Analyst Presentation of Results
Transcription
Analyst Presentation of Results
Final Results Presentation for 52 weeks ended 28 December 2014 Operating Model Massmart is a high-volume, low-cost, omni-channel distributor of Food, Liquor, General Merchandise and Home Improvement in sub-Saharan Africa + + + + + Africa’s second largest retailer / distributor Market leader in General Merchandise and Home Improvement Market leader in Liquor and Wholesale Food 3rd largest in Liquor & Food (retail & wholesale) Fastest growing Retail Food proposition Game in 2014 + Highest sales densities in SA retail at R190m/store + Lowest Operating Costs as % of sales in SA retail at 16.2% + Great retail and wholesale brands and formats Makro, Game, DionWired, Builders, Jumbo + Deep, wide penetration across LSM 3-10 and Retail, Wholesale & Commercial customers + Owned by Walmart Final Results Presentation February 2015 2 Retail Leadership team Team has combined total of 54 years’ experience in Massmart operations Robin Wright (59) Neville Dunn (46) Doug Jones (42) Llewellyn Walters (51) BCom, CA (SA) Bcom CA(SA) BCom, BAcc, CA (SA) BCom, PGDA CA (SA) BA (LLB) 17 years with Massmart 13 years with Massmart 10 years with Massmart 8 years with Massmart 6 years with Massmart Founder CCW Stores Chief Executive Masscash Group Food Executive Chief Executive Massdiscounters Financial Manager The Hub Financial Director Masscash Operations Director Masscash Chief Executive Masscash Wholesale Group Chief Executive Officer UPD Chief Executive Masswarehouse Chief Executive Cambridge Food Operations Financial Manager SAB Ltd Softdrinks Division Finance Director Makro Commercial Director Makro Chief Executive Masswarehouse Divisional Managing Director Super Group, African Operations Chief Executive Massbuild Final Results Presentation February 2015 Kevin Vyvyan-Day (50) 3 Consumer environment Tough but an improved second-half + Constrained discretionary spending with focus on exceptional value amongst low- & middle-income customers + Steady demand amongst higher-income customers in Builders and Makro + Wholesale affected by commodities’ deflation and dis-inflation across basket 12 % Growth year-on-year + Low economic growth, soft job creation, unsettled labour market, high utility costs, weak currency, and electricity disruptions. Low consumer confidence 10 Nominal Sales 8 6 4 Real Sales 2 0 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 -2 + Disruption in electricity supply impacts negatively on foot traffic in shopping centers, benefits our stand-alone stores? Final Results Presentation February 2015 4 Performance highlights Scale, Growth and Innovation + Game SA had a good H2, growing profit. Game Africa declined from weaker economies, new stores and currency devaluations (-R40m) + Game Retail Food growth continues, is now R3.2 billion. Positive impact on General Merchandise sales + Great performances from Makro, Builders Warehouse and Builders Express as they leverage skills, scale, SAP and supply chain. Profit acceleration in H2 + Margin recovery in Masscash Wholesale through focus on direct distribution and larger stores + Market research confirms high consumer brand affiliation with Cambridge Food. Great trading performance + Great performance by new Builders Warehouse, Maputo + Successful launch of Makro online in General Merchandise and Liquor Final Results Presentation February 2015 5 Performance highlights at a glance Great sales growth, good margin management and decent cost control in tough environment Rm 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) % of sales 52 weeks December 2013 (Pro forma) % of sales 52 week % growth 52 week Comparable % sales growth Estimated % sales inflation Sales 78,173.2 70,790.7 10.4 7.5 4.8 Massdiscounters 17,955.2 16,294.2 10.2 4.8 3.1 Masswarehouse 21,554.8 19,271.7 11.8 10.7 5.5 Massbuild Masscash Trading profit before interest and tax 10,822.8 27,840.4 9,441.3 25,783.5 14.6 8.0 9.1 6.3 5.9 4.8 Massdiscounters Masswarehouse Massbuild Masscash 2,061.7 2.6 1,994.4 2.8 3.4 180.7 1.0 326.9 2.0 (44.7) 1,044.3 4.8 939.5 4.9 11.2 537.6 299.1 5.0 