Desafios ao setor de energia no Brasil

Atribuição‐Sem Derivações‐Sem Derivados CC BY‐NC‐ND Desafios ao setor de
energia no Brasil
2015
Guilherme Favaron
Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento e Eficiência Energética
guilherme.favaron@aes.com
0
Corporate Presentation
2015
AES Corporation
Global Company
Natural gas and coal fired
thermal plants
35 GW
Installed
capacity
Providing
services to over
100 million
people
18.5
thousand
employees
24.9 of installed capacity
Over 8.5 GW of
Renewable sources¹
AES Corp is present in 18 countries and 4 continents
Distributed energy
+60MW of solar PV²
projects
World leader in
Energy Storage
Total of 228 MW³
1 – Includes hydro, wind, solar, energy storage, and biomass 2 - PV – Photovoltaic; 3 - Operating and under construction
2
AES Brasil SBU
Represents 13% of 2014 AES Corp adjusted PTC¹
2014 AES Corp adjusted PTC¹
19%
2%
19%
AES Brasil is
one of AES
Corp priority
markets
24%
23%
13%
US
MCAC²
Andes
EMEA³
AES Corp is organized
in Six Strategic
Business Units (SBU),
focused on key
markets
Brazil
Asia
1 – Pre-tax contribution (a non-GAAP financial measure); 2 – Mexico, Central America and Caribbean; 3 – Europe, Middle-East and Africa
3
Leading position in the energy
sector in Brazil
Generation1
Market Share
AES Tietê
2,658 MW
Concession ends in 2029
AES Serviços
AES Uruguaiana
640 MW
Distribution2
Market Share
2%
AES Eletropaulo
20m people served
6.7m customers
Concession ends in 2028
AES Sul
3.5m people served
1.3m customers
Concession ends in 2027
11%
89%
98%
AES Brasil
1 – in terms of installed capacity as of 2015; 2– in terms of distribution capacity as of 2014.
Other
4
History in Brazil
Solid participation in distribution and generation businesses
1995
AES Brasil
+19 years
presence in
Brazil
Beginning of
AES
Uruguaiana
construction
1998
AES Corp
acquired AES
Sul through
privatization
process
1997
Privatization
of AES
Eletropaulo
by a
consortium
comprised by
AES Corp and
other local
and
international
companies
2000
Privatization
of AES Tietê
1999
AES
Uruguaiana
beginning of
operation
2003
AES Corp
increases its
interest in
AES
Eletropaulo
and AES
Tietê
Incorporation
of Companhia
Brasiliana de
Energia and
execution of
shareholders
agreement
with BNDES
2001
2002
5
AES Brasil Mission, Vision and Values
Mission
Vision
Values
To promote well being and development with the safe, sustainable and reliable provision of energy solutions
To be the leading power company in Brazil that safely provides sustainable, reliable and affordable energy
• Put safety first
•Act with integrity
•Honor commitments
•Strive for excellence
•Have fun through work
6
6
AES Brasil environmental responsibility
• Reservoirs repopulation
• Reforesting, border and archeological
management programs
• Water quality monitoring
• Recycling and waste disposal programs
• Programs aiming to reduce CO2 emissions
• Risk Management and identification of
opportunities related to climate change
7
7
AES Brasil social responsibility
• Access to reliable energy through social
development
• Education for efficient and safe use of
electricity
• Program which offer cultural and sports
activities simulating citizenship practices
• Sustainable partnership – commitment with
sustainable development at AES Brasil’ value
chain
8
8
INVESTMENT
PLAN
2015
- 2019
R$ 3.2 billion
R$ 487 million
2015
1% 10%
89%
4.8
billion
2019
Generation
R$ 1.1 billion
R$
Distribution
Services
R$ 19 million
9
AES Brasil widely recognized
AES Eletropaulo
AES Tietê
AES Brasil
AES Sul
10
National Interconnected System
GENERATION
Distribution
Substation
Thermal
Plant
Hydroelectric
and Solar Plant
Renewable
Energy
DISTRIBUTION
Substation
Transformer
Substation
Transformer
TRANSMISSION
COMERCIAL AND
INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS
RESIDENTIAL
CUSTOMERS
11
Energy sector in Brazil: businesses segments
Generation¹
Transmission²
Distribution²
• 3,631 power plants
• 77 companies
• 65 distribution companies
• 139 GW of installed capacity
• High voltage transmission (>230 kV)
• 473 TWh energy distributed
• System based on hydro plants (66%)
• 116,767 km lines (National • 190 million consumers
• Contracting environment: free and
regulated markets
