Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Roadmap

EV/PHEV roadmap milestones
2010
2020
2030
2040
Vehicle sales 7 million
Global market share 9%
Vehicle sales 30 million
Global market share 30%
2050
Vehicle sales 70 million
Global market share 48%
Vehicle sales 100 million
Global market share 60%
Policy framework
Adequate incentives for EV/PHEV purchase
and production in line with targets;
co-ordination of recharging infrastructure
development in key areas
EVs should become commercially viable
without significant subsidies; support should
continue for widespread expansion of
recharching infrastructure
Fast recharging options have achieved
lower cost, with batteries well suited;
support for widespread implementation
of fast recharging as needed to ensure
widespread availability
Availability of higher power/energy-dense
batteries should position policy makers to
encourage remaining segments of light-duty
vehicle markets to “go electric”, including
greater use in larger, longer-distance vehicles
Vehicles become fully commercial, batteries
reach all target specifications for cost and
durability, including additional cycling
tolerance in line with advanced batteries;
full recycling systems in place
Batteries continue to improve; introduce
a new generation of batteries that
significantly outperform lithium-ion at a
similar cost
EVs achieve superiority to internal
combustion engines in most respects,
close the gap in driving range
Common systems for vehicle-to-grid electricity
sales, fast recharge and/or battery swapping
well established
Refine codes and standards as needed;
modify to accommodate innovations in batteries, smart grid systems, etc.,
but minimise the need for reinvestments in existing systems
Expansion of recharging infrastructure to more
areas; greater use of fast recharging; fully
established vehicle-to-grid electricity systems
Completion of most recharging infrastructure
in OECD and other major economies; expand
globally as countries establish reliable, lowcarbon electricity generation systems
Ongoing recharging infrastructure and
generation system expansion and refinement
as needed; with ongoing increase in systems
and capacity to handle fast charging
Continue RD&D on advanced battery
designs moving towards demonstration and
deployment as concepts mature; incorporate
lessons learned from earlier experiences
Achieve widespread introduction of next
generation of battery, full deployment of
smart-grid systems and related technologies
Ongoing RD&D as needed;
focus on improving battery performance to
maximise vehicle driving range
Vehicles/batteries
Low- and medium-volume production, with
design optimisations to 2015,
then rapidly increase numbers of models offered
and average production volumes;
battery and other costs decline to target levels
Codes/standards
Ensure plugs and charging systems
are compatible across major regions,
including basic “smart metering” systems
for home and public recharging stations;
develop protocols for fast recharging
Recharging/electricity infrastructure
Establish home recharging and begin
major investments in street/office daytime
commercial recharging, including rapid
charging where appropriate
RD&D
Ensure vehicle/battery systems are reliable
and safe; achieve near-term technical and cost
targets, such as USD 300/kWh battery cost;
develop advanced battery concepts
and prototypes
International Energy Agency
www.iea.org/roadmaps
■ H2 hybrid fuel cell
■ Conventional diesel
■ CNG/LPG
■ Hybrid (gasoline)
ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN■ Electric
HYBRID VEHICLE
roadmap
■ Plug-in hybrid gasoline
■ Plug-in hybrid
diesel sales,
■ Conventional gasoline
Annual light-duty
vehicle
■ Diesel
hybrid 2000-2050
BLUE Map
scenario,
Passenger LDV Sales (million)
180
160
140
Diesel hybrid
120
100
CNG/LPG
H2 hybrid fuel cell
l
diese
Conventional
80
60
rid (
Conventional gasoline
20
ybr
Plug
Hyb
40
Electric
Plug
-in h
gaso
-in h
line)
id d
ybri
iese
d ga
l
solin
e
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Key findings
uu In addition to contributing significant greenhouse-gas emissions reductions,
the roadmap’s level of EV/PHEV sales will deliver substantial benefits in terms
of improved oil security, reduced urban area pollution and noise.
