SWURVE PROJECT PARTNERS UK

http://www.ncl.ac.uk/swurve/
EXTREME RAINFALL AND
FLOOD RISK IN THE UK
SWURVE PROJECT PARTNERS
Increasing flood risk may be one of the largest threats from climate
change. Recent severe flooding in the UK has focused attention on
perceived increases in rainfall intensities.
There have been significant changes to the timing and occurrence of
multi-day intense rainfall events over the past decade, with the
magnitude of multi-day extreme rainfall increasing two-fold over parts
of the UK since the 1960s.
Annual recurrence probabilities are quadrupled in some regions, with
intensities previously experienced every 25 years now occurring at
six-yearly intervals. Climate model projections also show these same
patterns.
There have also been changes in timing, with extreme events now
predominating in autumn months.
Comparison of estimates of 10-day duration, 25-year return period (or an annual chance of occurrence of 4%) rainfall event for both observed and regional
climate model data
EC Framework V Project EVK1-CT2000-00075
COORDINATION
University of Newcastle upon Tyne
Chris Kilsby, Dr H. J. Fowler
Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory
School of Civil Engineering
and Geosciences
University of Newcastle upon Tyne
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 7RU
United Kingdom
e-mail c.g.kilsby@ncl.ac.uk
h.j.fowler@ncl.ac.uk
fax +44 191 222 6669
tel +44 191 222 5614
PARTNERS
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Dr T. A. Buishand, Dr G. Lenderink
KNMI
PO Box 201, De Bilt, 3730 AE
The Netherlands
e-mail buishand@knmi.nl
lenderin@knmi.nl
fax +31 302 210407
tel +31 302 206450
Observed
1961–1990
HadRM3 control
(1961–1990)
scenario,
ensemble mean
Observed
1991–2000
HadRM3 future
(2070–2100)
scenario,
ensemble mean
Rainfall (mm)
no data
100 – 120
120 – 140
140 – 160
160 – 180
180 – 200
200 – 220
220 – 240
240 – 260
260 – 280
University of East Anglia
Prof P.D. Jones, Dr M. Ekström
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia, University Plain
Norwich NR4 7TJ
United Kingdom
e-mail p.jones@uea.ac.uk
m.ekstrom@uea.ac.uk
fax +44 1603 507784
tel +44 1603 592090
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Prof A. Musy, Dr B. Hingray,
N. Mouhous, B. Schäfli, N. Mouhous
SIE, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Gr-Ecublens
Lausanne 1015
Switzerland
e-mail andre.musy@epfl.ch
benoit.hingray@epfl.ch
nassima.mouhous@epfl.ch
bettina.schaefli@epfl.ch
fax +41 21 693 37 39
tel +41 21 693 37 25
Instituto de Ciência Aplicada e Tecnologia
Prof J. Corte-Real, M. Bernardin, Q. Budong
ICAT
Universidade de Lisboa
Campo Grande
1749-016 Lisboa
Portgual
e-mail jcr@fc.ul.pt; jmcr@uevora.pt
msvhcb@fc.ul.pt
fax +351 266 745 300
tel +351 266 202 306
S USTAINABLE WATER : U N C E R TA I N T Y, R I S K A N D V U L N E R A B I L I T Y I N E U R O P E
Background, Aims and Deliverables
Examining the effects of changing water flow and water temperature
on Atlantic salmon by:
• examining how
predicted regional
climate changes
could impact on
the River Eden
catchment using
the latest Hadley
Centre Regional
Climate Model
(HadRM3) data;
METHODS
AIM
To study the impacts of climate variability and change
on the sustainable use of water and its related activities
in Europe by using the following objectives:
• Assessment of risks to hydrologic and hydraulic
systems posed by climate variability and change;
• Assessment of vulnerability in terms of operation as
well as economic, ecological and social costs;
• Research into methods of mitigating possible effects
of climate change on system vulnerability;
• Account for uncertainty due to natural variability and
error due to incomplete knowledge of future conditions.
Present
Time series
inputs
Hydrologic
model
Time series
outputs
The project aims to use assessments which incorporate the
uncertainty, errors and natural variability of future hydrological
scenarios in a statistical framework that will allow operators
and agencies to make decisions based on quantitative
probabilities and risks.
An easily understood and transferable set of quantitative
indices of reliability, resilience and vulnerability will be applied
to a range of water related problems.
APPLICATION SECTORS
Regional
climate
pdf
Hydrologic
model
Water resources
Combined sewer overflows
Sustainability
Performance
(RRV)
Time series
outputs
• water supply and
regulation;
• transnational river
basins;
• hydroelectric power
generation;
• maintenance of lake
levels and flows;
• viability of river
transport;
• flood risk
and economic
consequences;
• salmon fisheries;
• combined sewer
overflows and
water quality.
Salmon fisheries
Transnational basins
Future 1
Emissions 1
Future 2
Emissions 2 GCMs
Time series
inputs
Future 3
Emissions 3
Emissions 4
Downscaling Future 4
Emission
scenario
pdf
CASE STUDY: THE RIVER EDEN
River navigation
Flood risk
Hydropower
Impacts and
Performance
(RRV)
Water resources
Rainfall
Discharge
pdf
pdf
Probabilistic framework covering
full range of scenarios
Irrigation
Impacts
Uncertainty
Sustainability
RRV
Hydropower
CASE STUDY: JURA LAKE SYSTEM
This is a system of three interconnected lakes (Neuchâtel, Bienne and
Morat) located in western Switzerland formed 15,000 years ago by
the retreat of the Rhine glaciers. Climate change may alter the annual
evolution of the lake levels, causing the following impacts:
• high water levels: flooding/water-logging of agricultural and urban
areas
• low water levels: insufficient water for agriculture, reduction in
hydropower production, inappropriate conditions for riparian flora
and fauna
Each interest group defines an optimum and critical low- or high-water
levels. A failure can therefore occur for one group and not for the
others. Meteorological and hydrological data will be used to simulate
climate change impacts on the management of the lake system, and
determine the likelihood and frequency of any failure.
• linking hydrological
data to ecological
data – determining
current relationship
between water
temperature and
salmon population;
• modelling the effects
of predicted climate
change on the
temperature
tolerances
of salmon.
CASE STUDY: THE RHINE BASIN
The Rhine basin (185,000 km2) stretches from the Alps to the North
Sea and has the world’s highest traffic density for inland waterways.
Its water is used for domestic consumption, irrigation, the hydropower
industry and prevention of salt-water intrusion in the low-land areas.
N
Outlet
Aare
0
15
km
30
• determining the
significance of the
flow volume to water
temperature
relationships;
This Case Study will investigate the
effect of changes in temperature
and precipitation on flow using a
water-balance approach. Precipitation and temperature data will
be taken from HadRM3. Statistical downscaling will be used as a
supplementary tool.
Climate-related changes in
streamflow, water availability and
frequency and magnitude of
peak discharges will affect all
river-related activities, as well as
flood defence structures such as
dykes.