Fall...into the season BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP®
Transcription
Fall...into the season BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP®
FALL 2014 Fall...into the season BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP ® It’s that time of year again, can you feel it? It’s fall… one of the most cherished seasons of them all. While I love the new beginnings of spring and the dog days of summer, fall is my favorite. From my faded flannel shirt to a hot cup of coffee on a crisp morning, there are so many things I love about it. At this time of year, I wish I could hit the pause button on Father Time and take a few more moments to soak it all up. I wish I could do it all, but there is only so much one can fit in the schedule before it’s gone. then one can count! From corn mazes and pumpkin patches to the many cranberry and Octoberfests throughout the state, the list goes on and on. How about grabbing your favorite sweatshirt and taking in a high school football game? Putting on tennis shoes and taking a walk around the lake to experience the fall colors? What about taking a drive and spending some time at a local festival? Or grabbing the fishing pole, bicycle, kayak, hiking boots, etc., and getting back to nature? The possibilities are almost endless. What about Indian Summer? As I write this, it looks like we are in store for a wonderful stretch of weather. Mother Nature must feel we need it before the next season… I dare not say it, you know… the one that starts with a W. I hate to see fall fade, but we know it will. Then it comes, the last of all real fall traditions…Thanksgiving. This is not continued on page 4» I’m not the only one who loves fall - so does Becki and our children, as well. Hay rides and picking out pumpkins have to top the list for the kids, while UW homecoming and taking in the fall colors are Becki’s favorites. For me, it has to be football and the time spent outdoors that make it special. There is nothing better than having friends and family over for the Packer game (okay Bears fans, just this once, feel free to replace “Packer” with “Bears” if you feel the need!) There are also more fun family activities and festivals “ Tyson Jon Ray Certified Financial Planner™ Founding Partner Luke Kuchenberg Certified Financial Planner™ Founding Partner 431 Geneva National Ave. South, Lake Geneva, WI 53147 (262) 686-3005 / (844) 600-3008 www.formwealth.com To be yourself in a world that is constantly trying to make you something else is the greatest accomplishment. —Ralph Waldo Emerson Tyson Ray Wins the Invest in Others Community Impact Award BY JULIA INGERSOLL, PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTOR Children’s World Impact (CWI) is proud to announce that Tyson Ray won the 2014 Invest in Others Global Community Impact Award; one of five categories of awards presented on September 18th at the eighth annual Invest in Others Community Leadership Awards dinner in New York City. Tyson earned the honor for his work with CWI, which has received a $20,000 donation from the Invest in Others Charitable Foundation. Hundreds of nominations for the Community Leadership Awards are received each year and reviewed by a diverse panel of leaders in the financial services industry. Nominees were evaluated based on their level of involvement in an organization, their personal contributions, and the impact of their efforts. water purification systems, and medical facilities. Tyson has worked tirelessly throughout Haiti and Ghana, raised over $750,000 to date, recruited hundreds of volunteers, and has led a dozen mission trips. Through his work with CWI, Tyson has impacted over 1,000 women and children in Ghana and over 3,000 women and children in Haiti. Tyson’s definition of success? “Investing in others and changing lives.” “Tyson is very deserving of this recognition,” said Scott Curtis, president of Raymond James Financial Services. “His passionate commitment to bettering the lives of others through community service is inspirational and we’re proud of his Raymond James affiliation.” Raymond James is independent of Invest in Others and Children’s World Impact. The Invest in Others Community Impact Award is not associated with Raymond James. “The Invest in Others Community Leadership Awards showcases the selfless efforts of financial advisors to improve communities in the U.S. and abroad. Tyson has made a lasting impact on the lives of those in need in Haiti and Ghana through Children’s World Impact. Tyson and the other advisors honored this year represent the very best of the financial services industry,” said Megan McAuley, Executive Director of Invest in Others. Children’s World Impact seeks to break the cycle of poverty through care and community development, specifically