURE INCREASE
UNDER SCENARIOS INCLUDING ADAPTATION OR NO ADAPTATION
Source Updated from Emanuel (2005) Nature 436: 686–688.
Source Porter et al. (2014) Food security and food production systems. In: Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
6
40
L
E
G
E
N
D
L
5
20
4
0
3
-20
2
-40
RELATIVE POWER
DISSIPATED ANNUALLY
1
E
WITH
ADAPTATION
G
E
N
D
WITHOUT
ADAPTATION
TREND LINE
WITH 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
% WHEAT YIELD CHANGE
-60
YEAR
0
-80
1950
1960
1970
1980
CASE STUDY 27
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CASE STUDY 29
0
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY
AND INTENSITY
0
IMPACTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION
MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL
Climate change is expected to increase the
frequency and intensity of heatwaves, fires,
storms and flood events, with substantial
impacts on people. By 2100, it is estimated that an additional 52 million people in
84 developing countries will be affected by
coastal storm surges. Damaging typhoons
are increasing in frequency and severity,
causing considerable loss of life and economic damage. The risk of extreme summer heat events in Europe has already
quadrupled, with serious implications: a
heatwave in 2003, for example, resulted in
15,000 extra deaths.
CASE STUDY 28
LOCAL MEAN
TEMPERATURE INCREASE °C
EXTREME WEATHER
EVENTS
Climate change threatens
the essentials of life for people
around the world: food, water,
health and security. The impacts
of climate change are not evenly
distributed: the poorest countries
and people will suffer soonest
and to the greatest extent.
CLIMATE CHANGE
WILL HAVE PROFOUND
CONSEQUENCES
FOR PEOPLE
The effects of climate change on food production are already evident in several regions of the world. In recent years, there
have been several periods of rapid food and
cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions. By 2050,
it is predicted that yields of most important
crops will decline in developing countries
due to climate change, exposing an additional 25 million children to malnutrition.
CHILDHOOD
MALNUTRITION
CROP
YIELDS
HUMAN
CASUALITIES
3
EXPOSURE TO INFECTIOUS DISEASE
IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
ESTIMATED ADDITIONAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE AT RISK OF MALARIA IN EASTERN
AFRICA FROM 2020s TO 2080s BOX SHOWS THE UPPER AND LOWER QUARTILES
PROJECTED NET MIGRATION RATE FROM METROPOLITAN AREAS IN NORTH-EAST
BRAZIL UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE BARS SHOW ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR TWO SCENARIOS
Source Caminade et al. (2014) PNAS 111: 3286–3291.
Source Barbieri et al. (2010) Popul. Environ. 31: 344-370.
CASE STUDY 30
CLIMATE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
TO DRIVE MASS MIGRATION OF PEOPLE
0.1
140
2
130
In recent decades, higher temperatures
have resulted in range expansions for key
disease carriers, such as mosquitoes. The
incidence of malaria, dengue and haemorrhagic fever is correlated with temperature,
precipitation and humidity. Overall, improvements in public health are expected to
lead to a decline in infectious diseases, but
climate change will act as an impediment:
by 2050, it is estimated that 200 million
more people will be exposed to malaria as
a result of climate change.
38
120
0
110
L E G E N D
100
L E G E N D
-0.1
90
ADDITIONAL
POPULATION AT
RISK (MILLIONS)
Mean across four
climate models
80
60
2035-2040
-0.4
2045-2050
30
20
max
10
median
0
min
-0.3
50
40
YEARS
2025-2030
-0.2
70
-0.5
NET MIGRATION RATE %
-0.6
2020s
2050s
2080s
Sao Luis Fortalexa
Natal Joao Pessoa Recife
Maceio
Aracaju Salvador Terisna
The impacts of climate change are expected to drive a significant increase in the scale
of human migration and displacement.
It is estimated that between 25 million
and 1 billion people will move by the end
of the century in response to extreme
weather events, drought, sea level rise and
other climate change impacts. In 2008
alone, 20 million people were displaced
by extreme weather events, compared to
4.5 million internally displaced by conflict.
METROPOLITAN AREAS
39
52%
NORTHERN SHOVELER Spatula clypeata WINTERING POPULATIONS AT A SITE IN THE NETHERLANDS
HAVE DECLINED BY 52% SINCE CONSTRUCTION OF BIODIVERSITY-UNFRIENDLY COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE, EMPHASISING THE IMPORTANCE OF STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SAFEGUARDS
PHOTO STEVE SINCLAIR/USFWS
80%
HELMETED HORNBILL Rhinoplax vigil
IS PREDICTED TO DECLINE BY OVER
80% IN 3 GENERATIONS, WITH LAND
CONVERSION TO OIL PALM PLANTATIONS
CONTRIBUTING TO THESE TRENDS
PHOTO MUHAMMAD ALZAHRI
PROJECTED IMPACTS
PROJECTED DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON IBAs IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN WINTER WATERBIRD ABUNDANCE BEFORE AND AFTER CONSTRUCTION OF STORM SURGE BARRIERS
EXCLUDES THE OUTLIER, GREAT CORMORANT PHALCROCORAX CARBO, WHICH INCREASED BY 639%
Source Segan et al. (2015) Divers. Distrib. 21: 1101–1111.
Source Schekkerman et al. (1994) Hydrobiol. 282/283: 509–524.