1.1 467.6 260.4 5.0 1.0 15.0 14.9 Final Results Presentation February 2015 6 Did You Know? + 98 private label brands generate sales of R7.2 billion across the Group + Our retail brands have the highest spontaneous awareness for household appliances, electronics, outdoor & patio, home improvement + Load-shedding products comprise 1.5% of Builders Warehouse sales and grew 36% (generators, solar, gas, emergency lighting) + Game sells 1/3rd of all TVs sold in South Africa + Makro online had one million active visitors in 30 days to mid-December + Makro Liquor sold 108m cans / bottles beer, 43m cans cider and 5m bottles whiskey Final Results Presentation February 2015 7 Financial Performance + Three divisions had a strong performance with Game SA showing improved trading in the second half of the year + Total sales growth increased to 10.4% (Dec 2013: 7.5% 52 weeks) and comparable sales increased by 7.5% (Dec 2013: 3.8%) + Gross margin increased to 18.63% (Dec 2013: 18.44% 52 weeks) + Comparable expense growth of 7.1% is lower than comparable sales growth of 7.5% + Foreign exchange loss of R49.8m (Dec 2013: R67.8 m gain) + Operating profit before foreign exchange movements and interest increased by 4.3% (Dec 2013: -0.3% 52 weeks) Final Results Presentation February 2015 8 Sales Real comparable volume growth 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) 52 weeks December 2013 (Pro forma) 52 week % growth 52 week Comparable % sales growth Estimated % sales inflation Total 78,173.2 70,790.7 10.4 7.5 4.8 Massdiscounters 17,955.2 16,294.2 10.2 4.8 3.1 Masswarehouse 21,554.8 19,271.7 11.8 10.7 5.5 Massbuild Masscash 10,822.8 27,840.4 9,441.3 25,783.5 14.6 8.0 9.1 6.3 5.9 4.8 Rm + Rest of Africa businesses’ sales growth: Sales in ZAR grew by 16.2% + Higher inflation in General Merchandise and Home Improvement + Wholesale business is experiencing deflation in some Food commodities in 2015 8.1% 91.9% S.A. Sales Final Results Presentation February 2015 Rest of Africa Sales 9 Operating profit before forex and interest Rbn 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2013 2.5 3.0 3.5 + Operating profit before forex of R1,933.7m Sales-related gross margin + A strong trading performance in Makro, Massbuild and Masscash Retail; offset by: + Greater Food contribution across the Group + A softer margin performance in Massdiscounters attributable to the overstock position Price-and-mix-related gross margin Other income + Prior year included insurance proceeds + Total increase of 14.0% / Comparable increase of 8.5% + Increase in staff (Full-Time Equivalents) of 8.3% to +/- 41,000 FTE’s Employment costs + + + + Occupancy costs Total increase of 5.3% / Comparable increase of 3.6% 3.9% increase of net new trading space to a total of 1,539,295m² Electricity, rates and taxes increased by approximately 15% Property acquisitions resulting in a reduction of occupancy costs + Depreciation growth of 15.8% is greater than sales growth of 10.4% + The opening of new stores, DC’s and the acquisition of key properties is driving the increase + Rate of increase should reduce significantly from 2015 Depreciation, Amortisation and Impairment of Assets + Total increase of 12.6% / Comparable increase of 7.8% + Credit card commission increased by 15.5% - increased usage Other operating costs + Operating profit before forex of R2,015.9 million + Increase of 4.3% 2014 Final Results Presentation February 2015 10 EBITDA Rm Operating profit before foreign exchange movements and interest Depreciation and amortisation Impairment of assets EBITDA before foreign exchange movements Final Results Presentation February 2015 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) 52 weeks December 2013 (Pro forma) 52 week % growth 2,015.9 1,933.7 4.3 846.6 731.1 15.8 24.6 41.6 2,887.1 2,706.4 6.7 11 Foreign Exchange Movements 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) 52 weeks December 2013 (Pro forma) (5.7) 82.4 Other (44.1) (14.6) Total (loss)/gain (49.8) 67.8 Massdiscounters + Rand weakened by 12.7% against the USD + Ghanaian New Cedi and the Nigerian Naira devalued against the Rand