aimed at orphans and widows. Care projects for women and children include providing food, clothing, shelter, education, and income opportunities, while community development projects include building schools, housing, 2 | inFORMational Robert DeChellis and Tyson Ray at the Invest in Others Awards Dinner, New York, NY Right now, all around the world, a mother is watching her child slowly die of starvation. Right now, all around the world, a child is hungry, crying out for someone to feed their empty belly. We at Children’s World Impact have met these mothers and we have heard the cries of their hungry children. So each year for the past 6 years, we have sought to raise the needed $25,000 to create 100,000 meals to send out to help these mothers nourish these children. CWI has always been amazed at the willing hands of over 500 volunteers who show up and give their time, working to break down large 50 pound bags of ingredients to individual sealed bags for easy distribution and preservation of these meals. Each year CWI raises the needed funds to cover the cost of these meals. This is not a fundraising event for CWI, as CWI spends every dollar raised to purchase these meals. • $2,500 – Feed a Community Sponsor provides 10,000 meals • $1,000 – Feed a Village Sponsor provides 4,000 meals • $500 – Feed a Family Sponsor provides 2,000 meals • $100 – Feed a Child Sponsor provides 400 meals We are asking you to consider helping mothers feed their children. We are asking you to fund the work of over 500 volunteers who will give their time to package these meals. We are also asking you to give so we can work with FEEDING WALWORTH COUNTY and help them break down bulk food, which will allow them to distribute 50,000 meals to local Walworth County food pantries. We are also asking you to consider being one of the 500 volunteers who will give of their time to make an impact and a difference for so many hungry people locally and abroad. This year’s event will take place at Geneva Ridge Resort, located on State Highway 50 between Williams Bay and Lake Geneva. There are 5 shifts for which you can volunteer. • • • • • Friday, December 5 Friday, December 5 Friday, December 5 Saturday, December 6 Saturday, December 6 3:00-4:30 p.m. 5:00-6:30 p.m. 7:00-8:30 p.m 8:00-9:30 a.m. 10:00-11:30 a.m. Additional information and opportunities to participate can be found at our website: www.childrensworldimpact. org or call 844-444-2900 to volunteer or donate. inFORMational |3 » Fall...into the Season...CONTINUED just an annual feast; the day is something special. It is a time for fellowship with loved ones and truly living with an attitude of gratitude. It is a time of thanks, a time to count our many blessings. Before the fall season is laid to rest and our minds shift to the winter holidays, this is the last stop. As mentioned, there are many things we are blessed with and included on the list is this little slice of mid-western geography that most of us call home. While the focus of my thoughts is the current season, I feel we are wonderfully fortunate to be able to experience all four seasons here in their full glory. Something to remember the next time the meteorologist forecasts a Polar Vortex is on the way! Now is the time. There’s no time like the present. Get out there and enjoy this season. Have a blast and make some memories with your friends, family and especially with those kids and grandkids. Time waits for no one…. Here’s to good living! Rachael Nor Nickelsen, Account Executive Rachael Nor married Matt Nickelsen on October 4, 2014 at a family ceremony held at the Lake Geneva Bible Chapel. They enjoyed their week-long honeymoon in Saint Kitts. Matt grew up in Racine, Wisconsin and they now live in Elkhorn. Matt works for Getzen and has 5 wonderful children, Matthew-15, Myles-14, Gianna-12, Luke-9 and Brooke-7. We are very happy for Rachael and Matt and welcome them all into our FORM Family. 4 | inFORMational History Lessons on Investing in Optimism I want to frame the reality of the history of investing as it was taught to me by one of my favorite clients. She was a school teacher and, through the years I worked with her, she taught me the History of Investing. Upon further study of my own, I found her lessons grounded in the truth of history. The facts show clearly that optimism is the truest realism. In other words, we are misled and ill-advised when we let fear and nervousness from short-term events or headlines rob us of the potential for long-term gains. To be an investor is to be continually optimistic. No one taught me this more than my client, Chris, who lived to the age of 98. BY TYSON RAY, CFP® risks of investing were considered too great. In the 1920’s, advances through human ingenuity brought production and prosperity to both American