The Sailing Market 2016

Transcription

State of the Industry • February 2016
1
State of the Industry
We are the sailing division of the Bonnier Marine Group, providing
multi-channel marketing solutions for the sailing industry.
2
We invest in this annual study of the sailboat business in North
America as a service to the industry.
3
Agenda
◙ 2015 Bareboat Charter Industry Study
◙ 2015 Brokerage Data
◙ 2015 Sailing Participation Data – NEW!
◙ Marketing Intel/Consumer Trends
◙ 2015 North American Import Sailboat Report
◙ 2015 North American Sailing Industry Study
4
Without the support and the
participation of over 230 boat builders,
importers and charter companies -- we
would have no data to share, no way to
benchmark our industry. Thank you all!
5
2016 Bareboat Charter Industry Study
20th Annual Survey
6
2015 Bareboat Charter Study
Bareboat Charter Industry Study – 19 Annual Survey
Methodology
◙ Study conducted by independent researcher:
Diane Chase, Market Research Associates
◙ Charter results reflect September 2014- August 2015
◙ Mail/Phone/Email Survey
– 55 active Bareboat Charter companies from our database
– 80% response rate including all market leaders
7
Source: 2015 Bareboat Charter Industry Study
Bareboat Chartering Basics
Number of Boats
2015
2,794
2014
2,889
2013
2,839
2012
3,122
2011
2,700
95 boats out of
service since
2014
► World wide charter fleet decreases slightly, down 95 boats or -3%
► Charter companies report 1142 multihulls, representing 41% of the fleet
8
Bareboat Chartering Up Again, + 7% in Weeks
26,442
20,285
2009
21,495
19,029
17,869
18,626
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
►Still Showing Growth Since 2011, But at a Slower Pace
9
28,206
2015
Seasons Share In the Gains Equally
2012
2013
Fall/Winter 41%
Fall
2014
2015
Spring/Summer 59%
Winter
Spring
► All seasons see increased business, no major shifts in seasonality
10
Summer
North American Sailors Choose The Caribbean and Domestic
Destinations at the Expense of Mediterranean and Other Locations
(000) Weeks
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
’14-’15
% Chg
Bahamas/
Caribbean
10.9
12.0
15.0
19.1
20.8
+9%
USA/Canada
6.1
5.4
4.3
4.5
4.9
+9%
Med & Other
.9
1.2
2.2
2.8
2.4
-14%
► Caribbean destinations enjoy 9% increase in charter weeks
► The Med and Other Destinations Lose Ground
11
Bareboat Charter Weeks Year over Year by Region
2013
2014
2015
Northeast/other North America
419
330
343
Chesapeake & NC
535
619
727
Great & Inland Lakes
776
542
554
Pacific NW & CA
2,325
2,639
2,978
FL & Gulf Coast
231
381
348
Pacific Islands/Australia/New Zealand/Indian
Ocean
669
721
839
Bahamas
1,157
1,272
1,401
Virgin Islands & PR
12,301
15,556
16,649
675
1,298
1,428
Windward Islands
1,026
1,267
1,398
Mediterranean
1,030
1,318
1,055
Mexico/Other
351
499
486
Leeward Islands
12
Estimated Value of Bareboat Charter Fees for 2015 Up 7%
Estimated $111.4 million dollars in basic
bareboat charter fees in 2015 vs. $104 million
xxxxx
Weeks x $3,500
= $54,000,000
in 2014 (not
including
the Mount
Gay!)
 # of Charter Weeks x Average Price $3950 Week = 2015 Market Value
13
Key Charter Market Findings
◙ Bareboat chartering reports its 5th straight year of growth. Charter
weeks out of the North American source market total 28,206, up 7%
over 2014.
◙ Charter fleets down slightly, losing 93 boats. Fewer boats and growth
of weeks means better utilization. “There is no slow season any more.”
◙ Multihulls are now reported to be 41% of the bareboat charter fleets.