uu Policy support is critical, especially in two areas: ensuring vehicles become
cost-competitive and providing adequate recharging infrastructure.
uu The consumer comes first: wider use of EVs/PHEVs will require an improved
understanding of consumer needs and desires, as well as consumer
willingness to change vehicle purchase and travel behaviour.
uu Performance measurement will be needed: the IEA roadmap contains a set of
proposed metrics and targets for key attributes like driving range and battery
requirements to ensure that EVs/PHEVs achieve their potential.
uu RD&D priorities: research, development and demonstration must continue to
reduce battery costs and ensure adequate materials supply. More research is
also needed on smart grids and the vehicle-grid interface.
uu International collaboration can accelerate deployment: industry and
governments need to work together on research programmes, codes and
standards, and alignment of vehicle and infrastructure roll-out.
© OECD/IEA, 2010
uu Roadmap vision: industry and governments should attain a combined
EV/PHEV sales share of at least 50% of LDV sales worldwide by 2050.
10 000
10 000
8 000
8 000
0
2 000
140
2015
2030
0
2050
Total sales (thousands)
6 400
4 700
4 000
260
150
2 000
3 100
2 100
4 000
6 000
2 000
3 800
6 000
EV sales
Total sales (thousands)
5 900
Total sales (thousands)
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
170
Urgent action needed in the next 10 years
to achieve 2050 targets
8 800
10 000
2015
2030
0
2050
2
PHEV sales
52 200
49 100
49 100
52 200
Total sales (thousands)
19 900
1 900
16 500
600
50
30
24 600
1 300
2 400
1 900
700
24 600
70
140
3 900
1 600
2030
2030
2050
2050
9 300
9 300
16 500
EV/PHEV sales must reach
substantial levels by 2015,
and rise rapidly thereafter in
order to achieve 2050 CO2
reduction targets. Sales are
expected to spread to nonOECD regions over time.
19 900
2015
Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
3 100
10
2015
40
6 400
4 700
24 600
2 000
3 900
10 000
All other8 000
O
2015
2050
600
6 000
9 300
8 800
0
4 000
2 000
2 000
0
3 800
900
500
2 000
6 000
4 000
6.0
2015
1 600
2030
4 000
8 000
6 000
2030
2050
2015
2030
n
0
tio
ibu
EV contr
2015
2030
2050
2050
3 800
0
6 000
40
2050
2015
Total sales (thousands)
10 000
10 000
8 000
Total sales (thousands)
8 600
8 000
2030
0
2 100
Other (conventio
nal efficiency,
fuel cell vehicles,
mix shift)
2 000
3
150
2
0
1
2015
2030
2050
0.8
0
2030
Conventional diesel
Conventional gasoline
2005
2015
2030
2050
OECD Europe
1 000
OECD Pacific
800
Former Soviet Union
600
Eastern Europe
China
400
Other Asia
200
India
CNG/LPG fuels
Biofuels
0
OECD North America
Middle East
0
Latin America
2005
2030
2050
China
Baseline
2030
2050
BLUE
Africa
World
10 000
8 000
www.iea.org/roadmaps
© OECD/IEA, 2010
Electricity
1 200
11 400
Hydrogen
GTL and CTL
500
2050
9 400
1 000
2045
6 200
1 500
BLUE Map
2 000
Baseline
BLUE Map
2 500
2040
Less carbon-intensive electricity is needed
to realise EV/PHEV emissions reductions
Baseline
Final energy consumption in the
transportation sector, by fuel type
2035
nds)
For light-duty vehicles, electric and plug-in
hybrid vehicles account for 2.6 Gt of CO2equivalent emissions reductions by 2050,
about half of total reductions for light-duty
vehicles.
2025
Baseline
BLUE Map
The GHG reductions and EV/PHEV
penetrations displayed here are based on
the IEA ETP BLUE Map scenario, which
targets an aggressive 50% reduction in
CO2 worldwide by 2050 relative to 2005
levels. For transport, a 30% GHG reduction
is targeted, which will require rapid market
penetration of electric vehicles and plug-in
hybrid vehicles.