Integrated System)
• Regulated tariff (annually adjusted by inflation)
Sources: EPE, ANEEL, ONS, ABRADEE and Instituto Acende Brasil
1 – Refers to 2015 data; 2 – Refers to 2013 data
• Annual tariff adjustment
• Tariff reset every four or five years
• Regulated contracting environment 12
● 3rd largest among private generation companies
● Concession expires in 2029
● Market Cap: US$ 2.0 billion1
● 9 hydroelectric plants and 3 SHP³ in São Paulo
● Installed capacity of 2,658 MW, physical guarantee2
of 1,278 MWavg
● Physical guarantee fully contracted with AES
Eletropaulo through Dec, 2015
Brazil
Água Vermelha (1.396 MW)
Nova Avanhandava (347 MW)
Promissão (264 MW)
Ibitinga(132 MW)
Bariri (143 MW)
Barra Bonita (141 MW)
Euclides de Cunha (109 MW)
Caconde (80MW)
Limoeiro (32 MW)
Mogi‐Guaçu (7 MW)
São Joaquim (3 MW)
São José (4 MW)
● Dividend Yield:
- 2014: 9.7% PN and 10.4% ON
- Last 3 years avg: 11.0% PN and 11.4% ON
● Investment grade (Moody’s):
- National: Aa1
- International: Baa3
1 - Base: 03/25/2015; 2 - Amount of energy allowed to be contracted in the long term ; 3 – SHP – Small hydroelectric plant (installed capacity <30MW)
14
Brazil
Brazil
São Paulo
●
Largest distribution company in Latin America
●
24 cities attended in São Paulo metropolitan area
●
Concession contract expires in 2028
●
16% of Brazil’s GDP¹ in its concession area
●
4,526 km2 concession area
●
46 thousand km of distribution and transmission lines
●
6.7 million customers
●
20 million people served
●
46 TWh distributed in 2014
●
6,152 employees as of December 2014
Investment Grade:
West, South, & ABC
North & East
1 – Source: IBGE, 2010.
Fitch
S&P
Moody’s
National
A+
AA-
Aa3
International
BB
BB
Ba2
15
●
SAIDI and SAIFI 30% better than in 2009, within regulatory
limits
●
Operating costs 2% below the regulatory levels
●
118 cities attended in Rio Grande do Sul state
●
Concession contract expires in 2027
●
1.3 million customers
●
9,528 GWh sold in 2014
●
99,512 km² concession area
●
3.5 million people served
●
1,635 direct employees¹
●
Regional GDP growth of 3.2%²
●
63% dividend payout in 2012
●
R$ 401 million Ebitda in 2014
●
R$ 207 million invested in 2014
Brazil
Rio Grande
Do Sul
Metropolitan
Southern Border
Valley Region
Central
Northern Border
1 – as of December/2014. 2 – 2010-2014(e)
16
●
●
Beginning of commercial operations in 2000
Located in the State of Rio Grande do Sul – city of
Uruguaiana
●
●
Operations were suspended in 2008 due to lack of gas supply
Initiated arbitration against YPF in Argentina
– ICC¹ awarded the merits in favor of AES Uruguaiana in 2013
– Next and final phase refers to the damages calculation
●
Emergency operations in 2013, 2014 and 2015 to
support reservoirs recovery in Brazil
Looking for long-term solution
●
Fast Facts
Combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT)
1 – International Chamber of Commerce
Capacity (MW)
640 MW
Authorization expiration
2027
17
•
•
Customer-focused Company, that provides electrical
energy services
Focus on offering integrated and high-added-value
solutions to the electrical energy agents, industrial and
commercial segments, based on AES Brasil strong
capabilities and know-how
•
Main Products
- Commercial technical services
- Consulting in energy efficiency
- Construction and maintenance of substations and
transmission lines
- Commercial service: face-to-face service and debt
collection
- Affinities: insurance
•
•
Over 3 years of operation
5 major clients – AES Eletropaulo, Hebraica, Hospital
Santa Marcelina and Universidade Guarulhos
2 operational bases – cities of Barueri and São Paulo
110 vehicles
533 employees
•
•
•
18
Desafios a serem superados
18
Desafios selecionados
Plataforma iTec
● Geração de energia em UHEs de maneira mais eficiente e com melhor utilização
dos reservatórios
Hydroelectric
and Solar Plant
Renewable
Energy
● Modelos matemáticos para promover a melhoria da assertividade das previsões
de restabelecimento do fornecimento de energia oriundos de interrupções de
causas desconhecidas
● Viabilizar oportunidades de monitoramento e gestão à distância das faixas de
servidão (espaços ao redor de torres de distribuição) da AES Eletropaulo, que
contribuam para a otimização de seus custos.
