the danish property federation market statistics – vacancy

Transcription

THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION
MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY
COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK
January 2016
WEB REPORT
Investment properties increase economic growth in Denmark
In 2016, the Danish Economic Councils expect an economic growth
of 1.1 percent. The relatively low growth rate is still a positive
indicator of a Danish economy going moderately forward, which
imply a further demand for vacant capacity within retail, office and
industry. The unemployment rate continues at a low level as the
gross unemployment rate was 4,5 percent in November 2015 and
the Danish Economic Councils expect employment to increase with
26.000 persons in 2015.
quarter and are included in the statistic. At the same time, the
statistical material has been expanded due to more participants
which can influence the total result. The new office rentals contribute to an increasing economic vacancy rate for office rentals of 0.6
percentage points compared to October 2015.
Another explanation to the increase in the economic vacancy rate
is the vacancy increase for existing office rentals in the statistics by
0.3 percentage points. The most important reason is however, that
more leases are vacant compared to the amount of new rentals in
January. Each of the effects contributes with 1.8 percentage points
increasing the vacancy rate, respectively – 1.3 percentage points decreasing the vacancy rate. Finally, there are some minor effects that
in total with the above means that the economic vacancy for office
increases with 1,0 percentage points to a total of 13.0 percent.
The availability of commercial rentals is an essential factor for economic growth as production and commerce need properties and
squaremetres. At the same time there are approximately 100.000
employed within commercial properties in Denmark. A little more
than 50 percent are employed within construction, development
and improvements while almost 45 percent are employed within
property management, rentals and maintenance. A smaller part of
the employed work with portfolio management and transactions.
In total, the share of employees within commercial properties is
higher than the group of employees within the banking sector in
Denmark. This also implies, that when the Danish economy is doing
well, more activity will lead to higher employment within commercial properties and further economic growth.
Spatial vacancy is higher than economic
vacancy rate
While the average economic vacancy rate is 9.8 percent in January
2016, spatial vacancy rate is 11.1 percent. Spatial and economic
vacancy rates for residential leases of 2.9 and 3.1 percent are
considered low. For commercial leases the spatial vacancy rate is
higher than economic vacancy rate, which means that is it typically
the cheap space that is hard to rent. Spatial vacancy for industrial
rentals show positive development as the rate decrease by 0.1 percentage points compared to last quarter and a yearly decrease of
4.2 percentage points. The spatial vacancy rate for retail is slightly
increasing with 0.2 percentage points compared to last quarter
and 0.6 percentage points compared to last year. Spatial vacancy rate for office is 14.8 percent which is higher than for both
residential, retail, and industrial rentals. As the economic growth
increases, there will be vacant office space available. In other
words according to vacancy rates it pays to construct residential
properties compared to office properties.
Slight increase in economic vacancy rate
Unfortunately, the economic growth has not meant a lower economic vacancy in Denmark during the latest quarter. Compared
to last quarter the economic vacancy rate has decreased by 0.2
percentage points for industrial and 0.4 percentage points for residential rentals. The economic vacancy rate is unchanged for retail
while there is a disappointing increase of 1.0 percentage points for
office rentals.
There are several reasons for the economic vacancy rate increase
for office rentals. A significant reason is that office rentals under
development or under construction have been finished since last
Table 1. Vacancy rates January 2016
Economic vacancy rate
Vacancy
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Office
13.0
Retail
8.0
Industry
Space vacancy rate
Annual change
(percentage
points)
Vacancy
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
1.0
0.6
14.8
0.5
0.5
0.0
-0.1
8.4
0.2
0.6
13.2
-0.2
-2.5
14.2
-0.1
-4.2
Residential
3.1
-0.4
0.5
2.9
-0.2
0.0
Total
9.8
0.1
0.2
11.1
-0.1
-0.2
Source: The Danish Property Federation.
Rem.: The vacancy rate covering all sectors also include rent and space for other commercial sectors and secondary premises.