2020
Carbon intensity of
electricity (gCO2/kWh)
2015
Billion litres gasoline-equivalent
2010
9 600
49 100
2 400
1 900
1 300
8 600
70
Total sales (thousands)
19 900
16 500
9 600
8 600
170
140
1 900
1 600
40
700
9 400
6 200
2 200
150
16 500
600
50
3 900
10
140
3 100
1 300
2 400
1 900
700
100
1 300
19 900
Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
4 000
50
100
0
PHEV contribution (from electricity)
PHEV contribution4(fr
000
om liquid fuel efficiency)
3.1
0
2050
260
4
2 000
10 000
6 000
2 000
5
4 000
2 000
4 000
2050
6 000
5800900
10
2050
4 000
OECD North America
8 000
4 000
150
2030
6 000
0
2 000
2015
6 000
2 000
2030
8 000
500
2 000
2050
10 000
6 000
2015
10 000
Total sales (thousands)
4 000
8 000
India
2030
8 000
4 000
8 000
1 900
6 000
2030
10 000
10 000
2050
6 000
10 000
2050
PHEV
sales
2030
All other
OECD Pacific
800
2015
2030
0
EV sales
500
0
Total
11 sales
400 (thousands)
6 400
4 700
2 000
140
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
30
2015
4 000
8 000
0
140
Total
70 sales (thousands)
1 900
700
140
70
8 800
5 900
600
50
2 100
0
2050
10 000
6
2 400
Total sales (thousands)
3 100
Total sales (thousands)
11 400
260 9 600
2 200
7
2 000
China
2030
CO2 emission reduction, BLUE Map scenario, 2010-2050
Global emissions (Gt CO2)
1 900
3
8 900
600
1 600
2015
4 000
6 000
2 000
2015
8 000
2050
2050
30
0
2050
2050
10 000
All other
2015
2030
Total sales (thousands)
2030
2030
2050
2015
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
2015
30
150
100
2 000
0
30
40
2015
2030
0
6 000
1 600
4 000
0
9 400 10
11 400
40
2 000
2050
150
100
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
2 200
2030
2050
0
2015
0
9 400
16 500
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
9 400
11 400
6 200
9 600
8 600
11 400
9 400
2015
2030
2 000
8 000
2030
4 000
2 8000
000
2050
6 200
4 000
2 000
6 000
10 000
India
2 000
2 000
6 000
2 000
All other
2050
2015
410000
000
2 200
2050
4 000
2030
6 000
All other
2030
0
8 000
8 000
4 000
2050
2050
10 000
10 000
2015
1 900
2030
0
2015
0
4 000
8 000
2015
Total sales (thousands)
2015
2 000
2 000
6 000
6 000 0
6 000
10 000
10
0
India
600
2020
0
50
2 000
000
8 2000
4 000
India
4 000
2 000
6 000
OECD Europe
2030
6 000
0
2050
2 000 2030
2015
2015
6 000
000
10 4000
8 000
4 000
600
100 6 200
1 900
150
2 200
4 000
8 000
50
4 000
6 000
6 000
India
All other
10 000
Total sales (thousands)
Vehicle sales must grow rapidly
2015
8 000
2 200
2012
8 000
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
2010
10 000
6 000
10 000
150
0
10 000
China
6 000
100
10
6 200
8 000
20
China
Total sales (thousands)
10 000
India
30
PHEV models
9 400
China
Total sales (thousands)
Number of models
30
11 400
8 000
170
3 800
6 400
3 100
8 000
10 000
Number of models offered through 2020
EV models
0
4 000
2 000
2050
10 000
8 000 2030
2015
4 000
OECD North America
0
2030
China
40
0
6 000
2 000
Total sales (thousands)
2015
Total sales (thousands)
5 900
2 100
4 700
260
400
22
000
1 300
1 900
6 400
PHEV sales
10 000
6 000
2050
150
8 600
0
2050
2030
2050
EV sales
8 000
8 000
China
OECD Pacific
19 900
2 000
2030
2015
2030
4 000
10
000
2
8 000
000
2050
10 000
170
140
0
2015
0
2050 4 000
700
4140
700
2 000
2 000
6 000
6 000
OECD Pacific
6 200
2015
150
Total sales (thousands)
4 000
140
150
0
Total sales (thousands)
8 800
2015 2050
2030
2030
2030
9 600
2 000
3 800
Total sales (thousands)
5 900
6 400
2 1003 100
8 800
4 700
0
2015
2 000
2015
6 000 0
70
0
4 000
6 000
10 000
4 000
8 000
260
2 000
150 5 900
2 000
2 000
6 000
2 000
8 000
170
2050
4 000
4 000
10 000
OECD Europe
Total sales (thousands)
2030
4 000
8 000
6 000
3 800
0
Battery costs for PHEVs and EVs must drop 2015
rapidly toward USD 300/kWh in order to bring
vehicle costs to competitive levels.