DIRECT IMPACT
INDIRECT IMPACT
COMBINED IMPACT
L
E
G
E
HIGHER
N
Common Goldeneye Bucephala clangula
Great Crested Grebe Podiceps cristatus
Brent Goose Branta bernicla
Common Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula
Spotted Redshank Tringa erythropus
Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata
Common Greenshank Tringa nebularia
Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica
Red-breasted Merganser Mergus serrator
Eurasian Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus
Eurasian Wigeon Mareca penelope
Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria interpres
Red Knot Calidris canutus
Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola
Common Redshank Tringa totanus
Common Shelduck Tadorna tadorna
Northern Pintail Anas acuta
Dunlin Calidris alpina
Pied Avocet Recurvirostra avosetta
Kentish Plover Charadrius alexandrinus
Common Teal Anas crecca
Northern Shoveler Spatula clypeata
D
HIGHER
LOWER
LOWER
DIRECT
IMPACT
INDIRECT
IMPACT
L
CHISAMBA IBA
Zambia
HIGH INDIRECT,
LOW DIRECT IMPACTS
People will be forced to
respond to climate change,
such as through changes
in where and how crops are
grown, energy is produced
and people live. For example,
southern Africa could lose
more than a third of its maize
crop by 2030, requiring
alternative staples.
Such human responses
will likely affect birds and
other biodiversity more
than the direct effects
of climate change.
THE EFFECTS OF HUMAN
RESPONSES TO CLIMATE
CHANGE WILL LIKELY BE
AT LEAST AS IMPORTANT
AS DIRECT IMPACTS
ON NATURE
LUIA IBA
Angola
HIGH DIRECT,
LOW INDIRECT IMPACTS
3
BIOENERGY EXPANSION
WITHOUT CAREFUL PLANNING
WILL DRIVE BIODIVERSITY LOSS
-40
-20
0
20
40
D
60
80
100
120
80
% SPECIES
THREAT TYPE
INCREASED
ABUNDANCE
DECREASED
ABUNDANCE
NORTHERN SHOVELER
Spatula clypeata
Source Meller et al. (2015) Glob. Change Biol. Bioenergy 7: 741–751.
Source Danielsen et al. (2009) Conserv. Biol. 23: 348–358 and sources therein.
CASE STUDY 34
90
96%
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
37%
20
10
10
0
0
15.6%
23.7%
3.7%
16.4%
79.0%
68.0%
L E G E N D
76.3%
PALM OIL
BOTH HABITATS
30
20
CLIMATE
17.3%
NATURAL FOREST
% SPECIES
INDONESIA
THAILAND
MALAYSIA
2
CONVERTING NATURAL HABITATS
TO OIL PALM FOR BIOENERGY IS BAD
FOR BIRDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
100
90
L E G E N D
Habitat loss caused by the construction of
storm surge barriers and dams in the Oosterschelde/Krammer-Volkerak delta region
of the Netherlands has driven declines in
waterbird populations. While some birds
appear to have benefited, more than twice
as many have undergone local population
declines. The effects of climate change will
lead to the construction of more such infrastructure projects, which if poorly planned
could result in substantial wildlife impacts.
COMMON GOLDENEYE
Bucephala clangula
PERCENTAGE OF BIRD SPECIES FOUND IN NATURAL FORESTS, PALM OIL PLANTATIONS,
OR BOTH HABITATS, FROM STUDIES IN THREE SOUTH-EAST ASIAN COUNTRIES
100
0
POORLY PLANNED RESPONSES
TO COASTAL FLOODING HAVE
NEGATIVELY IMPACTED WATERBIRDS
IN THE NETHERLANDS
PERCENTAGE OF EUROPEAN SPECIES PROJECTED TO BE IMPACTED INDIRECTLY
THROUGH BIOENERGY EXPANSION OR DIRECTLY BY CLIMATE CHANGE BY 2050
BIOENERGY
42
N
CASE STUDY 33
The set of IBAs projected to suffer the
greatest direct impacts of climate change
and highest rates of turnover of species for
which they were identified to conserve do
not entirely match the set of IBAs likely to
be indirectly impacted by human responses to climate change. Setting priorities for
adaptation interventions therefore needs
to account for likely human responses.
The direct effect of climate change on the
range sizes of European birds is expected
to have an influence of greater magnitude
by 2050 than the effect of land-use change
for biofuel production. However, bioenergy
is predicted to have a negative impact on
a larger proportion of species (96%) compared with climate change alone (37%).
E
% CHANGE IN ABUNDANCE
BETWEEN PREAND POST-COASTAL
CONSTRUCTION
0
CONSIDERING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON HUMAN COMMUNITIES
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERS ASSESSMENTS
OF THE VULNERABILITY OF IBAs
CASE STUDY 32
G
SPECIES
-60
CASE STUDY 31
E
COUNTRY
Oil palm is one of the fastest expanding
crops in equatorial regions, owing to its
widespread use in food production and
bioenergy. It is estimated that palm oil plantations take 75-93 years to compensate for
the carbon lost through forest conversion,
or nearly 700 years if peatland is converted. Avian species richness is vastly reduced
in these plantations compared with forest,
highlighting the negative biodiversity impacts when biofuels replace natural forests.
43
SOLUTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND NATURE
Despite the significant impacts of climate change, there is hope. BirdLife International is
at the forefront of efforts to implement nature-based solutions that safeguard healthy
ecosystems to benefit both nature and people. Across the globe, BirdLife Partners are:
x Promoting clean energy solutions for people and nature.
x Protecting and restoring carbon-rich ecosystems.
x Conserving, managing, and better connecting key sites to help species adapt.