Published by the Danish Property Federation
THE DANISH PROPERTY FEDERATION MARKET STATISTICS – VACANCY
COVERING THE PROFESSIONAL INVESTMENT PROPERTY MARKET IN DENMARK January 2016
Office
WEB REPORT
Decreasing economic vacancy in Southern
Denmark
The economic vacancy rate in Southern Denmark Region is 10.6 percent, which is 2.6
percentage points lower than October 2015 and 5.6 percentage points lower compared to January 2015. In Odense, the economic vacancy rate has decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 13.2 percent, while the spatial vacancy rate decrease is limited. The
Sealand Region also has a positive development. Here the economic vacancy rate has
dropped 2.4 percentage points and spatial vacancy rate by 3.2 percentage points.
A higher spatial vacancy in Odense and in the Sealand Region means that in average
vacant leases are cheaper than the rented. This implies that newer and well-situated
offices are rented more than older and secondary situated offices. The economic
vacancy rate has increased in and around Copenhagen and Aarhus. In Aarhus, the
economic vacancy rate increased by 1.3 percentage points the last quarter, while the
increase was 6.6. percent in Northern Sealand. This means that both economic as well
as spatial vacancy is still above national average in the Capital Region and the Mid
Jutland Region.
Retail
Unchanged economic vacancy at
national level
The national economic vacancy is unchanged compared to last quarter,
meanng that the economic vacancy rate for retail rentals remains at 8.0
percent in January 2016. Since last year there has been a decrease of 0.1
percentage points in the vacancy rate. Regionally, the economic vacancy rate
show positive developments in the Capital Region, the Sealand Region, and
the Northern Jutland Region. Within the Capital Region, Copenhagen CBD
and Other Copenhagen & Area likewise continue a positive development and
decreases with 0.2 percentage points to 1.2 and 9.1 respectively.
The Sealand Region has a vacancy rate of 12.0 corresponding to a decrease
of 0.5 percentage points since October and 0.1 percentage points since
January 2015. Both Eastern Sealand and Western & Southern Sealand show
positive tendencies regarding quarterly change and descrease by 0.3 and
0.2 percentage point respectively, compared to last quarter. The Northern
Jutland Region is also doing well and has experienced a decrease of 0.5 percentage points since last quarter and 2.8 percentage points since last year. It
is the Sealand Region which experience a decreasing spatial vacancy compared to last quarter. The rest of the regions either experience an increased og
unchanged level. The Sourthern Denmark Region and the Mid Jutland Region
both experience a slight increasing vacancy rate. The Southern Denmark
Region has an increase vacancy rate of 1.4 percentage points corresponding
to an economic vacancy rate of 6.9. Compared to last year, it is an increase
of 1.0 percentage points. The Mid Jutland Region lies a bit higher with a
vacancy rate of 7.8 based on af quarterly change of 1.1 percentage points.
Industrial
WEB REPORT
The positive development continues
There are still vacant industrial rentals throughout the country. The national
economic vacancy rate is 13.2 percent, but the economic vacancy is decreasing. Industrial rentals develop in the right direction looking at the last two
years as a whole, as can be seen in figure 1. Over the last two years there has
been a decrease of 0.6 percentage points for industrial rentals, while there is a
decrease compared to last quarter by 0.2 percentage points.
In the Capital Region there is a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to
last quarter and of 2.3 percentage points compared to last year. The economic
vacancy rate for industrial rentals in the Capital Region is a little above the national average of 14.5 percent. The Sealand Region has an economic vacancy
rate of 17.4 percent. In the Southern Denmark Region the economic vacancy
rate is 9.7 percent, which is a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to
last quarter and 6.8 percentage points compared to last year. In the Mid Jutland Region there is a slight increase in economic vacancy, but the level is still
low with an economic vacancy rate of 7.1 percent.
Residential
Still high demand
In general the vacancy rates for residential rentals are low. Compared to
October, the economic vacancy rate has decreased by 0.4 percentage points
at national level and spatial vacancy has decreased by 0.2 percentage points.
This means that the vacancy compared to rental value is 3.1 percent, while
vacancy measured in vacant squaremetres is 2.9 percent in January 2016. As
in October, the level ist still slightly increasing on an annual basis. Compared
to January 2015, the economic vacancy increased by 0.5 percentage points.