Final Results Presentation February 2015 12 Inventories and Creditors Inventories (Rm) Inventory Days Trade Creditors (Rm) Creditors’ Days December 2014 (Reviewed) December 2013 (Audited) 11,228.8 10,115.5 64 64 14,841.5 13,702.4 75 76 + Good inventory management. Growth of 11.0% is marginally ahead of sales growth + New stores + Massdiscounters, while improving, remains overstocked + Trade Creditors increased by 8.3% + Creditors’ Days slightly tighter Final Results Presentation February 2015 13 Capital Expansion 2 500 4.0% 2 000 3.0% 1 500 2.5% Rm Capex as a % of sales 3.5% 1 000 2.0% 500 1.5% 1.0% 0 Dec 2010 + + Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Investment to maintain operations Investment to expand operations Property acquisitions Businesses acquired Total capex as a % of sales Total capex as a % of sales excl business and property acq's Total Capex as a % of sales: 2.7% (Dec 2013: 3.3%) Total Capex excl. business and property acq’s as a % of sales: 1.6% (Dec 2013: 1.8%) Final Results Presentation February 2015 14 Capital Expansion Sales split between owned and leased stores 31% Final Results Presentation February 2015 27% 13% 15 Capital expansion Annualised benefit of property acquisitions over the last 2 years Saving on lease payments: Less finance costs: R109m Less depreciation costs: R36m Net savings: Final Results Presentation February 2015 R210m R65m 16 Cash Flow Statement 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) 53 weeks December 2013 (Audited) Operating cash before working capital movements 2,983.4 2,984.0 Working capital movements (295.1) 752.6 Cash generated by operations 2,688.3 3,736.6 (1,028.7) (987.9) (857.4) (780.2) Free cash flow 802.2 1,968.5 Dividends paid (914.0) (913.4) Investment to expand operations and other net investing activities (1,289.1) (1,446.9) Cash outflow before financing activities (1,400.9) (391.8) Rm Net interest and tax paid Net investment to maintain operations + The effect of week 53 in the prior and current year is approximately R500m in working capital Final Results Presentation February 2015 17 Forecast stores: Dec 2014 – Dec 2016 Dec 2014 Forecast new stores Jan 2015 – Dec 2016 Dec 2016 Number of stores 392 63 455 Massdiscounters 153 19 172 Masswarehouse 19 1 20 100 120 20 23 120 143 Massbuild Masscash % increase 1,539,295 192,893 1,732,188 12.5 Massdiscounters 506,188 60,340 566,528 11.9 Masswarehouse 195,794 12,000 207,794 6.1 Massbuild Masscash 436,538 400,775 57,500 63,053 494,038 463,828 13.2 15.7 Trading space (m2) + + + + Massdiscounters: Game SA – 8; DionWired – 4; and Game Africa - 7 (Kenya 1, Mozambique 1, Nigeria 3 and Zambia 2) Masswarehouse: Makro - 1 Massbuild: BWH SA - 4; BEX – 4; BTD – 1; BSS - 8; and BW Africa - 3 (Mozambique 1 and Zambia 2) Masscash: Retail – 18; Wholesale SA – 2; and Wholesale Africa - 3 (Mozambique 2 and Zambia 1) Forecast for 2015: + 33 new stores resulting in an additional 6.3% net new trading space Final Results Presentation February 2015 18 Strategic Priorities + Improve Profitability + Grow Builders and Retail Food in South Africa + Grow into Africa + Grow Online Final Results Presentation February 2015 19 Improve Profitability To improve Group profitability from a focus on Sales, Operating Margin and Expenses + Increase comparable stores’ sales + New customer groups – commercial, online, exports + New formats, format renewal + Increase Private Label penetration: currently 9.8% of sales, and highest in Builders at 18.7% + Reduce costs in value-chain + Increase property ownership: estimated future annual benefit of R65m + Reduce capital cost of new stores + But always prepared to invest profit into price, to drive sales / productivity loop Final Results Presentation February 2015 20 Growing Game In 2009 began transforming Game from traditional GM discounter … Subsequent Challenges Response: + Demand & fulfillment software (JDA) poorly configured & operated + Re-installed JDA in 2013/14 + Inadequate store segmentation impacted merchandise range: Rosebank to Ulundi + Supply chain & RDC skills + Initially difficult to attract suitable Food skills + Revised store segmentation and merchandise range + Poor demand data history impacts Fresh wastage + Hiring great skills. Suppliers’ support + Complexity of Fresh supply chain + Improving demand data history + Distracted the core General Merchandise team + Group Fresh supply chain + SAP point-of-sale Final Results Presentation February 2015 21 Growing Game Current Successes: Sales Growth: Game vs SA GM retailers + Now a less cyclical retail format offering wide range of GM & selected Food range + Game store footprint increased 7.3% CAGR to 130 stores + Food of R3.2bn is now almost 18% of total sales + Food now in 58 SA stores and in SA comparable stores sales +19% & GM sales in those stores outgrowing nonFood stores + Most GM market shares steady or improved 3 month rolling year-on-year growth + Since 2008 Game sales have grown 10% CAGR to R18bn 20% StatsSA Game Gen Merch* 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: Massmart, StatsSA. StatsSA figures for retailers in Household furniture, Appliances & Equipment *Game Gen Merch = Total Game SA sales in General Merchandise, excl. cellular and hardware Game SA had a good Q4. Key business inputs improving gradually. Another six months to rebalance inventory levels. Hopeful of a better SA performance in 2015 Final Results Presentation February 2015 22 Grow Retail Food in SA Build a Retail Food proposition on the General Merchandise and Wholesale Food platforms. To reduce cyclicality, counter potential decline in Wholesale, complement our existing offerings and enter the under-penetrated lower-income arena Current situation + Retail Food sales from Rnil to R14.7bn since 2008 + Trading through 132 stores in Makro, Game and Cambridge Food + Positive impact in Game and Makro, with increased traffic and new customers + Own private label in all three formats – Cambridge, Marketside, M-brand + Implemented full offering including dry groceries, bakery, butchery, fresh produce & prepared meals + Developing dedicated supply chain for Fresh, Meat & Bakery – either owned or 3rd party + Competitive pricing enabled through General Merchandise margins & lower operating expenses + Disrupted market equilibrium as suggested by competitor reaction, specifically aggressive enforcement of lease exclusivities and keen pricing / promotions Final Results Presentation February 2015 23 Grow Retail Food in SA Key priorities Inhibitors + Complete Game Food roll-out and grow national footprint of Cambridge Food brand + Improve product offering & store operating efficiencies + Develop and leverage specialist Groupowned assets (e.g. Fruitspot) to service Fresh, Bakery and Butchery proposition + Grow Food private labels Final Results Presentation February 2015 + Lease exclusivities, dedicated supply & logistics, cold chain infrastructure and specialist skills 24 Grow Builders’ formats in SA Current Situation Inhibitors + Market leaders in SA with Builders Warehouse & Builders Express. Few direct format competitors + Pleased with early success of Superstore + Enabled by great skills & management, SAP and national DC + Under-penetrated is some key metropolitan & urban areas + Real estate, economic / housing cycle Key priorities + Aggressively roll-out Warehouse & Express stores + Grow Builders Superstore (8 stores in next two years) Final Results Presentation February 2015 25 Grow into Africa To replicate South African market leadership and operating strengths in underserviced, high potential markets in sub-Saharan Africa, to increase geographic market exposure for growth Current situation + 33 stores in 11 sub-Saharan non-South African countries generating sales of R6.4bn representing 8.1% of total sales + Average store sales of R192m p.a., almost x2 higher than that achieved by grocery retail peers + Game – first wave city expansion into 10 non-SA countries has resulted in good General Merchandise market shares and an emerging Retail Food proposition + Builders Warehouse – second wave city expansion into two countries has resulted in excellent sales and margin growth + Masscash Wholesale – over 10 years have opened / acquired stores in