◙ North American destinations gained market share as US consumers
show concerns about safety abroad.
◙ The Caribbean continues to be the favorite destination for North
American sailors, taking 74% of bareboat weeks
◙ Estimated base bareboat fees in 2015 topped $111 million, reflecting
charter week gains, and increasing prices due to more cats in the
fleets.
14
Sailboat
Brokerage
Data
2015 Sailboat
Brokerage
Data
15
Sailboat Brokerage Data
Sailboat Brokerage Sales 2015
◙ Data provided by YachtWorld, compiled from reports of YachtWorld
member brokerages in SoldBoats.com.
◙ US sales data for calendar years 2012 through 2015.
◙ Our thanks to YachtWorld and Dominion Marine Media.
16
2015 Sailboat Brokerage Sales in the US, in Units
<26’
26’-35’
36’-45’
46’-55’
56’-79’
80’+
Total
2015
497
2452
2030
335
49
4
5367
2014
516
2513
2074
340
54
6
5503
2013
524
2721
2111
335
52
9
5752
2012
595
2603
1924
279
51
4
5456
Change
2015 2014
-4%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-9%
-33%
-2%
Unit brokerage sales down slightly across the board, most
notable dips for segments over 56’. 4 year trend shows
stability in the range of 5400-5500 units annually.
17
Source: YachtWorld
2015 Sailboat Brokerage Sales in the US, Average # Days to Sale
<26’
26’-35’
36’-45’
46’-55’
56’-79’
80’+
All Sizes
2015
295
283
307
422
656
1022
306
2014
258
269
327
419
663
699
304
2013
233
261
317
389
666
313
290
2012
249
270
313
467
650
873
297
+15%
+5%
-6%
+1%
-1%
+46%
+1%
Change
2015 2014
Average time on the market increased across the board except
for the mid range, 36’-45’ boats
18
Source: YachtWorld
2015 Sailboat Brokerage Sales, Average Value of Units Sold
2013
2014
2015
% Change
YoY
<26’
$13,429
$14,575
$14,468
-1%
26’-35’
$38,242
$39,363
$38,445
-2%
36’-45’
$107,524
$108,850
$102,355
-6%
46’-55’
$227,458
$232,978
$213,175
-8%
56’-79’
$413,065
$397,275
$550,369
+40%
80’+
$4,757,741
$5,140,956
$2,441,865
-52%
Total
$83,201
$84,264
$77,769
-8%
 Brokerage boats lose some ground in terms of average value, except
for the 56’-79’ size segment. Overall decline in average value driven
largely by huge price drop in 80’+ units.
19
Source: YachtWorld
2015 Sailboat Brokerage Market vs. Total Brokerage Market
2012
2013
2014
2015
Sailboats Sold
5,456
5,752
5,503
5,367
All Boats Sold
29,817
31,652
30,191
30,013
Sailboats Days
on Market
297
290
304
306
All Boats Days
On Market
262
260
269
263
Sailboats consistently represent about 18% of the brokerage units
sold annually in the US, and they are generally on the market 35-40
days longer than the national average.
20
Source: YachtWorld
Key 2015 Sailboat Brokerage Data Findings
◙ Unit sales were flat, off 2% to 5367 units from 5503 in 2014.
◙ Average # days on the market increased 1%, from 304 days in 2014
up to 306 days in 2015.
◙ The average sale price for all brokerage sailboats was off 8% in
2015, driven by a 52% drop in the value of boats over 80’.
◙ Sailboats represent about 18% of all brokerage boats sold in the
US, averaging 5400-5500 units per year vs. the average annual
total of 30,000 units per year.
◙ Sailboats are on the market longer than the average of all
brokerage boats, 35-40 days longer.
21
Source: YachtWorld
Sailing Participation
Sailing Participation Data
◙ Source: SFIA, Sports & Fitness Industry Association
◙ SFIA produces about 100 annual reports on sports
participation, everything from cheerleading to wrestling. They
track several water sports, including fishing, diving, windsurfing,
wakeboarding etc.