CHILDREN IN THE KAZIHA MOUNTAINS OF BURUNDI
PHOTO EDWARD PERRY
x Implementing ecosystem-based adaptation to build people’s resilience.
x Using birds to engage people with nature, understand climate change and take action.
CASE STUDY 35
CASE STUDY 37
3
PROMOTING SMART, CLEAN
ENERGY SOLUTIONS HELPS
AVOID NEGATIVE IMPACTS
STRATEGICALLY DEPLOYING
POWER LINES MINIMISES
BIRD ELECTROCUTIONS
The BirdLife Partnership works at the local,
national and international levels to promote
ambitious responses. BirdLife supports renewable energy development and works
to ensure it does not negatively affect species and ecosystems. For example, BirdLife
has been working with the Convention on
Migratory Species to adopt guidelines to
help avoid any negative repercussions
from renewable energy infrastructure on
migratory species.
Scaling up renewable energy requires
new infrastructure such as power lines.
Depending on design and routing, these
can create electrocution and collision risks.
BirdLife International is helping prevent
bird electrocutions, working with medium
voltage grid operators to replace or insulate dangerous infrastructure. With the
Renewables Grid Initiative, BirdLife works
with high voltage grid operators in Europe
to reduce bird collisions and other impacts.
PINK-FOOTED GEESE Anser brachyrhynchus, GERMANY © NICK UPTON/RSPB-IMAGES.COM
COMMON CRANE Grus grus, GERMANY © NICK UPTON/RSPB-IMAGES.COM
The impact of climate change on people and nature demands a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy.
Increasing energy efficiency, reducing consumption, and replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy are
essential to reduce carbon emissions. But new energy sources present new challenges. Without careful
planning, large-scale deployment of renewable energy can lead to unintended environmental impacts.
Policymakers, planning authorities, investors and developers are being urged to ensure
that renewable energy development does not have unacceptable consequences on birds and nature.
MINIMISING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS REQUIRES
SMART MITIGATION EFFORTS INCLUDING CLEAN ENERGY SOLUTIONS
FOR PEOPLE AND NATURE
CASE STUDY 38
CASE STUDY 36
BEARDED VULTURE Gypaetus barbatus © C. V. ROOYEN
3
2
PROMOTING BIRD-FRIENDLY ENERGY
INFRASTRUCTURE ON THE RED SEA
FLYWAY BENEFITS MIGRATORY BIRDS
46
2
BirdLife International Partners are working
across the Red Sea flyway – the migratory
route for over 1.5 million soaring birds – to
ensure that energy infrastructure is sustainable for wildlife. BirdLife’s Sensitivity
Map Tool is informing decisions on where
to build energy infrastructure to minimise
its impact on soaring birds, which are particularly sensitive to wind turbines, pylons
and electricity cables.
PROMOTING ENVIRONMENTAL
SAFEGUARDS FOR BIOENERGY HELPS
AVOID DETRIMENTAL OUTCOMES
The EU’s policies to tackle climate change
have promoted the use of biofuels in
transport. These biofuels, largely agricultural crops, contribute to direct and indirect
clearing of natural habitats and, as a result,
a perverse increase in carbon emissions.
BirdLife Europe’s persistent advocacy has
contributed to the approval of new EU
legislation in 2015 – the first of its kind in
the world – that limits the share of foodbased biofuels.
RAPESEED FIELDS © JEAN-MARIE HULLOT/CC
47
CASE STUDY 42
CASE STUDY 39
RESTORING FORESTS IN THE
PHILIPPINES’ SIERRA MADRE PROVIDES
BENEFITS FOR PEOPLE AND NATURE
3
RESTORING PEATLANDS IN BELARUS
REDUCES CARBON EMISSIONS
AND SAVES WATERBIRDS
Peatlands cover only 2-3% of the world’s
land surface, but contain carbon stocks
equivalent to 100 years of current fossil
fuel emissions. In Belarus, BirdLife Partners are restoring 51,000 hectares of degraded peatland, turning the land from a
net source of carbon into a net sink and
creating important habitats for threatened
bird species.
The Haribon Foundation (BirdLife in the
Philippines) is working with local government, the environment ministry and
indigenous people to protect and restore
40,000 hectares of forest in the Sierra Madre. This initiative reduces carbon
emissions while protecting wildlife such
as the Critically Endangered Philippine Eagle Pithecophaga jefferyi and safeguarding a water catchment for the national
capital, Manila.
DAKUDAUSKAJE PEATLAND, GRODNO REGION, WEST BELARUS © ANNETT THIELE
A NEW APPROACH TO FOREST
CONSERVATION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPED IN INDONESIA
Burung Indonesia (BirdLife in Indonesia)
and the RSPB (BirdLife in the UK) are restoring 99,000 hectares of lowland Sumatran rainforest, protecting carbon stocks
and habitat for species such as the Critically
Endangered Sumatran Tiger Panthera tigris
sumatrae. ‘Ecological restoration concessions’ have been recognised as a forest
management tool by the Indonesian government, with 2.5 million hectares of forest
now earmarked for restoration.