agriculture and industry. Even though human ingenuity gave birth to greater productivity, there remained a hesitancy to invest in the American economy during Peter’s youth as well. Before he was out of knee pants, the equity market had declined 89%. For the first fifteen years of his life, America faced a prolonged depression and another World War. Many people were caught up in all of the negatives society was enduring. People still failed to invest appropriately. continued on page 8 Chris was born in 1907, at a time when more than half of all US workers worked in food production, half of all homes had no plumbing, and barely a third of the population had a high school diploma. There were few cars or radios, and the average life expectancy at birth was only 47. Twenty years later, when Chris’s son, Peter, was born in 1927, the US was in the throes of industrialization, and with it, traditional farm life was on the decline. Cars and machinery replaced horse power, almost everyone had a radio, and Edison’s genius was recognized with his inventions of the phonograph and light bulb. World War I was over, and with the country’s improved health standards, life expectancy had increased to over 60 years of age. Ironically, despite the many time and money-saving inventions created during Chris’s early life, and the fact that Americans were increasingly able to afford those innovations, few people wanted to invest in America or the American economy. The wringer washing machine, electric lights, electric streetcars and vacuum cleaners were all greeted with fascination and excitement. However skepticism was still strong, and the inFORMational |5 Vanguard Turns 40! Happy Birthday! BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP ® When it comes to investments, Tyson and I believe that cost matters. You get what you pay for and extra costs without added value erodes returns, rather than enhances them. Because of this belief, we are using the Vanguard Group for many of our current investment choices in our FORM managed discretionary models. Given our partnership with Vanguard, we wanted to celebrate their 40th year in the business, humbled that the Vanguard Group is a few months older than both Tyson and me. Yes, the Vanguard Group has been around longer than us – Tyson and I both turn 40 in 2015. I’m not sure that, forty years ago, I spent much time wondering about whether or not I’d be here to celebrate this 40th anniversary. (Not everyone lives beyond 85, and the odds are not improved when one has been beset by profound cardiac challenges that began 14 years before Vanguard was born.) Vanguard’s Founder John Clifton “Jack” Bogle wrote this memo: Today, the Vanguard Group of Investment Companies celebrates its 40th Anniversary. On September 24, 1974, the date of our incorporation, this firm began its life. Despite an industry consensus that we might not survive, we had high hopes. What Vanguard has done, perhaps inadvertently, was to create a truly mutual structure that comports with the great principle of business success: Treat your customers as if they were your owners. The magic of Vanguard (if that’s not too bold of a description) is that our customers, in fact, are our owners. The alignment of our clients’ interests with our own flows naturally from our unique structure. As Vanguard was the first—and still the only—firm in our industry to take this radical step, we needed to be innovative, developing investment programs that put our clients’ interests first. Vanguard is what we are today because we quickly became the most innovative firm in our field. Our unique new structure—still uncopied and unmatched—was, in substance, the triumph of the interests of fund shareholders over the interests of fund managers. 1974. Our at-cost mutual structure, which demanded that we focus on delivering investment results at the lowest reasonable cost. 6 | inFORMational As Helen Keller so wisely wrote: “The world is moved along, not only by the mighty shoves of its heroes, but also by the aggregate of the tiny pushes of each honest worker.” In a sense, the main thing that I have tried to do—ever since our founding in 1974—was to create a working environment based on integrity, service, and ethical values. A place where each of us, after Lincoln, “are touched by the better angels of our nature.” (Lincoln’s Inaugural Address, 1861) To each one of you, I say thank you! I wish you Godspeed, good fortune, and continued success. “Stay the Course!” Always, Jack Source www.johncbogle.com—on October 1, 2014. The opinions of John Clifton “Jack” Bogle are independent from and not necessarily those of Raymond James. He Didn’t Sell BY TYSON RAY, CFP® In the history of market declines, some of the worst ones occurred in October. There is certainly no proof every