10 000
8 000
2 100
3 800
2 100
2020
2 000
150
2015
4 000
6 000
10 000
260
0
2010
Total sales (thousands)
6 000
Target cost
170
200
OECD North America
6 000
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
8 000
8 000
140
8 000
10 000
PHEV sales
Total sales (thousands)Total sales (thousands)
400
EV 000
sales
10
8 800
10 000
5 900
600
8 000
8 000
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD North America
Total sales (thousands)
Cost (USD/kWh)
800
10 000
3 800
Electric and plug-in hybridPHEV sales
vehicle indicative sales targets in
BLUE Map scenario
PHEV sales
Expected cost
260
1 000
8 800
EV sales
EV sales
OECD Pacific
10 000
9 600
Global map of regional EV/PHEV sales
10 000
52 200
OECD Europe
OECD North America
Battery costs through 2020
10 000
10 000
8 000
8 000
0
2 000
140
2015
2030
0
2050
Total sales (thousands)
6 400
4 700
4 000
260
150
2 000
3 100
2 100
4 000
6 000
2 000
3 800
6 000
EV sales
Total sales (thousands)
5 900
Total sales (thousands)
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
170
Urgent action needed in the next 10 years
to achieve 2050 targets
8 800
10 000
2015
2030
0
2050
2
PHEV sales
52 200
49 100
49 100
52 200
Total sales (thousands)
19 900
1 900
16 500
600
50
30
24 600
1 300
2 400
1 900
700
24 600
70
140
3 900
1 600
2030
2030
2050
2050
9 300
9 300
16 500
EV/PHEV sales must reach
substantial levels by 2015,
and rise rapidly thereafter in
order to achieve 2050 CO2
reduction targets. Sales are
expected to spread to nonOECD regions over time.
19 900
2015
Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
3 100
10
2015
40
6 400
4 700
24 600
2 000
3 900
10 000
All other8 000
O
2015
2050
600
6 000
9 300
8 800
0
4 000
2 000
2 000
0
3 800
900
500
2 000
6 000
4 000
6.0
2015
1 600
2030
4 000
8 000
6 000
2030
2050
2015
2030
n
0
tio
ibu
EV contr
2015
2030
2050
2050
3 800
0
6 000
40
2050
2015
Total sales (thousands)
10 000
10 000
8 000
Total sales (thousands)
8 600
8 000
2030
0
2 100
Other (conventio
nal efficiency,
fuel cell vehicles,
mix shift)
2 000
3
150
2
0
1
2015
2030
2050
0.8
0
2030
Conventional diesel
Conventional gasoline
2005
2015
2030
2050
OECD Europe
1 000
OECD Pacific
800
Former Soviet Union
600
Eastern Europe
China
400
Other Asia
200
India
CNG/LPG fuels
Biofuels
0
OECD North America
Middle East
0
Latin America
2005
2030
2050
China
Baseline
2030
2050
BLUE
Africa
World
10 000
8 000
www.iea.org/roadmaps
© OECD/IEA, 2010
Electricity
1 200
11 400
Hydrogen
GTL and CTL
500
2050
9 400
1 000
2045
6 200
1 500
BLUE Map
2 000
Baseline
BLUE Map
2 500
2040
Less carbon-intensive electricity is needed
to realise EV/PHEV emissions reductions
Baseline
Final energy consumption in the
transportation sector, by fuel type
2035
nds)
For light-duty vehicles, electric and plug-in
hybrid vehicles account for 2.6 Gt of CO2equivalent emissions reductions by 2050,
about half of total reductions for light-duty
vehicles.