48
CASE STUDY 41
3
JERNANG TREE CULTIVATION © DESRI ERWIN
SAN RAFAEL FOREST © GUYRA PARAGUAY
SEEDLING NURSERY, GOLA FOREST, SIERRA LEONE
© GUY SHORROCK/RSPB-IMAGES.COM
PHILIPPINE EAGLE Pithecophaga jefferyi © SHAUM/CC
2
IMPLEMENTING REDD+ IN SIERRA
LEONE REDUCES EMISSIONS WHILE
BENEFITTING BIRDS AND PEOPLE
The Conservation Society of Sierra Leone
(BirdLife in Sierra Leone) is working with the
RSPB (BirdLife in the UK) to reduce logging
and agriculture pressures on the forests of
Gola Rainforest National Park, which supports over 330 bird species. This REDD+
initiative will avoid emissions of over 5 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in the first 10
years and provide livelihood support to 122
communities. Revenues from carbon credit
sales will support park management.
Healthy ecosystems remove carbon from the atmosphere and store it in biomass. If this biomass is degraded
or destroyed, the carbon is released into the atmosphere, causing climate change. Protection and restoration
of natural ecosystems provides an immediate and cost-effective climate change mitigation strategy that also
benefits people and nature. The BirdLife Partnership is conserving and restoring carbon-rich ecosystems
in 119 countries across the world.
PROTECTING AND RESTORING CARBON-RICH ECOSYSTEMS
COMBATS CLIMATE CHANGE
AND BENEFITS PEOPLE AND NATURE
CASE STUDY 40
CASE STUDY 43
6
CASE STUDY 44
5
2
CONSERVING FORESTS IN PARAGUAY
BENEFITS CLIMATE, WILDLIFE
AND LOCAL COMMUNITIES
RESTORING MANGROVES IN MEXICO
ENHANCES CARBON SEQUESTRATION
AND BENEFITS THE COMMUNITY
Guyra Paraguay (BirdLife in Paraguay)
is combining carbon financing and payments for ecosystem services to cut emissions by more than 120,000 tonnes of
CO2-equivalent by 2030, as well as protecting 69,300 hectares of forest from agriculture in the San Rafael IBA. Communities are
encouraged to practise sustainable farming,
which enhances yields on cultivated land,
thus increasing income and reducing the incentive for further forest clearance.
Mangroves are among the largest natural
reservoirs of carbon in the tropics, but are
highly threatened by habitat destruction
and over-exploitation. Mangroves in the
Chiapas-Oaxaca coastal region of Mexico
are being restored by Pronatura (BirdLife in
Mexico) and partners to ensure the effective storage of carbon, secure benefits for
local communities, and improve the habitat for shorebirds such as Least Sandpiper
Calidris minutilla.
PRONATURA SUR’S MANGROVE AND CLIMATE CHANGE CORRIDOR INITIATIVE © JESUS GARCÍA RODRÍGUEZ/RICOH
49
122
THE REDD+ INITIATIVE AT GOLA RAINFOREST,
SIERRA LEONE, IS SUPPORTING
THE LIVELIHOODS OF 122 COMMUNITIES
PHOTO GUY SHORROCK/RSPB-IMAGES.COM
30%
THE EURASIAN GOLDEN PLOVER Pluvialis apricaria POPULATION IN THE SOUTH PENNINES OF THE UK
IS PROJECTED TO DECLINE BY 30% BY 2050-2080. BUT BLOCKING DRAINAGE DITCHES TO INCREASE
SOIL MOISTURE AND BOOST THE INSECTS THEY FEED ON WILL HELP THE BIRDS SURVIVE
PHOTO SERGEY RYZHKOV/ADOBE STOCK
1 DEFINE
PLANNING
PURPOSE AND
OBJECTIVES
REVISIT PLANNING
AS NEEDED
7 TRACK
ACTION
EFFECTIVENESS
AND ECOLOGICAL
RESPONSE
CASE STUDY 45
3
2 ASSESS
CLIMATE
IMPACTS AND
VULNERABILITIES
ADJUST
ACTIONS
AS NEEDED
CONSERVATION PLANNING
IS INCORPORATING CLIMATE CHANGE
REASSESS
VULNERABILITY
AS NEEDED
CASE STUDY 47
CLIMATE-SMART
CONSERVATION CYCLE
MOBILISING CITIZEN SCIENTISTS
IS AIDING CLIMATE PLANNING
IN WASHINGTON, USA
3 REVIEW/
REVISE
CONSERVATION
GOALS AND
OBJECTIVES
6 IMPLEMENT
PRIORITY
ADAPTATION
ACTIONS
Climate-smart conservation is a dynamic
process to address explicitly climate impacts in conservation responses. Flexibility
is key, with both management actions and
conservation goals evolving with time. It
is important to consider how species may
move across landscapes and regions and
plan for both current and future needs.
5 EVALUATE
AND PRIORITIZE
ADAPTATION
ACTIONS
Source Adapted from Stein et al. (2014) Climate-smart
conservation: putting adaptation principles into practise.
National Wildlife Federation.
SONGBIRD SURVEYORS © HEATHER FINDLAY
Conservation planning is increasingly integrating climate change concerns and will need to be flexible
and dynamic in the future. While existing conservation goals usually remain valid, specific objectives
are being redefined. Enhanced monitoring is essential to detect climate-induced changes in bird populations
and to track the effectiveness of adaptation interventions.
SPATIAL PRIORITISATION APPROACHES FOR CONSERVING NORTH AMERICAN BIRDS, USING TREE SWALLOW Tachycineta
bicolor AS AN EXAMPLE, BASED ON MODELLED CLIMATIC SUITABILITY AND ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY
STATUS OF MONITORING IN CENTRAL ASIAN IBAs
THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
Source Schuetz et al. (2015) Ecol. Appl. 25:1819–1831.
Source BirdLife International data (2015).
