Cutter, S. L., C. T. Emrich, J. T. Mitchell, B. J. Boruff, M. Gall, M. C.
Transcription
Cutter, S. L., C. T. Emrich, J. T. Mitchell, B. J. Boruff, M. Gall, M. C.
The by Susan L. Cutter, Christopher I Emnch, Jerry T. Mitchell Bryan J. Boruff, Melanie Gall, Mathew C. Schmidtiein, Christopher G. Burton, and Ginni Melton Road Home Race, Class, and Recovery from Hurricane Katrina The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active season on record and produced three storms that reached Category Five intensity: Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Hurricane Katrina was not the strongest of the three storms in terms of wind speeds or central pressures, but converging factors —primarily its strength and landfall location along the Gulf Coast—made it the most devastating and costly hurricane in U.S. history. It is estimated that Katrina impacted 90,000 square miles (an area nearly the size of the United Kingdom). displaced more than one million people, killed more than 1,300 people, and exceeded $80 billion in costs.- of December 2005, FEMA had removed nearly 53 million cubic yards of debris and had provided more than $5 billion in financial and housing assistance.^ Still, about 6,600 people remain unaccounted for. and more than 400.000 people are scattered among hotels and shelters all across the country.'' Hurricane Katrina exposed the United States—and in particular the coastal populations of Louisiana and Mississippi—to an unprecedented combination of natural forces and human failures. In the early morning on 29 August 2005, Katrina made landfall as a Category Three storm with sustained winds of 125 mph and storm surges of up to 30 feet.^ Televised images of New Orleans showed a city in complete structural and institutional meltdown. The evacuees in New Orleans suffered from no power, no drinking water, dwindling food supplies, understaffed law enforcement, and delayed search and rescue activities. However, these issues were widespread and not confined to New Orleans. Indeed, they were characteristic for most of the area affected by Hurricane Katrina. a region stretching from southern Louisiana to the Alabama-Florida border. With the immediate needs of clothing, housing, and food now addressed, local, state, and federal agencies face the challenging tasks of recovery and rebuilding. According to the model of recovery proposed by geographer Robert W. Kates and colleagues more than 25 years ago. the time period for each phase is ten times greater than the one before it. In other words, the recovery period for Katrina will last 60 weeks—based on an emergency phase of 6 weeks—and reconstruction could require a stunning 600 weeks: that is, 11.5 years.^ The reconstruction process includes the restoration of social routines and Ihe commencement of economic activities. During this process many of the evacuees will find new homes and new jobs and will enroll their children in schools somewhere other than their home communities.^ Many residents will not return to the affected area even though they have the resources to do so, while others may wish to return bul lack the Hnancial or emotional ability. Either way, demographic change seems inevitable in the Gulf Coast region. The question of who will retum and who will More than 100 day.s later. Congress approved $62 billion in hurricane relief aid."* The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) continues to operate 132 Disaster Recovery Centers in the Gulf Coast area and ha.s more than 14.000 federal personnel in the field. As 10 ENVIRONMENT The Challenge of Recovery permanently relocate elsewhere poses a significant challenge for the recovery of the region. Hurricane Katrina brought national awareness to the deficiencies in preparedness and response to disasters, especially in urban areas. It also highlighted some of the scientific shortcomings in understanding recovery and reconstruction after disasters in large cities. Past research on recovery from disasters found that relocation, especially among the elderly, results in increased physical and mental health maladies.'' Depression and other psychological problems are also prevalent among residents living in a highly disrupted or traumatized community because the individual and community coping mechanisms are no longer available."^ However, long-term large demographic shifts caused by natural disasters are unprecedented in the United States, where only a few studies have actually investigated post-disaster demographics." Lasting demographic changes are documented mostly in the context of biological hazards such as the AIDS epidemic or complex emergencies such as wars.'The limited research on demographic change due to disasters is in sharp contrast to the much larger knowledge base on a population's vulnerability prior to a natural hazard.'' Socially marginalized people (that is. the poor, the uneducated, the young, and the old) are often more vulnerable to and slower to recover from disasters. When compounded by racial, ethnic, or gender disparities, the differential resiliency of social groups—as well as VOLUME 48 NUMBER 2 the communities they inhabit—becomes more obvious. This helps explain the precursor conditions as to why some communities bounce back after disasters. while others do not. It was not Hurricane Katrina's intensity but its impact on a major U.S. urban area and the invisible inner-city poor that turned this humcane into the largest disaster in U.S. history.'"