October makes for a down market. It all started with Black Thursday, October 24, 1929, it was officially the start of the Stock Market Crash of 1929. Black Monday and Black Tuesday originally referred to October 28 and 29, 1929. Few people today are old enough to personally remember the Crash of 1929 yet almost everyone understands the fears and panic of that horrible market. So as I am writing this in October and the markets are down, I thought I would offer you a history lesson of what a bad day in October has looked like – a day you may well remember. October 19, 1987: the term Black Monday was repeated some 58 years after it was first used in 1929. On this Black Monday 1987, stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 22.61%. The Black Monday decline was the largest oneday percentage decline in the Dow Jones. calendar year. In October 1987, the market lost all of the gains for that year and then made back enough of those losses to turn positive for the year. On January 2, 1987, the market opened at 1,897 points and closed December 31, 1987 at 1,939 points. What is even more interesting to the long term investor: the DJIA regained its August 25, 1987 closing high of 2,722 points almost two years later. (Source Dow Jones News) This is why a long term investor should look at the big picture, outside of even history’s greatest one day crash. FORM clients are the long term investors who understand that any single day, week, month, quarter or year in the market is less important than the long term view. As we have learned, there is no reason to panic or react when one understands history. The legendary portfolio manager Peter Lynch famously said, “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.” Everyone loves Warren Buffett, however no one talks about continued on page 9 For some perspective of the current time, the DJIA high for this year was 17,297 on September 19, 2014. A 22.61% drop from that level would be 3,911 points and take the DJIA down to 13,386. This is not a prediction. The truth is that no one can predict the future and accepting this reality is the beginning of real investing. I only offer the extension as a historical perspective for what was the worst day ever in the stock market. In reality, creating a daily perspective on the markets or your investments can be harmful to your long term success. Instead, take a look at this same information from an annual perspective. In 1987, the DJIA was positive for the inFORMational |7 Remember When... BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP® I ran across this data a few weeks back and felt compelled to share. Here is a look back at 1975….how many remember the leisure suit? Enjoy! Cost Of Living 1975 • Yearly Inflation Rate USA- 9.2% • Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average858 (while putting this together Dow stands at just over 17,000- WOW!) • Cost of a gallon of Gas- 50 cents • Loaf of bread- 28 cents • Gallon of Milk- $1.40 A few More Examples … • • • • • • • • • • Average Cost of new house- $39,300 Average Income per year- $14,100 Average Monthly Rent- $200 Foster Grant Sun Glasses- $5.00 Chevrolet Caprice- $4,819 Ford Mustang II- $4,105 Oldsmobile Delta 88 Royale- $5,626 Pontiac Ventura Coupe- $3,829 Woman’s Print Dress- $15.97 Men’s Leisure Suit- $39.90 (come on now tell the truth, how many of you guys had one?) Some Pop Culture and current events… • Saturday Night Live debuts on NBC • Muhammad Ali beat Joe Fraser in the “Thriller In Manilla” match • Betamax (Beta) video tape was released • McLean Stevenson (Col. Henry Blake) quits M*A*S*H • Sonny and Cher divorce • South Vietnam Surrenders • President Ford Assassination Attempt 8 | inFORMational Popular TV Shows • • • • • All in the Family (CBS) Rich Man, Poor Man (ABC) Laverne & Shirley (ABC) Maude (CBS) Sanford and Son (NBC) Popular Films • • • • Jaws The Towering Inferno The Return of the Pink Panther One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Top Billboard Songs • • • • • • “Angie Baby”- Helen Reddy “Mandy”- Barry Manilow “Please Mr. Postman”- The Carpenters “Best of My Love”- The Eagles “You’re No Good”- Linda Ronstadt “Jive Talkin’”- Bee Gees Sports • World Series Champs- Cincinnati Reds • Super Bowl IX Champs- Pittsburgh Steelers Fashion Icons • Pam Grier, Lynda Carter and Cheryl Tiegs Some 1975 quotes made famous • “We’re gonna need a bigger boat”- Roy Scheider, in ‘Jaws’ • “I’d rather be dead than sing Satisfaction when I’m 45”- Mick Jagger at age 33 • “Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun” – McDonalds » History Lessons on Investing in Optimism...CONTINUED The very real pain and distress of the Great Depression became embedded in the psyche of the survivors of that era. Depression stories and myths were passed from one