Securities through Triad Advisors, Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory

Securities through Triad Advisors, Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services through Ballentine Capital
Advisors, Inc. Triad Advisors and Ballentine Capital Advisors are not affiliated entities.
AGENDA
Historical Perspective on Investing and
Election Cycles
ELECTION YEARS
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Wilson
Coolidge
Coolidge
Hoover
Roosevelt
Roosevelt
Roosevelt
Truman
Truman
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Johnson
Johnson
Nixon
Ford
Carter
Reagan
Reagan
Bush Sr.
Clinton
Clinton
Bush Jr
Bush Jr.
-32.9%
+26.2%
+48.2%
-23.1%
+26.1%
-12.7%
+12.1%
-2.1%
+8.4%
+2.3%
-9.3%
+14.6%
+4.3%
+14.6%
+17.9%
+14.9%
-3.7%
+11.9%
+4.2%
+26.0%
-6.2%
+3.2%
-33.8%
66.7%
63.3%
Democrat
Republican
All returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Dow Jones Industrial Average is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Charts are for illustrative purposes only. SOURCE: Yahoo Finance, Forbes
TRENDS
Which Year of a president’s term is best for investing?
S&P 500 total returns 1926-2011. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The S&P 500 is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Charts are for illustrative purposes only. SOURCE: Source: Shiller S&P 500 Historical Total Return, 2012
TRENDS
Average S&P 500 total annual returns during an initial election year.
18.8%
-2.7%
Average S&P 500 total annual returns during a re-election year.
14.5%
10.6%
S&P 500 total returns 1926-2010. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The S&P 500 is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Charts are for illustrative purposes only. SOURCE: Global Financial Data, Inc.
TUNE OUT POLITICS
Growth of a hypothetical $10,000 investment made at the beginning of an election year.
Each 10-year period begins on January 1st of the first year shown and ends on December 31 of the final year shown. For example, the first period listed (1936-1945) covers
1/1/36 through 12/31/45. All returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. S&P 500 index is unmanaged and cannot be invested into
directly. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. SOURCE: Yahoo Finance.
HEADWINDS – ELECTION YEAR
Source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Gallup Inc., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Stock market returns are price only and calculated from election date to election date from11/5/40 to 11/4/08. Data are as of 6/30/12.
TUNE OUT POLITICS
The S&P 500 Index is a composite of the largest 500 companies in the United States. The index is unmanaged and unavailable for direct investment. Logarithmic
transformation. Calculation assumes reinvestment of dividends.
INDEX PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Source: Shiller S&P 500 Historical Total Return, 2012
The Dalbar
1
Study
S&P 500
Investor Return
1
Dalbar Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior Study for the period January 1, 1992 – December 31, 2011
7.81%
3.49%
HOW WE HELP
Help you diversify across
asset classes and set
realistic expectations for
performance.
Communicate with you
regularly and educate you
about factors that could
affect your financial future.
Encourage you to think longterm, tune out the noise, and
avoid knee-jerk reactions.
Monitor your portfolio and
recommend changes over
time.