Spatial vacancy is at the same level as January 2015.
The highest quarterly decrease is in Aarhus with 1.5 percentage points, corresponding to a vacancy rate level of 3.9 percent and a total economic vacancy
rate of 4.1 percent for the Mid Jutland Region. In the Capital Region, the vacancy level is 3.2 percent, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than last quarter.
This is especially due to a decrease in Other Copenhagen & Area, where the
economic vacancy rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 2.9 percent in
January 2016. In January 2016, the Sealand Region experiences a decrease in
vacancy rate of 0.8 percentage points. The lowest vacancy on regional level is
in the Northern Jutland Region, where the vacancy rate is 1.5 percent. Within
the region, Aalborg has an economic vacancy rate of 1.2 percent.
N
Ø
V
S
WEB REPORT
Geographical
overview
Northern Jutland Region
Aalborg
Mid Jutland Region
Aarhus
Northern Seeland
Capital Region
Other Copenhagen
& area
Triangle
area
Seeland Region
Southern Denmark Region
Odense
Western and
Southern Seeland
Copenhagen CBD
Eastern Seeland
Copenhagen CBD
Christiansborg
Copenhagen CBD covers
the zip codes:
900, 1000-1559,
Tivoli
1562-1609, 1611-1614.
WEB REPORT
Table 2. Office
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
13.3
1.2
0.7
January 2016
(percent)
Capital Region total
Copenhagen, CBD
Space vacancy rate
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
15.1
0.7
0.7
January 2016
(percent)
9.0
0.1
-2.5
9.6
0.0
-2.9
Other Copenhagen
& area
14.0
1.3
1.4
15.7
0.6
1.2
Northern Seeland
24.1
6.6
6.4
24.7
6.0
6.9
Seeland Region
Odense
Mid Jutland Region
Aarhus
Other Mid Jutland
Total
8.6
0.3
-2.4
11.5
0.6
-3.2
10.6
-2.6
-5.6
14.1
-3.7
-4.9
13.2
-1.0
-0.2
18.6
-0.2
-0.3
13.8
1.1
2.9
15.9
1.0
2.6
15.1
1.3
4.0
16.7
1.3
3.6
9.0
0.5
-1.5
13.1
0.1
-0.9
10.2
0.9
2.8
11.9
0.5
2.0
13.0
1.0
0.6
14.8
0.5
0.5
Table 3. Retail
Space vacancy rate
January 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
7.5
-0.3
-0.8
Copenhagen, CBD
1.2
-0.2
-1.2
Other Copenhagen
& area
9.1
-0.2
Northern Seeland
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual
change
(percentage
points)
7.7
0.0
-0.5
1.0
-0.4
-1.3
-0.8
9.2
0.3
-0.6
Annual change
(percentage
points)
January 2016
(percent)
11.2
0.8
2.3
12.2
0.8
3.6
12.0
-0.5
-0.1
10.4
-0.3
-0.8
Eastern Seeland
10.3
-0.3
-1.5
8.2
-0.5
-0.7
Western & Southern
Sealand
16.5
-0.2
3.9
13.8
0.3
-2.0
6.9
1.4
1.0
6.7
0.8
-0.7
8.1
1.5
1.8
7.5
0.2
-0.5
7.8
1.1
3.9
10.2
1.4
6.8
5.5
1.2
0.5