PREPARE FOR THE WORST
L
E
G
E
N
D
CASE STUDY 46
2
CASE STUDY 48
1
GO WITH WHAT YOU KNOW
HEDGE YOUR BETS
0
PRIORITY
RANKING
52
Citizen scientists in eastern Washington
are monitoring sagebrush songbirds in
a long term programme coordinated by
the National Audubon Society (BirdLife in
the USA). The program utilises data covering 1 million acres of habitat to inform
large-scale conservation action and climate planning.
4 IDENTIFY
POSSIBLE
ADAPTATION
OPTIONS
CONSERVATION
IS BECOMING CLIMATE SMART
HOPE FOR THE BEST
2
CLIMATE CHANGE IS BEING
INCORPORATED INTO
CONSERVATION SPATIAL PLANNING
A recent study by National Audubon Society (BirdLife in USA) developed three
approaches to setting spatial priorities depending on assumptions about species’
ability to track shifts in climate or adapt to
changing conditions. It also developed a
‘bet-hedging’ prioritization drawing on all
three to facilitate efficient conservation investment despite substantial uncertainty.
3
MONITORING IS EVEN MORE
IMPORTANT UNDER
CLIMATE CHANGE
L
E
G
E
N
D
MONITORED
Long-term monitoring will be necessary
to assess if and when projected impacts
on species are realised and to assess the
effectiveness of adaptation interventions.
Currently 61% of IBAs in Central Asia that
are threatened with climate change are being monitored, and expansion to cover the
remainder is a priority.
NOT MONITORED
NOT YET THREATENED
BY CLIMATE CHANGE
THREATS
NOT YET ASSESSED
53
PROBABILITY OF COLONISATION OF FISCHER'S SPARROW-LARK Eremopterix leucopareia
SHOWN ON TOP OF PROTECTED AREA BOUNDARIES AND DEGREE OF INCREASE IN CLIMATIC SUITABILITY
NUMBER OF CALLING MALE BITTERNS IN THE UK
UNDER DIFFERENT LEVELS OF FLOOD RISK FROM RISING SEA LEVELS
Source Beale et al. (2013) Ecol. Lett. 16: 1061–1068.
Source Data provided by M. Ausden (RSPB).
160
L
E
G
E
N
L
D
1
G
E
N
D
LOWER RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING
(newly created reedbeds)
120
CASE STUDY 51
2
3
PROTECTED AREAS ARE HELPING
SPECIES TO PERSIST WITHIN EXISTING
RANGES AND TO COLONISE NEW AREAS
CREATING NEW WETLAND HABITAT
HELPS BITTERNS ADAPT IN THE UK
100
LOWER RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING
(existing reedbeds)
80
HIGHER RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING
0
INCREASE IN CLIMATIC
SUITABILITY
NUMBER OF CALLING MALES
60
COLONISATION
PROBABILITY
0.25
20
PRESENCE STATUS
INFERRED
2015
2013
2014
2011
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2005
2006
2003
2004
2001
2002
1999
2000
1997
1998
1995
0
1990
OBSERVED
1993
0.5
1994
0.75
1991
1
YEAR
40
1996
Under climate change, Tanzanian savannah birds are disproportionally colonising
climatically suitable zones with a higher
proportion of protected habitat. This suggests that current protected area networks are critical in helping species adapt
to climate change. The same findings have
been found in the UK, where protection
also reduced the rate of extinction at species’ trailing range margins.
1992
CASE STUDY 49
E
140
Core breeding sites for Eurasian Bittern
Botaurus stellaris in the UK are situated
along the Suffolk coast, but are at increasing threat from rising sea levels and more
frequent storm surges. Losses of even a
small proportion of birds in these core sites
would substantially impact national trends.
Efforts to restore existing reed beds and
create new habitat at sites less susceptible
to sea-water flooding have led to dramatic
population increases, safeguarding the future of this iconic species in the UK.
Effectively conserving key sites such as IBAs through formal protected areas or community-managed reserves
remains an urgent priority to ensure resilience under climate change, although the management of such sites
is changing to accommodate shifting ecological communities. New IBAs are being identified, and habitat in key
sites is being conserved, restored or created to provide suitable conditions for the future.
CONSERVING KEY SITES IS CRITICAL
FOR ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE
LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST IMPORTANCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE FOR IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL NEW IBAs IN AFRICA
DARKER COLOURS REPRESENT SITES OF GREATER VALUE
BLOCKING PEATLAND DRAINAGE CHANNELS
INCREASES CRANEFLY ABUNDANCE FOR EURASIAN GOLDEN PLOVERS
Source Hole et al. (2011) Conserv. Biol. 25: 305–315.
Source Carroll et al. (2011) Glob. Change Biol. 17: 2991–3001.
7
L
E
G
E
N
D
6
CASE STUDY 52
3
MEAN CRANEFLY ABUNDANCE
ACROSS SITES
5
CASE STUDY 50
2
IDENTIFYING NEW SITES
INCREASES THE RESILIENCE
OF THE IBA NETWORK
In sub-Saharan Africa, priority locations
have been defined for identifying potential
new IBAs to increase the robustness of the
network under climate change. These take
into account: the degree to which priority
species are supported by existing IBAs; future range shifts; and remoteness of locations from existing IBAs.
54
MANAGING THE HYDROLOGY OF
PEATLAND SITES COULD HELP GOLDEN
PLOVERS ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Peatlands in the UK uplands are sensitive
to summer drought, which reduces cranefly (Tipulidae) abundance, a key prey for
Eurasian Golden Plovers Pluvialis apricaria,
which are projected to decline by 30% in
the South Pennines by 2050-2080. The
simple act of blocking drainage ditches
increases soil moisture and cranefly abundance, with likely benefits for the plover
population, and for ecosystem services
including carbon storage and water quality.
