Fall...into the season BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP®

Transcription

Fall...into the season BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP®
FALL 2014
Fall...into the season BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP
®
It’s that time of year again, can you feel it? It’s fall… one
of the most cherished seasons of them all. While I love the
new beginnings of spring and the dog days of summer, fall
is my favorite. From my faded flannel shirt to a hot cup of
coffee on a crisp morning, there are so many things I love
about it. At this time of year, I wish I could hit the pause
button on Father Time and take a few more moments to
soak it all up. I wish I could do it all, but there is only so
much one can fit in the schedule before it’s gone.
then one can count! From corn mazes and pumpkin patches
to the many cranberry and Octoberfests throughout the
state, the list goes on and on. How about grabbing your
favorite sweatshirt and taking in a high school football
game? Putting on tennis shoes and taking a walk around the
lake to experience the fall colors? What about taking a drive
and spending some time at a local festival? Or grabbing the
fishing pole, bicycle, kayak, hiking boots, etc., and getting
back to nature? The possibilities are almost endless. What
about Indian Summer? As I write this, it looks like we are
in store for a wonderful stretch of weather. Mother Nature
must feel we need it before the next season… I dare not say
it, you know… the one that starts with a W.
I hate to see fall fade, but we know it will. Then it comes,
the last of all real fall traditions…Thanksgiving. This is not
continued on page 4»
I’m not the only one who loves fall - so does Becki and
our children, as well. Hay rides and picking out pumpkins
have to top the list for the kids, while UW homecoming
and taking in the fall colors are Becki’s favorites. For me, it
has to be football and the time spent outdoors that make
it special. There is nothing better than having friends and
family over for the Packer game (okay Bears fans, just this
once, feel free to replace “Packer” with “Bears” if you feel the
need!) There are also more fun family activities and festivals
“
Tyson Jon Ray
Certified Financial Planner™
Founding Partner
Luke Kuchenberg
Certified Financial Planner™
Founding Partner
431 Geneva National Ave. South, Lake Geneva, WI 53147
(262) 686-3005 / (844) 600-3008
www.formwealth.com
To be yourself in a world that is constantly trying to make you something else is the greatest accomplishment. —Ralph Waldo Emerson
Tyson Ray Wins the Invest in Others Community Impact Award
BY JULIA INGERSOLL, PUBLIC RELATIONS DIRECTOR
Children’s World Impact (CWI) is proud to announce
that Tyson Ray won the 2014 Invest in Others Global
Community Impact Award; one of five categories of
awards presented on September 18th at the eighth
annual Invest in Others Community Leadership Awards
dinner in New York City. Tyson earned the honor for his
work with CWI, which has received a $20,000 donation
from the Invest in Others Charitable Foundation.
Hundreds of nominations for the Community Leadership
Awards are received each year and reviewed by a diverse
panel of leaders in the financial services industry. Nominees
were evaluated based on their level of involvement in an
organization, their personal contributions, and the impact
of their efforts.
water purification systems, and medical facilities. Tyson has
worked tirelessly throughout Haiti and Ghana, raised over
$750,000 to date, recruited hundreds of volunteers, and has
led a dozen mission trips. Through his work with CWI, Tyson
has impacted over 1,000 women and children in Ghana and
over 3,000 women and children in Haiti.
Tyson’s definition of success? “Investing in others and
changing lives.” “Tyson is very deserving of this recognition,”
said Scott Curtis, president of Raymond James Financial
Services. “His passionate commitment to bettering the lives
of others through community service is inspirational and
we’re proud of his Raymond James affiliation.” 
Raymond James is independent of Invest in Others and Children’s World Impact. The Invest in Others
Community Impact Award is not associated with Raymond James.
“The Invest in Others Community Leadership Awards
showcases the selfless efforts of financial advisors to improve
communities in the U.S. and abroad. Tyson has made a
lasting impact on the lives of those in need in Haiti and
Ghana through Children’s World Impact. Tyson and the
other advisors honored this year represent the very best
of the financial services industry,” said Megan McAuley,
Executive Director of Invest in Others.