* for example, are greatly exposed to coastal flooding and hurricane activity and arc thus more physically vulnerable to those threats than places inland. "Resistance" refers to the capabilities of people to protect themselves and their communities from environmental threats.''' These capabilities may be economic or social systems that provide opportunities for How do people and places come to be overly exposed, non-resistant, and less resilient? These facets of vulnerability are fashioned by access to resources and social advantage. Populations are not vulnerable simply because ihey are exposed, but rather their plight is "a result of marginality that makes their life a 'permanent emergency.""'^ This marginality was laid bare along the Gulf Coast. For example, one of the main reasons for the lower compliance with evacuation orders among the New Orleans poor was that Katrina struck on 29 August—two days before paychecks and welfare or disability checks would arrive—and they had no money to use for transportation. The mainstream press has portrayed vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, as a newly discovered condition revealed only through the immediate response failures of local, state, and federal officials to Hurricane Katrina. However, social vulnerability is a we! I-developed scientific concept that transcends the expedient descriptors such as race, ethnicity, or poverty. Although it is still not well understood how each social factor works to produce vulnerability or, necessarily, how factors come to work together as amplifiers or attenuators, several concepts have found acceptance within the hazards litDespite ihe distance from shore, storm surges completely inundated this lower income erature. Generally these include access to residential area in BUoxi. Mississippi. Such areas are often more vulnerable to disasters. resources and political power: social capiVulnerability and Resilience: greater security. A hazard-resistant com- tal and social networks; beliefs, culture, The Broader Framework munity in that same bayou may be one and customs; type, construction materials, with elevated homes and a legally man- and age of buildings; frail and physically If vulnerability to hazards is the poten- dated set-back distance from the water's limited individuals; and type and density tial for loss, what increases or decreases edge (a "zoned setback"). Both of these of infrastructure and lifelines.''' that potential in different populations and mitigation measures help reduce the hazDespite the simplistic portrayal in the places? What enables some people to ard impacts. Finally, "resilience" acknowl- mass media (for example, images of poor avoid, resist, or recover from harm while edges the ability (or inability) to cope and African Americans on rooftops contrasted others are less successful.' The concepts subsequently recover from disaster. The with interviews with wealthier whites of exposure, resistance, and resilience are same bayou community, if not diversi- who had escaped the worst of the flooda starting point for our collective under- fied economically, may find its recovery ing), actual maps showing the location of options decimated along with the ecosys- flooding and the percentage of minority standing of vulnerability.''' "Exposure" is the result of physical tems on which it relied heavily for fish. populations in the city of New Orleans location and the character of the environ- Clearly, where and when exposure is high. provided a glimpse into understanding ment in a particular place."" Fishing com- and resistance and resilience are low, the social vulnerability. Prior to Katrina. who munities in low-lying Louisiana bayous, potential for loss increases. might be affected in those physically vul- MARCH 2006 ENVIRONMENT 11 nerable places was largely unreported, and indeed the various social and/or geographical nuances of each particular place—nuances that could alter outcomes significantly^were likewise overlooked by the mass media. along the Gulf Coast, property losses from natural disasters have been escalating since the 1960s. During this time frame at least eleven tropical systems affected the area (see Figure 1 below) and caused the majority of losses from all natural hazards (see Table 1 on page 13). In Louisiana and Mississippi, hurricanes account for about 50 percent of the states' losses from natural hazards, followed by flooding (30 percent) and tornadoes (5 percent) (see Figure 2 on page 14)."" Hurricane Katrina's coastal impact area (see Figure 3 on page 16) is accustomed Vulnerable Places and the Pattern of Losses Hurricanes are particularly devastating when making landfall in highly populated areas. With an increase in population to damages from natural hazards, where more than $3.3 billion in property losses have been recorded in the period from I96U through 2003.-' Some of the most destructive storms in the region were Hurricane Betsy (1965, $1.4 billion). Hurricane Camille (1969, $1.4 billion). Hurricane Andrew (1992, $26.5 billion). Hurricane Opal (1995, $3 billion) and Hurricane Georges (1998, $2.3 billion)—which all rank among the costliest U.S. hurricanes.