● Reduzir / mitigar a inadimplência considerando o cenário atual
Comercial, Industrial and
Residential customers
19
● Viabilizar fontes alternativas de geração de energia elétrica que possam ser
aplicadas de forma ampla a unidades consumidoras de até 1MW
6
National Interconnected System
 GENERATION
Distribution
Substation
Thermal
Plant
Hydroelectric
and Solar Plant
Renewable
Energy
 DISTRIBUTION
Substation
Transformer
Substation
Transformer
TRANSMISSION
 COMERCIAL AND
INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS
 RESIDENTIAL
CUSTOMERS
11
Desafios em geração de energia
1/1
Hydroelectric and
Solar Plant
Renewable
Energy
21
6
Challenges ahead
Hydrological scenario and spot price
Historical Level of Brazilian Reservoirs (%)
Monthly Evolution of Spot Price¹ (R$/MWh) SE/CO
Max (%)
100
823
823
823
807
710
75
62
61
63
43
42
43
61
55
50
43
46
40
38
39
21
23
25
55
40
34
36
49
44
40
43
29
414 388
388 388
378
23
20
22
23
215
51
0
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Historical data since 2001
Jul
2001
Aug
2012
• 2013/2014 rainfall regimes did not
recovered Brazilian reservoirs levels
777
805
601
593
30
Jan
729
Sep
2013
Oct
Nov
2014
Dec
Jan
Feb
2015
• System is relying on thermal
generation (~17 GWavg 2014)
340
125
Mar
413
376
345
193
Apr
2012
266
208
196
121
181
May
163
291
280
261
331
183
118
91
119
Jun
Jul
Aug
2013
2014
Sep
Oct
Nov
260
Dec
2015
• AES Tietê physical guarantee is 100%
contracted until 2015; from 2016 on,
Company will have more flexibility to
manage the hydrological risk
1 – The average prices from Apr to Aug/13 were calculated based on the values of PLD1; from Sep/13 on, we calculate only the values of spot, which incorporates
the mechanisms of risk aversion to the calculation model.
24
Tight hydrology and lower system storage
capacity requires more flexible generation
Thermo São Paulo (503MW)
and Thermo Araraquara
(579MW)
Storage capacity (months)
6.2
5.7
5.4
4.6
2001
2005
2009
2013
Actual
4.4
2014
4.3
4.2
2015
2016
3.7
2019
Projection
Current contracted energy is based on renewable (mainly Wind)
and run-of-river hydro projects, which has reduced the energy
storage capacity over the recent years.
Source: ONS and AES
1 – Final data expected to be released in 3Q15
26
Aumento da Geração de Energia em UHEs
1/1
• Problema: As Usinas Hidroelétricas são estruturas
altamente intensivas de capital e customizadas à seus
projetos, com limitações para ampliação de capacidade de
geração assim como dificuldades para saltos de aumento de
performance.