Children’s World Impact seeks to break the cycle of poverty
through care and community development, specifically
aimed at orphans and widows. Care projects for women
and children include providing food, clothing, shelter,
education, and income opportunities, while community
development projects include building schools, housing,
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Robert DeChellis and Tyson Ray at the Invest in Others
Awards Dinner, New York, NY
Right now, all around the world, a mother is watching
her child slowly die of starvation. Right now, all around
the world, a child is hungry, crying out for someone to
feed their empty belly. We at Children’s World Impact
have met these mothers and we have heard the cries
of their hungry children. So each year for the past 6
years, we have sought to raise the needed $25,000 to
create 100,000 meals to send out to help these mothers
nourish these children.
CWI has always been amazed at the willing hands
of over 500 volunteers who show up and give their
time, working to break down large 50 pound bags of
ingredients to individual sealed bags for easy distribution
and preservation of these meals. Each year CWI raises
the needed funds to cover the cost of these meals. This is
not a fundraising event for CWI, as CWI spends every
dollar raised to purchase these meals.
• $2,500 – Feed a Community Sponsor provides
10,000 meals
• $1,000 – Feed a Village Sponsor provides 4,000 meals
• $500 – Feed a Family Sponsor provides 2,000 meals
• $100 – Feed a Child Sponsor provides 400 meals
We are asking you to consider helping mothers feed their
children. We are asking you to fund the work of over
500 volunteers who will give their time to package these
meals. We are also asking you to give so we can work with
FEEDING WALWORTH COUNTY and help them
break down bulk food, which will allow them to distribute
50,000 meals to local Walworth County food pantries.
We are also asking you to consider being one of the 500
volunteers who will give of their time to make an impact and a
difference for so many hungry people locally and abroad. This
year’s event will take place at Geneva Ridge Resort, located on
State Highway 50 between Williams Bay and Lake Geneva.
There are 5 shifts for which you can volunteer.
•
•
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Friday, December 5 Friday, December 5 Friday, December 5 Saturday, December 6 Saturday, December 6 3:00-4:30 p.m.
5:00-6:30 p.m.
7:00-8:30 p.m
8:00-9:30 a.m.
10:00-11:30 a.m.
Additional information and opportunities to participate
can be found at our website: www.childrensworldimpact.
org or call 844-444-2900 to volunteer or donate. 
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» Fall...into the Season...CONTINUED
just an annual feast; the day is something special. It is a
time for fellowship with loved ones and truly living with
an attitude of gratitude. It is a time of thanks, a time to
count our many blessings. Before the fall season is laid
to rest and our minds shift to the winter holidays, this is
the last stop. As mentioned, there are many things we are
blessed with and included on the list is this little slice of
mid-western geography that most of us call home. While
the focus of my thoughts is the current season, I feel we
are wonderfully fortunate to be able to experience all four
seasons here in their full glory. Something to remember
the next time the meteorologist forecasts a Polar Vortex
is on the way!
Now is the time. There’s no time like the present. Get
out there and enjoy this season. Have a blast and make
some memories with your friends, family and especially
with those kids and grandkids. Time waits for no one….
Here’s to good living! 
Rachael Nor Nickelsen,
Account Executive
Rachael Nor married Matt Nickelsen on October 4,
2014 at a family ceremony held at the Lake Geneva Bible
Chapel. They enjoyed their week-long honeymoon in
Saint Kitts. Matt grew up in Racine, Wisconsin and they
now live in Elkhorn. Matt works for Getzen and has 5
wonderful children, Matthew-15, Myles-14, Gianna-12,
Luke-9 and Brooke-7. We are very happy for Rachael and
Matt and welcome them all into our FORM Family. 
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History Lessons on Investing in Optimism
I want to frame the reality of the history of investing as it
was taught to me by one of my favorite clients. She was
a school teacher and, through the years I worked with
her, she taught me the History of Investing. Upon further
study of my own, I found her lessons grounded in the
truth of history.
The facts show clearly that optimism is the truest realism.
In other words, we are misled and ill-advised when we let fear
and nervousness from short-term events or headlines rob us
of the potential for long-term gains.