2025
Baseline
BLUE Map
The GHG reductions and EV/PHEV
penetrations displayed here are based on
the IEA ETP BLUE Map scenario, which
targets an aggressive 50% reduction in
CO2 worldwide by 2050 relative to 2005
levels. For transport, a 30% GHG reduction
is targeted, which will require rapid market
penetration of electric vehicles and plug-in
hybrid vehicles.
2020
Carbon intensity of
electricity (gCO2/kWh)
2015
Billion litres gasoline-equivalent
2010
9 600
49 100
2 400
1 900
1 300
8 600
70
Total sales (thousands)
19 900
16 500
9 600
8 600
170
140
1 900
1 600
40
700
9 400
6 200
2 200
150
16 500
600
50
3 900
10
140
3 100
1 300
2 400
1 900
700
100
1 300
19 900
Total EV + PHEV global vehicle sales
4 000
50
100
0
PHEV contribution (from electricity)
PHEV contribution4(fr
000
om liquid fuel efficiency)
3.1
0
2050
260
4
2 000
10 000
6 000
2 000
5
4 000
2 000
4 000
2050
6 000
5800900
10
2050
4 000
OECD North America
8 000
4 000
150
2030
6 000
0
2 000
2015
6 000
2 000
2030
8 000
500
2 000
2050
10 000
6 000
2015
10 000
Total sales (thousands)
4 000
8 000
India
2030
8 000
4 000
8 000
1 900
6 000
2030
10 000
10 000
2050
6 000
10 000
2050
PHEV
sales
2030
All other
OECD Pacific
800
2015
2030
0
EV sales
500
0
Total
11 sales
400 (thousands)
6 400
4 700
2 000
140
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
30
2015
4 000
8 000
0
140
Total
70 sales (thousands)
1 900
700
140
70
8 800
5 900
600
50
2 100
0
2050
10 000
6
2 400
Total sales (thousands)
3 100
Total sales (thousands)
11 400
260 9 600
2 200
7
2 000
China
2030
CO2 emission reduction, BLUE Map scenario, 2010-2050
Global emissions (Gt CO2)
1 900
3
8 900
600
1 600
2015
4 000
6 000
2 000
2015
8 000
2050
2050
30
0
2050
2050
10 000
All other
2015
2030
Total sales (thousands)
2030
2030
2050
2015
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
2015
30
150
100
2 000
0
30
40
2015
2030
0
6 000
1 600
4 000
0
9 400 10
11 400
40
2 000
2050
150
100
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
2 200
2030
2050
0
2015
0
9 400
16 500
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
9 400
11 400
6 200
9 600
8 600
11 400
9 400
2015
2030
2 000
8 000
2030
4 000
2 8000
000
2050
6 200
4 000
2 000
6 000
10 000
India
2 000
2 000
6 000
2 000
All other
2050
2015
410000
000
2 200
2050
4 000
2030
6 000
All other
2030
0
8 000
8 000
4 000
2050
2050
10 000
10 000
2015
1 900
2030
0
2015
0
4 000
8 000
2015
Total sales (thousands)
2015
2 000
2 000
6 000
6 000 0
6 000
10 000
10
0
India
600
2020
0
50
2 000
000
8 2000
4 000
India
4 000
2 000
6 000
OECD Europe
2030
6 000
0
2050
2 000 2030
2015
2015
6 000
000
10 4000
8 000
4 000
600
100 6 200
1 900
150
2 200
4 000
8 000
50
4 000
6 000
6 000
India
All other
10 000
Total sales (thousands)
Vehicle sales must grow rapidly
2015
8 000
2 200
2012
8 000
Total sales (thousands)
Total sales (thousands)
2010
10 000
6 000
10 000
150
0
10 000
China
6 000
100
10
6 200
8 000
20
China
Total sales (thousands)
10 000
India
30
PHEV models
9 400
China
Total sales (thousands)
Number of models
30
11 400
8 000
170
3 800
6 400
3 100
8 000
10 000
Number of models offered through 2020
EV models
0
4 000
2 000
2050
10 000
8 000 2030
2015
4 000
OECD North America
0
2030
China
40
0
6 000
2 000
Total sales (thousands)
2015
Total sales (thousands)
5 900
2 100
4 700
260
400
22
000
1 300
1 900
6 400
PHEV sales
10 000
6 000
2050
150
8 600
0
2050
2030
2050
EV sales
8 000
8 000
China
OECD Pacific