◙ Only national data available on sailing participation.
◙ These figures are from their 2015 report.
23
Sailing Participation Data
◙ 3,924,000 sailing participants in the US.
(sailed 1+ times per year)
◙ 2,699,000 “casual” sailing participants
(sailed 1-7 times per year)
◙ 1,225,000 “core” sailing participants
(sailed 8+ times per year)
Source: SFIA Sailing Sports Participation Report
24
Sailing Participation Trends
◙ 3,924,000 total sailing participants 2014
◙ 1,225,000 “core” sailing participants 2014
25
Sailing Participation Trends (in 000’s)
4000
3000
2000
Core Participants
1000
All Participants
0
2012
2013
26
2014
Sailing Participation By Region
Region
Total Sailors
Core Sailors
New England
332000
212000
123000
Middle Atlantic
729000
542000
170000
East North Central
515000
316000
209000
West North Central
87000
64000
22000
South Atlantic
833000
552000
292000
East South Central
134000
77000
58000
West South Central
339000
238000
102000
Mountain
204000
153000
47000
Pacific
751000
546000
202000
27
Casual Sailors
Sailing Participation By Region (in 000’s)
28
Marketing Intel
29
Marketing Intel and Trends
2016 North American Consumer Trends
30
Source: Mintel
Outlook for 2016 – Affluents
Affluents still want to spend more time with
family
 They still want to indulge in special
vacations or experiences
Luxury interests are trending up, desire to
splurge on themselves and their loved ones
Affluent goals have broadened, they still
want personal growth, to do more, do better,
live better
“Divergent Optimism” - Their primary drive is
looking for personal satisfaction despite an
uncertain world.
31
Source: The IPSOS Mendelsohn Affluent Survey
North American Import Sailboat Report
15th Annual Survey
32
North American Import Sailboat Report – 15th Annual Survey
Survey of Imported Sailboats to North America
Mail / Phone /
Email Survey
• Data reported for 70 active importers
• 88 % participation
• Major importers included in results
* Also includes importers who did not import any sailboats in 2015 but reported importing sailboats in previous years
33
Source: 2015 North American Import Sailboat Report
Sailboat Builders Worldwide Aim at the US Market
2015 IMPORTS CAME FROM 16+ COUNTRIES
34
France
Denmark
Argentina
Taiwan
Finland
South Africa
Germany
Italy
Sweden
China
United Kingdom
Australia
Poland
Dubai
Turkey
Slovenia
Imports Declined in 2015, Off Slightly 6%
2013
2014
2015
Unit
Change
2015 vs.
2014
Under 20’
241
613
517
-96
-16%
20’- 35’
101
96
122
+26
+27%
36’- 45’
93
95
132
+37
+39%
46’ or more
109
143
117
-26
-18%
Total
Imports
544
947
888
-59
-6%
Units
35
% Change
2015 vs.
2014
Imports Over 20’ Into North America Up 11% in 2015
Imported Sailboats 20 feet and over
358
303
240
190
2008
2009
2010
236
2011
334
+37 units
371
195
2012
2013
2014
2015
► After a 10% increase in 2014, importers rack up another 11% gain in 2015
36
Over 20’, Mid Size and Large Boats Lead The Way
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Unit
Change
vs. ’13
20’- 35’
55
32
101
96
122
+26
36’- 45’
109
89
93
95
132
+37
46’ -59’
66
72
102
134
98
-26
60’+
6
2
7
9
19
+10
Units
Correction in the 46’-59’ segment after a strong showing in 2014
37
Larger Multihulls Down 2015 vs. 2014, Off 14%
Imported Multihulls 20 feet and over, Units
- 14 Units
113
105
101
99
85
68
63
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
► Multihulls Represented 16% of All Imports in 2015
38
2014
2015
Importers, Like Domestic Builders, Had Projected
Strong Growth in 2015, +25%
2014
Actual
2015
Forecast
2015
Actual
Under 20’
553
766
517
20' - 35'
96
134
122
36‘ - 45’
95
138
132
46' or more
143
145
117
Total
947
1183
888
Importers Missed Their Forecast By 25%
39
Importers Forecast Strong Growth in 2016, Projecting +24%
40
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
Under 20’
553
517
684
20' - 35'
96
122
143
36‘ - 45’
95
132
158
46' or more
143
117
116
Total
947
888
1101
2015 Import Study Observations
Imports overall were down 59 units to 888 units in 2015 for a
modest decline of 6%.