To be an investor is to be continually optimistic. No one taught
me this more than my client, Chris, who lived to the age of 98.
BY TYSON RAY, CFP®
risks of investing were considered too great.
In the 1920’s, advances through human ingenuity brought
production and prosperity to both American agriculture
and industry. Even though human ingenuity gave birth to
greater productivity, there remained a hesitancy to invest in
the American economy during Peter’s youth as well. Before
he was out of knee pants, the equity market had declined
89%. For the first fifteen years of his life, America faced
a prolonged depression and another World War. Many
people were caught up in all of the negatives society was
enduring. People still failed to invest appropriately.
continued on page 8
Chris was born in 1907, at a time when more than half of
all US workers worked in food production, half of all homes
had no plumbing, and barely a third of the population had a
high school diploma. There were few cars or radios, and the
average life expectancy at birth was only 47.
Twenty years later, when Chris’s son, Peter, was born in 1927,
the US was in the throes of industrialization, and with it,
traditional farm life was on the decline. Cars and machinery
replaced horse power, almost everyone had a radio, and
Edison’s genius was recognized with his inventions of the
phonograph and light bulb. World War I was over, and with
the country’s improved health standards, life expectancy had
increased to over 60 years of age.
Ironically, despite the many time and money-saving inventions
created during Chris’s early life, and the fact that Americans
were increasingly able to afford those innovations, few people
wanted to invest in America or the American economy. The
wringer washing machine, electric lights, electric streetcars
and vacuum cleaners were all greeted with fascination and
excitement. However skepticism was still strong, and the
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Vanguard Turns 40! Happy Birthday! BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP
®
When it comes to investments, Tyson and I believe
that cost matters. You get what you pay for and extra
costs without added value erodes returns, rather than
enhances them. Because of this belief, we are using the
Vanguard Group for many of our current investment
choices in our FORM managed discretionary models.
Given our partnership with Vanguard, we wanted to
celebrate their 40th year in the business, humbled that
the Vanguard Group is a few months older than both
Tyson and me. Yes, the Vanguard Group has been around
longer than us – Tyson and I both turn 40 in 2015.
I’m not sure that, forty years ago, I spent much time
wondering about whether or not I’d be here to celebrate
this 40th anniversary. (Not everyone lives beyond 85,
and the odds are not improved when one has been beset
by profound cardiac challenges that began 14 years
before Vanguard was born.)
Vanguard’s Founder John Clifton “Jack” Bogle wrote this memo:
Today, the Vanguard Group of Investment Companies
celebrates its 40th Anniversary. On September 24,
1974, the date of our incorporation, this firm began its
life. Despite an industry consensus that we might not
survive, we had high hopes.
What Vanguard has done, perhaps inadvertently, was to
create a truly mutual structure that comports with the great
principle of business success: Treat your customers as if they
were your owners. The magic of Vanguard (if that’s not too
bold of a description) is that our customers, in fact, are our
owners. The alignment of our clients’ interests with our own
flows naturally from our unique structure. As Vanguard was
the first—and still the only—firm in our industry to take
this radical step, we needed to be innovative, developing
investment programs that put our clients’ interests first.
Vanguard is what we are today because we quickly became
the most innovative firm in our field. Our unique new
structure—still uncopied and unmatched—was, in
substance, the triumph of the interests of fund shareholders
over the interests of fund managers. 1974. Our at-cost
mutual structure, which demanded that we focus on
delivering investment results at the lowest reasonable cost.
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As Helen Keller so wisely wrote: “The world is moved
along, not only by the mighty shoves of its heroes, but
also by the aggregate of the tiny pushes of each honest
worker.” In a sense, the main thing that I have tried to
do—ever since our founding in 1974—was to create a
working environment based on integrity, service, and
ethical values. A place where each of us, after Lincoln,
“are touched by the better angels of our nature.”
(Lincoln’s Inaugural Address, 1861)
To each one of you, I say thank you! I wish you Godspeed,
good fortune, and continued success. “Stay the Course!”
Always, Jack 
Source www.johncbogle.com—on October 1, 2014. The opinions of John Clifton “Jack” Bogle are
independent from and not necessarily those of Raymond James.