-- Hurricane Camille ranks eleventh among the most deadly continental U.S. hurricanes with Figure 1. Historic natural disaster losses in selected Gulf Coast counties affected by Hurricane Katrina 1,000 Louisiana Flood and Opal 900 800 700 Georges 600 500 400 Betsy Andrew 300 200 Frederic Camille Hilda 100 Elena Alicia Bertha Carmen • •!• 0 s in p in a> in o CO a> CO en o 0) 0) LO O) O) o o o eg Year NOTE: Losses are in US$ millions adjusted to 2004. SOURCE: S. L. Cutter et al., 2005. 12 ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 48 NUMBER 2 256 ca.sualties.-^ Hurricane Katrina has surpassed Hurricane Camille in fatalities and will eclipse Hurricane Andrew as the eostliest hurricane in U.S. history. In addition to wind damage at landfall, hurricanes are also associated with destruetion from heavy rains, storm surge, flooding, and tornadoes. Just four years prior to Hurricane Camiile, Hurricane Betsy killed 75 people, hut its lasting impression is mainly due to its flood damage to New Orleans.-•' Betsy's storm surge raised the water level of Lake Pontchartrain and overwhelmed flood protec- tion levees, subsequently inundating parts of the city. The storm revealed the eity's precarious situation and its vulnerability to hurricanes—a revelation that was the ultimate impetus for the Flood Control Act of 1965, which funneled money to New Orleans to raise levee heights and upgrade and expand its pumping and canal infrastructure.-^ However, the flood protection adjustments could not withstand the effeets from a stalled frontal system in May 1995. As seen in Figure I, property losses peaked in 1995 when the greater New Orleans area suffered from the worst flooding since Hurricane Betsy. Within 12 hours, 20 inches of rain fell in some areas, flooding thousands of homes, cars, and businesses. The hottom line here is the simple fact that New Orleans is below sea level and sits in a bowl. It is just as vulnerable to the more common, heavy rainfallinduced flooding as it is to a less-frequent hurricane. Thus, despite the levee system designed to protect it. New Orleans continues to be vulnerable to flooding regardless of the cause. Table 1. Top ten counties in terms of iosses from tropical storms and hurricanes, 1960-2003 Alabama (in $ millions) Louisiana (in $ millions) Mississippi (in $ millions) Baldwin 107.3 St. Mary 177.7 Hancock 272.2 Mobile 107.3 St. Martin 176.7 Harrison 272.2 Cboctaw 91.9 Lafayette 176.6 Jackson 272.2 Conecuh 67.1 Vermilion 167.9 Pearl River 271.2 Monroe 67.1 Acadia 166.8 Greene 104.3 Clarke 67.1 Lafourche 162.9 Perry 104.3 Escambia 67.1 Terrebonne 162.9 Wayne 104.3 Wasbington 67.1 St. Tammany 162.6 Stone 104.3 Butler 63.1 Tangipaboa 162.6 Amite 89.3 Covington 63.1 Jefferson 161.3 Pike 89.3 Total losses from burricanes 3,184.0 6,595.6 5,820.3 Total losses from natural hazards 7,985.3 13,343.7 11,818.8 NOTE: Losses are in US$ millions adjusted to 2004. Counties in italics belong to the storm surge and flooded areas during Hurricane Katrina. SOURCE: University at Soutb Carolina Hurricane Researcb Lab, Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Dataset for tbe United States (SHELDUS), http://sheldus.org. MARCH 2OO6 ENVIRONMENT 13 Vulnerable People example, in 1960 Orleans Parish ranked in the top 3 percent of the most socially vulnerable counties nationally, the same Hurricane Katrina exposed the percentilc ranking it had in 2000."^ vulnerability of coastal communities in The differential vulnerability of counvivid detail, and this was most pronounced in New Orleans.-''' Yet the hi.storical ante- ties is best seen when comparing those cedents were there. The impoverishment parishes and counties that were most of the South during the 1960s also extend- affected by Hurricane Katrina's storm ed to the coastal counties, where race, surge and flooding (See Figure 4 on page 18), With one exception (Orleans Parish). class, and gender most influenced the social vulnerability of these communities. all of the affected counties have reduced Over the next 40 years, improvements in their social vulnerability during the past the social condition were seen throughout 40 years, yet there are still significant the nation, and the wide discrepancies in disparities within the region. For examsocial vulnerability at the national level ple, Hancock County, Mississippi, and narrowed. However, this was not true for Baldwin County. Alabama, are the least al! places, especially Orleans Paiish.-^ For socially vuhierable, while St. Bernard, Orleans, and Plaquemine.s Parishes (Louisiana) continue to be among the most socially vulnerable. This is the case on a national level as well: 85 percent of all U.S. counties are less socially vulnerable than these three parishes.