Challenges and Opportunities to Renewables and Energy Efficiency

Challenges and Opportuni2es to Renewables and Energy Efficiency in Brazil Cris2ano Prado Execu2ve Director Brazilian Associa2on of Engineering Consultants What you already know: Brazil has a clean eletricity matrix... Share of Renewables in Electricity Genera5on in the Leading Economies Figures refer to 2011. Source: “The Brazilian Conundrum: More Hydropower, Greater Greenhouse Gas Emissions” ...mostly based on hydroeletrical power plants Itaipu hydroeletrical power plant But Brazil is moving from hydropower to “termohydro” power Wind Thermoelectric Thermoelectric Wind 2010 Hydroeletric Source: ONS, 2014 2014 Hydroeletric And It is a structural movement: All H.E . power plants under construc2on are “Run of River” ⇒  Smaller flood area ⇒  Small reservoir Consequence #1: New H.E. Power plants will not generate energy in the dry season. Others sources will need to complement the genera2on And It is a structural movement: Consequence #2: Loss of Regulariza2on Capacity Source: “The Brazilian Conundrum: More Hydropower, Greater Greenhouse Gas Emissions” And It is a structural movement: Consequence #2’: DRAMATIC loss of Regulariza2on Capacity Reservoirs Storage Levels
Average (66.6%)
Highest (88.8%)
Full (100%)
Effective Regularization Capacity (months)
2001
2013
2022*
4.18
5.57
6.27
3.20
4.27
4.81
2.20
2.93
3.30
Source: The Brazilian Conundrum: More Hydropower, Greater Greenhouse Gas Emissions => Either the Na2onal Operator (ONS) will accept the higher risk of water shortage or will increase other sources genera2on to raise the average storage levels Other source(s) of energy genera2on (ex-­‐hydro) will necessarily increase. Which one(s)? Wind Thermoelectric 2014 Hydroeletric Source: ONS, 2014 Brazil’s skyrocke2ng energy price * estimate. Source: How much does the eletric energy for the Brazilian industry cost? (Quanto custa a energia elétrica para a indústria no Brasil – www.quantocustaenergia.com.br)
Brazil’s skyrocke2ng energy price Electric energy cost for the industry – selected countries
(March 2015) US$/MWh
1.5 x 3.8 x 2.5 x International average
146.4 US$/MWh
Source: How much does the eletric energy for the Brazilian industry cost? (Quanto custa a energia elétrica para a indústria no Brasil – www.quantocustaenergia.com.br)
Consider: •  Thermoeletrical (fossil) energy genera2on is 5,6 2mes more expensive than hydroletrical genera2on. GHG emissions are infinitely higher •  Energy cost is reaching prohibi2ve levels in Brazil – and will con2nue to climb in next years •  COP 21 effects • The label of green electricity matrix is valuable for the country •  Na2onal incen2ves to increase wind genera2on and distributed genera2on Brazil: Installed wind power capacity 24,000* MW 8,400 MW 1,000 MW 602 MW 22 MW 2003 2009 2011 2015 2024 * Es2mate. Source: Aneel 2016 Brazil: Distributed energy # of grid connec2ons 3
Dec.12
75 Dec, 13
424 Dec. 14
1,747 Dec. 15
2,207 Fev. 16
2019
200,000* 1,200,000* 2024
Source: Aneel 2016 Global Energy Efficiency Ranking (23 countries) Brazil is on the verge of a “Big Bang” in renewables and efficiency energy Thank you Cris2ano Prado Execu2ve Director Brazilian Associa2on of Engineering Consultants crprado@abceconsultoria.org.br