19 900
2 000
2030
2015
2030
4 000
10
000
2
8 000
000
2050
10 000
170
140
0
2015
0
2050 4 000
700
4140
700
2 000
2 000
6 000
6 000
OECD Pacific
6 200
2015
150
Total sales (thousands)
4 000
140
150
0
Total sales (thousands)
8 800
2015 2050
2030
2030
2030
9 600
2 000
3 800
Total sales (thousands)
5 900
6 400
2 1003 100
8 800
4 700
0
2015
2 000
2015
6 000 0
70
0
4 000
6 000
10 000
4 000
8 000
260
2 000
150 5 900
2 000
2 000
6 000
2 000
8 000
170
2050
4 000
4 000
10 000
OECD Europe
Total sales (thousands)
2030
4 000
8 000
6 000
3 800
0
Battery costs for PHEVs and EVs must drop 2015
rapidly toward USD 300/kWh in order to bring
vehicle costs to competitive levels.
10 000
8 000
2 100
3 800
2 100
2020
2 000
150
2015
4 000
6 000
10 000
260
0
2010
Total sales (thousands)
6 000
Target cost
170
200
OECD North America
6 000
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
8 000
8 000
140
8 000
10 000
PHEV sales
Total sales (thousands)Total sales (thousands)
400
EV 000
sales
10
8 800
10 000
5 900
600
8 000
8 000
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD North America
Total sales (thousands)
Cost (USD/kWh)
800
10 000
3 800
Electric and plug-in hybridPHEV sales
vehicle indicative sales targets in
BLUE Map scenario
PHEV sales
Expected cost
260
1 000
8 800
EV sales
EV sales
OECD Pacific
10 000
9 600
Global map of regional EV/PHEV sales
10 000
52 200
OECD Europe
OECD North America
Battery costs through 2020
EV/PHEV roadmap milestones
2010
2020
2030
2040
Vehicle sales 7 million
Global market share 9%
Vehicle sales 30 million
Global market share 30%
2050
Vehicle sales 70 million
Global market share 48%
Vehicle sales 100 million
Global market share 60%
Policy framework
Adequate incentives for EV/PHEV purchase
and production in line with targets;
co-ordination of recharging infrastructure
development in key areas
EVs should become commercially viable
without significant subsidies; support should
continue for widespread expansion of
recharching infrastructure
Fast recharging options have achieved
lower cost, with batteries well suited;
support for widespread implementation
of fast recharging as needed to ensure
widespread availability
Availability of higher power/energy-dense
batteries should position policy makers to
encourage remaining segments of light-duty
vehicle markets to “go electric”, including
greater use in larger, longer-distance vehicles
Vehicles become fully commercial, batteries
reach all target specifications for cost and
durability, including additional cycling
tolerance in line with advanced batteries;
full recycling systems in place
Batteries continue to improve; introduce
a new generation of batteries that
significantly outperform lithium-ion at a
similar cost
EVs achieve superiority to internal
combustion engines in most respects,
close the gap in driving range
Common systems for vehicle-to-grid electricity
sales, fast recharge and/or battery swapping
well established
Refine codes and standards as needed;
modify to accommodate innovations in batteries, smart grid systems, etc.,
but minimise the need for reinvestments in existing systems
Expansion of recharging infrastructure to more
areas; greater use of fast recharging; fully
established vehicle-to-grid electricity systems
Completion of most recharging infrastructure
in OECD and other major economies; expand
globally as countries establish reliable, lowcarbon electricity generation systems