5.3
0.4
0.6
Seeland Region
Triangle Area
Mid Jutland Region
Aarhus
13.8
2.2
18.6
4.7
Other Mid Jutland
8.3
-0.5
-2.8
*
10.2
0.4
1.5
*
Total
8.0
0.0
-0.1
8.4
0.2
0.6
WEB REPORT
Table 4. Industrial
January 2016
(percent)
Space vacancy rate
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
January 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
14.5
-0.4
-2.3
14.9
-0.5
-4.1
Copenhagen, CBD
14.9
3.0
-3.7
25.6
1.5
0.1
Other Copenhagen
& area
14.6
-0.9
-2.0
14.0
-0.8
-4.1
Northern Seeland
12.7
2.5
-4.7
13.8
0.6
-7.0
Seeland Region
17.4
1.8
-4.2
18.0
3.5
-17.9
9.7
-1.4
-6.8
16.5
-0.5
-6.6
Mid Jutland Region
7.1
0.7
0.1
9.4
1.0
0.4
7.8
-0.2
-6.6
8.8
-0.5
-10.3
13.2
-0.2
-2.5
14.2
-0.1
-4.2
Aarhus
Total
Tabel 5. Residential
January 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Space vacancy rate
Annual change
(percentage
points)
January 2016
(percent)
Quarterly
change
(percentage
points)
Annual change
(percentage
points)
3.2
-0.3
1.0
2.9
-0.2
0.6
Copenhagen, CBD
5.0
-0.1
0.0
4.4
-0.1
-0.2
Other Copenhagen
& area
2.9
-0.7
0.9
2.7
-0.5
0.6
Northern Seeland
2.7
1.2
1.9
2.6
1.1
1.5
4.3
-0.8
3.5
5.4
-0.8
4.2
Eastern Seeland
2.7
-0.9
2.2
2.6
-0.8
1.9
Western and Southern
Seeland
4.9
-0.8
3.9
6.3
-0.9
4.8
1.9
0.3
-0.6
1.9
0.3
-0.6
Odense
1.7
0.4
0.8
1.7
0.4
1.0
Triangle area
2.3
0.2
0.1
2.2
0.5
0.2
Other southern Denmark
1.8
0.5
-2.0
1.8
0.3
-2.2
4.1
-1.1
-2.3
3.7
-0.7
-5.2
Aarhus
3.9
-1.5
-2.2
3.2
-1.1
-1.3
Other Mid Jutland
4.9
0.5
-3.0
4.9
0.6
-16.0
1.5
0.4
0.0
1.9
0.4
0.1
Aalborg
1.2
0.4
-0.1
1.3
0.4
0.0
Other Northern Jutland
5.1
0.6
1.8
7.0
0.3
1.4
3.1
-0.4
0.5
2.9
-0.2
0.0
Seeland Region
Mid Jutland Region
Total
WEB REPORT
Figure 1. Development in vacancy rate
Percent
Percent
25,0
25
25,0
20,0
20
20,0
15,0
15
15,0
10,0
10
10,0
5,0
5
0
0,0
0,0
Jan.
Jan.Jan.
Apr.
Apr.Apr.
Jul.
Jul. Jul.
Oct.
Oct.Oct.
Jan.
Jan.Jan.
Apr.
Apr.Apr.
Jul.
Jul. Jul.
Oct.
Oct.Oct.
Jan.
Jan.Jan.
Apr.
Apr.Apr.
Jul.
Jul. Oct.
Jul.
Oct.Oct.
Jan.
Jan.Jan.
Apr.
Apr.Apr.
Jul.
Jul. Oct.
Jul.
Jan.
Oct.Oct.
Apr.
Jan.Jan.
Jul.
Apr.Apr.
Jul. Oct.
Jul.
Jan.
Oct.Oct.
Apr.
Jan.Jan.
Jul.
Apr.Apr.
Oct.
Jul. Jul.
Jan.
Oct.Oct.
Apr.
Jan.Jan.
Jul.
Apr.Apr.
Oct.
Jul. Jan.
Jul.
Oct.Oct.
Apr.
Jan.Jan.
Jul.
Apr.Apr.
Oct.
Jul. Jan.
Jul.
Oct.Oct.
Apr.
Jan.Jan.
Jul.
Oct.
Apr.Apr.
Jan.
Jul. Jul.
Apr.
Oct.Oct.
Jul.
Jan.Jan.
Oct.
Apr.Apr.
Jan.
Jul. Jul.
Apr.
Oct.Oct.
Jul.
Jan.Jan.
Oct.
Apr.Apr.
Jan.
Jul. Jul.
Apr.
Oct.Oct.
Jul.
Jan.Jan.
Oct.
Apr.Apr.
Jan.
Jul.tOct.
tOct.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan.Oct.