generation to another. The result was that many investment decisions were based on these enduring myths. Today, retirement-age adults continue to make investment decisions based on conditions that occurred between seven and eight decades ago and may no longer be relevant. years, when William graduated from high school in 1975, both had nearly doubled. Still, any potential enthusiasm for investing was dampened by a recent recession, an oil embargo, and the disastrous consequences of double-digit inflation. Even with the virtually unknown innovation of the microprocessor in the early 1970’s, few had an appetite for investing. The Great Depression hurt those who sold their investments based on fear, emotion or necessity. The few investors who were patient – who kept their assets allocated among different asset classes, who remained diversified inside those asset classes and reinvested their dividends – made their investment loss back within a decade or shortly thereafter. In time, these savvy and steadfast investors actually went back to being permanently ahead. The progress and growth that occurred after World War II should have created an ideal time to invest, but the lingering uncertainties from the 1930’s still prevailed. If someone had invested $1,000 in the Standard & Poor’s Index on January 2, 1945 when the modern stock market began, that investment would be worth over a million dollars today. I wonder how many soldiers returning from WWII would be leaving rich legacies today if they had just taken that plunge. My client Chris was born during the horse and buggy days, but her grandson, William, was born in 1957, the same year that Voyager and Sputnik were launched. Most homes had indoor plumbing, and the polio vaccine and penicillin rid the world of many scourges. The Cold War was in full swing, but the economy stalled in mid-1957 and few wanted to invest then. What if they had invested in 1957? When William was born, the S&P 500 was right at 47, and the nation’s GDP was over $465 billion. In less than 20 William’s son, Mason, Chris’s great grandchild, was born on December 17, 1979. On that day, the S&P closed at 107, and the nation’s GDP was about $2.6 trillion. In spite of capitalism’s steady growth, media headlines were discouraging, and people remained extremely conservative. Only those who ignored that negative drumbeat and invested anyway would have enjoyed the incredible leap forward that occurred in the stock market. With the development of microchip technology, and the destruction of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the S&P reached 1257 in 2008, and the GDP grew to more than $14.2 trillion. With the crumbling of Communism, new free markets emerged and grew. And America was at the forefront of all these changes. continued on page 10 inFORMational |9 » History Lessons on Investing in Optimism...CONTINUED The lesson here is so much more than a finger wag at those afraid to take risks. History has clearly shown that optimism—even in the face of negative events and circumstances—has prevailed time and time again, as men and women choose their own destinies with creativity, grit and determination, just as our founding fathers did. Even though past performance cannot predict future results, it doesn’t pay to bet against history. Getting to know Chris taught me a lot about the power of optimism. Let’s recap: • 1957 – S&P was at 47 – US GDP $466 Billion • 1975 – S&P was at 95 – US GDP $1.6 Trillion • 2008 – S&P was at 1257 – US GDP $14.2 Trillion • 2013 – S&P was at 1862 - US GDP $16.8 Trillion Now here is what’s amazing: There are over 70 million baby boomers who were born between 1946 and 1964, and many of these “boomers” still have an opinion that you cannot make money investing in the markets. The media has repeatedly referred to the years between 2000 and 2010 as the “Lost Decade,” insinuating that investing doesn’t work anymore. Much worse, there are advisors today who have the opinion that you can’t make money investing in the markets over the long term. There is a stinkin’ thinkin’ going on that long-term investing should be replaced with short-term market timing. I believe the facts remain clear. The most valuable investment providing the greatest potential for increase with the least dilution to purchasing power and the lowest risk of being wrong in your timing decisions, or running out of money, or losing your long-term capital, is still—and has always been—a long-term diversified investment strategy. So in the end, it’s true that you might not be poor if you don’t invest in the market, but history shows that there is little else you can do with your money that can give the 10 | inFORMational same returns or rewards—and keeps up with inflation. I hope you, as a client and an investor, can see that