-'' What this suggests is that while New Orleans may have seen some incremental improvements in its overall social vulnerability during the past four decades, it is no better off today than it was in 1960. In fact, the dominant indicators of social vulnerability in 1960 in Orleans Parish—race and gender—are the same ones that are driving the production of social vulnerability today. It is evident that the capacity to recover from disaster is partially a function of Figure 2. Causal agent comparison of disaster losses by state, 1960-2003 Mississippi Alabama Tropical storms and hurricanes Tropical storms and hurricanes 49% 41% Misceltaneous 10% Flood Miscellaneous 13% Miscellanous 5% Winter weatber 5% Winter weatber 11% ; Severe / storm Tornado 1% 10% Tornado 3% Tropical storms and hurricanes 49% Louisiana SOURCE: S. L. Outter et al., 2005, 14 ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 48 NUMBER 2 the community's social vulnerability. For example, in the wake of Katrina, the Lower Ninth Ward in Orleans Parish had the largest concentration of "red tagged" homes—houses that were unsafe to enter and in imminent danger of col!ap.se. This same area also experienced a disproportionate amount of the fatalities. In those areas within New Orleans where poverty rates are greater than 41 percent, federally backed loans to homeowners average less than 10 percent of all the loans made as of December 2005.'" Whether social vulnerability (as measured by the Social Vulnerability Index) will continue on the same trajectory during the recovery and reconstruction of the Gulf Coast i.s unclear at present. Given the potential for major demographic changes in communities such as Orleans Parish, where the Lower Ninth Ward will be uninhabitable for years and the population has resettled elsewhere, there may be some reversal of prior trends—but at what social cost? The Forgotten Coastline While most media and national attention has been focused on New Orleans, the devastation along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines poses equally challenging recovery issues. Unlike New Orleans, all five coastal counties in Mississippi and Alabama were affected by storm surge inundation, as high as 30 feet in some locations. While storm surges hit some areas harder than others, it is the underlying variation in social vulnerability that will lead to differential abilities to recover in the long term from this hurricane. To look more closely at the underlying social vuinerahility within the coastal counties, it is necessary to downscale the Social Vulnerability Index to the census tract level. Social vulnerability assessments were undertaken using census tracts within the FEMA-designated counties of Mississippi and Alabama (see Figure 5a on page 19).^' When the modeled stomi The force of Hurricane Katrina's storm surge moved shrimp boats ami other craft miles from where they were moored in Bayou La Batre. Alabama. MARCH 2006 surge inundation is mapped and comhined with the social vulnerability data. a much clearer pattern of vulnerability (and its corollary resiliency) appears (see Figure 5b on page 19).~- The longerterm prospects for two communities are worth noting. The first, Biloxi, Mississippi, was essentially destroyed by the impact of this storm along its coast. Pictures of the beached floating barge casinos—previously moored to the southern extents of the large hotels on the Grand Strand—could be seen on every newscast covering the story. The casinos, businesses, parks, and flora^—along with nearly every multimillion dollar home along U.S. Route 90—was completely destroyed by the storm surge in this area. In East Biloxi, low-income residential areas a few blocks north of Route 90 never made it on the news because of a distinct lack of "wow" factor.'' However, these houses were compromised to such an extent that they were condemned and Ihe residents rendered homeless. The differences between these two neighborhoods are seen not only in the height of the storm surge hut, more poignantly, in terms of their social vulnerability. The more affluent homeowners and casinos along the immediate shoreline have begun reconstruction and renovations and have received insurance settlements. In the largely African American and Asian neighborhoods on the northern side of the railroad tracks, where generations of low-income, blue collar, and service-sector residents lived, the neighborhoods are still clogged with debris. Many are still living in or near the very houses that were condemned, because they have no alternative sheltering options. The second area where differences in social vulnerability can be clearly distinguished is in Bayou La Batre, a small coastal city in southem Mobile County, Alabama. Perhaps first brought to the limelight in the 1994 Him Forrest Gump, Bayou La Batre was hit by more than 30 feet of storm surge from Hurricane ENVIRONMENT 15 Katrina. Just as in the film, this area is characterized hy a high dependence on a single industry: shrimping. The impact of the storm on the area's natural resource base and industry infrastructure was tremendous, with more than half of the town's fleet of shrimp boats affected. Shrimp boats were picked up and deposited literally miles from where they had been moored. Houses along the coast were completely covered by the storm surge, and, like many in New Orleans, residents had to be rescued from rooftops during the actual storm event. section of the damaging physical hazard with the inability to adequately rebound from such hazards that reduces the resiliency of such communities and causes the most hardship for residents. The Long Road to Recovery The road to recovery will be a long one for the Gulf Coast. Communities will not