4
3
2
1
0
BLOCKED
UNBLOCKED
55
65
OUT OF A TOTAL OF 152 CALLING MALE EURASIAN BITTERNS
Botaurus stellaris IN THE UK IN 2015, 65 WERE RECORDED
IN NEWLY CREATED REEDBEDS IN AREAS THAT ARE LESS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE
PHOTO BEN ANDREW/RSPB-IMAGES.COM
69%
AFRICAN PENGUIN Spheniscus demersus
POPULATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA’S WESTERN
CAPE DECLINED BY 69% DURING 2001-2009,
PARTLY OWING TO CLIMATE-INDUCED SHIFT
IN FISH STOCKS. THIS HAS LED TO PLANS TO
HELP ESTABLISH NEW COLONIES FARTHER EAST
PHOTO URYADNIKOV SERGEY/ADOBE STOCK
CHANGE IN ABUNDANCE OF DECLINING FARMLAND BIRD SPECIES
IN RELATION TO THE PERCENT AREA OF UNCROPPED LAND ON SITES ACROSS THE UK
Source Henderson et al. (2012) J. Appl. Ecol. 49: 883–891.
400
350
CASE STUDY 53
3
300
ENHANCING HABITAT CORRIDORS
ALLOWS SPECIES TO MOVE
AMONG KEY SITES
The benefit of habitat corridors varies
among bird species and ecosystems, with
habitat-generalists benefiting more from
this approach than specialists. Networks
of connected linear habitat, such as riparian forest corridors in the Brazilian Amazon, benefit woodland bird species if the
corridors retain quality habitat. Studies for
tropical forest songbirds suggest that corridors are most effective if at least half of the
landscape remains forested.
CASE STUDY 55
2
250
MANAGING THE MATRIX OF SUITABLE
HABITAT BETWEEN KEY SITES
WILL AID MOVEMENT OF SPECIES
200
L
E
G
E
N
D
150
% CHANGE IN ABUNDANCE
100
% AREA UNCROPPED
RELATIVE TO
0-3% CATEGORY
50
0
0–3
AMAZON © NEIL PALMER/CIAT
3–5
5 – 7.5
7.5 – 10
> 10
Uncropped agricultural land has been
shown to benefit declining farmland birds
in the UK: farms containing only 3-5% of
uncropped land support much lower densities than farms with more than 10% of
uncropped land. Increased persistence of
populations outside of protected areas will
be important in facilitating climate-induced
range expansion.
With climate change forcing many species to shift their distributions, improving connectivity among key sites
and policy responses to make the wider countryside more biodiversity-friendly is helping species to cope with
climate change. However, targeted interventions will be needed for some species, such as captive breeding and,
potentially, assisted colonization.
CONNECTING AND ENHANCING HEALTHY HABITATS
IN THE WIDER LANDSCAPE IS HELPING SPECIES TO ADAPT
LOCATION OF CURRENT AFRICAN PENGUIN COLONIES IN SOUTH AFRICA,
AND POTENTIAL SITES FOR CREATION OF NEW COLONIES THROUGH ASSISTED COLONISATION
Source C. Hagen (BirdLife South Africa).
CASE STUDY 56
3
EASTERN CAPE
CASE STUDY 54
2
CREATING STEPPING STONE HABITAT
PATCHES MAY AID RANGE EXPANSION
A WILDLIFE BRIDGE IN THE NETHERLANDS © JOOP VAN HOUDT/RIJKSWATERSTAAT
58
Vogelbescherming Nederland (BirdLife in
the Netherlands) is working with the Dutch
government on a national strategy – the
Dutch Ecological Network – to link wetlands and other habitats together across
the country. This will facilitate the movement of species and increase ecological
resilience, which will become essential as
climate change shifts species ranges.
ASSISTING COLONISATION
WILL HELP AFRICAN PENGUINS
IMPACTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
WESTERN CAPE
CAPE TOWN
African Penguin Spheniscus demersus in
South Africa occurs in two populations separated by 600 km. Climate-induced shifts
in fish stocks are partly responsible for dramatic declines in numbers in western colonies. Plans are underway to create a new
mainland colony between the two populations and increase the species’ resilience to
further impacts. This will involve protection
from predators, nest boxes, deployment of
decoys, and translocation of juveniles.
PORT ELIZABETH
L
E
G
E
N
D
WEST COAST COLONIES
ALGOA BAY (EASTERN) COLONIES
POTENTIAL NEW COLONY SITES
59
CASE STUDY 59
CASE STUDY 57
3
3
CLIMATE RESILIENT ALTITUDINAL
GRADIENTS (CRAGS) PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR ACTION IN EAST AFRICA
CONSERVING MANGROVES
IN THE NEOTROPICS PROVIDES
A NATURAL SEA DEFENCE
In 2010, 13 BirdLife Partners formed the
Neotropical Mangrove Alliance to conserve
and restore mangroves in the Caribbean.
Mangroves provide a natural protective
shield against strong waves and extreme
storms, which are becoming more severe
under climate change. They are important
carbon stores, and support fishes, molluscs and crabs used by birds and local
communities.