He Didn’t Sell
BY TYSON RAY, CFP®
In the history of market declines, some of the worst ones
occurred in October. There is certainly no proof every
October makes for a down market. It all started with
Black Thursday, October 24, 1929, it was officially the
start of the Stock Market Crash of 1929. Black Monday
and Black Tuesday originally referred to October 28
and 29, 1929.
Few people today are old enough to personally remember
the Crash of 1929 yet almost everyone understands the fears
and panic of that horrible market. So as I am writing this
in October and the markets are down, I thought I would
offer you a history lesson of what a bad day in October has
looked like – a day you may well remember.
October 19, 1987: the term Black Monday was repeated
some 58 years after it was first used in 1929. On this Black
Monday 1987, stock markets around the world crashed,
shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began
in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United
States after other markets had already declined by a significant
margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped
by 22.61%. The Black Monday decline was the largest oneday percentage decline in the Dow Jones.
calendar year. In October 1987, the market lost all of the
gains for that year and then made back enough of those
losses to turn positive for the year. On January 2, 1987, the
market opened at 1,897 points and closed December 31,
1987 at 1,939 points. What is even more interesting to the
long term investor: the DJIA regained its August 25, 1987
closing high of 2,722 points almost two years later. (Source
Dow Jones News)
This is why a long term investor should look at the big
picture, outside of even history’s greatest one day crash.
FORM clients are the long term investors who understand
that any single day, week, month, quarter or year in the
market is less important than the long term view. As we
have learned, there is no reason to panic or react when one
understands history.
The legendary portfolio manager Peter Lynch famously
said, “The real key to making money in stocks is not to get
scared out of them.”
Everyone loves Warren Buffett, however no one talks about
continued on page 9
For some perspective of the current time, the DJIA high for
this year was 17,297 on September 19, 2014. A 22.61%
drop from that level would be 3,911 points and take the
DJIA down to 13,386. This is not a prediction. The truth is
that no one can predict the future and accepting this reality
is the beginning of real investing. I only offer the extension
as a historical perspective for what was the worst day ever in
the stock market.
In reality, creating a daily perspective on the markets or
your investments can be harmful to your long term success.
Instead, take a look at this same information from an
annual perspective. In 1987, the DJIA was positive for the
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Remember When...
BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP®
I ran across this data a few weeks back and felt compelled
to share. Here is a look back at 1975….how many
remember the leisure suit? Enjoy!
Cost Of Living 1975
• Yearly Inflation Rate USA- 9.2%
• Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average858 (while putting this together Dow stands at
just over 17,000- WOW!)
• Cost of a gallon of Gas- 50 cents
• Loaf of bread- 28 cents
• Gallon of Milk- $1.40
A few More Examples …
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Average Cost of new house- $39,300
Average Income per year- $14,100
Average Monthly Rent- $200
Foster Grant Sun Glasses- $5.00
Chevrolet Caprice- $4,819
Ford Mustang II- $4,105
Oldsmobile Delta 88 Royale- $5,626
Pontiac Ventura Coupe- $3,829
Woman’s Print Dress- $15.97
Men’s Leisure Suit- $39.90 (come on now tell the
truth, how many of you guys had one?)