Imports under 20’ drove the decline, off 16%.
Imports over 20’ were up 11%.
Imported multihulls were down 14 units and 14%. Multihulls
accounted for 16% of all imports in 2015.
Importers missed their 2015 forecasts by 25%.
 Importers are once again projecting a strong year in 2016, looking
for 24% gains.
41
North American Sailing Industry Study
28th Annual Survey
42
Methodology & History
◙ Mail/Phone/Email Survey
– 1988 – 1993
International Marine Industries
– 1994 – 1997
The Sailing Company, New York Times
Magazine Group
– 1998 to 2012
The Sailing Company, Rick Walter
Market Research Associates
– 2013 to present
The Sailing Company, Diane Chase,
Market Research Consulting
◙ 92 out of 105 North American builders that were contacted
responded and provided their production data; including market
leaders; 88% response rate
43
Source: 2015 North American Sailing Industry Study
# of Active North American Sailboat Builders
139
131
113
2007
2009
2011
104
97
99
92
2012
2013
2014
2015
 The market continues to take a toll on domestic sailboat builders.
44
Number of Fulltime Employees Building Sailboats
Takes A Major Hit, Off 25% in 2015
3,000
1,950
2007
2009
1,569
2011
1,531
1,396
1,432
2012
2013
2014
Company Size in 2015:
• 51% have 10 or less employees
• 70% have less than 25 employees
45
1,073
2015
Domestic Sailboat Production Finds a New Low –
Off 27% in Units
11,427
7,076
2008
2009
6,492
2010
6,321
2011
6,963
2012
6,078
2013
7,115
5,226
2014
► Total North American production decreases by 1889 sailboats
46
2015
Once Again, Sailboats Under 20’ Swing The Market – They Led
The Rebound in 2014 and They Cause The Crash in 2015
2014
‘13-’14
%
Change
2014
2015
‘14-’15
%
Change
1,150
1,483
+29%
1,483
1,438
-3%
12' - 19'
3,764
4,792
+27%
4,792
3,142
-34%
Boats under
20’
4,914
6,275
+28%
6,275
4,580
-27%
Small
Sailboats
2013
11‘ and
under
Sailboats Under 20’ Make Up 88% of The Market, the same as in 2014
47
Sailboats Over 20’ Are Off 23% in 2015,
Following A 28% Hit in 2014
Sailboats 20 feet and over
- 194 units
2,267
1,021
2008
2009
1,163
2010
1,043
2011
1,086
2012
1,164
840
2013
2014
646
2015
 We can’t climb back up to the 1000 unit threshold after holding there for 5
years in 2009-2013
48
Breaking Out The Segments Over 20’
49
Sailboats
Over 20’
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
’13-’14 %
Change
20’-29’
521
422
496
637
385
283
-26%
30’-35’
193
215
204
167
138
141
+2%
36’-40’
256
273
184
178
202
108
-46%
41’-45’
104
75
154
146
111
97
-13%
46’-59’
81
52
41
28
18
10
-44%
Boats 60’+
8
7
7
8
5
7
+40%
Combining North American Production with Imports
in the Heart of the Market, 30’-59’
Sailboats
30’ – 59’
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Change
2015 vs.