recover equally or within the same time frame, and this variability in the rate and extent of recovery will leave a lasting mark While Biloxi and Bayou La Batre expe- on the Gulf Coast landscape. Communirienced a storm surge similar to places ties like Dauphin Island, Diamondhead, like Diamondhead. Mississippi, and Dau- or New Orleans" Garden District were phin Island, Alabama, the impact of the less vulnerable socially and will rebuild inundation will have a much more last- quickly using a combination of federal ing effect on Biloxi and Bayou La Batre and private (insurance) monies. Additional because of the social vulnerability within resources (federal, state, and private) and the latter two communities. It is the inter- long-term investments will be required to obtain an equitable and socially just recovery for Biloxi, Bayou La Batre, and New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward. These investments include joh creation for less-.skilled individuals, affordable housing, aecess to public transportation, and above all, recognition that diversity—and the social institutions that support it—is key to the successful recovery of the region. But will this happen? And if so, at what cost? One unfortunate outcome of Hurricane Katrina will be the widening gap between the rich and the poor and the near disappearance of the middle class in some partieulariy hard-hit areas such as New Orleans. In many ways, the wealthy residents can afford the risk and, in all likelihood, most will rebuild. The poor, on the other hand, have little choice. Those who were relocated out of the region may be gone permanently. Those who stayed face the prospect of unaffordable housing and Figure 3. Coastal counties experiencing flooding or storm surge inundation during Hurricane Katrina Flood- and surge-impacted coastal counties Alabama Florida Tsnneasae Arkansas \ Mississippi Louisiana Alabama Florida SOURCE: S. L. Cutter et al., 2005. 16 ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 48 NUMBER 2 low-paying service jobs to meet the needs of the wealthy and tourist populations. This is especially true in New Orleans. The primary pre-Katrina employers—the city, universities, and health complexes— are in financial distress, and increasingly, there is an emphasis on tourism as the eeonomic driver of recovery. The overreliance on tourism for their economic base and the decline in the workingmiddle class residents does not bode well for the long-term economic and social sustainability of the metropolitan area. The looming question is, recovery for whom and by whom? The answer will vary considerably between communities and even within communities. Biioxi is illustrative of the challenge. Along the Mississippi coast, there is a consensus among civic leaders that "[IJegalized gaming is going to be what saves us."-^ The casinos that helped reverse the econotnic 2006. A quick change to state law (ostensibly to protect the casino structures and the industry) facilitated a speedy recovery effort as well. Gaming is no longer restricted to water-borne barges and may now take place in structures up to 800 feet from the shore. *'' A larger gaming footprint is likely as casinos build within the new setback but place hotel rooiiis, restaurants, and parking on adjacent land. This process is unfolding not just along the Gulf shore, but along the back waterways, squeezing the real estate (a mix of commercial and residential land uses) in between." These economically depressed neighborhoods behind the casino lights, home to many gaming employees, were similarly devastated. Yet their residents find themselves in an increasingly untenable situation. To recover requires an income that may not return until the casinos are fully operable. But the renewed operation Hurricane Katrina's storm surge hit the westem portion of Dauphin Island, Alabama, at more than 30 feet. Federal funds and insurance claims will help many residents rebuild. decline in the 1990s generated $2.7 billion in revenues during the past year.''' The infusion of well-fmaneed private capital into casino recovery within six weeks of the storm meant that at least three casinos were open for business by New Year's Day MARCH 2006 of the casinos is chipping away at their community, hoth in terms of new property acquisition and the subsequent loss of social capital, as residents are forced to leave. What remains is a newly fortified haven for those who can afford to recreate in an area of high risk but not bear any of the eonsequences. Rehuilding "bigger and better" may be less important than rebuilding smarter. Clearly, more disaster-resistant structures must be part of the mix to withstand future storms. Equally important are the local land uses and zoning that will reduce the exposure of the built environment. While there are many ideas on how the recovery should proceed, we need to be aware of the permanent displacement of many of the region's poor. Any recovery and reconstruction of the Hurricane Katrina impact area should consider mechanisms for the repatriation of these former residents. Hurricane Katrina provides an unprecedented natural experiment for monitoring disaster recovery and reconstruction (see the box t)n page 20). It will necessitate considerable record keeping