Jul.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.Jan.
Oct.
Apr.
Jul.Apr.
Apr.
Jan.
Jul.
Apr.
Oct.
Oct.
Jul.Apr.
Jul.
Jul.
Jan.Jan.
Oct.
Jul.
Oct.
Oct.
Apr.Oct.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.Jan.
Jul.Jan.
Apr.
Jul.
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Oct.Apr.
Jul.
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Jul.Apr.
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Oct.
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Jul.
Oct.
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Apr.Oct.
Apr.
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Jan.
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Jul.Jan.
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Oct.Apr.
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5,0
2000
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2000
2001
2002
2003
2003
2003
Oﬃce
Oﬃce
2004
2004
2004
20052005
20062006
2005
Retail
Retail
2006
20072007
2007
2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 20122013 20132014
2011
2012
2013
2010
2008
2009
Industrial
Residential
Total
Industrial
Residential
2014
2015
2014
2015
2015
Total
Source: The Danish Property Federation and own calculations based on data from IPD Danish Property Index and Oline-ED statistics.
Rem.: Data from January 2014 and forward is from the Danish Property Federation. From 2001 to 2013, data from IPD Danish
Property Index has been processed based on differences in level in 2014. In year 2000, office data from Oline-ED Statistics has
been included. Methods are not identical, which is why tere is a gap between October 2013 and January 2014. From January
2014, data is quarterly and before this data is annual. From 2014 there is a larger base of data.
WEB REPORT
About the
Market Statistics
This web report is published on 10 February 2016. Next planned publishing is mid May 2016.
The report has been based on data from: Aage Larsens Boligudlejning, Aberdeen Asset Management,
Alm. Brand, AP Pension, ATP, Bevica Fonden, Carlsbergfondet, CEJ Ejendomsadministration, Coller Capital,
CS Pensionsfond, C.W. Obel Ejendomme, DADES, Danica, Dansk Sygeplejeråd, Danske Bank, DATEA, DEAS,
DIP, Ejendomsselskaberne Grønløkkevej 10, Frederiksberg Fonden, Færchfonden, Grosserer Schiellerup
og Hustrus Fonde, Gudbjørg og Ejnar Honorés Fond, Højgaard Ejendomme, Industriens Pension, Jammerbugt Kommune, Jeudan, Jorcks Ejendomsselskab, JØP, Kramers Legat, LB Forsikring, Lægernes Pensionskasse, Lærernes Pension, Majbritt Birch Ejendomsadministration, Niam, Nordea Ejendomme, Nordea Liv
og Pension, North Property Asset Management, NREP, PBU, PenSam, PensionDanmark, Pensionskassen for
Farmakonomer, PFA, PKA, Sampension, SEB, SPG Omsorg DK1, Steen & Strøm, Taurus Ejendomsadministration, TDC Pensionskasse, Topdanmark, Tryg, Unipension, Valad and 2 + 3 Ejendomme.
The portfolios have approx. 60.000 rentals corresponding to an annual lease value of DKK 15.7 bn and
13.4 m m2. In order to compare, the statistical base in January 2015 had an annual lease value of DKK
12.0 bn and 9.7 m m2.
The base of the economic vacancy is the actual rent. The economic vacancy is defined as: Sum of actual
rent in all vacant leases divided with the sum of actual rent i both occupied and vacant rentals.
The Market Statistics is based on quarterly processed property data for rentals and vacancies within the
period in question. This web report has been closed per 31 December 2015 and is called January 2016.
Quarterly change is from January 2016 (closed per 31 December 2015) compared to October 2015
(closed per 30 September 2015). Aanual change is from January 2016 (closed per 31 January 2015)
compared to January 2015 (closed per 31 January 2014).
We have chosen not to publish data, where the data is not suffiecient to give valid and representative
results or combinations if only one or very few portfolios are represented.
For further information regarding this web report, please contact Chief Economist Morten Marott Larsen,
mml@ejendomsforeningen.dk, phone +45 28 45 56 51.

the danish property federation market statistics – vacancy

Transcription

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the danish property federation market statistics – vacancy