• Solução: Buscamos tecnologias para aumentar geração de
energia – sejam mecanismos, softwares, equipamentos,
outras formas de utilização da água dos reservatórios, entre
outros.
• Informações adicionais:
24
•
Até R$ 2 Milhões
•
Exs: Equipamentos, Parametrizações, Processos…
•
VPL, Preço/custo da solução, ROI
8
Desafios em distribuição de energia
Comercial, Industrial and Residential customers
25
6
2014 investments focused on
system expansion and quality of service
2014 Investment
focused on
• Substation repowering
Investments (R$ million)
739
22
831
35
809
and energization adding
309MVA to the system’s
capacity
165
583
73
717
30 km of new
distribution lines
•
Maintenance in over 4.0
thousand km of the
distribution grid
•
Regularization of 42
thousand connections
796
644
510
2011
•
2012
Third party resources
2013
2014
Own resources
40
Consistent improvement in the
quality of service since 2010
●
SAIFI¹: 30% reduction in frequency of interruptions in the last 5 years
●
SAIDI²: 16% reduction in hours of interruptions in the last 5 years
SAIDI (hours)
SAIFI (times)
7.39
6.93
9.32
6.87
6.65
6.36
8.68
‐30%
5.46
2010
5.45
2011
8.49
8.29
8.35
7.99
8.86
2012
2013
2014
‐16%
4.65
4.37
3.81
2012
2013
2014
Aneel Reference
8.67
10.60
10.36
2010
2011
SAIFI
1 - System Average Interruption Frequency Index; 2 - System Average Interruption Duration Index
Aneel Reference
SAIDI
41
Efficiency in losses reduction
over the last five years
12.6
11.5
10.5
10.9
6.5
10.5
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.7
9.7
6.5
6.1
6.1
6.1
4.4
4.0
4.1
3.9
3.6
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Aneel Reference¹
Technical losses²
18% reduction in
non-technical
losses in the last 5
years and total
losses within
regulatory limits
Non-technical losses
1 – Aneel benchmark with standardized values for the calendar year; 2 - Values estimated by the Company to Aneel reference for non-technical losses of the low voltage market
42
Large and resilient concession area
Total Market1 (GWh)
45,101
45,557
46,216
46,416
8,284
7,987
8,742
8,589
36,817
37,570
37,474
37,827
2011
2012
2013
2014
Free Clients
● AES Eletropaulo concession area consists
of a mature market, representing
approx. 16% of national GDP2
● State of São Paulo’s GDP average growth
of 2.0% p.a. for the last 5 years³
Captive Market
1 – Own consumption not included; 2 – Source: IBGE, 2012; 3 – base date: 2010-2014(e)
43
Consumption expansion is mostly in
residential and commercial classes
Consumption by class1 – 2014
28%
37%
19%
32%
38%
22%
15%
9%
Brazil
Residential
1 – Own consumption not included.
AES Eletropaulo
Commercial
Industrial
Other
44
Residential Class
consumption in line with
São Paulo state real income
GWh
R$
4,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
4,000
2,100
2,000
3,500
1,900
1,800
3,000
1,700
1,600
2,500
2007
1,500
2008
2009
2010
Real Income (SP)
1 – base date: 2007-2014
2011
2012
Residential Consumption
2013
2014
Residential
consumption
per client grew
an average
of 0.9% in the
last 8 years¹
45
AES Brasil discos
among the lowest
distribution tariffs in
the country
Tariff excluding tax (R$/KWh)
Boa Vista
COELBA
CPFL Piratininga
Eletropaulo
COELCE
CPFL Paulista
CEAL
Ranking (out of 62)
0.290
1
0.352
4
0.362
7
0.372
11
0.391
13
0.403
16
0.414
ELETROACRE
0.425
CELESC
0.429
Bandeirante
0.433
18
20
23
25
AES Sul
0.460
39
RGE
0.466
40
Light
0.469
41
CEMIG
Elektro
Source: Aneel website. Tariffs as of January/2015.