and oversight to ensure fairness in the prwess and equitable access to recovery resources. At the same time, there is also a critical need to distinguish between short-term and temporary demographic changes such as relocation, and the more significant permanent demographic transition that is bound to affect the eeonomic vitality and livability of this distinctive American region. In addition to these demographic changes, the razing of large sections of New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast inevitably leads to concerns about "Disneyfication," a process whereby new representations of place are artificial and ignorant of history and the people who made the region what it was prior to the storm. It is an absolute certainty that these areas will be rebuilt. What is still unknown at this time is who will be living in these areas after the reeovery is eomplete. For example, the large inllux of Hispanic immigrants drawn by vacated service sector jobs and new reconstruction employment may or may not be temporary. How this short-term workforce situation affects prior residents is unknown at this time. If the previous residents (both voluntary and displaced evacuees, many of them African ENVIRONMENT 17 American) as well as the new immigrants are not considered in long-term recovery efforts of the Gulf Coast, they will most likely not be in the picuire at the end of the long transition back to normalcy. The decline in the rich diversity that once characterized the Gulf Coast region will lead to the loss of the culture, spirit, and the historic sense of place that made it so unique. Susan I.. CuticT is a Camlina Disiitiguishcd Pr(>fL'ssi)r and (lircctorof lliL- Hu/ards Rfseurch Lah al ihi? Univcrsiiy of South Carolina. She may be amiiiLlcd via e-mail al sLUlier@sc.edu. Chrisiophci T. Einirii'h i.s ihc manager 111'ihe Hazards Research L;ib. and his research liK-Uscsiin sotial vulnenibility mea^urcmeni and metrics ai mclropoliian .scales of analysis. Jerry T. Mitchell is ihc direcdir <if ihc Center of EweIIL-MLI: in Geographic Eiducatioii; his research interests include ihe s(x.ial and cultural dimensions of hazards. Brvan J. Bnrult isa National RcsL-arch Council post-ill Id lira I IL'IIDW al ihc PuLillc Disaster Center. His research iniere.sis inicgraic GIS and rcmoicscnsjrig ifchniiUigy in ihf siudy of small island nation vulncrjhiljiy li> hazards. Mclanic (iall and Matliew C. Sihmidllein aa' diitioral students in geography al ihe University of Soiilh Canilinia. TTicir research Jnieresisarc liicuscd iin JmprovcnK'nls in ilie mfiisuremcni ol hazard vuinerahility. Chrisiophcr G. Bunon and Ginni Mellon are pursuing ma.stcr's degrees in geography wilh spcciiili/alion in hazards ill ihc Universiiy of South Carolina. All LiuUiors were parl i>f \hu Held diiUi ciillcclion leam thui surveyed llif Mississippi coaslul cimnlics. Support for Ihi.s resfaruh was provided by ihe Univcrsily of .South Canilina, Ofllce i>l Research and Hcalih Scifnt-cs under the Coastal Resiliency Inlomiation Systems iniiialive for ihe Soulheast (CRLSIS) Call for Rapid Response Research im the Social and hnvironniL-nial Dimensions of Hurricane Kalrina. NOTES 1. National Weather Service, li^onihly Tropical Wfiiihcr Summary, http://www.srh.ntKm.go\/tlata/NHC/ TWSAT (accessed 8 December 20().')l. 2. Federal F.mergency Managetnent Agency (KHMA), By ihf Numbers: Firxl 100 Dtiys—FEMA Recovi-ry Update for Hiirricune Kairinii. http://www .fema.gov/media/archivi;s/indt^xl207()^.shtm (accessed 8 [Jeccmber 2(«)5); iind National Wcalher Service, ibid. .1. K. D. Ktiabh. J. R. Rhi>mc. and D. P. Brown. Tropiicil CycliiiH' Repcrt. Hurriiimc Kalriiiii. 2.'-.fO Aufiiixi 200^. National Hurricane Center. htip://www .nhc.noaj.gov/200^atlan.shimr.' (accessed 21 Dcccmhcr 2(1051. 4. MiiUiin F.mers>eniy Sitpplemenuii AppnipriiUitms til Me ft tmmcdiiilt Needs Arisiiifi fnim the C<inseifiientes (if Hurriiane Knirina. fur the t'isciil Year Ending September JO, 2005. Mid for Other Purposes. KWth Cong.. H.R. 3645, Conjirestiimut ReconI 151: Public t^w 10961 (2 Scpiemhcr 2IK)5K Se<imd Emergency Supplemental Appropriiiliims .\ii fo Mei't Immediiite Needs Arising fri'in the Cimsi'iiiieiues nf HiirriiLUw Kiilriiiii. 2005, ITOih Craig.. H.R. .1676, C,mf;ressitmal Record I5I\ Public Law \W-b2 (K .September H)()5)\ and FEMA, note 2 above. 5. KFiMA, note 2 above. 6. K. Johnson,"(1,644 Are Still Missingaficr Hurricane Katrina; Toil Muy Rise." USA Today. 22 November 2005. Figure 4. Changes in social vuinerability based on scores on the Sociai Vuinerability Index (SoVi) Jackson County, MS Harrison County, MS Hancock County, MS 1960 Percentile Terrebonne Parish, LA 2000 Percentile St. Tammany Parish, LA St. Bernard Parish, LA Plaquemines Parish, LA Orleans Parish, LA Lafourche Parish, LA Jefferson Parish, LA Mobile County, AL Baldwin County, AL 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 SoVI score NOTE: The percentiie of the impacted counties compared to all U.S. counties suggests that the region experiences greater social vulnerability than most U.S. counties and that there is variability within the Katrina-affected region as well. SOURCE: S. L. Cutter et al., 2005. 