four countries. Sales of R2.7bn + Continued learning from Valumart, Nigeria, launched in 2012. Have expanded the pilot to validate logistics and distribution requirements Final Results Presentation February 2015 26 Grow into Africa Key priorities Inhibitors + Grow into selected cities & metros. Seven Game stores planned for 2015-16 + Securing land title, volatile currencies, unpredictable customs & duty environments + Grow Builders Warehouse presence in SADC region. Three planned for 2015-16 + Initiate a third wave through Cash & Carry or Hybrid model, with Dry Groceries & limited GM. Focus on major cities & towns in SADC. Three planned for 2015-16 + Total African space growth 2015-2016 of approximately 45% 3 1 NIGERIA GHANA 1 UGANDA TANZANIA 1 2 1 MALAWI ZAMBIA 5 BOTSWANA MOZAMBIQUE NAMIBIA11 4 1 LESOTHO SOUTH AFRICA SWAZILAND 3 359 Final Results Presentation February 2015 27 Grow online To build a profitable omni-channel presence that is synergistic with Massmart category market leadership and needs of customer base Current situation + DionWired online launched in 2012. Essential offering for hi-tech customer. Good online retail learning experience for the Group. High basket size, now 2.3% of sales + Makro online launched April (General Merchandise) and October 2014 (Liquor). High basket size, high proportion of click-&-collect, predominantly retail. New and existing customers + Trialing Makro convenience locker access, for later roll-out to SASOL service station forecourts + Shield online system and call-centre integrated with, and accessible to, Cash & Carry B2B customer base + Access to skills & experience at ASDA online and walmart.com Final Results Presentation February 2015 28 Grow online Key priorities Inhibitors + Invest in appropriate technology – master data, digital catalogue, inventory accuracy, extended assortments, fulfillment + Expand Shield B2B online to broader Cash & Carry customer base + Technology – cost & effectiveness + Back-office interface + Consumer confidence in online payment systems + Develop & launch Builders Warehouse online + Mobile applications Final Results Presentation February 2015 29 Prospects + + + + For the 8 weeks to 22 February 2015, total sales increased by 10.0% Comparable sales increased by 7.9% Continuation of sales trends seen in Q4 of 2014 South African consumer environment seems mildly positive, but fragile. Need to watch oil price, taxes and interest rates + Mixed African economic prospects in short-term Any reference to future financial performance included in this document has not been reviewed or reported on by the Group’s external auditors. The auditor’s report does not necessarily report on all of the information contained in this announcement/financial results. Shareholders are therefore advised that in order to obtain a full understanding of the nature of the auditor’s engagement they should obtain a copy of the auditor’s report together with the accompanying financial information from the issuer’s registered office. Final Results Presentation February 2015 30 Dedicated to adding value For further details, go to massmart.co.za/results2014 Additional Information + + + + + + + + Reviewed Consolidated Income Statement for 52 Weeks ended 28 December 2014 Tax Rate Reconciliation Headline Earnings Reconciliation Store Portfolio Store Portfolio (including location of stores) Forecast Stores (including location of stores) Capex per category Number of shares Final Results Presentation February 2015 32 Reviewed Consolidated Income Statement for the 52 Weeks ended 28 December 2014 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) 52 weeks December 2013 (Pro forma) 52 week % growth Revenue 78,319.0 71,035.3 10.3 Sales 78,173.2 70,790.7 10.4 Cost of sales (63,610.8) (57,733.8) (10.2) Gross Profit 14,562.4 13,056.9 11.5 145.8 244.6 (40.4) (846.6) (731.1) (15.8) (24.6) (41.6) 40.9 Employment costs (6,109.0) (5,357.5) (14.0) Occupancy costs (2,678.8) (2,544.5) (5.3) Other operating costs (3,033.3) (2,693.1) (12.6) 2,015.9 1,933.7 4.3 (49.8) 67.8 Operating profit before interest 1,966.1 2,001.5 (1.8) Net finance