ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and Regional Implications

ISIS Growing Influence in South Asia and
Regional Implications
Abdul Basit
Associate Research Fellow A(RF)
International Centre for Political Violence and
Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), RSIS
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
18 February 2015
Overview
•
What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS)?
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
•
Background. .
Militant Islamist Groups Allied with ISIS.
Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks.
No. of Foreign Fighters.
Latest Updates of Foreign Fighters.
ISIS Influence in South Asia:
i. Trends in South Asia
ii. Why South Asia?
iii. Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by Islamist Militant Groups.
iv. ISIS Support Base in India.
v. ISIS Cell in Af-Pak.
vi. ISIS Four-pronged Strategy for South Asia.
vii. Terrorism Consortium in South Asia.
viii. 3 Models of Jihad in South Asia.
ix. AQIS vs ISIS.
x. What does it all mean for South Asia?
:
Major Questions
• Will ISIS pick a bone with Pakistan given the fact that Pakistan is not part of
the US-led anti ISIS coalition?
• Is the group or its local affiliates capable of doing it?
• What is the magnitude of ISIS footprint in South Asia, in general, and
Pakistan in particular?
• How the South Asian Islamist Militant Organizations have reacted to ISIS
Growing Influence?
• What does it all mean for South Asia, in general, and Pakistan in particular?
:
What is the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham
(Dawlat al-ʿIrāq al-ʾIslāmiyyah, IS) ?
•
The most powerful and wealthy Islamist Militant Group.
•
New-school of Jihadist setting new trends of the modern terrorist
iconography.
•
Post 9/11, the only group to occupy a territory size of a of a state.
•
Financially self-sufficient
•
Possesses the largest number of foreign fighters in its rank, including
females.
•
A contestant and claimant to leadership of Global Jihad.
Background
(1). Jamaat Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad (19992004)
(2). Al-Qaeda in the Land of Two
Rivers ( 2004-06)
:
(3). Majlis Shura Al-Mujahideen
(MSM, 2006)
(4). Islamic State of Iraq (2006-13)
(5). Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS, 2013Present)
Groups Allied with ISIS
Libya
Indonesia
•
•
Ansar Al-Shariah
Islamic Youth Shura Council
Nigeria
Boko Haram
Abu Bakar Bashir
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Salafai Taliban
Islamic
State
•Jandullah
•Shahidulah Shahid Group
•Tehrik-e-Khilafat
•Jamia Hafsa Students
Uzbekistan
Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan (IMU)
Egypt
Philippines
Moro Islamic Liberation
Front (MILF)
•Gamah Islamiyah
•Ansar Bait-ul-Maqdis
Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks
•
Over 15,000 foreign fighters from 80 countries.
•
Second largest congregation of foreign fighters since the
Afghan Jihad (1979-88).
•
Five largest contributors of foreign fighters are; Jordan
(2,089), Saudi Arabia (1,016), Tunisia (970), Lebanon
(890), and Libya (556).
•
The number of fighters from Western Europe is around
1,937, 17 percent of foreign fighters population.
•
The most important regions for foreign fighter
recruitment outside Western Europe and the Middle East
are the Balkans and the countries of the former Soviet
Union.
Source: http://soufangroup.com/wpcontent/uploads/2014/10/Foreign-fighters-flow-to-Syria.jpg
No. of Foreign Fighters in ISIS Ranks
Latest Updates of ISIS Foreign Fighters
•
The daily flow of foreign fighters has gone down from the
peak 80-100 per day to a low of 10-15.
•
On 1 December 2014, an Indian foreign fighter, Areeb
Majeed, who returned to India revealed he cleaned toilets for
ISIS.
•
“ On 18 December 2014, ISIS executed 150 female in Iraq’s
“I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.”
Fallujah province for refusing to accept jihad marriage.”
Source:http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle(Source:http://www.teaparty.org/isis-executes-150-womeneast/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-exgirls-pregnant-refusing-become-sex-slaves-marry-jihadistsfighter.html
73127/)
•
•
On 20 December 2014, ISIS executed 100 fighters for trying
to flee Syria.