18 ENVIRONMENT VOLUME 48 NUMBER 2 7. R. W. Kales and D. Pijawka. "From Rubble m Miitmtfit'iit: The Paee i)f Reeonstniclidn." in J. E. Haas, R. W. Kaics, and M. J. Biiwtlen. ed.v, Reioiisirinitoii /•V<//«H7'i,i,'/J;.vav/<TlCambridge. MA: MIT Press, 1977). 1-2:1. 8. K. J. Tiemey. M. K. Lindell. atid R. W. Perry. Ftuini; the Unexpected: Disaster Preparedness and Response in the Uniled Stales (Washinglon. IX": Joseph Henry Press. 20011. ^ .S. .Sanders. S. L. Bt.wie, and Y. i)ias Bi.wie. "Ussons Learned on Knrucd Relixration olOlder Adults: The and Siicial Sitppiin iil I'ublie Housing Residenis," Journal nf GeroiiU)li'f-ical Sticial Wiirk 40, no. 4 (20(13): 23-.15; and J. K. Riud and F. H. Norris. "The Inllui^nee of Relivation on the I'nvironnienial. Social, aiid Psyehiilogical Siress F.;*pcricnccd hy Disii.ster Vietims," Impatl of Hun-jeanf AndrL-w on Health. Mental Health. Environment ittij Behavior 28 (19%): Figure 5. Social vulnerability and storm surge inundation along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts a Poariingtofi Dauphin idand Social vuinerability High Average Low Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tliimana Cornsr r Point Clear . Biloxi Diamondhaai] Gautier Uos» Poml Bayou La Batre Pass ChriBtian PascaQouta Gulf Shores Bay SI LOUIS Dauphin Itiand Social vulnerability in storm surge zones High Average Louisiana Low NOTE: When downscaling the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to the census tract level (a), four areas stand out with the highest levels of social vulnerability in these two states-Mobile, Alabama; Bayou La Batre, Alabama; Biloxi, Mississippi; and Pascagoula, Mississippi. Superimposing the modeled storm surge inundation for Hurricane Katrina (b) on the social vulnerability highlights two areas that may require additional recovery resources given their high levels of social vulnerability and the extent of the storm surge: Biloxi and Bayou La Batre. SOURCE: S. I. Cutter et al., 2005. MARCH 2006 ENVIRONMENT 19 DISASTER RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: RESEARCH QUESTIONS A 600-week reconstruction and recovery period presents an uncommon opportunity to conducl longitudinal research for this "natural experiment." Some questions of interest include: • What mitigation measures are deployed and how do they vary among communities'.' • In the return home, who comes back? Why do they return and where do they go? • What social structures are most effective tor long-term recovery in the region (govemment, nongovernmental organizations, faith-based, or local grass roots)? ill. K Niirris, M. Frit'dniJti. P. Wutsoii. C. Byrne, E. ni;i/, :irid K. Kani;isly. "6i),(HI0 Disaster Viciims Speak. Pan I: An Einpirieat Kcvieworihe Kmpirical Liieralurc, 19SI-2(H)I." rsychiatryb5 (2(H)2l: 207-.W; F. Norris, M. f-riedmLin. ami P. Waisim, •WI.CXM) Disaster Vietims Speak. Pan II:,Summary and Implieaiionsol the Disaster Menial Hcallh Research," P.-iyclmitryfi5(2002): 24061); and V. Nt>rris, P,-iychii.wcial i'lmseijuences of Major tlurrUmies and Floods. h(lp://www.nepisd.va.gi)v/ liipies/iiisaslcr_hand(>ui_pdls/KFHKCTS_hurrieanes_ Niirris.pdf. (aetessed 12 Deeember, 2005). 11. Haas, Kuies, and Bowden. note 7 above; J. D. Wri^hl, P. H. Rossi, S. R. Wrighi and E. Weber-Burdin. After the Clean-Up: tjing-Ranf^e Effects of Natural Di,wj,v/f*-.vlBL-verly Hills; Sage, iy7y);H.P. Friesenia,J. Caporaso, O. (joldstein, R. Lineberry, and R. MeCleary. Aftermath: Communities after Natural t)i.\as!er\ I Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. 1479); S. K. Smilb and C. MeCarlhy. 'TX'inographie EITeeis ot' Natural Ha/.ards: A Case Study ol Hurrieanc Andrew." Demosraphy 33 (1996): 2fiS-7S; W. G. Peaeoek. B. H. M.irrow, and H. Gladwin, eds.. Hurricane Andrew: Ethnicitv, (lender mid the SocinUif-y 'if Disasters ([jindon: Roulledge, !'W7); A. R. Pcbley, "Demography and ibe Envirnnnienl." Demofiraphy 3.1. n.i. 4 I ly'JSl: 377-89; and L. J. Vu)e and T. J. Campanclla, eds.. The Resilieni Ciiy: How Modem Cities Recover from Disaster (Oxlbrd: Oxlbrd Universiiy Press. 2(K)5). 12. JoinI tinitcd Nations Programme on IIIV/AIDS lUNAIDS). 2004 Report -in the Ghbal HIV/AIDS Epidemic: 4th Global Report., UNAIDS/f)4.16H (Geneva. 2(X)4); and C.T. Dahlman, •'Geographies of Geni)cide and Kihnie Cloaiising: Tbe Lessons ol' Bosnia-Her/egovma." in C (•lint ed.. The Geography of War tmd Peace: From Death Camps to Diplomats (Onlord, LI.K : Oxliird liniversity Pre.ss. 2004), I74-<J7. 13. S. L. Cutler, B. J. Bi.rulT and W. L. Shirley, '"Soeial Vulnerability to Environmental Ha/ards." Social Science Quarterly U. nu. 1 (2(XI3): 242-61; l^he Hein/ Center, Human Links lo Cottstal Disasters (Washingtim. W : The H. J()bn Hcin/ III Ccnler lor Seienee, Htiinomics and Ibe Hnvirdnmcnt. 2(M)2). 57-114; and B. E. M o m / and G. A. Tobin, '"Snowbirds and Senior 20 ENVIRONMENT " Who stayed behind (never left)? Why did they stay and in which areas was this common? • Which industries remain, restructure, or close? How does this transform the economic base of the region? • How are places external to the impacted region affected by displaced peoples? • Who will be the "new" poor? If demographic change displaces them, who will fill the gap? • What is the mix of sustainable environmental practices and socially just developtnent that would create a more livable future for the Gulf Coast? Living l)eveli>pments: An Analysis of Vulnerability AsstK.'iated wilh HtirriLane Charley," Quick Response Research Report 177 (2(K)5), hitp;//www.eolorado.edu/ ba/.iirds/(|r/qrl77/qrl77.btml (aceessed 12 December 200.5 (. 