you won’t find truth in today’s doomsday headlines, nor in your recent investment idea gone bad, nor any other fear-monger-based opinion. You will find truth in the fact mankind has— and can—continue to create wealth through its effort to improve itself. In my opinion the only truth which one can find in the historical facts is that optimism is the truest realism. Thus, Luke and I stand confident in our planning, in our recommendations and in our belief that the greatest potential for long-term gain is to not react to short term events. » He Didn’t Sell...CONTINUED how he really became this super investor and almost no one would have agreed with his logic at the times he made his best decisions. Warren Buffett “lost” $347,000,000 between sunup and sundown on October 19, 1987. Buffett’s Black Monday was a 24 hour loss of $347 million dollars. That’s how much his personal shareholdings in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. declined in value on that one day. In spite of this situation, he didn’t sell. A few months later in 1998, in the 45 days between July 17th and August 31, 1998, he “lost” $6,200,000,000. (Yes, that’s six billion two hundred million dollars.) He still didn’t sell. During the most recent market crash, between the October 2007 market top and the March 2009 trough, Warren Buffett “lost”—as nearly as I can calculate it, in round numbers—$25 billion dollars! Even then, he didn’t sell. Indeed, the smile never seems to have left his face. When asked by a CNBC personality how it felt to have “lost” 40% of his lifetime accumulation of capital, he noted it felt about the same as it had the previous three times it had happened... and he kept on smiling. It‘s not that hard to understand why. Berkshire Hathaway stock closed at $3,170 a share on October 19, 1987. On August 31, 1998, it closed at $60,500. It closed October 15, 2014 at $203,800. This is not an endorsement to buy Berkshire Hathaway stock because we at FORM do not invest our clients’ wealth in individual stocks. Rather it is the most extreme historical example of why one should not sell in a down market when it is not suitable for their situation. The opinions of Tyson Jon Ray are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett are independent of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. REMEMBER REQUIRED MINIMUM DISTRIBUTIONS (RMD’S) IRS regulations require that IRA owners who’ve reached the age of 70½ must take a distribution from their IRA’s and/or qualified plans each year. You have until December 31 to withdraw your RMD amount from your IRA. If you haven’t already taken your 2014 RMD, now’s the time to complete your required minimum distribution. Please call your FORM Wealth Account Executive at 262-686-3005 to review any questions and complete this important planning point. HOLIDAY TOY DRIVE Once again, as the holidays approach, we begin to think about those closest and most important to us. As we count our blessings, we also look around and know many who are less fortunate who would be greatly impacted by little acts of kindness. As in past years, we are participating in the 2014 Holiday Toy Drive for children in Walworth County. We are collecting new, unwrapped children’s toys at our office and will give them to the Walworth County Holiday Care Program. Last year this wonderful program served 400 families and 1000 children. We are proud to again be able to help them serve so many at this time of year. Toys may be dropped off to our office Monday-Friday, 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m. through December 4th. Thank you for your support and for helping the children of Walworth County to have a more Merry Christmas! inFORMational | 11 FORM of Help If you have someone you care about who might benefit from our services, we invite you to let us know. We are here to help you and often that can come in the FORM of helping those you care about. We invite them to experience the skill and dedication of a team built on integrity, client service and a spectrum of services for individuals, families and institutions. • Investment Management & Monitoring* • Life Insurance & Long Term Care • Retirement Income Planning • Debt Management & Lending** • Business Succession Planning • Estate Strategies To learn more, contact FORM Wealth today at 262-686-3005 or visit us at formwealth.com. * Professional money management is not suitable for all investors. ** Offered through Raymond James Bank. Mission Statement FORM Wealth seeks to be a family’s sole financial advisor. Working with only a select number of clients, we consult by knowing your Family, Occupation, Recreation, and Mission. Then, we focus on risk management. Austin Ray - 9 FORM Family Jackson Kuchenberg - 5 Carson Ray - 6 Nelson Ray - 11 Lauren Kuchenberg - 3