Ongoing recharging infrastructure and
generation system expansion and refinement
as needed; with ongoing increase in systems
and capacity to handle fast charging
Continue RD&D on advanced battery
designs moving towards demonstration and
deployment as concepts mature; incorporate
lessons learned from earlier experiences
Achieve widespread introduction of next
generation of battery, full deployment of
smart-grid systems and related technologies
Ongoing RD&D as needed;
focus on improving battery performance to
maximise vehicle driving range
Vehicles/batteries
Low- and medium-volume production, with
design optimisations to 2015,
then rapidly increase numbers of models offered
and average production volumes;
battery and other costs decline to target levels
Codes/standards
Ensure plugs and charging systems
are compatible across major regions,
including basic “smart metering” systems
for home and public recharging stations;
develop protocols for fast recharging
Recharging/electricity infrastructure
Establish home recharging and begin
major investments in street/office daytime
commercial recharging, including rapid
charging where appropriate
RD&D
Ensure vehicle/battery systems are reliable
and safe; achieve near-term technical and cost
targets, such as USD 300/kWh battery cost;
develop advanced battery concepts
and prototypes
International Energy Agency
www.iea.org/roadmaps
■ H2 hybrid fuel cell
■ Conventional diesel
■ CNG/LPG
■ Hybrid (gasoline)
ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN■ Electric
HYBRID VEHICLE
roadmap
■ Plug-in hybrid gasoline
■ Plug-in hybrid
diesel sales,
■ Conventional gasoline
Annual light-duty
vehicle
■ Diesel
hybrid 2000-2050
BLUE Map
scenario,
Passenger LDV Sales (million)
180
160
140
Diesel hybrid
120
100
CNG/LPG
H2 hybrid fuel cell
l
diese
Conventional
80
60
rid (
Conventional gasoline
20
ybr
Plug
Hyb
40
Electric
Plug
-in h
gaso
-in h
line)
id d
ybri
iese
d ga
l
solin
e
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Key findings
uu In addition to contributing significant greenhouse-gas emissions reductions,
the roadmap’s level of EV/PHEV sales will deliver substantial benefits in terms
of improved oil security, reduced urban area pollution and noise.
uu Policy support is critical, especially in two areas: ensuring vehicles become
cost-competitive and providing adequate recharging infrastructure.
uu The consumer comes first: wider use of EVs/PHEVs will require an improved
understanding of consumer needs and desires, as well as consumer
willingness to change vehicle purchase and travel behaviour.
uu Performance measurement will be needed: the IEA roadmap contains a set of
proposed metrics and targets for key attributes like driving range and battery
requirements to ensure that EVs/PHEVs achieve their potential.
uu RD&D priorities: research, development and demonstration must continue to
reduce battery costs and ensure adequate materials supply. More research is
also needed on smart grids and the vehicle-grid interface.
uu International collaboration can accelerate deployment: industry and
governments need to work together on research programmes, codes and
standards, and alignment of vehicle and infrastructure roll-out.
© OECD/IEA, 2010
uu Roadmap vision: industry and governments should attain a combined
EV/PHEV sales share of at least 50% of LDV sales worldwide by 2050.