14. S. L. Cutter. -Tlie Geography of Soeial Vulnerability: Race, Class, and Catastropbc." in Social Science Research Ctiuncil, Understanding Kalrina: Perspectives from the Social Sciences. http://uridersianJiiigkatriria .ssrc.org/Cuttcr/ (accessed 20 Detemhcr 2fM)5). 15. K. Hewitt. Regions of Risk (Ksse>L, U.K.: Longman, 19971; and S. L. Cutter, '•The Seienee of Vulnerability and ihe Vulnerability of Seienee," Annals of ihe AssiK iaiioit of Amerii an Cei'^raphers 93, no. I (2003): 1-12. 16. 1. Bunon, R. W. Kates, and G. K White, The Environment as Hazard <2nd Edition) (New York: GuilIbrd, 1W3); antl M. Pelling, The Vulnerability of (Hies (London: Earthscan, 2003). 17. P. Blaikie, T. Cannon,, 1. Davis, and B. Wisncr, At Risk (London: Roulledge, 1994). IS. G. Bankiiil, ''The Hisloriial (ieography of Disaster: "Vulnerability" antl 'Linral Knowledge' in Westem Discourse," in G. BankolT. G. Krerks, and D. Hillmrst, eds.. Mapping Vuinerahility (lAm<ioiv. Karthsfan, 2(M)4), 25-36. Quote is lakeii from page 30. 19. Cutter, Borutf, and Shirley, note 13 above, page 245. 20. Figures are for the twelve counties that experienced storm surge and Hoinling and arc derived Trom ihe Spatial Ha/.ards Events and Losses Database for the Uniled States, http://sheldus.org (accessed 20 Deeember 2(H)5). 21. Ibid. The severe storm portion of 30 pcreenl in Louisiana is largely dtie to the 1995 Louisiana IliMxJing eaused by a frontal system. The data source SHELDUS underreiHirts Hood damage in Ljiuisiana because the 199.5 event is elassified as a severe slorm/thunderstonu event instead. 22. J. D- Jarrell. M. Maylleld, H. N. Rappaport and C. W. Landsea. The Deadliesi, Costliest, ami Most Intense United States Hurricanes from 1900 lo 2000. NO A A Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-1 (Miami, FL, 2(M)1), http://www.aomLnoaa.gov/hrd/Laniiseii/ deadly/(aeeessed 19 Deeember 200.5). 23. Ibid. 24. Ibid. Although it was only a Category Three hurricane. Hurricane Betsy was the llrst stonn to top $1 hillion (current tloliarsj. 2.5. J. J. Westerink and R. A. Luettich, "'The Creeping Slorm," Civil Kngitieerini; Magti:ine. June 21K)3, hltp://www.pubs.asce.org/eLMnline/ceonline03/0603 leal .html (accessed 19 Deeember 2005). 26. Cutter, note 14 above. 27. A. \i. Welis. '"Gt>od Neighbors? Distanee. Resistance, and Desegregation in Metropolitan New Orleans."' Urban Education 39. no. 4 (2004): 408-427. 28. S. L Cutler und C. T. Rmrieh, "'Moral Hazard. Social Catastrophe: The Changing Faee of Vulnerability along the Hurricane Coasts." Special Volume, Sbelter from the Storin: Repairing the National Emergency Managemeni System after Hurricane Katrina, Annals of rhi' American Aiademv of Political and Social Science an (2(N)(.): forthcoming. 29. Ihid. .10. A. Nossiter, ""Demolition of Thousands of Houses is Set lo Begin," The New York Times. 17 December 2005; L. Eaton and R. Nixon. ""Federal t^ans m Homeowners along Gulf Liig," The New York Times. 15 Deeember 2005; and S. fX'wanand J. Robert.^,'"tjiuisiana's fJcadly Storm Took Both tbe Strong and the Helpless," The New York Times. IK Deeember 2(M)5. 31. Tbese followed the methodology irom Culter, Boruff and Shirley, note 13 above. The Social Vulnerability Index is one of the few sialisiieal attempts to condense the multitude of vulnerability determinants (race, class, and gender) into a single measure, lliis single mettic allows lor a eomparative and longitudinal assessment of s<x:iai vulnerability among U.S. eounlies, the original unit of analysis. 32. Predieled storm surge area.s for Mississippi, using the late.st Sea, Lake and Overland Surges Irom llurrieanes (SLOSH) model run on 27 August 2{K)5 were appraised in relation to tbe eouniies and eensus tracks of these eoastai areas. Tbe nuKlel output was obtained from the National Hurricane Center, flp:// ltp.nhe.noaa.gov/pub/users/ (accessed 12 September 2(X)5). 33. A. t-ee and G. Laeour. "'Hundreds Feared Dead; Fast Biloxi Hit Hardest," The Sun Herald (BiloxiI, 30 August 2(N)S; CBS. '"Katrina Vietims: Where's FEMA'.'" CBS News. 6 September 2005, h(tp://www .cbsncws.eom/sloric.s/200.5/09/06/4Khours/main«21S87 ..shtml (aeeessed 20 I>eeember 2005); Oxfam America, '"More Inelusive Help Needed in Future Emergencies, Oxiam Tells Congress,"' http://www.oxiamameriea.org/ newsandpuhlication.s/news_updates/news_update.200512-06.8958562428 (accessed 20 Deeember 2005); and D. Weir, "'Everything's Broken," Saltm. 13 December 2005, http://www.salon.c(mi/news/leature/2(K)5/l2/l3/ biloxi/ (accessed 20 December 2005). .34. Biloxi, Mississippi, Mayor A. J. Holloway, quoled in G. Rivliii, "Bright Spot on Gulf as Casinos Rush to Rebuild," The New York Times, 14 Deeember 2(X)5. 35. Ibid. 36. Assoc-ialed Press. "Mississippi Governor Signs Bill to Rebuild Gull' Casinos on t-and," The New York times. I8 0eiober2005. 37. T Wiicmon.. "Silver Slipper Gets OKi Palaee Reopening on Dee. 30 also Approved hy Commission," The Sun Herald (Biloxi), 16 Dec. 2(XI.5, hltp://www .sunhera.ld.eom/ml(i/sunheraJd/134!9755.btm (aeeessed 4 January 2(H)6). VOLUME 48 NUMBER 2