Intact habitats on altitudinal gradients will
become increasingly important under climate change because they help control
erosion, regulate water flow and allow species to move upslope. In the African Great
Lakes region, BirdLife Partners are conserving the most vulnerable sites across
a landscape with an altitudinal gradient of
over 1,000 m. Planned interventions will
enhance the resilience of local communities to climate change and benefit wildlife.
MANGROVE NURSERY AT TELESCOPE, GRENADA © KADIR VAN LOHUIZEN/NOOR
LAKE KIVU, WESTERN RWANDA © ADAM JONES/CC
Ecosystem-based approaches can form an important part of human adaptation and disaster risk reduction
strategies. Maintaining and enhancing mangroves, watershed vegetation and other natural infrastructure
can buffer people from extreme weather events, rising sea levels and changing rainfall patterns. At the same
time, these efforts ensure that habitats continue to support bird and other wildlife populations and provide
ecosystem services such as food, water filtration and crop pollination in a changing climate.
ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION
DELIVERS BENEFITS FOR PEOPLE AND NATURE
MARSH RESTORATION IN SAN PABLO BAY
Source Adapted from Sonoma Creek Marsh Enhancement Project Initial Study/Environmental Assessment (2014).
United States, San Francisco Bay Regional Water Quality Control Board & US Fish & Wildlife Service.
CASE STUDY 58
2
REALIGNING COASTS
HELPS PROTECT COMMUNITIES
MEDMERRY © PAUL BOWIE
60
Storm surges and sea level rise threaten
coastal defences. RSPB (BirdLife in the UK)
is partnering with government and engineers to move defences inland and create
coastal wetlands as a buffer. At Medmerry,
new wetland is reducing flood risk to 348
homes, while at Wallasea Island, 670 hectares of newly created wetlands is providing flood defence, benefits to fisheries and
habitat for waterbirds.
CASE STUDY 60
3
EXTREME HIGH TIDE
RESTORING TIDAL MARSHES
IN SAN PABLO BAY, USA,
BENEFITS PEOPLE AND BIRDS
Tidal marsh restoration by Audubon California (BirdLife in California) in the San
Pablo Bay IBA is reducing storm surge
risk for neighbouring landowners, while
providing important habitat for threatened
waterbirds such as the Black Rail Laterallus jamaicensis.
RESTORED
MARSHLAND HABITAT
EXISTING MARSH SURFACE
PERIMETER LEVEE
61
670 ha
IN WALLASEA ISLAND, 670 HECTARES OF WETLAND CREATED BY A UNIQUE
PARTNERSHIP OF CONSERVATIONISTS AND ENGINEERS IS PROVIDING
WATERBIRD HABITAT AND DEFENCE FROM COASTAL FLOODING
PHOTO BAM NUTTALL LTD
CASE STUDY 63
CASE STUDY 61
CONSERVING THE HIGH ANDEAN
WETLANDS SUPPORTS
BIRDS AND PEOPLE
ENHANCING THE RESILIENCE
OF SAHEL HABITATS PROVIDES
LONG-TERM BENEFITS
Unsustainable land management, combined with an increasingly inhospitable climate, is putting pressure on communities
and migratory birds in the Sahel. BirdLife
Partners are conserving and restoring wetland and dryland habitats across 13 IBAs
and supporting communities to adopt more
sustainable land-use practices that are
building their resilience to climate change.
Ecosystem-based adaptation will often be the first line of defence against the impacts of climate change
for the most vulnerable people. Poor communities tend to be seen as helpless victims of climate change.
But while they are often hit hardest, in many instances they are also the innovators and instigators
of practical nature-based solutions that are accessible, cost-effective and locally appropriate.
CASE STUDY 64
CASE STUDY 62
3
2
PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
INCREASES RESILIENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN CONE GRASSLANDS
BIRDLIFE PARTNERS IN SOUTH AMERICA ARE INTRODUCING SUSTAINABLE BEEF PRODUCTION TO THE PAMPAS © A. PARERA
The wetlands of the high Andes provide
fresh water for more than 100 million people, support important wildlife, and are a
significant carbon sink. Unregulated and
unsustainable development threatens
these habitats and their capacity to support people and wildlife. BirdLife Partners
in Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador work with
local communities to ensure conservation
and sustainable use of these wetlands.
CENTRAL ANDEAN PUNA © JONATHAN STACEY
PLANTING SEEDLINGS, BURKINA FASO © MICHIEL VAN DEN BERGH/ASC
NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS LINK WELL-BEING,
LIVELIHOODS AND THE NATURAL WORLD
64
2
3
In 2006, BirdLife Partners in Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay formed the
Southern Cone Grasslands Alliance to promote sustainable cattle grazing practices.
Working with cattle ranchers to promote
more responsible production, the alliance
is enhancing the integrity and resilience of
the grasslands and ensuring ongoing carbon sequestration and storage.
BUILDING RESILIENT MONTANE
FOREST LANDSCAPES IN UGANDA
IMPROVES LIVELIHOODS
NatureUganda (BirdLife in Uganda) is
helping communities at the Echuya Forest Reserve adapt to climate change while
enhancing forest resilience. Activities include sustainable organic agriculture and
agro-forestry to diversify community livelihoods, regulate water flow, and soil erosion,
and reduce pressure on the forest. Adaptation plans and regulations have been developed to help to ensure that management of
the Echuya landscape is climate-smart.