0.481
0.506
46
56
62
AES distribution companies have been improving their service
level performance over the years
SAIDI ranking1
6
7
4
10
15
13
PROCON ranking2 (Eletropaulo)
3
6
12
3
17
6
20
AES Sul
8
9
AES Eletropaulo
SAIFI ranking1
3
10
4
3
1
9
18
15
2009
City ranking
State ranking
2
2010
14
2011
11
3
4
21
14
2012
2013
YTD
2014
2009
2010
2011
●
Eletropaulo had the 3rd best SAIFI in Brazil in the 3T14; AES Sul reached TOP 10 (7.38 occurences);
●
Eletropaulo had the 6th SAIDI in Brazil (8.34 hours); AES Sul with best performance in history (14.08 hours);
●
Eletropaulo had reduced amount of claims by 33.33%, from 2012 to 2013 (384 in 2013).
2012
2013
1 – X Factor: index that capture productivity gains
1- Considers distribution companies with more than 500k customers; 2- PROCON ranks companies most claimed by costumers
63 34
Abradee’s¹ Ranking
AES Eletropaulo
2007
14º
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
8º
6º
9º
8º
5º
9º
8º
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
11º
8º
6º
5º
7º
2º
16º
AES Sul
2007
10º
1 – Association of Brazilian electricity distributors
64
New distribution and sub-transmission
operations center allows efficiency gains
Modern layout maximizes the dispatch
efficiency and decision making during
the outage power restoration
●
Integration of DOC1 and SOC2 technicians
into a modern and collaborative workplace:
−
enabling to rearrange positions at any
time optimizing the use of resources
−
improving operational efficiency
−
encouraging a multifunctional profile
1 – Distribution Operating Center; 2 – Subtransmission Operating Center
65
Modern and integrated systems
contributes to the best allocation of resources
Integrated and automated systems allow the
monitoring of sub-transmission and
distribution grid and the best allocation of
resources for operational efficiency gains
●
State of the art in technologies for management of
events and teams, providing a global vision of emergency
teams location throughout the concession area;
●
Service orders transmission through data devices,
dispatching service teams that are closer to the location,
minimizing attendance time;
●
Innovative technology for forecasting and monitoring of
summer rains, strategically located in the Company’s
substations anticipating the resources allocation
66
37
Desafios em distribuição de energia
1/4
• Problema: Dificuldade de informar precisamente o tempo
para restabelecimento do fornecimentode energia aos
consumidores
• Solução: Aumentar a assertividade das previsões por meio de
avaliação de variáveis não consideradas até o momento:
Comercial, Industrial and
Residential customers
38
• Informações adicionais:
•
•
•
•
•
Estado Operacional
Ocupação de equipes
Volume de Ocorrências
Natureza do Problema
Horário da reclamação
•
•
•
•
•
Condições Climáticas
Região geográfica
Condições de Trânsito
Urbanização
Tipo de equipamento
danificado
•
Até R$ 1 Milhão
•
Exs: Modelos matemáticos, algorítmos, softwares…
•
Aumentar assertividade para 90%
•
Robustez das correlações, usabilidade, custo de
implementação, integração com SAP
6
Desafios em distribuição de energia
2/4
• Problema: Viabilização de alternativas para geração
distribuída, dado o cenário desafiador de complexidade e
frequentes mudanças regulatórias, flutuação de câmbio, entre
outros.
• Solução: Desenvolvimento de solução para a instalação de
fontes alternativas de energia no local de consumo, abaixo de
1MW.
Comercial, Industrial and
Residential customers
39
• Informações adicionais:
•
Até R$ 1 Milhão
•
Exs: Equipamentos de baixo custo viáveis para
consumidores de Baixa Renda (TSEE), Modelos de Negócios…
•
Grau de inovação, VPL>0 e TIR>20% em 24m
6
Desafios em distribuição de energia
•
•
3/4
Problema: No entanto, nem todas são economicamente viáveis, visto que o custo de sua
implementação pode, em alguns casos, superar o benefício obtido. O combate à
Inadimplência é economicamente viável até o ponto em que seus custos não superem a
receita incremental advinda de sua implementação.
Solução: Buscamos melhorar a efetividade das nossas ações com melhor razão entre
custos das ações / taxa de adimplência.