Trends in South Asia
•
The national governments downplay the threat while
certain pressure/ groups and vested interests overexaggerate the threat.
•
The trend varies across South Asia countries.
•
In Afghanistan and Pakistan it is confined to Salafist and
Panjpiri pockets of militant groups.
•
In India, it is lone-wolf behavior of self-radicalized
individuals and group differential behavior.
•
In Bangladesh most of the individuals from the
Bangladeshi diaspora community have joined ISIS ranks.
Pakistan Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali
Khan rules out the presence of the Islamic
State (IS) in the country.
Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1143943
Source:
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014
-10-14/news/55014486_1_jammu-and-kashmirisis-omar-abdullah
No. of Foreign Fighters who Joined ISIS from South Asia
:
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/RahulBhonsle/estimate-south-asian-fighters-insyria-and-iraq
Why South Asia?
•
Ideological Factor: (Black Flags of Khurasan)
•
Social Factor: Conducive environment for incubation
of Extremist Ideologies and Physical (ungoverned spaces)
and Social Sanctuaries (youth vulnerable to extremist
propaganda).
•
Political Factor: Al-Qaeda’s Power-base.
Three Broad Reactions to ISIS Influence by
Islamist Militant Groups
•
Open Rejection: ( Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Kashmir Jihadi
Groups and TTP Core)
•
Jumping ISIS Bandwagon: (Jandullah, Tehrik-e-Khilafat and
Shahidullah Shahid Group)
•
Fence-sitting Behaviour: (Hizb-e-Islami Gulbadin and Jamatul-Ahrar etc. )
ISIS Support Base in India
•
•
Lone Wolf and self-radicalized individuals: Mahdi Masroor
(Social Media Operative) and Areeb Majeed who went to Iraq and
later escaped
No groups-level presence
•
Ansar al-Tawhid Fi-Bilad Al-Hind has pledged allegiance to ISIS
•
The activities are restricted to social media activism, flags and
pro-ISIS banners
•
For the first time, Indian Muslims have responded to
an extremist-terrorist organization in such a way
The trends in South, Central and North India are uniform
•
“I’m a soldier, I have no regrets”
Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Im-a-soldier-Ihave-no-regrets-says-ISIS-Twitter-handler-Mehdi-MasroorBiswas/articleshow/45567376.cms
“I cleaned toilets for ISIS in Iraq.”
Source:http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middleeast/2014/12/01/I-cleaned-toilets-for-ISIS-reveals-exfighter.html
ISIS Cell in Af-Pak
SAEED KHAN (ORAKZAI)
Khalid
Mansour
(Hangu,
KP)
Dawlat
(Kurram
Agency)
Sa’ad alEmarati
(Sa’ad Abi
Waqas – Logar
province,
Afghanistan)
Muhsin
(Kunar
province,
Afghanistan)
Gul
Zamam
(Khyber
Agency)
Omar
Mansour
(Masjid
Ahmar)
Saeed
Khan
(Orakzai
Agency)
Mufti
Hassan
(Peshawar)
Obeidaullah
Peshawari
(Tawhid wal
Jihad Peshawar)
Jawad
(AbtalulIslam)
Talha
(Murat)
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_showing_NWFP_and_FATA.
ISIS Four-pronged Strategy in South Asia
Terrorism Consortium in South Asia
3-Models of Jihadi in South Asia
Al Qaeda -Ghazwa-e-Hind
Afghan Taliban Emirate
ISIS-Caliphate
AQIS vs ISIS
• Consolidate existing
network, then expand
• Exploit Brand
• Expand Network
• Contain ISIS
• Support Affiliates
• Exploit Local Issues
• Look for new recruits
& affiliates
• Indoctrinate through
Propaganda
What does ISIS threat mean for South Asia?
•Polarized and complicated militancy-landscape.
•Ideological and operational transformations among the Jihadist groups.
•New narratives and deeper penetration of the Salafi Jihadist Ideology.
•Cyber radicalization.
•Difficulties in Lawn enforcement and security maintenance.
Thank You