2014
North
American
615
583
519
469
215
-54%
Imports
204
172
230
276
230
-17%
Total
819
755
749
745
445
-40%
50
Combined Domestic Production and Imports, 30’ to 59’
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Imports
Domestic
2008
2010
2012
2014
2015
 For the first time imports outsell domestic built boats in units in the
heart of the market – 230 imports vs. 215 domestic.
51
Domestic Multihull Production Improves –
At Least One Bright Spot!
Multihulls
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
’14-’15
% Chg
Under 30’
1,139
1,210
1,177
990
1010
+2%
Over 30’
42
18
49
21
36
+71%
1,181
1,228
1,226
1,011
1,046
+3%
Total
 Multihulls represented 20% of overall domestic production in 2015 - one in
five sailboats built in North America was a multihull
52
Estimated Value of 2015 North American Sailboat Production is
$182 Million, Down 26% From 2014
Category
Est. Value
11 feet or under
# of Boats
$ Millions
$3,900
1,438
$5.6
12’ - 19’
$11,500
3,142
$36.1
20’- 29’
$55,000
283
$15.6
30’ - 35’
$215,000
141
$30.3
36’ - 40’
$299,000
108
$32.3
41’ - 45’
$450,000
97
$43.7
$1,100,000
17
$18.7
46’ or more
Estimated Retail Value Decreases Due to Decline in Larger Boats
53
North American Builders Predicted Solid Gains in 2015, But The
Reality Was Very Different
2015
Forecast
Predicted
Increase
vs. 2014
2015
Actual
Actual
Change
vs. 2014
0' - 19'
7,337
+17%
4,580
-27%
20' - 35'
696
+38%
424
-19%
36' or more
339
-
222
-34%
8,372
+18%
5,226
-27%
Total
Smallest swing in large boats over 36’
54
North American Builders Are Once Again Optimistic About Next
Year, But More Cautiously So 2015 Actual
2016
Forecast
Projected
Change
0' - 19'
4,580
4,964
+8%
20' - 35'
424
517
+22%
36' or more
222
239
+8%
5,226
5,720
+9%
Total
55
Study Observations
◙ North American sailboat production was off 27% in 2015, hitting a
new baseline of 5,226 units.
◙ Small boats under 20’ drove the decline, off 27% and nearly 1700
units.
◙ Boats over 20’ also took a significant hit, off 23% following a 28%
decline in 2014.
◙ There were two size segments which posted gains in 2015. Boats
30-35 feet were up 2%, and boats over 60’ were up 40% on the
strength of two additional units.
56
Study Observations
◙ Multihulls were another bright spot in 2015, gaining 3% in unit
production and once again comprising 20% of domestic sailboat
production.
◙ The estimated retail value of sailboats produced in North America
followed the unit decline and was down 26% to $184 million in 2015.
◙ North American sailboat builders had been very bullish on 2015,
predicting an +18% growth in 2015. The sobering reality of a 27%
decline has encouraged much more cautious optimism for 2016 –
where they predict a more moderate increase of 9%.
57
Looking to 2016
Where are We Headed?
2016 Sailing Outlook
Challenges
◙ Presidential election
gives consumers the
jitters.
◙ Stock market
sputters in 4th Q
2015 and 1st Q
2016.
◙ Global terrorism,
ISIS, refugee crisis.
Opportunities
◙ Positive economic
fundamentals
◙ Consumer confidence
near record highs
◙ Affluent trends and
mindsets favorable for
sailing
◙ Olympics, and the 2017
America’s Cup will keep
sailing on the front page
If we can sustain the market and work together to
grow the sailing lifestyle there are positive trends
toward a bigger and better future!
59
For More Information Contact:
Sally Helme
Cruising World & Sailing World
55 Hammarlund Way
Middletown, RI 02842
401-845-4405
sally.helme@bonniercorp.com
60
State of the Industry • February 2016
61

The Sailing Market 2016

Transcription

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