Some Pop Culture and current events…
• Saturday Night Live debuts on NBC
• Muhammad Ali beat Joe Fraser in the “Thriller In
Manilla” match
• Betamax (Beta) video tape was released
• McLean Stevenson (Col. Henry Blake) quits
M*A*S*H
• Sonny and Cher divorce
• South Vietnam Surrenders
• President Ford Assassination Attempt
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Popular TV Shows
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All in the Family (CBS)
Rich Man, Poor Man (ABC)
Laverne & Shirley (ABC)
Maude (CBS)
Sanford and Son (NBC)
Popular Films
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Jaws
The Towering Inferno
The Return of the Pink Panther
One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
Top Billboard Songs
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“Angie Baby”- Helen Reddy
“Mandy”- Barry Manilow
“Please Mr. Postman”- The Carpenters
“Best of My Love”- The Eagles
“You’re No Good”- Linda Ronstadt
“Jive Talkin’”- Bee Gees
Sports
• World Series Champs- Cincinnati Reds
• Super Bowl IX Champs- Pittsburgh Steelers
Fashion Icons
• Pam Grier, Lynda Carter and Cheryl Tiegs
Some 1975 quotes made famous
• “We’re gonna need a bigger boat”- Roy Scheider,
in ‘Jaws’
• “I’d rather be dead than sing Satisfaction when
I’m 45”- Mick Jagger at age 33
• “Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce,
cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun” –
McDonalds 
» History Lessons on Investing in Optimism...CONTINUED
The very real pain and distress of the Great Depression
became embedded in the psyche of the survivors of that
era. Depression stories and myths were passed from one
generation to another. The result was that many investment
decisions were based on these enduring myths. Today,
retirement-age adults continue to make investment
decisions based on conditions that occurred between seven
and eight decades ago and may no longer be relevant.
years, when William graduated from high school in 1975,
both had nearly doubled. Still, any potential enthusiasm
for investing was dampened by a recent recession, an oil
embargo, and the disastrous consequences of double-digit
inflation. Even with the virtually unknown innovation of
the microprocessor in the early 1970’s, few had an appetite
for investing.
The Great Depression hurt those who sold their investments
based on fear, emotion or necessity. The few investors
who were patient – who kept their assets allocated among
different asset classes, who remained diversified inside those
asset classes and reinvested their dividends – made their
investment loss back within a decade or shortly thereafter.
In time, these savvy and steadfast investors actually went
back to being permanently ahead.
The progress and growth that occurred after World War
II should have created an ideal time to invest, but the
lingering uncertainties from the 1930’s still prevailed. If
someone had invested $1,000 in the Standard & Poor’s
Index on January 2, 1945 when the modern stock market
began, that investment would be worth over a million
dollars today. I wonder how many soldiers returning from
WWII would be leaving rich legacies today if they had
just taken that plunge.
My client Chris was born during the horse and buggy days,
but her grandson, William, was born in 1957, the same
year that Voyager and Sputnik were launched. Most homes
had indoor plumbing, and the polio vaccine and penicillin
rid the world of many scourges. The Cold War was in
full swing, but the economy stalled in mid-1957 and few
wanted to invest then. What if they had invested in 1957?
When William was born, the S&P 500 was right at 47, and
the nation’s GDP was over $465 billion. In less than 20
William’s son, Mason, Chris’s great grandchild, was born
on December 17, 1979. On that day, the S&P closed
at 107, and the nation’s GDP was about $2.6 trillion.
In spite of capitalism’s steady growth, media headlines
were discouraging, and people remained extremely
conservative. Only those who ignored that negative
drumbeat and invested anyway would have enjoyed the
incredible leap forward that occurred in the stock market.
With the development of microchip technology, and the
destruction of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the S&P reached
1257 in 2008, and the GDP grew to more than $14.2
trillion. With the crumbling of Communism, new free
markets emerged and grew. And America was at the
forefront of all these changes.
continued on page 10
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» History Lessons on Investing in Optimism...CONTINUED
The lesson here is so much more than a finger wag at
those afraid to take risks. History has clearly shown
that optimism—even in the face of negative events and
circumstances—has prevailed time and time again, as men
and women choose their own destinies with creativity, grit
and determination, just as our founding fathers did. Even
though past performance cannot predict future results, it
doesn’t pay to bet against history. Getting to know Chris
taught me a lot about the power of optimism.
Let’s recap:
• 1957 – S&P was at 47 – US GDP $466 Billion
• 1975 – S&P was at 95 – US GDP $1.6 Trillion
• 2008 – S&P was at 1257 – US GDP $14.2 Trillion
• 2013 – S&P was at 1862 - US GDP $16.8 Trillion
Now here is what’s amazing: There are over 70 million
baby boomers who were born between 1946 and 1964,
and many of these “boomers” still have an opinion that
you cannot make money investing in the markets. The
media has repeatedly referred to the years between 2000
and 2010 as the “Lost Decade,” insinuating that investing
doesn’t work anymore. Much worse, there are advisors
today who have the opinion that you can’t make money
investing in the markets over the long term. There is a
stinkin’ thinkin’ going on that long-term investing should
be replaced with short-term market timing.