•
Comercial, Industrial and
Residential customers
Informações adicionais:
•
Até R$ 1 Milhão
•
Exs:
•
40
•
Modelos de segmentação de áreas críticas (núcleos regularizados, CDHU’s,
COHAB’s, etc.);
•
Inteligência para a logística de roteirização dos cortes;
•
Dispositivos que permitam o corte à distância em áreas críticas
•
Dispositivos de travamento/bloqueio de caixas de medição, medidores e/ou
disjuntores” que impeçam/dificultem a auto-religação após a suspensão do
fornecimento energia realizada no disjuntor ou nos terminais do medidor.
Grau de inovação, VPL>0 e TIR>20% em 24m
6
Desafios em distribuição de energia
4/4
•
Problema: As Faixas de Servidão de redes de transmissão e
distribuição de energia estão presentes em todas as metrópoles dos
países em desenvolvimento, sendo fundamentais para o transporte de
energia elétrica para os grandes centros consumidores. Estas amplas
áreas por serem pouco utilizadas para o bem social, acarretam custos
elevados em manutenção para as concessionárias de energia.
•
Comercial, Industrial and
Residential customers
41
Solução: busca-se alternativas tecnológicas viáveis socialmente
aceitáveis de monitoramento a distância para estas faixas contribuindo
com a otimização dos custos de monitoramento e manutenção.
•
Informações adicionais:
•
Até R$ 1 Milhão
•
Exs: Equipamentos de monitoramento e gestão a distância,
dispositivos de alertas, softwares…
•
Grau de inovação, Sustentabilidade, ROI
6
Desafios a serem superados
Plataforma iTec
5/5
● Geração de energia em UHEs de maneira mais eficiente e com melhor utilização
dos reservatórios
Hydroelectric
and Solar Plant
Renewable
Energy
● Modelos matemáticos para promover a melhoria da assertividade das previsões
de restabelecimento do fornecimento de energia oriundos de interrupções de
causas desconhecidas
● Viabilizar oportunidades de monitoramento e gestão à distância das faixas de
servidão (espaços ao redor de torres de distribuição) da AES Eletropaulo, que
contribuam para a otimização de seus custos.
● Reduzir / mitigar a inadimplência considerando o cenário atual
Comercial, Industrial and
Residential customers
42
● Viabilizar fontes alternativas de geração de energia elétrica que possam ser
aplicadas de forma ampla a unidades consumidoras de até 1MW
6
Anexos
Brazil remains as one of the most relevant economy
in Latin America with plenty growth opportunities
● Brazil represented 38%
of Latin America’s
2013 GDP
● Brazil is expected to
contribute with ~33% of
Latin America’s growth
from 2013-2018¹
● Brazil has ~200 million
inhabitants²
Latin America GDP
| USDm, in nominal terms
7,427
403
5,774
127
126
104
95
258
540
38%
38%
Latin America 2013
Brazil
Mexico Colombia
1 – International Monetary Fund; 2 – Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2014)
Brazil
Chile
Argentica
Others
Peru
Other
Latin America 2018
55
Infrastructure investments are required
for Brazil development
Value of infrastructure assets1
(% of GDP, 2013)
80
76
65
58
55
16
Italy
China
USA
India
UK
Brazil
GDP growth is associated to investments in infrastructure,
mainly energy and logistics (highways, roads, ports and airports)
1 – McKinsey Global Institute analysis (2013)
56
… and generation –
Brazilian Energy Matrix and perspectives
Brazilian Energy Matrix¹
Governmental Expansion Plan
196
13%
21%
125
133
8
142
17
125
2014
156
148
167
71
24
31
42
125
125
125
125
125
2015
2016
2017
2018
2023
66%
2013
Hydro
Renewable³
Thermal ●
Energy matrix based on hydropower plants
●
Thermal source is responsible for system reliability
Additional Capacity by PDE²
●
Current Installed Capacity
Expansion based mainly on renewable and run-of-river
hydropower plants
1 – ANEEL database (01/14/2015). 2 – Energy development plan (PDE 2013-2023); 3 – Includes Biomass, Wind and Solar sources
57
46