costs (345.3) (249.8) (38.2) Profit before taxation 1,620.8 1,751.7 (7.5) Taxation (483.4) (512.6) 5.7 Profit for the year 1,137.4 1,239.1 (8.2) Rm Other income Depreciation and amortisation Impairment of assets Operating profit before foreign exchange movements and interest Foreign exchange (loss) / gain Final Results Presentation February 2015 33 Tax Rate Reconciliation 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) % Standard tax rate 52 weeks December2013 (Pro forma) 28.0 28.0 2.8 (2.0) (0.4) (0.3) 2.0 1.4 Other – including foreign tax adjustments (2.6) 2.2 Group tax rate 29.8 29.3 Non-taxable income and disallowed expenses Allowances on lease premiums and improvements Assessed loss not utilised Final Results Presentation February 2015 34 Headline Earnings Reconciliation 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) Rm 52 weeks December 2013 (Pro forma) Attributable earnings 1,079.8 1,180.0 Impairment of assets 24.6 41.6 1.4 11.9 - 1.8 (0.3) (3.8) 1,105.5 1,231.5 35.9 (48.8) 1,141.4 1,182.7 Loss on disposal of tangible and intangible assets Loss on disposal of business Tax effects on adjustments Headline earnings Foreign exchange loss/(gain) (taxed) Headline earnings before foreign exchange (taxed) Final Results Presentation February 2015 52 week % growth (10.2) (3.5) 35 Store Portfolio December 2013 Opened Closed December 2014 Number of stores 376 28 -12 392 Massdiscounters 143 13 -3 153 Masswarehouse 19 - - 19 92 122 12 3 -4 -5 100 120 Massbuild Masscash Massdiscounters: + Opened 11 Game stores (one in Nigeria and one in Namibia) and two DionWired stores + Closed two Game stores and one DionWired store Massbuild: + Opened three Builders Warehouse stores, four Builders Express stores, one Builders Trade Depot store and four Superstores + Closed two Builders Warehouse stores and two Builders Express stores Masscash: + Opened three and closed three Retail stores + Closed two Wholesale stores Final Results Presentation February 2015 36 Store Portfolio including location of stores Massdiscounters Masswarehouse Massbuild Masscash Total 143 19 92 122 376 13 - 12 3 28 December 2013 Opened: -3 Closed BWH: 1 Africa store BWH: 2 SA stores BEX: 4 SA stores BTD: 1 SA store BSS: 4 SA stores Game: 2 Africa stores Game: 9 SA stores DionWired: 2 SA stores - Game: 2 SA stores DionWired: 1 SA store December 2014 153 Final Results Presentation February 2015 -4 BWH: 2 SA stores BEX: 2 SA stores 19 100 Retail: 3 SA stores -5 -12 Retail: 3 SA stores Wholesale: 2 SA stores 120 392 37 Forecast stores including location of stores Massdiscounters December 2014 Forecast SA openings 2015: Forecast SA openings 2016: 120 392 6 - 9 12 27 1 6 BWH: 3 BEX: 2 BTD: 1 BSS: 3 1 Wholesale: Mozambique 1 BWH: Zambia 1 163 19 110 133 425 6 1 8 8 23 2 7 Game: 4 DionWired: 2 Makro: 1 172 BWH: 1 BEX: 2 BSS: 5 Retail: 8 - Game: Nigeria 2; and Zambia 1 Final Results Presentation February 2015 Retail: 10 Wholesale: 2 - Game: Kenya 1; Mozambique 1; Nigeria 1; and Zambia 1 December 2016 Total 100 3 Forecast Africa openings 2016: Masscash 19 Game: 4 DionWired: 2 December 2015 Massbuild 153 4 Forecast Africa openings 2015: Masswarehouse 2 BWH: Zambia 1; Mozambique 1 20 120 Wholesale: Zambia 1; Mozambique 1 143 455 38 Capex per category 52 weeks December 2014 (Reviewed) Rm Land and buildings/leasehold improvements 52 weeks December2013 (Pro forma) 948.9 807.2 11.0 34.7 341.7 427.7 Computer hardware 12.6 33.8 Computer software 7.9 1.5 - 1.9 1,322.1 1,306.8 104.8 47.7 92.1 43.4 Fixtures, fittings, plant and equipment 427.2 521.7 Computer hardware 108.1 70.9 Computer software 123.6 96.5 1.6 - 857.4 780.2 Vehicles Fixtures, fittings, plant and equipment Other Investment to expand operations Land and buildings/leasehold improvements Vehicles Other Investment to maintain operations Final Results Presentation February 2015 39 Number of shares ‘000 At December 2013 217,109 Shares issued 9 At December 2014 217,118 Weighted-average at December 2014 216,908 Diluted weighted-average at December 2014 219,055 Final Results Presentation February 2015 40
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