I believe the facts remain clear. The most valuable investment
providing the greatest potential for increase with the least
dilution to purchasing power and the lowest risk of being
wrong in your timing decisions, or running out of money,
or losing your long-term capital, is still—and has always
been—a long-term diversified investment strategy.
So in the end, it’s true that you might not be poor if you
don’t invest in the market, but history shows that there is
little else you can do with your money that can give the
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same returns or rewards—and keeps up with inflation.
I hope you, as a client and an investor, can see that you won’t
find truth in today’s doomsday headlines, nor in your recent
investment idea gone bad, nor any other fear-monger-based
opinion. You will find truth in the fact mankind has—
and can—continue to create wealth through its effort to
improve itself.
In my opinion the only truth which one can find in the
historical facts is that optimism is the truest realism.
Thus, Luke and I stand confident in our planning, in
our recommendations and in our belief that the greatest
potential for long-term gain is to not react to short term
events. 
» He Didn’t Sell...CONTINUED
how he really became this super investor and almost no
one would have agreed with his logic at the times he made
his best decisions. Warren Buffett “lost” $347,000,000
between sunup and sundown on October 19, 1987. Buffett’s
Black Monday was a 24 hour loss of $347 million dollars.
That’s how much his personal shareholdings in Berkshire
Hathaway Inc. declined in value on that one day. In spite
of this situation, he didn’t sell.
A few months later in 1998, in the 45 days between July 17th
and August 31, 1998, he “lost” $6,200,000,000. (Yes, that’s six
billion two hundred million dollars.) He still didn’t sell.
During the most recent market crash, between the October
2007 market top and the March 2009 trough, Warren
Buffett “lost”—as nearly as I can calculate it, in round
numbers—$25 billion dollars! Even then, he didn’t sell.
Indeed, the smile never seems to have left his face. When
asked by a CNBC personality how it felt to have “lost”
40% of his lifetime accumulation of capital, he noted it
felt about the same as it had the previous three times it had
happened... and he kept on smiling.
It‘s not that hard to understand why. Berkshire Hathaway
stock closed at $3,170 a share on October 19, 1987. On
August 31, 1998, it closed at $60,500. It closed October
15, 2014 at $203,800.
This is not an endorsement to buy Berkshire Hathaway
stock because we at FORM do not invest our clients’ wealth
in individual stocks. Rather it is the most extreme historical
example of why one should not sell in a down market when
it is not suitable for their situation. 
The opinions of Tyson Jon Ray are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett
are independent of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change
without notice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index
representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal.
REMEMBER REQUIRED MINIMUM
DISTRIBUTIONS (RMD’S)
IRS regulations require that IRA owners who’ve
reached the age of 70½ must take a distribution
from their IRA’s and/or qualified plans each year.
You have until December 31 to withdraw your RMD
amount from your IRA. If you haven’t already taken
your 2014 RMD, now’s the time to complete your
required minimum distribution. Please call your
FORM Wealth Account Executive at 262-686-3005 to
review any questions and complete this important
planning point. 
HOLIDAY TOY DRIVE
Once again, as the holidays approach, we begin to
think about those closest and most important to
us. As we count our blessings, we also look around
and know many who are less fortunate who would
be greatly impacted by little acts of kindness. As in
past years, we are participating in the 2014 Holiday
Toy Drive for children in Walworth County. We are
collecting new, unwrapped children’s toys at our
office and will give them to the Walworth County
Holiday Care Program. Last year this wonderful
program served 400 families and 1000 children. We
are proud to again be able to help them serve so
many at this time of year. Toys may be dropped
off to our office Monday-Friday, 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m.
through December 4th. Thank you for your support
and for helping the children of Walworth County to
have a more Merry Christmas! 
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Austin Ray - 9
FORM Family
Jackson Kuchenberg - 5
Carson Ray - 6
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Lauren Kuchenberg - 3