ECHUYA FOREST EDGE © CHRIS MAGIN
65
CASE STUDY 65
CASE STUDY 67
3
CONNECTING BIRDS AND PEOPLE
HELPS MOBILISE
CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION
The National Audubon Society (BirdLife in
the USA) is mobilizing climate change action across North America by encouraging
a network of volunteers (‘climate ambassadors’) to use their passion for birds to inspire others. It is through talking to friends,
family and colleagues about the impacts of
climate change on our environment that a
growing number of individuals are creating
a demand for solutions.
2
EXCHANGING KNOWLEDGE
AND LESSONS IN EAST AFRICA
HELPS COMMUNITIES COPE
WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
A CLIMATE AMBASSADOR FROM AUDUBON NORTH CAROLINA SHOWS OFF A WOOD THRUSH Hylocichla mustelina
DURING A TALK ON CLIMATE CHANGE © JUSTIN COOK
ADAPTATION KNOWLEDGE-SHARING AMONG KENYAN COMMUNITIES © EDWARD PERRY
In Kenya, 18 communities from across the
nation meet annually to exchange experiences and learn new strategies for coping
with climate change at IBAs. Through collective learning and training, the network
has developed a climate mitigation and
adaptation strategy for addressing climate change that they are implementing
across Kenya.
Everyone contributes to climate change, and everyone is impacted by it. Raising awareness of the
consequences of climate change and potential solutions can help mobilise society to take action and ensure
that political decisions benefit both people and nature. It is essential that communities are able to participate
actively in decision-making, and that decisions at all levels are informed by local experience. This engagement
ensures appropriate and sustainable solutions that take account of local needs and vulnerabilities.
SOCIETY IS BEING MOBILISED
TO TAKE CLIMATE ACTION
UNCERTAINTIES IN EMISSIONS
TRAJECTORIES AND
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
CASE STUDY 66
2
EMPOWERING BURUNDI’S SERUKUBEZE
COMMUNITY TO TAKE CLIMATE ACTION
PLANNING ADAPTATION ACTIONS IN RUYIGI, BURUNDI © ALBERT SCHENK
66
The Association Burundaise for the protection of Nature (BirdLife in Burundi) works
with the Serukubeze community to help
them understand their vulnerability to climate change and identify adaptation actions. Through a participatory process, the
community is being empowered to engage
with their local government and integrate
ecosystem-based adaptation strategies
into the municipality development plan. This
will ensure that local development enhances the resilience of people and ecosystems.
POOR UNDERSTANDING OF THE
IMPACTS OF EXTREME EVENTS
CASE STUDY 68
3
THERE ARE STILL KNOWLEDGE GAPS,
AND UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN
THE PROJECTED IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON NATURE AND PEOPLE
While we know that climate change is already affecting nature and people across
the globe, and that the impacts will likely
get worse, uncertainty remains surrounding the details of these projections. Plugging adaptation knowledge gaps is essential for scaling up effective adaptation
responses worldwide
FEW PROJECTIONS FOR SPECIES
IN LATIN AMERICA, THE PACIFIC,
AND FOR SEABIRDS
LITTLE INFORMATION ON BIRDS'
DISPERSAL ABILITY
FEW DATA ON IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PEOPLE
GAPS IN INFORMATION FOR INTEGRATING
ADAPTATION INTO PLANNING
AND ACROSS SECTORS
SOCIOECONOMIC DATA GAPS FOR
EVALUATING IMPACTS AND EFFECTIVENESS
OF NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS
67
HELP SPECIES ADAPT
KEY RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR POLICYMAKERS
This synthesis shows that climate change is not simply a concern for the future: There is already considerable evidence of
negative impacts from recent climate change. As the global
average temperature continues to rise, climate change will
threaten many species, disrupt ecological communities, and
pose significant challenges to nature and people. However, we
already know many of the solutions that are needed, and we
are implementing these across the world. Policymakers have
a critical role to play in scaling up these solutions and must act
now in order to safeguard the future of the Earth's ecosystems
upon which we all depend. Here we highlight the key policy responses required.
4
Effectively manage protected areas, extending the network to
cover Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas and other large areas of intact habitat, improving connectivity and managing the
wider landscape more sustainably.
5
Tackle existing non-climate threats to populations to increase
their resilience to climate change, addressing unsustainable
agriculture, logging, fisheries and hunting, and tackling invasive
alien species.
6
Implement targeted actions for those species requiring
specific measures to help them adapt.
7
Establish effective monitoring to detect climate change impacts and assess the effectiveness of adaptation solutions.
INVEST IN NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS
KEEP FOSSIL FUELS IN THE GROUND
1
Cut greenhouse gas emissions by reducing consumption, increasing energy efficiency and switching from fossil fuels to
renewable energy.
2
Reform fossil fuel subsidies and other perverse incentives that
undermine efforts to address global climate change and are an
inefficient use of scarce resources.
3
Promote sustainable renewable energy deployment by establishing robust environmental regulatory frameworks and
applying strategic planning, sensitivity mapping and other safeguards to minimise negative impacts on nature and people.
8
Scale-up investment in the conservation and restoration
of natural ecosystems, which can provide an immediate,
cost-effective and significant contribution to emission reductions while building the resilience of nature and people.
9
Develop and implement local and national adaptation plans
that integrate conservation, restoration and sustainable use of
ecosystems to reduce disaster risk and help people adapt to
climate change, as well as safeguards to avoid maladaptation.
10
Catalyse and support multi-stakeholder collaboration between
communities, civil society organisations, businesses and government, working across sectors to deliver solutions to the interlinked challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss.
GREAT GREY OWL Strix nebulosa
PHOTO ONDREJ PROSICKY/SHUTTERSTOCK
68
69
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71
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